FG Advice On Finding WR's Before Their Time (1 Viewer)

[SaintsInDome2006]

I was looking for an article by one of the FG staff wherein he explained what his theory was for identifying rising WR's before they blew up, i.e. WR's to grab, add, pick up off the waiver wire before it was too late.

It involved looking at targets, but he also looked at a few other factors.

Anyway, I can't find the article, but I wonder what others think along those lines or if they can find the article itself.

Is targets enough?

Is targets in the last 2-3 weeks enough?

How do you sort the garbage from the treasure?

Thanks.

 

[dagwood]

I was looking for an article by one of the FG staff wherein he explained what his theory was for identifying rising WR's before they blew up, i.e. WR's to grab, add, pick up off the waiver wire before it was too late.It involved looking at targets, but he also looked at a few other factors.Anyway, I can't find the article, but I wonder what others think along those lines or if they can find the article itself.Is targets enough?Is targets in the last 2-3 weeks enough?How do you sort the garbage from the treasure?Thanks.

Watch game film if you want to do it yourselfSubscribe to FBG and look at the Forward 250 list if you want someone else to do the heavy lifting

 

[harryhood]

I take the last 3 weeks worth of targets then its all about opportunity in my eyes. Look at guys who may have started out slow and then started to come on weeks 3-5. QB play is another big thing, and I always make sure they are starting in 2 WR sets.

Any team WR3 can "have a shot" due to injury, but that is just a lotto ticket. Guys who are playing in 2 WR sets, and getting targets, those are the ones I try to get.

 

[mbuehner]

Yards per reception is a great stat.

 

[GManiac]

This all depends a lot on what you are aiming for. Short term or long term.

I find it far more effective to look at a players physical tools, mental makeup, and pure receiving skills (catching, jumping, running etc..) in determining what players will break out long term. For example I held on to Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson for a good 2 years in my dynasty leagues when no one would even take them in a trade by the end of year 2 of their careers. I also traded for Roddy White 2 games before his breakout. The whole time having a very good feeling that eventually they would break out. Comparatively, I traded away Ted Ginn and Donnie Avery shortly after drafting them. Having an idea that they would not be as successful as their (at the time) current value. Currently I drafted Aurrelius Benn and traded for Demaryius Thomas (who was drafted at 1.4 in 1 of my dynasties rookie drafts) before the season kicked off. I will not trade Demaryius Thomas in a dynasty league. I think Benn has the talent, but to me he is trade bait. Hoping to unload him, but he could surprise me.

What I am saying is my track record in collecting talented WR in dynasty is very good. To do this I don't really bother with any of that stuff you mentioned at the start of this thread. All I really do is look at measureables, read articles about their character, habits, makeup and watch video of them actually playing. What I am looking for is hard to describe, but I am assuming it is the same things most scouts look at when they are scouting.

For short term however, I think those watching targets and playing time can be helpful, but mostly in redrafts. In any long term league I wouldn't bother and always use the same criteria you would use when deciphering prospects during a rookie draft.

Even in redrafts though, if you have to choose between a player getting a few more targets per week early in the season and an uber talented rookie who seems to be working his way up the depth chart, I would always choose the latter. Simply because they probably have a higher upside.

Some things to look for when watching videos and looking for players.

1) Their bio statistics. Height, weight compared to speed and quickness.

1A) The players receiving skills. How sure his hands are and the style in which he catches. Can he go out and just grab the ball or does he need to wait for it. The latter is a negative. How does he run, can he make sharp cuts and mislead DBs. How well he can jump and how good his vision is. Also, how well he blocks. Least of all I worry about route running. I think this is somthing overblown at times as route running is very very important, but it is also something I think that is more easily learned than the other traits which most of require some natural talent of.

2) In plays where they are successful, did they make it happen or did the play unfold only because of good blocking.

3) Not if a player has off the field issues, but what kind of off the field issues. I would much rather choose a player who was involved in a gunfight

at a bar but takes his football seriously, than a player who never causes trouble but is either lazy or not dedicated to getting better.

Troubled Wideouts are often successful wideouts but those with little to no passion will almost never work out (This rule goes for almost any position IMO in any sport or walk of life).

4) Does the team they are playing for have the ability or knowledge to use this player to his potential. Not all opportunity is equal. Talent usually wins out, but talent can also be snuffed out and oppressed. Always be wary.

 

[videoguy505]

FG staff? Check Herman's kicker thread.

 

[ckl81]

Well, what I used to do is look at situations where you have at least one older starting WR, and then a raw prospect sitting behind them, which the team is high on. Typically these guys come out of smaller schools, and have good measurables, drafted in the first few rounds of the draft. It helps to read the team message boards for a pulse on those guys, to see if they'll be able to make it or not. A lot of times people forget about these types of guys, especially if they are injured early on in their careers. Back when my dynasty league started up, the guys I came across were:

Some that panned out:

Brandon Marshall, drafted in the 4th round from UCF, sitting behind Rod Smith at the end of his career, and Javon Walker (didn't think he would fall off a cliff though). Once Rod Smith retired, and Cutler started looking pretty promising, I thought I had a 10-year guy in place; of course we all know what happened.

Vincent Jackson, drafted in the 2nd round in 2005 from Northern Colorado. He was stuck behind an aging McCardell and Eric Parker/Reche Caldwell. He was continually injured his first few seasons, but you could tell that the potential was there. (Once he started to take off, I thought I had another gold mine, but now with the holdout, it's looking like that's not happening)

Ones that didn't pan out:

Patrick Crayton, drafted in 7th round in 2004, behind Keyshawn/TO and Terry Glenn. I thought he'd be the one to step up after Glenn left, and I remember the buzz being pretty good about him, but he never turned the corner.

Robert Meachem, first rounder in 2007, and I think was injured the whole first season. Didn't do much his second season either, but last year had some success.

This may be WR 101 for a lot of people, but I thought it was a helpful way to think about whose number might be next.