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Footballguys Playoff Challenge - $35 Per Team - $100,000 Grand Prize (1 Viewer)

matuski said:
Sold out it seems.
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Yes. It always goes quick to close. 

It's a challenge picking the right number. We increased the entries and prize pool significantly this year and early on, I was worried we'd gone too big. It's painful if we don't sell out as the prize pool has to be guaranteed from the start. But this worked out fine.

 
19 entries. 4 for the $500k. We'll see. I think I am sweating Patriots Bills more than the rest. I do have Pats D in most lineups though. If Bills lose then a lot of teams lose equity with Diggs/Singletary/Allen. Like me.

 
barackdhouse said:
19 entries. 4 for the $500k. We'll see. I think I am sweating Patriots Bills more than the rest. I do have Pats D in most lineups though. If Bills lose then a lot of teams lose equity with Diggs/Singletary/Allen. Like me.
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I am on the same boat, all 3 of my 500K entries are 2 Pats DST and 1K. All 3 have no Eagles plays.

I am struggling with the Cards vs Rams. 

 
barackdhouse said:
19 entries. 4 for the $500k. We'll see. I think I am sweating Patriots Bills more than the rest. I do have Pats D in most lineups though. If Bills lose then a lot of teams lose equity with Diggs/Singletary/Allen. Like me.
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Good luck! I'd love for someone from the Shark Pool to win these.

 
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I based my lineups off my playoff landscape. I have the Rams going to the SB, but for the sake of this contest I am not sure that any of the main chalk plays for either the Bengals, Bills, Cowboys or Bucs are bad. The main thing is can you survive WC weekend with the right outcomes? And I have both 1 seeds losing but does that matter? If I'm wrong, I have 100% ownership of Adams and either Henry/AJ Brown. 

 
candian fantasy guy said:
I am on the same boat, all 3 of my 500K entries are 2 Pats DST and 1K. All 3 have no Eagles plays.

I am struggling with the Cards vs Rams. 
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Didn't go nearly as big as either of you. One 200 and 2 35s. I don't have any Eagles either. My 200 has Allen at QB so I skipped the Pats completely. I have the NE D in both of the 35s

 
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Harry Frogfish said:
That's not what VegasInsider says.  Where do you get your info?

LINK
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I have a friend who lives in Vegas and asked me if I wanted any action on the Niners, and told me the lines (+3.5 & O49.5) right when they opened.

You can believe me or don’t. I know what my ticket says. :shrug:  
 

ETA: on the very link you sent, Bet MGM says it opened at 3.5 

:rolleyes:  

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I have a friend who lives in Vegas and asked me if I wanted any action on the Niners, and told me the lines (+3.5 & O49.5) right when they opened.

You can believe me or don’t. I know what my ticket says. :shrug:  
 

ETA: on the very link you sent, Bet MGM says it opened at 3.5 

:rolleyes:  
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Wrong, that's BetMGM's CURRENT line.  If you actually read the link correctly, you'd see the OPENING line on the far left, which was at 3.

Sorry, but I'll take that info over your "friend".  He got a good line, happy for you, but that is not to say it opened up LITERALLY all over Vegas at 3 1/2.

You stated this, "Literally, ALL of Vegas", that is what the line opened at".  I was simply wondering what made you say that, exactly?

Then I've shown you evidence to the contrary and, after reading it incorrectly, your fall back is "that's what my ticket says!".  Well, your ticket isn't indicative of EVERY sportsbook in Vegas, now is it? 

I was just asking a simple question, no need to get so defensive.  Yet all you've come up with is some friend + not reading a link I gave you correctly.  And you're the one rolling your eyes?  Please.

 
Harry Frogfish said:
Wrong, that's BetMGM's CURRENT line.  If you actually read the link correctly, you'd see the OPENING line on the far left, which was at 3.

Sorry, but I'll take that info over your "friend".  He got a good line, happy for you, but that is not to say it opened up LITERALLY all over Vegas at 3 1/2.

You stated this, "Literally, ALL of Vegas", that is what the line opened at".  I was simply wondering what made you say that, exactly?

Then I've shown you evidence to the contrary and, after reading it incorrectly, your fall back is "that's what my ticket says!".  Well, your ticket isn't indicative of EVERY sportsbook in Vegas, now is it? 

I was just asking a simple question, no need to get so defensive.  Yet all you've come up with is some friend + not reading a link I gave you correctly.  And you're the one rolling your eyes?  Please.
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Ok, onto ignore you go. You’re a constant agitator on this forum & I should have known better than to even respond. 
:rolleyes:  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Ok, onto ignore you go. You’re a constant agitator on this forum & I should have known better than to even respond. 
:rolleyes:  
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Agitator???  I asked for clarification, nicely I might add.  I could just as easily call you out for misinformation.  I provided a link, let's not forget.  You read it wrong and came at me . . . for your mistake, period.

Do what you want, not my fault you couldn't back up what you were saying.

 
JoeSteeler said:
Think I am all set now - made a couple mast min adjustments 
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I’m torn on my entry with Fournette.

on the one hand, if he’s out round 1, I’m a little hosed - but he could easily make up for that in round 2 -> if the Bucs advance.

on the other hand, his status might scare a lot of folks away, thus making him the contrarian play with huge upside. 
🤔 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I’m torn on my entry with Fournette.

on the one hand, if he’s out round 1, I’m a little hosed - but he could easily make up for that in round 2 -> if the Bucs advance.

on the other hand, his status might scare a lot of folks away, thus making him the contrarian play with huge upside. 
🤔
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Per source Fournette is out this week

 
Where can we see the percentages of players owned? How many Gronks etc? Last year I think it was Fantasy Guru but do not see it today??

I ask the FFPC every year to please provide these stats for us!

 
Where can we see the list of percentage of players owned? How many Gronks etc?? I ask every year for the FFPC to do it but....

Fantasy Guru had it last few years I think it was but do not see anything yet??

 
Where can we see a list of percentages of owned players? Last couple years Fantasy Guru had these stats but I don't see it now...I ask the FFPC to please provide this every year..Thanks

 
My 3 teams all seem to be pretty decent so far. Much better than either of my teams last year. I'm about 50 points off of 1st place and have a couple players tonight. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
My 3 teams all seem to be pretty decent so far. Much better than either of my teams last year. I'm about 50 points off of 1st place and have a couple players tonight. 
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I am looking good too. All 3 of my teams have a full 8 position players.

 
OK, I checked. 

My 3 entries have the following players remaining: 

Team 1: Brady, Dillon, Chase, AJB, Deebo, Diggs, Kupp, Kelce

Team 2: Mahomes, Mixon, Michel, Deebo, Diggs, Dillon, AJB, Gronk

Team 3: Allen, Mitchell, Mixon, Hill, Adams, Kupp, Evans, AJB and got a nice performance from Waller before the Raiders got bounced. 

Team 3 is 50 points off the #1, and the other two about 10-15 behind that, respectively. 

Not sure I have a chance at finishing in the $, but team 3 is off to a pretty good start & has 8 YTP

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
OK, I checked. 

My 3 entries have the following players remaining: 

Team 1: Brady, Dillon, Chase, AJB, Deebo, Diggs, Kupp, Kelce

Team 2: Mahomes, Mixon, Michel, Deebo, Diggs, Dillon, AJB, Gronk

Team 3: Allen, Mitchell, Mixon, Hill, Adams, Kupp, Evans, AJB and got a nice performance from Waller before the Raiders got bounced. 

Team 3 is 50 points off the #1, and the other two about 10-15 behind that, respectively. 

Not sure I have a chance at finishing in the $, but team 3 is off to a pretty good start & has 8 YTP
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Here are my two teams.  They are 48 & 50 points back.  I doubt I have a chance at the money due to these all being highly owned players.

 QB    Tom Brady                 QB    Aaron Rodgers
RB    Derrick Henry             RB    Derrick Henry
WR    Cooper Kupp             WR    Cooper Kupp
WR    Davante Adams        WR    Deebo Samuel
RB    Devin Singletary         WR    Ja'Marr Chase
WR    Deebo Samuel          WR    Mike Evans
WR    Ja'Marr Chase          WR    Stefon Diggs
TE    Travis Kelce               TE    Travis Kelce

 
I have one team 30 points backs but there isn't a lot of dead money in the tourney. Fantasymojo tracks this stuff and said over 80%+ of entries still have 8 active players. Mine all do but I sure wish I had followed my gut and subbed in Steelers D for all my Pats D teams where I wasn't using Najee. 

There are a couple entries with K Bourne that might take this down. Here is my best:

Mahomes/Singletary/Najee/Kupp/Adams/Chase/AJ Brown/Deebo/Amari/Gronk/Carlson/Pats

I have one in the $500k that may do well.

ETA FantasyMojo also said last year only something like 40% made it to round2 with 8 players. More upsets last year more chalk this year. 

 
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barackdhouse said:
I have one team 30 points backs but there isn't a lot of dead money in the tourney. Fantasymojo tracks this stuff and said over 80%+ of entries still have 8 active players. Mine all do but I sure wish I had followed my gut and subbed in Steelers D for all my Pats D teams where I wasn't using Najee. 

There are a couple entries with K Bourne that might take this down. Here is my best:

Mahomes/Singletary/Najee/Kupp/Adams/Chase/AJ Brown/Deebo/Amari/Gronk/Carlson/Pats

I have one in the $500k that may do well.

ETA FantasyMojo also said last year only something like 40% made it to round2 with 8 players. More upsets last year more chalk this year. 
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Does that 8 count kickers and D

 
Drunken Cowboy said:
Does that 8 count kickers and D
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For me no. But plenty of people have active kickers and defenses still going. So yes the 8 *can* include a K or D if that is what you're asking. I had either Prater or Carlson in each iteration and/or Patriots/Steelers D. But other folks with high scores have Niners D, Packers D and Ten D out there.

 
First time I've tried this. Figured I was in way over my head but you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

I'm 46 back with 8 players left

Mahomes

Singletary

Henry

Kupp

Deebo

Chase

Adams

Gronkowski

Lost Lamb, Renfrow, Prater & NE D

 
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barackdhouse said:
There are a couple entries with K Bourne that might take this down.
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You'd think since he was ideal one and done but probably not, no one in top 10 of any the two contests have him and I kind of expected that and I'll explain why.

The problem with people who put an outlier like Bourne on their team is they usually go to crazy. That's not the way. I think with so many teams people think they got to get crazy but most of the time you never need a single outlier like a Bourne. What I've noticed over the years if  a team has an outlier like Bourne, they put a team of multiple outliers together and that's the mistake. If you got to go with an outlier, and again I don't think you normally do,  the key is to stop at one and then go cookie cutter but you almost never see that, instead it's outlier crazy.

 
menobrown said:
You'd think since he was ideal one and done but probably not, no one in top 10 of any the two contests have him and I kind of expected that and I'll explain why.

The problem with people who put an outlier like Bourne on their team is they usually go to crazy. That's not the way. I think with so many teams people think they got to get crazy but most of the time you never need a single outlier like a Bourne. What I've noticed over the years if  a team has an outlier like Bourne, they put a team of multiple outliers together and that's the mistake. If you got to go with an outlier, and again I don't think you normally do,  the key is to stop at one and then go cookie cutter but you almost never see that, instead it's outlier crazy.
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I looked up the rosters that have him and there is one in particular that I think can do it. Or come dang close. Yeah I tend to agree with what you're saying about outliers though. My biggest one across my lineups might be Schultz (who did well). I'd have to look up the ownership %s again. I had to throw a couple Higgins in there but there is mostly chalk in my lineups. 100% Adams and Kupp. Like a lot of others. I think perhaps the biggest advantage to be gained is to unlock the right K/DEF combo that both scores well and gets eliminated in the WC. There is one Bourne team that looks to me like they may have done that and the rest of their lineup is close to optimal. And not far back on the leaderboard IIRC.

 
barackdhouse said:
I looked up the rosters that have him and there is one in particular that I think can do it. Or come dang close. Yeah I tend to agree with what you're saying about outliers though. My biggest one across my lineups might be Schultz (who did well). I'd have to look up the ownership %s again. I had to throw a couple Higgins in there but there is mostly chalk in my lineups. 100% Adams and Kupp. Like a lot of others. I think perhaps the biggest advantage to be gained is to unlock the right K/DEF combo that both scores well and gets eliminated in the WC. There is one Bourne team that looks to me like they may have done that and the rest of their lineup is close to optimal. And not far back on the leaderboard IIRC.
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Several years ago when the contest was much smaller did a few entries with some friends and one of ours came in second to a team that had 9 of 10 similar players, only difference was the K who went out in week one and outscored our K by 2 points.

So I do think what you are saying is true because I lived it but I'd expand it and say the way I feel about my teams this year(and most years at this time) is if I did not get the right one and done player I feel like all hope is lost on winning the whole thing.  Diggs for instance looks like a horrible pick but he at least has 1 or more games to try and make up ground on Knox/Singletary. So I don't feel great about my Diggs teams but I feel worse about my Lamb teams because that window is shut and with so many teams competing it's unlikely to me that a team with Lamb comes out on top over say a Cooper team. There is a Lamb team in second right now in one of them(poster here named Tejas) but the top teams are littered with Cooper and that advantage is baked in at this point.

 
menobrown said:
Several years ago when the contest was much smaller did a few entries with some friends and one of ours came in second to a team that had 9 of 10 similar players, only difference was the K who went out in week one and outscored our K by 2 points.

So I do think what you are saying is true because I lived it but I'd expand it and say the way I feel about my teams this year(and most years at this time) is if I did not get the right one and done player I feel like all hope is lost on winning the whole thing.  Diggs for instance looks like a horrible pick but he at least has 1 or more games to try and make up ground on Knox/Singletary. So I don't feel great about my Diggs teams but I feel worse about my Lamb teams because that window is shut and with so many teams competing it's unlikely to me that a team with Lamb comes out on top over say a Cooper team. There is a Lamb team in second right now in one of them(poster here named Tejas) but the top teams are littered with Cooper and that advantage is baked in at this point.
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The one and done player and K/DEF is the key.  These are the only difference on the majority of teams.  

 
After yesterday's games, I have a team in the 200's with Mahommes, Singletary, Evans and Kupp to go in the 200$ challenge. My chances of getting in the the top $$$'s is unlikely, but ending in the $$$'s seems like a possibility! 🤞

 
I was 5 points off the high score for yesterday (losing AJB, unfortunately) but today will effect my teams significantly as I have 3: one Mahomes, one Brady & one Allen.

All 3 teams were within 11 points of the top score yesterday though. 

 
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