For those concerned about an LJ injury next year, (1 Viewer)

[comfortably numb]

My questions is, Why don't people factor in playoffs when they are "concerened" about too many carries for player X?

LJ had 416 & 41 rec

post season 13 & 5

Grand total of 475

LT 348 & 56

post season 23 & 2

Grand total of 429

So lets say LT made it to the super bowl, would anyone be mentioning he had almost 500 touches, and the he could be at a higher risk for an injury?

These guys are both 27 years old, one could argue LJ is "fresher" due to not starting his 1st 2 years.

The top 4 in carries this year

LJ 416

LT 348

SJ 346

Rudi 341

LJ is the main person who gets a ??? for next year based on all the carries he got, but if any of the these other guys made it into the Superbowl, and lets give them 20 carries a game.

thats 60 extra carries, that puts them all over 400. Yet I don't think anyone would mention that in regards to being at a higher risk for injury the following season.

Is all this injury concern unwarrented, or just cautious comparisons due to Jamal Anderson???

 

[whoisjohngalt]

Isn't 416 over 17 weeks a much worse thing than 400ish over 22 weeks? I'd venture to say that the first carry of the game is less impactful/harmful than the 40th. So spreading out the carries over extra weeks is a better thing. Right?

 

[EBF]

Running style and build are also important considerations. File me into the column of people who thinks LT is in the mold of Emmitt Smith and Curtis Martin. He has the perfect build for a RB and he rarely seems to take big shots. I see him enjoying a surprisingly long career.

LJ? Not so much. He is more of a power guy who fights for his yards. I think he's a major injury risk given the workload he has had. Guys like Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson were ground to nothing on a similar workload. Ricky Williams, Eddie George, and Jamal Lewis suffered severe declines after their monster high carry years.

 

[Liquid Tension]

My questions is, Why don't people factor in playoffs when they are "concerened" about too many carries for player X? LJ had 416 & 41 recpost season 13 & 5Grand total of 475LT 348 & 56post season 23 & 2Grand total of 429So lets say LT made it to the super bowl, would anyone be mentioning he had almost 500 touches, and the he could be at a higher risk for an injury?These guys are both 27 years old, one could argue LJ is "fresher" due to not starting his 1st 2 years.The top 4 in carries this yearLJ 416LT 348SJ 346Rudi 341LJ is the main person who gets a ??? for next year based on all the carries he got, but if any of the these other guys made it into the Superbowl, and lets give them 20 carries a game.thats 60 extra carries, that puts them all over 400. Yet I don't think anyone would mention that in regards to being at a higher risk for injury the following season.Is all this injury concern unwarrented, or just cautious comparisons due to Jamal Anderson???

Valid point about the touches. I am not sure if there is a magic formula, but some guys seem to get hit harder than others. I always said Ricky Williams would not be able to carry the load for many years because of the way he "allowed" himself to get hit.BTW, I would think receptions are a little easier on the body because usually the tacklers are not 300 pound lineman.

 

[David Yudkin]

RB Production After Seasons With 400+ Touches (Including Regular & Postseason)

 

[elcohiba]

Don't forget, Herm wants to dial down the O so they can do what they do best. LJ 475 and 63 and around week 15 collapses like a rented mule.

 

[Bill]

Don't forget, Herm wants to dial down the O so they can do what they do best. LJ 475 and 63 and around week 15 collapses like a rented mule.

i don't have time to look it up right now but it seems to me that its LT who always comes up small at the end of the regular season compared to his normal stats. i know the guy in my main league has ridden LT to the finals(week16 and 17) the last two years only to have LT let him down each year and he came in 2nd place both years.

 

[comfortably numb]

Isn't 416 over 17 weeks a much worse thing than 400ish over 22 weeks? I'd venture to say that the first carry of the game is less impactful/harmful than the 40th. So spreading out the carries over extra weeks is a better thing. Right?

Not sure, not sure if it's much worse or better.Having a few extra weeks of playing late in the season my be tougher.As your logic applies to a single game, apply the same logic to a full season. 17 wees as opposed to 22 weeks.I agree with your logic to a point, I just think while in a game your adrenaline is flowing and you may be able to withstand more, but in terms of a season, the mental and physical aaspect of playing an extra month may be more physicaly and mentaly grueling.Just my opinon on that.

 

[comfortably numb]

RB Production After Seasons With 400+ Touches (Including Regular & Postseason)

Great article.Lots of info.

I will have to look at this alittle more when I have more time.

I was just curious as to why I see so many people bring up LJ as an injury concern for next year, and the main reason is the number 416.

When it is all said and done he could have not be the only RB to get 400 carries.

(If LT and SJ or Rudi, had made it far in the playoffs)

Its as if people only consider the regular sesaon as their sample size.

It's not like the player gets a new body for the post season.

Same ol body, same ol pounding

 

[Kiddnets]

Hermie rode Curtis Martin into the ground - I see the same with LJ.

 

[nygiants56]

Hermie rode Curtis Martin into the ground - I see the same with LJ.

so, whats your point? C-Mart didn't get 400+ carries year after year ...don't forget, the Chiefs lost Trent Green , early in the season ( week 1, right?)..they had to go with a backup QB, Damon Huard..so it stands to reason that the Chiefs would LEAN on the running game immensely , as they waited for Green to recover..C-Mart's stats under Herm:

In 2001, Herm's first year as Jets HC, he gave c-Mart 333 carries, good for 1513 rushing yards..in 2002, it was 261 carries for 1094 yards, in 2003, he got 323 carries for 1308 yards, in 2004, he got 371 carries and 1697 yards - good enough for an NFL rushing title to go with it. When Martin got hurt in 2005, he was on pace for 292 carries..

Herm loves to run the ball, he didn't single handedly run C-Mart into the ground. You seem to forget Parcells rode C-Mart in NE and then again with NYJ..

I'll take a C-Mart's NY Jets avg of 301.6 carries/yr, any day of the week !!

*I'm an LJ owner and I'd love to know that is exactly what I can expect from him, every year, under Herm!!!!!

LJ's carry-totals might go down, probably back to 350 carries..but, thats still good enough to make him a top 3 pick ( Lt2, LJ or SJax)..

one more caveat to your theory:

LJ is VERY young, so I don't worry about 400+ carries in this, his first full year as a starter.. He played behind a somewhat makeshift line, and still rushed for 1789 yards , second only to LT2.. they'll definitely have some new blood on that Chiefs o-line ( draft picks/free agency/Roaf could possibly return), so he could very well pass the 2000-yard mark in 2007...

cars were meant to be driven, so run LJ into the ground, thats what KC pays him for!!!

 

[redman]

RB Production After Seasons With 400+ Touches (Including Regular & Postseason)

It's good info, but I don't equate touches from receptions to touches (at least some of them) from carries. I think the likelihood of a violent tackle is much higher for a runner than a receiver. A RB catching a swing pass or a screen has a much better chance of either being tackled by only one person (and a smaller one at that), or running out of bounds than does a RB carring the ball between the tackles or even on a sweep or draw. I also agree that certain runners are more prone to collisions than others. Emmitt Smith was a master at avoiding big hits. He seems to be able to squirm away from them and have most of the tacklers' force go over him or into the ground or even each other. LT, though a bigger guy, also has a lot of that skill. I don't see that as much from LJ.

 

[MagicMan]

every damn player in the nfl is at risk for injury.

drop this crap already

 

[Rovers]

every damn player in the nfl is at risk for injury.drop this crap already

Sounds like someone is still upset about the whole Saban fiasco.....

 

[Kiddnets]

Hermie rode Curtis Martin into the ground - I see the same with LJ.

so, whats your point? C-Mart didn't get 400+ carries year after year ...don't forget, the Chiefs lost Trent Green , early in the season ( week 1, right?)..they had to go with a backup QB, Damon Huard..so it stands to reason that the Chiefs would LEAN on the running game immensely , as they waited for Green to recover..C-Mart's stats under Herm:

In 2001, Herm's first year as Jets HC, he gave c-Mart 333 carries, good for 1513 rushing yards..in 2002, it was 261 carries for 1094 yards, in 2003, he got 323 carries for 1308 yards, in 2004, he got 371 carries and 1697 yards - good enough for an NFL rushing title to go with it. When Martin got hurt in 2005, he was on pace for 292 carries..

Herm loves to run the ball, he didn't single handedly run C-Mart into the ground. You seem to forget Parcells rode C-Mart in NE and then again with NYJ..

I'll take a C-Mart's NY Jets avg of 301.6 carries/yr, any day of the week !!

*I'm an LJ owner and I'd love to know that is exactly what I can expect from him, every year, under Herm!!!!!

LJ's carry-totals might go down, probably back to 350 carries..but, thats still good enough to make him a top 3 pick ( Lt2, LJ or SJax)..

one more caveat to your theory:

LJ is VERY young, so I don't worry about 400+ carries in this, his first full year as a starter.. He played behind a somewhat makeshift line, and still rushed for 1789 yards , second only to LT2.. they'll definitely have some new blood on that Chiefs o-line ( draft picks/free agency/Roaf could possibly return), so he could very well pass the 2000-yard mark in 2007...

cars were meant to be driven, so run LJ into the ground, thats what KC pays him for!!!

Parcells didn't have a young Lamont Jordan in the backfield as well!Any Jet fan knows that Herm screwed up in riding Curtis too hard and not working in Lamont more - I don't care about numbers - I'm just saying Herm is loyal almost to a fault. He will ride LJ too much and has no concept of giving him a break - that leads to injuries IMO. If Herm worked in Lamont more Curtis may have extended his career at least a little longer IMO.

You can drive your car into the ground - but if you take care of it, change the oil, and give it a rest if you have another car in the garage it will last a heck of a lot longer!