Four players I will avoid this year (1 Viewer)

[ImTheScientist]

Four players that I feel 1) Present horrible value (ADP) and will 2) Be busts this year:

1) Brandon Jacobs - His current ADP is #37, I do not see him being able to hold up under a full work load.

2) Maurice Jones-Drew - Current ADP #16. He had 16 TD's last year and will not repeat that amazing performance IMO. At best he will split carries, is a RB that splits carries or less value at pick #16

3) Vince Young - Current ADP #54. He is being drafted as the #9 QB off the board. WOW....who is he going to throw too?

4) Javon Walker - Current ADP #43, WR#12. I don't think Cutler will have a good/consistant enough year to have Walker rank @ #12 amoung WR's.

 

[FFRainKing]

2) Maurice Jones-Drew - Current ADP #16. He had 16 TD's last year and will not repeat that amazing performance IMO. At best he will split carries, is a RB that splits carries or less value at pick #16

I think I am one of the few that will agree with this. MJD is very talented and going to be a stud in a few years but folks seem to forget how productive Fred was last year as well. He is still the veteran RB on the team and Del Rio is not just going to start giving MJD a majority of the carries if Fred is still prodcutive and JAX is winning (which I expect they will do a lot of in 07)

 

[wannabee]

Didn't Drew split carries when he throw up the gaudy numbers last year? Plus, how old is Fred Taylor?

 

[Warpig]

2) Maurice Jones-Drew - Current ADP #16. He had 16 TD's last year and will not repeat that amazing performance IMO. At best he will split carries, is a RB that splits carries or less value at pick #16

I think I am one of the few that will agree with this. MJD is very talented and going to be a stud in a few years but folks seem to forget how productive Fred was last year as well. He is still the veteran RB on the team and Del Rio is not just going to start giving MJD a majority of the carries if Fred is still prodcutive and JAX is winning (which I expect they will do a lot of in 07)

I agree with the MJD part and will also add that I wonder what he would do with a full work load. Once Taylor is done, I would wonder if JDR or whomever the coach is next year would bring in another back to split carries with MJD again?As far as Jacksonville winning alot this year...I don't see it. I see them as an average team overall with a very good defense (8-8 or 9-7). Is that all it takes to win a championship? Sure, see Baltimore. However, I don't think Jacksonvilles defense is as good as that Baltimore defense was. Leftwich isn't the kind of QB I could ever see coming up big in meaningful games. Add in the fact that Jacksonville's WR situation is one of the biggest messes along with TEN and MIN (they have a bunch of overrated underachievers), I would assume that Leftwich is as much of a risk as being a bust as VY, but VY is far more of a threat to run it than Lefty.So I would say the WR corps and QB crop in J-ville will be a bust. (Jags fan )

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Four players that I feel 1) Present horrible value (ADP) and will 2) Be busts this year:1) Brandon Jacobs - His current ADP is #37, I do not see him being able to hold up under a full work load.2) Maurice Jones-Drew - Current ADP #16. He had 16 TD's last year and will not repeat that amazing performance IMO. At best he will split carries, is a RB that splits carries or less value at pick #163) Vince Young - Current ADP #54. He is being drafted as the #9 QB off the board. WOW....who is he going to throw too?4) Javon Walker - Current ADP #43, WR#12. I don't think Cutler will have a good/consistant enough year to have Walker rank @ #12 amoung WR's.

I completly agree with you on your first 3 you mentioned. Especially with MJD. He won't even come close to those #'s again. But if I had my top 4 to stay away from it would be this:MJDT.RomoB.JacksonAnd believe it or not: M.ColstonI think he is WAY overrated and will not put up those kind of numbers again in his career. They might be closer this year but only because of the fact that Meachem is coming along slowly.

 

[Warpig]

Four players that I feel 1) Present horrible value (ADP) and will 2) Be busts this year:1) Brandon Jacobs - His current ADP is #37, I do not see him being able to hold up under a full work load.2) Maurice Jones-Drew - Current ADP #16. He had 16 TD's last year and will not repeat that amazing performance IMO. At best he will split carries, is a RB that splits carries or less value at pick #163) Vince Young - Current ADP #54. He is being drafted as the #9 QB off the board. WOW....who is he going to throw too?4) Javon Walker - Current ADP #43, WR#12. I don't think Cutler will have a good/consistant enough year to have Walker rank @ #12 amoung WR's.

I completly agree with you on your first 3 you mentioned. Especially with MJD. He won't even come close to those #'s again. But if I had my top 4 to stay away from it would be this:MJDT.RomoB.JacksonAnd believe it or not: M.ColstonI think he is WAY overrated and will not put up those kind of numbers again in his career. They might be closer this year but only because of the fact that Meachem is coming along slowly.

I agree with every bit of this.

 

[LawFitz]

Four players that I feel 1) Present horrible value (ADP) and will 2) Be busts this year:1) Brandon Jacobs - His current ADP is #37, I do not see him being able to hold up under a full work load.2) Maurice Jones-Drew - Current ADP #16. He had 16 TD's last year and will not repeat that amazing performance IMO. At best he will split carries, is a RB that splits carries or less value at pick #163) Vince Young - Current ADP #54. He is being drafted as the #9 QB off the board. WOW....who is he going to throw too?4) Javon Walker - Current ADP #43, WR#12. I don't think Cutler will have a good/consistant enough year to have Walker rank @ #12 amoung WR's.

I completly agree with you on your first 3 you mentioned. Especially with MJD. He won't even come close to those #'s again. But if I had my top 4 to stay away from it would be this:MJDT.RomoB.JacksonAnd believe it or not: M.ColstonI think he is WAY overrated and will not put up those kind of numbers again in his career. They might be closer this year but only because of the fact that Meachem is coming along slowly.

What makes you feel this way about Colston other than his draft position?I think the kid is a great prospect who plays on a terrific, balanced offense. Please tell my why you think otherwise.

 

[Tom Servo]

Four players that I feel 1) Present horrible value (ADP) and will 2) Be busts this year:1) Brandon Jacobs - His current ADP is #37, I do not see him being able to hold up under a full work load.2) Maurice Jones-Drew - Current ADP #16. He had 16 TD's last year and will not repeat that amazing performance IMO. At best he will split carries, is a RB that splits carries or less value at pick #163) Vince Young - Current ADP #54. He is being drafted as the #9 QB off the board. WOW....who is he going to throw too?4) Javon Walker - Current ADP #43, WR#12. I don't think Cutler will have a good/consistant enough year to have Walker rank @ #12 amoung WR's.

I would agree with you on the 1st three as well.My only thing is that how do you define "BUST" numerically? For example, if MJD has 60% of the TDs and 75% of the yardage (possible) is he a bust? I guess it would depend on where you have to take him. At his ADP? Definitely bad value. Two rounds later? (Yeah, I know ) He would be a decent pick.

 

[On The Rocks]

I went to the FBG Top 200 list and these are the first 4 names I saw that I won't take:

50. Brandon Jacobs

63. LenDale White

69. Michael Vick

93. Tatum Bell (this guy is a tease, and I don't need the blue balls he gave me last year.)

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Kevin Jones

Cedric Benson

Eli Manning

Santana Moss

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Picking one from each position...

Tony Romo

Cadillac Williams

Plaxico Burress

Ben Watson

 

[kensat30]

Reggie Bush - #11

MJD - #16

Vince Young - #54

Darrell Jackson - #57

I could have put 4 RBs here because most of my players to avoid are RBs due to their early ADPs, but I went with my most overrated QB and WR.

 

[az_prof]

Four Players I will avoid:

Michael Vick--I will be surprised if he is not suspended for a significant number of games this year.

Tony Gonzalez--Guy has been a stalwart at the position for fantasy players for years, but he is starting to show his age and the combination of an unproven QB and the second year of the new offensive system makes me expect a big drop off from past production.

Jamal Lewis: Cleveland is a big drop off in terms of OL and he is showing his age.

DJax: Guy has an injury that we found out now affected him last year and from which he is still suffering; he is in a new offense and is missing OTAs because of the injury, when he should be learning the offense and developing a rapport with QB; QB is a downgrade for him (Hasselbeck compared to Smith). You know he will miss some time.

 

[shadyridr]

3) Vince Young - Current ADP #54. He is being drafted as the #9 QB off the board. WOW....who is he going to throw too?

Since when does he have to throw to get points? #9 seems about right.

 

[evilempire]

Reggie Bush - #11 MJD - #16Vince Young - #54Darrell Jackson - #57I could have put 4 RBs here because most of my players to avoid are RBs due to their early ADPs, but I went with my most overrated QB and WR.

Going by positionVickBrandon Jacobs (though I really want to put Benson)Reggie Brown (not sure he's ready for this huge breakthrough and I think Curtis will have more catches than others do)Randy McMichael (has had basically 1 1/2 good seasons and is in an offense that doesn't really highlight the TE)

 

[waylander]

I'm still surprised VY still has so many doubters.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Santana Moss

If it's anything other than a health issue, I think you are dead wrong. Whenever he gets the ball into his hands, he is absolutely electric!

 

[kaso]

Caddy Williams

Lamont Jordan

Randy Moss

Cedric Benson

 

[duaneok66]

Agree with the first three w/o question . . .

 

[phthalatemagic]

Those that think Drew won't come close to his old numbers - do you think the same for Marion Barber?

 

[az_prof]

I'm still surprised VY still has so many doubters.

Take away his running yards and he was one of the worst QBs last year. Want to see what happens to Qbs who run too much? Hello Daunte Culpepper. Plus, that offense has NO ONE at the skill positions. Who is going to throw the ball to? Who is going to run the ball? As far as his quarterback skills, his completion percentage was 51%, which is horrible. His QB rating was 66, which is horrible. Frankly, I don't see why everyone is so high on him? I wouldn't take him until the 10th round, and I happy to let some slap happy fan take him much earlier. People will point to his rushing productions, but history shows that QBs who run like that get hurt--and I don't want to waste a fifth or sixth round pick on a QB who is that much of a risk.

 

[LionsFan78]

All this depending on the draft happening right now, with no addition information coming from upcoming training camps....but here goes it:

Robbie Gould - No way he matches last year's stats, and people will reach for him, as they always do with top kickers. I'll wait.

Ben Watson - Last year should've been a stud year. Now we're supposed to believe it'll get better with all the additions they've made offensively?

Marion Barber - Bear with me. I'm not saying I won't draft him if the price is right. But there's a completely new offensive coaching staff in place, and we truly don't know yet what's in store for the RB tandem. Will he fulfill the same role as last year? Will he emerge as the go-to guy? Me personally, I just don't think I can take him as a RB2 in a non-PPR league. Oh yeah, and 16 TDs not happening again. If there's other viable options at that spot, I'll go elsewhere.

Chris Brown - So he's re-signed by TEN, and there's not much competition. I'm really not excited. He got a chance last year, no?

Darrell Jackson - Great season last year, with better all around talent around him. Health concerns aside (of which there are plenty), I still think he gets bumped down a bit. I've got him right around guys like Brown, Ward, Branch and Coles, and if any of them are there, I'd pass.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Santana Moss

If it's anything other than a health issue, I think you are dead wrong. Whenever he gets the ball into his hands, he is absolutely electric!

The problem is that for the last year and a half, he hasn't gotten it in his hands consistenly enough.The last half of the '05 season was brutal (except for week 16), and he was a pedestrian 55/790/6 last year.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Ben Watson - Last year should've been a stud year. Now we're supposed to believe it'll get better with all the additions they've made offensively?

Agree. On another team, he'd probably be fantastic, but the Patriots just spread it around way too much.

Chris Brown - So he's re-signed by TEN, and there's not much competition. I'm really not excited. He got a chance last year, no?

Sorta disagree. The Titans were quickly enamored with Henry and fed up with Brown's injuries. If healthy, he should produce. That's a BIG if, though.

 

[Dhizz]

Ahhh hater central.

Maroney struggled in his rookie year, HE'S A BEAST! TOP 10 RB!

Dwill couldn't get past Foster on the depth chart, LT IN THE MAKING!

Bush struggled to translate to the NFL, TOP 10 RB!

MJD has a rookie season for the ages, IT'S ALL DOWN HILL FROM HERE!

Colston kills defenses, puts up gaudy #s, SO OVERRATED DUE TO INSANE PRODUCTION!

Insane production apparently is a red flag. Struggling = upside. Makes sense.

Seems like it's better to struggle, so the apologists can get an early start on your career. Come out of the blocks too well, slow down you're going to burn out!

MJD was more highly rated then Bush coming out of HS, he just went to the wrong SoCal school. We all know if MJD was 6'1 230, he'd been the next Jim Brown and he'd be a top 3 pick this year. But the guy is short, so he was so very lucky on those 15 tds. When he was tearing up the Pats D, it was obvious he caught them on a bad day. Everytime MJD plays a defense, they seem to have an off day. It's crazy.

Anyone else 6'1+ comes into the league and gets 15 tds, they're a god among men. 5'7, ehhh, he cheated his way to dominating production. It's hilarious. People used to laugh at Joe when he’d bring up Fast Willie Parker. No one is laughing anymore.

On the rare chance AD puts up 15 TDs, he’s going to be the #1 pick in every league, every format.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Ahhh hater central.Maroney struggled in his rookie year, HE'S A BEAST! TOP 10 RB!Dwill couldn't get past Foster on the depth chart, LT IN THE MAKING!Bush struggled to translate to the NFL, TOP 10 RB!MJD has a rookie season for the ages, IT'S ALL DOWN HILL FROM HERE!Colston kills defenses, puts up gaudy #s, SO OVERRATED DUE TO INSANE PRODUCTION!Seems like it's better to struggle, so the apologists can get an early start on your career. Come out of the blocks too well, slow down you're going to burn out!MJD was more highly rated then Bush coming out of HS, he just went to the wrong SoCal school. We all know if MJD was 6'1 230, he'd been the next Jim Brown and he'd be a top 3 pick this year. But the guy is short, so he was so very lucky on those 15 tds. When he was tearing up the Pats D, it was obvious he caught them on a bad day. Everytime MJD plays a defense, they seem to have an off day. It's crazy. Anyone else 6'1+ comes into the league and gets 15 tds, they're a god among men. 5'7, ehhh, he cheated his way to dominating production. It's hilarious. People used to laugh at Joe when he’d bring up Fast Willie Parker. No one is laughing anymore.On the rare chance AD puts up 15 TDs, he’s going to be the #1 pick in every league, every format.

Um....What?

 

[DenverBroncos]

Biggest busts this year:

QB: Vince Young and Matt Leinart

RB: Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Marshawn Lynch and MJD

WR: Anquan Boldin, Matt Jones (he's already a bust but some people like him), Lee Evans

TE: Vernon Davis (yeah I said it)

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Biggest busts this year:

QB: Vince Young and Matt Leinart

RB: Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Marshawn Lynch and MJD

WR: Anquan Boldin, Matt Jones (he's already a bust but some people like him), Lee Evans

TE: Vernon Davis (yeah I said it)

No way.

 

[waylander]

I'm still surprised VY still has so many doubters.

Take away his running yards and he was one of the worst QBs last year. Want to see what happens to Qbs who run too much? Hello Daunte Culpepper. Plus, that offense has NO ONE at the skill positions. Who is going to throw the ball to? Who is going to run the ball? As far as his quarterback skills, his completion percentage was 51%, which is horrible. His QB rating was 66, which is horrible. Frankly, I don't see why everyone is so high on him? I wouldn't take him until the 10th round, and I happy to let some slap happy fan take him much earlier. People will point to his rushing productions, but history shows that QBs who run like that get hurt--and I don't want to waste a fifth or sixth round pick on a QB who is that much of a risk.

Does your league not give you points for QB rushing yards and tds? As for his completion percentage and rating, you are aware that he was a rookie last year right?We obviously have different views on his play, so if you don't mind me asking, what stats do you expect from him this season?

 

[AnonymousBob]

Ahhh hater central.Maroney struggled in his rookie year, HE'S A BEAST! TOP 10 RB!Dwill couldn't get past Foster on the depth chart, LT IN THE MAKING!Bush struggled to translate to the NFL, TOP 10 RB!MJD has a rookie season for the ages, IT'S ALL DOWN HILL FROM HERE!Colston kills defenses, puts up gaudy #s, SO OVERRATED DUE TO INSANE PRODUCTION!Seems like it's better to struggle, so the apologists can get an early start on your career. Come out of the blocks too well, slow down you're going to burn out!MJD was more highly rated then Bush coming out of HS, he just went to the wrong SoCal school. We all know if MJD was 6'1 230, he'd been the next Jim Brown and he'd be a top 3 pick this year. But the guy is short, so he was so very lucky on those 15 tds. When he was tearing up the Pats D, it was obvious he caught them on a bad day. Everytime MJD plays a defense, they seem to have an off day. It's crazy. Anyone else 6'1+ comes into the league and gets 15 tds, they're a god among men. 5'7, ehhh, he cheated his way to dominating production. It's hilarious. People used to laugh at Joe when he’d bring up Fast Willie Parker. No one is laughing anymore.On the rare chance AD puts up 15 TDs, he’s going to be the #1 pick in every league, every format.

Um....What?

What's so hard to understand? It seems people are reverting back to whatever they originally thought of player x, regardless of their production level last season.

 

[duaneok66]

Those that think Drew won't come close to his old numbers - do you think the same for Marion Barber?

yes; I am a Barber owner (dynasty) , and I think that people are jumping the gun . . .

 

[DenverBroncos]

Ahhh hater central.Maroney struggled in his rookie year, HE'S A BEAST! TOP 10 RB!Dwill couldn't get past Foster on the depth chart, LT IN THE MAKING!Bush struggled to translate to the NFL, TOP 10 RB!MJD has a rookie season for the ages, IT'S ALL DOWN HILL FROM HERE!Colston kills defenses, puts up gaudy #s, SO OVERRATED DUE TO INSANE PRODUCTION!Seems like it's better to struggle, so the apologists can get an early start on your career. Come out of the blocks too well, slow down you're going to burn out!MJD was more highly rated then Bush coming out of HS, he just went to the wrong SoCal school. We all know if MJD was 6'1 230, he'd been the next Jim Brown and he'd be a top 3 pick this year. But the guy is short, so he was so very lucky on those 15 tds. When he was tearing up the Pats D, it was obvious he caught them on a bad day. Everytime MJD plays a defense, they seem to have an off day. It's crazy. Anyone else 6'1+ comes into the league and gets 15 tds, they're a god among men. 5'7, ehhh, he cheated his way to dominating production. It's hilarious. People used to laugh at Joe when he’d bring up Fast Willie Parker. No one is laughing anymore.On the rare chance AD puts up 15 TDs, he’s going to be the #1 pick in every league, every format.

Um....What?

What's so hard to understand? It seems people are reverting back to whatever they originally thought of player x, regardless of their production level last season.

I think it's because you talk about MJD and then Adrian Peterson at the end.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Ahhh hater central.

Maroney struggled in his rookie year, HE'S A BEAST! TOP 10 RB!

Dwill couldn't get past Foster on the depth chart, LT IN THE MAKING!

Bush struggled to translate to the NFL, TOP 10 RB!

MJD has a rookie season for the ages, IT'S ALL DOWN HILL FROM HERE!

Colston kills defenses, puts up gaudy #s, SO OVERRATED DUE TO INSANE PRODUCTION!

Insane production apparently is a red flag. Struggling = upside. Makes sense.

Seems like it's better to struggle, so the apologists can get an early start on your career. Come out of the blocks too well, slow down you're going to burn out!

MJD was more highly rated then Bush coming out of HS, he just went to the wrong SoCal school. We all know if MJD was 6'1 230, he'd been the next Jim Brown and he'd be a top 3 pick this year. But the guy is short, so he was so very lucky on those 15 tds. When he was tearing up the Pats D, it was obvious he caught them on a bad day. Everytime MJD plays a defense, they seem to have an off day. It's crazy.

Anyone else 6'1+ comes into the league and gets 15 tds, they're a god among men. 5'7, ehhh, he cheated his way to dominating production. It's hilarious. People used to laugh at Joe when he’d bring up Fast Willie Parker. No one is laughing anymore.

On the rare chance AD puts up 15 TDs, he’s going to be the #1 pick in every league, every format.

You listen to too much ESPN. Nobody is talking about MJD's height as a reason for concern. Its more about opportunity.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Excellent thread Guys. This kind of stuff is always useful.

J

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Ahhh hater central.Maroney struggled in his rookie year, HE'S A BEAST! TOP 10 RB!Dwill couldn't get past Foster on the depth chart, LT IN THE MAKING!Bush struggled to translate to the NFL, TOP 10 RB!MJD has a rookie season for the ages, IT'S ALL DOWN HILL FROM HERE!Colston kills defenses, puts up gaudy #s, SO OVERRATED DUE TO INSANE PRODUCTION!Seems like it's better to struggle, so the apologists can get an early start on your career. Come out of the blocks too well, slow down you're going to burn out!MJD was more highly rated then Bush coming out of HS, he just went to the wrong SoCal school. We all know if MJD was 6'1 230, he'd been the next Jim Brown and he'd be a top 3 pick this year. But the guy is short, so he was so very lucky on those 15 tds. When he was tearing up the Pats D, it was obvious he caught them on a bad day. Everytime MJD plays a defense, they seem to have an off day. It's crazy. Anyone else 6'1+ comes into the league and gets 15 tds, they're a god among men. 5'7, ehhh, he cheated his way to dominating production. It's hilarious. People used to laugh at Joe when he’d bring up Fast Willie Parker. No one is laughing anymore.On the rare chance AD puts up 15 TDs, he’s going to be the #1 pick in every league, every format.

Um....What?

What's so hard to understand? It seems people are reverting back to whatever they originally thought of player x, regardless of their production level last season.

Okay, but Maroney didn't struggle, he got hurt. DWill did at least as well as Foster. And I'd say Bush put up some pretty good numbers, regarless of the fact he's not a prototypical NFL back.And it's not ridiculous to say that Jones-Drew and Colston could potentially see a dropoff in numbers from their absurd numbers last year. Even though the thread title asks for it, those commenting on these two don't seem to be saying "avoid at all costs".Starting off a post with "Ahhh hater central." doesn't lend itself well to civilized discussion.

 

[shadyridr]

I'm still surprised VY still has so many doubters.

Take away his running yards and he was one of the worst QBs last year. Want to see what happens to Qbs who run too much? Hello Daunte Culpepper. Plus, that offense has NO ONE at the skill positions. Who is going to throw the ball to? Who is going to run the ball? As far as his quarterback skills, his completion percentage was 51%, which is horrible. His QB rating was 66, which is horrible. Frankly, I don't see why everyone is so high on him? I wouldn't take him until the 10th round, and I happy to let some slap happy fan take him much earlier. People will point to his rushing productions, but history shows that QBs who run like that get hurt--and I don't want to waste a fifth or sixth round pick on a QB who is that much of a risk.

Good thing in my league we get points for QB rushing yards so I dont have to take away his running yards.

 

[LionsFan78]

I'm just not getting some of these Vince Young arguments. I see the 'Who's he gonna throw to?' argument come up quite often. I'm just not buying into that argument. First off, and forgive the Vick comparisons, but Vick had NOBODY to throw to last year (WRs anyway, not forgetting Crumpler), and did just fine. Young didn't exactly have the most consistent bunch either, and in his rookie season, proved to be a viable fill-in starter.

Now, I realize that 1) Young won't come close to rushing for 1,000 yards, and 2) Crumpler >>>>>>> Troupe/Scaife, so I know it's not completely fair to compare. But it's just not a solid argument to me. He's coming off the board as what, the QB9/QB10? It's not like people will be blowing a first round pick on him, like with Culpepper a few years back. It's not going to be that hard for him to live up to that draft position.

If I'm way off, somebody talk some sense to me.

 

[FFdork]

I don't find that thinking in terms of "bust" is very helpful at this time of year. Just project realistic stats based on what you think and draft appropriately using VBD. Maybe the original poster means "avoid" in the sense that there's little chance they will still be on the board when he would pick him, but as Joe likes to say: every player has value.

ADP is great, but in my actual drafts there are always guys that I never expected to be available. I used to waste time trying to mock draft my leagues and come up with complicated contingency plans only to blow them up every year because there's no way player X should be available in the 3rd round.

I think for the reasons people are throwing out, these are the guys that represent higher risk and will therefore go way too high in some leagues and way too low in others.

 

[wadegarrett]

I don't think MJD will be a bust and I won't avoid him. I'll certainly target him for the right value though.

 

[FFRainKing]

Ahhh hater central.Maroney struggled in his rookie year, HE'S A BEAST! TOP 10 RB!Dwill couldn't get past Foster on the depth chart, LT IN THE MAKING!Bush struggled to translate to the NFL, TOP 10 RB!MJD has a rookie season for the ages, IT'S ALL DOWN HILL FROM HERE!Colston kills defenses, puts up gaudy #s, SO OVERRATED DUE TO INSANE PRODUCTION!Insane production apparently is a red flag. Struggling = upside. Makes sense.Seems like it's better to struggle, so the apologists can get an early start on your career. Come out of the blocks too well, slow down you're going to burn out!MJD was more highly rated then Bush coming out of HS, he just went to the wrong SoCal school. We all know if MJD was 6'1 230, he'd been the next Jim Brown and he'd be a top 3 pick this year. But the guy is short, so he was so very lucky on those 15 tds. When he was tearing up the Pats D, it was obvious he caught them on a bad day. Everytime MJD plays a defense, they seem to have an off day. It's crazy. Anyone else 6'1+ comes into the league and gets 15 tds, they're a god among men. 5'7, ehhh, he cheated his way to dominating production. It's hilarious. People used to laugh at Joe when he’d bring up Fast Willie Parker. No one is laughing anymore.On the rare chance AD puts up 15 TDs, he’s going to be the #1 pick in every league, every format.

I think this was poorly communicated sarcasm....In the top half he talks about facts and uses CAPS with typical bashing/praise that goes asks performace we saw in 2006. He then goes on to praise MJD....I think...

 

[Captain Hook]

Reggie Bush - #11 MJD - #16Vince Young - #54Darrell Jackson - #57I could have put 4 RBs here because most of my players to avoid are RBs due to their early ADPs, but I went with my most overrated QB and WR.

Obiously not drafting in a PPR format

 

[ILUVBEER99]

QB

Tony Romo (thought he regressed badly at the end of the year)

RB

Larry Johnson (On one of the worst offenses in football, won't live up to his ADP)

Frank Gore (Great talent, but not gonna spend a high 1st on a guy who was healthy for the first time since high school)

Brandon Jacobs (No upside at all and with his running style if they give him 200+ carries his body will get beaten to a pulp)

WR

Colston (Not ready to buy into him after one season at where he's getting drafted)

Darrell Jackson (Way too many injury concerns and while he was solid he was never lights out in a much better Seattle offense)

 

[DenverBroncos]

QB

Tony Romo (thought he regressed badly at the end of the year)

RB

Larry Johnson (On one of the worst offenses in football, won't live up to his ADP)

Frank Gore (Great talent, but not gonna spend a high 1st on a guy who was healthy for the first time since high school)

Brandon Jacobs (No upside at all and with his running style if they give him 200+ carries his body will get beaten to a pulp)

WR

Colston (Not ready to buy into him after one season at where he's getting drafted)

Darrell Jackson (Way too many injury concerns and while he was solid he was never lights out in a much better Seattle offense)

You are crazy, it would be virtually impossible for LJ not to be RB3.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Every player has value I know we can all agree with that. However there are players lots of players who are overvalued and will not perform up to the standards at which they are expected to perform (their ADP).

To better state my original question: What 4 players do you feel are most overvalued according to their ADP? This would be reason to avoid these players, unless they slip in your draft, then sure take them, but because everyones drafts are different we can only disscuss players in terms of value based off of ADP.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Santana Moss

If it's anything other than a health issue, I think you are dead wrong. Whenever he gets the ball into his hands, he is absolutely electric!

Dude is big time overrated.He put up double digit fantasy pointsin only 6 games last season.He has always been an inconsistent fantasy optionand I don't see this changing in 2007.He's an all or nothing FF WR, and in close to 2/3s of the games last season it was nothing.

 

[ImTheScientist]

QB

Tony Romo (thought he regressed badly at the end of the year)

RB

Larry Johnson (On one of the worst offenses in football, won't live up to his ADP)

Frank Gore (Great talent, but not gonna spend a high 1st on a guy who was healthy for the first time since high school)

Brandon Jacobs (No upside at all and with his running style if they give him 200+ carries his body will get beaten to a pulp)

WR

Colston (Not ready to buy into him after one season at where he's getting drafted)

Darrell Jackson (Way too many injury concerns and while he was solid he was never lights out in a much better Seattle offense)

You are crazy, it would be virtually impossible for LJ not to be RB3.

 

[ukshane]

Four players that I feel 1) Present horrible value (ADP) and will 2) Be busts this year:1) Brandon Jacobs - His current ADP is #37, I do not see him being able to hold up under a full work load.2) Maurice Jones-Drew - Current ADP #16. He had 16 TD's last year and will not repeat that amazing performance IMO. At best he will split carries, is a RB that splits carries or less value at pick #163) Vince Young - Current ADP #54. He is being drafted as the #9 QB off the board. WOW....who is he going to throw too?4) Javon Walker - Current ADP #43, WR#12. I don't think Cutler will have a good/consistant enough year to have Walker rank @ #12 amoung WR's.

I completly agree with you on your first 3 you mentioned. Especially with MJD. He won't even come close to those #'s again. But if I had my top 4 to stay away from it would be this:MJDT.RomoB.JacksonAnd believe it or not: M.ColstonI think he is WAY overrated and will not put up those kind of numbers again in his career. They might be closer this year but only because of the fact that Meachem is coming along slowly.

Who is "B. Jackson"?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

QB

Tony Romo (thought he regressed badly at the end of the year)

RB

Larry Johnson (On one of the worst offenses in football, won't live up to his ADP)

Frank Gore (Great talent, but not gonna spend a high 1st on a guy who was healthy for the first time since high school)

Brandon Jacobs (No upside at all and with his running style if they give him 200+ carries his body will get beaten to a pulp)

WR

Colston (Not ready to buy into him after one season at where he's getting drafted)

Darrell Jackson (Way too many injury concerns and while he was solid he was never lights out in a much better Seattle offense)

You are crazy, it would be virtually impossible for LJ not to be RB3.

I disagree with that statement as well. The o-line and QB situation is a wreck and the only receiving option is Gonzales.Not impossible, but likely, I'd say.

 

[ceo3west]

QB

Tony Romo (thought he regressed badly at the end of the year)

RB

Larry Johnson (On one of the worst offenses in football, won't live up to his ADP)

Frank Gore (Great talent, but not gonna spend a high 1st on a guy who was healthy for the first time since high school)

Brandon Jacobs (No upside at all and with his running style if they give him 200+ carries his body will get beaten to a pulp)

WR

Colston (Not ready to buy into him after one season at where he's getting drafted)

Darrell Jackson (Way too many injury concerns and while he was solid he was never lights out in a much better Seattle offense)

You are crazy, it would be virtually impossible for LJ not to be RB3.

History shows that one of the [consensus] top 3 RB's taken every year are outright busts, for one reason or another. Go back as far as you want, it happens every year. Last year it was Alexander, two years ago it was Holmes. So this year, your choices are LT, S Jax or LJ. My money is on LJ to join that infamous list.

 

[Banger]

I'll probably avoid/won't have on my team because someone will select sooner than I would

Benson

Maroney

MJD