Jene Bramel
Footballguy
We discussed using a simple metric I called Tackle Opportunity early in the 2007 regular season, when we were at the height of the panic/euphoric phase of player production, as a way to decide whether a player’s poor/hot start was likely to continue. For those who remember that thread, I’ve tweaked the prior definition of TOpp for this spreadsheet (attached below). I added sacks into the calculation since the two prior variables (completed passes and rush attempts) did not take them into account.
A few of the usual disclaimers, as there will never be a simple statistical manipulation to pin down IDP value in 11-man team defensive football.
For any statistics
in the crowd, a calculation of standard deviation for this data set would yield very few teams as outliers each year. In other words, this data set isn’t going to spit out 10 names at each position to consider as buy low, sell high types for the following season. Early in the season, however, there will be a number of teams clearly outside of the range of a 1-2x standard deviation. Therefore, I think this metric may well prove more valuable in Weeks 3-5 than at any other point of the season.
Possible uses for this metric?
1. Determine buy low candidates early in the season and/or provide a reason to re-consider whether dropping an underperforming starter is the right decision.
When I first considered using Tackle Opportunity as a metric, I made the horribly vexing Titan trio of Keith Bulluck, Chris Hope and Kyle Vanden Bosch the poster boys for its use. The Titans were plugging along at a TOpp of less than 41 opps/gm through five weeks, a value well outside the +/- 2 st dev range. Even though the Tennessee defense was clearly better than in 2006, a regression toward the mean was likely. Unfortunately, Bulluck continued to ruin IDP owners weekly scores, but Hope was improving before his neck injury and Vanden Bosch finished 7th among DL in FBG scoring. The Reading the Defense article also used TOpp to predict that James Farrior, Ray Lewis, Kirk Morrison and LaRon Landry would improve. Farrior’s TOpp remained significantly low and Landry was killed by a position switch, but Morrison’s numbers rebounded into top ten territory by year’s end. Lewis (#14) may also have cracked the top ten had his season not ended two weeks early.
I’m planning on taking a hard look at the TOpp metric again during the first 4-6 weeks of 2008 to test its predictive value again. I know, this really doesn’t seem like rocket science, yet nearly every name in the past paragraph had his own thread in this Forum looking for an explanation for a slow start.
2. Identify teams who are likely to see major changes in Tackle Opportunity the following year.
Despite acknowledging that a true statistical measure will identify only a very few teams as outliers each season, I think considering the top and bottom 7-8 teams on this list at year’s end is a worthwhile exercise.
Consider the case of EJ Henderson. Henderson has long been considered a talented linebacker, but had yet to find his niche in the NFL. He finished 2006 with a very pedestrian 77 solo tackles. However, the Vikings defense was an interesting study in contrast – a stud run defense and porous pass defense resulted in the fourth worst TOpp in the league. Hindsight is always 20/20, yet it likely was a safe bet that one of the league’s best run defenses (only 21 rush att/gm) would regress some. In 2007, the Vikings TOpp jumped by six opps/gm to 8th best in the NFL. Henderson, despite improved run support from Cedric Griffin and a solid effort from Chad Greenway, finished with 18 more tackles in 2007.
Using the same thought process, a player like Omar Gaither, whose Philadelphia Eagles finished 29th overall in TOpp this year might be in line for a nice increase in production next year. Troy Polamalu, who had to struggle against injury and the league worst TOpp in 2007, is another. And Paris Lenon will need every bit of his team’s top overall TOpp to repeat his 88 solo tackle performance in 2008. There are likely other opportunities to take advantage of for those who want to delve into the metric more deeply.
3. Identify players who under- or over-performed their Tackle Opportunity.
Worried about which Nick Barnett will show in 2008? Consider that Barnett ran up his stud tackle numbers despite the fifth worst TOpp in the league. There are other reasons to feel safe as a Barnett owner, but that combination certainly helps. What about Patrick Willis, who benefited from the second highest TOpp this year? I’d argue that his ridiculous 137 solo tackles were even better than his TOpp would have allowed. Maybe a stretch, but I doubt Willis falls under 100 solos in 2008 without an injury or a huge reverse in TOpp. On the other hand, I’d be extremely nervous drafting and relying on Keith Brooking next year. Brooking managed only 84 solos despite the fourth best TOpp in the league. Had he seen significantly less TOpp, we could make the tougher, against-the-grain argument that age hadn’t eroded his skills.
Could all of these conclusions be arrived at by other, less statistical measures? Maybe. Considering a metric like this could be taking the long way to find the obvious answer. Still, I’d wager that we’ll see thread about a number of the 2007 situations and similar ones in 2008. Nothing against a gut approach – I
feeling out upside – but a little extra statistical push makes those vexing decisions a little easier.
Right?
2007_Tackle_Opportunity.xls
A few of the usual disclaimers, as there will never be a simple statistical manipulation to pin down IDP value in 11-man team defensive football.
For any statistics
in the crowd, a calculation of standard deviation for this data set would yield very few teams as outliers each year. In other words, this data set isn’t going to spit out 10 names at each position to consider as buy low, sell high types for the following season. Early in the season, however, there will be a number of teams clearly outside of the range of a 1-2x standard deviation. Therefore, I think this metric may well prove more valuable in Weeks 3-5 than at any other point of the season.Possible uses for this metric?
1. Determine buy low candidates early in the season and/or provide a reason to re-consider whether dropping an underperforming starter is the right decision.
When I first considered using Tackle Opportunity as a metric, I made the horribly vexing Titan trio of Keith Bulluck, Chris Hope and Kyle Vanden Bosch the poster boys for its use. The Titans were plugging along at a TOpp of less than 41 opps/gm through five weeks, a value well outside the +/- 2 st dev range. Even though the Tennessee defense was clearly better than in 2006, a regression toward the mean was likely. Unfortunately, Bulluck continued to ruin IDP owners weekly scores, but Hope was improving before his neck injury and Vanden Bosch finished 7th among DL in FBG scoring. The Reading the Defense article also used TOpp to predict that James Farrior, Ray Lewis, Kirk Morrison and LaRon Landry would improve. Farrior’s TOpp remained significantly low and Landry was killed by a position switch, but Morrison’s numbers rebounded into top ten territory by year’s end. Lewis (#14) may also have cracked the top ten had his season not ended two weeks early.
I’m planning on taking a hard look at the TOpp metric again during the first 4-6 weeks of 2008 to test its predictive value again. I know, this really doesn’t seem like rocket science, yet nearly every name in the past paragraph had his own thread in this Forum looking for an explanation for a slow start.
2. Identify teams who are likely to see major changes in Tackle Opportunity the following year.
Despite acknowledging that a true statistical measure will identify only a very few teams as outliers each season, I think considering the top and bottom 7-8 teams on this list at year’s end is a worthwhile exercise.
Consider the case of EJ Henderson. Henderson has long been considered a talented linebacker, but had yet to find his niche in the NFL. He finished 2006 with a very pedestrian 77 solo tackles. However, the Vikings defense was an interesting study in contrast – a stud run defense and porous pass defense resulted in the fourth worst TOpp in the league. Hindsight is always 20/20, yet it likely was a safe bet that one of the league’s best run defenses (only 21 rush att/gm) would regress some. In 2007, the Vikings TOpp jumped by six opps/gm to 8th best in the NFL. Henderson, despite improved run support from Cedric Griffin and a solid effort from Chad Greenway, finished with 18 more tackles in 2007.
Using the same thought process, a player like Omar Gaither, whose Philadelphia Eagles finished 29th overall in TOpp this year might be in line for a nice increase in production next year. Troy Polamalu, who had to struggle against injury and the league worst TOpp in 2007, is another. And Paris Lenon will need every bit of his team’s top overall TOpp to repeat his 88 solo tackle performance in 2008. There are likely other opportunities to take advantage of for those who want to delve into the metric more deeply.
3. Identify players who under- or over-performed their Tackle Opportunity.
Worried about which Nick Barnett will show in 2008? Consider that Barnett ran up his stud tackle numbers despite the fifth worst TOpp in the league. There are other reasons to feel safe as a Barnett owner, but that combination certainly helps. What about Patrick Willis, who benefited from the second highest TOpp this year? I’d argue that his ridiculous 137 solo tackles were even better than his TOpp would have allowed. Maybe a stretch, but I doubt Willis falls under 100 solos in 2008 without an injury or a huge reverse in TOpp. On the other hand, I’d be extremely nervous drafting and relying on Keith Brooking next year. Brooking managed only 84 solos despite the fourth best TOpp in the league. Had he seen significantly less TOpp, we could make the tougher, against-the-grain argument that age hadn’t eroded his skills.
Could all of these conclusions be arrived at by other, less statistical measures? Maybe. Considering a metric like this could be taking the long way to find the obvious answer. Still, I’d wager that we’ll see thread about a number of the 2007 situations and similar ones in 2008. Nothing against a gut approach – I
feeling out upside – but a little extra statistical push makes those vexing decisions a little easier.Right?
2007_Tackle_Opportunity.xls
Tennessee is quite a ways down on Jene's list in terms of TK OPP/GM. I understand that Thornton is listed as a traditional SLB, but I understand that the TEN scheme really uses the weak/strong side LBs interchangeably.Can someone verify this?Even if this is the case, I'd have expected Bullock and Thornton to have similar numbers unless TEN dropped Bullock into coverage more last year.