Gabbert, Kaepernick, Locker, Ponder, Tebow (1 Viewer)

[Boccioni]

Given what we have seen so far, who among Gabbert, Kapernick, Locker, Ponder and Tebow do we think are most likely to emerge as starting QBs in 2012? (By way of background, I am in a dynasty league where one can start multiple QBs.)

Gabbert and Kaepernick showed flashes of talent early in the preseason, and favorable reports were emerging from camp, but both seem to have faltered in recent weeks. It appears like Locker and Ponder have failed to impress much at all. At various points in recent days, some or all of these names have been mentioned as #3 on the depth charts. And we all know about Tebow's misadventures, but his upside his huge as evidenced by his stats last year; the Broncos seem intent on giving him at least some playing time at the goal line this year; and with Orton and Quinn free agents next year, it could be that the Broncos would finally find themselves in start or trade mode for Tebow in the offseason.

What do people think? Anyone local in JAX or SF who can provide some insight into the teams' thinking on Gabbert and Kaepernick in particular? Or is this the year, as some had anticipated even before the NFL draft, where the rookie QB talent pool is so thin that one should avoid trying to incubate a rookie QB altogether?

Thanks everyone.

 

[JaxBill]

Supposedly Gabbert is the third QB now, but I think that's just JDR trying to minimize the calls by the fans to bench Garrard. Look at the Jags schedule. First half of their schedule has them playing NYJ, NO, BAL, PIT - all teams that bring plenty of pressure. IMO, you see Gabbert after the bye - if the Jags' porous OL doesn't get Garrard killed before then.

I know coaches aren't supposed to listen to the fans but the Jags need to sell tickets. The outcry is only going to get louder after the Jags run into those buzzsaws early.

 

[Abraham]

Locker has not been number three at any point.

 

[Abraham]

To the question at hand, all the players you mention will enter 2012 camp as starters with the possible exceptions of ponder and kaepernick. Smith and mcnabb may hold them off two years instead of one.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

Locker sure looked impressive to me. Yes he's a rookie and dumb plays are sometimes a part of the deal but I haven't seen or heard anything that would indicate the Titans are anything but thrilled to have picked him. I would say after the early returns that he's the one you would want to own in a dynasty league. Ponder was drafted high so he'll likely get a look sometime but his relative lack of arm strength would seem to limit his upside going forward. Kaepernick and Gabbert look like longer term projects to me which makes them riskier prospects in 2012. Tebow is anybody's guess.

 

[Boccioni]

Locker sure looked impressive to me. Yes he's a rookie and dumb plays are sometimes a part of the deal but I haven't seen or heard anything that would indicate the Titans are anything but thrilled to have picked him. I would say after the early returns that he's the one you would want to own in a dynasty league. Ponder was drafted high so he'll likely get a look sometime but his relative lack of arm strength would seem to limit his upside going forward. Kaepernick and Gabbert look like longer term projects to me which makes them riskier prospects in 2012. Tebow is anybody's guess.

Right, I should clarify that Locker looked fantastic in his final preseason game (15/17 for 132 yards and a TD). Previously, he had been uneven. Still, for the reasons you mentioned, he might be the brightest star in the class at this point (other than Newton and Dalton).

 

[jonboltz]

If you believe Tebow will be starting in 2012, he would have to be top on the list for fantasy purposes.

 

[Donnybrook]

Given what we have seen so far, who among Gabbert, Kapernick, Locker, Ponder and Tebow do we think are most likely to emerge as starting QBs in 2012? (By way of background, I am in a dynasty league where one can start multiple QBs.)

Gabbert and Kaepernick showed flashes of talent early in the preseason, and favorable reports were emerging from camp, but both seem to have faltered in recent weeks. It appears like Locker and Ponder have failed to impress much at all. At various points in recent days, some or all of these names have been mentioned as #3 on the depth charts. And we all know about Tebow's misadventures, but his upside his huge as evidenced by his stats last year; the Broncos seem intent on giving him at least some playing time at the goal line this year; and with Orton and Quinn free agents next year, it could be that the Broncos would finally find themselves in start or trade mode for Tebow in the offseason.

What do people think? Anyone local in JAX or SF who can provide some insight into the teams' thinking on Gabbert and Kaepernick in particular? Or is this the year, as some had anticipated even before the NFL draft, where the rookie QB talent pool is so thin that one should avoid trying to incubate a rookie QB altogether?

Thanks everyone.

Do not believe everything you read. I have watched Ponder in preseason and I have been impressed. He certainly did not do much wrong in the games I watched. He showed poise, did not throw an interception, escaped pressure, ran the ball well and delivered the ball accurately. He had 2nd and 3rd string Olineman jumping offside and couple dropped passes that contributed to his lack of statistics. Locker was also impressive but I will admit that I only watched one Titans game and some highlights.

 

[griff321]

Given what we have seen so far, who among Gabbert, Kapernick, Locker, Ponder and Tebow do we think are most likely to emerge as starting QBs in 2012? (By way of background, I am in a dynasty league where one can start multiple QBs.)

Gabbert and Kaepernick showed flashes of talent early in the preseason, and favorable reports were emerging from camp, but both seem to have faltered in recent weeks. It appears like Locker and Ponder have failed to impress much at all. At various points in recent days, some or all of these names have been mentioned as #3 on the depth charts. And we all know about Tebow's misadventures, but his upside his huge as evidenced by his stats last year; the Broncos seem intent on giving him at least some playing time at the goal line this year; and with Orton and Quinn free agents next year, it could be that the Broncos would finally find themselves in start or trade mode for Tebow in the offseason.

What do people think? Anyone local in JAX or SF who can provide some insight into the teams' thinking on Gabbert and Kaepernick in particular? Or is this the year, as some had anticipated even before the NFL draft, where the rookie QB talent pool is so thin that one should avoid trying to incubate a rookie QB altogether?

Thanks everyone.

Do not believe everything you read. I have watched Ponder in preseason and I have been impressed. He certainly did not do much wrong in the games I watched. He showed poise, did not throw an interception, escaped pressure, ran the ball well and delivered the ball accurately. He had 2nd and 3rd string Olineman jumping offside and couple dropped passes that contributed to his lack of statistics. Locker was also impressive but I will admit that I only watched one Titans game and some highlights.

I thought Ponder did some things good as well talent wise, but he isn't ready to be a starter. Other people seem to feel the same way, but agree that he needs time to develop. The intangibles like an internal clock and pocket shiftiness are there. It's hard to predict what exactly guys will look like in a year because they had so little time to get up to speed this season.I look to see how a guys negatives play out, like the big knock on Ponder before the draft is arm strength. It's looking like that was a bad take on being limited by an injury.

 

[Donnybrook]

Given what we have seen so far, who among Gabbert, Kapernick, Locker, Ponder and Tebow do we think are most likely to emerge as starting QBs in 2012? (By way of background, I am in a dynasty league where one can start multiple QBs.)

Gabbert and Kaepernick showed flashes of talent early in the preseason, and favorable reports were emerging from camp, but both seem to have faltered in recent weeks. It appears like Locker and Ponder have failed to impress much at all. At various points in recent days, some or all of these names have been mentioned as #3 on the depth charts. And we all know about Tebow's misadventures, but his upside his huge as evidenced by his stats last year; the Broncos seem intent on giving him at least some playing time at the goal line this year; and with Orton and Quinn free agents next year, it could be that the Broncos would finally find themselves in start or trade mode for Tebow in the offseason.

What do people think? Anyone local in JAX or SF who can provide some insight into the teams' thinking on Gabbert and Kaepernick in particular? Or is this the year, as some had anticipated even before the NFL draft, where the rookie QB talent pool is so thin that one should avoid trying to incubate a rookie QB altogether?

Thanks everyone.

Do not believe everything you read. I have watched Ponder in preseason and I have been impressed. He certainly did not do much wrong in the games I watched. He showed poise, did not throw an interception, escaped pressure, ran the ball well and delivered the ball accurately. He had 2nd and 3rd string Olineman jumping offside and couple dropped passes that contributed to his lack of statistics. Locker was also impressive but I will admit that I only watched one Titans game and some highlights.

I thought Ponder did some things good as well talent wise, but he isn't ready to be a starter. Other people seem to feel the same way, but agree that he needs time to develop. The intangibles like an internal clock and pocket shiftiness are there. It's hard to predict what exactly guys will look like in a year because they had so little time to get up to speed this season.I look to see how a guys negatives play out, like the big knock on Ponder before the draft is arm strength. It's looking like that was a bad take on being limited by an injury.

I don't think Ponder should be starting either but he hasn't had a bad pre-season. Why is he and Locker getting labeled as unimpressive and Kapernick and Gabbert getting the positve press. Arm strength is so over-rated just ask Kyle Boller and Jamarcus Russel.

 

[Young 8]

Given what we have seen so far, who among Gabbert, Kapernick, Locker, Ponder and Tebow do we think are most likely to emerge as starting QBs in 2012? (By way of background, I am in a dynasty league where one can start multiple QBs.)

Gabbert and Kaepernick showed flashes of talent early in the preseason, and favorable reports were emerging from camp, but both seem to have faltered in recent weeks. It appears like Locker and Ponder have failed to impress much at all. At various points in recent days, some or all of these names have been mentioned as #3 on the depth charts. And we all know about Tebow's misadventures, but his upside his huge as evidenced by his stats last year; the Broncos seem intent on giving him at least some playing time at the goal line this year; and with Orton and Quinn free agents next year, it could be that the Broncos would finally find themselves in start or trade mode for Tebow in the offseason.

What do people think? Anyone local in JAX or SF who can provide some insight into the teams' thinking on Gabbert and Kaepernick in particular? Or is this the year, as some had anticipated even before the NFL draft, where the rookie QB talent pool is so thin that one should avoid trying to incubate a rookie QB altogether?

Thanks everyone.

Locker has probably been the best rookie QB in preseason games so I have no idea what are you smokingAnd Kaepernick is just a backup, the future Niners QB is not on the current roster

 

[ShaneFalco]

Locker looks like the real deal. Freak athleticism, can make all the throws, and has shown above average accuracy for a rookie. I think he will be the best QB to come out of this draft, and his ceiling is very high. He'll be starting by the end of the year.

 

[SSOG]

I think of the players listed, Tebow is probably the least likely to be starting for his team next year, with Kaepernick coming in second. As for which has the most dynasty value... I think Tebow has the most dynasty value of the bunch, with Kaepernick battling with Locker for the #2 spot. That might sound like a contradiction, but I have no interest in guys who are going to come in and put up QB2 fantasy numbers. Fantasy QB2s are very cheap to acquire in dynasty formats- people let guys like Orton and Fitzpatrick go for a stick of gum and some bellybutton lint to be named later. I'd much rather gamble my bench spots on extremely high-upside plays, and one only needs to look at Tim Tebow's last 3 starts to see what kind of upside he possesses. Running QBs are always higher-upside than non-running QBs. Even Aaron Rodgers only ascends to the very top because he's always good for 300/4 on the ground- take that away and he's essentially Philip Rivers, who is a nice fantasy QB, but not a first round pick.

Or, to put it another way... Peyton Manning is awesome, but he only finished 1st in PPG once in his career. Donovan McNabb did it three times. Daunte Culpepper also had multiple #1 PPG finishes. That rushing production is insanely valuable in fantasy football, allowing less talented QBs like McNabb and Culpepper outperform possibly the best QB (and certainly the best non-mobile fantasy QB) of all time.

 

[mr roboto]

In 6-pt passing TD leagues the rushing stats are mitigated a bit for guys like Vick, McNabb etc. But I agree SSOG, Tebow has the most exciting ceiling of the 4.

Locker, in my dynasty league, is the guy I would want. No real comp for the starting job in the future, stud RB locked up for years, Britt has the WR #1 talent (but is a knucklehead). Ponder could be a solid QB with a job for years (Orton, Pennington, Collins) Wichita is nice in a start 2 QB league but won't win championships. Kaep is a project QB who may be a late bloomer.

Tebow WILL get his chance, soon. We'll know in a couple years who he will be.

 

[Abraham]

Of the qbs drafted this season for 2013 and beyond, the guy I want is Ryan mallet.

 

[Bri]

Locker sure looked impressive to me. Yes he's a rookie and dumb plays are sometimes a part of the deal but I haven't seen or heard anything that would indicate the Titans are anything but thrilled to have picked him. I would say after the early returns that he's the one you would want to own in a dynasty league.

15 of 17 with a drop is not something a coach forgets.He had a nice run that "everyone" said looked like how he ran in college. A young QB is not supposed to do so well so fast even if it's just one game. He should have had a lower percentage and thrown some INTs and...this surely threw a monkey-wrench in the Hass for 2011 plans.Munchak wants results and only results. He's sick of "good effort" being praised without results. He and his staff have been awesome thus far as the Titans coach. The attitude is definitely getting adjusted and yet he's not blowing everything up. He can't hold Locker to different rules than everyone else and the rook is sure to make mistakes. He could in 2012 and players might understand then. He can't allow their mindset to revert and that's paramount here. Let's see their professionalism. One could argue that everyone knows rook QBs make mistakes and get forgiven. I went on this tangent just to show this is not anywhere near as simple as just putting Locker in. I am totally expecting some starting LB and some DB to be pulled in week 1 for a missed tackle or somesuch. Munchak's not done.

 

[Bri]

And Kaepernick is just a backup, the future Niners QB is not on the current roster

What differentiates Kaepernick from Nate Davis and Alex Smith? I don't disagree with the above post. I think we'd know the answer if he was the starter or their future franchise QB. It feels very much like the next in a long line.

 

[Bri]

Supposedly Gabbert is the third QB now, but I think that's just JDR trying to minimize the calls by the fans to bench Garrard. Look at the Jags schedule. First half of their schedule has them playing NYJ, NO, BAL, PIT - all teams that bring plenty of pressure. IMO, you see Gabbert after the bye - if the Jags' porous OL doesn't get Garrard killed before then. I know coaches aren't supposed to listen to the fans but the Jags need to sell tickets. The outcry is only going to get louder after the Jags run into those buzzsaws early.

Let me be the first to say that if this happens JDR gets fired. We've seen it a thousand times that young QB=not winning and a coach is quickly gone. Garrard has to get hurt or Gabbert has to "rock." He can't just sub Gabbert in and get typical rookie play from Gabbert. I don't expect them to beat any of those four. If they do, that's in JDR's favor. Jags fans are going to have to deal with 2011. Gabbert isn't putting them in the playoffs and they're more than one player away. It stinks but...

 

[Abraham]

The o ly way locker supplants hass is if the titans fall four games under .500.

This team (rightfully) believes it can compete this year, which is why they signed Hasselbeck in the first place.

 

[SSOG]

The o ly way locker supplants hass is if the titans fall four games under .500. This team (rightfully) believes it can compete this year, which is why they signed Hasselbeck in the first place.

Or if Hasselbeck goes Full Delhomme on the Titans.

 

[fatness]

The o ly way locker supplants hass is if the titans fall four games under .500. This team (rightfully) believes it can compete this year, which is why they signed Hasselbeck in the first place.

Or if Hasselbeck goes Full Delhomme on the Titans.

Or gets injured.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Supposedly Gabbert is the third QB now, but I think that's just JDR trying to minimize the calls by the fans to bench Garrard. Look at the Jags schedule. First half of their schedule has them playing NYJ, NO, BAL, PIT - all teams that bring plenty of pressure. IMO, you see Gabbert after the bye - if the Jags' porous OL doesn't get Garrard killed before then. I know coaches aren't supposed to listen to the fans but the Jags need to sell tickets. The outcry is only going to get louder after the Jags run into those buzzsaws early.

Let me be the first to say that if this happens JDR gets fired. We've seen it a thousand times that young QB=not winning and a coach is quickly gone. Garrard has to get hurt or Gabbert has to "rock." He can't just sub Gabbert in and get typical rookie play from Gabbert. I don't expect them to beat any of those four. If they do, that's in JDR's favor. Jags fans are going to have to deal with 2011. Gabbert isn't putting them in the playoffs and they're more than one player away. It stinks but...

It stinks but it's true. This team has so many holes. I see a 4 to 6 win season coming. I find it hard to see Del Rio getting his pink slip, though. Wayne Weaver is loyal to a fault, according to many. Plus, he's owed $10M over the next two years. That's a tough figure to eat for a team in Jacksonvilles position.

 

[az_prof]

I think of the players listed, Tebow is probably the least likely to be starting for his team next year, with Kaepernick coming in second. As for which has the most dynasty value... I think Tebow has the most dynasty value of the bunch, with Kaepernick battling with Locker for the #2 spot. That might sound like a contradiction, but I have no interest in guys who are going to come in and put up QB2 fantasy numbers. Fantasy QB2s are very cheap to acquire in dynasty formats- people let guys like Orton and Fitzpatrick go for a stick of gum and some bellybutton lint to be named later. I'd much rather gamble my bench spots on extremely high-upside plays, and one only needs to look at Tim Tebow's last 3 starts to see what kind of upside he possesses. Running QBs are always higher-upside than non-running QBs. Even Aaron Rodgers only ascends to the very top because he's always good for 300/4 on the ground- take that away and he's essentially Philip Rivers, who is a nice fantasy QB, but not a first round pick.

Or, to put it another way... Peyton Manning is awesome, but he only finished 1st in PPG once in his career. Donovan McNabb did it three times. Daunte Culpepper also had multiple #1 PPG finishes. That rushing production is insanely valuable in fantasy football, allowing less talented QBs like McNabb and Culpepper outperform possibly the best QB (and certainly the best non-mobile fantasy QB) of all time.

SSOG, it is scary how often I agree with you. I think the only player we have really disagreed about was Marshall, and that was a question of degree.

 

[modogg]

i have to figure out whether to keep Kaepernick or Locker by Wednesday because i need to cut one of them. Locker seems to be the better prospect for now, but i have no faith in Smith leading the 49'ers much this year, and could see Colin getting more reps this year because of it. Both guys have value in my one league with their potential keeper value, i just need to think who may have the better chance of starting next year. So any other thoughts on these guys, I would love to read them....

My initial thought is Smith has a better chance of failing then Hass does, but i also wonder if SF can fail so bad they end up getting a good spot to draft a QB in the 1st round next year. i think i am leaning Locker because of this, but still going back and forth

 

[EBF]

I'd rank them...

Gabbert

Ponder

Kaepernick

Locker

Tebow

That might be a bit harsh on Tebow, but I don't see anything there that makes me think he has a future as a successful NFL starter. All of the buzz has been bad this season and he has seemed like a major gamble all along, given his lack of polish coming out of Florida and the gimmicky nature of his skill set.

I've been down on Locker since his poor senior season. He seemingly has no accuracy, consistency, or instincts. He's a good athlete and a competitor, but as is the case with Tebow, that isn't enough in the NFL. You have to be able to read defenses, anticipate, and make accurate throws all over the field.

I'm not high on Kaepernick, but he played a lot better than Locker last season and he's Harbaugh's guy. Maybe he gets a shot.

Ponder...meh. Don't see much to get excited about there, as Chad Pennington seems like his upside.

Gabbert is the most intriguing of the bunch because of his pedigree. I don't see anything here that makes me think future star, but I could at least envision him becoming a borderline FF QB1 ala Joe Flacco.

What can I say? I don't like this QB class much.

 

[EBF]

I think of the players listed, Tebow is probably the least likely to be starting for his team next year, with Kaepernick coming in second. As for which has the most dynasty value... I think Tebow has the most dynasty value of the bunch, with Kaepernick battling with Locker for the #2 spot. That might sound like a contradiction, but I have no interest in guys who are going to come in and put up QB2 fantasy numbers. Fantasy QB2s are very cheap to acquire in dynasty formats- people let guys like Orton and Fitzpatrick go for a stick of gum and some bellybutton lint to be named later. I'd much rather gamble my bench spots on extremely high-upside plays, and one only needs to look at Tim Tebow's last 3 starts to see what kind of upside he possesses. Running QBs are always higher-upside than non-running QBs. Even Aaron Rodgers only ascends to the very top because he's always good for 300/4 on the ground- take that away and he's essentially Philip Rivers, who is a nice fantasy QB, but not a first round pick.

Or, to put it another way... Peyton Manning is awesome, but he only finished 1st in PPG once in his career. Donovan McNabb did it three times. Daunte Culpepper also had multiple #1 PPG finishes. That rushing production is insanely valuable in fantasy football, allowing less talented QBs like McNabb and Culpepper outperform possibly the best QB (and certainly the best non-mobile fantasy QB) of all time.

The counter to this argument is a guy like Vince Young, who was a much better runner than Tebow and yet finds himself stranded in FF irrelevance because he can't pass well enough to crack a lineup. I would only endorse Tebow if I felt that he had the passing skills to hold down an NFL job.As bland as guys like Orton and Fitzpatrick are, I'd rather have them than Vince Young. I'm a big believer that you can't coach a QB. What you see is what you get. People fell in love with players like Derek Anderson, Charlie Whitehurst, and Vince Young based on their physical talent, and you know what? They're still the exact same players they were in college, with all of the same bad tendencies and deficiencies.

That's what would scare me with Tebow. He played on stacked teams in college and relied mostly on the physical talents of himself and his teammates rather than intricate passing skills. On the other hand, his passing stats were good and he had a decent rookie year overall. Stranger things have happened, but my hunch is that it was just a bad pick by McDaniels on a gimmicky college player whose skill set doesn't translate.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think of the players listed, Tebow is probably the least likely to be starting for his team next year, with Kaepernick coming in second. As for which has the most dynasty value... I think Tebow has the most dynasty value of the bunch, with Kaepernick battling with Locker for the #2 spot. That might sound like a contradiction, but I have no interest in guys who are going to come in and put up QB2 fantasy numbers. Fantasy QB2s are very cheap to acquire in dynasty formats- people let guys like Orton and Fitzpatrick go for a stick of gum and some bellybutton lint to be named later. I'd much rather gamble my bench spots on extremely high-upside plays, and one only needs to look at Tim Tebow's last 3 starts to see what kind of upside he possesses. Running QBs are always higher-upside than non-running QBs. Even Aaron Rodgers only ascends to the very top because he's always good for 300/4 on the ground- take that away and he's essentially Philip Rivers, who is a nice fantasy QB, but not a first round pick.

Or, to put it another way... Peyton Manning is awesome, but he only finished 1st in PPG once in his career. Donovan McNabb did it three times. Daunte Culpepper also had multiple #1 PPG finishes. That rushing production is insanely valuable in fantasy football, allowing less talented QBs like McNabb and Culpepper outperform possibly the best QB (and certainly the best non-mobile fantasy QB) of all time.

The counter to this argument is a guy like Vince Young, who was a much better runner than Tebow and yet finds himself stranded in FF irrelevance because he can't pass well enough to crack a lineup. I would only endorse Tebow if I felt that he had the passing skills to hold down an NFL job.As bland as guys like Orton and Fitzpatrick are, I'd rather have them than Vince Young. I'm a big believer that you can't coach a QB. What you see is what you get. People fell in love with players like Derek Anderson, Charlie Whitehurst, and Vince Young based on their physical talent, and you know what? They're still the exact same players they were in college, with all of the same bad tendencies and deficiencies.

That's what would scare me with Tebow. He played on stacked teams in college and relied mostly on the physical talents of himself and his teammates rather than intricate passing skills. On the other hand, his passing stats were good and he had a decent rookie year overall. Stranger things have happened, but my hunch is that it was just a bad pick by McDaniels on a gimmicky college player whose skill set doesn't translate.

I stopped reading right there. Give me a break.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Although his stats in the pre-season weren't that great, Christian Ponder really impressed me with his play, particularly in the final game against Houston. He was very calm in the pocket under pressure, did a great job avoiding defenders while keeping his eyes downfield, he went through progressions nicely, and he showed surprisingly good athleticism. His quick and easy release reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, especially how it's always a perfect spiral. The only bad thing is I'm still not sure if he has the necessary arm strength to make all the throws against #1 defenses. Still, if I had to put all my eggs in one basket of the names listed, it'd be Ponder's.

 

[SSOG]

The counter to this argument is a guy like Vince Young, who was a much better runner than Tebow and yet finds himself stranded in FF irrelevance because he can't pass well enough to crack a lineup. I would only endorse Tebow if I felt that he had the passing skills to hold down an NFL job.As bland as guys like Orton and Fitzpatrick are, I'd rather have them than Vince Young. I'm a big believer that you can't coach a QB. What you see is what you get. People fell in love with players like Derek Anderson, Charlie Whitehurst, and Vince Young based on their physical talent, and you know what? They're still the exact same players they were in college, with all of the same bad tendencies and deficiencies. That's what would scare me with Tebow. He played on stacked teams in college and relied mostly on the physical talents of himself and his teammates rather than intricate passing skills. On the other hand, his passing stats were good and he had a decent rookie year overall. Stranger things have happened, but my hunch is that it was just a bad pick by McDaniels on a gimmicky college player whose skill set doesn't translate.

Vince Young isn't the counter to my argument, he's another point in favor of it. Vince Young was a top 12 QB as a rookie despite not earning the start until week 3. Vince Young is a much better fantasy QB than NFL QB, because those rushing stats make a huge difference. If a pocket passer is a bust, you get Matt Leinart. If a mobile QB is a bust, you get Vince Young.David Garrard is another example. Garrard is 12th in points per game since 2007, despite being a mediocre QB on a crap offense, because he averages 300/3 rushing per 16 games. He's only topped 3,000 yards in two of those seasons (and he only had a pathetic 15 passing TDs in each of those two seasons), yet he's still a viable fantasy starter. Aaron Brooks is another guy who supplemented his passing numbers with strong rushing numbers and achieved fantasy relevance as a result. Those rushing stats allow QBs to punch way above their weight class in terms of fantasy production. The worst case scenario for a guy like Tebow is always better than the worst case scenario for a guy like Gabbart. The best case scenario for a guy like Tebow is always better than the best case scenario for a guy like Gabbart. I'm not saying that rushing prowess is the be-all, end-all- I'm not going to take Tarvaris Jackson over Sam Bradford- but it's certainly a strong bonus. And given the weakness of this year's QB class, I don't know that anyone has enough juice as a player to outweigh Tebow's (and, to a lesser extent, Kaepernick's and Locker's) rushing bonus.

 

[EBF]

I stopped reading right there. Give me a break.

Can you think of a single great NFL QB who wasn't a great player in college? Off the top of my head, it's difficult. I guess you could point to Tom Brady, but it's not like he was a bad player. He just had the misfortune of playing for a powerhouse team where he was competing for PT with two other NFL QBs (Brian Griese and Drew Henson). Even so, he started two seasons and set some school records. On the other hand, there have been countless physical specimens at the position who failed to progress regardless of how much coaching and tutelage they received. Derek Anderson. Charlie Whitehurst. Vince Young. Tarvaris Jackson. Josh McCown. Kyle Boller. Drew Henson. Jake Locker? IMO, QB is a position where NFL success hinges mostly on mental intangibles. Reading defenses. Anticipating open receivers. Sensing the pass rush. Staying poised under pressure. Improvising when plays break down. Throwing accurate passes at every level of the field. Countless teams have tried to coach these qualities into physical specimens who didn't possess them. Pretty much all of these experiments have failed. So while it's hyperbole to say you can't coach a QB, I think it's pretty accurate to say that players who haven't acquired elite intangibles at this position by the end of their college career will not acquire these skills in the NFL, no matter how much time and energy a team invests in them. Now...Tebow WAS a great college player, but the skills that made him successful at Florida aren't necessarily the same skills that the NFL requires. Nevermind the fact that the competition was amateurs. Lots of players light it up at that level, which is why I think college stardom is necessary for a QB prospect, but not sufficient.

 

[EBF]

The worst case scenario for a guy like Tebow is always better than the worst case scenario for a guy like Gabbart. The best case scenario for a guy like Tebow is always better than the best case scenario for a guy like Gabbart.

Not necessarily. What if you think Gabbert is a much better prospect? Tebow was a better college runner than Sam Bradford, but I'd still say Bradford had a much higher floor because he's a much better passer. Same story with Andrew Luck and Cam Newton. Cam is a superior physical specimen. Luck is a much better quarterback. Luck's floor > Newton's floor.

I'm not saying that rushing prowess is the be-all, end-all- I'm not going to take Tarvaris Jackson over Sam Bradford- but it's certainly a strong bonus. And given the weakness of this year's QB class, I don't know that anyone has enough juice as a player to outweigh Tebow's (and, to a lesser extent, Kaepernick's and Locker's) rushing bonus.

You hit the nail on the head here. No matter how good of a runner he is (and I don't think he's a special athlete by NFL standards, BTW), he still has to be good enough to get on the field. Otherwise he's just Tyrod Taylor.

 

[Hybrid]

Ponder and Locker.

Ponder has outstanding accuracy, is very smart, and is more athletic than most know. He didn't throw the best deep ball in college, but this might have been due to his arm injuries or not very good receivers.

Locker has inconsistent accuracy, makes questionable decisions, has great arm strength, and is very athletic.

While I like Ponder the best as a player, I think Locker is in the best position to have a major impact in 2012 since McNabb has a better chance of sticking around compared to Hass.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

I think Locker by far has the best combo fantasy upside and longevity of the bunch.

 

[SSOG]

Can you think of a single great NFL QB who wasn't a great player in college?

Off the top of my head, it's difficult. I guess you could point to Tom Brady, but it's not like he was a bad player. He just had the misfortune of playing for a powerhouse team where he was competing for PT with two other NFL QBs (Brian Griese and Drew Henson). Even so, he started two seasons and set some school records.

On the other hand, there have been countless physical specimens at the position who failed to progress regardless of how much coaching and tutelage they received. Derek Anderson. Charlie Whitehurst. Vince Young. Tarvaris Jackson. Josh McCown. Kyle Boller. Drew Henson. Jake Locker?

IMO, QB is a position where NFL success hinges mostly on mental intangibles. Reading defenses. Anticipating open receivers. Sensing the pass rush. Staying poised under pressure. Improvising when plays break down. Throwing accurate passes at every level of the field.

Countless teams have tried to coach these qualities into physical specimens who didn't possess them.

Pretty much all of these experiments have failed.

So while it's hyperbole to say you can't coach a QB, I think it's pretty accurate to say that players who haven't acquired elite intangibles at this position by the end of their college career will not acquire these skills in the NFL, no matter how much time and energy a team invests in them.

Now...Tebow WAS a great college player, but the skills that made him successful at Florida aren't necessarily the same skills that the NFL requires. Nevermind the fact that the competition was amateurs. Lots of players light it up at that level, which is why I think college stardom is necessary for a QB prospect, but not sufficient.

I can think of a lot more than just one. Brett Favre had a sub-55% completion percentage in college and threw just 7 TDs in 11 games his senior year at Southern Mississippi. He was a garbage college QB. So was Kurt Warner, who only managed to start a single season at that football powerhouse, the University of Northern Iowa. Trent Green might not be a hall of famer, but from 2003-2005 he was easily one of the 5 best QBs in the league, and he was also an absolutely rubbish college QB (5400 career yards, 23:32 TD:INT ratio). Matt Hasselbeck was also arguably a top-5 QB for a time, and he was pretty mediocre in college. I'd say that list represents 40% of the top 10 QBs of the last decade.If you lower the bar some, I can come up with a lot more names of guys who were good NFL QBs who were not great college QBs. Guys like Jake Delhomme or Marc Bulger. Hell, Matt Cassell had 192/0/1 passing for his entire college career, and his only start came at RB.

Beyond that, is this really the argument you want to be making in a season where Michael Vick is being drafted in the first round? You really think you can't coach up QBs? I suppose Vick just magically became a great passer in prison, and the fact that he now plays for one of the most renowned QB gurus in the NFL is purely coincidental.

 

[datonn]

Ponder and Locker. Ponder has outstanding accuracy, is very smart, and is more athletic than most know. He didn't throw the best deep ball in college, but this might have been due to his arm injuries or not very good receivers. Locker has inconsistent accuracy, makes questionable decisions, has great arm strength, and is very athletic. While I like Ponder the best as a player, I think Locker is in the best position to have a major impact in 2012 since McNabb has a better chance of sticking around compared to Hass.

The one thing to keep in mind with Ponder too? His current Offensive Coordinator. Anyone care to report what Matt Ryan's YPA was with Musgrave at the helm in ATL? Don't get me wrong...Matt Ryan >>> Christian Ponder! I'm just saying...part of it is talent/ability, part of it is the talent around him (crappy O-Line and suspect WR core), and part of it is coaching (Mr. Dink and Dunk in the passing game).I have to say that the first couple preseason games, Ponder looked like Check-down Charlie out there. He seemed to give up on the deeper routes almost immediately! However, that last game against Houston made me feel a lot better about him. Played with a LOT of poise, and showed some running ability and elusiveness I didn't think he had. I'm sure the coaching staff is also pounding the following messages into his head:1. NO TURNOVERS!2. When you're getting frustrated about three-and-outs, losing, negative reports in the media, et al....repeat #1.

 

[EBF]

You really think you can't coach up QBs?

Not to the degree required to yield an elite player.These are the guys that I would consider to be elite NFL QBseyton ManningBen RoethlisbergerPhilip RiversTom BradyDrew BreesAaron RodgersThey were all excellent college players. As the saying goes, "a leopard cannot change his spots." I've yet to see a college QB with serious flaws go on to become a consistently dominant pro. The guys who have accuracy and decision making issues tend to show those same flaws on Sunday despite all the coaching. And yet every year a team drafts one of these guys high thinking they can turn him into a different person. Didn't work with Boller, Whitehurst, or Anderson. Would bet a lot of money that it won't work with Jake Locker either. What you see is what you get. If a player can't read a defense and make accurate throws to open receivers under pressure at the college level, he almost certainly won't be able to do it in the NFL.

I suppose Vick just magically became a great passer in prison, and the fact that he now plays for one of the most renowned QB gurus in the NFL is purely coincidental.

There's more to it than sheer ability. Focus and work ethic are factors. Did Vick give 100% in Atlanta? The only person who knows that is Vick, but some of the tea leaves suggest that he wasn't giving anywhere near his best to that franchise. Supporting cast also plays a role. Philly is a friendly system with pass-catching RBs who create yards and speedy WRs who play to one of Vick's primary strong points as a passer (deep ball, i.e. arm strength). Also...Vick played well over a 16 game span. That's a small sample size. Even Derek Anderson played well over a 16 game span. I'd bet that most of his passing stats (QB rating, YPA, TD/INT ratio) will drop this season. Anyhow, Vick was absolutely a dominant college player and his passing stats were excellent. He also happens to have one-of-a-kind combination of running ability and arm strength. There are exceptions to every rule and when you have an incredibly gifted talent playing on a loaded offense perfectly suited to his strengths, I'd say he's a decent candidate to become an exception. Heck, he's such a good runner that he took Atlanta to the playoffs even while struggling as a passer. A one-of-a-kind talent, to be sure. The more compelling example for me is Favre, but I never saw him play in college, so I have no clue what he was like as a player (the stats aren't pretty). All I can say is that in the time I've been closely following NFL/NCAA football, I've never really seen a QB who didn't already demonstrate elite intangibles in college suddenly show those skills in the NFL. On the contrary, most of the ones who went on to become great pros were amazing in college (Roethlisberger, Rodgers) and most of the ones who looked like frauds in college failed as pros (Anderson, Whitehurst, Boller, etc). That's why I was left just shaking my head when the Titans took Jake Locker in the draft. Dude can't throw the ball at all. You don't want to use those premium picks on players who MIGHT develop the passing skills. You want guys like Luck and Bradford, who have already shown them. Tebow is interesting because at least he had good passing stats in college. That gives me some cause for optimism, though it's tempered by the gimmicky junior high offense that Florida ran under Meyer and by the very negative reports that have shadowed him from the Senior Bowl all the way to Denver.

 

[craxie]

Tolzien

 

[Chuck the Roc]

I stopped reading right there. Give me a break.

Can you think of a single great NFL QB who wasn't a great player in college?

Im going to go out on a limb and say the list of great college qb's who werent great NFL qb's is a lot longer.

 

[Sabertooth]

I stopped reading right there. Give me a break.

Can you think of a single great NFL QB who wasn't a great player in college? Off the top of my head, it's difficult. I guess you could point to Tom Brady, but it's not like he was a bad player. He just had the misfortune of playing for a powerhouse team where he was competing for PT with two other NFL QBs (Brian Griese and Drew Henson). Even so, he started two seasons and set some school records.

On the other hand, there have been countless physical specimens at the position who failed to progress regardless of how much coaching and tutelage they received. Derek Anderson. Charlie Whitehurst. Vince Young. Tarvaris Jackson. Josh McCown. Kyle Boller. Drew Henson. Jake Locker?

IMO, QB is a position where NFL success hinges mostly on mental intangibles. Reading defenses. Anticipating open receivers. Sensing the pass rush. Staying poised under pressure. Improvising when plays break down. Throwing accurate passes at every level of the field.

Countless teams have tried to coach these qualities into physical specimens who didn't possess them.

Pretty much all of these experiments have failed.

So while it's hyperbole to say you can't coach a QB, I think it's pretty accurate to say that players who haven't acquired elite intangibles at this position by the end of their college career will not acquire these skills in the NFL, no matter how much time and energy a team invests in them.

Now...Tebow WAS a great college player, but the skills that made him successful at Florida aren't necessarily the same skills that the NFL requires. Nevermind the fact that the competition was amateurs. Lots of players light it up at that level, which is why I think college stardom is necessary for a QB prospect, but not sufficient.

Tom Brady. Ok, sorry I kept ready after my original response. Let's look at some more. Tony Romo is another. Reading further into this, I can see your bolded point a little more clearly.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

As the saying goes, "a leopard cannot change his spots." I've yet to see a college QB with serious flaws go on to become a consistently dominant pro. The guys who have accuracy and decision making issues tend to show those same flaws on Sunday despite all the coaching.

Didn't SSOG just give you a couple of excellent examples of guys doing just that? Favre, Warner? Just how consistently dominant do you need the examples to be? Would every record in the book do it for you?Don't even the great QBs often start off very sloppy (Manning, Elway, etc.) and then develop into stars later?Coaching is big, and scheme even bigger in determining how successful a QB can be. If QB fits the scheme, and the team can get the most out of him, big things can happen to guys who had/have issues. Every player has weaknesses, it's a matter of the team playing to their strengths and masking the weaknesses where possible.

 

[Sabertooth]

For dynasty purposes I think two guys that are off the radar compared to your high draft picks are Josh Johnson and Matt Flynn. But they are closer to realizing their respective upsides (whatever that may be) than the guys you mentioned. Both have been coached by excellent staffs for 3 seasons already.

Both will be UFA in 2012 and will probably be at the helm of an NFL squad at some point this season or next. Right now I feel both would start for Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinatti, Miami or Washington. Currently, both behind entrenched young studs. They cannot hope to ascend their respective depth charts without an injury to the durable players above them. I think both could be Kevin Kolb, Matt Schaub, Aaron Brooks, Matt Hasselbeck type of players that could blossom in a different location.

In my start 2QB dynasty where QB value is paramount to success, I've stashed both and would feel just as good about either of these veterans as I would about having Locker, Ponder, Kaepernick, or Tebow. I think Gabbert is on a higher level than those mentioned.

After reading SSOG's excellent post regarding the importance of rushing QBs in regards to their ability to be a QB1 on your roster, I rushed out and snagged Johnson last night. In doing my research I found he runs a 4.5 in the forty. Furthermore, after starting a few games as a raw stopgap before the team moved on to Freeman, he has been getting exactly what he needed coming out, which is polish.

 

[SlevinKelevra]

Brett Favre had a sub-55% completion percentage in college and threw just 7 TDs in 11 games his senior year at Southern Mississippi. He was a garbage college QB.

Favre & Locker have exactly the same college pass stats

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/1651/favrelocker.jpg

 

[squistion]

If I were to bet on any QB of this group it would be Locker (and I have in my dynasty leagues). Two NFL franchises were willing to invest a top 12 pick on him. The Titans moved up in the draft to keep from the Vikings from taking him. So we have people from two NFL franchises who do this for a living, who pay their mortgages, put their kids through college and save for their retirement who literally were (and are) willing to stake their livelihood that Locker has what it takes to succeed at the pro level. Somehow I give more credibility to people whose job is tied to their ability to scout talent over an internet pundit who has never made a penny from his talent evaluations.

Yes, Locker has accuracy issues, but I read an interview with Dan Reeves (who has worked a good QB or two in his day) and he said essentially not to worry about that, that accuracy is something that can be improved upon with coaching, but the intangibles, like Locker's leadership ability, is something that can never be taught. After every interview I see of Locker I want to run out and buy his jersey, there is something in his personality, he has the "it" quality that I have seen in the better QBs. Yes, if he doesn't improve his accuracy he will be a bust, but if you look a little closer, his accuracy is fine on the run, it is in the pocket that he has the issues, so it is situational and I am betting that it is something that can be fixed.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

If I were to bet on any QB of this group it would be Locker (and I have in my dynasty leagues). Two NFL franchises were willing to invest a top 12 pick on him. The Titans moved up in the draft to keep from the Vikings from taking him. So we have people from two NFL franchises who do this for a living, who pay their mortgages, put their kids through college and save for their retirement who literally were (and are) willing to stake their livelihood that Locker has what it takes to succeed at the pro level. Somehow I give more credibility to people whose job is tied to their ability to scout talent over an internet pundit who has never made a penny from his talent evaluations.

Yes, Locker has accuracy issues, but I read an interview with Dan Reeves (who has worked a good QB or two in his day) and he said essentially not to worry about that, that accuracy is something that can be improved upon with coaching, but the intangibles, like Locker's leadership ability, is something that can never be taught. After every interview I see of Locker I want to run out and buy his jersey, there is something in his personality, he has the "it" quality that I have seen in the better QBs. Yes, if he doesn't improve his accuracy he will be a bust, but if you look a little closer, his accuracy is fine on the run, it is in the pocket that he has the issues, so it is situational and I am betting that it is something that can be fixed.

Is the bolded a fact or just a rumor? Also, there's a logic fail to your first paragraph, and that is every scouting department is willing to put their ### on the line for each of their first round picks, so using that as a justification for why a player is going to be good just doesn't work, otherwise every player taken in the early first round should turn out to be "very good".

 

[squistion]

If I were to bet on any QB of this group it would be Locker (and I have in my dynasty leagues). Two NFL franchises were willing to invest a top 12 pick on him. The Titans moved up in the draft to keep from the Vikings from taking him. So we have people from two NFL franchises who do this for a living, who pay their mortgages, put their kids through college and save for their retirement who literally were (and are) willing to stake their livelihood that Locker has what it takes to succeed at the pro level. Somehow I give more credibility to people whose job is tied to their ability to scout talent over an internet pundit who has never made a penny from his talent evaluations.

Yes, Locker has accuracy issues, but I read an interview with Dan Reeves (who has worked a good QB or two in his day) and he said essentially not to worry about that, that accuracy is something that can be improved upon with coaching, but the intangibles, like Locker's leadership ability, is something that can never be taught. After every interview I see of Locker I want to run out and buy his jersey, there is something in his personality, he has the "it" quality that I have seen in the better QBs. Yes, if he doesn't improve his accuracy he will be a bust, but if you look a little closer, his accuracy is fine on the run, it is in the pocket that he has the issues, so it is situational and I am betting that it is something that can be fixed.

Is the bolded a fact or just a rumor? Also, there's a logic fail to your first paragraph, and that is every scouting department is willing to put their ### on the line for each of their first round picks, so using that as a justification for why a player is going to be good just doesn't work, otherwise every player taken in the early first round should turn out to be "very good".

Not a fact, but they were impressed with his private workout http://rob-rang.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/13682485/28365518 and unconfirmed inside sources seemed to indicate that he was their first choice. And I guess my point with Locker is that I have seen predictions on this forum by some who hold themselves out as a expert on rookie talent that there is a 95% probability that he will be a bust, obviously the Titans didn't think so and their decision carries more weight with me than someone who just posts on this site and will not have to live with any career consequences if he is wrong. Yes every scouting dept is betting their future employment on their choices, but rarely do we have such a polarizing pick that some people think has absolutely no chance to succeed in the NFL (obviously the Titans believe they can fix the accuracy issues and his likelihood of success is more like 80% than 5%).

 

[johnadams]

Contract deals of the incumbents, if it makes a difference.

Ponder: McMabb 1 year deal expiring this year. Ponder seems to be the likeliest to enter 2012 as the presumptive starter.

Kaepernick: Smith 1 year deal expiring this year. Kaep has been overwhelmed so far and looks to need a lot more time. Hard to see niners bringing Smith back unless there's a big leap which also seems unlikely. But Kaep just isn't close to ready so you could still see someone like Orton in SF next year.

Tebow: Orton and Quinn have deals that expires this year. I have to think Tebow is either going into next year as the starter or traded to somewhere where QBs actually get developed.

Locker: Hasselbeck signed through 2013 with salary at 5.5 mil per year. Cap hit of 4mil if cut prior to 2012, cap figure of 7.5mil if on the roster. Hass is no stranger to injury so I expect that Locker will see some time this year, but I think the contract of Hass also indicates that TEN is looking to have Locker sit until at least early 2012.

Gabbert: Garrard signed through 2013 with salary of 8 mil+ in 2012 and 2013. Cap hit if cut in 2012 approximately $6mil, not cut at about $11.5 mil. Garrard is going to take a pay cut in order to stay in JAX. But I think Gabbert starts next year, no matter what else happens. But, with an experienced QB on the roster, it's no guarantee.

Given the above, here's how I'd rank their likelihood of posting usable stats in 2012

1) Ponder

2) Gabbert

3) Tebow

4) Locker

5) Kaepernick (though I still think Kaep has the highest upside of the five).

 

[killrobotkill]

For dynasty purposes I think two guys that are off the radar compared to your high draft picks are Josh Johnson and Matt Flynn. But they are closer to realizing their respective upsides (whatever that may be) than the guys you mentioned. Both have been coached by excellent staffs for 3 seasons already.

Both will be UFA in 2012 and will probably be at the helm of an NFL squad at some point this season or next. Right now I feel both would start for Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinatti, Miami or Washington. Currently, both behind entrenched young studs. They cannot hope to ascend their respective depth charts without an injury to the durable players above them. I think both could be Kevin Kolb, Matt Schaub, Aaron Brooks, Matt Hasselbeck type of players that could blossom in a different location.

In my start 2QB dynasty where QB value is paramount to success, I've stashed both and would feel just as good about either of these veterans as I would about having Locker, Ponder, Kaepernick, or Tebow. I think Gabbert is on a higher level than those mentioned.

After reading SSOG's excellent post regarding the importance of rushing QBs in regards to their ability to be a QB1 on your roster, I rushed out and snagged Johnson last night. In doing my research I found he runs a 4.5 in the forty. Furthermore, after starting a few games as a raw stopgap before the team moved on to Freeman, he has been getting exactly what he needed coming out, which is polish.

 

[JaxBill]

Supposedly Gabbert is the third QB now, but I think that's just JDR trying to minimize the calls by the fans to bench Garrard. Look at the Jags schedule. First half of their schedule has them playing NYJ, NO, BAL, PIT - all teams that bring plenty of pressure. IMO, you see Gabbert after the bye - if the Jags' porous OL doesn't get Garrard killed before then. I know coaches aren't supposed to listen to the fans but the Jags need to sell tickets. The outcry is only going to get louder after the Jags run into those buzzsaws early.

Let me be the first to say that if this happens JDR gets fired. We've seen it a thousand times that young QB=not winning and a coach is quickly gone. Garrard has to get hurt or Gabbert has to "rock." He can't just sub Gabbert in and get typical rookie play from Gabbert. I don't expect them to beat any of those four. If they do, that's in JDR's favor. Jags fans are going to have to deal with 2011. Gabbert isn't putting them in the playoffs and they're more than one player away. It stinks but...

It stinks but it's true. This team has so many holes. I see a 4 to 6 win season coming. I find it hard to see Del Rio getting his pink slip, though. Wayne Weaver is loyal to a fault, according to many. Plus, he's owed $10M over the next two years. That's a tough figure to eat for a team in Jacksonvilles position.

Yeah, 6-10 is looking likely. Defense still isn't getting pressure and the secondary still doesn't look great. The two highly drafted third year OL, Monroe and Britton are regressing and hurt respectively.I really think they are only starting Gararrd out of the gate in order to protect Gabbert from those defenses. The fact that garrard wasn't selected a team captain tells you everything you need to know about his teammates view him.As far as JDR, he can use Gabbert as his reason for why it wasn't his fault.

 

[thriftyrocker]

As for which has the most dynasty value... I think Tebow has the most dynasty value of the bunch, with Kaepernick battling with Locker for the #2 spot. That might sound like a contradiction, but I have no interest in guys who are going to come in and put up QB2 fantasy numbers.

I agree with your premise a lot and have overdrafted Tebow because of it. However, I think you're underrating Locker and Ponder's running ability. As far as physical measurables, Locker is pretty much a clone of Tim Tebow, only a little more than a tick faster. Locker ran a 4.59 40 which was in the same range as Ingram and Ryan Williams. And he has 20 lbs on both of those guys. Ponder has a lot of similarities to Rodgers in that he's not going to be a run first QB by any means but he is plenty capable of grabbing yards with his legs on busted plays or good coverage. And we've already seen that in the preseason. Ponder and Locker will both get yards with their legs if they are starting QBs.Other than 3 games of proven production, the only reason to prefer Tebow over the those 2 guys and Kaepernick are intangibles. Are you more comfortable thinking he will eventually be a long term starting QB? If his 2nd chance only amounts to about 12 games scattered over a year, either this year after Denver is losing or next year in a new situation, then that's not a great stash. It's not Starship 7, and I'd rather take my chances on a guy whose coaches (are obligated to) believe in him.

 

[jonboltz]

As for which has the most dynasty value... I think Tebow has the most dynasty value of the bunch, with Kaepernick battling with Locker for the #2 spot. That might sound like a contradiction, but I have no interest in guys who are going to come in and put up QB2 fantasy numbers.

I agree with your premise a lot and have overdrafted Tebow because of it. However, I think you're underrating Locker and Ponder's running ability. As far as physical measurables, Locker is pretty much a clone of Tim Tebow, only a little more than a tick faster. Locker ran a 4.59 40 which was in the same range as Ingram and Ryan Williams. And he has 20 lbs on both of those guys. Ponder has a lot of similarities to Rodgers in that he's not going to be a run first QB by any means but he is plenty capable of grabbing yards with his legs on busted plays or good coverage. And we've already seen that in the preseason. Ponder and Locker will both get yards with their legs if they are starting QBs.Other than 3 games of proven production, the only reason to prefer Tebow over the those 2 guys and Kaepernick are intangibles. Are you more comfortable thinking he will eventually be a long term starting QB? If his 2nd chance only amounts to about 12 games scattered over a year, either this year after Denver is losing or next year in a new situation, then that's not a great stash. It's not Starship 7, and I'd rather take my chances on a guy whose coaches (are obligated to) believe in him.

So 40-times and physical measurables means that Locker, Kaepernick, and Ponder will all have similar rushing stats as Tebow? Sign me up for all three of them, then... Unless, of course, there is more to QB rushing stats than 40-times and a guys height/weight.