GM's thread about nothing (19 Viewers)

[jplvr]

Just knowing I've seen that Jack McBreyer previously, I would have to wonder how he wouldn't be type cast as a gay guy all the time.

 

[Early_10]

I'm just going to go ahead and say it. To this day, I probably haven't seen Napoleon Dynamite all the way through. After trying 3-4 times.I just don't see the appeal. It's terrible. There are a couple of redeeming moments, but on the whole, it's just not good.Modern Family and 30 Rock both have more hilarity in a segment of their show than I saw in that entire movie.

My 16 yr old recommended it when it came out. That was enough for me to avoid it. When it came out on video hubby rented it one night. Terrible is generous.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

I'm just going to go ahead and say it. To this day, I probably haven't seen Napoleon Dynamite all the way through. After trying 3-4 times.I just don't see the appeal. It's terrible. There are a couple of redeeming moments, but on the whole, it's just not good.Modern Family and 30 Rock both have more hilarity in a segment of their show than I saw in that entire movie.

turrrible movie

 

[Radio Free Homer]

I'm just going to go ahead and say it. To this day, I probably haven't seen Napoleon Dynamite all the way through. After trying 3-4 times.I just don't see the appeal. It's terrible. There are a couple of redeeming moments, but on the whole, it's just not good.Modern Family and 30 Rock both have more hilarity in a segment of their show than I saw in that entire movie.

My 16 yr old recommended it when it came out. That was enough for me to avoid it. When it came out on video hubby rented it one night. Terrible is generous.

What an awful movie.

 

[McJose]

You guys are crazy. Napoleon Dynamite is genius comedy.

 

[Exit 1]

You guys are crazy. Napoleon Dynamite is genius comedy.

 

[kevzilla]

Serious question re: FF, specifically projecting/valuing every-down RB's. I'm just going to post it here, since I don't really like the SP and I'm only a casual player playing in a casual/dopey league.

As an example, the projections for Chris Johnson all seem to be around 2000 total yards, 14-15 TD, 40-45 catches link. But given the relatively high probability of injury for every-down RB's (and for less-skilled RB's, losing carries), aren't these too high? Shouldn't a projection, essentially, be a midpoint of all possible outcomes? How often will Johnson exceed this projection? Maybe 10-15%? Even my GB MOP says in the FBG spotlight:

2,000 total yds and 15 Tds plus his receptions. He is a no brainer as the #1 RB off the board. He is the 2nd coming of Marshall Faulk with less weapons around him. Johnson has the best chance to hit 2,000 total yds and 15+ Tds in the league, you're a fool to pass him with the #1 pick. And I am trying to be conservative in the projections but it's hard to project much worse. Only thing that can stop him is an injury and how can you project that out?

Well, it's possible, isn't it? The consensus seems to be around 320 points in a PPR league, but shouldn't it be around 280? 270?

As you said, you're a casual player. If it were me, I would not try to project injury in players that have not had a lot of them.

I don't think you should have responded to this post, for one simple reason: You are simply not intelligent enough to grasp what I'm saying.There are no NFL players who have an injury probability of 0%. None. Maybe kickers are close. And not just injury, but the probability that a player will have a bad year. Is 1450 yards, 8 TD, 25 catches the midpoint for Cedric Benson this year? Just taking total yards, will Benson be over 1450 50% of the time? Would everyone take the under on that?

Johnson was a bad example, because his injury and "collapse" probabilities (to borrow a term from BP) are somewhat low.

My bad. I'm not very intelligent, so I saw your statement that you were a "casual" player, and I translated that to mean that the average of probable outcomes was not something in which you would be interested. Pickles has answered those questions, so there is no point in rehashing them.I also regret responding to your post for another reason: by stating I'm not intelligent enough to grasp what you're saying, you probably came off as more toolish than you intended. Again, my apologies.

 

[Mr Clean]

I'm just going to go ahead and say it. To this day, I probably haven't seen Napoleon Dynamite all the way through. After trying 3-4 times.I just don't see the appeal. It's terrible. There are a couple of redeeming moments, but on the whole, it's just not good.Modern Family and 30 Rock both have more hilarity in a segment of their show than I saw in that entire movie.

turrrible movie

You guys are crazy. Napoleon Dynamite is genius comedy.

 

[Running with scissors]

I want to mention Full Metal Disney here just to move the topic away from Napoleon Dynamite, but since this thread is highly trafficked I'm not going to.

 

[UOFI_316]

Speaking of turrible things. Did anyone watch Shaq vs. last week?? He took on Barkley in golf. The point of the show is for Shaq to take on top tier athletes in their sports, and he picks to golf against Barkley who is quite possibly the worst golfer ever. One interesting thing out of the show is that because Barkley's swing is sooooo bad he now hits his drives left handed. For some reason the hitch is only there with his woods.

 

[shut it down]

Serious question re: FF, specifically projecting/valuing every-down RB's. I'm just going to post it here, since I don't really like the SP and I'm only a casual player playing in a casual/dopey league.

As an example, the projections for Chris Johnson all seem to be around 2000 total yards, 14-15 TD, 40-45 catches link. But given the relatively high probability of injury for every-down RB's (and for less-skilled RB's, losing carries), aren't these too high? Shouldn't a projection, essentially, be a midpoint of all possible outcomes? How often will Johnson exceed this projection? Maybe 10-15%? Even my GB MOP says in the FBG spotlight:

2,000 total yds and 15 Tds plus his receptions. He is a no brainer as the #1 RB off the board. He is the 2nd coming of Marshall Faulk with less weapons around him. Johnson has the best chance to hit 2,000 total yds and 15+ Tds in the league, you're a fool to pass him with the #1 pick. And I am trying to be conservative in the projections but it's hard to project much worse. Only thing that can stop him is an injury and how can you project that out?

Well, it's possible, isn't it? The consensus seems to be around 320 points in a PPR league, but shouldn't it be around 280? 270?

As you said, you're a casual player. If it were me, I would not try to project injury in players that have not had a lot of them.

I don't think you should have responded to this post, for one simple reason: You are simply not intelligent enough to grasp what I'm saying.There are no NFL players who have an injury probability of 0%. None. Maybe kickers are close. And not just injury, but the probability that a player will have a bad year. Is 1450 yards, 8 TD, 25 catches the midpoint for Cedric Benson this year? Just taking total yards, will Benson be over 1450 50% of the time? Would everyone take the under on that?

Johnson was a bad example, because his injury and "collapse" probabilities (to borrow a term from BP) are somewhat low.

I suppose you could do a weighted average of outcomes if you felt like you had any idea of what the relative probability was for certain tiers of output, but since that's basically impossible, I think most projections represent what people think is the most probable outcome.I think you're "midpoint" idea is a bit off since the probability distribution isn't a Gaussian curve (i.e., symmetric). If a player gets injured, their stats are horrible and so the outcomes are shifted down significantly. It's also not known what the probability is for injury and the distribution of time missed.

To do this properly, you would have to have some idea of the probability of various outcomes and basically do a weighted average. Since that's not really realistic, I think people try to do some kind of estimation of this sort in their head, but in reality, most go with a 90% of peak production model (or something similar).

Re: the idea of a "midpoint" and the probability distribution being an asymmetrical curve, you are correct, and expressed the idea a lot better than I did.Even though it's impossible to be perfectly accurate with a weighted average, I think an educated guess at a probability distribution is more accurate than the 90% peak production model. Poker has evolved in a similar manner, where hand-reading is no longer as simple as "I think x has ace-king and so I will fold/call", and now is a matter of constructing ranges of the probability of all possible hands. Of course, this can't be done anywhere near perfectly even with a computer and plenty of time, much less at a poker table in a couple minutes with imperfect information.

 

[shuke]

Did anyone watch Shaq vs. last week??

 

[Tiger Fan]

Am watching my first baseball game in a long time. GB gambling and let's go Twins/Rangers

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

Debbie Gibson turned 40 today.

I feel old.

 

[Clifton]

Have my buddy over tonight. We're kinda parting, gettin into some stuff. I ask him if he's hungry and he says "I could eat". I go to the kitchen and make him a nice meat and cheese plate, sopresetta, genoa, brie and fresh bread. All top quality. He asks if I have any mayo I tell him I'm not going to allow him to taint my preparation with mayo. I leave the kitchen and head back to the couch. He comes into the room with the plate and everything is covered in barbecue sauce. I went off on him. Asked him if he marinates his ribeyes and gave him a bunch ####. I was seriously fired up.

Am I out of line?

 

[Sammy3469]

Have my buddy over tonight. We're kinda parting, gettin into some stuff. I ask him if he's hungry and he says "I could eat". I go to the kitchen and make him a nice meat and cheese plate, sopresetta, genoa, brie and fresh bread. All top quality. He asks if I have any mayo I tell him I'm not going to allow him to taint my preparation with mayo. I leave the kitchen and head back to the couch. He comes into the room with the plate and everything is covered in barbecue sauce. I went off on him. Asked him if he marinates his ribeyes and gave him a bunch ####. I was seriously fired up.

Am I out of line?

Brie with sopressata? You definitely were out of line, sir.

 

[Clifton]

Have my buddy over tonight. We're kinda parting, gettin into some stuff. I ask him if he's hungry and he says "I could eat". I go to the kitchen and make him a nice meat and cheese plate, sopresetta, genoa, brie and fresh bread. All top quality. He asks if I have any mayo I tell him I'm not going to allow him to taint my preparation with mayo. I leave the kitchen and head back to the couch. He comes into the room with the plate and everything is covered in barbecue sauce. I went off on him. Asked him if he marinates his ribeyes and gave him a bunch ####. I was seriously fired up.

Am I out of line?

Brie with sopressata? You definitely were out of line, sir.

Also had some baby swiss and Jamon Serrano.

 

[UOFI_316]

Did anyone watch Shaq vs. last week??

I know. It was the only episode I have watched, and only watched it because Barkley's swing is so fun to watch. Wanted to see how the would make it competitive (each had a pro on their team and played alternate shot).

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Photo odds just got moved to 99.99%

 

[Tiger Fan]

3 ****official Tiger Fan undervalued players in PPR****

1. Chris Ivory (RB, NO)

2. Lance Moore (WR, NO)

3. Dexter McCluster (RB/WR, KC)

[/lhucks]

 

[Billy Costigan Jr]

quote name='shut it down' date='Aug 31 2010, 09:09 PM' post='12221341']

Serious question re: FF, specifically projecting/valuing every-down RB's. I'm just going to post it here, since I don't really like the SP and I'm only a casual player playing in a casual/dopey league.

As an example, the projections for Chris Johnson all seem to be around 2000 total yards, 14-15 TD, 40-45 catches link. But given the relatively high probability of injury for every-down RB's (and for less-skilled RB's, losing carries), aren't these too high? Shouldn't a projection, essentially, be a midpoint of all possible outcomes? How often will Johnson exceed this projection? Maybe 10-15%? Even my GB MOP says in the FBG spotlight:

2,000 total yds and 15 Tds plus his receptions. He is a no brainer as the #1 RB off the board. He is the 2nd coming of Marshall Faulk with less weapons around him. Johnson has the best chance to hit 2,000 total yds and 15+ Tds in the league, you're a fool to pass him with the #1 pick. And I am trying to be conservative in the projections but it's hard to project much worse. Only thing that can stop him is an injury and how can you project that out?

Well, it's possible, isn't it? The consensus seems to be around 320 points in a PPR league, but shouldn't it be around 280? 270?

As you said, you're a casual player. If it were me, I would not try to project injury in players that have not had a lot of them.

I don't think you should have responded to this post, for one simple reason: You are simply not intelligent enough to grasp what I'm saying.There are no NFL players who have an injury probability of 0%. None. Maybe kickers are close. And not just injury, but the probability that a player will have a bad year. Is 1450 yards, 8 TD, 25 catches the midpoint for Cedric Benson this year? Just taking total yards, will Benson be over 1450 50% of the time? Would everyone take the under on that?

Johnson was a bad example, because his injury and "collapse" probabilities (to borrow a term from BP) are somewhat low.

I suppose you could do a weighted average of outcomes if you felt like you had any idea of what the relative probability was for certain tiers of output, but since that's basically impossible, I think most projections represent what people think is the most probable outcome.I think you're "midpoint" idea is a bit off since the probability distribution isn't a Gaussian curve (i.e., symmetric). If a player gets injured, their stats are horrible and so the outcomes are shifted down significantly. It's also not known what the probability is for injury and the distribution of time missed.

To do this properly, you would have to have some idea of the probability of various outcomes and basically do a weighted average. Since that's not really realistic, I think people try to do some kind of estimation of this sort in their head, but in reality, most go with a 90% of peak production model (or something similar).

Re: the idea of a "midpoint" and the probability distribution being an asymmetrical curve, you are correct, and expressed the idea a lot better than I did.Even though it's impossible to be perfectly accurate with a weighted average, I think an educated guess at a probability distribution is more accurate than the 90% peak production model. Poker has evolved in a similar manner, where hand-reading is no longer as simple as "I think x has ace-king and so I will fold/call", and now is a matter of constructing ranges of the probability of all possible hands. Of course, this can't be done anywhere near perfectly even with a computer and plenty of time, much less at a poker table in a couple minutes with imperfect information.

[/quote

Can you nerds take this #### elsewhere?

 

[McJose]

Photo odds just got moved to 99.99%

Let me know how you like them. I went for a rather artistic-yet-playful feel. Sort of a Helmut Newton meets Anne Geddes.

 

[Exit 1]

This thread is being edited.....BE AWARE.

 

[pricklypete]

This thread is being edited.....BE AWARE.

I thought the Debbie Gibson pic was quite tasteful. Sorry.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I just got back from the doctor with Cal. Dylan kicked him in the eye last night and tore off the top of his cornea. Stupid kids.

 

[Dungeon Master]

I just got back from the doctor with Cal. Dylan kicked him in the eye last night and tore off the top of his cornea. Stupid kids.

Did he deserve it?

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Have my buddy over tonight. We're kinda parting, gettin into some stuff. I ask him if he's hungry and he says "I could eat". I go to the kitchen and make him a nice meat and cheese plate, sopresetta, genoa, brie and fresh bread. All top quality. He asks if I have any mayo I tell him I'm not going to allow him to taint my preparation with mayo. I leave the kitchen and head back to the couch. He comes into the room with the plate and everything is covered in barbecue sauce. I went off on him. Asked him if he marinates his ribeyes and gave him a bunch ####. I was seriously fired up.

Am I out of line?

Out of line? I think you showed some serious restraint.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I just got back from the doctor with Cal. Dylan kicked him in the eye last night and tore off the top of his cornea. Stupid kids.

Did he deserve it?

No. At least not for anything he did last night.The poor kid came into our room crying that his eye still hurt around 5:30 this morning. I got him an appointment with the doctor at 11:15. You could tell he was in pain because the whole way there he was saying stuff like "thank you for taking such good care of me Daddy. I love you."

 

[Mr. Pickles]

3 ****official Tiger Fan undervalued players in PPR****1. Chris Ivory (RB, NO)2. Lance Moore (WR, NO)3. Dexter McCluster (RB/WR, KC)[/lhucks]

Any non-homer picks?

 

[McJose]

I just got back from the doctor with Cal. Dylan kicked him in the eye last night and tore off the top of his cornea. Stupid kids.

Ouch.

 

[Tiger Fan]

3 ****official Tiger Fan undervalued players in PPR****

1. Chris Ivory (RB, NO)

2. Lance Moore (WR, NO)

3. Dexter McCluster (RB/WR, KC)

[/lhucks]

Any non-homer picks?

 

[Billy Costigan Jr]

I just got back from the doctor with Cal. Dylan kicked him in the eye last night and tore off the top of his cornea. Stupid kids.

Did he deserve it?

No. At least not for anything he did last night.The poor kid came into our room crying that his eye still hurt around 5:30 this morning. I got him an appointment with the doctor at 11:15. You could tell he was in pain because the whole way there he was saying stuff like "thank you for taking such good care of me Daddy. I love you."

Hand Cal a bat and tell him, "an eye for an eye"...

 

[Mr. Pickles]

3 ****official Tiger Fan undervalued players in PPR****

1. Chris Ivory (RB, NO)

2. Lance Moore (WR, NO)

3. Dexter McCluster (RB/WR, KC)

[/lhucks]

Any non-homer picks?

How charitable.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

3 ****official Tiger Fan undervalued players in PPR****

1. Chris Ivory (RB, NO)

2. Lance Moore (WR, NO)

3. Dexter McCluster (RB/WR, KC)

[/lhucks]

Any non-homer picks?

How charitable.

What exactly is the value here on these guys? They're on the team?

 

[jplvr]

I just got back from the doctor with Cal. Dylan kicked him in the eye last night and tore off the top of his cornea. Stupid kids.

Did he deserve it?

No. At least not for anything he did last night.The poor kid came into our room crying that his eye still hurt around 5:30 this morning. I got him an appointment with the doctor at 11:15. You could tell he was in pain because the whole way there he was saying stuff like "thank you for taking such good care of me Daddy. I love you." :(

Hand Cal a bat and tell him, "an eye for an eye"...

Is SLB Christian?

 

[Clifton]

Pulled an all nighter....had an appointment at 9:00 am. 33K deal went through....feel like a million bucks

 

[Running with scissors]

I want a t-shirt that says:

I



Juice

Why?Because I ####ing love juice.

 

[TobiasFunke]

I want a t-shirt that says:

I



Juice

Why?Because I ####ing love juice.

Would you settle for this?

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Um, let me try this again.

Hand Cal a bat and tell him, "an eye for an eye"...

About a month ago on vacation Cal got mad and threw a remote at him splitting his nose open. This could have been retribution for that. I'm not at all happy about this but it kind of runs in the family.

Is SLB Christian?

I haven't attended church in 25 years but I still have a feeling of superiority.

 

[Running with scissors]

I want a t-shirt that says:

I



Juice

Why?Because I ####ing love juice.

Would you settle for this?

I'm intrigued. And I think you know what I'm talking about.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Photo odds just got moved to 99.99%

Let me know how you like them. I went for a rather artistic-yet-playful feel. Sort of a Helmut Newton meets Anne Geddes.

 

[Billy Costigan Jr]

I want a t-shirt that says:

I



Juice

Why?Because I ####ing love juice.

Would you settle for this?

I'm intrigued. And I think you know what I'm talking about.

I thought you meant you loved "teh juice"

 

[Tiger Fan]

3 ****official Tiger Fan undervalued players in PPR****

1. Chris Ivory (RB, NO)

2. Lance Moore (WR, NO)

3. Dexter McCluster (RB/WR, KC)

[/lhucks]

Any non-homer picks?

How charitable.

What exactly is the value here on these guys? They're on the team?

1. Ivory is going undrafted in a lot of leagues (he's not even in the player pool yet at ESPN or at FBG), yet he will take over the "Mike Bell Role" on the Saints. The Saints aren't afraid of using no name people in key roles (Colston, Pierre)...this guy will score2. Moore was banged up a lot last year thus falling off the fantasy radar. In 2008, he was WR 14 in PPR leagues. Now part of that was due to Colston being a little banged up, but still there's no way Moore should be WR87 according to FBG (ADP 19.02). He's Brees' favorite receiver...as he has great hands and runs great routes. Think of him as Wes Welker dark.

3. McCluster is a stud in the making. He's been tearing up camp all summer long. Charlie Weis said this morning he would play him every single down if he could. His ADP has been shooting up lately (14.04).

These 3 guys will make a huge difference on fantasy rosters (when measured against where they were drafted). FBG is missing the boat big time on these guys IMO.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Pulled an all nighter....had an appointment at 9:00 am. 33K deal went through....feel like a million bucks

 

[jplvr]

Um, let me try this again.

Hand Cal a bat and tell him, "an eye for an eye"...

About a month ago on vacation Cal got mad and threw a remote at him splitting his nose open. This could have been retribution for that. I'm not at all happy about this but it kind of runs in the family.

Is SLB Christian?

I haven't attended church in 25 years but I still have a feeling of superiority.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I'm just going to go ahead and say it. To this day, I probably haven't seen Napoleon Dynamite all the way through. After trying 3-4 times.I just don't see the appeal. It's terrible. There are a couple of redeeming moments, but on the whole, it's just not good.Modern Family and 30 Rock both have more hilarity in a segment of their show than I saw in that entire movie.

My 16 yr old recommended it when it came out. That was enough for me to avoid it. When it came out on video hubby rented it one night. Terrible is generous.

What an awful movie.

I'm with him.

 

[That Little Voice]

Bought a new TV to be delivered next week. My ding dong feels bigger this morning.

 

[YSR]

Happy 90210 Day, everyone.

 

[zander_s]

Bought a new TV to be delivered next week. My ding dong feels bigger this morning.

Nice! That looks like a damn fine price for a 58"!!

 

[That Little Voice]

Bought a new TV to be delivered next week. My ding dong feels bigger this morning.

Nice! That looks like a damn fine price for a 58"!!

I thought so. I dont do the whole home theater thing so all the tech stuff is way over my head. But they deliver the thing and take my old piece of crap away for free, and no interest for 36 months cause i dont have FBG type cheddar laying around.