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Government Response To The Coronavirus (1 Viewer)
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
The suggestion, by some of the scientists (not all) that it’s just as deadly as the other variants, far easier to spread, and that the vaccines don’t work as well.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Oh yeah, that was a huge miss. The WHO and CDC hewed to that love for waaaay too long.
What could have been done if airborne transmission was agreed upon earlier? Investment into HVAC filtration? I honestly think that would have had only a moderate impact on transmission, certainly not enough to truly impact the overall trajectory of he pandemic.
Doug B
Footballguy
Something to note about the UK, though, when compared to the US -- the British never really got a handle on their Delta surge.
Not to say that the US can thrown dirt on Delta just yet. But take a look at the top-of-the-mountain numbers. The US has about 4.88 times the population of the UK -- to make the math simpler, let's just call that "5 times larger".
Like the US, the UK enjoyed a period of COVID calm before Delta kicked in. Going by seven-day averages, the UK's case counts fell below 10,000/day on 2/27/2021 and stayed there for almost four months, through 6/22/2021. Throughout almost all of April and May, they were below 3,000/day. Delta ramped up rapidly, very nearly quintupling their seven-day average between late June and July 21st when the UK reached their Delta high of 47,114.
The UK, however, never got on a true downslope with Delta. They had another Delta peak of over 38,000 on 9/9 and another pop above 47,000 on 10/23. At no point since their first Delta peak has the UK gotten south of 25,000 cases/day, and most of fall they've been well above 30,000/day.
So, how has the US fared comparatively through Delta? Treating the US as one singular entity can be a little dodgy since it's a huge place and different regions have had different Delta surges at different times. Still, you can get a sense that the US's baseline with Delta is a lot better than the UK's -- which is important because any Omicron surge is going to be laid on top of whatever Delta action is still going on.
Let's take that pre-Delta case number that marked the UK's pre-Delta lull, 10,000, and multiply it by 5 for the US. Applying that figure, the US had a briefer pre-Delta respite than the UK did -- not dipping below a seven-day average of 50,000 cases/day until 5/4/2021. The US drove the numbers down below 15,000/day for about a month -- early June to early July of this year. On 7/23/2021, the US's Delta surge had begun in earnest with the seven-day average rising back above 50,000 cases/day and staying that way ever since. The US's Delta seven-day average peak was reached on 9/2, 167,632/day.
The US's fall Delta peak, then, was proportionally equivalent to the UK's fall Delta baseline -- 167,632/day divided by five yields about 33,500/day.
Tying this into Omicron: It can be said that the UK is in a more vulnerable position than the US is with a new variant. Recognition of that vulnerability might be driving some of the more pessimistic Omicron press coming out of the UK.
Not to say that the US can thrown dirt on Delta just yet. But take a look at the top-of-the-mountain numbers. The US has about 4.88 times the population of the UK -- to make the math simpler, let's just call that "5 times larger".
Like the US, the UK enjoyed a period of COVID calm before Delta kicked in. Going by seven-day averages, the UK's case counts fell below 10,000/day on 2/27/2021 and stayed there for almost four months, through 6/22/2021. Throughout almost all of April and May, they were below 3,000/day. Delta ramped up rapidly, very nearly quintupling their seven-day average between late June and July 21st when the UK reached their Delta high of 47,114.
The UK, however, never got on a true downslope with Delta. They had another Delta peak of over 38,000 on 9/9 and another pop above 47,000 on 10/23. At no point since their first Delta peak has the UK gotten south of 25,000 cases/day, and most of fall they've been well above 30,000/day.
So, how has the US fared comparatively through Delta? Treating the US as one singular entity can be a little dodgy since it's a huge place and different regions have had different Delta surges at different times. Still, you can get a sense that the US's baseline with Delta is a lot better than the UK's -- which is important because any Omicron surge is going to be laid on top of whatever Delta action is still going on.
Let's take that pre-Delta case number that marked the UK's pre-Delta lull, 10,000, and multiply it by 5 for the US. Applying that figure, the US had a briefer pre-Delta respite than the UK did -- not dipping below a seven-day average of 50,000 cases/day until 5/4/2021. The US drove the numbers down below 15,000/day for about a month -- early June to early July of this year. On 7/23/2021, the US's Delta surge had begun in earnest with the seven-day average rising back above 50,000 cases/day and staying that way ever since. The US's Delta seven-day average peak was reached on 9/2, 167,632/day.
The US's fall Delta peak, then, was proportionally equivalent to the UK's fall Delta baseline -- 167,632/day divided by five yields about 33,500/day.
Tying this into Omicron: It can be said that the UK is in a more vulnerable position than the US is with a new variant. Recognition of that vulnerability might be driving some of the more pessimistic Omicron press coming out of the UK.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Lots of other things involved with treating it as airborne, but even just focusing on ventilation could possibly have had a huge impact.
The badly ventilated rooms – 60% of those studied, said canton Graubünden – came out with six times as many cases as the better ventilated ones.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
You've talked a lot about this for a while and I've paid attention - it's really weird why there hasn't been more done in this area.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I would guess a bit had to do with areas and $.
I would agree with para that it wasn't talked about near the frequency that distance, masking, and other things were. I know from our area it was brought up for schools and other things, but overhauling outdated systems could be costly and living in WI cranking the windows wasn't a super viable option.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I still wish this was something every public building was looking at a lot harder. Maybe once it's over the research will snowball into some action -- seems like it's a big deal.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Because they knew not everybody could do every recommendation.
This of course would give ammo to social justice warriors that have turned everything with this pandemic into a race struggle.
And before the reaction is no way, just remember that the committee for the vaccines wanted to kill more Americans of every race just so they could have a more equal distribution racially of deaths.
Eta: of not if
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
My guess is that improving ventilation is costly, whereas masking and social distancing aren't. (Or at least those things aren't costly to policy-makers, which is what matters for policy-making purposes).
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Alpha was scary. A novel respiratory virus circulating through a completely vulnerable population with no especially effective treatment is legitimately scary, even if the death rate wasn't as high as it might have been. There's a reason why "OMG look at this virus!" is a common trope in horror and post-apocalyptic fiction.
By way of contrast, omicron is just a mild annoyance. Unless you're not vaccinated, in which case that's your own fault.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
??
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Most likely, but not conclusively. I'm optimistic as well, but not to the point of nonchalance.
Doug B
Footballguy
Are we talking about the same thing? Don't seem to be.
Backtracking: I maintain that the unqualified statement "The vaccinated can still catch COVID!" doesn't matter because it ignores rate, frequency, or whatever it needs to be called to make it better understood.
Another way to express my take, perhaps: I say that the second sentence below matters a lot, the first sentence not at all:
- The vaccinated can still catch COVID.
- The vaccinated catch COVID at a much lower rate than the unvaccinated.
Doug B
Footballguy
I don't know who's flubbing the headline, but Reuters original one seems legit:
First death with Omicron variant in United Kingdom (Reuters, 12/13/2021)
The word difference may or may not be meaningful -- there's not enough detail about the death to figure it out. Not even the decedent's age.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I mean, we know with 100% certainty that omicron will kill some people. We could do without the headlines.
Doug B
Footballguy
It's likely true that vaccine efficacy is reduced, but it's a question of "how much" and "in what way":
Dickies
Footballguy
We do, but it tends to be just a mild annoyance when we do
Doug B
Footballguy
The other shoe: How long past vaccination, typically? I'm a lot more concerned if people a month out are catching symptomatic Omicron than I am about people 6+ months out.
Max Power
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Timing is everything (USA Today, 12/11/2021):
Also, law of small numbers. 14 out of 43 cases. No breakdown by age. Let's watch the rest of the film.
Max Power
Footballguy
So this is another case where we have to wait two weeks post booster to be at peak protection? And how long does peak protection last?
We're moving to 3 month boosters aren't we...
Doug B
Footballguy
Can't tell from what Wallensky said. Could've been people less than 48 hours out from their boosters. Could have been longer. Those specifics weren't given.
Also curious what kinds of symptoms (if any) these early US Omicron cases are presenting. They're finding Omicron cases through random sampling of PCR results, not from especially sick people showing up somewhere to get tested for COVID.
I've not been very complimentary of how government has dealt with the Coronavirus, either locally or nationally, but I found out about this program the other day and do think this is good:
https://covid19.colorado.gov/covid-19-testing-at-home
I guess I wonder why this is the first I'm hearing about this. Are other states doing something similar?
https://covid19.colorado.gov/covid-19-testing-at-home
I guess I wonder why this is the first I'm hearing about this. Are other states doing something similar?
Max Power
Footballguy
Shouldn't we know this? What does the medical community say about peak boosting? It feels like we're shooting from the hip with this. Get boosted, it will protect you, unless its too soon or too far from your last shot. In reality, you're already protected from severe illness from the first series of shots.
I disagree. The gestapo requirements for proof of vaccination/negative tests is a separate issue. The point of these tests is so that families/individuals can quickly determine whether they have Covid so they know for THEMSELF whether they need to be quarantining and/or seeking medical attention. This is about the individual, as it should be, and not the collective. We are not the borg.
The only reason I've had for testing (and most healthy low risk people) is for travel. And I assume a lot of people need it for their work. $70 a pop to have a health care worker give you the exact same test is a rip off. Plus, I thought all of them were too busy.
I guess if you get sick all the time these would be good for the individual, but knowing if it's the flu or covid wouldn't change my approach one bit.
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Doug B
Footballguy
From what data? It's too early on. We'll get better information as time goes on. Can't rush it.
You're last sentence is likely true.
As far as peak boosting specifically to be ready for Omicron ... I mean, what choice do we have but to shoot from the hip a bit? Can't do 10,000-person trials over 12 months for every curveball COVID throws. Sometimes you just got to make an educated call and go with it.
A couple months ago my GF started feeling like poop. She didn't know if she had Covid or just a typical cold/flu. We ended up going to an urgent care so she could get tested. She tested negative but it was a bit of a hassle. She ordered these and we now have them. They will make it much more convenient for us to be responsible in case we have reason to believe either of us may have Covid.
Unless, you have trouble breathing I tell my GF to stay home and treat it like the flu until you feel better. This panic about getting a test every time you catch a cold is ridiculous. Unless of course you are super high risk.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Other countries are way ahead of us on at-home testing. Earlier in the pandemic, this was 100% the fault of the CDC (for designing a botched test) and the FDA (which banned all tests besides the CDC's botched version, because as the saying goes, it is always wise to put all of one's eggs in a single basket). I don't pretend to know why we were never able to recover from that, but we haven't.
It seems like if we can pay for a billion doses of vaccines, it would also be a good idea to subsidize rapid testing. That definitely would have been a good idea this time last year. I doubt it's a game-changer now, but it's still better than harassing airline passengers about letting their cloth masks slip of their noses.
timschochet
Footballguy
Really sick of this.
Hey John I think you know I’m pretty much an open borders guy and I was pissed off at the way Trump separated families. But then I was even MORE pissed off when idiots like AOC and others starting using terms like “Dachau” and “concentration camps”. You know why? Because my grandparents were in those camps. And they had to deal with the Gestapo. The real thing. And asking for proof of vaccination, for public health reasons, has NOTHING to do with the Gestapo. So I will tell you what I told some AOC supporters a few years ago: stop using Nazi analogies. It’s offensive, it’s ####ed up. Just stop it, you have no idea what you’re taking about.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
I read the CDC is thinking a full 110 million American's have had covid
109 million of those had mild annoyances
and as time goes and the shots fade ... shotted people will get sicker and sicker and die more
Max Power
Footballguy
The same data we're using to tell all adults to go get boosted right now. Taking the shot doesn't come with a 0 risk factor. Shouldn't we at least know what the benefit is to accept this risk? Less severe symptoms for a couple months doesn't sound like a good trade off for vaccines without long term studies.
This doesn't look doctors and scientists making the right educated call. You can still get Omicron even when boosted.
I've got to run down a study from Canadian health officials I heard a doctor talking about this morning. It showed the more time between shots, the less adverse events were recorded in the patient. You'd think this would be looked at closer before we tell people to get more shots.
Whatever dude. When I have to show my medical history to some low level door keeper to attend a concert or go out to eat, that's gestapo level to me. We're headed down the dreaded "slippery slope" with this Covid crap. It's unfortunately that you choose not to see it.
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
"I'm afraid it is now clear that two doses of vaccine are simply not enough to give the level of protection we all need," Johnson said, citing early data that showed the effectiveness of a two-dose regimen is diminished by the new variant, but that boosters still provide a good level of protection
so are the shots protection or not ? looks like not
so are the shots protection or not ? looks like not
timschochet
Footballguy
Then I suggest you read up some more about the Gestapo.John123 said:
Everyone else understands what I'm saying. At some point, you should acknowledge that some of your issues are with YOU and not the people you constantly argue with.
Dickies
Footballguy
Max Power
Footballguy
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