Green Bay's House is Coming Down! (1 Viewer)

[Golden Gopher]

Lot of Cowboys hate in here, it seems. I don't know if they'll necessarily win, but I think it will be much closer than many people think. Sure, Green Bay blew out some bad teams at home this year... MIN (with Ponder at QB), CAR (when they were a different team than they are now), PHI (right after Foles went down), and CHI. None of those teams were any good, at least at the time when those games were played, so the perception that GB crushes teams at home is not exactly accurate. They barely beat the Jets at home (admittedly, it was Week 2, and I would say that GB is a different team than they were then, as well), and gave up 37 points to a bad Falcons team a month ago. They beat NE in a game that could have gone either way, and beat DET by 10 at the end of the year (in a game that was relatively close). If anything, I would say that GB tends to play good teams close at home, yet finds a way to win. But, I would be surprised if Dallas doesn't score at least 24-28 points on Sunday.

I don't think there is any question that Dallas will put up points. The question is whether or not they can outscore GB, obviously. Dallas has the better running game. I don't think that can really be debated. The main things that will determine the outcome of this game, in my mind, are will Rodgers be 100% (or at least close enough to 100% that he's not severely limited), and will GB be able to pressure/disrupt Romo. If they make Romo uncomfortable enough that he has a bad/mediocre game, it doesn't matter if Murray runs for 200 yards... Dallas won't win. But, if Romo is relatively well-protected, Dallas has a shot to at least keep it close.

Nobody that GB has played this year scores points like Dallas does. They've been in the 30's (or 40's) in 11 of 17 games this year. They've failed to reach 28 just four times (all of which they were still in the 20's). Any team that can give up 37 to the putrid Falcons should at least be somewhat concerned. Atlanta's offensive line, compared to that of Dallas, is like night and day. Take the Cowboys lightly, and they might get into a shootout that leaves them (the Packers) on the short end of the stick, so to speak.

My prediction is GB wins in a relatively high-scoring affair. Maybe not as high-scoring as it would be if the weather was better, but I think both teams will still find a way to reach the mid-20's at a minimum, with the winner more than likely in the 30's.

I'll say 31-27, with Romo committing a late turnover to seal the win. Of course, if that happens, the haters will continue to argue that he's no good, that he is a choke artist, etc.... even though he's probably a top-five candidate for league MVP this year.

On the other hand, I wouldn't be shocked if Dallas wins the game, either.

Bold #1: you minimized them beating the AFC #1 seed and then minimized them beating the Lions by 10 when Dallas just beat them by 4.

Bold #2: Points scored: Philly 474, NE 468, Dallas 467.

I have no problem with your prediction, just some of your supporting rationale.

I wasn't minimizing the wins over NE or DET. Just pointing out that they were close games, relatively speaking. My point was simply that a lot of people (in general, not necessarily those who have posted in this thread) seem to have the impression that GB blows everybody out at home, but the reality is that the blowouts were all against bad teams. They've won the rest, but they were close/closer games. So, if their first 8 home games this year tell us anything, I would expect a close game on Sunday.

As for your second point, I should clarify. I wasn't necessarily saying that nobody has scored as many points as Dallas. Obviously, as you pointed out, that's not the case. What I was trying to say is that nobody scores points as consistently as Dallas does. They are the only team in the league who has yet to fail to reach 20 points. All of the other high-scoring teams have done so. Pittsburgh failed to reach 20 five times, if I'm not mistaken. Indy did against Dallas, coindidentally. Denver (who scored more than Dallas or NE this year) only managed seven points against the Rams. Green Bay failed to reach 20 in three of their four losses. New England did so twice (against KC early, and BUF in Week 17). And, although the Eagles came close, they even missed 20 once (at Seattle). So, yeah, NE and PHI were the next closest to accomplishing that feat, but Dallas is the only team to do it. And, let's face it... Philly's numbers are inflated because of their defense/ST's touchdowns... Their offense wasn't in the same class as the other teams I've mentioned, and certainly not with Sanchez starting.

What does that mean? Well, nothing, technically. They're just numbers, right? My point was simply that I don't see any way that Dallas doesn't score in the 20's, at a minimum. If they do fail to reach 20 points, it will be because they played their worst game of the year, frankly.

So, based on both of those things (Green Bay playing tough opponents close at home, and Dallas scoring more consistently than anybody else), I would expect a close game in which the winner needs to get into the high 20's at a minimum, and maybe even the 30's. That's all I'm saying. Nothing taken away from NE, PHI, or GB, for that matter. Just saying what I think will have to happen, to win the game.

I think from a macro level, you have done a good analysis. The micro side of things may change your scenario. GB has had a week off to get healthy; Dallas played a tough game with Detroit and have several defensive players with nagging injuries. Dom Capers is definitely a coach who can out scheme you and the Cowboys have shown in two games this year (1st Redskins game and Lions game) that they are susceptible to the blitz. Detroit definitely did some things to get to Romo unblocked. I expect GB will try similar thinks and they have the linebackers to be successful at it. I think GB wins and while it will probably be close, it would not surprise me if GB ran away with this one.

I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. If I had to rank the outcomes, in order of likelihood, though, they would go like this:

1 - GB wins a close game

2 - DAL wins a close game

3 - GB wins easily

4 - DAL wins easily

I think 1 is much more likely than 2 or 3 (with 2 and 3 being fairly close, and much more likely than 4).

And, I get what you're saying about getting to Romo (I think that's the key to most of this weekend's games... which defense can "bother" the opposing QB more). I just have a gut feeling that DAL keeps it close this weekend. Not because I want them to (I really don't care who wins), but just a feeling.

 

[Vector]

Packer fans always talk like no one has a chance to beat them. Then it happens and they slink away for another year.

Idjuts.

 

[sho nuff]

If anything, I was paying GB a compliment. They blow out bad teams, and although they allow good teams/offenses to keep the game close, they (GB) still finds a way to win. But, make no mistake, they give up points (even at home) to good offenses. Case in point, 37 to the Falcons, a team with half the offensive line of what Dallas has.

Look at that whole game...not just after GB was up huge and went completely passive on D.

I don't think that game is very indicative of how they have played D all year.

Biggest issue they have had both recently...and even in the Pats game too...Redzone Offense.

Can't keep settling for FGs...and there is a huge concern about special teams units getting things blocked recently too.

 

[sho nuff]

Packer fans always talk like no one has a chance to beat them. Then it happens and they slink away for another year.

Idjuts.

Who has really said that? Other than Saber...who, btw, isn't likely being serious. And we slink away?

Hell, you rarely even talk about your own favorite team...you are either pimping the Seahawks or bashing the Packers.

But...glad you could stop by.

 

[TDorBust]

If anything, I was paying GB a compliment. They blow out bad teams, and although they allow good teams/offenses to keep the game close, they (GB) still finds a way to win. But, make no mistake, they give up points (even at home) to good offenses. Case in point, 37 to the Falcons, a team with half the offensive line of what Dallas has.

Was there and GB's defense basically cancelled playing the 2nd half in that game, everyone in the stadium thought it was Chicago/Philli all over again where the game was done at halftime. 31-7 going into half

Now they do give up points to good teams but the Falcons game was the tale of two halves, the worse of the two for the defense was when they were already thinking about where to go after the game.

 

[TDorBust]

Packer fans always talk like no one has a chance to beat them. Then it happens and they slink away for another year.

Idjuts.

http://packersinsider.com/2014/01/prediction-talent-and-extreme-cold-weather-favor-49ers-not-packers/

You were saying?

Also part of the reason Packers fans think they will win is 99% of the time they have the best QB on the field.

Just in the playoffs:

Favre - Top 5 QB pretty much every year (Troy Aikmen 3x, Steve Young 2x, Elway - only QBs better in 22 games - played Steve Young 4 times but starting in 1997 Favre had won the MVP and was considered better likely by many)

Rodgers - Top 5 QB pretty much every year (Kurt Warner - only QB better in 9 games)

So thats a total of 7 games over 31 that Packers fans felt that they didn't have the best QB going into the game and the upper hand at that position. You possibly could point to Favre when they played Warner but at that point many were considering Favre a top 5 QB of all time.

 

[ookook]

I think it is really pretty simple: If the GB defense tackles, they have a great chance of winning this game. If they do not tackle the RBs coming out of the backfield, it is a 50/50 shot.

 

[Gary Coal Man]

Romo is the only Cowboys QB to ever win at Lambeau. So he's got that mojo going for him.

 

[cowboyz1]

Rodgers calf sounds bad, the great equliazer... pure pickem game.. probably come down to kicking and based off last week, I'll take Crosby over Bailey... its one thing to kick regular season.. don't want those playoff yips

Don't forget, Matt Flynn threw 4 td's against the Cowboys one year ago, leading the Packers on an incredible comeback win after being down 26-3 at the half.

Lindley would have scored 4 TD's on last years defense.

 

[Sabertooth]

Packer fans always talk like no one has a chance to beat them. Then it happens and they slink away for another year.

Idjuts.

Except for when they win the Super Bowl. Which is about due again now.

 

[kwille]

Green Bay is going to control the game. It will stay interesting for the most part but in the end it will be GB by 10+. Kind of like week 17 vs. Detroit.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think a lot of it is going to depend on whether Green Bay can scored first half touchdowns instead of field goals. When hey score touchdowns early, they have a tendency to just bury teams. They haven't done that much lately though.

 

[TDorBust]

Romo is the only Cowboys QB to ever win at Lambeau. So he's got that mojo going for him.

Yup nice win in 2008 against a first year starter Aaron Rodgers and the 6-10 Green Bay Packers.

Romo won his first two starts against the Packers back in 2007 (Favre injured in 1st half) and 2008 (Rodgers 1st year starting) and since then has lost the next 2, so doubt there is any mojo anywhere for Romo after losing in 2009 (Rodgers) and 2013 (Flynn).

 

[Burl]

I think a lot of it is going to depend on whether Green Bay can scored first half touchdowns instead of field goals. When hey score touchdowns early, they have a tendency to just bury teams. They haven't done that much lately though.

Agreed. If Green Bay gets some quick scores and goes up by two scores, that puts a huge amount of pressure on Dallas. I already know they are going to say, "Well, it happened last week against Detroit and we came back and won." Green Bay offense >>>>>>>> Detroit offense.

A close game only favors Dallas, imo. It will be a good game, I look forward to it.

 

[eoMMan]

I think if the Cowboys can somehow score more points than the Packers, they can win this game.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Madden battle last night on Xbox - Packers (me) 21 Cowboys (my son) 17. We're both terrible at Madden. Romo had five picks. Just sayin ...

 

[Routilla]

Dallas 31-27, I hope.

 

[msudaisy26]

I think it will be a close game. I think Green Bay is the better team, but if Dallas plays their game they will win because they are a bad match up for the Packers. They have probably the best o line in the NFL. They may run the ball a ton and keep the ball away from Rodgers and the Packers offense. If they do I like their chances. If not I like Green Bay.

 

[Longtucky Lemmings]

I think it will be a close game. I think Green Bay is the better team, but if Dallas plays their game they will win because they are a bad match up for the Packers. They have probably the best o line in the NFL. They may run the ball a ton and keep the ball away from Rodgers and the Packers offense. If they do I like their chances. If not I like Green Bay.

Even if Murray has a good-to-great game I don't think it necessarily equates to a Dallas win. I can envision a scenario in which Murray goes 25-150-1 and the Cowboys still lose. These two things cannot be discounted; the Packers' ability to score quickly from just about anywhere on the field, and their defense's ability to create turnovers.

I would not at all be surprised to see Romo have a subpar game in a game that could be in the teens temperature-wise. Add in to this Murray's running style (ball in one hand, often far away from his body) and it is likely the Packers cause turnover opportunities. If the Packers win the turnover game even if they can't stop Murray they can easily win this game.

 

[msudaisy26]

I am more looking at time of possession. If Dallas is near 37 + minutes I think they win this game

 

[TDorBust]

The Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers! Sorry just got caught up in the moment are we talking about Seattle or Carolina yet?

 

[Mr.Pack]

Would feel a lot more confident if Rodgers was practicing this week. Thursday and he still hasn't, hopefully they are just being extra careful, but don't like a calf injury in the cold weather. Think it's going to be a close game, and every time people predict a shoot out it ends up being a defensive struggle. Hope the Packer D can continue to play well...

He took 60% of the snaps yesterday.

 

[Manster]

The Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers! Sorry just got caught up in the moment are we talking about Seattle or Carolina yet?

Lets go Cowboys!!!

 

[TDorBust]

Would feel a lot more confident if Rodgers was practicing this week. Thursday and he still hasn't, hopefully they are just being extra careful, but don't like a calf injury in the cold weather. Think it's going to be a close game, and every time people predict a shoot out it ends up being a defensive struggle. Hope the Packer D can continue to play well...

He took 60% of the snaps yesterday.

This is what ESPN does they hype of the issue but don't actually explain whats going on.

1) A tear determines the severity of a sprain even a grade 1 sprain has tearing in the muscle.

2) It ALWAYS was the plan for Rodgers to sit out until Thursday and then take somewhat limited snaps

3) Rodgers + Packers has always said he will be playing against the Cowboys

People yesterday at work were trying to argue that the tear is something new to the situation when in reality its all about ESPN and others trying to gather hype for the game on Sunday.

 

[Manster]

Bring out the gimp!!.......er....bring out Aaron!!

 

[thatguythere]

Bring out the gimp!!.......er....bring out Aaron!!

They should ride him out of the locker room on a cart this time. Or maybe like a Pope-mobile.

 

[Mr.Pack]

Would feel a lot more confident if Rodgers was practicing this week. Thursday and he still hasn't, hopefully they are just being extra careful, but don't like a calf injury in the cold weather. Think it's going to be a close game, and every time people predict a shoot out it ends up being a defensive struggle. Hope the Packer D can continue to play well...

He took 60% of the snaps yesterday.

This is what ESPN does they hype of the issue but don't actually explain whats going on.

1) A tear determines the severity of a sprain even a grade 1 sprain has tearing in the muscle.

2) It ALWAYS was the plan for Rodgers to sit out until Thursday and then take somewhat limited snaps

3) Rodgers + Packers has always said he will be playing against the Cowboys

People yesterday at work were trying to argue that the tear is something new to the situation when in reality its all about ESPN and others trying to gather hype for the game on Sunday.

I listen to the Packer insiders on local radio and McCarthy himself said last week that the plan was for Rodgerrs to rehab and not see the field until Thursday at the earliest.

Strain = tear, the only thing is not knowing the severity.

 

[The Westin]

GB's defense is playing much better since moving Clay inside once and a while. Murray may not have the field day many are predicting. I think Romo will have his way though.

I really think GB's 3rd down and Red Zone issues can be attributed to having no decent TE on the roster. If they continue to fail to capitalize in these situations, they may have trouble keeping up with Dallas' offense. Field Goals aren't going to cut it.

If Rodgers' calf is a problem, Lacy will have to step up.

I think it's going to be a close one. GB really needs to win a good playoff game after years of laying eggs.

 

[IheartGuinness]

I think the cowboys are guaranteed to win this. Rodgers isn't 100% and he's going to struggle in this game. The Packers have also had a tough time against good running teams. The cowboys should dominate time of possession and keep the Green Bay offense off the field. Both defenses are suspect, but I think the Packers will have a more difficult time stopping the cowboys' balanced attack and it will be a long day for the home team. I don't even think the score will be close.

 

[proninja]

I think the cowboys are guaranteed to win this. Rodgers isn't 100% and he's going to struggle in this game. The Packers have also had a tough time against good running teams. The cowboys should dominate time of possession and keep the Green Bay offense off the field. Both defenses are suspect, but I think the Packers will have a more difficult time stopping the cowboys' balanced attack and it will be a long day for the home team. I don't even think the score will be close.

I stopped reading here

 

[proninja]

I'm not sure who I want to win this game, as a Seahawks fan. Leaning toward Cowboys. Rodgers scares me more than Romo.

 

[Sabertooth]

Looking forward to it. I'm alway nervous for a game like.

 

[sho nuff]

I think the cowboys are guaranteed to win this. Rodgers isn't 100% and he's going to struggle in this game. The Packers have also had a tough time against good running teams. The cowboys should dominate time of possession and keep the Green Bay offense off the field. Both defenses are suspect, but I think the Packers will have a more difficult time stopping the cowboys' balanced attack and it will be a long day for the home team. I don't even think the score will be close.

I feel a bit better after this prediction...given your predictions about Packer games and Bear games this year.

 

[Mr.Pack]

I think the cowboys are guaranteed to win this. Rodgers isn't 100% and he's going to struggle in this game. The Packers have also had a tough time against good running teams. The cowboys should dominate time of possession and keep the Green Bay offense off the field. Both defenses are suspect, but I think the Packers will have a more difficult time stopping the cowboys' balanced attack and it will be a long day for the home team. I don't even think the score will be close.

/thread

 

[eoMMan]

I think the cowboys are guaranteed to win this. Rodgers isn't 100% and he's going to struggle in this game. The Packers have also had a tough time against good running teams. The cowboys should dominate time of possession and keep the Green Bay offense off the field. Both defenses are suspect, but I think the Packers will have a more difficult time stopping the cowboys' balanced attack and it will be a long day for the home team. I don't even think the score will be close.

/thread

Then why are the Packers still favored by 5.5 points?

 

[CR69]

I think the cowboys are guaranteed to win this. Rodgers isn't 100% and he's going to struggle in this game. The Packers have also had a tough time against good running teams. The cowboys should dominate time of possession and keep the Green Bay offense off the field. Both defenses are suspect, but I think the Packers will have a more difficult time stopping the cowboys' balanced attack and it will be a long day for the home team. I don't even think the score will be close.

I stopped reading here

Me too. And I'm a Cowboys fan.

I honestly expect Green Bay to win this game by at least 10. I don't have any faith in their secondary and think Rodgers is going to shred them. Only chance is somehow forcing some turnovers and putting up 35+.

 

[Manster]

I think the cowboys are guaranteed to win this. Rodgers isn't 100% and he's going to struggle in this game. The Packers have also had a tough time against good running teams. The cowboys should dominate time of possession and keep the Green Bay offense off the field. Both defenses are suspect, but I think the Packers will have a more difficult time stopping the cowboys' balanced attack and it will be a long day for the home team. I don't even think the score will be close.

/thread

Then why are the Packers still favored by 5.5 points?

Its down to 5.5? I've seen the line mostly at 6 or 7.

A TD seems about right to me. Rodgers at home, in January, is tough to beat. Romo will have to play close to flawless for Dallas to be victorious. That means no stupid picks, and getting the ball out of his hands quickly, especially when GB blitzes.

Some great matchups in this game! I'm really hoping we can come out and control the LOS with our hosses and Murray. I don't want to see Romo chuckin it all over the place.

No matter who wins today, I'm rooting for them against the seachickens.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I'm not sure who I want to win this game, as a Seahawks fan. Leaning toward Cowboys. Rodgers scares me more than Romo.

To be the best, you have to beat the best.

 

[proninja]

I'm not sure who I want to win this game, as a Seahawks fan. Leaning toward Cowboys. Rodgers scares me more than Romo.

To be the best, you have to beat the best.

If they didn't, that'd be even better. I want a ring, not message board respect.

 

[biju]

 

[cowboyz1]

That was one of the best games I have seen this Cowboys team play in big games, in a long time. Yes, we had a call go against us but that wasn't why we lost. Murray's fumble handed momentum to Green Bay and the defense couldn't get to a gimpy Rodgers. Game over. You can't turn the ball over in a game like this especially when you have nothing but green grass ahead of you. The defense just played their guts out but just didn't have enough in a game like this. Romo played his heart out. I love the fight in this Cowboys team and look forward to us being in the big show next year. I have no doubt we will be in the mix for years to come. Well done Cowboys and Congrats to Green Bay and their fans. They played like champions, both teams did. A game worthy of Divisional Playoff Sunday.

Now time to reflect and get Drunk on some Cowboys KoolAid

 

[sho nuff]

That was one of the best games I have seen this Cowboys team play in big games, in a long time. Yes, we had a call go against us but that wasn't why we lost. Murray's fumble handed momentum to Green Bay and the defense couldn't get to a gimpy Rodgers. Game over. You can't turn the ball over in a game like this especially when you have nothing but green grass ahead of you. The defense just played their guts out but just didn't have enough in a game like this. Romo played his heart out. I love the fight in this Cowboys team and look forward to us being in the big show next year. I have no doubt we will be in the mix for years to come. Well done Cowboys and Congrats to Green Bay and their fans. They played like champions, both teams did. A game worthy of Divisional Playoff Sunday.

Now time to reflect and get Drunk on some Cowboys KoolAid

Fun game with some strange calls...