Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Greg Jennings Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I think he will rebound nicely and is a huge value play in dynasty leagues.

90 catches for 1250 and 11 scores

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I think he will rebound nicely and is a huge value play in dynasty leagues.90 catches for 1250 and 11 scores

Why do you think he'll have his lowest yds per catch since his rookie year?2009: 68 catches, 1113 yds, (16.4 yds per catch), 4 TDs2008: 80 catches, 1292 yds, (16.2 yds per catch), 9 TDs2007: 53 catches, 920 yds, (17.4 yds per catch), 12 TDs2006: 45 catches, 632 yds, (14.0 yds per catch), 3 TDsI struggle with how Jennings gets back to double-digit TDs, given the emergence of Finley as a redzone option and Rodgers' willingness to spread the ball around.75 catches, 1200 yds, (16.0 yds per catch), 8 TDsSeems like a reasonable rebound without crazy expectations.

 

[Packers]

With the emergence of Finley, I believe Jennings TD's will remain under 10. I also think Rodgers spreads the ball around nicely, which will obviously keep his reception down. I look at 74rec 1200yds 7tds.

It seemed last year he struggled with Rodgers early. Plus he missed week 2. After the week 5 bye he seemed to get on page with Rodgers. But still inconsistent throughout the season.

With Driver still doing the dirty work and pretty good talent with James Jones and Jordy Nelson around to get some grabs I just don't see Jennings bouncing up to 85 or 90+ receptions.

He turns 27 in Sept. so he is right in his prime. I would view Jennings as a very safe pick with a slight possibility of reaching top tier numbers.

But I would still draft him knowing I will get 70+ 1100+ 6+.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think he will rebound nicely and is a huge value play in dynasty leagues.90 catches for 1250 and 11 scores

Why do you think he'll have his lowest yds per catch since his rookie year?2009: 68 catches, 1113 yds, (16.4 yds per catch), 4 TDs2008: 80 catches, 1292 yds, (16.2 yds per catch), 9 TDs2007: 53 catches, 920 yds, (17.4 yds per catch), 12 TDs2006: 45 catches, 632 yds, (14.0 yds per catch), 3 TDsI struggle with how Jennings gets back to double-digit TDs, given the emergence of Finley as a redzone option and Rodgers' willingness to spread the ball around.75 catches, 1200 yds, (16.0 yds per catch), 8 TDsSeems like a reasonable rebound without crazy expectations.

Put me down for 70/1,100/7Td

 

[karmarooster]

With the emergence of Finley, I believe Jennings TD's will remain under 10. I also think Rodgers spreads the ball around nicely, which will obviously keep his reception down. I look at 74rec 1200yds 7tds.

It seemed last year he struggled with Rodgers early. Plus he missed week 2. After the week 5 bye he seemed to get on page with Rodgers. But still inconsistent throughout the season.

With Driver still doing the dirty work and pretty good talent with James Jones and Jordy Nelson around to get some grabs I just don't see Jennings bouncing up to 85 or 90+ receptions.

He turns 27 in Sept. so he is right in his prime. I would view Jennings as a very safe pick with a slight possibility of reaching top tier numbers.

But I would still draft him knowing I will get 70+ 1100+ 6+.

He didn't actually miss week 2. Just put up a goose egg on 5 targets. FBGs game log from week 2:

Week 2 - Jennings dropped an easy first down catch during the team's first series, then was mostly invisible for the rest of the first half. Rodgers targeted him more often in the second half, but the Bengal pass rush kept Aaron Rodgers from getting in sync with Jennings on the longer developing routes.

Unfortunately, that's probably a harbinger of things to come. This guy is the new Chad Johnson (back before Ochocinco). Week 3:

Week 3 - Jennings was invisible for much of the game, but made an impact when called upon. He was the main deep option for the Packers, and he showed why, beating the secondary twice for 50+ yard gains.

When he doesn't get that deep ball, you are going to be hurting in head to head leagues. Week 4:

Week 4 - Greg Jennings was the forgotten man of the evening for the Packers.

You get the point.You hit the nail on the head however with the inconsistent comment, and I don't think that is going to change because he is the deep threat on a team with MANY other talented players (Finley, Driver, Jones, Nelson, Grant). Probably the deepest corps of WRs/TE/RB in the league.

With all of that talent I think it very unlikely he goes over 80 catches, and I doubt he gets double-digit TDs with Finley, Grant, and Rodgers rushing stealing TDs inside the redzone. He's probably over-rated due to name recognition on that 12 TD season from a few years ago and the 1,200 yard campaign in 2008. I don't see him as having any more upside than say, Hakeem Nicks.

70/1,120/8

 

[rzrback77]

I really like Greg Jennings as a player and on the Packers, he seems to be in a prime position with opportunity combining with talent to send him to the top echelons of the WR rankings. However, there is also reasonable doubt here. Consider that he has finished as #12, #4, and #20 in the FBG scoring for WRs over the past three seasons. Combine that with the plethora of weapons that Aaron Rodgers has and I am not seeing the upward movement that would put Jennings as the current WR 13 and 32 overall.

Jennings played in all 16 games in 09, but managed only 119 targets (7.4 per game). He had six games with 6 or less targets and one game without a reception. In ppr scoring leagues, he still had six games with less than 10 fantasy points. The positives are that he is in a high octance offense with a great QB, even though Finley burst on the scene last year, Jennings stayed involved in the offense, and Driver who is Jennings main competition for WR targets is 35 already and should be dropping off the cliff soon.

I also think that Jennings is a much better option than James Jones or Jordy Nelson, but just not convnced there is value taking him as high in the draft as may be required.

Greg Jennings 16 gms 128 targets 74 catches 57.8% 1184 yards 16.0 ypc and 7 TDs

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I think he will rebound nicely and is a huge value play in dynasty leagues.90 catches for 1250 and 11 scores

Why do you think he'll have his lowest yds per catch since his rookie year?2009: 68 catches, 1113 yds, (16.4 yds per catch), 4 TDs2008: 80 catches, 1292 yds, (16.2 yds per catch), 9 TDs2007: 53 catches, 920 yds, (17.4 yds per catch), 12 TDs2006: 45 catches, 632 yds, (14.0 yds per catch), 3 TDsI struggle with how Jennings gets back to double-digit TDs, given the emergence of Finley as a redzone option and Rodgers' willingness to spread the ball around.75 catches, 1200 yds, (16.0 yds per catch), 8 TDsSeems like a reasonable rebound without crazy expectations.

I agree with the numbers and also expect a "reasonable rebound" - but will just note that a large factor in Jennings' slip last season was the dismal offensive line. Rodgers simply didn't have the time much of the season to allow Jennnings' deep routes to develop, set up and throw deep. Play action was worthless. As a Packer homer, I am expecting that to change a bit this season. If the OL can stay healthy, they should show significant improvement, allowing for more big plays. I expect McCarthy to design a good bit of the playbook for Finley, but he won't change his spots overnight - he'll always love the deep ball.80 / 1300 / 10

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I think he will rebound nicely and is a huge value play in dynasty leagues.

90 catches for 1250 and 11 scores

Why do you think he'll have his lowest yds per catch since his rookie year?2009: 68 catches, 1113 yds, (16.4 yds per catch), 4 TDs

2008: 80 catches, 1292 yds, (16.2 yds per catch), 9 TDs

2007: 53 catches, 920 yds, (17.4 yds per catch), 12 TDs

2006: 45 catches, 632 yds, (14.0 yds per catch), 3 TDs

I struggle with how Jennings gets back to double-digit TDs, given the emergence of Finley as a redzone option and Rodgers' willingness to spread the ball around.

75 catches, 1200 yds, (16.0 yds per catch), 8 TDs

Seems like a reasonable rebound without crazy expectations.

I agree with the numbers and also expect a "reasonable rebound" - but will just note that a large factor in Jennings' slip last season was the dismal offensive line. Rodgers simply didn't have the time much of the season to allow Jennnings' deep routes to develop, set up and throw deep. Play action was worthless. As a Packer homer, I am expecting that to change a bit this season. If the OL can stay healthy, they should show significant improvement, allowing for more big plays. I expect McCarthy to design a good bit of the playbook for Finley, but he won't change his spots overnight - he'll always love the deep ball.80 / 1300 / 10

Yep, and it's one of the big problems with this offense. McCarthy gets way too excited about the deep ball when - at times - he should simply move the chains. Jennings does such a good job of setting guys up (due to great route running) that I can see taking shots. I just wish they would get him the ball more on slant plays (etc) designed to get him more YAC opportunities.

 

[•TheRealMcCoy]

With the emergence of Finley, I believe Jennings TD's will remain under 10. I also think Rodgers spreads the ball around nicely, which will obviously keep his reception down. I look at 74rec 1200yds 7tds. It seemed last year he struggled with Rodgers early. Plus he missed week 2. After the week 5 bye he seemed to get on page with Rodgers. But still inconsistent throughout the season. With Driver still doing the dirty work and pretty good talent with James Jones and Jordy Nelson around to get some grabs I just don't see Jennings bouncing up to 85 or 90+ receptions. He turns 27 in Sept. so he is right in his prime. I would view Jennings as a very safe pick with a slight possibility of reaching top tier numbers. But I would still draft him knowing I will get 70+ 1100+ 6+.

I think many of you are forgetting just how old Driver is. He will go away soon, really soon IMHO! With that said, so goes his 65+ receptions per year. Remains to be seen if James Jones or Jordy Nelson can step up? But with Driver soon gone, I can see these numbers(no I didnt calculate yds per catch avg). Just off the top of my head:2010: 86 Rec / 1389 Yds / 9 TDs2011 and Beyound(per year):90 Rec / 1250 Yds / 12+ TDsThis guy is the real deal. And Im sure most of you already know this.

 

[Thomsen]

With the emergence of Finley, I believe Jennings TD's will remain under 10. I also think Rodgers spreads the ball around nicely, which will obviously keep his reception down. I look at 74rec 1200yds 7tds. It seemed last year he struggled with Rodgers early. Plus he missed week 2. After the week 5 bye he seemed to get on page with Rodgers. But still inconsistent throughout the season. With Driver still doing the dirty work and pretty good talent with James Jones and Jordy Nelson around to get some grabs I just don't see Jennings bouncing up to 85 or 90+ receptions. He turns 27 in Sept. so he is right in his prime. I would view Jennings as a very safe pick with a slight possibility of reaching top tier numbers. But I would still draft him knowing I will get 70+ 1100+ 6+.

I think many of you are forgetting just how old Driver is. He will go away soon, really soon IMHO! With that said, so goes his 65+ receptions per year. Remains to be seen if James Jones or Jordy Nelson can step up? But with Driver soon gone, I can see these numbers(no I didnt calculate yds per catch avg). Just off the top of my head:2010: 86 Rec / 1389 Yds / 9 TDs2011 and Beyound(per year):90 Rec / 1250 Yds / 12+ TDsThis guy is the real deal. And Im sure most of you already know this.

Where are the signs of Drivers decline? He is in impeccable shape and Rodgers targetted him over a 100 times last season, even more than Jennings.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Where are the signs of Drivers decline? He is in impeccable shape and Rodgers targetted him over a 100 times last season, even more than Jennings.

Every WR declines eventually. Driver is what, 35 years old? There were no signs of Galloway or Jimmy Smith slowing down either - all of a sudden they were just not very effective.

 

[Harjiran]

Man he burned me last year. I'm not touching him, especially at his ADP. I think GB will continue to spread the ball around and Jennings will be OK, but not a stud.

65 rec, 1,050 yards, 6 TDs.

 

[rascal]

bump

Looks like he is WR8 for most ADPs.