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Griffin is not going to last (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Futz
- Start date
Jewell
Footballguy
I remember Tom Brady's first game back after knee surgery. It was a Monday Night game against Buffalo. Brady looked tentative and off throughout the game and barely eaked out a win at the end.
When you're coming back from a knee injury you have to overcome both the physical and psychological hurdles. RG3 did look tentative and did exhibit poor mechanics last night, but, like Brady, was starting to look better by the end. Give RG3 some time to round into shape. Especially considering he took no preseason snaps.
When you're coming back from a knee injury you have to overcome both the physical and psychological hurdles. RG3 did look tentative and did exhibit poor mechanics last night, but, like Brady, was starting to look better by the end. Give RG3 some time to round into shape. Especially considering he took no preseason snaps.
Futz
Footballguy
That's a fair assessment. However I would still be blowing up the trading block if I owned him. Someone might just take the name value right now who missed the game.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
He was 15-21 with 169 yards and 2 TD's in the 4th quarter. He didn't play in the preseason and was clearly rusty, but the rust came off in the 4th. While he's clearly not himself, 80% RGIII is still better than majority of the other QB's in the league.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Dude hadn't played football since the playoffs, and hadn't played healthy football since the Ravens game last year. He was rusty, didn't trust his knee, and needed the reps.
He looked much better the second half of the game, and I'm not talking about his stats vs. a soft Eagles D. I'm talking about his smoothness in the pocket, his instincts, his demeanor, and his mechanics throwing the ball. It all improved once he settled down and started to take some hits and trust that knee.
He'll be fine. He might just tear up that terrible GB secondary.
JustinHawkins
Footballguy
way too early to panic over RG3. I mean really, I think its pretty normal for professional athletes to have/need full speed practice to perform at their best. Last night's first half was his first practice. He also needs to get a game behind him without any injury *(which I am assuming he was fine) and that should help him focus less on the knee too. if anything, I'd say he's a good bye low right now if owners are worried about him.
Clifford
Footballguy
TheGreatSpinks
Footballguy
As far as the stepping into his throws and footwork goes, Brady had the same thing. I guess we're forgetting that him taking the field at all was just shy of a miracle. He started to shake the rust off as the game went on... I think this is the epitome of knee jerk.
mikel0254
Footballguy
This is exactly what people who don't own him should be looking for...a panicked RG3 owner. I'd be buying, not selling.
Warrior
Footballguy
You clearly turned off the TV a quarter too early. Step off the ledge. Or watch the full game before providing input and creating a thread.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
I thought he looked really good in the 2nd half, thought he looked like his old self when his insitincts kicked in and he just started playing.
First half was full of rust and nerves.. but 2nd half, I thought he got it going.
i think the WR is good enough for them to pass quite a bit, less read option, I think hes still top 8/10
First half was full of rust and nerves.. but 2nd half, I thought he got it going.
i think the WR is good enough for them to pass quite a bit, less read option, I think hes still top 8/10
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
own him in 2 leagues, not going to last 5 yrs... even w/ out him running he took a ton of hits
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Definitely not the same player after the shredded knee.
Clifford
Footballguy
Why on earth would anyone be panicked following that game? Without any preseason games, with very little practice, coming off a massive ACL/PCL reconstruction he comes out, shakes off the predictable rust, and throws for over 300 yards in his first game back, even though his offense barely saw the field. He was connecting with tons of different receivers, and by the end of the game had almost fully recovered his midseason form and accuracy in the passing game.
If anything his price went way up last night, at least to anyone paying attention.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
yep, I don't get it, I've got a lot to panic about on my team, but this guy aint it
mikel0254
Footballguy
Don't ask me, ask the OP. I was saying take advantage if the RG3 owner in your league thinks like the OP.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
He looked good throwing against a dime in mop-up time against arguably the worst secondary in football. With the game on the line in the first half, his QB rating was like a 6.
He didn't look like he could run to save his life, which is where 100% of his real-world value was going to come from.
He might yet make it back -- God knows Peterson did under similar circumstances. But I saw nothing in that game to instill confidence.
I'd be lobbing out offers to the QB-starved if I had him on my roster, hoping they only saw the somewhat gaudy 300/2 numbers, and had no idea about the context of the game.
He didn't look like he could run to save his life, which is where 100% of his real-world value was going to come from.
He might yet make it back -- God knows Peterson did under similar circumstances. But I saw nothing in that game to instill confidence.
I'd be lobbing out offers to the QB-starved if I had him on my roster, hoping they only saw the somewhat gaudy 300/2 numbers, and had no idea about the context of the game.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
He looked bad in what was his first live action in 8 mos, and rust, nerves, turnovers and conservative playcalling all worked in..
in the 2nd half, the eagles were still blitzing, he was starting to run with more freedom and he made some nice throws,
i dont see the panic, he should still be pretty solid this year... the guy is an amazing talent
in the 2nd half, the eagles were still blitzing, he was starting to run with more freedom and he made some nice throws,
i dont see the panic, he should still be pretty solid this year... the guy is an amazing talent
He doesn't have quite the upside he had last year, as he won't be the same from a rushing standpoint. But the second half last night convinced me to hold him in both the leagues I have him. When he started to escape the rush to create a couple of extra seconds for his receivers, I felt he was showing exactly what I'd hoped given the injury and the time away from the game. As for his getting hit a lot, much of that had to do with the deficit on the scoreboard and lack of balance between the run and the pass.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
The team has been saying for months that they wouldn't call many designed runs for him. It's a strategic decision to protect an asset as much as possible, not a reflection of his current health.Eminence said:
Ghost of Red Blaik
Footballguy
People are overreacting big time, first game back, what did you expect to see him throw for 400 yds? My bad he threw for over 300, relax, sounds more like you are not a fan of RG3 then anything else,
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I'm a fan of looking at what happened on the field, and using it to try to predict what a player is going to do in future games.
I don't think WAS is so bad that Griffin is going to be chucking it up against prevent defenses for a whole half very often. I also don't think he's going to be all that fleet of foot for a while. What we're left with that seems like a useful indicator is how he performed in the first half, passing the ball against a terrible defense that was actually trying to stop him.
He was God-awful at that.
It doesn't bode well, is all I'm saying.
And as I see it, he's a sell. I think for the time being, the name value plus the week one stats will command a price well in excess of the likely future production.
mikel0254
Footballguy
I don't think the team was saying that at all. Everything I read said they would not change up the playcalling because of his injury. They said he was healthy enough to do everything, so they wouldn't limit him. I believe the lack of designed runs yesterday were a factor of the game, not the gameplan. They were down big in the blink of an eye and couldn't afford to run the ball. Morris had 12 carries yesterday, less then every single game last year.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
Did you ever, in fact, watch him?
Like most QB's who are a threat to run, that threat opens up the deep pass to a higher-percentage play than more stationary QB's can ever achieve. That bump in passing production, plus the actual stats from running the ball (two points' worth of which last night, were in fact, "nothing," so far as it matters), were going to account for most of his real-world value.
He's still a starter. And he'll still pass the ball. But if he's not running the ball effectively, he's just a pocket passer with a little bit of willingness to scramble. And among those, his weapons and his passing aren't good enough to keep him among the elite. The dual threat was the only thing that made him elite.
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pghrob
Hail to the Chief
I think that last post discredits Griffin's talents as a natural /pure passer. http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/03/23/cosell-talks-its-not-always-luck/
Mile High
Footballguy
Man of Zen
Footballguy
Take away last year's running, and he's a 3000/20 guy, in the Ponder tier.
He's a good passer because he's a good runner. But in terms of raw pass-generated production, he's not quite up there with the Carson Palmers and Matt Schaubs of the world. If his legs aren't all-World, he's going to disappoint a lot of owners.
If his legs are so well-repaired that he's able to put up two rushing points against a bottom-dwelling defense, that's only further damning evidence.
It doesn't have to be a popular opinion, as most opinions that slaughter sacred cows aren't. But it's got logic backing it up.
He's a good passer because he's a good runner. But in terms of raw pass-generated production, he's not quite up there with the Carson Palmers and Matt Schaubs of the world. If his legs aren't all-World, he's going to disappoint a lot of owners.
If his legs are so well-repaired that he's able to put up two rushing points against a bottom-dwelling defense, that's only further damning evidence.
It doesn't have to be a popular opinion, as most opinions that slaughter sacred cows aren't. But it's got logic backing it up.
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bulger2holt
Footballguy
He'll never be the same. Without his world class speed, he will be forced to throw more from the pocket. He will never be a great pocket passer. When teams quit respecting his legs and force him to be a traditional pocket passer, his uniqeness wears off.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Take away last year's running, and he's a 3000/20 guy, in the Ponder tier.
He's a good passer because he's a good runner. But in terms of raw pass-generated production, he's not quite up there with the Carson Palmers and Matt Schaubs of the world. If his legs aren't all-World, he's going to disappoint a lot of owners.
If his legs are so well-repaired that he's able to put up two rushing points against a bottom-dwelling defense, that's only further damning evidence.
It doesn't have to be a popular opinion, as most opinions that slaughter sacred cows aren't. But it's got logic backing it up.
He threw for only 3300/20 because he and the team ran so much and so effectively. He threw only 393 times, compared to 483 for Ponder, 544 for Schaub, and 565 for Palmer. His 8.1 yard per attempt led the league,
What do you think happens to those plays where he doesn't run the ball? Do you think the team just takes a knee? Or might they, oh, I don't know, maybe try a couple more passes?
He might not be as good as he was last year. But that doesn't make your logic or your comps any less terrible.
Junior McSpiffy
Footballguy
This was because the threat of the run game provided the open space for Garcon and Davis in the passing game. Look at the GB/SF game and what did you see? You saw GB selling out to not let Kaep beat them with the run, and that let Anquan Boldin look like a viable WR1. Yes, -that- Anquan Boldin. If Washington can't force teams to a heavy commit for run-stopping, we're going to get him regressing to his one-read-and-take-off style.
Which is what we saw last night.
Clifford
Footballguy
So it would then follow that mobile QBs would have similarly high QB ratings, completion percentage and TD:INT ratios
Let's take a look:
Cam Newton rookie: QB rating 84.5, Completion % 60, TD:INT 27:17
Cam last year: 86.2, 57.7, 19:12
Mike Vick rookie: 62.7, 44.2, 2:3
Mike Vick second: 81.6, 54.8, 16:8
Russell Wilson: 100, 64.6, 26:10
1 out of 3 for your theory.
Should we look at rookie QB ratings of stationary QBs like Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan?
Just because a QB can run doesn't mean that makes them an accurate passer. The assertion is absurd. Vick and Newton are living proof. Also see Tebow, Tim, and Pryor, Terrell.
Clifford
Footballguy
The GB defense was the worst I saw all weekend. They routinely allowed Boldin to find the soft spots in the zone and exploit them. They never adjusted.
Obviously you guys haven't done much study on Griffin. Let's leave it at that.
What was Manning's rookie year like?
I don't have a dog in this fight - but I think the better question is not whether a running QB is more accurate than a "traditional" QB, but rather whether the running QB is more accurate than he would have been without the threat of running. In other words, does the threat of a run help a specific QB go from a 55% passer to a 65% passer? Or vice versa, does the loss of a running threat make a 65% passer into a 55% passer?
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Futz
Footballguy
Is my original post a bit knee jerk, sure I'll give you that. It's early but I think some points that have been mentioned about how the threat of the run for him make him a real fantasy threat in a given year. I'm just not sure that's going to happen this year. Having said that, it might not be a bad idea to peddle him now in a redraft while he still has name recognition to some. I felt that Philly did call off the dogs some but if they hadn't, he might not have made it out of that game.His real value is after he has a sub par year this year (and I fully expect it) he'll come back next year and produce like we expect him to because the whole play book will be open again and he might be truly healthy. What I saw last night wasn`t truly healthy.
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Junior McSpiffy
Footballguy
Because....? Because....? Because they invested so much energy in stopping the read option, the play that killed them in the playoffs. Why didn't SF run it? Because GB was sitting on it.
Yes, GB's defense is horrible, that's not in dispute. But it means that GB has to overcommit in order to stop something. Last weekend, they overcommitted to stop the run game. Hence, 400+ yards passing. If they meet in the playoffs, I expect GB to keep fishtailing, overcorrect to stop the pass, and Kaep will have 150+ yards rushing.
Other teams don't have to sell out to the extent GB does, but the premise is the same: the more effort a team needs to make in defending the run, the more open the passing game becomes. And verse vica. And as long as teams don't have to spend as many resources keeping BobbyG3 in the pocket, they will have more to invest in defending the pass.
I could draw you a flowchart if'n that'd help.
Look, RG3 -can- throw the ball. Nobody is saying that he is Tebow or Pryor. But despite all his physical tools, reading progressions was never his strong suit. And if teams can force him to his second or third read because they can invest more effort in pass defense, it's a win for the D. RG3 ain't Brady or Manning. I think that's all anyone here is saying. At least it's all I'm saying. I'm not saying if RG3 can't run, he doesn't belong in the league. Just that he isn't as effective as a passer if the threat to run isn't keeping the defense on its heels.
Junior McSpiffy
Footballguy
As long as it happens next year, and this year he helps keep the Rams in the Clownin' For Clowney contest. Then they can trade that pick, and the Circle Of Life can continue.
NickyHatton
Footballguy
Yeah he looked really rusty early on in the game, but started stepping into his throws more in the 4th quarter. This was his first game back since he tore his knee up with no preseason action, so of course he was tentative with his throws and scrambles. Once he starts building confidence with his knee after a few games he should be back to the old RG3, barring any setbacks.
People compare him to Peterson all the time because of their recovery, yet seem to forget that Peterson was held out of preseason all last year and also struggled when he first came back.
AP First 6 games of 2012
113 carries for 499 yards
4.4 yards per carry
83.1 ypg
Longest run - 34 yards
AP Last 10 games of 2012
235 carries for 1,598 yards
6.8 yards per carry
159.8 yards per game
Long runs - 82, 82, 61, 74, etc.
Even if he is truthful in saying that his knee is 100%, he's gonna need a few healthy games to build confidence in his cutting and planting.
People compare him to Peterson all the time because of their recovery, yet seem to forget that Peterson was held out of preseason all last year and also struggled when he first came back.
AP First 6 games of 2012
113 carries for 499 yards
4.4 yards per carry
83.1 ypg
Longest run - 34 yards
AP Last 10 games of 2012
235 carries for 1,598 yards
6.8 yards per carry
159.8 yards per game
Long runs - 82, 82, 61, 74, etc.
Even if he is truthful in saying that his knee is 100%, he's gonna need a few healthy games to build confidence in his cutting and planting.
Keith Lewis
Footballguy
Why all the injury prediction threads?
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Because if you're wrong nobody cares and the thread fades into oblivion, but if you're right you get to bump the thread and talk about how you're some sort of magical fantasy football combination of Nostradamus and Dr. James Andrews. It's a no-lose proposition.
Junior McSpiffy
Footballguy
Because a player's susceptibiliy to injury factors into their value, either in drafting or trading. If a player's injury history combined with style of play increase a player's risk of injury, then that must negatively contribute to their value, at least in some sense.
