Grocery Store-What are you paying for food? (1 Viewer)

[-OZ-]

That is some sweet small mortgage you got

Abso-frickin-lutely. $1150 / month for a place that would sell for $600k.
A buddy and I were talking the other day that we couldn’t afford to buy our own homes today. We’re attorneys. Fairly high on the federal salary scale.

I shop mainly at Kroger. Save 1.00 on gas with 1000 points and I use the digital coupons to save a little. Sprouts has them too but not many coupons I use. Safeway and I'm sure many others have apps as well.

My wife mostly shops at Walmart and Aldi’s. I love ALDIs.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Where does one buy half a cow?

Butcher shop

We have two go-to people who own their own animals / farm. They sell and get the butcher to do his thing, then sell to the consumer.

I need to find this here. I found a nearby ranch that sells really high quality stuff, and it's amazing. But it's so much more expensive than buying decent meat at Costco or the grocery store that it's hard to justify. I'd love to get a locally-raised half a cow and half a pig and fill up the chest freezer.

Growing up I used to raise 100-150 chickens at a time, take them in to be slaughtered and bagged, and then would sell them to family and friends. I would love to find something like that here, some high school kid making some money out of an unused part of their parent's barn.

 

[-OZ-]

Where does one buy half a cow?

Butcher shop

We have two go-to people who own their own animals / farm. They sell and get the butcher to do his thing, then sell to the consumer.

I need to find this here. I found a nearby ranch that sells really high quality stuff, and it's amazing. But it's so much more expensive than buying decent meat at Costco or the grocery store that it's hard to justify. I'd love to get a locally-raised half a cow and half a pig and fill up the chest freezer.

Growing up I used to raise 100-150 chickens at a time, take them in to be slaughtered and bagged, and then would sell them to family and friends. I would love to find something like that here, some high school kid making some money out of an unused part of their parent's barn.

We’ve done the math, it’s a bit more overall but so much better than BJs (a Costco like place if you’re not familiar).

We’ve been lucky that our deep freezer has lasted 22 years.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

For more than two years now, higher prices have been pinching consumers’ wallets and testing their patience — but there’s at least one part of their monthly budget that has more breathing room these days: For the average U.S. worker, it now takes fewer hours of work to afford a week’s worth of groceries than it did five years ago, in August 2019.

Nominal grocery prices are higher, but the reality is groceries are cheaper in real terms than 5 years ago.

Understandable that lots of Americans are fooled by nominal price hikes, but we're FBGs and know better.

Do tell
-But mind you Gas/Fuel is UP, my $2.79 quart of Og Half/Half prior to the pandemic is now a "pint" and sells for $4, I pay 50% more and get 50% less, it wasn't like this in 2019

I would sure like to hear how this is all in peoples minds, inabilities to process the prices at their grocery stores, all just an optical illusion

-Let me share something so we're on the same page, I was using the cost of my dozen eggs I buy as a barometer, I like my morning eggs and weekend brunch and I go thru a lot of eggs
A few years back i started buying the blue shell eggs with the brightest orange yolks you have ever seen, I never knew what real eggs tasted like
And they cost about $8 per dozen prior to pandemic. I watched the little pink cartons of cheap white eggs go up and up and up and up, we all know the folks who buy those eggs
I can remember a 6-pack of eggs was like 99 cents for the longest time but regular eggs are now close to $5-$6 per dozen and my premium eggs only went from $8 to a whopping $9 now
Mrs and I don't eat out very much these days, we definitely have 86'd going out for Brunch because my eggs are better than most breakfast meals we find around town and they charge $10-$15 for a plate of white eggs w/pale yellow yolks, some greasy meat and some deep fried potatoes so we just eat at home

I'm sharing this because I think the grocery prices have been especially rough for folks that can least afford it
How do you not see or feel the prices at the grocery store?

Alright, do tell

The price of gas goes up and down. But it's currently at the same price as it was in 2007, is as low as it's been at anytime since early 2021, and almost $2 below where it was in the middle of 2022.

To be frank, the gas thing was always pretty exaggerated.

Gas was only expensive while we were on the 2 year OPEC deal that started in 2020 to intentionally raise gas/oil off the covid floor. We overshot on that, and prices went up too much, but as soon as that deal expired gas IMMEDIATELY went all the way back down to the pre-covid average.

It was always just rage bait. It went back down to normal and everyone still talked about it like it was up at the OPEC deal highs. They complained about it, but they actually cared about it so little that they didn't even notice when gas prices went down 40%.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Food costs are a major killer for this middle class family. Just flat out brutal.

We have a budget of $500 a week. Family of four. It’s insane.

Interesting. I'm sure some of it is regional but this is almost exactly how much we were spending on food as a family of 4 when we weren't budgeting for it. I only know because we make all food purchases on a separate credit card so I can always see how much it is, and without really thinking about the price of food we pretty consistently spent about $1900-$2200/month. Granted that was with us eating out fairly regularly.

My wife and I are both cutting down our work hours significantly so starting to tighten up on budget, and we've been able to cut that by 30-40% pretty consistently since we started trying. A lot less eating out but that's more in line with how I grew up where we ate out maybe 5 times per year, whereas before we started tightening we were eating out closer to 5 times per month (down to 1-2 times per month now).

 

[Terminalxylem]

Where does one buy half a cow?

No idea, but BOGO is much less messy.

 

[ChiefD]

Food costs are a major killer for this middle class family. Just flat out brutal.

We have a budget of $500 a week. Family of four. It’s insane.

I feel ya man. Should not be anywhere near that. Ours isn’t that high because all we eat is pasta and rice and ground beef and chicken.

I’m back in college. Except we can at least afford some meat.

 

[fatness]

Where does one buy half a cow?

The front or the back?

 

[Dezbelief]

Where does one buy half a cow?

The front or the back?

Depends on what you're in to.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

My brother & I split a steer every year or so. The guy who raises them is someone we grew up with. I think we paid $4.80/lb dressed and across the board a month ago. Now, you're gonna get a lot of ground beef and it's not lean. But it's so much better than what you get at the grocery store. Plus, I know where it comes from.

We also split a hog, but I can't remember what the $$/lb was - maybe $3.50? That came from my aunt, who volunteers with the FFA for her county fair. The hogs who don't make weight in their class are sold for processing.

We send both to a meat packing place on MD's Eastern Shore and they package it for us. It's all portioned and vac-sealed.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Food costs are a major killer for this middle class family. Just flat out brutal.

We have a budget of $500 a week. Family of four. It’s insane.

I feel ya man. Should not be anywhere near that. Ours isn’t that high because all we eat is pasta and rice and ground beef and chicken.

I’m back in college. Except we can at least afford some meat.

For some perspective, we live right outside the nations capital so it’s pricey here.

Still. That’s just groceries/costco. [she] cooks 5 nights a week. Eating out is just picking up chipotle or Chinese so it isn’t Ruth's Chris. Stuff is just crazy expensive even though we buy 95% of stuff that’s on sale.

 

[MAC_32]

That is some sweet small mortgage you got

Abso-frickin-lutely. $1150 / month for a place that would sell for $600k.
A buddy and I were talking the other day that we couldn’t afford to buy our own homes today. We’re attorneys. Fairly high on the federal salary scale.

Our mortgage is... less

What you described gets at why we stopped considering moving. This house is too small for the next 3 years, but will be just fine once the oldest is out of high school. We'll explore buying a lake house next decade, but it certainly isn't a must.

Oddly de-stressing to be aged ~40 and not worry about food costs- grocery or out. That's contributing to us staying put though, why unnecessarily create a situation in which we need to worry about that again. Our prices are up, but this is a lower cost of living area, so some of the $ being tossed around in this thread have been eye opening. Our banana prices increasing to $0.59 got my attention, but it's still half what it is elsewhere.

 

[culdeus]

It's almost like food requires a stable climate to grow efficiently.

 

[the moops]

Our banana prices increasing to $0.59 got my attention, but it's still half what it is elsewhere.

Trader Joe's increased their banana prices earlier this year. First time in 20 years if I remember correctly. All the way up to 23 cents a banana!

 

[NutterButter]

2.85 for a dozen cage free eggs at costco. Not too shabby.

One thing I've noticed hasn't gone up at all is that spring lettuce mix. 4.29 for that entire tub which makes 4 big salads. That's a great deal.

 

[culdeus]

Of the major commodity markets rice just continues up and up. Soybeans are likely to follow. Other items like coffee are racing out of control. And these growers aren't just making huge profits, the crops are increasingly harder to grow with the warming planet and profits are shrinking.

It won't be too long before 3rd world economies collapse under this pressure.

Rice - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

Rice decreased 0.80 USD/CWT or 5.72% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Rice - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on April of 2025.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[NutterButter]

Of the major commodity markets rice just continues up and up. Soybeans are likely to follow. Other items like coffee are racing out of control. And these growers aren't just making huge profits, the crops are increasingly harder to grow with the warming planet and profits are shrinking.

It won't be too long before 3rd world economies collapse under this pressure.

Rice - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

Rice decreased 0.80 USD/CWT or 5.72% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Rice - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on April of 2025.

tradingeconomics.com

Reminds me I need to buy another 25lb bag of jasmine from costco. I'll report back on the price.

 

[NutterButter]

Food costs are a major killer for this middle class family. Just flat out brutal.

We have a budget of $500 a week. Family of four. It’s insane.

What's it gonna take to give us a breakdown? I'm kind of fascinated to see how you spend $500 on groceries. It seems like a lot to me. I mean if you're buying ribeyes and seabass, then I could see how it will get up there quickly. If I had to guess, I think I'm about around 75 for myself. Other than going out to eat twice a week, I eat entirely at home for the most part. All my food comes from costco aside from oatmeal and a red onion.

 

[coopersdad]

2.85 for a dozen cage free eggs at costco. Not too shabby.

One thing I've noticed hasn't gone up at all is that spring lettuce mix. 4.29 for that entire tub which makes 4 big salads. That's a great deal.

A Big Salad

 

[NutterButter]

2.85 for a dozen cage free eggs at costco. Not too shabby.

One thing I've noticed hasn't gone up at all is that spring lettuce mix. 4.29 for that entire tub which makes 4 big salads. That's a great deal.

A Big Salad

That's genuine. Gonna need more than 1 tub for that.

 

[tommyGunZ]

72 Million Americans don't seem to look at things like that if you believe what they told people this past Tuesday, i'm just trying to find out what things cost
Talking Heads - "But if you go to Page 9 on this report written over at this place and compare 2024 to 2007"...I don't need to do that.
Gas was cheaper between 2016-2020, that's not a crazy statement, it's just the truth
I really appreciate what you're saying, please don't get upset with me but if we're going to move forward I think we have to acknowledge that some people are really hurting at grocery stores
And it comes down to what everyone eats and their lifestyle

Mrs and I work out of the house 4 days a week, I drive a vehicle that sucks up 93 at the pump, I think I paid around $4 a gallon the other day and I don't fill up the tank as often as others
Do you really think i sweat what gas prices are running? I'm sure California is paying more than i am in Florida right now.
That said, my 25 year old son who has to drive in to work 4 days a week vs being home 4 days a week, he complains about it all the time, his interest rate on his home is around 7% where as I have a 2.9% interest rate. Many of us on these boards live a blessed life and I'll leave it at that. I told my wife just today how lucky we are that things have mostly worked out financially as we set out when we were more around my son's age.

I hope you're not angry or mad that people are trying to find out why so many seem to be struggling. I think just telling people that everything is OK and compare it to the 90s, 25 year olds and that age group cannot relate to the 90s. I get what your saying but a mortgage is over double what it was 5 years ago, people can't keep up and something has to give.

I'm kind of shocked home prices didn't roll back more, especially in the places like Florida where real estate was steady for a long time and then just exploded
Not everyone got to cash in on that. Not everyone has a 401k and those that do have access thru their work many don't invest into them much to my dismay

If you go back to where I was bumping this thread, i was trying to point out what I think are some real deals at a grocery store I like to frequent, thought I'd share where I was getting some good food iMO and the prices are typically fair and they run a lot of sales...helping my fellow FBG

Thanks for the post SF

I appreciate this post MOP even if I disagree with it. I think your take is informative in that it is a perfect example of how many Americans feel and perceive the economy, regardless of reality.

But let's be clear, you're dismissing the actual facts when you make comments like "talking heads on page nine on this report compares 2024 to 2007". That's the data. Of course some people are struggling - some people are ALWAYS struggling. We can and should continue to do our best to aliviate those struggles as much as possible as a society.

To make a FF analogy - you're the guy walking into a draft in 2024 with a handwritten list on white lined paper that you created watching the preseason games, while you dismiss the guys with computers who have the draft dominator. Those nerds and all of their "data".

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

 

[Stoneworker]

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

The "data" says that real median household income in the U.S. went down from 2019-2023. From $81.2K to $80.6K.

So perhaps millions of so-called "emotional" Americans who believe they are struggling are indeed fact-driven after all.

St. Louis Fed: Median HH Income

 

[Instinctive]

72 Million Americans don't seem to look at things like that if you believe what they told people this past Tuesday, i'm just trying to find out what things cost
Talking Heads - "But if you go to Page 9 on this report written over at this place and compare 2024 to 2007"...I don't need to do that.
Gas was cheaper between 2016-2020, that's not a crazy statement, it's just the truth
I really appreciate what you're saying, please don't get upset with me but if we're going to move forward I think we have to acknowledge that some people are really hurting at grocery stores
And it comes down to what everyone eats and their lifestyle

Mrs and I work out of the house 4 days a week, I drive a vehicle that sucks up 93 at the pump, I think I paid around $4 a gallon the other day and I don't fill up the tank as often as others
Do you really think i sweat what gas prices are running? I'm sure California is paying more than i am in Florida right now.
That said, my 25 year old son who has to drive in to work 4 days a week vs being home 4 days a week, he complains about it all the time, his interest rate on his home is around 7% where as I have a 2.9% interest rate. Many of us on these boards live a blessed life and I'll leave it at that. I told my wife just today how lucky we are that things have mostly worked out financially as we set out when we were more around my son's age.

I hope you're not angry or mad that people are trying to find out why so many seem to be struggling. I think just telling people that everything is OK and compare it to the 90s, 25 year olds and that age group cannot relate to the 90s. I get what your saying but a mortgage is over double what it was 5 years ago, people can't keep up and something has to give.

I'm kind of shocked home prices didn't roll back more, especially in the places like Florida where real estate was steady for a long time and then just exploded
Not everyone got to cash in on that. Not everyone has a 401k and those that do have access thru their work many don't invest into them much to my dismay

If you go back to where I was bumping this thread, i was trying to point out what I think are some real deals at a grocery store I like to frequent, thought I'd share where I was getting some good food iMO and the prices are typically fair and they run a lot of sales...helping my fellow FBG

Thanks for the post SF

I appreciate this post MOP even if I disagree with it. I think your take is informative in that it is a perfect example of how many Americans feel and perceive the economy, regardless of reality.

But let's be clear, you're dismissing the actual facts when you make comments like "talking heads on page nine on this report compares 2024 to 2007". That's the data. Of course some people are struggling - some people are ALWAYS struggling. We can and should continue to do our best to aliviate those struggles as much as possible as a society.

To make a FF analogy - you're the guy walking into a draft in 2024 with a handwritten list on white lined paper that you created watching the preseason games, while you dismiss the guys with computers who have the draft dominator. Those nerds and all of their "data".

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

I think it is an interesting crossing where the brain doesn't see it as wages went up more than food prices hooray.

The brain sees it as: finally I'm making some headway and my income is going up, I'm doing well! Oh crap now I still can't buy a house or I'm locked into mine that's too small for my family and oh goodness now food costs more too. I guess I'm not doing better. Wtf. I earned that raise and now it's not worth what it should be.

 

[-OZ-]

Our prices are up, but this is a lower cost of living area, so some of the $ being tossed around in this thread have been eye opening.

The Huntsville area used to be quite low col but that’s changed lately. Thankfully after we bought the house. It’s still a good value.

 

[tommyGunZ]

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

The "data" says that real median household income in the U.S. went down from 2019-2023. From $81.2K to $80.6K.

So perhaps millions of so-called "emotional" Americans who believe they are struggling are indeed fact-driven after all.

St. Louis Fed: Median HH Income

Yes. There was a pandemic. Post 2022, income has shot back up, and Americans have more disposable income now than they did pre-pandemic.

 

[Golden Gopher]

Paid $1800 for half a cow, butchered into cuts we selected. That will last us 6-9 months. We usually buy half a pig a couple times a year at roughly $5/lb. No bacon.

Otherwise we pay about $200 / week.

So let’s say $14k annually at the grocery store. Which is more than our mortgage. 7 people, we eat well and son #3 is an aspiring baker / chef.

That is some sweet small mortgage you got

No kidding. That's 2-3 months here.

 

[tommyGunZ]

72 Million Americans don't seem to look at things like that if you believe what they told people this past Tuesday, i'm just trying to find out what things cost
Talking Heads - "But if you go to Page 9 on this report written over at this place and compare 2024 to 2007"...I don't need to do that.
Gas was cheaper between 2016-2020, that's not a crazy statement, it's just the truth
I really appreciate what you're saying, please don't get upset with me but if we're going to move forward I think we have to acknowledge that some people are really hurting at grocery stores
And it comes down to what everyone eats and their lifestyle

Mrs and I work out of the house 4 days a week, I drive a vehicle that sucks up 93 at the pump, I think I paid around $4 a gallon the other day and I don't fill up the tank as often as others
Do you really think i sweat what gas prices are running? I'm sure California is paying more than i am in Florida right now.
That said, my 25 year old son who has to drive in to work 4 days a week vs being home 4 days a week, he complains about it all the time, his interest rate on his home is around 7% where as I have a 2.9% interest rate. Many of us on these boards live a blessed life and I'll leave it at that. I told my wife just today how lucky we are that things have mostly worked out financially as we set out when we were more around my son's age.

I hope you're not angry or mad that people are trying to find out why so many seem to be struggling. I think just telling people that everything is OK and compare it to the 90s, 25 year olds and that age group cannot relate to the 90s. I get what your saying but a mortgage is over double what it was 5 years ago, people can't keep up and something has to give.

I'm kind of shocked home prices didn't roll back more, especially in the places like Florida where real estate was steady for a long time and then just exploded
Not everyone got to cash in on that. Not everyone has a 401k and those that do have access thru their work many don't invest into them much to my dismay

If you go back to where I was bumping this thread, i was trying to point out what I think are some real deals at a grocery store I like to frequent, thought I'd share where I was getting some good food iMO and the prices are typically fair and they run a lot of sales...helping my fellow FBG

Thanks for the post SF

I appreciate this post MOP even if I disagree with it. I think your take is informative in that it is a perfect example of how many Americans feel and perceive the economy, regardless of reality.

But let's be clear, you're dismissing the actual facts when you make comments like "talking heads on page nine on this report compares 2024 to 2007". That's the data. Of course some people are struggling - some people are ALWAYS struggling. We can and should continue to do our best to aliviate those struggles as much as possible as a society.

To make a FF analogy - you're the guy walking into a draft in 2024 with a handwritten list on white lined paper that you created watching the preseason games, while you dismiss the guys with computers who have the draft dominator. Those nerds and all of their "data".

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

I think it is an interesting crossing where the brain doesn't see it as wages went up more than food prices hooray.

The brain sees it as: finally I'm making some headway and my income is going up, I'm doing well! Oh crap now I still can't buy a house or I'm locked into mine that's too small for my family and oh goodness now food costs more too. I guess I'm not doing better. Wtf. I earned that raise and now it's not worth what it should be.

This is exactly right IMO. And it’s in line with behavioral studies for decades. The fact that we’re more angry about price increases but don’t seem to care when those prices go back down speaks volumes.

 

[Stoneworker]

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

The "data" says that real median household income in the U.S. went down from 2019-2023. From $81.2K to $80.6K.

So perhaps millions of so-called "emotional" Americans who believe they are struggling are indeed fact-driven after all.

St. Louis Fed: Median HH Income

Yes. There was a pandemic. Post 2022, income has shot back up, and Americans have more disposable income now than they did pre-pandemic.

It's fine. Treating macro data as religion led Powell and Yellen to their infamous "inflation is transitory" declarations.

I'd much rather start by listening to and believing what millions are saying...then try and reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality.

As opposed to current MSM approach of shoving a bunch of abstract stats down their throat and telling them they're effectively emotionally-driven economic dummies who are just wrong about their own household economic situations.

 

[NutterButter]

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

The "data" says that real median household income in the U.S. went down from 2019-2023. From $81.2K to $80.6K.

So perhaps millions of so-called "emotional" Americans who believe they are struggling are indeed fact-driven after all.

St. Louis Fed: Median HH Income

Yes. There was a pandemic. Post 2022, income has shot back up, and Americans have more disposable income now than they did pre-pandemic.

I saw that that the 2019 was overstated b/c it was collected during the pandemic and they had trouble contacting low income households. So you're right that 2023 is the highest level on record.

 

[FairWarning]

72 Million Americans don't seem to look at things like that if you believe what they told people this past Tuesday, i'm just trying to find out what things cost
Talking Heads - "But if you go to Page 9 on this report written over at this place and compare 2024 to 2007"...I don't need to do that.
Gas was cheaper between 2016-2020, that's not a crazy statement, it's just the truth
I really appreciate what you're saying, please don't get upset with me but if we're going to move forward I think we have to acknowledge that some people are really hurting at grocery stores
And it comes down to what everyone eats and their lifestyle

Mrs and I work out of the house 4 days a week, I drive a vehicle that sucks up 93 at the pump, I think I paid around $4 a gallon the other day and I don't fill up the tank as often as others
Do you really think i sweat what gas prices are running? I'm sure California is paying more than i am in Florida right now.
That said, my 25 year old son who has to drive in to work 4 days a week vs being home 4 days a week, he complains about it all the time, his interest rate on his home is around 7% where as I have a 2.9% interest rate. Many of us on these boards live a blessed life and I'll leave it at that. I told my wife just today how lucky we are that things have mostly worked out financially as we set out when we were more around my son's age.

I hope you're not angry or mad that people are trying to find out why so many seem to be struggling. I think just telling people that everything is OK and compare it to the 90s, 25 year olds and that age group cannot relate to the 90s. I get what your saying but a mortgage is over double what it was 5 years ago, people can't keep up and something has to give.

I'm kind of shocked home prices didn't roll back more, especially in the places like Florida where real estate was steady for a long time and then just exploded
Not everyone got to cash in on that. Not everyone has a 401k and those that do have access thru their work many don't invest into them much to my dismay

If you go back to where I was bumping this thread, i was trying to point out what I think are some real deals at a grocery store I like to frequent, thought I'd share where I was getting some good food iMO and the prices are typically fair and they run a lot of sales...helping my fellow FBG

Thanks for the post SF

I appreciate this post MOP even if I disagree with it. I think your take is informative in that it is a perfect example of how many Americans feel and perceive the economy, regardless of reality.

But let's be clear, you're dismissing the actual facts when you make comments like "talking heads on page nine on this report compares 2024 to 2007". That's the data. Of course some people are struggling - some people are ALWAYS struggling. We can and should continue to do our best to aliviate those struggles as much as possible as a society.

To make a FF analogy - you're the guy walking into a draft in 2024 with a handwritten list on white lined paper that you created watching the preseason games, while you dismiss the guys with computers who have the draft dominator. Those nerds and all of their "data".

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

I think it is an interesting crossing where the brain doesn't see it as wages went up more than food prices hooray.

The brain sees it as: finally I'm making some headway and my income is going up, I'm doing well! Oh crap now I still can't buy a house or I'm locked into mine that's too small for my family and oh goodness now food costs more too. I guess I'm not doing better. Wtf. I earned that raise and now it's not worth what it should be.

This is exactly right IMO. And it’s in line with behavioral studies for decades. The fact that we’re more angry about price increases but don’t seem to care when those prices go back down speaks volumes.

I’m in the business. I don’t care what government stats say, i haven’t seen any decreases except in sales and my paycheck. It’s been a steady downhill decline since things opened back up. Some of it is regional. The killer for many is insurance, most would be buried if they had a major health issue.

Let’s face it, if food prices weren’t a issue, there would t be Dollar Generals springing up everywhere.

 

[tommyGunZ]

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

The "data" says that real median household income in the U.S. went down from 2019-2023. From $81.2K to $80.6K.

So perhaps millions of so-called "emotional" Americans who believe they are struggling are indeed fact-driven after all.

St. Louis Fed: Median HH Income

Yes. There was a pandemic. Post 2022, income has shot back up, and Americans have more disposable income now than they did pre-pandemic.

It's fine. Treating macro data as religion led Powell and Yellen to their infamous "inflation is transitory" declarations.

I'd much rather start by listening to and believing what millions are saying...then try and reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality.

As opposed to current MSM approach of shoving a bunch of abstract stats down their throat and telling them they're effectively emotionally-driven economic dummies who are just wrong about their own household economic situations.

It's not that I don't believe millions of Americans are struggling - there are 132M households, of course some are struggling.

When you say "reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality", what do you mean? The reconciliation isn't a mystery, it's literally defined by the parameters of the data - mean, average, etc. When macro data shows that America as a whole is prospering, unfortunately that doesn't mean every single American. You know this - you're a smart dude that I've read for years.

 

[tommyGunZ]

72 Million Americans don't seem to look at things like that if you believe what they told people this past Tuesday, i'm just trying to find out what things cost
Talking Heads - "But if you go to Page 9 on this report written over at this place and compare 2024 to 2007"...I don't need to do that.
Gas was cheaper between 2016-2020, that's not a crazy statement, it's just the truth
I really appreciate what you're saying, please don't get upset with me but if we're going to move forward I think we have to acknowledge that some people are really hurting at grocery stores
And it comes down to what everyone eats and their lifestyle

Mrs and I work out of the house 4 days a week, I drive a vehicle that sucks up 93 at the pump, I think I paid around $4 a gallon the other day and I don't fill up the tank as often as others
Do you really think i sweat what gas prices are running? I'm sure California is paying more than i am in Florida right now.
That said, my 25 year old son who has to drive in to work 4 days a week vs being home 4 days a week, he complains about it all the time, his interest rate on his home is around 7% where as I have a 2.9% interest rate. Many of us on these boards live a blessed life and I'll leave it at that. I told my wife just today how lucky we are that things have mostly worked out financially as we set out when we were more around my son's age.

I hope you're not angry or mad that people are trying to find out why so many seem to be struggling. I think just telling people that everything is OK and compare it to the 90s, 25 year olds and that age group cannot relate to the 90s. I get what your saying but a mortgage is over double what it was 5 years ago, people can't keep up and something has to give.

I'm kind of shocked home prices didn't roll back more, especially in the places like Florida where real estate was steady for a long time and then just exploded
Not everyone got to cash in on that. Not everyone has a 401k and those that do have access thru their work many don't invest into them much to my dismay

If you go back to where I was bumping this thread, i was trying to point out what I think are some real deals at a grocery store I like to frequent, thought I'd share where I was getting some good food iMO and the prices are typically fair and they run a lot of sales...helping my fellow FBG

Thanks for the post SF

I appreciate this post MOP even if I disagree with it. I think your take is informative in that it is a perfect example of how many Americans feel and perceive the economy, regardless of reality.

But let's be clear, you're dismissing the actual facts when you make comments like "talking heads on page nine on this report compares 2024 to 2007". That's the data. Of course some people are struggling - some people are ALWAYS struggling. We can and should continue to do our best to aliviate those struggles as much as possible as a society.

To make a FF analogy - you're the guy walking into a draft in 2024 with a handwritten list on white lined paper that you created watching the preseason games, while you dismiss the guys with computers who have the draft dominator. Those nerds and all of their "data".

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

I think it is an interesting crossing where the brain doesn't see it as wages went up more than food prices hooray.

The brain sees it as: finally I'm making some headway and my income is going up, I'm doing well! Oh crap now I still can't buy a house or I'm locked into mine that's too small for my family and oh goodness now food costs more too. I guess I'm not doing better. Wtf. I earned that raise and now it's not worth what it should be.

This is exactly right IMO. And it’s in line with behavioral studies for decades. The fact that we’re more angry about price increases but don’t seem to care when those prices go back down speaks volumes.

I’m in the business. I don’t care what government stats say, i haven’t seen any decreases except in sales and my paycheck. It’s been a steady downhill decline since things opened back up. Some of it is regional. The killer for many is insurance, most would be buried if they had a major health issue.

Let’s face it, if food prices weren’t a issue, there would t be Dollar Generals springing up everywhere.

I think the confusion is that government macro data reflects the economic conditions of the United States as a whole, as opposed to Fair Warning's economic perception.

 

[FairWarning]

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

The "data" says that real median household income in the U.S. went down from 2019-2023. From $81.2K to $80.6K.

So perhaps millions of so-called "emotional" Americans who believe they are struggling are indeed fact-driven after all.

St. Louis Fed: Median HH Income

Yes. There was a pandemic. Post 2022, income has shot back up, and Americans have more disposable income now than they did pre-pandemic.

It's fine. Treating macro data as religion led Powell and Yellen to their infamous "inflation is transitory" declarations.

I'd much rather start by listening to and believing what millions are saying...then try and reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality.

As opposed to current MSM approach of shoving a bunch of abstract stats down their throat and telling them they're effectively emotionally-driven economic dummies who are just wrong about their own household economic situations.

It's not that I don't believe millions of Americans are struggling - there are 132M households, of course some are struggling.

When you say "reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality", what do you mean? The reconciliation isn't a mystery, it's literally defined by the parameters of the data - mean, average, etc. When macro data shows that America as a whole is prospering, unfortunately that doesn't mean every single American. You know this - you're a smart dude that I've read for years.

I don’t believe a lot of gov figures, especially when it applies to things like inflation. Yes, they can provide a quick general snapshot, but it’s just an average.

 

[tommyGunZ]

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

The "data" says that real median household income in the U.S. went down from 2019-2023. From $81.2K to $80.6K.

So perhaps millions of so-called "emotional" Americans who believe they are struggling are indeed fact-driven after all.

St. Louis Fed: Median HH Income

Yes. There was a pandemic. Post 2022, income has shot back up, and Americans have more disposable income now than they did pre-pandemic.

It's fine. Treating macro data as religion led Powell and Yellen to their infamous "inflation is transitory" declarations.

I'd much rather start by listening to and believing what millions are saying...then try and reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality.

As opposed to current MSM approach of shoving a bunch of abstract stats down their throat and telling them they're effectively emotionally-driven economic dummies who are just wrong about their own household economic situations.

It's not that I don't believe millions of Americans are struggling - there are 132M households, of course some are struggling.

When you say "reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality", what do you mean? The reconciliation isn't a mystery, it's literally defined by the parameters of the data - mean, average, etc. When macro data shows that America as a whole is prospering, unfortunately that doesn't mean every single American. You know this - you're a smart dude that I've read for years.

I don’t believe a lot of gov figures, especially when it applies to things like inflation. Yes, they can provide a quick general snapshot, but it’s just an average.

What do you mean you don't believe gov't data? Do you think your hunches are more accurate?

 

[-OZ-]

No kidding. That's 2-3 months here.

Yeah but you don’t live in Alabama.

Kidding, i actually love this area.

 

[Stoneworker]

It's not that I don't believe millions of Americans are struggling - there are 132M households, of course some are struggling.

When you say "reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality", what do you mean? The reconciliation isn't a mystery, it's literally defined by the parameters of the data - mean, average, etc. When macro data shows that America as a whole is prospering, unfortunately that doesn't mean every single American. You know this - you're a smart dude that I've read for years.

My bad if I'm misinterpreting any of your comments.

My premise is that it's not just "millions" who are actually (not psychologically) struggling, but a numerical majority. This seems to be validated by the results of the recent election, which I'm not alone in viewing as a referendum on the U.S. economy. But beyond that there are dozens of studies and consumer surveys (see below) that suggest the number of financially unhealthy/struggling households is high and growing. Plus some macro data like increased CC debt, delinquencies, lower savings rate, etc.

So that is what I'm saying is the "reality" of a majority of Americans.

However, as you have adroitly pointed out there is a lot of data (unemployment rate, real wage growth, tamed inflation, low oil prices, etc.) that suggests our macro economy is as healthy as ever.

So that is the apparent disconnect that needs reconciling. Perhaps that disconnect is an irrational emotional/behavioral phenomenon. But I'm not buying it. IMO the macro data is missing something.

70% of American households remain unhealthy

CNBC - 77% of Americans anxious about financial situation

Monmouth Poll: More Americans "Struggling" than "Stable" Financially

 

[Cowboysfan8]

It's almost like food requires a stable climate to grow efficiently.

I didn’t realize unstable climate causes price gouging

 

[Cowboysfan8]

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

The "data" says that real median household income in the U.S. went down from 2019-2023. From $81.2K to $80.6K.

So perhaps millions of so-called "emotional" Americans who believe they are struggling are indeed fact-driven after all.

St. Louis Fed: Median HH Income

Yes. There was a pandemic. Post 2022, income has shot back up, and Americans have more disposable income now than they did pre-pandemic.

It's fine. Treating macro data as religion led Powell and Yellen to their infamous "inflation is transitory" declarations.

I'd much rather start by listening to and believing what millions are saying...then try and reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality.

As opposed to current MSM approach of shoving a bunch of abstract stats down their throat and telling them they're effectively emotionally-driven economic dummies who are just wrong about their own household economic situations.

It's not that I don't believe millions of Americans are struggling - there are 132M households, of course some are struggling.

When you say "reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality", what do you mean? The reconciliation isn't a mystery, it's literally defined by the parameters of the data - mean, average, etc. When macro data shows that America as a whole is prospering, unfortunately that doesn't mean every single American. You know this - you're a smart dude that I've read for years.

I don’t believe a lot of gov figures, especially when it applies to things like inflation. Yes, they can provide a quick general snapshot, but it’s just an average.

What do you mean you don't believe gov't data? Do you think your hunches are more accurate?

Not everyone gobbles up what the govt and media try to spoon feed us

 

[belljr]

Gas is pretty cheap now

 

[tommyGunZ]

It's not that I don't believe millions of Americans are struggling - there are 132M households, of course some are struggling.

When you say "reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality", what do you mean? The reconciliation isn't a mystery, it's literally defined by the parameters of the data - mean, average, etc. When macro data shows that America as a whole is prospering, unfortunately that doesn't mean every single American. You know this - you're a smart dude that I've read for years.

My bad if I'm misinterpreting any of your comments.

My premise is that it's not just "millions" who are actually (not psychologically) struggling, but a numerical majority. This seems to be validated by the results of the recent election, which I'm not alone in viewing as a referendum on the U.S. economy. But beyond that there are dozens of studies and consumer surveys (see below) that suggest the number of financially unhealthy/struggling households is high and growing. Plus some macro data like increased CC debt, delinquencies, lower savings rate, etc.

So that is what I'm saying is the "reality" of a majority of Americans.

However, as you have adroitly pointed out there is a lot of data (unemployment rate, real wage growth, tamed inflation, low oil prices, etc.) that suggests our macro economy is as healthy as ever.

So that is the apparent disconnect that needs reconciling. Perhaps that disconnect is an irrational emotional/behavioral phenomenon. But I'm not buying it. IMO the macro data is missing something.

70% of American households remain unhealthy

CNBC - 77% of Americans anxious about financial situation

Monmouth Poll: More Americans "Struggling" than "Stable" Financially

Right - I don't deny that many American's perception of the macro economy is very negative. My contention is that factually they are better off, as the data suggests.

I"ll also predict that when these same surveys are done next November, much of the doom and gloom will have reversed and the outlook will be far more positive, under basically similar economic conditions. I.E. I believe that people's perceptions about the economy are often formed by views that aren't consistent with the actual economic data.

 

[tommyGunZ]

GL. You're certainly entitled to draft that way, and 72 million Americans can look at their handwritten, emotional lists and ignore the data. I prefer using the data and making decisions based on actual facts, but clearly I'm in the minority at this point.

The "data" says that real median household income in the U.S. went down from 2019-2023. From $81.2K to $80.6K.

So perhaps millions of so-called "emotional" Americans who believe they are struggling are indeed fact-driven after all.

St. Louis Fed: Median HH Income

Yes. There was a pandemic. Post 2022, income has shot back up, and Americans have more disposable income now than they did pre-pandemic.

It's fine. Treating macro data as religion led Powell and Yellen to their infamous "inflation is transitory" declarations.

I'd much rather start by listening to and believing what millions are saying...then try and reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality.

As opposed to current MSM approach of shoving a bunch of abstract stats down their throat and telling them they're effectively emotionally-driven economic dummies who are just wrong about their own household economic situations.

It's not that I don't believe millions of Americans are struggling - there are 132M households, of course some are struggling.

When you say "reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality", what do you mean? The reconciliation isn't a mystery, it's literally defined by the parameters of the data - mean, average, etc. When macro data shows that America as a whole is prospering, unfortunately that doesn't mean every single American. You know this - you're a smart dude that I've read for years.

I don’t believe a lot of gov figures, especially when it applies to things like inflation. Yes, they can provide a quick general snapshot, but it’s just an average.

What do you mean you don't believe gov't data? Do you think your hunches are more accurate?

Not everyone gobbles up what the govt and media try to spoon feed us

This is 100% accurate. Many people disregard economic data that is gathered systematically and historically by professionals who do this for their careers, and instead believe their "hunches" about what the "real" data is, based on what their neighbor Joe told them or what they saw/read on FaceXtok.

 

[-OZ-]

Not everyone gobbles up what the govt and media try to spoon feed us

Nor should we. But we all suffer from various cognitive fallacies including exposure bias. Almost every person I know is doing fine, so I’d be more inclined to believe everyone is doing well. Others are surrounded by people who aren’t doing well, so they assume the country is in shambles. Regardless of the data.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Many people disregard economic data that is gathered systematically and historically by professionals who do this for their careers

Cool
Many people also buy everything they see on the evening news

 

[Mitchie]

It's not that I don't believe millions of Americans are struggling - there are 132M households, of course some are struggling.

When you say "reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality", what do you mean? The reconciliation isn't a mystery, it's literally defined by the parameters of the data - mean, average, etc. When macro data shows that America as a whole is prospering, unfortunately that doesn't mean every single American. You know this - you're a smart dude that I've read for years.

My bad if I'm misinterpreting any of your comments.

My premise is that it's not just "millions" who are actually (not psychologically) struggling, but a numerical majority. This seems to be validated by the results of the recent election, which I'm not alone in viewing as a referendum on the U.S. economy. But beyond that there are dozens of studies and consumer surveys (see below) that suggest the number of financially unhealthy/struggling households is high and growing. Plus some macro data like increased CC debt, delinquencies, lower savings rate, etc.

So that is what I'm saying is the "reality" of a majority of Americans.

However, as you have adroitly pointed out there is a lot of data (unemployment rate, real wage growth, tamed inflation, low oil prices, etc.) that suggests our macro economy is as healthy as ever.

So that is the apparent disconnect that needs reconciling. Perhaps that disconnect is an irrational emotional/behavioral phenomenon. But I'm not buying it. IMO the macro data is missing something.

70% of American households remain unhealthy

CNBC - 77% of Americans anxious about financial situation

Monmouth Poll: More Americans "Struggling" than "Stable" Financially

Disconnect is between what people are told vs. what they're experiencing.

 

[FairWarning]

Gas is pretty cheap now

It’s been reasonable for a couple of years for the most part.

 

[Chaos34]

I need to find this here. I found a nearby ranch that sells really high quality stuff, and it's amazing. But it's so much more expensive than buying decent meat at Costco or the grocery store that it's hard to justify.

I was just texting about football with a lifelong buddy in the bay area. I remembered he splits a half cow with his business partner. His ribeyes were god-like last time I visited and they bragged about their rancher. Stemple Creek. He said the only way to get the price down is to buy the half. All their other pricing is absurd. He likes that you get to direct the butcher and can save a few bucks there too. He carves his own steaks so has it delivered as just roasts. He got it for 8.85 a pound last time and that included 25 ribeyes that they sell for over $50 a pound.

 

[Stoneworker]

It's not that I don't believe millions of Americans are struggling - there are 132M households, of course some are struggling.

When you say "reconcile why some macro data may not match their reality", what do you mean? The reconciliation isn't a mystery, it's literally defined by the parameters of the data - mean, average, etc. When macro data shows that America as a whole is prospering, unfortunately that doesn't mean every single American. You know this - you're a smart dude that I've read for years.

My bad if I'm misinterpreting any of your comments.

My premise is that it's not just "millions" who are actually (not psychologically) struggling, but a numerical majority. This seems to be validated by the results of the recent election, which I'm not alone in viewing as a referendum on the U.S. economy. But beyond that there are dozens of studies and consumer surveys (see below) that suggest the number of financially unhealthy/struggling households is high and growing. Plus some macro data like increased CC debt, delinquencies, lower savings rate, etc.

So that is what I'm saying is the "reality" of a majority of Americans.

However, as you have adroitly pointed out there is a lot of data (unemployment rate, real wage growth, tamed inflation, low oil prices, etc.) that suggests our macro economy is as healthy as ever.

So that is the apparent disconnect that needs reconciling. Perhaps that disconnect is an irrational emotional/behavioral phenomenon. But I'm not buying it. IMO the macro data is missing something.

70% of American households remain unhealthy

CNBC - 77% of Americans anxious about financial situation

Monmouth Poll: More Americans "Struggling" than "Stable" Financially

Right - I don't deny that many American's perception of the macro economy is very negative. My contention is that factually they are better off, as the data suggests.

I"ll also predict that when these same surveys are done next November, much of the doom and gloom will have reversed and the outlook will be far more positive, under basically similar economic conditions. I.E. I believe that people's perceptions about the economy are often formed by views that aren't consistent with the actual economic data.

It may very well be that it takes time for consumer sentiment scars to heal after a period of economic volatility, and your prediction comes true.

It may also be the case that macro data on the softening job market is about to get worse, we're not out of the woods yet on a recession, and that is the real reason the Fed is cutting rates (i.e. Americans' perception is ahead of the backward-looking data and smells a rat)

We'll see

 

[culdeus]

It's almost like food requires a stable climate to grow efficiently.

I didn’t realize unstable climate causes price gouging

It's still a free market.

I need to find this here. I found a nearby ranch that sells really high quality stuff, and it's amazing. But it's so much more expensive than buying decent meat at Costco or the grocery store that it's hard to justify.

I was just texting about football with a lifelong buddy in the bay area. I remembered he splits a half cow with his business partner. His ribeyes were god-like last time I visited and they bragged about their rancher. Stemple Creek. He said the only way to get the price down is to buy the half. All their other pricing is absurd. He likes that you get to direct the butcher and can save a few bucks there too. He carves his own steaks so has it delivered as just roasts. He got it for 8.85 a pound last time and that included 25 ribeyes that they sell for over $50 a pound.

I want to be in a business that can charge 40 bucks a pound for passing some flesh thru a band saw.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

they sell for over $50 a pound.

lol. Dang unstable climate

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Gas is pretty cheap now

How much in your area?