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Gronk's ReDraft Value, assuming he starts on PUP list (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mr E
- Start date
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_valuing_rob_gronkowski
Assuming he plays in 10 games at full health/ability, he would be projected to score 138 Adjusted FP in 0PPR leagues and 209 Adjusted FP in PPR leagues. That's more than any TE other than Graham. You might taken Witten over him in PPR leagues. But 10 games of healthy Gronk is no worse than the 3rd most valuable TE in FF.
Assuming he plays in 10 games at full health/ability, he would be projected to score 138 Adjusted FP in 0PPR leagues and 209 Adjusted FP in PPR leagues. That's more than any TE other than Graham. You might taken Witten over him in PPR leagues. But 10 games of healthy Gronk is no worse than the 3rd most valuable TE in FF.
We Tigers
Footballguy
Assuming playoffs in week 14-16, you'd get 6 regular season and potentially 3 playoff starts out of him if he's PUPed--New England has a week 10 bye. So, you'd end up with 7 fill-in starts, and 6 to 9 Gronk starts.
I have a hard time getting excited about that, but I'd start considering it in the 6th round if most other picks held to ADP (and we're talking a 2RB/3WR or 2/2/flex league). With QBs like Romo, Luck, Griffin, and Wilson often lasting to the 7th, you can take the Gronk gamble without sacrificing too much in your starting lineup, and still leave yourself the chance to grab one of several serious upside WRs in the 8th (Britt, Williams, and Gordon come to mind as a few who are sometimes slipping that far).
The risk in all of this, of course, is that coming off the PUP is no guarantee that he'll play in week 7. Or week 8. Or week 9.
I have a hard time getting excited about that, but I'd start considering it in the 6th round if most other picks held to ADP (and we're talking a 2RB/3WR or 2/2/flex league). With QBs like Romo, Luck, Griffin, and Wilson often lasting to the 7th, you can take the Gronk gamble without sacrificing too much in your starting lineup, and still leave yourself the chance to grab one of several serious upside WRs in the 8th (Britt, Williams, and Gordon come to mind as a few who are sometimes slipping that far).
The risk in all of this, of course, is that coming off the PUP is no guarantee that he'll play in week 7. Or week 8. Or week 9.
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Sweet Love
IBL Representative
Plus, you get the points from your back up who you start in his stead...so really, you need to add those two to your slot of "TE1", only furthering your point, some Gronk is a lot better than no Gronk.
I would pick him in the 5th of a PPR, but I know he would not last. I am not sure whether I have the stomach to go lower.
massraider
Footballguy
Why are we assuming he starts season on PUP?
Clifford
Footballguy
http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2013&teams=12&pos=te
ADP is still second TE off the board, but varies wildly between 3rd and 7th round. And that's assuming he comes back off PUP on time and takes 0 games to get up to speed. I would be more encouraged if I had heard one word about him being ahead of schedule but I haven't.
If I can get him in the sixth and get Myers in the 9th or 10th that's not bad, but at that point I've spent a mid and late pick on one TE. Not great given there is at least some doubt in my mind that he plays this year. I have nothing to back up that doubt.
Think I would rather take Tony G in the sixth and not have to worry about spending on a high floor backup TE.
ADP is still second TE off the board, but varies wildly between 3rd and 7th round. And that's assuming he comes back off PUP on time and takes 0 games to get up to speed. I would be more encouraged if I had heard one word about him being ahead of schedule but I haven't.
If I can get him in the sixth and get Myers in the 9th or 10th that's not bad, but at that point I've spent a mid and late pick on one TE. Not great given there is at least some doubt in my mind that he plays this year. I have nothing to back up that doubt.
Think I would rather take Tony G in the sixth and not have to worry about spending on a high floor backup TE.
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Zow
Footballguy
I think it's a good exercise in case he does. I didn't read the OP to be predicting that's what'll happen. Just where we'd value him at.
I think I'd happily take him in the 5th, then hope to grab two sleeper TEs earlier than ADP to hope one them gets me through the first 6 weeks or whatever is needed.
Eviloutsider
Footballguy
You have to add the replacement value to the first six weeks of Gronk's total as well to figure out what your tight end production might be for the year.
Short Corner
Footballguy
I'm not worried about the value part. The part that worries me is playing half the season minus a high pick which reduces your margin for error with your other picks. You are one less injury/bad run from digging yourself a hole that will keep you out of the playoffs. Plus you will have to waste another roster spot or two on TE. My main league voted to reduce benches by 2 spots this year which will be the deciding factor in me not being able to draft him where I will probably have to to land him.
eNdblu
Footballguy
14 team work league drafting out of the 11 spot, I took a chance on Gronk in the 4th and drafted Witten in the 6th. Hoping to ride Witten until Gronk is healthy then flip him for something else. Probably drafted Gronk a round too early, but didn't think he'd last 28 picks when I was picking again in the 5th. Gotta take a chance sometimes.
massraider
Footballguy
I think it's tied into if you like a late round guy.
I love Fred Davis, so I like the looks of that combo.
I love Fred Davis, so I like the looks of that combo.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
What about in FFPC scoring (1.5 ppr for TE)? In those drafts, Gronk is going in the mid-3rd or earlier. The problem is that the FFPC is an 11 week regular season. So if he starts on PUP, you only get him for 4 regular season games (misses 6 games + week 10 bye). That is not a winning strategy to make the playoffs in week 12. If you do somehow make it Gronk could be huge, but you have to burn a top 36 pick to get him.Chase Stuart said:
In addition, people are assuming that he would just step right in at week 7 @NYJ and play like a stud. But it might take him a game or two to get back to form. So while he might still finish no worse than TE3 (highly unlikely if he starts on PUP), those 10 games he does play are not all equally valued to your championship hopes as the bulk of the scoring could be backloaded to a point in your season where it's too late to matter.
All that said, I don't think he starts on PUP and only misses the first two games at most. If that is the case, he is a monster value in round 3 and could still finish as TE1.
Regularly landing him in the 5th and I've really warmed up to pulling the trigger there, since you can get TEs with late byes like Myers and Daniels quite late (9th-10th), as well as Sudfeld very late (14th-15th). Even if he starts on the PUP, if he hits for the home stretch, he can win you a championship imo, since with someone like Daniels, you should be able to hold serve at the TE position against any non-Graham teams.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Assuming the reports of his recovery were positive and I was very confident that Gronk would be ready to go as soon as his PUP stint ended, I would still draft him at the end of the 3rd or beginning of the 4th.
Eviloutsider
Footballguy
Got him in the 6th tonight and am ok with it. (12 team)
titusbramble
Footballguy
i'd start looking at him around pick 55, maybe a touch later. it kind of depends on how deep my roster is, if it's something like a 15 man roster like yahoo i'm loathed to have to waste a roster spot on someone through week 6 that i could use on a precious, precious running back
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The error in logic here is that people are projecting him for full 2011 production the moment he sets foot on the field again, which I think is a very bold assumption. PUP or no PUP, I think his production will be diminished this year for at least 4-6 games plus however many games he sits entirely. If he does start on the regular season PUP, people forget that it could be 8 games missed, not just 6. If he stayed on the PUP list into the regular season, that will be almost a full year since he practiced or did anything football related. He got hurt in November and has had multiple surgeries and could not practice, work out, or condition. While on the PUP list, he can't practice. NE could care less about your fantasy team, and I suspect they will ease him back slowly and he will be on a limited snap count. He was not around the past two seasons when it mattered most . . . in the post season. The Pats will need him 100% in January, not September or October. I believe the Pats offense will continue to rack up big totals even with Gronk out of the lineup, so their incentive to rush him back will be minimized. Maybe Gronk comes back and performs at the same level from Day One, but I think that is FAR from a given.
Detroit Revival
Footballguy
I think Gronk is safer in a 10-12 teamer than in a 14-16 team league. If you're taking him in a larger league you better be confident in finding a late round TE to cover his absence for the beginning of the season. All in all the decision to take Gronk could be a league winning play, the value could be that good. Reminds me of those that happened to get ADP in the 2nd rd. or later last year. It was unbelievable value. I'd pull the trigger in the 4th for larger leagues, and 5th in smaller.
For those that are shooting to get him or have already gotten him, who are you aiming for as your 2nd TE and in what round?
For those that are shooting to get him or have already gotten him, who are you aiming for as your 2nd TE and in what round?
I got him in the 5th rd of my non ppr draft last week.
Backed him up with Finley in the 12th rd and fleener in the 15th rd. not worried at all about waiting for him.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
I think the Pats are holding out information (surprise surprise). I think he goes week #1. With that, I took him at 4.05 last night in a 12 team redraft FFPC Draftmasters league. This is a best-ball league.
I took RBs McCoy, Forte, and McFadden before him and backed him up with Dwayne Allen, Dallas Clark, and James Casey. I feel pretty good about it.
I took RBs McCoy, Forte, and McFadden before him and backed him up with Dwayne Allen, Dallas Clark, and James Casey. I feel pretty good about it.
Has anyone heard any updates on gronk today? I just got a wry hungry bite from one of my league mates trying to trade for him. Offering me nicks, vjax, or Ryan Matthews .
Those aren't elite guys but still serious enough of a trade offer to make me think he has heard something I haven't a out gronk's status.
Those aren't elite guys but still serious enough of a trade offer to make me think he has heard something I haven't a out gronk's status.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
So Gronk is going to start Week 1 not having practiced in almost a year? That would be bold.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Im sort of hoping he goes on PUP to see where he his ADP would drop to. Im warming up to taking him and going Sudfeld late in that scenario. If he does start falling to the 6th round, Id consider pulling the trigger.
Right now, I wouldnt touch him at his ADP without more news on his status.
Right now, I wouldnt touch him at his ADP without more news on his status.
VA703
Footballguy
assuming he starts off on the pup list which is fine.. i want him for the later half of the season and into playoffs
i drafted jorcan cameron as my #1 until gronk is ready.. Got cameron in the 10th and gronk in the 15th! and this is a keeper league so im lookn forward to years of gronk for a +10th round keeper
i drafted jorcan cameron as my #1 until gronk is ready.. Got cameron in the 10th and gronk in the 15th! and this is a keeper league so im lookn forward to years of gronk for a +10th round keeper
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I got him at 4.10 in a 12 team PPR redraft last nightSweet Love said:
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Bingo. I got Davis at 12.10 to complement him. A 4th and a 12th is a fairly high price to pay for TE but I feel like I may have an advantage at the position over everyone but the Graham owner,and he spent pick 2.1 to get Graham.
