Damn, things just got real then. You hate Barkley. Thankfully the dud cowboys game makes it so I just need a decent floor game not an all world top 10 showing from a rb.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Guillotine League Strategy (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter zed2283
- Start date
TheWinz
Footballguy
Yeah, floor was what I was thinking. Lamb got you started on the right path. Barkley came back in week 11 and led Booker 36-21 in snaps, but then took full control in 12 with a 52-10 advantage. He had 6 and 4 catches in those games too, and has always been known as a dual threat.
BTW, I really do like Saquon, but at the risk of having bad karma, I think he is a huge injury risk. But, if I needed 10 points on Sunday, I would start him over Henderson.
Yeah. Honestly I’ve pretty much convinced myself out of Henderson because of potential for limited snaps even if he starts. I still think Robinson may be best if he plays tomorrow because he’s already been limited to 60 percent snaps past 3 games but was decent floor and has a better match than Barkley but if not, it’s between Barkley and Williams. Barkley may be safer than Williams because Williams may split Carries like how Ingram did with Montgomery on Thursday.
glennon starting and toney and Shepard out is concerning though. But maybe that means Barkley is all they have left so he gets enough garbage receptions to give him floor.
Last edited by a moderator:
I noticed on guillotine.com you might be able to move them around even after the game is over.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Highest points this week by far. 143 points with kupp still to go. The guy with faab is 90 points with Najee and Andrew’s to go. He’s competing with a guy with 90 with hill and diggs to go. Hopefully the faab leader loses.
Yup. Unfortunately, FAAB leader no longer projected last. He's stopped at 121 points and Hill got a whopping 4.2 points so he's only got Diggs left and 95.60 points.
Most likely the chopping block will be:
Rodgers
Joe Mixon
David Montgomery
Diggs
Hill
Gaskin
Thielen
Gronkowski
FAAB leader has 94 so probably has priority over top 2 and i get whatever he doesn't want with my 60.
TheWinz
Footballguy
I'm through to next week. The chopped team was one of the best teams the second half of the season and I really wish he wouldn't have been the one to get cut until later, as he has J.Taylor and D.Adams. The new leader in FAAB from last week will get both. His team was one of the worst all year, but he saved his $ and in the last 3 weeks has become one of the top 2. Gonna be extremely difficult to beat those 2 teams without a lot of luck.
Available this week:
QB - Murray, Dak
RB - Taylor, Zeke, Swift, Pollard, Hunt
WR - D.Adams, Pittman
TE - Knox, Goedert
FAAB:
$63
$12
$0
$0
$0
Available this week:
QB - Murray, Dak
RB - Taylor, Zeke, Swift, Pollard, Hunt
WR - D.Adams, Pittman
TE - Knox, Goedert
FAAB:
$63
$12
$0
$0
$0
Yeah, FAAB till the end is really important. If only to stop people from controlling the board.
Now that guy can get Taylor/Zeke/Swift/Adams unopposed for $13 each.
Hopefully he doesn't know who to start and screws himself.
I mean I started Conner and Barkley and I had 170 points / highest this week so you never know.
Last edited by a moderator:
Yeah, that's what I meant earlier when I was talking about the best team not winning and playing the matchups. I'm not going to start Chuba or anything like that, but going to take a long hard look at who gets dropped this week. Can pick people up until Sunday.
Last Waivers This Week.
Dropped:
Aaron Rodgers
Joe Mixon
David Montgomery
Myles Gaskin
Chuba Hubbard
DJ Moore
Adam Thielen
Stefon Diggs
Tyreek Hill
Mike Gesicki
Dalton Schultz
Rob Gronkowski
Stevenson (with harris injury)?
Mike Williams
Michael Carter
FAAB Remaining:
94
60
3
6
0
Team with 94 has:
Herbert
Najee
Ekeler
Amari Cooper
Waddle
Elliot
Pittman
Andrews
Stafford
Chubb
Pollard
Metcalf
Samuel
Fant
Assuming he drops:
2 of Pittman / Cooper / Metcalf for Mixon and Diggs or Hill
Fant for Gronk if he has leftover $
I have:
Brady
Barkley
Conner
Lamb
Jefferson
Kupp
Chase
Hockenson
Lamar
Robinson
Henderson
Kamara
Williams
Waller
I'm not sure how I feel about Robinson and Henderson anymore. They may be droppable. Jamaal definitely is. Not sure Gronk is an upgrade over Hockenson/Waller. Or maybe drop chase for diggs or hill.
So really, I think I'm spending all my $ on 2 guys. One of Mixon/Montgomery and one of Diggs/Hill. If I want Mixon, I may have to sacrifice getting another one. Probably end up with whoever he will give to me. And if I can get a third maybe I drop Robinson or Henderson for Stevenson depending on Harris injury.
Bidding is at 2:00 PM CST on Wednesday. Then another waiver afterwards on 2:00 PM Thursday. Then Free Agency.
Dropped:
Aaron Rodgers
Joe Mixon
David Montgomery
Myles Gaskin
Chuba Hubbard
DJ Moore
Adam Thielen
Stefon Diggs
Tyreek Hill
Mike Gesicki
Dalton Schultz
Rob Gronkowski
Stevenson (with harris injury)?
Mike Williams
Michael Carter
FAAB Remaining:
94
60
3
6
0
Team with 94 has:
Herbert
Najee
Ekeler
Amari Cooper
Waddle
Elliot
Pittman
Andrews
Stafford
Chubb
Pollard
Metcalf
Samuel
Fant
Assuming he drops:
2 of Pittman / Cooper / Metcalf for Mixon and Diggs or Hill
Fant for Gronk if he has leftover $
I have:
Brady
Barkley
Conner
Lamb
Jefferson
Kupp
Chase
Hockenson
Lamar
Robinson
Henderson
Kamara
Williams
Waller
I'm not sure how I feel about Robinson and Henderson anymore. They may be droppable. Jamaal definitely is. Not sure Gronk is an upgrade over Hockenson/Waller. Or maybe drop chase for diggs or hill.
So really, I think I'm spending all my $ on 2 guys. One of Mixon/Montgomery and one of Diggs/Hill. If I want Mixon, I may have to sacrifice getting another one. Probably end up with whoever he will give to me. And if I can get a third maybe I drop Robinson or Henderson for Stevenson depending on Harris injury.
Bidding is at 2:00 PM CST on Wednesday. Then another waiver afterwards on 2:00 PM Thursday. Then Free Agency.
Last edited by a moderator:
TheWinz
Footballguy
Sure, Hill and Diggs are tempting, but your RB's are your weakness.
Barkley - With his catches, he is usable to not lose. As long as he doesn't get injured, he could be one of your safest guys, but the ceiling seems low.
Conner - The $1M question - will Edmonds come back and cut Conner in half?
Henderson - Secretly, I am betting you wanted Michel to suck. Hoping for your sake McVay doesn't turn it into a RBBC. Henderson is averaging a healthy 16.9 touches a game, and if that drops, begin to worry.
Kamara - He is a top 5 guy when he is playing, so pray he returns sooner vs later.
Robinson - I would be more worried about his health than Meyer pulling him after his fumble. He is still the top dog in JAC, and they really don't need to keep him rested for next season.
Williams - An obvious place holder until Swift returns.
Let me ask - armed with only the knowledge you have at this moment, how would you rank these 6 guys ROS?
Barkley - With his catches, he is usable to not lose. As long as he doesn't get injured, he could be one of your safest guys, but the ceiling seems low.
Conner - The $1M question - will Edmonds come back and cut Conner in half?
Henderson - Secretly, I am betting you wanted Michel to suck. Hoping for your sake McVay doesn't turn it into a RBBC. Henderson is averaging a healthy 16.9 touches a game, and if that drops, begin to worry.
Kamara - He is a top 5 guy when he is playing, so pray he returns sooner vs later.
Robinson - I would be more worried about his health than Meyer pulling him after his fumble. He is still the top dog in JAC, and they really don't need to keep him rested for next season.
Williams - An obvious place holder until Swift returns.
Let me ask - armed with only the knowledge you have at this moment, how would you rank these 6 guys ROS?
I'm not sure I believe the wishful thinking that michel takes over backfield. Yeah it’s possible they use a committee but I don’t think michel looks “better” than Henderson. I don’t think Henderson did anything wrong and michel brings anything new. I think he’s a valuable backup like Mattison etc.
Yes, given I’ve seen committees forced with Stevenson, Dillon, and pollard; I know this is a real concern and possibility, but I honestly feel if Henderson had all the carries against the jags he would have done just as well. Because of the uncertainty with split him and Barkley are at the bottom. It’s really about probability of a split vs not. With no split Henderson over Barkley. With split Henderson droppable. Hard to gauge. Hopefully they say something today or tomorrow.
kamara is number 1. He comes back he’s fully healthy and startable. I think my team is good enough to survive this week so I won’t have to worry about being chopped after. However think he’s back this week due to being limited all of last week.
conner is number 2. No one knows when Edmonds back. Even when Edmonds played, conner was startable. He was easily rb2 and tds gave him top 10 weeks earlier in the year. Might get another week or two without Edmonds. Who knows.
robinson number 3. Outside of this week he has two good matchups. If he’s healthy and gets volume those times I think I can rely on him.
Barkley has a good matchup this week I think. So I think it’s between him and Conner this week for me. Or if I get Montgomery or mixon maybe I can just drop Barkley. Really it’s probably him versus Henderson and a matter of committee or not.
henderson I talked about above and is number 5. Without committee I think he’s 2/3/4. He’s at least done well when he gets a good game script, healthy, and gets volume. Cant say same for Barkley. Like positive game scripts and red zone opportunities from rams over jags. Depending on matchups and Conner committee.
jamaal is easy drop. His ceiling too low. Won’t get as huge of games as chase.
My hope is to get 1 rb. He won’t allow both… if he does maybe I go for both and drop jamaal and Henderson or Barkley. Otherwise if it’s unclear, I’m thinking about dropping chase if diggs and hill are clearly more reliable if I need all of them to play the matchups.
I think starting 4 wr may be the way to go considering strength of my rbs. Really it’s about playing matchups for rbs so I don’t need must start every week rbs. Not even sure how many of those there are.
Swift cook Jones zeke chubb all have committee or injury issues. Only for sure must starts are really ekeler, Taylor, mixon, fournette, Patterson. Maybe you consider mitchell there but he’s concussed this week. Gibson I’m guessing is now there so maybe I messed up going for Henderson over him a while back.
Based on Schedules:
Kamara - NYJ/TB/MIA/CAR
Conner - LAR/DET/IND/DAL
Barkley - LAC/DAL/PHI/CHI
Robinson - TEN/HOU/NYJ/NE
Henderson - ARI/SEA/MIN/BAL
Add either:
Mixon - SF/DEN/BAL/KC
Montgomery - GB/MIN/SEA/NYG
I think this means Henderson is probably the odd man out and having Diggs/Hill over him is best. I won't start him this week as its too dangerous without knowing split and not the best matchup. He's also game script dependent and we saw Rams flop several games when they behind.
Week 14:
Kamara/Conner (if no split)/Barkley
Week 15:
Kamara/Conner (split or not)/Robinson/Montgomery
Week 16:
Kamara/Conner(if Edmonds not back but probably will)/Robinson/Montgomery
Week 17:
Kamara/Montgomery/Conner (if edmonds not back)/(Whoever is hot)
Last edited by a moderator:
Probably right. Gronk gets like 7-8 targets per game since he has been back and gets more red zone opportunities. Only issue is injury risk, stacking risk from playing brady/gronk, and how to structure bid so I get gronk. I think I'd have to bid at least $3 but I'm pretty much going all in on 1 or 2 players. Unless Gronk is better than Diggs/Hill upgrade for me.
If he somehow manages to get 3 players while I only get 1 I guess my fallback is Gronk and drop Hockenson. Hockenson can get me a zero so I guess it is an upgrade.
Do you really think Waller > Hockenson? Hockenson not injured. But perhaps Waller has the better offense and hasn't gotten a zero when he plays... Maybe go for upside.
Last edited by a moderator:
TheWinz
Footballguy
Is $94 guy an FBG'er? I only ask to see if you are willing to post how you think he will bid for Mixon, Hill, Diggs, and Montgomery.
No idea... I'm guessing not based on the fact that I haven't been losing my bids this year... But he could be playing the long game and not wanting to tip his hand (i.e. like in Imitation Game and not wanting to tip off the Germans).
Based on past history. He will probably go $61 and $33 to secure his guys if he doesn't want to get cute. There are ways he can secure multiple guys if he gives up Mixon but I'm not really sure whether I can or should plan for that. One level above that. He can bid $61 and $27 if he doesn't care between Diggs/Hill and gives me the priority and keep the $6 for Gronk. However, he would have to assume I spent 33 on Montgomery and
He's bid like only 4 other times. He usually just goes after the best RB and TEs. He did go after Metcalf and got him / Pittman and got him / and Allen but barely lost him by $1. So I think its very likely he will try to get Mixon then Diggs or Hill and Gronk if he can fit it.
Last week he bid $1 more than me for Ekeler and I bid almost all in too... It's likely he'll do the same for Mixon but not guaranteed.
It's easier to plan based on him doing $61 for sure. If I bid $60 on Mixon and don't get him, I know for sure he spent $61 and can plan the rest of my bids accordingly. Otherwise, if he bids less than $61.... It will be hard for me to win 2 out of 4. He could block me out of getting anyone else if he wanted to. I guess this is how I'll know if he reads this thread or not.
Last edited by a moderator:
Yup.
That is $60 on Mixon. Assures me I get Mixon unless he bids $61. If I get Mixon I drop Jamaal I'm done.
If not, then $33 on Hill and drop Jamaal. Assures me I get Hill as he has $33 left and I get tie breaker.
Then I have $27 left.
I can bid $27 on Montgomery and hope I get him and drop Henderson. And if not, then I know he has $5 left. I can get diggs and drop Chase and Gronk and drop Hockenson. Then have some cash leftover in case I change my mind and want to pickup anyone I drop the next day.
Last edited by a moderator:
You can if you drop him during waivers. You can't if you drop him during free agency. I've tested it. This is because they have to go to waivers before free agency and anyone dropped in free agency skips waivers.
Last edited by a moderator:
QB Brady
RB Kamara
RB Mixon
WR Kupp
WR Jefferson
FLEX Conner
FLEX Lamb
TE Hockenson
BE Lamar
BE Robinson
BE Barkley
BE Henderson
BE Chase
BE Waller
That might be prudent. Not sure Pitts will be good without Ridley. Hopefully you can get a QB too.
I don't trust Dak any more than the two I've got. Hopefully Murray slips through and I can beat the other guy to the punch (he has Rodgers and Cousins).
What do I do with Mattison if Cook plays? Do I drop him for someone else before the game (otherwise I assume he'll be locked on my roster the rest of the way)? If Cook doesn't play then I guess I just need to start him this week and let him take up potentially dead space the rest of the way.
Yeah, if Cook is back I'd drop Mattison. Didn't realize Cook was that far back already.
Also, just realized guy dropped Swift for Montgomery. Doubt he'll make it to FA but maybe I pick him up and drop one of my scrub RBs if he does...
For sure.
With bye weeks (Waddle, D.Harris) I really need Deebo to play on Sunday or I might be left holding the bag at 4pm. Hardly anyone to pick up in the remaining games if he doesn't.
QB - Mahomes, Hurts
RB - Najee, Patterson, Mattison, Robinson, D.Harris, Dillon
WR - Kupp, Deebo, Diggs, Waddle
TE - Gronk, Pitts
Last edited by a moderator:
Dropped Mattison and picked up Goedert.
Dillon is the only other guy I can plug in if Deebo doesn't play. I can pick someone else up late, but I'm not sure who I could pick up better than Dillon. And who would I drop? Mahomes?
Last edited by a moderator:
Yeah najee did good. Kind of upset Steelers didn’t crap out cause chase najee and dionte started for 3 other teams and did well. I’m going to have to score 150 this week to be safe. What are your options on waiver? Not sure you need 3 qb.QB - Mahomes, Murray, Hurts
RB - Najee, Patterson, Swift, Robinson, Dillon
WR - Kupp, Deebo, Diggs, Waddle
TE - Gronk, Goedert
Here's my current roster/lineup.
Aren't we glad the Steelers came alive last night??
Last edited by a moderator:
Oh sorry, I was thinking you had Najee too. I'm glad he came around or else I would have been squarely behind the 8-ball already with Cook, Jefferson, Dionte, and even Freiermuth going off.
ETA: I guess it was D.Harris we both had (along with JRob).
Last edited by a moderator:
zed2283 said:
Yeah for this week? Not sure theres someone better than Dillon. Freeman would be close but its a wash. Stevenson / Pollard may be good down the stretch in playoffs if they get majority of carries. Maybe that's worth more than having 3 QBs but up to you. Not really any obvious ones here so not sure theres a wrong answer.
qzed2283 said:
Actually can you pickup Michel? Should be a good start this week with all the carries.
Actually considering whether i should drop Henderson for Michel and start Michel over Barkley/Robinson/Conner. Not sure if I even need Henderson after this week or if I'd feel comfortable starting Henderson his first week back so maybe I will drop him.
Last edited by a moderator:
