Snap Judgments Don Banks, SI.com Here's what Rematch Weekend in the NFL playoffs will teach us: It's tough to beat a good team more than once in the same season.Washington, Denver, Chicago and Indianapolis won their regular-season meetings with their divisional round opponent, but I see only the Colts being able to make it a two-game sweep.• In a matchup that features a team with a great running game and a team with great run defense, I'll take the run defense most every time. That's why I think the key component of the Patriots-Broncos chess match favors the two-time defending champions.Denver averaged 158.7 rushing yards per game this season, less than a half-yard behind first-place Atlanta (159.1). Against the Patriots in Week 6, the Broncos rolled up 178 yards rushing, the second-most New England allowed this season. But that was then, this is now. In their last eight games of the regular season, when their defense got both Tedy Bruschi and Richard Seymour back for the majority of the time, and found the best spot inside for linebacker Mike Vrabel, the Patriots gave up only 68.6 yards rushing per game, the best mark in the NFL during that span.Throw out the 148 yards that Miami rushed for in Week 17 against mostly Patriots scrubs, and New England gave up just 57.2 rushing yards per game when it really mattered in the second half.One more statistic: In their four December games, all of which were wins, the Patriots allowed just 31 yards rushing per week. Last week against Jacksonville, New England surrendered 47 yards on 12 carries by Jaguars running backs.• The more I look at the Carolina-Chicago matchup on Sunday, the more I get the feeling that the Panthers might wind up playing the role that Philadelphia did when it went into old Soldier Field and embarrassed the 13-3, division-champion Bears in 2001's divisional round. Chicago lost 33-19 to the Eagles, ending its magic carpet ride of a season in swift fashion.• More reason for concern in Chicago? The Bears defense ain't what it used to be. In their past four games, the Bears have allowed 75 points, or almost 19 per game. In the eight previous games, Chicago surrendered just 68 points, or 8.5 per game.• Even more reason to worry if you're a Bears fan? You already know that all four first-time playoff quarterbacks lost in last week's first round (Chris Simms, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning and Carson Palmer). The only team starting a QB with no previous playoff experience this week? That would be the Bears and Rex Grossman.• You think of the Colts and you think offense, with all of those points and all of those weapons. You think of the Steelers, and you think defense and a power running game. But some stereotypes outlive reality.Since losing 26-7 at Indianapolis on Nov. 28, the Steelers have averaged 29.5 points in six games, topping 30 points four times in that span. In their most recent six games, the Colts have averaged just 22.3 points per game, scoring more than 30 just once.In each team's past three games, the contrast has been even starker. Pittsburgh has scored 107 points (35.7 average), while the Colts, resting many of their regulars, have tallied just 47 (15.7).Go figure.• Did Washington quarterback Mark Brunell really only complete four passes for eight yards in the second half at Tampa Bay last week? And he won? That's got to be a misprint.• It's been about 7,665 days since Seattle won a playoff game. That's why I'm picking the Seahawks this week at home against Washington. They're due.• So Mike McCarthy's in, Mike Mularkey's out, and Herm Edwards goes all Mark McGwire on us, because he's not here to talk about the past. Yep, call it another fun week on the NFL coaching carousel.Some other quick-hit observations:• Maybe time will bear out a success story, but at first glance, how is it that Green Bay can sell McCarthy as a big upgrade over the fired Mike Sherman? Nothing against the 42-year-old ex-49ers offensive coordinator, but his old job doesn't exactly hold the same cache as when Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan and Marty Mornhinweg were using it as a springboard to launch their NFL head coaching careers.McCarthy's offense in San Francisco failed to score a touchdown in half its games this season. He didn't exactly set the world on fire during his stint as the Saints offensive coordinator (2000-04), either, and his only link to Green Bay is having spent 1999 as quarterbacks coach for Ray Rhodes, who went 8-8 in his ill-fated one-year tenure in Titletown. Until this year's 4-12, '99 was the lowest point for the Packers in the Brett Favre era.One more point: It undoubtedly helped McCarthy's candidacy that as the 49ers offensive coordinator last spring he spent weeks analyzing the game of Cal quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whom Green Bay drafted in the first round after San Francisco opted for Utah's Alex Smith at No. 1. We don't know yet what that says about McCarthy's appraisal of Rodgers, but it's probably pertinent.• A year ago at this time, fresh off a 9-7 rookie-season performance in Buffalo, Mularkey looked like one of the NFL's brightest young coaching talents. I still say he is, but nothing went right for him or his Bills in '05, and he walked away from the job Thursday after apparently believing he had little chance to win with a new management structure in Buffalo that's curious at the very least.Mularkey could land somewhere as an offensive coordinator for a year or two, or with all the openings that still exist, another head coaching opportunity could be on the immediate horizon (are you paying attention, Jets?). But he will win again as an NFL head coach at some point, and the Bills might just rue the day he got away.• Mommas, don't let your babies grow up to be NFL head coaches. There's just no future in it. Case in point: The NFC North. Chicago's Lovie Smith, in his second season on the job, is now the dean of the division's head coaches. George Halas, Bud Grant and Vince Lombardi's legacies are apparently safe.• Note to Edwards: You got the job you wanted at the money you wanted, so good for you. But you didn't come out of the move from the Jets to the Chiefs with your reputation for integrity and straight-shooting untarnished. I can understand you not wanting to re-hash the immediate past, since nothing about your self-executed escape from New York looks particularly pretty in the rear-view mirror.• Even some of those who consider themselves big Eric Mangini fans question whether the soon-to-be 35-year-old Patriots defensive coordinator is ready to become a first-time NFL head coach -- let alone one making his debut in the shark-infested waters that come with coaching in New York.Mangini is expected to be interviewed shortly by the Jets, who apparently have him high on their wish list, if not atop it. Such is the rush to emulate the Patriots success -- especially in the AFC East -- that New York seems to be willing to overlook that Mangini doesn't even yet have one full season of experience as a coordinator in the NFL.• Although his name has surfaced in connection with both Detroit and St. Louis' vacancies, Bucs assistant head coach/defensive line coach Rod Marinelli may not land a head coaching job this offseason. But many within the league -- both players and fellow coaches -- say he'll be a success one day as someone's head coach.• The breathless coverage of Reggie Bush's selection of an agent and a marketing team encapsulates all that is nauseating about the money game in professional sports these days. I can hardly wait to find out if Bush really did make his agent agree to work for 1 percent, or stick with the standard 3 percent take. And I thought the buzz about Bush and the number one had to do with the NFL Draft.