MT, if it were me I'd probably go with about 8-10 games played at this point. You can argue any number really, but I think the risk has to be reflected. And I'd say there's a lot of risk right now.
I also might look at where you think he should be drafted just from a TE rankings standpoint and then choose a number of games to move him to that spot for standard scoring.
From a projections standpoint, I'd rather the "experts" project for a full 16 game season, and let me discount based on how many games I think a player will play.
Same with a guy like Gronk - project for 16, and let me decide how much he is worth if he misses 2 games, 6 games, or more.