Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS (1 Viewer)

[Megla]

 Generally I'm looking over information on the pay service I anted up for for late breaking news and changes in the projections. Outside of that I'm generally constructing my lineups to fade the projections done by hoops guyslineups to fade the projections done by hoops guys

Use this link from now on for updates/Injuries

https://twitter.com/baskmonster

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

The pro football service was top-notch  The first year. Staff members were actively engaging posters here and making improvements each and every week. The college football information last year was very good. Regular articles and good projections. As I recall the IVC could be manipulated for the various slates also. I don't see that functionality for the NBA

Actual daily is a far different animal from NFL weekly. Something is an hour late on the football side? Big deal. You now have 3 days and 18 hours to process it instead of 3 days and 20 hours. 

Also, the fluidity of player status affects far more than just that player and his replacement in NBA. RB X is out? Everyone flood to his cheap replacement in mindless groupthink disguised as "gameplay strategy". That way if the projection is "wrong" (as it is with far more regularity in NFL/CFL than you seem willing to admit), it's harmless since "everyone" was on him. 

In the NBA if SF X is out, the new starter might be SG Y, but PF Z will likely see a bump in minutes too. And SG Y2 (not to be confused with SG Y who is starting at the 3, but the regular starter at the 2) will likely take on a larger share of the offense than normal. But SF X wasn't very good defensively and SG Y is very good, but SG Y is kind of undersized compared to the opponent's 3 so he might get posted up some and/or might cause the opponent to go small and play the b/u 2 more minutes than the starting 3. But one team is on game 2 of a b2b and the other is starting a 4-in-5.

So project all of that into a single number for each player. 

 

[Chaos Commish]

Yesterday was a day that rendered planning and projections semi-useless. 

I almost faded the slate, but in the last half hour, needing my fix, I went into three $10 5 team leagues that had some recognizable names from RG leaderboard. My team scored 227.5 and won one league while placing second and cashing in the other two. It was a bad team but professional players had worse teams, go figure?

 

[Chaos Commish]

5 game slate and the lowest total is 209 with 2 220+ totals, should be fun

Yup. I'm in, bigly.

 

[Megla]

Early Look cash LU

Actually in a slate this small I will use my LU for both cash and GPP

Lillard/Holdiay/Ant/Galloway/Harkl/Galla/Jokic/Parker/MTurn

 

[Chaos Commish]

you cant really be complaining about missing a guy being out.

Yes I can. I almost always feature the late games because the west coast has some of the highest scoring teams in the league. In past seasons the players didn't lock until game time. Now they lock three hours before game time. Twice I've had a player go out after the lock. The change to an early lock sucks.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Early Look cash LU

Actually in a slate this small I will use my LU for both cash and GPP

Lillard/Holdiay/Ant/Galloway/Harkl/Galla/Jokic/Parker/MTurn

DK overnight placeholder... PG Galloway, SG Klay, SF PGeorge, PF TYoung, C Plumlee, G Barton, F Durant, Util Aldridge

Some thoughts. I'm leery of all things Denver with a completely healthy roster. I'll probably delete Barton in most lineups today. I like Jrue, I like Galloway, I'm not sure I like both with Brow healthy. I'll have Porzingis in a about a third of my gpps. I'm interested to seeing how he handles GS D. I like the way Plumlee is playing. His numbers don't reflect all of it, but he's on. Interested to see if Jokic can keep it going against him. Anyway, could go on and on. It's early. 

 

[sooted72]

How so?

umm...in the ways i clearly explained in the rest of my post???

lol but its ok ill restate my argument here.  they billed the product as X.  they havent exactly delivered in some peoples eyes.  i think its legit to have a beef with the product regardless of how much they charged.  the 'its only pennies a day so its fine that the product sucks' type argument is pretty lazy and wrong imo.

 

[sooted72]

Didn't see anything on hoopsguys site or rotoworld before 7.  So yeah, I am complaining, lol

this info was definitely both on rotoworld (6:44) and rotogrinders (6:42) pre-lock.

Yes I can. I almost always feature the late games because the west coast has some of the highest scoring teams in the league. In past seasons the players didn't lock until game time. Now they lock three hours before game time. Twice I've had a player go out after the lock. The change to an early lock sucks.

you misunderstood my post.  obv im not talking about somebody where theres no info pre-lock and the player gets scratched at 930 for a 10pm start.  that sucks but theres nothing you can do about it.  im specifically talking about people complaining that they missed last minute news before 7.  theres no excuse for that.  if you play nba dfs seriously on fan duel you should be sitting in front of a computer between 6-7 and just watching for last minute news.  and from multiple sources.  its the nature of the beast.

 

[Megla]

umm...in the ways i clearly explained in the rest of my post???

lol but its ok ill restate my argument here.  they billed the product as X.  they havent exactly delivered in some peoples eyes.  i think its legit to have a beef with the product regardless of how much they charged.  the 'its only pennies a day so its fine that the product sucks' type argument is pretty lazy and wrong imo.

LOL

I understand your frustrations, especially when it comes to no one addressing some of your questions/lack of response from Hoopguys and I agree that is something they need to address if they plan to continue to offer this service next NBA season.  But for what amounts to $.12 a day its hard to have real high expectations no?

Things I'd like to see next year

A March Madness section with articles/projections/IVC for the slates that are offered by both FD and DK

A posted time that is relatively kept to as to when the daily IVC and game summaries will be posted.  It would make a world of difference if I could just look at the site at say 4pm each day (posted submission time suggestion) and know that everything will be there completed rather than having to constantly check in to see if all of the articles/summaries are complete.

I don't know that much can be done about the accuracy of the IVC, even as it is now its still a good tool to work from the start of your LUs with.

Just my thoughts

And I stated I understood his frustrations, specifically with the lack of response.

By all means show me where I said

"The product sucks"

 

[sooted72]

 Generally I'm looking over information on the pay service I anted up for for late breaking news and changes in the projections. Outside of that I'm generally constructing my lineups to fade the projections done by hoops guyslineups to fade the projections done by hoops guys

so as someone who actively talks about how bad the service is, its the only source of info you use on last minute player news, huh?  makes sense.

 

[sooted72]

By all means show me where I said

"The product sucks"

by all means show me where i said you said "the product sucks" 

 

[Megla]

by all means show me where i said you said "the product sucks" 

the 'its only pennies a day so its fine that the product sucks' type argument is pretty lazy and wrong imo.

 

[sooted72]

the 'its only pennies a day so its fine that the product sucks' type argument is pretty lazy and wrong imo.

right.  i stand by that take.  whats your point?

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Melo out. How much do we bump Porzingis? Or does the (already high before Melo ruled) blowout percentage go too high to risk only getting 3 quarters of him?

 

[Megla]

right.  i stand by that take.  whats your point?

My point is what I said was that when you are only paying around $.12 a day for a service you have temper your expectations, that's neither 'lazy or wrong'

 

[sooted72]

def concerned about porzingis.  no rose, no melo.  should be blowout city.  doubt they leave him out there to drown by himself.  im not sure the increase in usage makes up for the potential blowout concerns.  maybe it does though idk.  def has to be factored in imo.

 

[Megla]

Melo out. How much do we bump Porzingis? Or does the (already high before Melo ruled) blowout percentage go too high to risk only getting 3 quarters of him?

Might mean a bump down now because a blowout is more likely

 

[Megla]

So do you guys agree with the thought that in a small slate like tonight's, when there is only 1 player of top tier level, that he is a must start in cash, maybe even GPPs?

 

[sooted72]

My point is what I said was that when you are only paying around $.12 a day for a service you have temper your expectations, that's neither 'lazy or wrong'

lol ok.  sure your statement is fine in a vaccuum, nobody would argue with it.  lets move on to the real point...

they promised all this stuff.  they chose the price.  people paid it expecting them to deliver on the promises. if a buyer doesnt feel theyve received what they paid for, they have a right to complain imo regardless of whether its free, 1k or just a measly .12 a day.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

So do you guys agree with the thought that in a small slate like tonight's, when there is only 1 player of top tier level, that he is a must start in cash, maybe even GPPs?

You talking Brow?

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

What do we do w/ Jokic tonight? He's been playing incredibly good basketball for a pretty good stretch. But now everyone is back. Based on recent play, he's a $7500 player for only $6000. But I don't know what will happen w/ his minutes. 

 

[Megla]

lol ok.  sure your statement is fine in a vaccuum, nobody would argue with it.  lets move on to the real point...

they promised all this stuff.  they chose the price.  people paid it expecting them to deliver on the promises. if a buyer doesnt feel theyve received what they paid for, they have a right to complain imo regardless of whether its free, 1k or just a measly .12 a day.

And I agree, and I did so when bassnbrew posted

 

[Megla]

You talking Brow?

Yepper

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I keep ending up with too many Bulls or too many (non-Brow) Pelicans. I like Jennings as a near-lock @ 1 PG spot. After that I keep going back and forth with Jrue and Rajon. 

At SG I like Wade, Galloway, and maybe Klay. I could also talk myself into the Port SGs. Barton worries me with everyone being back for Denver, but I like him at his price in a vacuum. 

At SF I like ... Butler above the rest. After that I like Turner, Kawhi, PG, and Turner/Harkless. 

At PF I've been man-crushing on Jokic for awhile, but everyone is back. Jabari looks good to me, as do Jones, Brow, and Taj. 

At C, I'm on Plumlee with Henson and Pau as alternatives. If NY is getting pounded, will Black Irish or Hernangomez get some play? Yet another Bull has some appeal in Lopez (b/c I want both Lopezes to suck for me in one 30 hour stretch). 

 

[Megla]

What do we do w/ Jokic tonight? He's been playing incredibly good basketball for a pretty good stretch. But now everyone is back. Based on recent play, he's a $7500 player for only $6000. But I don't know what will happen w/ his minutes. 

Knowing that Harris is back to even more muddy the water Jokic is the only Den player I like

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Yepper

I'm not seeing him as must-play tonight with the "tier 2" salary guys who appeal to me (Butler, Kawhi, PG, Wade, Jrue). That said, I can build a l/u with him I don't dislike. 

 

[Megla]

I keep ending up with too many Bulls or too many (non-Brow) Pelicans. I like Jennings as a near-lock @ 1 PG spot. After that I keep going back and forth with Jrue and Rajon. 

At SG I like Wade, Galloway, and maybe Klay. I could also talk myself into the Port SGs. Barton worries me with everyone being back for Denver, but I like him at his price in a vacuum. 

At SF I like ... Butler above the rest. After that I like Turner, Kawhi, PG, and Turner/Harkless. 

At PF I've been man-crushing on Jokic for awhile, but everyone is back. Jabari looks good to me, as do Jones, Brow, and Taj. 

At C, I'm on Plumlee with Henson and Pau as alternatives. If NY is getting pounded, will Black Irish or Hernangomez get some play? Yet another Bull has some appeal in Lopez (b/c I want both Lopezes to suck for me in one 30 hour stretch). 

Second look LU

Holid/Jenn/Galloway/McCollum/Butler/GR III/AD/Jokic/R Lopez

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Second look LU

Holid/Jenn/Galloway/McCollum/Butler/GR III/AD/Jokic/R Lopez

Not too different from where I am right now. I just spent up for Kawhi instead of Brow:

Jennings/Jrue

Galloway/Wade (could totally see McCollum here over Wade)

Butler/Kawhi

Jokic/Parker

Plumlee

 

[Megla]

Not too different from where I am right now. I just spent up for Kawhi instead of Brow:

Jennings/Jrue

Galloway/Wade (could totally see McCollum here over Wade)

Butler/Kawhi

Jokic/Parker

Plumlee

Lets just hope for a better night, last night was rough!!

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Lets just hope for a better night, last night was rough!!

Let's. The way things are going, all this work will be obsolete in 2 hours. 

 

[sooted72]

this might be crazy talk, but im looking at tyson chandler.  2 monster (albeit ot-fueled) performances in a row.  its like the perfect storm of no alex len, spurs bad vs c, bad night for c overall in what i feel like should stay a close game.  somebody talk me out of this please.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Not too different from where I am right now. I just spent up for Kawhi instead of Brow:

Jennings/Jrue

Galloway/Wade (could totally see McCollum here over Wade)

Butler/Kawhi

Jokic/Parker

Plumlee

Could also go Kawhi=>Turner, Plumlee=>Henson, Parker=>Brow. And still have a touch left over to turn Wade into McCollum. 

But all that feels riskier. 

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

this might be crazy talk, but im looking at tyson chandler.  2 monster (albeit ot-fueled) performances in a row.  its like the perfect storm of no alex len, spurs bad vs c, bad night for c overall in what i feel like should stay a close game.  somebody talk me out of this please.

I don't think it's a bad play at all. Alan Williams might be worth a look too. I don't think that game will stay particularly close though. 

 

[sooted72]

I don't think that game will stay particularly close though. 

why not?

 

[sooted72]

jennings seems like a no-brainer but idk i dont really like any nyk tonight.

 

[BassNBrew]

so as someone who actively talks about how bad the service is, its the only source of info you use on last minute player news, huh?  makes sense.

Well that portion of it had previously been good.  Last night I only had time to check one source before tip.

The Morris news didn't impact me as I had some other shuck heaving bricks last night.  Felt bad for the others who got stung.

 

[BassNBrew]

Hoops guys fades of the night (guys that will exceed Hoopsguys projections)

PG - Rondo 28.8, Curry 37.8, Bowden 15.9

SG - McCollum 32.0, Wade 31.8

SF - none

PF - Vonleh 11.7

C - Dedmon 12.5, McGee 16.4

 

[BassNBrew]

Gasol has had some week performances on the second night.

 

[Megla]

Lord I'm bored

Did  GPP loaded with GSW in both the main and late night

Main

Curry,BJenn,CLee,KD,Chandler,Porz,Parker,OQuinn

Late night

Curry,BJenn,Klay,GHarris,KD,ETurner,Dray,Jokic, Plum

Also did a Den/Port loaded for the main

Lillaed,JNel,McColl,Barton,Iguodala,Harkl,Jokic,AD,Plum

Worst $9 bucks I ever spent,LOL

 

[Chaos Commish]

this info was definitely both on rotoworld (6:44) and rotogrinders (6:42) pre-lock.

you misunderstood my post.  obv im not talking about somebody where theres no info pre-lock...

Maybe that was obvious to you but not to me, not the way you wrote it. Huge pet peave of mine this year is dealing with the early lock. No big deal. Carry on.

No Rose, no Melo... NY punting... sigh. No idea how that shakes out for their roster but I think a massive blowout is likely enough to fade Kristaps, and question Jennings or Kyle O... 

 

[BassNBrew]

Maybe that was obvious to you but not to me, not the way you wrote it. Huge pet peave of mine this year is dealing with the early lock. No big deal. Carry on.

No Rose, no Melo... NY punting... sigh. No idea how that shakes out for their roster but I think a massive blowout is likely enough to fade Kristaps, and question Jennings or Kyle O... 

Courtney Lee a viable option.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Courtney Lee a viable option.

He's been dead to me for over two years. 

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Lord I'm bored

Did  GPP loaded with GSW in both the main and late night

Main

Curry,BJenn,CLee,KD,Chandler,Porz,Parker,OQuinn

Late night

Curry,BJenn,Klay,GHarris,KD,ETurner,Dray,Jokic, Plum

Also did a Den/Port loaded for the main

Lillaed,JNel,McColl,Barton,Iguodala,Harkl,Jokic,AD,Plum

Worst $9 bucks I ever spent,LOL

I like the Den/Port stack. That means it's probably terrible. 

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

why not?

Because SA is much better than Phoenix. 

 

[BassNBrew]

My staff of 15 experts came across this tidbit in prepping for tonight's slate...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoFcPpUQ7Fs

 

[sooted72]

Because SA is much better than Phoenix. 

nice breakdown!

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

nice breakdown!

I don't know what else to say. They're laying 8 and I think that's 3 too few. 

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Ugh. Lock at 8:00 not 7:00. I've got about 5 mins of time left then I have to go dark. Great. 

 

[Megla]

I like the Den/Port stack. That means it's probably terrible. 

LOL