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Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS (1 Viewer)

And David Lee is 4-4 w/ 6 boards. That's translates to 8-8 w/ 9 boards for Gasol. Damnit. He was very lightly owned too. 
Quinn doesn't do #### last night and tonite Hermangormez hasn't seen a minute.  Got burned on Parker scratch after lock and then Gasol.  This crap is getting to the point that craps would be a better investment.

 
Quinn doesn't do #### last night and tonite Hermangormez hasn't seen a minute.  Got burned on Parker scratch after lock and then Gasol.  This crap is getting to the point that craps would be a better investment.
Don't get too down -- it happens. Build good lineups and over the long haul it'll be ok. You can't get too stressed over the short term -- though it's real tempting at times. 

 
Quinn doesn't do #### last night and tonite Hermangormez hasn't seen a minute.  Got burned on Parker scratch after lock and then Gasol.  This crap is getting to the point that craps would be a better investment.
 Yeah Quinn screwed me too last night, missed cashing by 1.7 points.

 
Don't get too down -- it happens. Build good lineups and over the long haul it'll be ok. You can't get too stressed over the short term -- though it's real tempting at times. 
But where the heck did Hermangomez come from last night.  I read nothing but Quinn and everyone had him projected through the roof.  The big winners last night had him.  Dumb luck or inside info?

 
But where the heck did Hermangomez come from last night.  I read nothing but Quinn and everyone had him projected through the roof.  The big winners last night had him.  Dumb luck or inside info?
I actually like Hernangomez as a young player. That's a "hot hand" situation. I chased the O'Quinn points last night myself, but knew better. Way too much risk there for cash lineups. 

 
And FWIW I chased points w/ Kuz tonight too. It's a tough line between ID'ing a guy on an upward trend and chasing points. Typically role guys who get hot can't sustain it for long. Efficiency is tough to sustain over more minutes a night and over the long haul. There's a reason journeymen starters get big contracts -- guys who can contribute 30+ minutes every night aren't commonplace. 

 
And FWIW I chased points w/ Kuz tonight too. It's a tough line between ID'ing a guy on an upward trend and chasing points. Typically role guys who get hot can't sustain it for long. Efficiency is tough to sustain over more minutes a night and over the long haul. There's a reason journeymen starters get big contracts -- guys who can contribute 30+ minutes every night aren't commonplace. 
I avoided Kuz when I saw Porzingis was a go late and so much other value on the board like Gasol and Parker (vs. Denver).

Of course I I have Mills in my late lineups and he has a 1/2 point.  WTF.

 
I avoided Kuz when I saw Porzingis was a go late and so much other value on the board like Gasol and Parker (vs. Denver).

Of course I I have Mills in my late lineups and he has a 1/2 point.  WTF.
I generally avoid all non-Kawhi and Gasol Spurs unless it's a punt, at least in cash. I even have to have Megla talk me in to Kawhi when I do play him. That team just isn't reliable in terms of DFS points outside of those 2. Gasol had a GREAT spot tonight IMO. I was shocked his ownership was so low. 

 
Early look GPP LUs

Bleds/Felton

Barton/Booker

Mello/Porter

Jokic/Markif

Chandler

Also have this with Rivers replacing Felton
These two LUs could lead me to my best NBA night of my DSF playing days

Stay low scoring with Rivers and/or Felton scoring

Fingers crossed

 
Felton LU sitting at 350.10 with a half to go

In the 500K sitting at 77th with only 11 players ahead of me with players left

Winning a mini Doppler by a ton

Rivers LU sitting at 343.40

Sitting at 17th in the 40K $2 single entry and 14th in the 20K single entry

Gonna have to have a bourbon for this last half of play

 
That was fun, at one point my winnings read $11,147.00

And then AJordan  and KAT went to work

Oh well, $42 in $658 out, not my best NBA night but nice none the less

 
That was fun, at one point my winnings read $11,147.00

And then AJordan  and KAT went to work

Oh well, $42 in $658 out, not my best NBA night but nice none the less
Congrats Megla, really nice.  

On my end, $12 in, and $12 out.

 
Very nice, Megla. I haven't rung the bell in a while. 

Im going to blame Gasol's freak injury for my loss, but the truth is I would have needed a monster from him to cash (45 would probably have done it). So I'm just going to assume he would have had at least 50, which seems very reasonable. 

 
Very nice, Megla. I haven't rung the bell in a while. 

Im going to blame Gasol's freak injury for my loss, but the truth is I would have needed a monster from him to cash (45 would probably have done it). So I'm just going to assume he would have had at least 50, which seems very reasonable. 
Yea, Gasol torpedoed about a third of my LUs as well

 
Very nice, Megla. I haven't rung the bell in a while. 

Im going to blame Gasol's freak injury for my loss, but the truth is I would have needed a monster from him to cash (45 would probably have done it). So I'm just going to assume he would have had at least 50, which seems very reasonable. 
Got a question for you, do you pay Mikeman via a paypal account?  If so would you consider taking a money order from me and paying for me as well?  Don't really want to creat a paypal account just for that.

I will send you a $30 money order and then you can PM me the password once you get my MO

 
Damn, Wash/Houst at 237
I know, but I'm not finding a ton of value there. Maybe Beverly? Harden is obviously always a possibility, but he's $12,200 so he has to frigging go off to justify that price. I like Ariza, but there are SFs I like better (Butler and Gordon and maybe Durant). Other than Durant, I'm reluctant to pay premium pricing for players on GS when they could all just be "meh" and still score 120. 

 
My current cash build:

Lowry/Elfrid

Temple/Allen

Gordon/Butler

ZBo/Jabari

Embiid

Could go Embiid=>Turner and Elfrid=>Conley or really blow it up w/ Lowry=>Conley, Butler=>Ingram, Allen=>Greek. 

 
Alright ATO help me decipher some of Mikemans stuff

What does Low 70 and high 70 mean?

On the Player LU Preview what does the column (CPP) stand for? Cost per point?

Are the columns 2014 FD, 2015 FD the average FD points that player score in that year?

What do L7 Min represent?

I assume the 70% Range is the floor and ceiling points wise for that player

?

 
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Alright ATO help me decipher some of Mikemans stuff

What does Low 70 and high 70 mean? Those are the lineups for the "highest floor" and "highest ceiling" scenarios based on his 70% range (basically 1 standard deviation). Low 70 is a low-risk lineup, High 70 is a high-risk lineup  

On the Player LU Preview what does the column (CPP) stand for? Cost per point? Yes, cost per point  

Are the columns 2014 FD, 2015 FD the average FD points that player score in that year? Yes  

What do L7 Min represent? Average minutes played over the last 7 days (not games -- days)  

I assume the 70% Range is the floor and ceiling points wise for that player

? That's the range that represents a 70% confidence level for that player per the math -- basically a standard deviation. That's closely tied to "risk". As "risk" approaches "0" that range gets tighter. As "risk" approaches "10" (the highest", that range gets much wider. Actually the cause is the range and the effect is the risk assessment, but they are directly related.
See above. 

 
Got it, thanks

I took his Player LU Preview and cut and pasted it into an excel spreadsheet by position so I could manipulate it based on how I wanted it sorted, I assume you do the same thing?
Yep. You can filter games by start time for smaller slates on the night. I go ahead and jettison players who are dead to me as well. 

 
My $25 GPP LU

Holiday/Payton

TAllen/Temple

Butler/KD

Parker/TBook

Valancuinas

My $10 GPP LU

Payton/Clarkson

Harden/Baum

AGord/BIngrm

ZBO/Randle

Embiid

 
Finally had a legitimately good night. 287.9 was good enough to rake. It was mostly early guys so I had to watch my winning whittle away, but still managed 4.2 units out on 1.1 units in. Early in the LAL game when I had finished I was looking at 13+/- units. 

This was a real win finally. I'm 6-2 over the last 8 days, but until last night I wasn't actually up very much cash over that stretch. 

 
In Memphis to watch the Rockets play the Grizz. Both teams on the backside of a b2b so I'm worried about rest. I'm hoping Freak2 is in full-on attack mode and the Grizz are in full-on grindhouse mode. Will obviously have at least a couple GPPs loaded with players from these teams.

 
I'm struggling to get a lineup that comes close to spending $60k. Right now this is what I have ($58k). I'm going to Grizz game, so Conley, Allen, and ZBo will be tough to pivot off. I'm open to all suggestions.

Conley/Kemba
Allen/Temple

Leonard/Ingles
ZBo/Jokic
Okafor

 
Gonna swing for the fences with these two early NBA early LUs

A few $25 and $50 entries

Williams, Payton,Klay,LouWill,KD,HBarns,Gree, Powell,Vicivic

Curry, Payton,WMath,LouWill,KD,AGord,Ibaka,Green,Pachula

Good luck all

 
Man, did I pick a bad game to go to last night. Of course I had Grizz everywhere. And of course they didn't do anything. FWIW, Dekker is really good when left completely and utterly alone at the 3-point line, which was apparently the Grizz's plan. But if that dude has to dribble he looks like me. 

I prbsbly compounded my last night losses by panic-assembling a lineup for 0.8 units in about 4 minutes. I thought I had til 6:00 central, but only had til 5:00. 

 
Got a question for you, do you pay Mikeman via a paypal account?  If so would you consider taking a money order from me and paying for me as well?  Don't really want to creat a paypal account just for that.

I will send you a $30 money order and then you can PM me the password once you get my MO
I've also started using Mike thanks to @Tennessee_ATO.  my first day using his projections I hit big (for me anyways) $18in, $90 out.

 
0.8 units in 0.94 units out. A win, but yet another small one. I'm now 7-3 over the last 10 days, but only up 4.2 units. Very odd stretch. Typically when I'm having this much success in terms of overall winning vs. losing days I'm ringing the bell with some regularity, but not this time. 

 
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Rolling with 4 GPP LUs tonight, no cash,

Irv/Holid/Klay/EGord/Otto/MMorris/Love/ThadY/DJordan-

Dragic/Rivers/Hard/Ant/Ingles/MMorris/DLee/Tobia/Pachulla-

Drag/Felton/DMurray/Beal/Kawi/Otto/Love/Parker/MTurn- #2 LU

Teague/Drag/Batum/Waiters/Ingles/Otto/Love/Kanter/DJordan- #1 LU

Felt/Mills/Hard/Batum/Mello/Ingles/Parker/Tobia/MTurn- #3 LU

Starting Kanter assuming Adams sits

If KCP starts may have to move off MMorris

Any thoughts?

 
Rolling with 4 GPP LUs tonight, no cash,

Irv/Holid/Klay/EGord/Otto/MMorris/Love/ThadY/DJordan-

Dragic/Rivers/Hard/Ant/Ingles/MMorris/DLee/Tobia/Pachulla-

Drag/Felton/DMurray/Beal/Kawi/Otto/Love/Parker/MTurn- #2 LU

Teague/Drag/Batum/Waiters/Ingles/Otto/Love/Kanter/DJordan- #1 LU

Felt/Mills/Hard/Batum/Mello/Ingles/Parker/Tobia/MTurn- #3 LU

Starting Kanter assuming Adams sits

If KCP starts may have to move off MMorris

Any thoughts?
I like Morris a ton if KCP sits. Also like Goran, Tobias, Parker quite a bit. SA offers a rare chance at value if Brooklyn can keep it close for awhile. I'm looking at 2 lineups tonight, 1 Spur-centric, 1 not. When I feel ok w/ them I'll post them.

I'm really liking Mike's 2 best lineup for cash tonight. I may just steal it for one. My other plates in at "only" 304 on his projection, but it carries only a 3.12 risk, and the bulk of that is tied up in Patty's 8.2, which I think is really off w/ Parker out. I'd subjectiveky out it more like a 4.5, which reduces risk to 2.7 which is nice for cash if it's good enough to place. 

 
Some of you know me and some of you don't, but I am thinking about giving basketball a try again. Anyways I haven't watched any basketball this year so anyone want to give me pointers on this lineup?

PG Goran Dragic 

PG Kemba Walker 

SG James Harden 

SG Dejounte Murray 

SF Joe Ingles 

SF Paul George 

PF David Lee 

PF LaMarcus Aldridge 

C Marcin Gortat 

 
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I'm new to Bball myself but it looks pretty solid. Not sure about Ingles and Murray as Ive never really heard of them but like I said I'm new to NBA. Is this for cash or gpp? I seem to be terrible at 50/50s for NBA--never know who the chalky or must play guys are-- so just do $1 gpps here and there.

 
I'm new to Bball myself but it looks pretty solid. Not sure about Ingles and Murray as Ive never really heard of them but like I said I'm new to NBA. Is this for cash or gpp? I seem to be terrible at 50/50s for NBA--never know who the chalky or must play guys are-- so just do $1 gpps here and there.
Ingles and Murray are getting (or should get) bigger minutes than normal due to injuries. 

 
Some of you know me and some of you don't, but I am thinking about giving basketball a try again. Anyways I haven't watched any basketball this year so anyone want to give me pointers on this lineup?

PG Goran Dragic 

PG Kemba Walker 

SG James Harden 

SG Dejounte Murray 

SF Joe Ingles 

SF Paul George 

PF David Lee 

PF LaMarcus Aldridge 

C Marcin Gortat 
The Spurs can be worrisome for a couple reasons: Brooklyn really sucks and Pop will rest guys. Murray and Lee are probably reasonably safe to get minutes tho. I like Gortat tonight. I'm currently using Jordan everywhere but will likely get some Gortat in there as an alternative. Don't really see anyone talking up Kemba, but he's at home and always apt to shoot well there. 

 
Some of you know me and some of you don't, but I am thinking about giving basketball a try again. Anyways I haven't watched any basketball this year so anyone want to give me pointers on this lineup?

PG Goran Dragic 

PG Kemba Walker 

SG James Harden 

SG Dejounte Murray 

SF Joe Ingles 

SF Paul George 

PF David Lee 

PF LaMarcus Aldridge 

C Marcin Gortat 
Dont Like George and I hate LA, dont trust any SA other that Kai and that is limited

Having LEe, Murray and Ingles in one LU is also worrisome, Id move off Walker and keep Ingles

 

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