How did FF community get Equanimeous St. Brown so wrong? (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

Explain to me why this board and the fantasy football community in general, was so in love with this guy in devy leagues?  He was chosen very high in devy leagues in 2017.  Not only did the Packers take two other WRs before him in the 2018 draft and his assent would seem to be a very difficult road, but the NFL wasn't nearly as high on him as was fantasy football owners.  How could fantasy football be so wrong?  I'm not saying he'll never amount to anything, but you have to admit the praise he was receiving in fantasy circles in 2017 wasn't justified. 

 

[jimmy b]

Who..?

 

[Interseptopus]

I never thought it was justified. 

 

[identikit]

Just like countless players the FF community gets wrong.

And the NFL gets wrong.

 

[JohnnyU]

In two of my devy leagues he was chosen 1.03 and 1.07 last year. 

 

[JohnnyU]

Just like countless players the FF community gets wrong.

And the NFL gets wrong.

It's a little more than that.  His initial ranking in devy leagues was very high in fantasy football, but never in NFL circles. 

 

[Interseptopus]

his attitude sucks. probably why he dropped. he has great measurables and had a great combine

 

[Bojang0301]

1) Devy darling. His season with Kizer got that community real rev’ed up translating into dynasty community.

2) Elite level height adjusted speed score. It doesn’t grow on trees and it has a strong correlation with success at the pro level.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Same thing every year.  People fall in love over size and measureables over being a football player.  

 

[SameSongNDance]

Because they didn't take into account the fact that he refuses to stretch or play on special teams. 

 

[Bojang0301]

I mean Trent Richardson and Doriel Green-Beckham have every physical trait you want matching what a prototype should be and both are mental midgets unable to complete the process at the pro level. 

 

[JohnnyU]

I mean Trent Richardson and Doriel Green-Beckham have every physical trait you want matching what a prototype should be and both are mental midgets unable to complete the process at the pro level. 

One difference, the NFL was high on both of those players.  It seems only fantasy football was high on ESB. 

 

[Mr Anonymous]

I'm not expecting much in 2018 and wasn't one of those hyping him but I'm scratching my head over closing the book on a guy who is 6 days away from what would be his 1st professional regular season game.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

He did make the team afterall.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

It's a little more than that.  His initial ranking in devy leagues was very high in fantasy football, but never in NFL circles. 

He was the #7 WR prospect at NFL Draft Scout immediately prior to the draft.

 

[Bojang0301]

One difference, the NFL was high on both of those players.  It seems only fantasy football was high on ESB. 

Ya, that’s a good point. I think SSND is right on this one. Him not playing special teams is a huge deal for a project. I think it ended up being a deep class of WR’s where his overall college production ended up middling and his attitude ended up costing him big in the draft. Antonio Callaway got taken in the 4th from probably being contrite during the process. NFL team LOATHE anyone who steps out of line of being told what to do.

 

[JohnnyU]

He did make the team afterall.

Well, I guess that is something   but given what FF was saying about him in 2017 and seemingly ignoring what NFL experts were or weren't saying, it seems odd to me that FF owners were so high on him.  Hell, he may still be a very good WR, but that doesn't change his current draft position in 2017 devy leagues. 

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm not expecting much in 2018 and wasn't one of those hyping him but I'm scratching my head over closing the book on a guy who is 6 days away from what would be his 1st professional regular season game.

I picked him up off the waiver wire recently after someone dropped him, but then dropped him myself for Tyler Boyd.  I suspect those who took him very high in devy leagues in 2017 will hang on to him for a few years and I don't blame them.  However, by the time the 2018 draft came around he was being taken in the 3rd round of dynasty drafts, so there isn't a lot of risk in dropping him. 

 

[Al O'Pecia]

After watching the HBO Sports video on the St. Brown family (Brown family, really) I realized that the father is a poor man's Lavar Ball, and his kids are likely more hype than reality and may be mentally fragile from a having to deal with their dad their whole life.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ukYld9Uw_IQ

 

[bostonfred]

He was arguably the best prospect in college two years ago.  He's young (turns 22 this month), tall (6'5") and fast (4.48 40).  But he probably isn't ready to play at a high level week 1. And that makes him a project.  

Rookie contracts are 4 years.  Guys who produce right away are super valuable - especially at positions like wide receiver where mediocre guys are getting eight figures per year on their second contract.  

Let's say you draft Christian Kirk and get a wr3 season from him. That's all Seattle ever got from Paul Richardson and he just got paid big money.  So which is more valuable - 4 years of Christian Kirk or 2 years of st brown if you can get him to live up to his potential? 

And you have to use a roster spot on him because you can't get him onto your practice squad.  If you already have other projects you might not have room for him. 

Especially if you don't know how long you'll keep your job if you spend an early round pick on a guy and he doesn't produce right away? 

Now consider how deep this year was with good (not necessarily great) receivers.  Ridley looks ready to start from day one.  Sutton has been blowing up in camp and be their third wr.  Kirk and Gallup will probably start. DJ Moore will probably start.  Pettis wil contribute as a receiver and returner.  Even if you have a really high grade on st brown, if you think he's a project, there's so many other guys to choose from.  

I don't think the book is written on him yet.  He's in a good spot where they've successfully developed project receivers in the past.  But he's already fighting to keep that spot with guys like kumerow because they need receivers now. 

 

[JohnnyU]

Let's say you draft Christian Kirk and get a wr3 season from him. That's all Seattle ever got from Paul Richardson and he just got paid big money.  So which is more valuable - 4 years of Christian Kirk or 2 years of st brown if you can get him to live up to his potential? 

Right now I don't think you would find a single Christian Kirk owner who would trade him for ESB, because I think most FF owners think Kirk has more FF potential than ESB.  Most NFL experts had Kirk ranked higher than ESB for a reason. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

A lot of looking at potential here, but he’s also playing for a QB who can make mediocre guys look great and he’s still struggling.  But he is young and it’s way early in his career, but he’d hardly be the first size/speed specimen to fail because he either can’t handle the speed/physicality of the game and/or he can’t handle a playbook and/or he just isn’t interested in investing enough of himself and working hard enough to take his game to the NFL level.  A lot of those are things NFL management and scouts can pick up on in predraft work but that we as FFers get very little insight into.

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[FreeBaGeL]

No different than Lache Seastrunk or Jonathan Dwyer.  Projecting out that far is difficult. 

Is the NFL really any better at it?  I just went back and looked at a 2018 NFL mock that was done back in early 2017 and it had Bo Scarboraugh and Parris Campbell as 1st round picks in 2018's NFL draft, whereas the FF devy community was never really very high on either of those guys and ended up being right.  So in the end you win some, you lose some.

 

[JohnnyU]

A lot of looking at potential here, but he’s also playing for a QB who can make mediocre guys look great and he’s still struggling.  But he is young and it’s way early in his career, but he’s hardly be the first size/speed specimen to fail because he either can’t handle the speed/physicality of the game and/or he can’t handle a playbook and/or he just isn’t interested in investing enough of himself and working hard enough to take his game to the NFL level.  A lot of those are things NFL management and scouts can pick up on in predraft work but that we as FFers get very little insight into.

I'm primarily talking to those in devy leagues, because that is where he was being drafted so highly.  Those leagues were paying more attention to fantasy pundits over NFL pundits IMO.  By the time he was drafted in 2018 the FF community had already caught up with the NFL on ESB.  Right now he's a good stash because of his current draft position in dynasty leagues, which is in the 3rd round or lower. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Let's say you draft Christian Kirk and get a wr3 season from him. That's all Seattle ever got from Paul Richardson and he just got paid big money.  So which is more valuable - 4 years of Christian Kirk or 2 years of st brown if you can get him to live up to his potential? 

Odd choice.  A lot of people, including myself, see Kirk’s long term potential as being much higher than St Brown’s.   Kirk looks like he has the ability to be a legit WR1 at the NFL level.  I can’t find a way that St Brown ever gets there.

 

[bostonfred]

Right now I don't think you would find a single Christian Kirk owner who would trade him for ESB, because I think most FF owners think Kirk has more FF potential than ESB.  Most NFL experts had Kirk ranked higher than ESB for a reason. 

I wasn't talking about fantasy.  I was talking about nfl. Kirk looks ready from day 1 but probably doesn't have the same upside as a 6 foot 5 guy who runs a 4.4.  The nfl has shifted to valuing immediate production more and more.  

Getting 8 million dollars of production from a second round pick for 1.5 million dollars is like drafting 6.5 million dollars in extra cap space.  Getting 20 million in production from a QB you're paying 5 million to is like drafting 15 million in cap space. 

Getting 0 production from a draft pick for the first couple years is a huge waste, and if he does well after that he's going to be grousing about his contract.  Those guys tend to slide.

Nfl guys place a higher value on immediate production.  But fantasy/ dynasty guys place their emphasis on elite upside. I'll gladly trade an immediate contributor for a chance at a true stud. 

 

[JohnnyU]

No different than Lache Seastrunk or Jonathan Dwyer.  Projecting out that far is difficult. 

Is the NFL really any better at it?  I just went back and looked at a 2018 NFL mock that was done back in early 2017 and it had Bo Scarboraugh and Parris Campbell as 1st round picks in 2018's NFL draft, whereas the FF devy community was never really very high on either of those guys and ended up being right.  So in the end you win some, you lose some.

I agree with you to a certain extent.  Scarboraugh was being taken highly in devy drafts at one one if memory serves.  I can't remember where Seastrunk and Dwyer were taken in my devy leagues, which would have been a one or more years before they were eligible for the draft.

 

[squistion]

In two of my devy leagues he was chosen 1.03 and 1.07 last year. 

Confirms one of the reasons I have never joined a devy league. Hard to project NFL success that far in the future.

In my PPR Dynasty Leagues he went generally late 2nd to early 3rd which was not that far out of line given the hype he was given despite his draft slot.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I agree with you to a certain extent.  Scarboraugh was being taken highly in devy drafts at one one if memory serves.  I can't remember where Seastrunk and Dwyer were taken in my devy leagues, which would have been a one or more years before they were eligible for the draft.

I went back and pulled up a couple of devy mocks/rankings from 2017 and one had Scarborough taken at 3.10 in the mock and the other had him ranked 33.  This was at a time where several NFL scouts were still mocking Scarborough in the 1st round of the NFL draft, so in that case I would say the devy community was right for zagging away from the NFL's take.

https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/2017-devy-mock-draft/
https://www.dynastynerds.com/2017-devy-rankings/

I couldn't really find any mocks from back in 2016 so it's certainly possible the devy community was higher on Scarborough back then, but I don't recall.

 

[Ilov80s]

Part of it is we don’t know the players so we aren’t aware of things like a guy not being willing to play ST or refusing to stretch. 

 

[jtd13]

I had to check whether he got cut when I saw this thread. Strange timing. 

 

[JohnnyU]

I went back and pulled up a couple of devy mocks/rankings from 2017 and one had Scarborough taken at 3.10 in the mock and the other had him ranked 33.  This was at a time where several NFL scouts were still mocking Scarborough in the 1st round of the NFL draft, so in that case I would say the devy community was right for zagging away from the NFL's take.

https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/2017-devy-mock-draft/
https://www.dynastynerds.com/2017-devy-rankings/

I couldn't really find any mocks from back in 2016 so it's certainly possible the devy community was higher on Scarborough back then, but I don't recall.

I found where Scarborough was drafted in two of my devy drafts 1.12 in 2014 (14 team league) and 2.02 in 2016 (12 team league).

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

It was all just a ploy to motivate Rico Gathers.

 

[JohnnyU]

It was all just a ploy to motivate Rico Gathers.

Yes, there is one I hung on to for too long.  I wonder if ESB gets the same gratitude from FF owners?

 

[JohnnyU]

Confirms one of the reasons I have never joined a devy league. Hard to project NFL success that far in the future.

In my PPR Dynasty Leagues he went generally late 2nd to early 3rd which was not that far out of line given the hype he was given despite his draft slot.

Yes, that is a variable that makes devy leagues harder in that respect. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Didn't we used to give WRs three years before we wrote them off? Things move fast around here. Already a bust before he plays his first regular season snap.

(I own zero shares, just sayin'... this thread needs to wait a few years)

 

[JohnnyU]

Didn't we used to give WRs three years before we wrote them off? Things move fast around here. Already a bust before he plays his first regular season snap.

(I own zero shares, just sayin'... this thread needs to wait a few years)

Not writing him off, just saying where he was taken in devy drafts in the years before he was draft eligible was based more on FF experts rather than NFL experts and appears to be over-hyped..  Actually his average draft position in 2018 is rather reasonable for an end of bench stash.

 

[massraider]

Didn't we used to give WRs three years before we wrote them off? Things move fast around here. Already a bust before he plays his first regular season snap.

(I own zero shares, just sayin'... this thread needs to wait a few years)

Let's say it's the day after the draft, the question can be rephrased, why did he fall?

It might just be as simple as the draft community, which ties into the devy community, overrating him.  

 

[FF Ninja]

Not writing him off, just saying where he was taken in devy drafts in the years before he was draft eligible was based more on FF experts rather than NFL experts and appears to be over-hyped..  Actually his average draft position in 2018 is rather reasonable for an end of bench stash.

I feel like there's really nothing to see here. He had a nice sophomore year at a fairly young age for a name brand college. Devy drafts reacted accordingly. His junior year isn't as good, NFL draft reacts accordingly. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Who..?

Same - I’ve never heard of the dude. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Didn't we used to give WRs three years before we wrote them off? Things move fast around here. Already a bust before he plays his first regular season snap.

(I own zero shares, just sayin'... this thread needs to wait a few years)

If he is, it’s only because FFers elevated him well beyond what was warranted.  His career still has to play out, but that’s not the topic of discussion.

 

[JohnnyU]

I feel like there's really nothing to see here. He had a nice sophomore year at a fairly young age for a name brand college. Devy drafts reacted accordingly. His junior year isn't as good, NFL draft reacts accordingly. 

Perhaps you don't see it the way I do.  I see him being more over-hyped by FF owners than real NFL analyst.   

 

[FF Ninja]

If he is, it’s only because FFers elevated him well beyond what was warranted.  His career still has to play out, but that’s not the topic of discussion.

The topic of discussion can be pretty quickly resolved as I did in my second post. I don't play in any devy leagues because it adds a pointless level of guessing to a game already filled with guesswork, but obviously in devy leagues people try to extrapolate success. Additionally, players at name brand schools get a boost. ESB had a nice soph year at ND, so devy drafts reacted accordingly, expecting equal or greater success in his upcoming junior year. His third year didn't extrapolate as people expected and the NFL draft reacted accordingly. Case close. Not a real head scratcher, IMO.

 

[JohnnyU]

The topic of discussion can be pretty quickly resolved as I did in my second post. I don't play in any devy leagues because it adds a pointless level of guessing to a game already filled with guesswork, but obviously in devy leagues people try to extrapolate success. Additionally, players at name brand schools get a boost. ESB had a nice soph year at ND, so devy drafts reacted accordingly, expecting equal or greater success in his upcoming junior year. His third year didn't extrapolate as people expected and the NFL draft reacted accordingly. Case close. Not a real head scratcher, IMO.

Then why wasn't the NFL on his bandwagon as much as the FF community?

 

[FF Ninja]

Then why wasn't the NFL on his bandwagon as much as the FF community?

Because the NFL drafted him in 2018 rather than 2017 when the devy hype was strong. If he had come out that year he probably would've been drafted higher in the NFL, too. 

 

[JohnnyU]

Because the NFL drafted him in 2018 rather than 2017 when the devy hype was strong. If he had come out that year he probably would've been drafted higher in the NFL, too. 

The way you talk you would think he would have gotten the same hype in his breakout year in college as AJ Brown and N’Keal Harry, but that wasn’t the case.  I don’t recall ESB ever considered at the top of WR rankings as Brown and Harry are and they won’t be draft eligible until next year.

 

[FF Ninja]

The way you talk you would think he would have gotten the same hype in his breakout year I college as AJ Brown and N’Keal Harry, but that wasn’t the case.

Name brand school.

 

[Bronco Billy]

The topic of discussion can be pretty quickly resolved as I did in my second post. I don't play in any devy leagues because it adds a pointless level of guessing to a game already filled with guesswork, but obviously in devy leagues people try to extrapolate success. Additionally, players at name brand schools get a boost. ESB had a nice soph year at ND, so devy drafts reacted accordingly, expecting equal or greater success in his upcoming junior year. His third year didn't extrapolate as people expected and the NFL draft reacted accordingly. Case close. Not a real head scratcher, IMO.

I disagree completely with your logic.  Hardly case closed.  The impact of his dropping to Rd 6 in the NFL draft should have had a much bigger impact than anything devy leagues put forth, since those league are such a minority of FF leagues and FFers gobble up news readily as it comes out.  Devy leagues don’t drive any of my FF decisions even one iota.  I believe that’s the case with the majority of FFers.

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[FF Ninja]

I disagree completely with your logic.  Hardly case closed.  The impact of his dropping to Rd 6 in the NFL draft should have had a much bigger impact than anything devy leagues put forth, since those league are such a minority of FF leagues and FFers gobble up news readily as it comes out.  Devy leagues don’t drive any of my FF decisions even one iota.  I believe that’s the case with the majority of FFers.

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I'm beginning to think you are the one who is not aware of what is being discussed here. Go re-read the OP.

 

[JohnnyU]

Name brand school.

ND is a name brand school so why was he never considered in the same breath as AJ Brown and N’Keal Harry are now in the eyes of NFL analyst?