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How did Randy Moss actually look? (2 Viewers)

The revisionist history on Culpepper is fascinating. He didn't go to Hawaii three times because he found good deals on Expedia. Culpepper was an excellent QB in the early part of this decade, not just because he had Randy Moss on his team.
So its just a coincidence that Culpepper turned into a pumpkin once Moss left the Vikes (pre-injury)?
Culpepper had only three or four bad games before his injury. It's tough to say.Or do you think Nate Burleson just made Culpepper look better than he was?
"Only 3 or 4 bad games", but he only played 6 full games that year. He was pretty horrible, Chase. It's hard to deny.
He only played 6 games because of injury. You asked why he stunk because of injury, and I'd guess because we didn't see him enough. Tomlinson today looked terrible, so did Jackson. Culpepper was pretty bad in 2005 (although he had two excellent games), but to be fair it's not easy to judge a QB on 3 or 4 bad games. He also threw for 363/4 in a game against the Packers when Moss was out in '04.
 
In Chase's defense, Culpepper's best year was the year Moss was hurt. Wiggins was their leading receiver with 71 receptions, followed by Moss, Burleson and Marcus Robinson. He had his best completion percentage that year.
That's because he was throwing an inordinate amount to RBs all season. Over 100 completions to RBs averaging close to 10 ypc. That's dumpoff city. Culpepper got nearly 1000 yards on RB dumpoffs that year. An anomoly that was never repeated.
Can you explain the anomaly to me? I'm not really following how that dimishes Culpepper's success. When you throw for nearly 5,000 yards, your RBs are going to get a lot of receiving yards.
When you throw a high percentage of your passes to RBs, you are going to have a higher completion percentage. Doesn't "diminish" it so much as clarifies it.
Oh. I thought you were discounting his big season in terms of yards, not because of completion percentage. That does make more sense.But over the course of their careers, I'd imagine that Brady has thrown more to the RBs and Culpepper has thrown more often downfield. That should lead to Brady having an edge, but Culpepper has a sizeable edge in career completion percentage.
I guess it's a bit of "looking beyond the stats" -- A risky proposition to be sure. When I've watched Culpepper during his prime, I saw a lot of balls that were thrown up in "jump ball" situations where Moss bailed him out time and again. Not saying that Culpepper wasn't a great QB those years but my eyes told me that Randy Moss made his numbers look a lot better than they actually were because Moss was such a physical freak that C-Pep could be inaccurate and it wouldn't matter.Contrast with Brady and I see a QB who has absolutely made WR's BETTER than they were based on his accuracy: David Givens, David Patten, Deion Branch, Reche Caldwell -- these guys are mediocre WRs who have put up good seasons with the Pats based largely on Brady's talent.I honestly believe that Moss raised Culpepper up beyond his real talent level as a QB. Brady has NEVER had a guy like that in his whole career until now.
I don't disagree with any of this.
 
Chase: You are one of the few who realize that Moss is not a sure thing. I find it humorous that everyone goes crazy over his stat line for Week 1. Lets wait 4-5 more weeks and then make a determination on his value. I am in the corner of belief that the Pats will take advantage of mismatches all year. One week it's Moss, one week it's Maroney, one week Watson or Welker. One week it will be spread around. Moss will have the most receptions on the team but he is more a WR2 than a WR1 for fantasy. One thing is for sure, he will be covered better next week when he plays against San Diego. Nobody is bringing up the fact that the Jets pass D is HORRIBLE!!
I'm OK with this line of thought if you're saying that Moss will likely lead the team in receptions. It makes sense that Moss will be the guy who presents mismatches for the defense most often. I don't know which game you would expect Moss to be shut down by the opposing defense, so I think you have to assume that he'll get a greater share than most Patriots receivers. Not sure what you mean about the Chargers. They don't have great defensive backs either. The reason they're successful on pass defense is that they get great pressure from their front seven and can stop the run without committing a safety. That probably means fewer deep passes than today, as Brady will have less time to pass. I would look for Welker and Faulk to get more receptions, for Moss to get fewer YPR, and for Brady's passing numbers to take a significant dip from today's.
 
You really think Welker will end up with more receptions than Moss? Once again, I just don't think Welker is anywhere near as good.
Absolutely. I've been thinking Welker will lead the team in receptions since he became a Patriot and today's game made me even more convinced.J
 
My :(

I thought going in that Moss has probably lost half a step and I still feel that way. However, even without that extra gear he can still be very, very effective. He still has good if not great speed and with his leaping ability and height he is still as good (or better) as any receiver in the game at going up and snatching the ball. Yes, he will catch some deep balls, but his greatest contribution to this team will likely more often be shorter passes converting 3rd downs and in the red zone.

The only concern I have ever had with him since he arrived is his health, if he stays healthy he is going to be a fantastic weapon.

Edited to add that I also believe Welker will likely lead the team in receptions; Stallworth the highest YPC and Moss the most TDs.

 
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The revisionist history on Culpepper is fascinating. He didn't go to Hawaii three times because he found good deals on Expedia. Culpepper was an excellent QB in the early part of this decade, not just because he had Randy Moss on his team.
So its just a coincidence that Culpepper turned into a pumpkin once Moss left the Vikes (pre-injury)?
So it's just a coincidence that Culpepper was coached by Steve Loney when he turned into a pumpkin, having also lost OC Linehan? Is it a coincidence Loney hasn't had another OC job since that year? Was it a coincidence he didn't have all-pro center Birk? Also consider McCombs was selling and putting nothing at all into the team, and the hiring of Loney as OC, while retaining his OL duties is a great example. I just think you're not looking at 2005 in any depth at all. Culpepper played fine when he was without Moss in a significant part of 2004.
 
Chase: You are one of the few who realize that Moss is not a sure thing. I find it humorous that everyone goes crazy over his stat line for Week 1. Lets wait 4-5 more weeks and then make a determination on his value. I am in the corner of belief that the Pats will take advantage of mismatches all year. One week it's Moss, one week it's Maroney, one week Watson or Welker. One week it will be spread around. Moss will have the most receptions on the team but he is more a WR2 than a WR1 for fantasy. One thing is for sure, he will be covered better next week when he plays against San Diego. Nobody is bringing up the fact that the Jets pass D is HORRIBLE!!
I'm OK with this line of thought if you're saying that Moss will likely lead the team in receptions. It makes sense that Moss will be the guy who presents mismatches for the defense most often. I don't know which game you would expect Moss to be shut down by the opposing defense, so I think you have to assume that he'll get a greater share than most Patriots receivers. Not sure what you mean about the Chargers. They don't have great defensive backs either. The reason they're successful on pass defense is that they get great pressure from their front seven and can stop the run without committing a safety. That probably means fewer deep passes than today, as Brady will have less time to pass. I would look for Welker and Faulk to get more receptions, for Moss to get fewer YPR, and for Brady's passing numbers to take a significant dip from today's.
And I still expect Moss to see at least 7 targets: 3-4 downfield as the opp arises, and 3-4 situational targets (Moss is also awesome at getting you 4-6 yards for the first when you need it). Moss can make a lot of chicken salad out of that.
 
But I think all the "Wes Welker will lead the team" talk will rightfully be put to sleep after today.
Really, Chase?I'm still very much in the Welker will lead the team in receptions camp. Why are you not?J
If Moss and Stallworth are healthy, there aren't nearly enough receptions to go around. Welker is still the third WR on the team. Stallworth had a quiet day, but I expect Moss to have more receptions than Welker, and Stallworth to have more receiving yards. You really think Welker will end up with more receptions than Moss? Once again, I just don't think Welker is anywhere near as good.
Chase: You are one of the few who realize that Moss is not a sure thing. I find it humorous that everyone goes crazy over his stat line for Week 1. Lets wait 4-5 more weeks and then make a determination on his value. I am in the corner of belief that the Pats will take advantage of mismatches all year. One week it's Moss, one week it's Maroney, one week Watson or Welker. One week it will be spread around. Moss will have the most receptions on the team but he is more a WR2 than a WR1 for fantasy. One thing is for sure, he will be covered better next week when he plays against San Diego. Nobody is bringing up the fact that the Jets pass D is HORRIBLE!!
Hi johnny,I think tons of people think Moss is less than a sure thing. He was dropping like a rock in drafts everywhere. One game doesnt' change everything for him.Jet's defense is weak. And lots of WRs look fast outrunning a linebacker like Moss did on the TD. Next week will be a huge test. I see lots of that here.J
 
whoever leads this team in catches wont be significantly higher than the #2 guy...whoever that is. WRs 3 and 4 probably wont be far behind. We've seen this before. Welker will probably have less feast and famine games, and be a little more consitent week to week. Moss had 9 catches today. If he has 0 next week, then he'd be on target for 72 catches at the end of the year. Thats about where Id expect both Moss and Welker to be. But Id much rather have Moss' yardage, big plays and TDs.

 
But I think all the "Wes Welker will lead the team" talk will rightfully be put to sleep after today.
Really, Chase?I'm still very much in the Welker will lead the team in receptions camp. Why are you not?J
If Moss and Stallworth are healthy, there aren't nearly enough receptions to go around. Welker is still the third WR on the team. Stallworth had a quiet day, but I expect Moss to have more receptions than Welker, and Stallworth to have more receiving yards. You really think Welker will end up with more receptions than Moss? Once again, I just don't think Welker is anywhere near as good.
Chase: You are one of the few who realize that Moss is not a sure thing. I find it humorous that everyone goes crazy over his stat line for Week 1. Lets wait 4-5 more weeks and then make a determination on his value. I am in the corner of belief that the Pats will take advantage of mismatches all year. One week it's Moss, one week it's Maroney, one week Watson or Welker. One week it will be spread around. Moss will have the most receptions on the team but he is more a WR2 than a WR1 for fantasy. One thing is for sure, he will be covered better next week when he plays against San Diego. Nobody is bringing up the fact that the Jets pass D is HORRIBLE!!
Hi johnny,I think tons of people think Moss is less than a sure thing. He was dropping like a rock in drafts everywhere. One game doesnt' change everything for him.Jet's defense is weak. And lots of WRs look fast outrunning a linebacker like Moss did on the TD. Next week will be a huge test. I see lots of that here.J
It's too early to say this, but there's a good chance that the winner of the game tomorrow goes a long way towards determining where the AFCG is played. The loser will have two games to catch up, which won't be easy. Indy, Pitt and Denver all look great, but I think SD and NE are a bit ahead of the rest. I'd probably go NE 1, SD 2, IND 3 right now in the AFC. The Colts might be the best team when everyone's healthy, but I'm not sure they have the depth to win 13 or 14 games this year, which you'll need to get HFA.
 
Moss stats next week vs SD.

7 targets.

4 catches/35 yards.

I think the SD pressure will have Brady dumping off passes to Ben Watson and Wes Welker all day.

The Moss love will start to die down after next week......

 
Moss stats next week vs SD. 7 targets. 4 catches/35 yards. I think the SD pressure will have Brady dumping off passes to Ben Watson and Wes Welker all day. The Moss love will start to die down after next week......
And will be reignited when he plays the Dolphins twice, the Bills twice, and the Jets once again. Oh, and Cleveland too. Oh, and Cinci. Oh yeah, and the pitiful NYG secondary too.
 
The revisionist history on Culpepper is fascinating. He didn't go to Hawaii three times because he found good deals on Expedia. Culpepper was an excellent QB in the early part of this decade, not just because he had Randy Moss on his team.
So its just a coincidence that Culpepper turned into a pumpkin once Moss left the Vikes (pre-injury)?
Culpepper had only three or four bad games before his injury. It's tough to say.Or do you think Nate Burleson just made Culpepper look better than he was?
"Only 3 or 4 bad games", but he only played 6 full games that year. He was pretty horrible, Chase. It's hard to deny.
He only played 6 games because of injury. You asked why he stunk because of injury, and I'd guess because we didn't see him enough. Tomlinson today looked terrible, so did Jackson. Culpepper was pretty bad in 2005 (although he had two excellent games), but to be fair it's not easy to judge a QB on 3 or 4 bad games. He also threw for 363/4 in a game against the Packers when Moss was out in '04.
Chase I remember you and others ridiculing me when I dared to say that Culpepper wasn't a top 5 overall NFL QB. I told you then that Moss made him, and I think I've been proven right.
 
Moss stats next week vs SD. 7 targets. 4 catches/35 yards. I think the SD pressure will have Brady dumping off passes to Ben Watson and Wes Welker all day. The Moss love will start to die down after next week......
There isnt a doubt in my mind that San Diego will be the best D they face all year. So, its quite possible Moss will get shut down. But if you know the history of Randy Moss, you know that he has a history of lighting teams up in primetime games. next week's game is not only New England's home opener, so Moss' first in front of his new home crowd, but its also on Sunday night with the whole country watching. And Moss absoutely kills it in these games. So, if he delivers the kindof line youve predicted, Id be completely shocked. He's a great player. And great players step up in big games. Brady will get enough time on at least a few occasions to allow Moss to be great.
 
Moss stats next week vs SD. 7 targets. 4 catches/35 yards. I think the SD pressure will have Brady dumping off passes to Ben Watson and Wes Welker all day. The Moss love will start to die down after next week......
And will be reignited when he plays the Dolphins twice, the Bills twice, and the Jets once again. Oh, and Cleveland too. Oh, and Cinci. Oh yeah, and the pitiful NYG secondary too.
He won't be reignited for those matchups because his hamstring will be toast by week 5. And all the Moss owners will be WHINING.
 
Moss stats next week vs SD. 7 targets. 4 catches/35 yards. I think the SD pressure will have Brady dumping off passes to Ben Watson and Wes Welker all day. The Moss love will start to die down after next week......
And will be reignited when he plays the Dolphins twice, the Bills twice, and the Jets once again. Oh, and Cleveland too. Oh, and Cinci. Oh yeah, and the pitiful NYG secondary too.
He won't be reignited for those matchups because his hamstring will be toast by week 5. And all the Moss owners will be WHINING.
So now you can predict injuries? Doubt you'd be willing to back that claim up, though.......
 
Moss stats next week vs SD. 7 targets. 4 catches/35 yards. I think the SD pressure will have Brady dumping off passes to Ben Watson and Wes Welker all day. The Moss love will start to die down after next week......
And will be reignited when he plays the Dolphins twice, the Bills twice, and the Jets once again. Oh, and Cleveland too. Oh, and Cinci. Oh yeah, and the pitiful NYG secondary too.
He won't be reignited for those matchups because his hamstring will be toast by week 5. And all the Moss owners will be WHINING.
So now you can predict injuries? Doubt you'd be willing to back that claim up, though.......
It's not hard to predict an injury to a 30+ year old WR who has a long track record of injuries. He does have a nice schedule after San Diego. But he won't be able to stay healthy for a full 16.
 
Moss showed that "missing" gear on that long td pass with the three defenders on his tail. Once he knew where the ball was headed he went from coasting to another gear and quickly got separation. Not as fast as he was but plenty fast.

 
Moss stats next week vs SD.

7 targets.

4 catches/35 yards.

I think the SD pressure will have Brady dumping off passes to Ben Watson and Wes Welker all day.

The Moss love will start to die down after next week......
And will be reignited when he plays the Dolphins twice, the Bills twice, and the Jets once again. Oh, and Cleveland too. Oh, and Cinci. Oh yeah, and the pitiful NYG secondary too.
He won't be reignited for those matchups because his hamstring will be toast by week 5. And all the Moss owners will be WHINING.
So now you can predict injuries? Doubt you'd be willing to back that claim up, though.......
It's not hard to predict an injury to a 30+ year old WR who has a long track record of injuries. He does have a nice schedule after San Diego. But he won't be able to stay healthy for a full 16.
Like I said, you willing to back up he'll be out by week 5?
 
Well, Brady is going to spread it around so Moss won't be good. Right. Nice try. Good one guys. Maybe NE will cut Moss or put him on IR since he didn't play in the pre-season.

What a shock that he sucked in Oakland last year because it was Oakland, and not because Moss sucks. Moss with a great QB = awesome, and I'm just pissed that I didn't get him in more leagues.

 
Few notes and speculation on my part:

Pats will always exploit the mismatches - until the other team adjusts - which create other mismatches (thus, FFpts for other players);
Pats offense will always be able to create mismatches in '07... Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Maroney, Watson, etc. - defend that;
Belichik is one of the rare coaches that don't care to be 'cute' with his team... he will attack the other team glarant weakness all day long - he doesn't care if his RBs get only 5 touches;
Moss is the first WR Brady/Belichik have in their teinure that can cause strong mismatches with his freakish abilities;
Moss is saying/doing the right thing presently (Pats way of doing thing, best coach, greatest QB he had, etc.);... All these lead me to believe that Randy will have montrous weeks like yesterday (if the other team can't adjust of just can't cover him and Brady has all day to find the open guy) - or will be used has a wonderful decoy if Belichik wants to exploit other weaknesses...

That being said, I don't know how will Randy react when he's not the one being showcased and moreso when the Pats will lose one (or a few) doing so... has he changed? Can the 'Pats way' be his cure?... we'll see... If he has changed and wants a ring more than being the center of the universe - it'll be a good marriage... if not, it could get ugly...

 
But I think all the "Wes Welker will lead the team" talk will rightfully be put to sleep after today.
Really, Chase?I'm still very much in the Welker will lead the team in receptions camp. Why are you not?

J
Heck, Wes Welker isn't even in the Wes Welker camp! lol :confused: http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=270717

GOLDBERG ON FOOTBALL:

Randy Moss looks brilliant again

Posted: September 9, 2007

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) -- Even Randy Moss didn't know if he'd ever be Randy Moss again. Wes Welker, on the other hand, wasn't worried. "I kept getting calls all week from people who told me they were going to pick me up on their fantasy teams. I told them 'Forget about me, Take Randy,'" said Welker, another new part of New England's rebuilt receiving corps.

 
You really think Welker will end up with more receptions than Moss? Once again, I just don't think Welker is anywhere near as good.
Absolutely. I've been thinking Welker will lead the team in receptions since he became a Patriot and today's game made me even more convinced.J
Welker had his moments yesterday, but those drops right in the numbers don't concern you?
Sure, you hope your guy catches everything. The one for the 1st down that should have been was him trying to run before the catch. But as long as Brady is confident in him, I am. And it sure looked to me like Brady remains confident in him. He had the two incompletions and then finished catching the last three Brady threw to him I think. Guy gets open and makes catches. I like him a lot.J
 
But I think all the "Wes Welker will lead the team" talk will rightfully be put to sleep after today.
Really, Chase?I'm still very much in the Welker will lead the team in receptions camp. Why are you not?

J
Heck, Wes Welker isn't even in the Wes Welker camp! lol :thumbup: http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=270717

GOLDBERG ON FOOTBALL:

Randy Moss looks brilliant again

Posted: September 9, 2007

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) -- Even Randy Moss didn't know if he'd ever be Randy Moss again. Wes Welker, on the other hand, wasn't worried. "I kept getting calls all week from people who told me they were going to pick me up on their fantasy teams. I told them 'Forget about me, Take Randy,'" said Welker, another new part of New England's rebuilt receiving corps.
That's all part of his shtick. :mellow: And for sure, I'd take Moss over Welker too. I'm just talking about number of receptions.

J

 
You really think Welker will end up with more receptions than Moss? Once again, I just don't think Welker is anywhere near as good.
Absolutely. I've been thinking Welker will lead the team in receptions since he became a Patriot and today's game made me even more convinced.J
Welker had his moments yesterday, but those drops right in the numbers don't concern you?
Sure, you hope your guy catches everything. The one for the 1st down that should have been was him trying to run before the catch. But as long as Brady is confident in him, I am. And it sure looked to me like Brady remains confident in him. He had the two incompletions and then finished catching the last three Brady threw to him I think. Guy gets open and makes catches. I like him a lot.J
Joe, if you were Brady wouldn't you target Moss more than anyone else? Guy is pretty fricken good.
 
But Id much rather have Moss' yardage, big plays and TDs.
For sure. I think Welker will lead in receptions but Moss will score more FF points.J
question on these 2 Joe. At season's end, based on their ADP, who would you deem as having the better fantasy 'value'? I havent really kept up on where theyve each been drafted.
I know you asked Joe, but, IMO, BOTH will have great fantasy value. Welker will be the greater value in PPR leagues simply because he will be able to climb higher than Moss could have climbed. Moss would have to climb into the top-5 to exceed Welker's likely climb in value in PPR leagues.In non-PPR leagues, Moss' TDs and yardage will have a lot more value than Welker's numbers, esp. in leagues that reward either longer TDs or 100+ receiving games. I have Welker in a PPR/retur n yardage league, and I expect him to well exceed his ADP in that league. Moss went kind of high, so, in that league, he will have a tough road to hoe to exceed Welker's' value.
 
You really think Welker will end up with more receptions than Moss? Once again, I just don't think Welker is anywhere near as good.
Absolutely. I've been thinking Welker will lead the team in receptions since he became a Patriot and today's game made me even more convinced.J
Welker had his moments yesterday, but those drops right in the numbers don't concern you?
Sure, you hope your guy catches everything. The one for the 1st down that should have been was him trying to run before the catch. But as long as Brady is confident in him, I am. And it sure looked to me like Brady remains confident in him. He had the two incompletions and then finished catching the last three Brady threw to him I think. Guy gets open and makes catches. I like him a lot.J
Joe, if you were Brady wouldn't you target Moss more than anyone else? Guy is pretty fricken good.
Hi Scott,To be clear. I love Moss. I loved him in Oakland and I loved him the day he was traded to New England. So this isn't a down on Moss thing for me. I just think Welker will catch a ton of passes. And I think Moss will catch about 90% of whatever a ton of passes (which should be for a lot more yards and TDs given their games)J
 
just to answer the OP:

Moss looked like the best receiver Brady has ever had to throw to.

Moss also looked like he is a step slower than he was in his prime, but Randy Moss at 90% of his freakish prime is still pretty darn good.

As for Welker:

he's gonna' get catches, all the short, dink&dunk stuff.

Brady's strength is still the quick read and the quick, short pass. Welker's perfect for that.

my only concern for him is that doing all that tough "blue collar" work (including return work) can take its toll (as it has on many NE WRs).

 
I don't think Tom Brady is a significantly better regular season QB than Daunte Culpepper was. Brady has never had a season like Culpepper had in 2000, 2003 or 2004. Now if Brady goes out and throws 40 TDs against 11 INTs, then I guess he'll be a better regular season QB than Culpepper was. But I don't think any of us expect that to happen this year.
Speak for yourself...
 
I don't think Tom Brady is a significantly better regular season QB than Daunte Culpepper was. Brady has never had a season like Culpepper had in 2000, 2003 or 2004. Now if Brady goes out and throws 40 TDs against 11 INTs, then I guess he'll be a better regular season QB than Culpepper was. But I don't think any of us expect that to happen this year.
How's 50 TD's & 8 INT's?
 
Chase has long since eaten crow on this one, in fact, he posted several detailed analyses of Brady and his place in history over at the PFR blog in recent weeks.

 

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