How do you know when to sell high? (1 Viewer)

[AnonymousBob]

How does everyone determine when they should sell a guy once the season starts?

I've been offered Steven Jackson for Michael Turner...a week ago I would've taken this deal and run for the hills. Now? I'm not entirely sure that would be a smart move.

But let's keep things more vague rather than focus on my individual scenario. Sometimes a player will flop despite receiving a large number of touches (Barlow). More often than not, we rank guys as top players for a reason...

Would you sell Holt for Cotchery after one game? Colston? Braylon? Do you dump SJax for Turner? LBJ?

How does everybody know when to start tossing out preseason rankings?

 

[KellysHeroes]

belongs in the AC

I would hold of SJax for one more game if you can.... Gun to my head and I would Take Turner.

Cotch passed Holt when Farve landed in NYJ.

 

[[scooter]]

I think SJax is going to have a solid year (1200 yards, 10 TDs). But I don't think he'll have a 200-yard game.

I think Turner is capable of another 200 yarder.

 

[rockalum]

How does everyone determine when they should sell a guy once the season starts?

I've been offered Steven Jackson for Michael Turner...a week ago I would've taken this deal and run for the hills. Now? I'm not entirely sure that would be a smart move.

But let's keep things more vague rather than focus on my individual scenario. Sometimes a player will flop despite receiving a large number of touches (Barlow). More often than not, we rank guys as top players for a reason...

Would you sell Holt for Cotchery after one game? Colston? Braylon? Do you dump SJax for Turner? LBJ?

How does everybody know when to start tossing out preseason rankings?

This may seem like an obvious statement, but when they stop making ssense. If you can get those guys foir Holt, I'd do it. I can't give him away. I think he's turning into the isaac bruce portion of his career and the OL still isn't any good. I would trade Turner for Jackson, but not the other way around. And even then I would have to give it a lot of thought. This week's game against TB is going to be very interesting.

 

[comfortably numb]

I consider it by sticking to your guns.

if you came into the season with Sjax rated quite higher than Turner, and nothing MAJOR happened to Sjax situation then you do this deal.

I think alot of the second guessing is natural.

You see your player on a down week, another player on a up week. You think maybe it continues, but you have to stick to your raankings barring any major issues with said players team/situation.

For example, you had MJD rated at #5, he loses 2 Olinemen, it's not crazy to think he is now #12-15.

But if you slid him down that far based on a poor game, i think that would be shortsighted.

The opposite, I hold for selling high.

Say you nabbed Turner (your number 20RB) in the 4th just cause you figured he was the last of the starting RB's, and you were not thrilled about it.

he now blows up against DET, if you can upgrade him to someone you have in the 6-12 range, i say you do to it considering what he did was against DET, and that 1 game really should not alter your ranking all that much.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I have Turner & Norwood in one league, I wonder what I can get for them.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think you know when to sell high when you have a solid opinion on a player and he outperforms your expectations and you don't think he'll do that well again anytime soon.

Sell high........an example would be Michael Pittman. 2 Td's in week 1.....get what you can for him as Denver as a bunch of RB and a solid passing game, plus Pittman gets hurt, every season.

Buy low..Colston. You know the guy is good and he's on a team where they pass for 300 yards a week it seems. Just a matter of time.

In terms of when do you throw out your preseason rankings.....I think in Week 1. Let me rephrase that, you tweak it. You have your list and then just like you do all preseason long, now after week 1 you tweak. Some rankings may move more than others, but don't get caught up in going crazy overboard.

You mention Michael Turner versus Stephen Jax. Let's take a closer look at those two:

Stephen Jackson came into camp very late off the hold out. We knew that going into the game plus he's playing on the road versus a tough Philly team that jumped out on top early on them.

Michael Turner- He's looked good in preseason and went against probably a bottom 5 defense. A RB on his team actually went for close to 100 yards and a TD, so as great as Turner did, it wasn't just he who was spectacular, it was more a product of how bad Detroit was.

So bottom line for me, although I would move Michael Turner up my overall list, I would not move him up past Stephen Jackson for the reasons I mentioned.

 

[loose circuits]

belongs in the AC

I think you need to re-read his post. He's asking about a theory of when to toss out your preseason rankings and go with actual performance this year. He said to forget about his personal scenario. Although Mike Turner is the ultimate sell high candidateAnyways, back on track...You have to be very careful about not jumping too much in the rankings. Turner looked outstanding, but keep in mind it was the Lions. I am having the same problem of not over valuing him. That is a great example. On the other hand, the Rams can't possibly be worse. I think both play on equally bad offenses, but Jackson is the better candidate for catches.As far as Braylon and Colston...those guys are fine. I'd probably wait a while before I jump ship for lower value. I mean if you can get a breakout candidate that is living up to the bill, like Calvin Johnson it is tempting. However, I think that would still be trading for the sake of trading.Look back at the Holmes v Calvin stuff I read on this forum. I wonder if those Holmes backers would jump ship now. Would be interesting if somebody bumped that thread, but the 1st thing the Holmes' fans would say is it's one week dude. So that's why I will refrain from trading, it's one week...Colston broke out in the 2nd half last year, didn't he? Some were thinking sophomore slump...Chad Johnson has been known to punish impatient owners...I would have sold Holt for Cotchery as soon as Favre arrived in New York

 

[Ozymandias]

You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,

Know when to walk away and know when to run.

Now every FBG knows that the secret to survivin

Is knowin what to throw away and knowing what to keep.

There'll be time enough for counti'n, when the season's done.

 

[AnonymousBob]

belongs in the AC

I do have Turner and I'm thinking about trading him away for SJax but the other guys were just names I tossed out there to give various examples. I didn't mean for this to turn into should I or shouldn't I make the deal (thankfully it hasn't gone in that direction) but rather when to start ignoring preseason rankings and when to only deal with the regular season.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

...when to start ignoring preseason rankings and when to only deal with the regular season.

For me, I think the time to buy into performance comes at some point after Week 2's games -- but definitely not after Week 1. And I think the level of player factors into the consideration as well.Granted, there is a lot of reward in proactively hopping aboard early performance after Week 1. I think most sharks see guys like Eddie Royal, Fasano, Chris Johnson, and the like as not just guys who took advantage of the game situation and opportunity, but of something indicative of greater value that will be "sticky" -- these guys are likely to hold value and continue to perform even if situations "normalize" (i.e. Marshall returns; Miami is able to balance a run/pass attack when Chad finds rapport with his receivers and Ronnie Brown is able to handle the workload; more even distribution between Johnson and White to keep them both healthy). These are the guys I might avoid selling high because they seem to not just take advantage of the opportunity given to them, but have the ability to hold on to.But if we are talking about the upper echelon of players -- players we all had generally ranked in the top 10 at their position -- I think the considerations are slightly different. As you said yourself, there is a reason these guys were the concensus ranked top 10. Take SJax -- we all knew St. Louis was going to be shaky overall, that their o-line was going to have problems, and that he held out most of the preseason. That still wasn't enough to knock him out of the top 5 in most people's estimation going into the season. SJax is the type of player that does well despite the absence of any support -- and we've seen this in years' past. He's a very good buy low right now.Now let's look at Turner -- absolutely no slouch, and we knew he was going to be a top 20 back, if not Top 15. One monster game and he looks -- deservedly so -- like a world beater. But are you prepared to say he's a top 5 back after just this one game? Are you prepared to really say that at year's end, on the team he is on, that he will be better than the concensus top 5? Bottom line, after week one is a great time to sell high, as things to tend to normalize. If you are looking to buy, and want to mitigate the risk, you are better off waiting another week. One week's performance can be an anomaly; two weeks' worth of performance is the start of a trend.

 

[davearm]

An analysis of historical data by one of the staffers here yielded a quantified answer to this very question. Pretty interesting stuff, I'll see if I can find it.

Anyway, the short answer is that after week 1, the expectation going forward should be weighted something like 0.90-0.95 preseason projection, and 0.10-0.05 week 1 production.

Basically, you shouldn't be making major adjustments after one week.

 

[awesomeness]

How does everyone determine when they should sell a guy once the season starts?

I've been offered Steven Jackson for Michael Turner...a week ago I would've taken this deal and run for the hills. Now? I'm not entirely sure that would be a smart move.

But let's keep things more vague rather than focus on my individual scenario. Sometimes a player will flop despite receiving a large number of touches (Barlow). More often than not, we rank guys as top players for a reason...

Would you sell Holt for Cotchery after one game? Colston? Braylon? Do you dump SJax for Turner? LBJ?

How does everybody know when to start tossing out preseason rankings?

When something like this happens, you do the deal and laugh at your good fortune.

 

[cubbie5150]

A different way of asking the question: when should owners quit considering draft position of players? I swear, every year I'm in a redraft league where some owners will hold tight to draft position when it comes to trades, as late as midway through the season--e.g., "No way can I do that deal. I drafted Player A in the 2nd Rd; the player you're offering was drafted in the 8th Rd." Idiots...

 

[sterjs]

Jackson for Turner? I take that deal before the guy changes his mind. No way have I seen enough to put Turner over the 4th best RB in the league.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Jackson for Turner? I take that deal before the guy changes his mind. No way have I seen enough to put Turner over the 4th best RB in the league.

I agree here, but understand why it would be tough to pull the trigger. I have two examples of similar situations over the last few years. I was completely sure Carnell Williams was the next LT after week one of his rookie year. I ended up trading LT for Caddy and Willie Parker. As it turned out, that trade cost me a championship.Last year, i was even higher on AD than i was Caddy after week 1, and offered SJax for AD and a 1st rookie pick. He countered with AD and a 2nd for SJax. I quicky had flashbacks of trading LT, and declined. I guess the point is, do the opposite of what i would do, and i would probably take SJax for Turner.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Bump for the day crowd.

 

[KellysHeroes]

You should put Turner in the Title or sub Title... that might pull in some more posts.

I'm in the same boat as you, not sure if I should field offers now or wait. Most Managers feel that MT's performance was more of how bad Det is than how talented Turner is... one thing that bothered me about Turner was that Norwood was able to shread the Lions up as well.. and that is a big Con against Turner

A Pro for Turner is that he had a decent Pre-season (18 for 169 / 9.4) and he brought that right into week 1. I expect a big work load for him this yr inorder to keep pressure off Ryan... as long as the score is close, The Falcons will be Run 1st.

Check this video... not only did Turner look amazing, but so did the LINE.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDf1ZON9FOg...feature=related

Personally, I put the message out there to my league that I would trade him... only because I have 2 Starters in Bush & MBIII while I'm hurting at WR badly. But I'm not going to trade him for just anyone... theres only about 20 or so players I would accept for him.

If Turner does well again... his value will be crazy high; if the Falons flatter, Turner's value will be right back to where it was before week 1.

 

[sterjs]

Jackson for Turner? I take that deal before the guy changes his mind. No way have I seen enough to put Turner over the 4th best RB in the league.

I agree here, but understand why it would be tough to pull the trigger. I have two examples of similar situations over the last few years. I was completely sure Carnell Williams was the next LT after week one of his rookie year. I ended up trading LT for Caddy and Willie Parker. As it turned out, that trade cost me a championship.Last year, i was even higher on AD than i was Caddy after week 1, and offered SJax for AD and a 1st rookie pick. He countered with AD and a 2nd for SJax. I quicky had flashbacks of trading LT, and declined. I guess the point is, do the opposite of what i would do, and i would probably take SJax for Turner.

If you would have stood pat (not bought high) in both instances then you would be much better off. Sure, Adrian Peterson+2nd > Jackson, but it wasn't a catastrophic mistake. LT for Parker+Caddy was cataclysmic.

 

[AnonymousBob]

You should put Turner in the Title or sub Title... that might pull in some more posts.

The point of this thread isn't whether I should or shouldn't make the Turner deal...I threw that in there just as an example. I was asking the Shark Pool when they started tossing out preseason rankings. Gradual or all at once? And so on and so forth.

 

[Banger]

I would definitely sell Turner for a deal like that...it was one game vs. probably the worst defense in the league

 

[Burning Sensation]

You should put Turner in the Title or sub Title... that might pull in some more posts.

The point of this thread isn't whether I should or shouldn't make the Turner deal...I threw that in there just as an example. I was asking the Shark Pool when they started tossing out preseason rankings. Gradual or all at once? And so on and so forth.

Problem is there is no answer for this. Every situation is different. There are times to take advantage of a geat week 1. I have watched the Colts/Bears game three times, and each time i am more impressed with Forte, the guy has amazing feet, and sneaky speed. Not too mention very good vision, and runs with good power and balance as well. The best part of his game thogh seems to be instinct, it almost seemed he knew what the defender was going to do a half second before he did it. Not trying to turn this into a Forte thread, but the point being is really watching a player, and then being right about him is the only way to know if he is a one week wonder or the real deal.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I would definitely sell Turner for a deal like that...it was one game vs. probably the worst defense in the league

Turner should get a nice workload against TB... I think u should hold.

 

[Banger]

I would definitely sell Turner for a deal like that...it was one game vs. probably the worst defense in the league

Turner should get a nice workload against TB... I think u should hold.

I don't own him. If I did I would do it in a heartbeat.