How do you pick Kickers? (1 Viewer)

[bigreese82]

I would guess that a top kicker would have to be on a high scoring team

A top Kicker would be playing in favorable conditions"weather"

but I know these are not the characteristics of a top 10 kicker

What are they

 

[belljr]

Domes

 

[WhoDat]

I look for a kicker on a team that plays grind it out football; with a decent to great defense; will have good to great starting field position (towards mid field) most games and controls clock. There are very few 80 yard drives over the course of the season. There are plenty of 30 yard drives that end in a FG attempt.

(Think Kasay)

Or

A kicker on a bad team that could not score from the 1 if they took the defensive off the field and let them run the play against an empty field. (Think Rackers)

 

[Mike Herman]

The majority of top ten kickers come from teams with strong offenses. The most consistent example is Elam, who has been top ten in 12 of his 13 years in the league, including 8 top fives.

Each year there are one or two from mediocre offenses that reach field goal range often but not any further. The problem is predicting which team that will be in a given year... except for the Ravens which is why Stover has been top ten in 6 of the last 7 years.

 

[Dancing Bear]

The answer to this is highly dependent upon the nature of the scoring in your league.

The standard scoring of 1 pt for an Extra Point and 3 pts for a Field Goal would mean that you want a team that stalls in the Red Zone like Arizona last year.

It takes a lot of Extra Points in a standard scoring format to make up for a Field Goal. Last year Neil Rackers and Jay Feely were heads and tails above the rest of the pack because of their respective teams inability to put it into the End Zone ...

I play in a league which gives 3 pts for either an Extra Point or a Field Goal and -3 points for any miss. This gives equal weighting to the performance of the kicker irrespective of the Offense's ability to score a TD. In this case, then you can pick a kicker who plays on a team that scores TD's and still get reasonable points.

 

[ExaltedOne]

Dome + good offense + accuracy = top 10 kicker

Adam Vinatieri = money

Sebastian Janikowski = doodoo

 

[zamboni]

It's so hard to predict which kickers will be finish at or near the top, so I just try to find an accurate one. Or at least one who's been accurate historically. The rest is often just luck.

Sure, you can pick a great offense, but if the team is very effective in the red zone, that reduces the number of FG opps.

Too many moving parts outside of accuracy IMHO.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Seabass was absolute $ in 2002 [the same with Morten Anderson at KC] in my league when Gannon and Co. set the league on fire!

Like I said, it depends upon the scoring system ...

 

[Foosball God]

Consistent kicker on a mediocre offense in a dome is the best, IMO, because they'll get a lot of FG attempts.

 

[Musesboy]

These comments are based on 3 pts for 1-39 yards, 4 pts for 40-49 yards and 6pts for 50+ yards. No penalties for misses and 1pt for XPs...

Looking at the teams that scored the most points last year, seven of the top eight teams produced a kicker that finished in the top ten in fantasy points (Kaeding was the exception in 14th).

If you consider teams that had the most offensive yardage, eight of the top nine produced a kicker that finished in the top ten in fantasy scoring (Vinatieri was the exception in 25th).

Rackers made 40/42 attempts with six over 50 yards to finish first. The Cardinals were 17th in points scored and 8th in yardage gained.

Rackers made 95.2 % of his kicks last year, but his career average is only 76.7 %.

Seattle and Indy were the top two teams in points scored, but each attempted just 25 FGs. Josh Brown missed seven of those, and Vanderjagt two.

It seems if you can predict the teams that will score the most points and/or gain the most yardage, you have a good shot at getting a top kicker. Factor in the weather and consider whether teams allow their kicker to attempt 50 yarders, and you are even closer to getting the right guy.

 

[Couch Potato]

As a general rule, I avoid paraplegics and guys with just one leg.

Toes are optional though... TOM DEMPSEY

 

[AB in DC]

Good defenses are the key, imho. More drives per game = more scoring opportunities.

 

[Keepers]

Domes

When you lose points for missed field goals.

 

[mbuehner]

By height.

 

[Baracuda]

Another way to go is to draft the kicker that is on the same team as your QB to smooth out variability and as a hedge if your QB has an off week. Bass N' Brew brought this up a while ago in the Cutting Edge thread and I think it has merit, provided that the kicker you're selecting isn't horrible. I like the idea and will use it this year because after a few certain guys, I really don't care which kicker I have.

 

[mbuehner]

Another way to go is to draft the kicker that is on the same team as your QB to smooth out variability and as a hedge if your QB has an off week

Hmm, thats an interesting take, but i can see a few dangers. I suppose it would work well with the elite offenses, but i wouldnt risk it with so-so teams because you could easily end up with a team like (to pick a name) the Giants just having an off game and not scoring many points for either guy. What if the wind is swirling for instance?

 

[Baracuda]

Another way to go is to draft the kicker that is on the same team as your QB to smooth out variability and as a hedge if your QB has an off week

Hmm, thats an interesting take, but i can see a few dangers. I suppose it would work well with the elite offenses, but i wouldnt risk it with so-so teams because you could easily end up with a team like (to pick a name) the Giants just having an off game and not scoring many points for either guy. What if the wind is swirling for instance?

True. But there are also those defensive struggle games where an offense gets no TDs, but 3-4 FGs. You're probably right though, this strategy should only be used if you have a QB in a good offense. I guess it could be a tiebreaker though if deciding between a couple of kickers.

 

[Musesboy]

Another way to go is to draft the kicker that is on the same team as your QB to smooth out variability and as a hedge if your QB has an off week.  Bass N' Brew brought this up a while ago in the Cutting Edge thread and I think it has merit, provided that the kicker you're selecting isn't horrible.  I like the idea and will use it this year because after a few certain guys, I really don't care which kicker I have.

I like this kind of thinking too. But I prefer to link a featured back that gets goal line carries rather than the QB. If you are inside the 10, guys like Johnson, Alexander, Tomlinson, and Rudi have a good chance of pounding the ball in. If they fail, you get 3 points from the kicker. If the team prefers to pass in goal line situations, the QB is a better choice. This strategy seems particularly sensible in survivor leagues.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I wait until the last round of my draft then pick one. I usually end up droping him for a kicker who starts off the season hot and go from there.

 

[zamboni]

I wait until the last round of my draft then pick one. I usually end up droping him for a kicker who starts off the season hot and go from there.

Exactly. I almost invariably wait to be the last team to select a kicker.

 

[videoguy505]

I wait until the last round of my draft then pick one. I usually end up droping him for a kicker who starts off the season hot and go from there.

Something to be said for this. I think there's an old article on here that said top-10 turnover is so high and it's so hard to predict where someone will come from that it's a crapshoot anyway. So pick a guy who's first 2-4 games are in domes, then see who's hot on the WW. Rackers was still available after week 3 in all the leagues I was in.

 

[Sinrman]

Consistent kicker on a mediocre offense in a dome is the best, IMO, because they'll get a lot of FG attempts.

Not many out there, but this would be the ideal kicker for me...

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Well one thing that's consistent amongst top kickers is that more often than not, they were not a top kicker the year before.

I did a study a few years back, and up to that point (and with how kickers have worked out the last few years, it only continues the trend) a top 5 kicker was more likely to finish outside the top 20 then he was to finish in the top 5 again. Which means that most of those top 5/10 kickers are coming from outside of that area the year before.

For good kicker value I'd look for a guy kicking in a dome or on a team that doesn't have a good goalline RB that wasn't near the top 10 the year before.

Jason Hanson seems to fit that bill this year, and to a lesser extent John Carney. Both are in new coaching situations as well so they could turn things around.

 

[mlball77]

The majority of top ten kickers come from teams with strong offenses. The most consistent example is Elam, who has been top ten in 12 of his 13 years in the league, including 8 top fives.

Each year there are one or two from mediocre offenses that reach field goal range often but not any further. The problem is predicting which team that will be in a given year... except for the Ravens which is why Stover has been top ten in 6 of the last 7 years.

 

[SSOG]

How do you spot a top-10 kicker? His name is Jason Elam. Everyone else is a crapshoot.

Historically, Stover/Akers/Longwell have all been good gambles who finish in the top 10 far more than they don't. Beyond those 4, though, kickers are so all-over-the-map from year to year that they're almost impossible to project (and even with those 4- odds are that one of them is missing the top 10 this year).

I don't try to overanalyze it and get the "perfect" offense- one that moves the ball, but sucks in the red zone. If I can't get Elam, I just grab the kicker from the best offense left on the board. It's a lot more uncommon for an offense to be "too good" to produce good kicker value than it is for an offense to be "too mediocre" to produce good kicker value.

 

[Mike Herman]

How do you spot a top-10 kicker? His name is Jason Elam. Everyone else is a crapshoot.

Historically, Stover/Akers/Longwell have all been good gambles who finish in the top 10 far more than they don't.

I'd add whoever is kicking for Indianapolis to that list also. For those who've been living under a rock, that used to be Vanderjagt, but is now Vinatieri.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

How do you spot a top-10 kicker? His name is Jason Elam. Everyone else is a crapshoot.

Historically, Stover/Akers/Longwell have all been good gambles who finish in the top 10 far more than they don't.

I'd add whoever is kicking for Indianapolis to that list also. For those who've been living under a rock, that used to be Vanderjagt, but is now Vinatieri.

I believe Vanderjagt has only finished top 5 twice in eight years. The year after he was the #1 kicker, he was the #17 kicker, and scored only two more points than that #17 finish this past year.

 

[bostonfred]

Good passing offense, weak running game. I want a team that can get yards in gulps, but can't pull the trigger. Ideally a mediocre defense or one that gets a lot of turnovers.

 

[SSOG]

How do you spot a top-10 kicker? His name is Jason Elam. Everyone else is a crapshoot.

Historically, Stover/Akers/Longwell have all been good gambles who finish in the top 10 far more than they don't.

I'd add whoever is kicking for Indianapolis to that list also. For those who've been living under a rock, that used to be Vanderjagt, but is now Vinatieri.

I believe Vanderjagt has only finished top 5 twice in eight years. The year after he was the #1 kicker, he was the #17 kicker, and scored only two more points than that #17 finish this past year.

 

[Mike Herman]

How do you spot a top-10 kicker? His name is Jason Elam. Everyone else is a crapshoot.

Historically, Stover/Akers/Longwell have all been good gambles who finish in the top 10 far more than they don't.

I'd add whoever is kicking for Indianapolis to that list also. For those who've been living under a rock, that used to be Vanderjagt, but is now Vinatieri.

I believe Vanderjagt has only finished top 5 twice in eight years. The year after he was the #1 kicker, he was the #17 kicker, and scored only two more points than that #17 finish this past year.

The Colts finished in the top six in kicker scoring in six of the last seven years:5th 2005

3rd 2004

2nd 2003 (this was Vanderjagt's "perfect" year, but Wilkins actually had more points)

19th 2002

2nd 2001

6th 2000

1st 1999

 

[SSOG]

How do you spot a top-10 kicker? His name is Jason Elam. Everyone else is a crapshoot.

Historically, Stover/Akers/Longwell have all been good gambles who finish in the top 10 far more than they don't.

I'd add whoever is kicking for Indianapolis to that list also. For those who've been living under a rock, that used to be Vanderjagt, but is now Vinatieri.

I believe Vanderjagt has only finished top 5 twice in eight years. The year after he was the #1 kicker, he was the #17 kicker, and scored only two more points than that #17 finish this past year.

The Colts finished in the top six in kicker scoring in six of the last seven years:5th 2005

3rd 2004

2nd 2003 (this was Vanderjagt's "perfect" year, but Wilkins actually had more points)

19th 2002

2nd 2001

6th 2000

1st 1999

That's funny, and here I thought Vanderjagt only finished in the top 6 in scoring in two of the last five seasons:9th 2005

7th 2004

2nd 2003

17th 2002

2nd 2001

I dunno what scoring system you're using, but those numbers are taken directly from the FBG player page.

Yes, Vanderjagt has been a very good bet recently, and I have no problem including him with Akers, Longwell, and Stover, whose production is, I feel, very dependent on how good their offense is. Elam's a class of his own, though. Whether the Broncos are fantastic or terrible, he's good for a top-10 finish (I think we're at 10 straight top-10 finishes and counting).

 

[Ozymandias]

Rackers was simply unbelievable last year. The reason appears to be that Arizona was a one dimensional offense that broke down in the red zone. With the addition of Edge, that may not be as true this coming year.

I wonder whether the opposite may be true for Indy. The Colts may be a less effective running machine, and the odds are that Vinatieri could have a good year. I notice that FBG's have him ranked first.

 

[cstu]

Rackers was simply unbelievable last year. The reason appears to be that Arizona was a one dimensional offense that broke down in the red zone. With the addition of Edge, that may not be as true this coming year.

I wonder whether the opposite may be true for Indy. The Colts may be a less effective running machine, and the odds are that Vinatieri could have a good year. I notice that FBG's have him ranked first.

Vinitieri seems to have hit the trifecta - dome, good offense, and lack of a great short yardage RB.

 

[Bri]

Rackers was simply unbelievable last year. The reason appears to be that Arizona was a one dimensional offense that broke down in the red zone. With the addition of Edge, that may not be as true this coming year.

I wonder whether the opposite may be true for Indy. The Colts may be a less effective running machine, and the odds are that Vinatieri could have a good year. I notice that FBG's have him ranked first.

In the little I've seen him, Mungro's seemed good around the goalline. Could he be their goalline back?

 

[Wingnut]

Rackers hit 92%+ last year, and now he kicks in a new dome. The offense should be better, alloqing him less chances, but his accuracy should be sky high again.

I usually try to get a top 10 kicker based on my rankings, but Ill usually wait till 6-8 are off the board before I grab one. We carry 2 kickers, so I wait till the last round to grab my last one.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I'm gonna throw out a different approach to drafting kickers. Use the WW each week and play matchups, kinda like some people use with defenses. But how can you tell which teams you want your kicker to be facing? I'm glad you asked, because I've got that answer. Ideally, I want my kicker to play in a dome, but if not, I want him in nice weather (not too windy, rainy, snowy, etc.). The dome part is easy to figure out, and the weather part is available on the internet. OK, now back to who I want my kicker to be facing. Last year, if you count 1pt for EP's and 3 pts for FG's, here are the 5 teams that gave up the most points:

OAK - 139

NO - 136

HOU - 131

SF - 130

STL - 127

NYJ - 127 (tied for 5th)

And here are the 5 teams that gave up the least points to opposing kickers:

DEN - 72

IND - 81

CHI - 82

JAC - 89

CAR - 91

(KC, SD, WAS, PIT, and NYG were the only other teams under 100)

If you look at the teams above, you will see that the teams with pourous run defenses gave up the most to kickers. All of them finished in the bottom 8 of the league (except for SF, who came in 18th).

And if you look at the teams that gave up the least points, they are the teams with good run defenses. All 10 listed were in the top half of rush defenses.

So, when picking a kicker each week, find one who plays in a dome (or in favorable weather), against a pourous run defense.

My kicker for week 1 will be ... Nate Kaeding vs OAK

 

[Mike Herman]

I'm gonna throw out a different approach to drafting kickers. Use the WW each week and play matchups, kinda like some people use with defenses. But how can you tell which teams you want your kicker to be facing? I'm glad you asked, because I've got that answer. Ideally, I want my kicker to play in a dome, but if not, I want him in nice weather (not too windy, rainy, snowy, etc.). The dome part is easy to figure out, and the weather part is available on the internet. OK, now back to who I want my kicker to be facing. Last year, if you count 1pt for EP's and 3 pts for FG's, here are the 5 teams that gave up the most points:

OAK - 139

NO - 136

HOU - 131

SF - 130

STL - 127

NYJ - 127 (tied for 5th)

And here are the 5 teams that gave up the least points to opposing kickers:

DEN - 72

IND - 81

CHI - 82

JAC - 89

CAR - 91

(KC, SD, WAS, PIT, and NYG were the only other teams under 100)

If you look at the teams above, you will see that the teams with pourous run defenses gave up the most to kickers. All of them finished in the bottom 8 of the league (except for SF, who came in 18th).

And if you look at the teams that gave up the least points, they are the teams with good run defenses. All 10 listed were in the top half of rush defenses.

So, when picking a kicker each week, find one who plays in a dome (or in favorable weather), against a pourous run defense.

My kicker for week 1 will be ... Nate Kaeding vs OAK

Agreed... when your league rules are compatible with that approach, working the waiver wire each week is a great way to go.For analyzing the matchups, I prefer to use an opponent's Kdefensive Factor, rather than straight up points allowed (see the last two columns at this link for last year's final numbers). This is the ratio of points allowed as compared to a kicker's average. It is also split into home vs. away, which can vary quite a bit for some teams.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I forgot to further prove my point by posting the stats for 2004.

Top 10 teams that gave up points to opposing kickers:

NO - 135

STL - 132

SF - 126

CIN - 123

TEN - 119

SEA - 119

CLE - 116

MIN - 115

CHI - 113

KC - 113

Once again, no team on the above list finished in the top 16 in rush yards allowed (except KC, but they were 13th)

And here are the top 10 teams that gave up the least points to opposing kickers:

NE - 68

NYJ - 77

PHI - 78

WAS - 79

ATL - 87

DET - 88

JAX - 90

SD - 93

PIT - 93

DEN - 94

And once again, all of these teams finished in the top 16 in rush yards allowed (PIT, WAS, SD, DEN, NYJ, and NE finished 1-6)

 

[Sopranos]

I pick one in the last round. Watch the WW. I got Feely off the WW and he finished 1st in points. you can get a top 10PK every year off the WW.

 

[Finatic]

I forgot to further prove my point by posting the stats for 2004.

Top 10 teams that gave up points to opposing kickers:

NO - 135

STL - 132

SF - 126

CIN - 123

TEN - 119

SEA - 119

CLE - 116

MIN - 115

CHI - 113

KC - 113

Once again, no team on the above list finished in the top 16 in rush yards allowed (except KC, but they were 13th)

And here are the top 10 teams that gave up the least points to opposing kickers:

NE - 68

NYJ - 77

PHI - 78

WAS - 79

ATL - 87

DET - 88

JAX - 90

SD - 93

PIT - 93

DEN - 94

And once again, all of these teams finished in the top 16 in rush yards allowed (PIT, WAS, SD, DEN, NYJ, and NE finished 1-6)

You can only find this kind of info in the SP

 

[mightyeskimo]

It's a rather complicated process involving 32 3x5 pictures, one metal dart and a paper sack.

 

[Englishteacher]

The majority of top ten kickers come from teams with strong offenses. The most consistent example is Elam, who has been top ten in 12 of his 13 years in the league, including 8 top fives.

Each year there are one or two from mediocre offenses that reach field goal range often but not any further. The problem is predicting which team that will be in a given year... except for the Ravens which is why Stover has been top ten in 6 of the last 7 years.

I think when it comes to Kickers you listen to the man. He is the man.

 

[SSOG]

Rackers hit 92%+ last year, and now he kicks in a new dome. The offense should be better, alloqing him less chances, but his accuracy should be sky high again.

I usually try to get a top 10 kicker based on my rankings, but Ill usually wait till 6-8 are off the board before I grab one. We carry 2 kickers, so I wait till the last round to grab my last one.

Last season was the first time in Neil Rackers' entire career that he finished in the top 20 in kicker rankings. His accuracy before last season was 69.4%. If last season doesn't absolutely SCREAM "fluke" at you, then I don't know what does.The one thing Rackers has going for him, in my opinion, is that Denny Green has shown a willingness to let him kick real bombs (7 attempts of 50+ yards last year, 9 the year before). For that reason, I value him pretty well in leagues with huge bonuses for 50+ yard field goals (as well as small negatives for misses from said length). Outside of those leagues, though, I don't even have Rackers in my kickers top-10.

 

[Mike Herman]

Rackers hit 92%+ last year, and now he kicks in a new dome. The offense should be better, alloqing him less chances, but his accuracy should be sky high again.

I usually try to get a top 10 kicker based on my rankings, but Ill usually wait till 6-8 are off the board before I grab one. We carry 2 kickers, so I wait till the last round to grab my last one.

Last season was the first time in Neil Rackers' entire career that he finished in the top 20 in kicker rankings. His accuracy before last season was 69.4%. If last season doesn't absolutely SCREAM "fluke" at you, then I don't know what does.The one thing Rackers has going for him, in my opinion, is that Denny Green has shown a willingness to let him kick real bombs (7 attempts of 50+ yards last year, 9 the year before). For that reason, I value him pretty well in leagues with huge bonuses for 50+ yard field goals (as well as small negatives for misses from said length). Outside of those leagues, though, I don't even have Rackers in my kickers top-10.

SSOG brings up a very good point. Hitting over 90% on FGs is very tough to repeat, as evidenced by the following follow-up year percentages:100%, 80.0% Vanderjagt

100%, 79.3% Wilkins

100%, 63.3% G. Anderson

93.3%, 82.8% G. Anderson

90.0%, 78.0% Blanchard

90.9%, 82.8% Brien

92.0%, 72.0% Josh Brown

90.5%, 65.5% Carney

91.9%, 82.9% Cunningham

92.3%, 84.0% Del Greco

95.7%, 85.7% Hanson

92.3%, 64.3% Hollis

91.3%, 68.2% Richey

ALMOST

92.9%, 87.9% Stover

90.6%, 88.2% Stover

THE EXCEPTIONS:

90.3%, 90.5% Mare

95.2%, 95.2% Murray

Plus the Cardinals had 45 FG attempts last year. That is even more difficult to duplicate.

 

[AB in DC]

SSOG brings up a very good point. Hitting over 90% on FGs is very tough to repeat,

I'd love to see an "accuracy under 40 yards" stat for FGs. My suspicion is that a player's success on FGs emboldens the coach to send him out more often for low-probability kicks. That's going to distort any kind of year-by-year comparisons.By contrast, every kicker in the NFL is expected to make under-40 kicks.

 

[SSOG]

SSOG brings up a very good point. Hitting over 90% on FGs is very tough to repeat,

I'd love to see an "accuracy under 40 yards" stat for FGs. My suspicion is that a player's success on FGs emboldens the coach to send him out more often for low-probability kicks. That's going to distort any kind of year-by-year comparisons.By contrast, every kicker in the NFL is expected to make under-40 kicks.

http://sports.yahoo.com/

 

[surferguy]

 

[AB in DC]

SSOG brings up a very good point. Hitting over 90% on FGs is very tough to repeat,

I'd love to see an "accuracy under 40 yards" stat for FGs.

http://sports.yahoo.com/

That doesn't give me any more info than Footballguys does already. I was hoping to avoid doing it by hand for every single kicker in every year. Paging Doug Drinen.....

 

[Bri]

Once upon a time, someone took out Ks at historically tough windy places to kick like Giants stadiums tricky swirling winds, Steelers' wind coming off the rivers thru that U shape break in the seats at the stadium etc. I'd guess there were 8 stadiums listed.

It was very interesting in that most Ks were accurate elsewhere like 90-100%. So really what you were looking for was how many games did they have in a tough stadium and were they wise/crafty enough to make the kick in the wind.

Mike, mr. kicker obsessed, if you're ever bored and feel like doing a "study" please consider re-doing this. It really wound up being useful.

 

[Mike Herman]

Once upon a time, someone took out Ks at historically tough windy places to kick like Giants stadiums tricky swirling winds, Steelers' wind coming off the rivers thru that U shape break in the seats at the stadium etc. I'd guess there were 8 stadiums listed.

It was very interesting in that most Ks were accurate elsewhere like 90-100%. So really what you were looking for was how many games did they have in a tough stadium and were they wise/crafty enough to make the kick in the wind.

Mike, mr. kicker obsessed, if you're ever bored and feel like doing a "study" please consider re-doing this. It really wound up being useful.

It's not exactly what you're looking for, but here's a monthly look at kicking in northern outdoor stadiums that I put together a couple years back. I'll have an updated, more comprehensive look at such things sometime this summer.