How do you pick your kicker..4 factors that make a top fantasy kicker (1 Viewer)

[bigreese82]

I have been trying to make some sense of the kicker rankings. How do you project your kickers? What factors or situations make for a good fantasy kicker?

1) good defense?

2) accuracy?

3) big leg?

4) high scoring offense?

5) coach's mentality?

6) good offense but bad running game?

7) indoor kickers?

hopefully Mike can weigh in on this too..but sometimes the weekly rankings from Mike's article differ from other FBGs ranking tremendously..and the going forward is like Russian to me when it comes to making sense of it..lol

Are their different philosophies on drafting and projecting kickers...anyone reasonably project the top kickers yearly? whats your method

 

[Modog814]

I personally look for a strong leg, a secure job, and a team that I think will have an above average offense, but might have trouble punching in touchdowns.

 

[ponchsox]

I personally look for a strong leg, a secure job, and a team that I think will have an above average offense, but might have trouble punching in touchdowns.

This. I wait until the last round to draft a kicker so I miss out on Kaeding, Gostkowski, etc. I look for teams who can move the ball but will sputter in the red zone (ie Bears).

 

[netnalp]

I personally look for a strong leg, a secure job, and a team that I think will have an above average offense, but might have trouble punching in touchdowns.

This. I wait until the last round to draft a kicker so I miss out on Kaeding, Gostkowski, etc. I look for teams who can move the ball but will sputter in the red zone (ie Bears).

Me too. Weak Olines prevent punching it in and stalls drives causing teams to settle for a FG and teams that lack a power RB.

 

[Banger]

high scoring offenses.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

good offense....and defense if possible

age/leg...sometimes the older guys make me nervous if they start only being 45 and in type guys....especially if a bomber is on the team that does kickoffs and long range FG....want my guy to get all of the FG's...probably not as big an issue this year

job security/reputation....meaning they have kind of established themselves as a "no way he gets replaced" type of guy....or a rook like Henery who is pretty much supposed to be the real deal for a long time....

and I probably put more into this one than most....but I like dome kickers.....seen some crappy weather (wind) and field conditions.....don't really want to worry about that if I don't have to....

and honestly I end up playing the waiver wire most of the year until I find a guy that has already had his bye week and has a nice schedule (especially playoffs) the rest of the way as far as warm weather cities or domes and then I just usually ride him the rest of the way and quit worrying about it....

 

[bigreese82]

I see the same similar questions...do these criteria usually fit the top 10 kickers in final yearly rankings?

 

[Insein]

1) Wait till last pick.

2) Find list of who's left.

3) Close eyes.

4) Point.

 

[butcher boy]

Wait until the last round and pick a guy whose last name sounds either polish or italian.

 

[HF21]

The main thing I look for is a guy with a late bye week. When his bye week rolls around I drop him for a warm weather or indoor kicker.

 

[azgroover]

high scoring offenses.

This is just about all it takes for me. I combine this with a guy who's been around for a few years and try not to reach.

 

[Jayrod]

Find out who will be kicking in Mexico City this year.

 

[glong989]

Wait until the last round and pick a guy whose last name sounds either polish or italian.

What is Suisham nationality wise?? I think all the Euro sounding guys were gone when my last pick rolled around.

 

[bigreese82]

well the top 3 or 4 kickers score about 35-40 points more than the kickers in that k15-20 range..i lose 2-3 games per year because of mediocre kickers

 

[eoMMan]

Wait until the last round and pick a guy whose last name sounds either polish or italian.

What is Suisham nationality wise?? I think all the Euro sounding guys were gone when my last pick rolled around.

I went with Suisham in my draft and I'm already thinking about dropping him.

 

[houndirish]

My first criteria is getting a guy who plays on a team that scores points. If they have a good offense I've always felt the kicker is in line to get his share. Granted some of these teams convert too much and you're left with extra points instead of field goals but still, I'd rather take my chances on a squad that scores. However since I typically wait until the end of the draft to pick up my kicker it seems like the guys that are known to play on the best offenses are already gone (think Vanderjagt during those Indy years, Gostkowski in New England). So my next filter is strong offense with only average running game. Maybe this adage doesn't hold up anymore but it used to be if you couldn't run the ball, you struggled in the red zone where open field is tough to come by. In recent years that led me to guys like Neil Rackers (when Arizona had Warner) and Mason Crosby last year (this year likely qualifies too) and Jason Hansen (this year). I used to target Dome kickers on good teams but I found that trend was inconsistent. I don't spend a ton of time looking at the historical accuracy of kickers.

I'm fully in the camp that favors being among the last to draft a kicker.

 

[ponchsox]

well the top 3 or 4 kickers score about 35-40 points more than the kickers in that k15-20 range..i lose 2-3 games per year because of mediocre kickers

I draft to have a better WR and RB corps then my opponents. I will let them have the better kicker.

 

[cheese]

Coach's mentality for sure matters. One simple example...The 49ers decided they cared about a better kicker as a weapon so they went out and signed David Akers in FA. Harbaugh trots him out there and he nails a 59 yard FG in preseason. A coach who will attempt those can be golden especially in leagues where long FGs are bonus.

I have also started taking a kicker in exactly the next to last round of every draft. There are soooo many people who now preach "take a kicker last" that spending a 16th instead of a 17th (or whatever depending on league depth) on the position will net you about the 3rd kicker off the board rather than the 10th or 11th. It doesn't make a HUGE difference, but I find that whoever else I was taking at that spot will be there in the last round anyway. The 3rd kicker won't be.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

1. Take a guy with the latest bye who is still around at my last pick and doesn't play for an epically awful offense.

2-4. Go do something else until the regular season starts

 

[glong989]

Wait until the last round and pick a guy whose last name sounds either polish or italian.

What is Suisham nationality wise?? I think all the Euro sounding guys were gone when my last pick rolled around.

I went with Suisham in my draft and I'm already thinking about dropping him.

I was just joking as I assume his post was a joke as well.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

well the top 3 or 4 kickers score about 35-40 points more than the kickers in that k15-20 range..i lose 2-3 games per year because of mediocre kickers

I can agree with the first part of your statement, but not the last.....not sure it is fair to say you lost those games because of a kicker.....yeah he may get you a zero on a given week, but it may have nothing to do with him.....or he may get you 5 extra points instead of 3 FG's, but it is not always his fault.....the rest of your team could have hurt/helped you as well on a game by game basis.....

 

[Run It Up]

Two categories imo (ignoring kicking conditions)

1. Teams that can move the chains but have poor defenses

2. Teams that have high scoring offenses

I prefer taking a kicker from the first category over the second simply because they are more likely to settle for field goals. (ex. Bironas, Janikowski, Brown, Feely) Having a big leg doesnt hurt either.

 

[footballnerd]

wait to the last pick and take Jason Hanson

 

[Mike Herman]

Profile of a Top Five Kicker

“The whole is more than the sum of its parts.” - Aristotle

[*]Could end up just about anywhere in the rankings the year afterwards

[*]Nearly half of them ranked between 6th and 15th the preceding year

[*]87% of them ranked in the top ten in number of field goal attempts

[*]Kickers with a field goal completion percentage from 85%-90% have the best odds of being a top five scorer

[*]73% come from top ten scoring offenses

[*]60% come from top ten yardage offenses

[*]52% come from top ten scoring defenses

[*]51% come from top ten yardage defenses

[*]A team with a new kicker is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]A team with a new quarterback is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]A team with a new head coach is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]Kickers with a home dome stadium do slightly better than those outdoors, but the difference is small

 

[Jayrod]

Profile of a Top Five Kicker

“The whole is more than the sum of its parts.” - Aristotle

[*]Could end up just about anywhere in the rankings the year afterwards

[*]Nearly half of them ranked between 6th and 15th the preceding year

[*]87% of them ranked in the top ten in number of field goal attempts

[*]Kickers with a field goal completion percentage from 85%-90% have the best odds of being a top five scorer

[*]73% come from top ten scoring offenses

[*]60% come from top ten yardage offenses

[*]52% come from top ten scoring defenses

[*]51% come from top ten yardage defenses

[*]A team with a new kicker is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]A team with a new quarterback is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]A team with a new head coach is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]Kickers with a home dome stadium do slightly better than those outdoors, but the difference is small

I love you and your wombat avatar!

 

[bigreese82]

Profile of a Top Five Kicker

“The whole is more than the sum of its parts.” - Aristotle

[*]Could end up just about anywhere in the rankings the year afterwards

[*]Nearly half of them ranked between 6th and 15th the preceding year

[*]87% of them ranked in the top ten in number of field goal attempts

[*]Kickers with a field goal completion percentage from 85%-90% have the best odds of being a top five scorer

[*]73% come from top ten scoring offenses

[*]60% come from top ten yardage offenses

[*]52% come from top ten scoring defenses

[*]51% come from top ten yardage defenses

[*]A team with a new kicker is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]A team with a new quarterback is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]A team with a new head coach is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]Kickers with a home dome stadium do slightly better than those outdoors, but the difference is small

nice!!! Who are the candidates that fit this criteria?

 

[ark]

Coach's mentality for sure matters. One simple example...The 49ers decided they cared about a better kicker as a weapon so they went out and signed David Akers in FA. Harbaugh trots him out there and he nails a 59 yard FG in preseason. A coach who will attempt those can be golden especially in leagues where long FGs are bonus.

I have also started taking a kicker in exactly the next to last round of every draft. There are soooo many people who now preach "take a kicker last" that spending a 16th instead of a 17th (or whatever depending on league depth) on the position will net you about the 3rd kicker off the board rather than the 10th or 11th. It doesn't make a HUGE difference, but I find that whoever else I was taking at that spot will be there in the last round anyway. The 3rd kicker won't be.

 

[VikingFrog]

I like to play the waiver wire for kickers.

I don't have one yet for week one. Thinking of a new strategy. The guy I'm playing has gore and Peterson and both longwell and San Fran kicker are available.

If his rbs can move the ball but not score its lining my guy up for field goal points.

If they score a td, I'm at least shaving one point off that td.

Probably stupid and overthinking it for week one.

Probably end up taking longwell as a Vikings fan week 1. But his leg looked weaker than usual in the preseason.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

nice!!! Who are the candidates that fit this criteria?

Outside of the career FG%, Suisham fits most of them:

[*]Could end up just about anywhere in the rankings the year afterwards - obviously everyone meets this criteria

[*]Nearly half of them ranked between 6th and 15th the preceding year - didn't play enough games to rank there, but PPG he was 1st

[*]87% of them ranked in the top ten in number of field goal attempts - again, didn't play in enough games to meet this last season, but the Steelers as a team likely did. Tomlin is certainly not averse to settling for FGs.

[*]Kickers with a field goal completion percentage from 85%-90% have the best odds of being a top five scorer he was over 90% in his games with Pitty last year, but on his career he's barely over 80%

[*]73% come from top ten scoring offenses Steelers will likely be a top 10 scoring offense

[*]60% come from top ten yardage offenses A very good chance the Steelers are a top 10 yardage offense

[*]52% come from top ten scoring defenses Excellent chance Pittsburgh is a top ten, if not the top, scoring defense

[*]51% come from top ten yardage defenses Excellent chance Pittsburgh is a top ten, if not the top, yardage defense

[*]A team with a new kicker is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent He is the incumbent

[*]A team with a new quarterback is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbentHas the same quarterback

[*]A team with a new head coach is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbentHas the same HC

[*]Kickers with a home dome stadium do slightly better than those outdoors, but the difference is smallNo dome, but as mentioned it's negligible

Plus, he's got a super late bye if you wanted to just roll with one kicker for a while. That's all bascially "The Good"

"The Bad:"

- He kicks half his games in Heinz Field, though he did do okay there last season.

- He's Shaun Suisham

I don't trust the guy, but he seems to fit most of the profile for this year. I'm certain there are others. Crosby would be another one for sure that should hit most of the ticks on that checklist, but you're going to have to pay a higher price for a guy like Crosby almost certainly.

Thinking back, I can recall a run of 3 or 4 years out of the past 8-10 that it seems like at least one guy who ended up as PK1-5 in most of my leagues was some lower-end guy from the waiver wire. Feely(a couple years, IIRC), Tynes, Kasay, Carney...those types.

I'd stick with the idea that it's probably best to just take a guy with a late bye and be prepared to jump on the undrafted guy who winds up on a better offense than predicted or happens to "gets hot" for a season. In a scenario like that, Suisham may actually be worth targeting if you can get him late(and in any draft I've had thus far you could have).

 

[ready5]

1) mike herman

2) high-scoring offense

3) dome games

4) negative covariance with QB/RB1

 

[Mister CIA]

Pick Josh Brown.

 

[SSOG]

Step 1- rank every offense in the NFL

Step 2- there is no step 2

 

[jackdubl]

I look for a strong passing game and poor running game. And indoors over outdoors.

 

[WFR]

Alex Henery, PHI was very accurate in college.

Is there anything that will keep that from carrying over to the NFL?

 

[SSOG]

Alex Henery, PHI was very accurate in college.Is there anything that will keep that from carrying over to the NFL?

Accuracy shows little-to-no correlation from year to year. Even accurate kickers experience wild swings in accuracy from year to year. For instance, here's Vinatieri's year-by-year accuracy: 77%, 86%, 79%, 79%, 82%, 80%, 90%, 74%, 94%, 80%, 90%, 80%, 80%, 78%, 93%. In half of his seasons, you're looking at a double-digit difference from the season before.That's why I really only look at the strength of a team's offense. If you try to target an accurate kicker like Vinatieri, there's no telling if you grabbed him in a 94% season or a 74% season.

 

[Johnny Blood]

I don't really care. I drop my kicker almost every week and add some other player off the waivers or free agency. Only having a kicker for gameday essentially increases your roster size by one. Having almost a full week to play with an extra roster spot has many advantages.

After that I look for a decent offense playing indoors.

It's all well and good to say the "top" kickers outperform others by $X points per season---if you can't predict who'll be on top it makes no difference. I don't think kicker stats are very predictable for the year.

 

[da_budman]

Without giving away pay info too much, Suisham is rated really high by FBG. and he DOES fit alot of the criteria, but Pitt's kicker is historically not a very good FF kicker. I think part of that has to do with the fact that they don't seem to go for long FG's probably due to that lousy field they play on. To his credit, Herman has him rated about right. The man knows kickers.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

i have a 1 step process

listen to herman.

 

[cvnpoka]

i have a 1 step processlisten to herman.

this ainec. just waiver wire pickup hermans best rated every week. proly pays for fbg subscription by itself.

 

[rocketsauce]

I wait till the last round and shoot for a guy in a strong offense, with a solid hold on he starting job. I also enjoy taking a kicker that correlates to one of my must start players, so if they do stall out in the red zone, I can hopefully still salvage 3 points. My #1 pick this year was Arian Foster, my kicker is Neil Rackers. Also love a good late bye week, which Rackers fills the criteria for as well.

 

[Two Deep]

kickers that kick in domes.

 

[Fat Nick]

I don't even draft a kicker. I draft sleepers or boom/bust guys and then drop the one that doesn't pan out before game 1. Then I'll scavenge a top guy who will likely be dropped on a bye week. The last 3 years I've ended up with one of the top 5 kickers by season's end.

Kickers are a crapshoot.

 

[Wadsworth]

Profile of a Top Five Kicker

“The whole is more than the sum of its parts.” - Aristotle

[*]Could end up just about anywhere in the rankings the year afterwards

[*]Nearly half of them ranked between 6th and 15th the preceding year

[*]87% of them ranked in the top ten in number of field goal attempts

[*]Kickers with a field goal completion percentage from 85%-90% have the best odds of being a top five scorer

[*]73% come from top ten scoring offenses

[*]60% come from top ten yardage offenses

[*]52% come from top ten scoring defenses

[*]51% come from top ten yardage defenses

[*]A team with a new kicker is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]A team with a new quarterback is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]A team with a new head coach is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]Kickers with a home dome stadium do slightly better than those outdoors, but the difference is small

Which brings me to my answer to the OP question. I draft whoever Mike Herman says I should draft. Literally, I spend zero time in prep and when I'm ready to take a kicker I pull up his rankings and take whoever is on top. He obviously thinks about fantasy kickers way more than any sane person.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Profile of a Top Five Kicker

"The whole is more than the sum of its parts." - Aristotle

[*]Could end up just about anywhere in the rankings the year afterwards

[*]Nearly half of them ranked between 6th and 15th the preceding year

[*]87% of them ranked in the top ten in number of field goal attempts

[*]Kickers with a field goal completion percentage from 85%-90% have the best odds of being a top five scorer

[*]73% come from top ten scoring offenses

[*]60% come from top ten yardage offenses

[*]52% come from top ten scoring defenses

[*]51% come from top ten yardage defenses

[*]A team with a new kicker is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]A team with a new quarterback is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]A team with a new head coach is less likely to be in the top five in kicker scoring than one with an incumbent

[*]Kickers with a home dome stadium do slightly better than those outdoors, but the difference is small

Which brings me to my answer to the OP question. I draft whoever Mike Herman says I should draft. Literally, I spend zero time in prep and when I'm ready to take a kicker I pull up his rankings and take whoever is on top. He obviously thinks about fantasy kickers way more than any sane person.

Yeah it's unbelievable how much better is he than anyone, as evidenced by the FF awards from earlier this year where he blew away thcompetition by almost 100% (like 75% accuracy to 47% IIRC)One additional caveat, as I like to hedge bets whenever possible. Is that I like to break ties based on who I start. For e.g I'll take a slightly lower rated K that week if he pairs with my QB, RB1, WR 1 etc (assuming they aren't also playing the 2004 Ravens D or something similar. It takes some of the'sting' out of a stalled red zone drive.

 

[ready5]

One additional caveat, as I like to hedge bets whenever possible. Is that I like to break ties based on who I start. For e.g I'll take a slightly lower rated K that week if he pairs with my QB, RB1, WR 1 etc (assuming they aren't also playing the 2004 Ravens D or something similar. It takes some of the'sting' out of a stalled red zone drive.

i.e. negative covariance

 

[CravenM]

Wait until the last round and pick a guy whose last name sounds either polish or italian.

Brief story: I was watch a Raiders game years ago with a buddy who was from Norway who didn't know the first thing about football. Sebass was kicking the balls through the end zone and my friend asked about him. I said he was a Polish guy who went to Florida State with the express purpose of kicking footballs and partying.The guy tells me: Everybody in Europe knows that Polish guys have the strongest legs - you should see their soccer team.I thought it was interesting...

 

[MNTom]

Without giving away pay info too much, Suisham is rated really high by FBG. and he DOES fit alot of the criteria, but Pitt's kicker is historically not a very good FF kicker. I think part of that has to do with the fact that they don't seem to go for long FG's probably due to that lousy field they play on. To his credit, Herman has him rated about right. The man knows kickers.

I am just recalling from memory but it seems that Pitt's kicker always starts out fast and is one of the leading scorers. But late in the season, the weather at Heinz gets worse and the kicking game suffers. At the end of the year, Pitt's kicker is about middle of the road.

 

[MNTom]

There will be a team which you will always want a kicker against. Last year, Arizona was consistently giving up more kicker points than any team. This year there will be another team or maybe Arizona again.

 

[VikingFrog]

Who is this Herman and how do I listen to him?

I've always just looked at Dodds kicker rankings.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Without giving away pay info too much, Suisham is rated really high by FBG. and he DOES fit alot of the criteria, but Pitt's kicker is historically not a very good FF kicker. I think part of that has to do with the fact that they don't seem to go for long FG's probably due to that lousy field they play on. To his credit, Herman has him rated about right. The man knows kickers.

I am just recalling from memory but it seems that Pitt's kicker always starts out fast and is one of the leading scorers. But late in the season, the weather at Heinz gets worse and the kicking game suffers. At the end of the year, Pitt's kicker is about middle of the road.

Heinz field has some of the craziest/swirliest winds of any NFL stadium, though the PITT K is usually kinda used to it. Opposing K's usually do poorly at Pitt.