dipandglide
Footballguy
I thoroughly enjoy EBF's thoughts and write ups. Keep doing what you do, sir, and ignore the idiots like maf.
The ##### is strong in this one.maf005 said:Coleman has been one of the most efficient rbs in the league since being drafted over the course of a non-negligible sample size. Seems you are maybe a bit stubborn on your pre-draft analysis.
Also, these rankings, along with the analysis, are basically consensus. And your track record is no better than a casual dynasty league player. What value do you think this type of analysis adds to these boards or your own FF success?
We've seen a lot of backs flash in part-time duty. It doesn't always translate if/when they get a starting role. Coleman had 392 rushing yards as a rookie and 520 as a second year player. Those are not useful stats in FF leagues, so trumpeting him as a success story seems a bit premature.maf005 said:Coleman has been one of the most efficient rbs in the league since being drafted over the course of a non-negligible sample size. Seems you are maybe a bit stubborn on your pre-draft analysis.
He disagrees with you. That doesn't make him bullheaded or a "horrible way to give someone perspective". Geez.I think your logical reasoning is questionable at best. You don't believe that Donta Foreman is not an elite player in the long term yet his situation is written about as gold. Lamar Miller still has a foothold there last I checked, but I don't even disagree with you on that ranking but I have far more positive things to say about someone who scratched the first round in this very deep class.
Its more that you've dismissed Joe Williams all together, it's a horrible way to give someone perspective. I fail to even see how Gallman or Mack's situation is better and they are far worse backs in both raw athleticism and running ability.
I don't want to miss out on anyone. Missing out on Ajayi or Howard is a big deal. You mention the litany of runners coming out next year but Shanahan is never going to invest higher than a 2nd at RB and if that's the case it's going to be a Clinton Portis who is arguably one of the most athletic players to ever play the position.
Your rankings are your rankings, and the criticism actually comes from a place of respect as I know people will read this and take stock in it. I just think it's bullheaded to ignore a player like Williams when Gallman, Mack and Mays get mentions. I mean I look at the guy and know with his style he could light up preseason and I'm holding enough stock to make a move on a high uptick. That screams value. To each his own though, perhaps apples to oranges in dynasty styles.
I am not sure why people think this when from watching Stewart I see half of his receiving yards coming off of jet sweeps.Love this. Great post. Agree with most of it with exception of Ardarius. I think he is an underrated talent that landed in a great spot. I think he could make a Malcolm Mitchell like impact in 2017 as spot starter late in the season. But unlike MM, in 2018 he'll be primed to be the top target in NY offense that likely will be sporting one of the top 2018 draft QBs. Everything lining up for a great value buy in dynasty.
I like what I've seen of his talent and skillset. People seem fine overlooking the Bama offensive scheme when it comes to projecting OJ but for some reason Stewart is dismissed for that same limited production. I also think there is something to the recent success of Bama WRs. Obviously Cooper & Julio are much higher pedigree but the influence of the current Bama coaching/recruiting staff can only be considered a positive.I am not sure why people think this when from watching Stewart I see half of his receiving yards coming off of jet sweeps.
You underestimate Mack's "raw athleticism and running ability" as you mentioned. From what I saw of him he has very good athleticism and burst.Its more that you've dismissed Joe Williams all together, it's a horrible way to give someone perspective. I fail to even see how Gallman or Mack's situation is better and they are far worse backs in both raw athleticism and running ability.
Thats fair and I have seen him make some good plays at times. Just not frequently enough for me to think what he is doing for Alabama will translate to the NFL.I like what I've seen of his talent and skillset. People seem fine overlooking the Bama offensive scheme when it comes to projecting OJ but for some reason Stewart is dismissed for that same limited production. I also think there is something to the recent success of Bama WRs. Obviously Cooper & Julio are much higher pedigree but the influence of the current Bama coaching/recruiting staff can only be considered a positive.
Don't get me wrong, I can get why people aren't as keen on him , but he's just someone I've got on my short list for dynasty.
Amen!Love this. Great post. Agree with most of it with exception of Ardarius. I think he is an underrated talent that landed in a great spot. I think he could make a Malcolm Mitchell like impact in 2017 as spot starter late in the season. But unlike MM, in 2018 he'll be primed to be the top target in NY offense that likely will be sporting one of the top 2018 draft QBs. Everything lining up for a great value buy in dynasty.
McCaffrey - should play if not "start" immediately.kutta said:It's crazy to me how many RB's from this class people expect to take over the starting job at some point this year. Are we really going to have 9 rookie RB's starting this year?
Wasn't there an article today saying he could beat out Hyde? Any credibility to it?Regarding Joe Williams, it is highly unlikely that he starts or gets 1b type carries without a hyde injury. But that happens more than many of us would like, so Joe probably gets a start or three soon. But he's squarely the backup.
how much weight do you put on most articles in the off season? As a hyde owner in many leagues I'm not the least bit worried about Joe. (Injury, sure)Wasn't there an article today saying he could beat out Hyde? Any credibility to it?
It was speculation, not a comment from the team. And the author didn't say it's likely, just that he has a legitimate chance, which usually means they're hedging. I agree that Williams could unseat Hyde if he plays better. It's just that there's nothing saying that the 49ers actually think he's better than Hyde, and they haven't begun to compete with one another.Wasn't there an article today saying he could beat out Hyde? Any credibility to it?
It was that article that got me thinking about the rookies. Everywhere I turn there's someone saying these guys are going to start this year, and there are going to be plenty of them who don't start and don't even contribute much. Figuring it all out is going to be tough.It was speculation, not a comment from the team. And the author didn't say it's likely, just that he has a legitimate chance, which usually means they're hedging. I agree that Williams could unseat Hyde if he plays better. It's just that there's nothing saying that the 49ers actually think he's better than Hyde, and they haven't begun to compete with one another.
This was the actual article from the csn bay area mail bag (which again, doesn't necessarily inspire confidence that this guy has any inside info - a regional correspondent writing an off season piece couched as letters from fans, not an article dedicated to Joe Williams written by one of the team's top cover guys)
Does Joe Williams have a real shot at supplanting Carlos Hyde as the starter? (Andrew Kerr)
Respected running backs coach Bobby Turner kept in touch with Williams even when he was not on the 49ers' draft board. Coach Kyle Shanahan desperately wanted Williams and convinced general manager John Lynch to reconsider Williams’ exclusion from the team’s draft plan.
The fact Turner and Shanahan campaigned for Williams speaks volumes about their plan for him. Turner and Shanahan wanted Williams. They see something in him. They know exactly how they want to use him.
So, yes, Williams has a legitimate chance to immediately unseat Hyde as the team’s top running back. Hyde is entering the final year of his contract. His first three seasons have been marked by inconsistencies and injuries that have sidelined him for 14 games.
The better player wins the job, and Williams has the distinct advantage of being the running back Turner and Shanahan hand-picked to fit their scheme.
You should be.how much weight do you put on most articles in the off season? As a hyde owner in many leagues I'm not the least bit worried about Joe. (Injury, sure)
Not really. He was"hand selected" in the 4th round - which granted, is higher than he was projected, and he fits their scheme as a complimentary back.You should be.
In the rookie player introduction phase of reporting I think it is pretty natural for writers to talk about these players as potential starters and also looking ahead to what those players might contribute to the team in years ahead.It was that article that got me thinking about the rookies. Everywhere I turn there's someone saying these guys are going to start this year, and there are going to be plenty of them who don't start and don't even contribute much. Figuring it all out is going to be tough.
Updated ownership stakes after 7 drafts.
JUJU SMITH - 6
DEVANTE MAYS - 6
PATRICK MAHOMES - 5
AMARA DARBOH - 4
JOE MIXON - 3
CHAD WILLIAMS - 3
GERALD EVERETT - 2
JOHN ROSS - 2
DALVIN COOK - 1
BUCKY HODGES - 1
KAREEM HUNT - 1
SAMAJE PERINE - 1
JONNU SMITH - 1
JAMAAL WILLIAMS - 1
I saw that about Golladay in OTAs, then I went back and looked at the list of guys that we were getting reports about looking amazing early in OTAs in 2016 and I became less excited. I'm not sure you could pick out a list of guys that had less of a fantasy impact if you tried.
I know we have the famous story of how Shanahan stood on the table for him, but in addition to Hyde the 'Niners brought in Hightower as a FA and traded for Kapri Bibbs and UDFA Brieda has gotten some buzz as well. It's possible that Williams doesn't even sniff 75 carries this season.Regarding Joe Williams, it is highly unlikely that he starts or gets 1b type carries without a hyde injury. But that happens more than many of us would like, so Joe probably gets a start or three soon. But he's squarely the backup.
He's "turning heads in OTAs"...."no ball thrown to him has hit the ground"..."no defender can touch him"..."He's exploding through the holes"....rinse and repeat each offseason.I saw that about Golladay in OTAs, then I went back and looked at the list of guys that we were getting reports about looking amazing early in OTAs in 2016 and I became less excited. I'm not sure you could pick out a list of guys that had less of a fantasy impact if you tried.
Who was passed for him?D'Onta Foreman just went at 1.05 in one of my drafts.
He might be underrated in general but wow. I remember Kadeem Carey going 1.03 in one of my leagues though.D'Onta Foreman just went at 1.05 in one of my drafts.
Yea, far and away the biggest issue these players is have is keeping their opportunity. Lots of guys in the NFL can thrive in spurts, but not many can hold down a starting job for multiple seasons. Do you think Jamaal Williams, Joe Williams, Mack, or Gallman are really that special? It can happen, but the Zac Stacy --> Tre Mason --> Todd Gurley situation is a common type of thing in the NFL. If a guy isn't one of the top 15-20 players in the entire league at his position, his job security is going to be under constant threat.Dr. Octopus said:Everyone wants every rookie RB to work out but the truth is most will not and we will be singing the praises of the 2018 RB class next year while forgetting the Williams, Macks and Gallmans of this year.
Don't get me wrong, I like a lot of these backs as well - but....
Will most likely go down as a terrible pick. Of course there are exceptions, but at least for me, passing on superior talents to address immediate positional need usually doesn't pay off in the long run. In my last draft I was absolutely desperate for RB help. I traded up from 2.06 to 2.01 and Perine and Foreman were both sitting there for me, but so was John Ross and I felt like I had to take him.Cjw_55106 said:D'Onta Foreman just went at 1.05 in one of my drafts.
This is the prayer of all owners of the 1.07 - somebody take an unexpected turn.Cjw_55106 said:D'Onta Foreman just went at 1.05 in one of my drafts.
My thinking exactly. I clearly have Ross rated ahead of Perine and Foreman (dynasty), and I will try to piece together some free agent bandaids or work a trade to cover a deficiency at RB before I take what I consider a lesser talent to fill a position need. If the difference is minimal, then sure, fill a need. For me Ross >> Perine > ForemanWill most likely go down as a terrible pick. Of course there are exceptions, but at least for me, passing on superior talents to address immediate positional need usually doesn't pay off in the long run. In my last draft I was absolutely desperate for RB help. I traded up from 2.06 to 2.01 and Perine and Foreman were both sitting there for me, but so was John Ross and I felt like I had to take him.
Exactly how I see it. I actually like Samaje and think he can be a decent NFL back, but I don't think there's a lot of "wow" factor there. Ross just looks like he has more of a chance to be a star, and obviously the NFL draft position strongly favors him.My thinking exactly. I clearly have Ross rated ahead of Perine and Foreman (dynasty), and I will try to piece together some free agent bandaids or work a trade to cover a deficiency at RB before I take what I consider a lesser talent to fill a position need. If the difference is minimal, then sure, fill a need. For me Ross >> Perine > Foreman
That is the thing with drafting in those middle to late slots: you let the draft come to you, but you are likely missing out on the premier RBs and will be forced to draft another position. Like you, I like Perine. I expected to be grabbing Perine in most of my drafts, but his stock has risen too high for what he brings. I am higher on Hunt than Perine, but neither of them look to me like long-term answers for their teams.Exactly how I see it. I actually like Samaje and think he can be a decent NFL back, but I don't think there's a lot of "wow" factor there. Ross just looks like he has more of a chance to be a star, and obviously the NFL draft position strongly favors him.
It's really tough though because in that particular league I've been stuck in a vicious cycle where I always have a pick in the 1.05-1.10 range, which is never quite high enough to get the RBs I want without bypassing superior prospects. I've tried a couple times to reach and get a second rate RB, but I have always regretted it. This year there were four RBs I liked in the top 5, and I had the 1.06 pick. Needless to say they all went in front of me. Oh well.
I think it's better to try to find value in a trade or deeper in the draft than to reach for need. As I've mentioned many times, I like Devante Mays as a late dart throw and he doesn't cost much, so that's a guy I'm loading up on this year instead of frequently using first rounders on Perine/Foreman/Hunt. My ownership on Jamaal Williams/Marlon Mack/Joe Williams/Wayne Gallman is also very low (I own Jamaal in one league where I got an extra luxury pick for trading down).
who did you pick at 1.03? and would you have taken that player at 1.01 if you kept it?I just dropped back from 1.01 to 1.03 for two 3rds, then traded those for Juju when he slipped. By these rankings that looks pretty good, we'll see.
Took Mixon, was really close for me but I liked the ppr upside. If I kept the pick it was really a coin flip. I think that Fournette could be one of those big guys without much wiggle that gets beat up in the nfl and wears down. He's so big and fast it's tempting but fact is agility has usually been more important in the nfl and it's not a strength of his, I could see him really struggling behind a bad line like the jags. Now if he had a great line he'd get rolling and destroy dbs at the second level but on the jags I think his upside is limited. Was really close but situation swung the decision for me.who did you pick at 1.03? and would you have taken that player at 1.01 if you kept it?
The last few years I've had success breaking down players into subsets of their style and examining how that subset of players have performed for fantasy.Exactly how I see it. I actually like Samaje and think he can be a decent NFL back, but I don't think there's a lot of "wow" factor there. Ross just looks like he has more of a chance to be a star, and obviously the NFL draft position strongly favors him.
It's really tough though because in that particular league I've been stuck in a vicious cycle where I always have a pick in the 1.05-1.10 range, which is never quite high enough to get the RBs I want without bypassing superior prospects. I've tried a couple times to reach and get a second rate RB, but I have always regretted it. This year there were four RBs I liked in the top 5, and I had the 1.06 pick. Needless to say they all went in front of me. Oh well.
I think it's better to try to find value in a trade or deeper in the draft than to reach for need. As I've mentioned many times, I like Devante Mays as a late dart throw and he doesn't cost much, so that's a guy I'm loading up on this year instead of frequently using first rounders on Perine/Foreman/Hunt. My ownership on Jamaal Williams/Marlon Mack/Joe Williams/Wayne Gallman is also very low (I own Jamaal in one league where I got an extra luxury pick for trading down).
Too early to say anything about Fuller, but I don't see strong parallels with the other guys. DHB, Ginn, and Williamson never had a 1000+ yard receiving season in college. Austin did, but he was utilized much differently from Ross. A lot less downfield stuff and a lot more catch-and-run.Some of it is kind of arbitrary, but when I see Ross I see an undersized receiver who was drafted very high largely because of his Blazing speed. When I look at that group of guys I don't see a lot of fantasy difference makers. Will Fuller, Tavon Austin, Ted Ginn, DHB, Troy Williamson.
True to a degree. Most of the time the late round picks don't add up to costing very much. You're probably not trading ten late picks for a stud player. Eta- by late picks, I'm talking 4th round on.The mentality that a lot of people have about late round picks is like gamblers: they remember the one time they won $1000 playing blackjack in Vegas while forgetting about the ten times they lost $150. Citing the "wins" without factoring in all of the losses isn't very meaningful.
In the above list of successes I highlighted the late round RB that I have been pretty high on and thought were worthy of an end of the first type investment. Jennings and Forsett I would still call bust calls on my part because they did not produce until much later on in their careers after I had already moved on from them.Going back to the number of 40+ VBD seasons only 24% of the group had 3 or more seasons performing at this level. In other words 3 out of four of these RB will have two or less seasons of 40 VBD.
WAIVER GEM:
RB Devante Mays, Packers - Mays is not an elite talent and like all late picks is more likely to fail than succeed, but Green Bay's 7th rounder was an intriguing selection who has some CJ Anderson traits as a compact power back with reasonably smooth sideways quickness and cutting ability. Everyone is focusing on Williams and Aaron Brown in this competition, but Mays has the potential to beat both of them out and is a must-add as a 4th+ round rookie pick or UDFA if you are trying to lock up this backfield. Even if you have no ownership stake in this backfield, I recommend adding him in deeper leagues and monitoring his preseason performance in case he pulls a Pierre Thomas/CJ Anderson here.