What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Top 24 Rookies 2017 (2 Viewers)

maf005 said:
Coleman has been one of the most efficient rbs in the league since being drafted over the course of a non-negligible sample size. Seems you are maybe a bit stubborn on your pre-draft analysis. 

Also, these rankings, along with the analysis, are basically consensus. And your track record is no better than a casual dynasty league player. What value do you think this type of analysis adds to these boards or your own FF success?
The ##### is strong in this one. 

 
maf005 said:
Coleman has been one of the most efficient rbs in the league since being drafted over the course of a non-negligible sample size. Seems you are maybe a bit stubborn on your pre-draft analysis.
We've seen a lot of backs flash in part-time duty. It doesn't always translate if/when they get a starting role. Coleman had 392 rushing yards as a rookie and 520 as a second year player. Those are not useful stats in FF leagues, so trumpeting him as a success story seems a bit premature.

As for the rest of your post, I think people like to hear opinions and analysis from others. I've been doing this for a long time and, while I definitely don't claim to have all the answers, I think I've learned some things over the years. I never expect people to take anything I say as gospel, but it's another opinion out there that people can weigh and consider. I've had some noteable misses in the past. At the same time, I've been one of the first people to bang the drum for players like Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, Tyreek Hill, and Andrew Luck. I put my opinion out there and let people do with it what they will. Most people ignore it and that doesn't bother me. It's just another take for people to chew on.

 
Love this. Great post. Agree with most of it with exception of Ardarius. I think he is an underrated talent that landed in a great spot. I think he could make a Malcolm Mitchell like impact in 2017 as spot starter late in the season. But unlike MM, in 2018 he'll be primed to be the top target in NY offense that likely will be sporting one of the top 2018 draft QBs. Everything lining up for a great value buy in dynasty.

 
I think your logical reasoning is questionable at best. You don't believe that Donta Foreman is not an elite player in the long term yet his situation is written about as gold. Lamar Miller still has a foothold there last I checked, but I don't even disagree with you on that ranking but I have far more positive things to say about someone who scratched the first round in this very deep class. 

Its more that you've dismissed Joe Williams all together, it's a horrible way to give someone perspective. I fail to even see how Gallman or Mack's situation is better and they are far worse backs in both raw athleticism and running ability.

I don't want to miss out on anyone. Missing out on Ajayi or Howard is a big deal. You mention the litany of runners coming out next year but Shanahan is never going to invest higher than a 2nd at RB and if that's the case it's going to be a Clinton Portis who is arguably one of the most athletic players to ever play the position.

Your rankings are your rankings, and the criticism actually comes from a place of respect as I know people will read this and take stock in it. I just think it's bullheaded to ignore a player like Williams when Gallman, Mack and Mays get mentions. I mean I look at the guy and know with his style he could light up preseason and I'm holding enough stock to make a move on a high uptick. That screams value. To each his own though, perhaps apples to oranges in dynasty styles.
He disagrees with you. That doesn't make him bullheaded or a "horrible way to give someone perspective".  Geez.

 
Love this. Great post. Agree with most of it with exception of Ardarius. I think he is an underrated talent that landed in a great spot. I think he could make a Malcolm Mitchell like impact in 2017 as spot starter late in the season. But unlike MM, in 2018 he'll be primed to be the top target in NY offense that likely will be sporting one of the top 2018 draft QBs. Everything lining up for a great value buy in dynasty.
I am not sure why people think this when from watching Stewart I see half of his receiving yards coming off of jet sweeps.

 
I am not sure why people think this when from watching Stewart I see half of his receiving yards coming off of jet sweeps.
I like what I've seen of his talent and skillset. People seem fine overlooking the Bama offensive scheme when it comes to projecting OJ but for some reason Stewart is dismissed for that same limited production. I also think there is something to the recent success of Bama WRs. Obviously Cooper & Julio are much higher pedigree but the influence of the current Bama coaching/recruiting staff can only be considered a positive.

Don't get me wrong, I can get why people aren't as keen on him , but he's just someone I've got on my short list for dynasty.

 
Its more that you've dismissed Joe Williams all together, it's a horrible way to give someone perspective. I fail to even see how Gallman or Mack's situation is better and they are far worse backs in both raw athleticism and running ability.
You underestimate Mack's "raw athleticism and running ability" as you mentioned.   From what I saw of him he has very good athleticism and burst.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I like what I've seen of his talent and skillset. People seem fine overlooking the Bama offensive scheme when it comes to projecting OJ but for some reason Stewart is dismissed for that same limited production. I also think there is something to the recent success of Bama WRs. Obviously Cooper & Julio are much higher pedigree but the influence of the current Bama coaching/recruiting staff can only be considered a positive.

Don't get me wrong, I can get why people aren't as keen on him , but he's just someone I've got on my short list for dynasty.
Thats fair and I have seen him make some good plays at times. Just not frequently enough for me to think what he is doing for Alabama will translate to the NFL.

He is nothing like Cooper who demonstrated refined route running ability and was used as a downfield threat as a WR. Stewart has some plays like this but not that many. A lot of what you can see him being successful doing are jets sweeps as I already mentioned, not a traditional WR role like Cooper was used at all.

 
I figured this thread would be a good spot to post this instead of starting a new thread.

It's crazy to me how many RB's from this class people expect to take over the starting job at some point this year. Are we really going to have 9 rookie RB's starting this year?

McCaffrey

Fournette

Cook

Mixon

Perine 

Hunt

Joe Williams

Jamal Williams

Mack

and that's not even counting Kamara. I have read at least one recent blurb on each of these guys saying they have a good chance of starting this year. Are we really looking at 9-10 rookie starting RB's? 

 
Love this. Great post. Agree with most of it with exception of Ardarius. I think he is an underrated talent that landed in a great spot. I think he could make a Malcolm Mitchell like impact in 2017 as spot starter late in the season. But unlike MM, in 2018 he'll be primed to be the top target in NY offense that likely will be sporting one of the top 2018 draft QBs. Everything lining up for a great value buy in dynasty.
Amen!

Stewart is one of my favorite players in the draft (esp when you can get him in the late 2nd-3rd). I don't think he has that WR1 ceiling, but he could turn into a nice 75/1000/7 type of player. He has a smoothness to his game but at the same time plays tough. I'm gobbling him up everywhere I can. 

 
kutta said:
It's crazy to me how many RB's from this class people expect to take over the starting job at some point this year. Are we really going to have 9 rookie RB's starting this year?
McCaffrey - should play if not "start" immediately. 

Fournette - should start immediately

Cook - should play if not "start" immediately. 

Mixon - a lot depends on gio's health but early rumors are that he will start right away

Perine - beating out fat rob is not a forgone conclusion but is certainly doable

Hunt - will compete with ware and charcnado but seems likely to at least have a role

Joe Williams - may have a chance to compete with Hyde but Hyde doesn't suck, he just can't stay healthy.  More likely to be a 1a/1b timeshare at best 

Jamal Williams - has to beat the incumbent Montgomery who changed positions, but looked fairly good doing it. Then he has to beat the other rookies.  He's probably the favorite to lead the team in carries, but he's not a lock. If he was he'd be a consensus first round rookie pick. 

Mack - The colts aren't going to cut gore when he's one good season from moving into the top 4 all time rushing leaders.  If gore plays well, mack will pick up some of turbin's touches. If he struggles or gets hurt, he isn't even the guaranteed backup. He's a solid rb prospect, and the Colts haven't invested much else at the position, but he could easily disappear from memory if he doesn't get a chance to start this year and the Colts drat someone from another expected good running back class. 

Kamara - seems to have a role right away,  which makes him more valuable for 2017 than some of these other guys. Could have low end fantasy rb1 appeal in that role but seems unlikely to ever emerge as a true stud rb.

You also didn't mention

Foreman - could be the rb1 for Houston if they think Lamar Miller is better suited as a third down/change of pace option. Has his own flaws as a player but should be better than Alfred blue.  

Pumphrey - pegged as the sproles replacement, handled a big college workload despite his very small size  Will never be a 200 carry back,  but could be as good as kamara at a fraction of the price.  If the eagles hadn't traded up for him when they already had other pass catching little guys on the roster and appeared to need a big complementary guy, I'd be less interested.

Gallman - i am a bigger Perkins honk than most but gallman only has to beat out a 2016 fifth round pick for carries.  Stranger things happen all the time.  I dont think he's ready to compete for significant touches in year 1 but he should have a role right away 

Denver rb - every few years i forget how much i hate the Denver running back,  so I'm refusing to learn his name.  Still,  news last week was that Denver would have an rb competition.  News today suggested that Charlies is 50/50 to make the team. Booker didn't look good last year as the main guy.  Maybe that means the rookie has a chance to compete for the job.  

That might seem like a lot,  by remember that this time last year, we thought Elliot,  Henry,  Dixon,  Prosise, Perkins,  Howard, Booker, Ferguson,  Smallwood, and maybe a few others had a chance to start right away.  It's pretty likely that fournette,  mccaffrey, cook and mixon will be starters but we're probably overrating a lot of the other guys' chances of winning a job long term.  That said,  most running backs churn in the first four years, so 8 rookies (one quarter of the league)  eventually starting from this class wouldn't even be that extraordinary, especially if they're "starting" in 1a/1b type roles like kamara or foreman.

 
Regarding Joe Williams, it is highly unlikely that he starts or gets 1b type carries without a hyde injury.  But that happens more than many of us would like, so Joe probably gets a start or three soon.  But he's squarely the backup.

 
Regarding Joe Williams, it is highly unlikely that he starts or gets 1b type carries without a hyde injury.  But that happens more than many of us would like, so Joe probably gets a start or three soon.  But he's squarely the backup.
Wasn't there an article today saying he could beat out Hyde?  Any credibility to it?

 
Wasn't there an article today saying he could beat out Hyde?  Any credibility to it?
:shrug: how much weight do you put on most articles in the off season?  As a hyde owner in many leagues I'm not the least bit worried about Joe.  (Injury, sure)

 
Wasn't there an article today saying he could beat out Hyde?  Any credibility to it?
It was speculation, not a comment from the team. And the author didn't say it's likely, just that he has a legitimate chance, which usually means they're hedging. I agree that Williams could unseat Hyde if he plays better. It's just that there's nothing saying that the 49ers actually think he's better than Hyde, and they haven't begun to compete with one another.  

This was the actual article from the csn bay area mail bag (which again,  doesn't necessarily inspire confidence that this guy has any inside info - a regional correspondent writing an off season piece couched as letters from fans, not an article dedicated to Joe Williams written by one of the team's top cover guys) 

Does Joe Williams have a real shot at supplanting Carlos Hyde as the starter? (Andrew Kerr) 
Respected running backs coach Bobby Turner kept in touch with Williams even when he was not on the 49ers' draft board. Coach Kyle Shanahan desperately wanted Williams and convinced general manager John Lynch to reconsider Williams’ exclusion from the team’s draft plan.

The fact Turner and Shanahan campaigned for Williams speaks volumes about their plan for him. Turner and Shanahan wanted Williams. They see something in him. They know exactly how they want to use him.

So, yes, Williams has a legitimate chance to immediately unseat Hyde as the team’s top running back. Hyde is entering the final year of his contract. His first three seasons have been marked by inconsistencies and injuries that have sidelined him for 14 games.

The better player wins the job, and Williams has the distinct advantage of being the running back Turner and Shanahan hand-picked to fit their scheme.

 
It was speculation, not a comment from the team. And the author didn't say it's likely, just that he has a legitimate chance, which usually means they're hedging. I agree that Williams could unseat Hyde if he plays better. It's just that there's nothing saying that the 49ers actually think he's better than Hyde, and they haven't begun to compete with one another.  

This was the actual article from the csn bay area mail bag (which again,  doesn't necessarily inspire confidence that this guy has any inside info - a regional correspondent writing an off season piece couched as letters from fans, not an article dedicated to Joe Williams written by one of the team's top cover guys) 

Does Joe Williams have a real shot at supplanting Carlos Hyde as the starter? (Andrew Kerr) 
Respected running backs coach Bobby Turner kept in touch with Williams even when he was not on the 49ers' draft board. Coach Kyle Shanahan desperately wanted Williams and convinced general manager John Lynch to reconsider Williams’ exclusion from the team’s draft plan.

The fact Turner and Shanahan campaigned for Williams speaks volumes about their plan for him. Turner and Shanahan wanted Williams. They see something in him. They know exactly how they want to use him.

So, yes, Williams has a legitimate chance to immediately unseat Hyde as the team’s top running back. Hyde is entering the final year of his contract. His first three seasons have been marked by inconsistencies and injuries that have sidelined him for 14 games.

The better player wins the job, and Williams has the distinct advantage of being the running back Turner and Shanahan hand-picked to fit their scheme.
It was that article that got me thinking about the rookies. Everywhere I turn there's someone saying these guys are going to start this year, and there are going to be plenty of them who don't start and don't even contribute much. Figuring it all out is going to be tough.

 
You should be.
Not really.  He was"hand selected" in the 4th round - which granted, is higher than he was projected, and he fits their scheme as a complimentary back.  

Let's say he somehow starts by mid season (which I highly doubt), hyde leaves SF.  That's a plus imo in a dynasty.  

If the author had simply said Williams will have a role and is liked by the coaches, that would be legit.  But he's not unseating hyde any more than tevin unseated Freeman. 

 
It was that article that got me thinking about the rookies. Everywhere I turn there's someone saying these guys are going to start this year, and there are going to be plenty of them who don't start and don't even contribute much. Figuring it all out is going to be tough.
In the rookie player introduction phase of reporting I think it is pretty natural for writers to talk about these players as potential starters and also looking ahead to what those players might contribute to the team in years ahead.

It isn't very wise to anoint starters in May unless they are the incumbents. The RB position is such that if they are any good, they should play, at least some of the time. Being able to play isn't the same thing as winning the starting job or a majority share of the snaps or touches of the offense. But when someone says a rookie has a chance to start, they might be talking about down the road, such as 2018. (just giving the benefit of the doubt).

Many of the better RB in the league prior to the 2017 draft are over the hill former stars, (Peterson, Lynch, Charles, Forte, Gore) or soon will be over the hill, or have never been consistently good for long enough to consider them incumbent starters. Then perhaps a lack of talent at the position as reflected by no 1st round RB for a couple years. This creates somewhat of a vacuum of top talent at the position and therefore opportunity for new players to prove their worth (or not).

While there are always writers who get a bit carried away with the what if scenarios and excitement. (I have been there before) Other writers will be more cautious about this. You have to consider the source. When John Keim says good things about Perine I take that pretty seriously. It is also easy for me to believe. When a writer from the 49ers I am not even familiar with is talking about Joe WIlliams I would take that with a huge grain of salt unless you know the writer and feel they are being honest, not just creating hawt takes.

I do think a lot of the RB mentioned will get to play, but they won't all play well, so the ones who don't won't become starters after that opportunity.

The 2017 draft class is talented enough that more might be more successful than a typical draft.  Instead of 2-4 starterish RB from a usual draft class who emerge maybe there will be 4-6 of them from 2017 instead.

The exuberant writers will be that way every year, That is something important about the context as well. If it is Jon Gruden talking about a player being great, that is not unusual. To hear John Keim say that is completely different than the more even take I have gotten used to from him. It seems more genuine coming from him, because it isn't something he would normally get out in front of, based on my experience with reading his work for many years.

Figuring it out is where the player evaluation helps. How good is the RB compared to all RB in the league? Which of these rookies will play well when given the opportunity? Which ones are more likely to prove they are not good?

I feel better about trying to figure it out that way than I do about figuring out anything reading tea leaves in May.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Updated ownership stakes after 7 drafts.

JUJU SMITH - 6
DEVANTE MAYS - 6

PATRICK MAHOMES - 5

AMARA DARBOH - 4

JOE MIXON - 3
CHAD WILLIAMS - 3

GERALD EVERETT - 2
JOHN ROSS - 2

DALVIN COOK - 1
BUCKY HODGES - 1
KAREEM HUNT - 1
SAMAJE PERINE - 1
JONNU SMITH - 1
JAMAAL WILLIAMS - 1


These are my guys this year. Darboh, Mahomes, Mays, and JuJu are on over 50% of my rosters.

Technically, I have half a draft remaining, as one of these drafts pauses after the third round and resumes during the preseason. I was trying hard to trade into the 3rd to grab Mays there before he has a chance to pop in training camp/preseason, but nobody was biting on my offers. Still a good chance I'll end up with him in 7/7 leagues when all is said and done.

 
I saw that about Golladay in OTAs, then I went back and looked at the list of guys that we were getting reports about looking amazing early in OTAs in 2016 and I became less excited.  I'm not sure you could pick out a list of guys that had less of a fantasy impact if you tried.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I saw that about Golladay in OTAs, then I went back and looked at the list of guys that we were getting reports about looking amazing early in OTAs in 2016 and I became less excited.  I'm not sure you could pick out a list of guys that had less of a fantasy impact if you tried.


True. But sometimes you get a Stefon Diggs who pops and belongs from the instant he hits his first OTA. You never know.

 
I like reading this and watching your draft list.

Almost everything you write makes me wanna go to other direction and that's not bad at all. We all have different opinions and I still love your analysis. 

 
Regarding Joe Williams, it is highly unlikely that he starts or gets 1b type carries without a hyde injury.  But that happens more than many of us would like, so Joe probably gets a start or three soon.  But he's squarely the backup.
I know we have the famous story of how Shanahan stood on the table for him, but in addition to Hyde the 'Niners brought in Hightower as a FA and traded for Kapri Bibbs and UDFA Brieda has gotten some buzz as well. It's possible that Williams doesn't even sniff 75 carries this season.

Everyone wants every rookie RB to work out but the truth is most will not and we will be singing the praises of the 2018 RB class next year while forgetting the Williams, Macks and Gallmans of this year.

Don't get me wrong, I like a lot of these backs as well - but....

 
I saw that about Golladay in OTAs, then I went back and looked at the list of guys that we were getting reports about looking amazing early in OTAs in 2016 and I became less excited.  I'm not sure you could pick out a list of guys that had less of a fantasy impact if you tried.
He's "turning heads in OTAs"...."no ball thrown to him has hit the ground"..."no defender can touch him"..."He's exploding through the holes"....rinse and repeat each offseason.

Golladay is one of "my guys" though so let's hope.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
 Everyone wants every rookie RB to work out but the truth is most will not and we will be singing the praises of the 2018 RB class next year while forgetting the Williams, Macks and Gallmans of this year.

Don't get me wrong, I like a lot of these backs as well - but....
Yea, far and away the biggest issue these players is have is keeping their opportunity. Lots of guys in the NFL can thrive in spurts, but not many can hold down a starting job for multiple seasons. Do you think Jamaal Williams, Joe Williams, Mack, or Gallman are really that special? It can happen, but the Zac Stacy --> Tre Mason --> Todd Gurley situation is a common type of thing in the NFL. If a guy isn't one of the top 15-20 players in the entire league at his position, his job security is going to be under constant threat.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Cjw_55106 said:
D'Onta Foreman just went at 1.05 in one of my drafts.  :shock:
Will most likely go down as a terrible pick. Of course there are exceptions, but at least for me, passing on superior talents to address immediate positional need usually doesn't pay off in the long run. In my last draft I was absolutely desperate for RB help. I traded up from 2.06 to 2.01 and Perine and Foreman were both sitting there for me, but so was John Ross and I felt like I had to take him.

 
Will most likely go down as a terrible pick. Of course there are exceptions, but at least for me, passing on superior talents to address immediate positional need usually doesn't pay off in the long run. In my last draft I was absolutely desperate for RB help. I traded up from 2.06 to 2.01 and Perine and Foreman were both sitting there for me, but so was John Ross and I felt like I had to take him.
My thinking exactly. I clearly have Ross rated ahead of Perine and Foreman (dynasty), and I will try to piece together some free agent bandaids or work a trade to cover a deficiency at RB before I take what I consider a lesser talent to fill a position need. If the difference is minimal, then sure, fill a need. For me Ross >> Perine > Foreman

 
  • Smile
Reactions: EBF
My thinking exactly. I clearly have Ross rated ahead of Perine and Foreman (dynasty), and I will try to piece together some free agent bandaids or work a trade to cover a deficiency at RB before I take what I consider a lesser talent to fill a position need. If the difference is minimal, then sure, fill a need. For me Ross >> Perine > Foreman
Exactly how I see it. I actually like Samaje and think he can be a decent NFL back, but I don't think there's a lot of "wow" factor there. Ross just looks like he has more of a chance to be a star, and obviously the NFL draft position strongly favors him.

It's really tough though because in that particular league I've been stuck in a vicious cycle where I always have a pick in the 1.05-1.10 range, which is never quite high enough to get the RBs I want without bypassing superior prospects. I've tried a couple times to reach and get a second rate RB, but I have always regretted it. This year there were four RBs I liked in the top 5, and I had the 1.06 pick. Needless to say they all went in front of me. Oh well.

I think it's better to try to find value in a trade or deeper in the draft than to reach for need. As I've mentioned many times, I like Devante Mays as a late dart throw and he doesn't cost much, so that's a guy I'm loading up on this year instead of frequently using first rounders on Perine/Foreman/Hunt. My ownership on Jamaal Williams/Marlon Mack/Joe Williams/Wayne Gallman is also very low (I own Jamaal in one league where I got an extra luxury pick for trading down).

 
Exactly how I see it. I actually like Samaje and think he can be a decent NFL back, but I don't think there's a lot of "wow" factor there. Ross just looks like he has more of a chance to be a star, and obviously the NFL draft position strongly favors him.

It's really tough though because in that particular league I've been stuck in a vicious cycle where I always have a pick in the 1.05-1.10 range, which is never quite high enough to get the RBs I want without bypassing superior prospects. I've tried a couple times to reach and get a second rate RB, but I have always regretted it. This year there were four RBs I liked in the top 5, and I had the 1.06 pick. Needless to say they all went in front of me. Oh well.

I think it's better to try to find value in a trade or deeper in the draft than to reach for need. As I've mentioned many times, I like Devante Mays as a late dart throw and he doesn't cost much, so that's a guy I'm loading up on this year instead of frequently using first rounders on Perine/Foreman/Hunt. My ownership on Jamaal Williams/Marlon Mack/Joe Williams/Wayne Gallman is also very low (I own Jamaal in one league where I got an extra luxury pick for trading down).
That is the thing with drafting in those middle to late slots: you let the draft come to you, but you are likely missing out on the premier RBs and will be forced to draft another position. Like you, I like Perine. I expected to be grabbing Perine in most of my drafts, but his stock has risen too high for what he brings.  I am higher on Hunt than Perine, but neither of them look to me like long-term answers for their teams. 

I like Mays as a dart throw (I am investing in him, and he comes cheap).  I also like De'Angelo Henderson, Elijah McGuire, Brian Hill and Matt Breida as late-round targets. Odds are obviously against them hitting, but if I have a roster spot to burn, I love holding guys like that to see how things shake out in Camp and preseason. 

 
  • Smile
Reactions: EBF
:thumbup:   Came to make sure Mixon was #1

Also agree about Fournette.

Thanks for posting.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I just dropped back from 1.01 to 1.03 for two 3rds, then traded those for Juju when he slipped. By these rankings that looks pretty good, we'll see.

 
who did you pick at 1.03?  and would you have taken that player at 1.01 if you kept it?
Took Mixon, was really close for me but I liked the ppr upside. If I kept the pick it was really a coin flip. I think that Fournette could be one of those big guys without much wiggle that gets beat up in the nfl and wears down. He's so big and fast it's tempting but fact is agility has usually been more important in the nfl and it's not a strength of his, I could see him really struggling behind a bad line like the jags. Now if he had a great line he'd get rolling and destroy dbs at the second level but on the jags I think his upside is limited. Was really close but situation swung the decision for me.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Exactly how I see it. I actually like Samaje and think he can be a decent NFL back, but I don't think there's a lot of "wow" factor there. Ross just looks like he has more of a chance to be a star, and obviously the NFL draft position strongly favors him.

It's really tough though because in that particular league I've been stuck in a vicious cycle where I always have a pick in the 1.05-1.10 range, which is never quite high enough to get the RBs I want without bypassing superior prospects. I've tried a couple times to reach and get a second rate RB, but I have always regretted it. This year there were four RBs I liked in the top 5, and I had the 1.06 pick. Needless to say they all went in front of me. Oh well.

I think it's better to try to find value in a trade or deeper in the draft than to reach for need. As I've mentioned many times, I like Devante Mays as a late dart throw and he doesn't cost much, so that's a guy I'm loading up on this year instead of frequently using first rounders on Perine/Foreman/Hunt. My ownership on Jamaal Williams/Marlon Mack/Joe Williams/Wayne Gallman is also very low (I own Jamaal in one league where I got an extra luxury pick for trading down).
The last few years I've had success breaking down players into subsets of their style and examining how that subset of players have performed for fantasy. 

Some of it is kind of arbitrary, but when I see Ross I see an undersized receiver who was drafted very high largely because of his Blazing speed. When I look at that group of guys I don't see a lot of fantasy difference makers. Will Fuller, Tavon Austin, Ted Ginn, DHB, Troy Williamson. 

Meanwhile  depending on how you have them ranked you could argue that 3 of the top 5 dynasty RBs right now (David Johnson, Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard) were these mid round scrubs, with several others filling out the top 10 as well. 

That's not to say these small speedy WRs can't work out as there are several currently excelling, but they don't really seem to have a better hit rate than the overhyped mid round RB darling s of each year and even the ones that have succeeded have had little correlation with their draft position. 

 
Some of it is kind of arbitrary, but when I see Ross I see an undersized receiver who was drafted very high largely because of his Blazing speed. When I look at that group of guys I don't see a lot of fantasy difference makers. Will Fuller, Tavon Austin, Ted Ginn, DHB, Troy Williamson.
Too early to say anything about Fuller, but I don't see strong parallels with the other guys. DHB, Ginn, and Williamson never had a 1000+ yard receiving season in college. Austin did, but he was utilized much differently from Ross. A lot less downfield stuff and a lot more catch-and-run.

I would say that Ross is more like TY Hilton and DeSean Jackson, who have both had good success in the NFL.

As for the RBs, people remember the big hits, but quickly forget most of the failures. David Johnson was a 3rd round pick and there have been a lot of good backs from that round, but the hit rate on 4th+ round RBs is still pretty ugly even with guys like Freeman, Ajayi, and Howard having done well in the past couple years.

The mentality that a lot of people have about late round picks is like gamblers: they remember the one time they won $1000 playing blackjack in Vegas while forgetting about the ten times they lost $150. Citing the "wins" without factoring in all of the losses isn't very meaningful.

 
The mentality that a lot of people have about late round picks is like gamblers: they remember the one time they won $1000 playing blackjack in Vegas while forgetting about the ten times they lost $150. Citing the "wins" without factoring in all of the losses isn't very meaningful.
True to a degree.  Most of the time the late round picks don't add up to costing very much.  You're probably not trading ten late picks for a stud player.  Eta- by late picks, I'm talking 4th round on.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Looking at the historic data by draft position shows relatively lower odds of a RB becoming good (as defined by a 40ish VBD season)  than RB who were drafted in the top 100 picks. 

However many of them do so, and the frequency of lower RB draft picks having good seasons has definitely increased in recent years.

Here are the players selected round four or later from 2005 to 2016. Just sorting this list by career AV to quickly identify the hits you find.

Deontae Freeman
Lamar Miller
Danny Woodhead
LeGarratee Blount
Darren Sproles    
Ahmad Bradshaw    
Marion Barber    
Spencer Ware
Zac Stacy
Jay Ajayi

Jordan Howard
Afred Morris
Brandon Jacobs    
Rashad Jennings    
Justin Forsett    

Tim Hightower    
Peyton Hillis        
Bilal Powell    
Latavius Murray    
Andre Ellington    
Theo Riddick    
James White        
Leon Washington    
James Starks

Now some of the above only have high career AV from compiling numbers, but were not really starters for fantasy, or were for only a small number of games. Several only have one good season, so you could consider that a fluke. I would be careful about this at the same time though in the context of all RB only averaging two good seasons. Two certainly a lot better than one, but one is still better than the majority of the RB and still very useful for fantasy.

These are just the (mostly) successes though out of a large sample of players. Obviously there are more RB drafted round 4 and later than these who fail. Most of them do fail (to become fantasy relevant for more than a game or two) at the same time, there are a lot fewer RB being drafted earlier than round four, than there are RB being drafted round four and later, the so success rate of the lower picks is going to worse just because of that difference in the sample size, or frequency of RB being selected in later rounds..

You are searching for that late round player who could actually going to be successful, and trying to eliminate the players who won't or at least to not invest relatively high draft (end of the 1st round beginning of the second round) picks in such players unless you truly believe in those players talent and situation to provide you with one (maybe more) good fantasy seasons.

I still contend that one top 12 season is worth a relatively high draft pick. You and others may disagree, but here is why I think that;

As far as RB being able to sustain a good seasons for more than one year, the average numbers of good seasons for the entire population of the best RB was two seasons. Having a player perform at this level for one season is going to help you win games in that season, and a worthwhile investment. Expecting more than two good seasons like this from a RB is bound to lead to disappointment though. That would be an unrealistic expectation. Players drafted in the top 13 picks of the NFL draft are more likely to provide more than two good seasons, that group averaged 2.9 good seasons. The players drafted 14-24 averaged 2.5 good seasons. Picks 25-46 averaged 1.6 good seasons. Picks 47-73 averaged 2.3 good seasons. Picks 74-114 averaged 1.7 good seasons Picks 115-187 averaged .94 good seasons, so a lot less likely to get the average of two good seasons from RB drafted after pick 115. The 188+ picks who were successes averaged 2.2 good seasons, but this is somewhat of a group of outlier type careers, such as Priest Holmes, Arian Foster skewing that part of the sample.

To put this another way just looking at the entire group of players:

Going back to the number of 40+ VBD seasons only 24% of the group had 3 or more seasons performing at this level. In other words 3 out of four of these RB will have two or less seasons of 40 VBD.
In the above list of successes I highlighted the late round RB that I have been pretty high on and thought were worthy of an end of the first type investment. Jennings and Forsett I would still call bust calls on my part because they did not produce until much later on in their careers after I had already moved on from them. 

Jordan Howard a player I regret not being higher on.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
WAIVER GEM:

RB Devante Mays, Packers - Mays is not an elite talent and like all late picks is more likely to fail than succeed, but Green Bay's 7th rounder was an intriguing selection who has some CJ Anderson traits as a compact power back with reasonably smooth sideways quickness and cutting ability. Everyone is focusing on Williams and Aaron Brown in this competition, but Mays has the potential to beat both of them out and is a must-add as a 4th+ round rookie pick or UDFA if you are trying to lock up this backfield. Even if you have no ownership stake in this backfield, I recommend adding him in deeper leagues and monitoring his preseason performance in case he pulls a Pierre Thomas/CJ Anderson here.


Mays has made the Packers 53 man roster for now, so still has a pulse at the moment. Ty Montgomery would be my pick there in redraft, but I can see any one of those four guys having relevance this year.

Lot of impressive showings by rookies in the preseason. Thought Mixon and McCaffrey looked good. Engram, Kamara, and Mahomes as well. Hunt rises due to opportunity more than anything else.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top