How do you stop Julio, AJB and that freight train named Henry? (1 Viewer)

[MAC_32]

Injuries aside, it's going to be hard for an offense so narrow to really disappoint for fantasy. 

High level, I don't disagree, but I'm skeptical any of these guys (Henry RB3, Brown WR6, Julio WR13, Tannehill QB11) return a profit - something close to purchase price? Sure, maybe. But Vrabel must adapt for them to exceed it and there are some warning signs that they could fall short.

Henry - volume is king, but he developed some dud tendencies in 2020 as Vrabel's conservative/inefficient coaching flaws created suboptimal game script outcomes. His lack of involvement in the passing game washed him out of the game plan v CLE, almost did v PIT, probably would have v GB had the team not prioritized him getting to 2000 yds, and the offense funneled through him never got out of neutral v CHI and BAL (playoffs). I wouldn't nitpick at this if he were valued as a tier 2 type, but I am because he's not.

Tannehill - they've been 30th and 31st the last two seasons in passing attempts. He can run, but it hasn't been needle moving numbers - 266 yds in a full season in 20, 185 in a partial the year prior. On a per game basis he's been QB9 and QB10 the last 2 seasons. That's...fine, but without an uptick in volume he's likely not exceeding that in 2021.

Brown - he's an efficient monster, but he's also net just 190 targets across his first two seasons. Isolating just 2020, that's 23rd in targets/game and he didn't need to compete for targets with Julio. Again, the volume issue.

Julio - (broken record) I'm skeptical there are as many targets available as the depth chart leads one to believe because this team historically does not throw much. I think it's fair to assume Reynolds takes Humprhies share, so if we deduct that number (5 targets/game) from the 9 games he missed between Jonnu and Davis we end up with about 7.5-8 targets/game lost to free agency. Even if we allocate all of those to Julio his targets/game puts him in the same neighborhood as his teammate, AJ Brown - 23rd in the league. 

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Tl;Dr - if this team alters its approach this season all of those guys could best what they've done before, but it's dependent on those orders coming from the coaching staff. Another season of predictable give the ball to Derrick Henry on early down calls and there's a cap on what this offense will do. Of course there will be boom weeks, but will they be enough to offset the duds (in the case of Henry) and the lock of volume (in the case of the other 3)?

 

[Bri]

Racey had a great day yesterday. Can you imagine if that continues? Adding a 6-5 guy with wheels and ups to this offense?

 

[Tanner9919]

Julio is a great trade away player based on the hype that he's going for 110 recs. don't believe it.

Tannehill was top 5 in QBR, Rate #, 7th in INT% ( well ahead of Brady) , 8th in TD, 4th in TD%,  6th in YPA, 4th avg/ypa, 4th in ypc, 19th in times being sacked. dude's a stud relative to ADP, and we're only scratching the surface. if they throw just 10% more, Tannehill is a absolute beast.

about as solid and productive a QB as you would want. 

but for Julio, he ain't down by the school yard anymore. he's at home by the fireplace drinking hot cocoa.