What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

how does vegas work? (2 Viewers)

There are sports that if you are very savy and selective that you can profit on long term. NCAA college basketball has 365 division one teams that all play an average of 3 games a week. That's 500 lines that have to be posted weekly, no way can all 500 of those be sharp. No matter how smart the linesmaker, he has no way of knowing everything that's going on with Bellermine, Stephan F. Austin, Toledo etc. than he knows about the Packers.
I've only met one successful bettor in my life. Every other one I've known was bragging one week, quiet the next, and bet games on TV. A loser.

This guy went to some school in Tennessee, and was obsessive about college sports in that area. Smaller schools, West Tennessee State Tech or some such ####. He would bore me talking about some player at some school I never heard of, who would never be a pro.

Some weeks he wouldn't bet, and some weeks he would have two bets. Never bet NFL games.
 
I've done really well lately betting money lines in-game.

The KU Jayhawks are damn near a money machine - they are favored in a lot of games. But they have been known to go down 8-10 points early in a game, and when that happens the odds will flip and they will become dogs and I can get plus money for them

This weekend they were down at half by 15 and I got +340 on them. They were at Allen Field House and they ALWAYS go on a run in the second half. Which they did again and won.

But this works a lot in college basketball. Have had some good luck this year on that.

The only problem with things like this is you have to be careful because you get more and more confident and the bets get larger and larger and then when the trend turns, it's usually when you have the largest bets in.

That's what happened to me this year with the Bucs and Brady. They went on that run where Brady just didn't bother showing up until the 4th quarter and the Bucs would have 3 points through the first 3 quarters and then mount some big comeback in the 4th. So made a little money on that, but then eventually got to a game where as usual they were down at halftime, threw in a bet, they fell further behind in the 3rd, kept adding more and more at better and better odds, and then that week the run never came and all the winnings were wrapped up in that game.
That's why Vegas loves gamblers. Farrrrr too many lose money cause they start betting more. They may win more bets than they lose, but always end up losing what they have.
Yeah, definitely on both counts.

Most of my bets are small - $3 to $5. Kansas just got sports betting this last September, so I only put $50 in to try it out. So far I've more than doubled by money while learning how it all works.

If I ever lose my original stake I won't re-load - this is more for fun for me. I try to win small stakes to build the bankroll a few bucks at a time.
Thats how addictions start. A small taste. For gambling an early win is the worst thing for you long term.
Maybe, but not for me.

I don't care about it that much. It's just fun money.

Oh - and the Jayhawks did it again last night. They were actually dogs before the game. Easy money.
 
I've only met one successful bettor in my life. Every other one I've known was bragging one week, quiet the next, and bet games on TV. A loser.

This guy went to some school in Tennessee, and was obsessive about college sports in that area. Smaller schools, West Tennessee State Tech or some such ####. He would bore me talking about some player at some school I never heard of, who would never be a pro.

Some weeks he wouldn't bet, and some weeks he would have two bets. Never bet NFL games.

Interesting. (And no, Massraider isn't talking about me. I'm in East Tennessee ;) )

Did he elaborate on why he never bet NFL?
 
As someone up thread posted earlier, it's not a 10% rake on sides and totals, it's much closer to 5% as there is no vig on the bets that win, only the ones that lose.

I also agree that they shade the lines to the favorite and the over as Joe Public typically takes favorites and overs, fans like scoring.

There are also "Public" teams that will garner more action, The Cowboys, The Yankees, The Warriors (The Jordan Bulls teams back in the day) etc. Alabama, Georgia etc. in college football. Typically you are getting a -ev number when betting on these teams, not to mention the built in juice.

Thanks for the insights. That's always what I've thought too about the "public" teams.
 
As someone up thread posted earlier, it's not a 10% rake on sides and totals, it's much closer to 5% as there is no vig on the bets that win, only the ones that lose.

I also agree that they shade the lines to the favorite and the over as Joe Public typically takes favorites and overs, fans like scoring.

There are also "Public" teams that will garner more action, The Cowboys, The Yankees, The Warriors (The Jordan Bulls teams back in the day) etc. Alabama, Georgia etc. in college football. Typically you are getting a -ev number when betting on these teams, not to mention the built in juice.

Thanks for the insights. That's always what I've thought too about the "public" teams.

"Public" teams can vary by location as well. In Oregon, b & m books are only located at Native American reservation casinos. If you want to be on the Ducks or Beavers or Blazers, the number will be WAY worse than you can find at a Vegas or off shore book. In Vegas, you most likely will get worse numbers on the Raiders or Golden Knights. The book makers know they'll get bets on those teams regardless, so they inflate the number a bit to their advantage.
 

Interesting. (And no, Massraider isn't talking about me. I'm in East Tennessee ;) )

Did he elaborate on why he never bet NFL?
Pretty much what @Penguin said. You can't find soft lines in the NFL every week, but if know one small conference better than anyone, you consistently can.

This guy was emotionless about it, he's the only gambler I knew who wouldn't bet if he didn't see any lines he liked. He wasn't there to just gamble for the sake of gambling. He was a super fan of this one conference (still cannot remember which one, but definite TEN schools), and he religiously looked at the lines, to see if any lines were off in his opinion.

The best story about him is that years ago, I used to call him just to BS about football and such, and ask him if he had any hot plays, even though I don't gamble. 'Money line, App State. They gonna beat Michigan'. Watched that game with some friends in a bar, and some of them hounded me for a year, trying to get more plays.
 
This guy was emotionless about it, he's the only gambler I knew who wouldn't bet if he didn't see any lines he liked. He wasn't there to just gamble for the sake of gambling. He was a super fan of this one conference (still cannot remember which one, but definite TEN schools), and he religiously looked at the lines, to see if any lines were off in his opinion.
You HAVE to be emotionless, you are not betting on a team(s), you are betting on a number. If there's nothing on the current slate you take the day/night off. Never bet just because a game is on TV.
 
And I can't stress enough about bank roll management, it is the most important factor for any better. 99.9% of folks will bet over and beyond what they should. 2% Max, ideally 1% and even times 0.5% per wager. If you have $1000 in your account you can not be betting $100 a game, that's just irresponsible and you WILL go broke. Even the most disciplined betters will go broke over time, save for that 1/10th of 1%. Stay away from NFL, you will not beat it.
 
As someone posted earlier, the early lines will come out around 5:30 eastern on Sunday the week before while the late games are still going on. Those can't be be bet by the general public, they are released for a selective few Sharps to bet into and tighten the lines. This is a collaborative relationship between the the major books and a selective few sharps. Once those early lines are bet into and then tightened after that early sharp action the "true" line comes out.At that point, it might be too late, you missed out on the sweet spot
 
And, if you are fortunate to win, expect to be banned or limited to where you are essentially banned. At William Hill/Ceaser's I have a max bet of $1.28, lol
 
This all came about in a thread about sports betting with some of the best in the business contributing, one poster said, "Probably gonna sound counterintuitive and piss some people off but in my experience I’ve noticed that the more someone knows about sports and talks about sports, the more likely they are a losing sports bettor.." And I fully agree
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top