How much would a perfect backup QB be worth? (1 Viewer)

[ZWK]

How much would it be worth to a team with an elite quarterback to get a replica of their quarterback as their backup?

For example, imagine if the Patriots had the opportunity to sign a Tom Brady clone, who would be just like Brady, but would only play if the actual Brady was out with an injury. How much should they be willing to pay the Brady clone to be their backup for this season? He'd be a perfect insurance policy - if Brady goes out with an injury (like in 2008) then the offense wouldn't lose a thing and the clone would add a ton of value to the team. But if Brady stays healthy (like in 2009-2011) then the clone wouldn't add anything; he'd just be an expensive clipboard-holder. So how much should they be willing to pay him for a year?

Or, make it a Rodgers clone as the Packers' backup, or a Brees clone as the Saints' backup.

For comparison, Tom Brady signed a 4-year $72 million contract in 2010 (worth $18M/year), and Brees is expected to make $16.4 million this year on the franchise tag.

 

[Couch Potato]

Or the Jets could clone a bunch of Tebows at $5 mil each and put them all over, at QB and RB and FB and WR and TE and maybe a couple of OL spots, and they'd come back from 40-0 fourth quarter deficits to win and there would be mega Tebowing going on, and the Tebowmaniacs and Florida girls would all go crazy with so much love and excitement.

I'm just cloning around. Sorry.

 

[Marvelous]

Having a clone for a backup could lead to some very interesting possibilities.

I suppose Brady isn't worth nearly as much if his clone is his backup. Management could simply tell Brady to take a pay cut or they can cut him, make the clone the starter, and not lose a step. But then, you will need to face Brady whenever your teams play. But a least you know you can match up at the QB position.

High quality backup QBs get around $3M per year. So a clone of a top fight QB should get more than that. Run of the mill backup QBs gets around $1M per year.

 

[meyerj31]

I would think the "backup" gets paid slightly higher than quality backups, so maybe 3-4M/year.

More interesting is that it would affect the primary signal caller. They're not paying $72M/4-years when they have an exact back-up waiting to play. The primary signal caller would likely be traded for first-round picks or what have you...

That's the way the league works. You don't have a top tier talent sitting on the bench. The guy would be traded and other positions fortified. So the scenario itself is asburd, as it would never happen.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think this question is pretty similar to asking "How much would it be worth it to a team to guarantee that their starting QB never gets injured?" I suppose there is some gray area between hurt and injured, but I think that's the gist of the question.

For an elite QB, that's pretty valuable. Let's say we pay our elite starting QB $15M/yr. That number, theoretically, should represent the weighted-average value he will provide over a large distribution of outcomes.

If he gets hurt on the first snap of the first game, he's worth $0/yr. But that maybe has only a 0.001% chance of happening, so that doesn't count for much in factoring his salary. By definition, the best case scenario for the QB has to be greater than $15M/yr, since that is the weighted-average value. Now we are not ensuring best case scenario -- the QB could still slump, or have an off year, or regress, or suffer from poor play by his teammates. We are just ensuring his health.

Related to the question is the issue of risk tolerance. If your goal is to maximize the best possible team, perhaps you want every dollar available elsewhere. Even though ensuring your starter's health would be very valuable, a risk taker might decide to roll the dice and spend that money on an upgrade at CB or TE or wherever. A more conservative thinker would value the insurance much more significantly.

Putting it all together, my gut tells me we're coming in at around $19M/yr. Elite QBs tend to be very good at staying healthy, in part because of their ability to read defenses pre-snap, their pocket presence and related mobility inside the pocket, and a quick release. For a QB like Vick, this is a different issue entirely. But for the Brady/Rodgers/Brees/Manning/Manning types, I think the injury risk is low enough that you don't want to blow too much salary on the insurance. Maybe I'm more of a risk-taker than some. But $4M/yr sounds about right to me.

 

[ZWK]

I suppose Brady isn't worth nearly as much if his clone is his backup. Management could simply tell Brady to take a pay cut or they can cut him, make the clone the starter, and not lose a step. But then, you will need to face Brady whenever your teams play. But a least you know you can match up at the QB position.

More interesting is that it would affect the primary signal caller. They're not paying $72M/4-years when they have an exact back-up waiting to play. The primary signal caller would likely be traded for first-round picks or what have you...

For the purpose of the poll, at least, just treat it as a one-year-only deal where the team has to keep its starter who is already under contract. It's a thought experiment about the value of a backup quarterback, so we're ignoring the fact that no quarterback that good would actually be stuck as a backup.

I think this question is pretty similar to asking "How much would it be worth it to a team to guarantee that their starting QB never gets injured?" I suppose there is some gray area between hurt and injured, but I think that's the gist of the question.

Yes, it's very similar to that. The clone is a little closer to a regular backup, though, since he doesn't give you protection for future years (if the starting QB gets a permanent injury like Pennington or Palmer) and it's still possible for both the starter and the backup to get injured (like Schaub & Leinart). So I'd guess a clone backup is about 80-90% as valuable as making your starter uninjurable.