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How the hell does everyone pick a Kicker? (1 Viewer)

Benny227

Footballguy
I know it's a ridiculous question...but the last two games I have lost by 3 or less points and my K has come up small...so I am trying to get someone and stick with them a while and possibly scrounge up a few extra points each week!

Here are my choices:

Forbath

Dawson

Carpenter

Novak

Folk

Greg-the Leg

Bironas

Thanks!

 

MattFancy

Footballguy
Kicker really does seem to be a crap shoot most weeks. I picked up Alex Henery last week. Figured the Eagles run so many plays a game, they're bound to get into FG from time to time. Got me 4 points.

Another example would be Josh Brown. Looked good the 1st 2 weeks, got shutout last week.

 

lod01

Footballguy
i'd go Bironas from that crew vs the Jets. Followed by Dawson vs STL. Greg The Leg is the best kicker but they can't move the ball yet again.

 

Benny227

Footballguy
Whatever you do, don't follow FBG's recommendation of picking up a kicker, got burned by Bullock.
ME too!!! took him in the draft and got screwed in the first two weeks...then grabbed Greg-the Leg and he got me 1 pts last week!

 

Benny227

Footballguy
i'd go Bironas from that crew vs the Jets. Followed by Dawson vs STL. Greg The Leg is the best kicker but they can't move the ball yet again.
Yea, I have Greg now, but the Offense is weak! so he is just about useless!

 
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DoubleG

Footballguy
Week to week it's a crapshoot. To stop this from getting AC-ed, I'll keep it general.

On draft day, I look for three things in a kicker:

1) A good offense. Teams that lead, or think they will are more likely to "settle" for field goals, either early in the game, or when they are up big.

2) Plays in a dome or warm weather. Two reason: good kicking conditions year around - but especially in FF post season (when weather is bad).

3) Strong leg. In my main league, we get bonuses for long field goals - so I guy like Seabass is worth quite a bit as he is routinely put out there to nail 50+ yarders (unless his QB takes a sack on 3rd down to take him out of range!)

To a lesser extent, same thing on a weekly basis. Which of my kicker's teams is going to be winning? Will weather be a factor? Who's better from distance?

But honestly, if predicting actual NFL games is difficult, how much harder is it to think "This offense is good, but will bog down at about the 30 a few times for good kicking opps." - close to impossible. Just be better everywhere else in your lineup, so it doesn't come down to kicker [/screech!]

 
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socrates

Footballguy
Yeah, Fantasy Football might be better without kickers, IMO. The fact that a PK could decide the outcome of a fantasy game seems ridiculous, when you consider most of us just grab whomever at the end of the draft.

 

steveski

Footballguy
Kicker really does seem to be a crap shoot most weeks. I picked up Alex Henery last week. Figured the Eagles run so many plays a game, they're bound to get into FG from time to time. Got me 4 points.

Another example would be Josh Brown. Looked good the 1st 2 weeks, got shutout last week.
I had the same philosophy but forgot to put him into my Kicker slot on Thursday. Was relieved when I realized it Friday morning since he only got 3 points in my league. Picked up Feely to start and he got me 1 point instead. :doh:

 

iamkoza

Footballguy
Whatever you do, don't follow FBG's recommendation of picking up a kicker, got burned by Bullock.
bullock has gotten plenty of chances.... last year the texan kicker got plenty of chances. bullock was just awful his first two games, sunday he made all 3 kicks... im going to stick with him unless he starts missing kicks again.

 

Nucker101

Footballguy
Another thing is to just play the odds with the higher ranked kickers(whoever is available that's ranked top 10/12 by the expert you trust). For example, a kicker coming off of 2 or 3 straight good weeks probably is due for a letdown, meanwhile a kicker still ranked top 10 or 12 weekly that's had a couple of stinkers in 2 of his last 3 games or 2 straight could finally be in for a better week.

During the FF playoffs later in the season I start to look at which defenses have the best red zone defense and allow a lower percentage of TD's against and try to pickup a kicker that plays in at least a decent offense to go up against that good red zone defense. Weather also is a factor for sure.

 
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HurryUpSundays

Footballguy
Week to week it's a crapshoot. To stop this from getting AC-ed, I'll keep it general.

On draft day, I look for three things in a kicker:

1) A good offense. Teams that lead, or think they will are more likely to "settle" for field goals, either early in the game, or when they are up big.

2) Plays in a dome or warm weather. Two reason: good kicking conditions year around - but especially in FF post season (when weather is bad).

3) Strong leg. In my main league, we get bonuses for long field goals - so I guy like Seabass is worth quite a bit as he is routinely put out there to nail 50+ yarders (unless his QB takes a sack on 3rd down to take him out of range!)

To a lesser extent, same thing on a weekly basis. Which of my kicker's teams is going to be winning? Will weather be a factor? Who's better from distance?

But honestly, if predicting actual NFL games is difficult, how much harder is it to think "This offense is good, but will bog down at about the 30 a few times for good kicking opps." - close to impossible. Just be better everywhere else in your lineup, so it doesn't come down to kicker [/screech!]
But I still spend way too much time deciding on a week to week basis.

 

ebsteelers

Footballguy
usually just chew a piece of gum.. close my eyes and throw it at my board of kickers.. whoever it lands on is my guy..

but seriously doubleg has it right. a good offense thats gonna move the ball, domes are nice, strong leg or playing at mile high if you cant get prater.. dude is cash, too bad the weather there is booty come december.

i was/ still am big on Alex Henery from eagles, late bye week, a good offense at the rate they run plays there should be opporunities.. the problem with eagles is bad weather come November, december

also at the beginning of the year I usually try and get a late bye week kicker.. or after the first few bye weeks try and grab someone who already had a good bye week that fits.

Adam Vintaeri is a good choice this week, colts should be able to move the ball all over the place against jags.

 
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Englishteacher

Footballguy
We roster two kickers in our league. Started Bullock the first two weeks :bag: . Then, started Josh Brown against the Panthers with no secondary :bag: . Picked up Caleb Sturgis for Miami and starting him this week versus NO. Sturgis might be a :shark: y pickup as the Dolphins are putting up points but they are not so good that they are converting everything into TD's.

All in all, K's will drive you nuts!!!!!!!!!

 

zftcg

Footballguy
Agree with the strong-offense/plays-in-dome/big-leg criteria.

The other thing that I usually do is wait a few weeks and look at the highest scoring kicker who's still available on the WW. I had Mason Crosby going on bye, so I checked our scoring and it turns out Caleb Sturgis is the No. 2 kicker after three games. Is there any significance in that? Maybe! (Not a great offense, plays in nice weather, and he's currently tied for the league lead in 50+ FGs, with two). But what the hell, I'll ride him for a few weeks and then re-evaluate.

The key is not to lose any sleep over it. Just pick someone and run with him. It's a total crapshoot, and I agree that they should probably not be included in fantasy.

My favorite is when websites include Ks in their Start/Sit columns. "The offense could get bogged down in this game, leading to lots of opportunities." Whatever, dude.

 

MattFancy

Footballguy
Agree with the strong-offense/plays-in-dome/big-leg criteria.

The other thing that I usually do is wait a few weeks and look at the highest scoring kicker who's still available on the WW. I had Mason Crosby going on bye, so I checked our scoring and it turns out Caleb Sturgis is the No. 2 kicker after three games. Is there any significance in that? Maybe! (Not a great offense, plays in nice weather, and he's currently tied for the league lead in 50+ FGs, with two). But what the hell, I'll ride him for a few weeks and then re-evaluate.

The key is not to lose any sleep over it. Just pick someone and run with him. It's a total crapshoot, and I agree that they should probably not be included in fantasy.

My favorite is when websites include Ks in their Start/Sit columns. "The offense could get bogged down in this game, leading to lots of opportunities." Whatever, dude.
Never understood why kickers were involved in start/sit either. No one has any idea. I saw someone say Vinatieri is good option this week because the Colts play the Jags. Sure it seems like a good matchup. But what happens if the Colts just score TDs and Vinatieri ends up with 5 XPs? You just really have no idea.

 

Judge Smails

Footballguy
I have no idea. I've never been more sure of a kicker than this year with Phil Dawson. Akers was a train wreck, Dawson was extremely accurate in tough conditions in Cleveland, moves over to a great situation with winning team, tough D in SF. Pretty much nothing so far. I'm going to ride him out.

 

Benny227

Footballguy
Agree with the strong-offense/plays-in-dome/big-leg criteria.

The other thing that I usually do is wait a few weeks and look at the highest scoring kicker who's still available on the WW. I had Mason Crosby going on bye, so I checked our scoring and it turns out Caleb Sturgis is the No. 2 kicker after three games. Is there any significance in that? Maybe! (Not a great offense, plays in nice weather, and he's currently tied for the league lead in 50+ FGs, with two). But what the hell, I'll ride him for a few weeks and then re-evaluate.

The key is not to lose any sleep over it. Just pick someone and run with him. It's a total crapshoot, and I agree that they should probably not be included in fantasy.

My favorite is when websites include Ks in their Start/Sit columns. "The offense could get bogged down in this game, leading to lots of opportunities." Whatever, dude.
Agree with the strong-offense/plays-in-dome/big-leg criteria.

The other thing that I usually do is wait a few weeks and look at the highest scoring kicker who's still available on the WW. I had Mason Crosby going on bye, so I checked our scoring and it turns out Caleb Sturgis is the No. 2 kicker after three games. Is there any significance in that? Maybe! (Not a great offense, plays in nice weather, and he's currently tied for the league lead in 50+ FGs, with two). But what the hell, I'll ride him for a few weeks and then re-evaluate.

The key is not to lose any sleep over it. Just pick someone and run with him. It's a total crapshoot, and I agree that they should probably not be included in fantasy.

My favorite is when websites include Ks in their Start/Sit columns. "The offense could get bogged down in this game, leading to lots of opportunities." Whatever, dude.
HAHA! Totally agree...Matthew Berry loves to give K advice in his Love/Hate weekly....ha!

 

Raiderfan32904

Footballguy
Kickers are a total crapshoot. Not worth more than 5 minutes of your time trying to prognosticate them. Might as well try to guess lottery numbers. It's pointless and if you ask the experts, they get humbled by their predictions weekly.

I try to pair up my kicker with my QB, that way I cash in on all scoring opportunities whether they punch it in or stall out. Of course, that means it must be a pretty good QB on a high scoring offense. Getting that combination is easier said than done.

 

Raiderfan32904

Footballguy
I have no idea. I've never been more sure of a kicker than this year with Phil Dawson. Akers was a train wreck, Dawson was extremely accurate in tough conditions in Cleveland, moves over to a great situation with winning team, tough D in SF. Pretty much nothing so far. I'm going to ride him out.
I'm jumping off at the next station. Good luck to you. I've seen enough of the SF offense. I remember in the preseason when Bloom was tweeting that he was targeting Dawson in all his drafts. Goes to show even the experts can't read the tea leaves on the kickers.


 

mphtrilogy

Footballguy
folk has been pretty solid for the jets, but i like indoor and/or high scoring.

janikowski is notoriuosly udnervalued, and they let him kick from everywhere..

from your list i'd go with bironis, greg the leg then folk

 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
Picked up Caleb Sturgis for Miami and starting him this week versus NO. Sturgis might be a :shark: y pickup as the Dolphins are putting up points but they are not so good that they are converting everything into TD's.
Sturgis has not missed a kick yet and has made a couple 50 yarders. Just a matter of him getting chances, and that's a crapshoot for every kicker out there as some of the better offenses will just put up extra points.

 

Rockchild

Footballguy
Kicker really does seem to be a crap shoot most weeks. I picked up Alex Henery last week. Figured the Eagles run so many plays a game, they're bound to get into FG from time to time. Got me 4 points.

Another example would be Josh Brown. Looked good the 1st 2 weeks, got shutout last week.
I was playing against Josh Brown but luckily outscored him with Phil Dawson's 1 point!! Kicker Battle Royal!

 

FDC

Footballguy
I just pick what I think is the best offense when it is time for me to draft a kicker and it has always seemed to work

Picked Denver K this year and he is 1st thru 3 weeks

 

Englishteacher

Footballguy
Kickers are a total crapshoot. Not worth more than 5 minutes of your time trying to prognosticate them. Might as well try to guess lottery numbers. It's pointless and if you ask the experts, they get humbled by their predictions weekly.

I try to pair up my kicker with my QB, that way I cash in on all scoring opportunities whether they punch it in or stall out. Of course, that means it must be a pretty good QB on a high scoring offense. Getting that combination is easier said than done.
Manning/Prater would be the :moneybag: this year.

 

TheBigGronkowski

Footballguy
Chose Prater, based on predictions on the points Denver will score, plus the air is thinner in Denver and he's a good kicker. Very happy with my choice so far. I also look at kickers kicking in Domes at home games and what their average is on 40+ yard attempts.

 
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need2know

Footballguy
I have no idea. I've never been more sure of a kicker than this year with Phil Dawson. Akers was a train wreck, Dawson was extremely accurate in tough conditions in Cleveland, moves over to a great situation with winning team, tough D in SF. Pretty much nothing so far. I'm going to ride him out.
I thought the same thing and took dawson in both my money leagues. 3 strikes and your out. Sf has major issues on off and def. Dumped him for sturgis

 

donkshow

Footballguy
I have no idea. I've never been more sure of a kicker than this year with Phil Dawson. Akers was a train wreck, Dawson was extremely accurate in tough conditions in Cleveland, moves over to a great situation with winning team, tough D in SF. Pretty much nothing so far. I'm going to ride him out.
I feel your pain.
 

Mozeta

Footballguy
[SIZE=10.5pt]Interesting read, but the argument doesn't take into account one small thing and that is NFL football teams have running backs. Just because a QB drives down the field and doesn't get a passing TD, doesn’t mean the kicker for that team will get the FG. Many times it just means the running back gets to punch one in. That would mean neither your QB nor your kicker gets points (I guess the kicker would get 1 for the extra point). Seems like this strategy could pay off or it could be your demise when the team runs for 3 or 4 TD's in a week. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I would need to see some historical stats on this strategy before buying in, but an interesting idea. [/SIZE]

 
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zftcg

Footballguy
Agree with the strong-offense/plays-in-dome/big-leg criteria.

The other thing that I usually do is wait a few weeks and look at the highest scoring kicker who's still available on the WW. I had Mason Crosby going on bye, so I checked our scoring and it turns out Caleb Sturgis is the No. 2 kicker after three games. Is there any significance in that? Maybe! (Not a great offense, plays in nice weather, and he's currently tied for the league lead in 50+ FGs, with two). But what the hell, I'll ride him for a few weeks and then re-evaluate.

The key is not to lose any sleep over it. Just pick someone and run with him. It's a total crapshoot, and I agree that they should probably not be included in fantasy.

My favorite is when websites include Ks in their Start/Sit columns. "The offense could get bogged down in this game, leading to lots of opportunities." Whatever, dude.
Agree with the strong-offense/plays-in-dome/big-leg criteria.

The other thing that I usually do is wait a few weeks and look at the highest scoring kicker who's still available on the WW. I had Mason Crosby going on bye, so I checked our scoring and it turns out Caleb Sturgis is the No. 2 kicker after three games. Is there any significance in that? Maybe! (Not a great offense, plays in nice weather, and he's currently tied for the league lead in 50+ FGs, with two). But what the hell, I'll ride him for a few weeks and then re-evaluate.

The key is not to lose any sleep over it. Just pick someone and run with him. It's a total crapshoot, and I agree that they should probably not be included in fantasy.

My favorite is when websites include Ks in their Start/Sit columns. "The offense could get bogged down in this game, leading to lots of opportunities." Whatever, dude.
HAHA! Totally agree...Matthew Berry loves to give K advice in his Love/Hate weekly....ha!
No he doesn't.

 

zftcg

Footballguy
[SIZE=10.5pt]Interesting read, but the argument doesn't take into account one small thing and that is NFL football teams have running backs. Just because a QB drives down the field and doesn't get a passing TD, doesn’t mean the kicker for that team will get the FG. Many times it just means the running back gets to punch one in. That would mean neither your QB nor your kicker gets points (I guess the kicker would get 1 for the extra point). Seems like this strategy could pay off or it could be your demise when the team runs for 3 or 4 TD's in a week. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I would need to see some historical stats on this strategy before buying in, but an interesting idea. [/SIZE]
:goodposting:

Maybe I've gotten spoiled by all the quant jocks out there, but I expected a more thorough analysis than, "It worked once for Brady/Gostkowski, and also another time for Romo/Bailey". By that logic, I could cite Eli/Josh Brown from Week 3 as evidence that it doesn't work.

 

Raiderfan32904

Footballguy
It's just a theory, and no said it didn't have any holes in it. I remember a couple years ago when Vick had his monster comeback year, I grabbed him off waivers and paired him with Akers. Philly's offense that year was like a pinball machine. Not a one size fits all but more of a one size fits most theory.

 

Warrior

Footballguy
For example, a kicker coming off of 2 or 3 straight good weeks probably is due for a letdown, meanwhile a kicker still ranked top 10 or 12 weekly that's had a couple of stinkers in 2 of his last 3 games or 2 straight could finally be in for a better week.
Worst fantasy advice of the year. Nice work!

Please don't ever visit Las Vegas, you'll go home broke.

"Two straight red numbers....but it all on black!"

 
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zandbak

Footballguy
For example, a kicker coming off of 2 or 3 straight good weeks probably is due for a letdown, meanwhile a kicker still ranked top 10 or 12 weekly that's had a couple of stinkers in 2 of his last 3 games or 2 straight could finally be in for a better week.
Worst fantasy advice of the year. Nice work!
No way, dude. This totally works. I do it in Vegas all the time. Dealer hits blackjack twice in a row? He's probably in for a letdown and will bust next time. I'm actually banned from most Vegas casinos because this amazing strategy is unbeatable!

 

fantasycurse42

Footballguy Jr.
Investing in a kicker 3-4 rounds before the draft is over pays dividends!!

You need to draft a kicker that is on a high scoring offense - Simple logic...

NE, Den, Atl, etc... It makes a lot of sense grabbing one of these guys and never having to think about it.

 

Raiderfan32904

Footballguy
Investing in a kicker 3-4 rounds before the draft is over pays dividends!!

You need to draft a kicker that is on a high scoring offense - Simple logic...

NE, Den, Atl, etc... It makes a lot of sense grabbing one of these guys and never having to think about it.
While you were doing that, I was drafting Joique Bell and Knowshon Moreno. :moneybag:

 

az_prof

Footballguy
I know it's a ridiculous question...but the last two games I have lost by 3 or less points and my K has come up small...so I am trying to get someone and stick with them a while and possibly scrounge up a few extra points each week!

Here are my choices:

Forbath

Dawson

Carpenter

Novak

Folk

Greg-the Leg

Bironas

Thanks!
I look at a few factors:

a) scoring potential of kicker's offense--in general, if a kicker is on a team with a strong offense he scores a lot too.

b) Kicking % and number of kicks over 40 and 50 yards. Most leagues give extra points for long kicks; I want a kicker whose team trusts him to take a lot of 50 yarders and a kicker who can make a high percentage of them.

c) If I am playing a platoon on a weekly basis, then I look for the opposing offense that has scored the least.

d) Late in the year, weather--I want a guy kicking in doors if possible in November and December.

 

zftcg

Footballguy
Caleb sturgis is a shark move.
While I agree in general, not sure about this week in New Orleans. The risk of the falling behind and needing to go for touchdowns in the second half scares me.
True, but in a dome he has the potential to kick some long ones if you get more points for long fgs.
See, this kind of back and forth is exactly why it's silly to predict K performance on a game-by-game basis. More so than any other position in fantasy, success is driven by factors that are entirely beyond the player's control. It's roughly equivalent to analyzing whether the next roulette spin should be red or black. Save your mental energy for more important tasks.

 

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