How To Prosper From The Stupidity of Others (1 Viewer)

[bigunreal]

I've been playing fantasy football now for well over 20 years. One thing I've learned is that most owners, in virtually all leagues, think alike. They rely almost exclusively on the "experts" online and vla ESPN, etc. They value players according to how these "experts," and other owners on forums like this do.

There are always wildly overrated fantasy players. Right now, no one, and I mean no one, is more overrated than Ray Rice. The idea that this fat non-TD scoring machine is placed in the same tier as ADP, Foster and CJ is ridiculous. I would never touch this guy at his consistently high ranking, and in fact would rank him myself in the high teens, especially in standard, non PPR scoring leagues. While Rice is the most overrated RB, hands down, Cedric Benson is a close second. This guy has had less than a full productive season in the NFL- otherwise, he's been a bust. If the Bungles bring virtually any free agent in to compete with him, the free agent will look better. Frank Gore is not a top tier back- look at his stats.

Other over ranked players include Michael Vick, who will clearly revert back to what he was throughout his career, prior to a half season stretch last year, where the drooling announcers pretended he was rewriting sports history. Think for yourselves- Vick has never been even a good NFL QB, and his sole value fantasy-wise lies in those rushing yards and TDs. No way do I waste a top draft pick on this guy. The antithesis of Vick, for much of his career, has been Philip Rivers. Every bit as productive as any QB, and more reliable, Rivers is almost always ranked 4-6 or so on most lists- I'll take him every day a bit later and let others waste a higher pick on QBs no better, or even less valuable, than him.

Brandon Marshall was almost at the level of Ray Rice, in terms of being overhyped, but I think last season and now even more off the field issues have finally made people realize he just doesn't produce as a top receiver. Ocho Cinco was in this category for a long time, as his excessive self-promotion and a near ownership in the NFL Network convinced many fantasy players that he was a top WR, despite his stats. Right now, I will dare to state that Andre Johnson is overrated. Imho, in standard scoring, he is less valuable than Calvin Johnson, Fitzgerald, Nicks, Bowe and several others who are arguably his equal. He is not Jerry Rice, Randy Moss or Marvin Harrison in his prime. In other words, there is no logical reason for him being the consensus #1 WR, unless you just have to accept that because the idiots on ESPN keep saying it.

Here's my list of overrated and underrated players, in terms of where they are generally being drafted:

Overrated

(Players to stay away from, unless they drop significantly lower than their usual draft position:

Ray Rice

Michael Vick

Cedric Benson

Andre Johnson

Frank Gore

Jermichael Finley

Brandon Lloyd

Matt Ryan

"Big" Mike Williams

Jonathan Stewart

James Starks

Dez Bryant

Mark Ingram (not the top rookie- has all the makings of a bust)

Vincent Jackson

Fred Jackson

Wes Welker

DeSean Jackson (not a consistent scorer-not a #1 fantasy WR)

Steve Johnson

Santonio Holmes

Dustin Keller

Lagarette Blount

Matt Cassel

Marshawn Lynch

Maurice Jones-Drew (think he may be about to hit the wall)

Mike Thomas

Reggie Bush (was incredibly overrated forever, someone will still draft him too high)

Aaron Hernandez (was clearly less talented than Gronkowski, but the media kept focusing on him)

Underrated

(Players that are being undervalued, to some degree, by most fantasy owners)

Jamal Charles (will be the #1 back, if his idiot coach just lets him play)

Dwayne Bowe

Peyton Hillis

Jay Cutler

Johnny Knox

BenJarvus Green Ellis

Danny Woodhead

C.J. Spiller

Robert Meacham

Brandon Jacobs

Tashard Choice

Eli Manning

Tim Hightower

Jacoby Ford (could be a real star)

Tim Tebow (if he plays, will be everything the media claimed Vick was, but wasn't)

I have learned to use my own judgment, and mostly ignore the "expert" fantasy rankings. I've been very successful for a long time, winning several championships and making the playoffs almost every year. Last year, I won both of my leagues. Keep in mind, that a fantasy owner can only control so much. While you may recognize how great DeAngelo Williams is, for instance, you can't stop his moronic coach from constantly pulling him and limiting his touches. The same thing obviously goes for Jamal Charles. On the other hand, far less talented backs like Ray Rice, Frank Gore and MJD, for instance, will still put up good (although often overhyped) stats, simply because their coaches feed them the ball constantly.

A truly awful WR like Pierre Garcon will still have some fantasy value, simply because his team inexplicably insists on peppering him with targets. Meanwhile, a potential star like Jordan Shipley can only do so much, because his team inexplicably insists on keeping him in the "slot," instead of putting him outside where his big play potential can be realized. Because of this, my sleepers must be taken with a grain of salt, since so much is dependent upon their coaches, who are largely glorified gym teachers, recognizing their abilities.

SLEEPERS

Golden Tate

Jordan Shipley

Jameson Konz

DeAngelo Williams (if he actually gets the touches other top backs do, he'll be a top 3 RB)

Willis McGahee (if he goes somewhere and actually gets to play- has plenty of tread left)

Kris Durham

Malcolm Floyd

Blair White

Fantasy football is largely luck, and therefore there is only so much any fantasy owner can do to control his team's destiny. However, a willingness to trade, regular free agent moves, and a refusal to unquestionably follow the lead of other owners and "experts" can go a long way to helping you be successful.

 

[identikit]

Your thread title is pretty condescending.

'Stupidity' doesn't necessarily apply to an opinion that differs from yours.

 

[pghrob]

Some of the players you are noting as overrated were deserved early picks based on their performance. While you did not indicate their ADP, you give the impression they are being drafted way too early. I would think that your methods involve some level of bias, as some of these guys based on performance, seem to justify their rankings. Just look at their PosRanks and VBDs.

I do not think this is PPR scoring used in the below rankings, but these guys while some have had drop offs last year, seem certainly within the realm of possibility of delivering top fantasy performances this year - especially in PPR scoring.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnCh01.htm#fantasy::none

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/VickMi00.htm#fantasy::none

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MarsBr00.htm#fantasy::none (2 #9 finishes)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnAn02.htm#fantasy::none (# 1 and #2 finish within last 3 years...though did drop to #9 last year).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RiceRa00.htm#fantasy::none (Was #4 in 2009 and dropped to #11 last year)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GoreFr00.htm#fantasy::none (Maybe the hip surgery has you concerned, but you can't argue that he is deserving a high ADP. You wrote he is not a top tier back and to look at his stats. What am I missing? In 2009, he was top 5 and he was on his way to another great year last year when he was hurt after 11 games.

I dunno, it just seems you are discounting previous performance in an odd sort of fashion. While that is not guarantee of future results, it is not as if looking at these guys as top players at their positions is a miscast.

Maybe your point be better understood if you included where you think they should be drafted vs. what their actual ADP is.

Edited to make better grammatical and sentence structure in certain areas. And to include that I can appreciate bias in every person's opinion, but bias is typically something to try and account for when seeking objectivity.

 

[cr8f]

People prospered from mine last year, dropping Vick and Blount when both looked like non-starters.

I would add Jordy Nelson to the overrated as he is rising higher and higher on sleeper lists before James Jones and Driver's situations are determined. Jones could be back if he doesn't get a starter nod.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Other over ranked players include Michael Vick, who will clearly revert back to what he was throughout his career, prior to a half season stretch last year, where the drooling announcers pretended he was rewriting sports history. Think for yourselves- Vick has never been even a good NFL QB, and his sole value fantasy-wise lies in those rushing yards and TDs. No way do I waste a top draft pick on this guy. The antithesis of Vick, for much of his career, has been Philip Rivers. Every bit as productive as any QB, and more reliable, Rivers is almost always ranked 4-6 or so on most lists- I'll take him every day a bit later and let others waste a higher pick on QBs no better, or even less valuable, than him.

What evidence do you have that Vick will revert back? Last year he had a 62.6% completion rate and he threw the more passes than he ever had before in his career. Before that his best had been 56.4% back in 2004. Was it 12 games of flukiness last year, or a sign of Vick becoming a better QB? The legwork will be there and if you add to that a much better passing QB, he has the ability to be #1 by far.I agree with you that Rivers is safer and can be had maybe a round later in drafts, but Vick can potentially win FF Championships by himself.

 

[squistion]

I've been playing fantasy football now for well over 20 years. One thing I've learned is that most owners, in virtually all leagues, think alike.

You had me there - unfortunately that was about the only thing you said in your diatribe that I agreed with. There does tend to be a herd mentality in FF leagues, particularly in rookie drafts this time of year and rankings do tend to be uniform.However, I also do my own rankings and they generally conform with the consensus. Somehow I don't believe it is stupidity on my part that I come up with the same conclusions as others who have viewed the data, but you are entitled to your opinion.

Many of your examples seem to undercut your argument, rather than bolster it. For instance I don't see BJGE and Woodhead as underrated after NE drafted Vereen and Ridley. And I can't take Hightower that seriously with Williams and Wells in the mix. Also your overrated group looks fine until you start giving your underlying reasons, which makes me question how many games of these players you have actually seen (such as with Vincent Jackson)

In any event, if you are successful as you claim, that only proves that one can win going against the group think, not that most everyone else in FF are a bunch of dummies.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I agree with some of those, but with so many listed that's not hard to do. I can throw darts too.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

There are always wildly overrated fantasy players. Right now, no one, and I mean no one, is more overrated than Ray Rice. The idea that this fat non-TD scoring machine is placed in the same tier as ADP, Foster and CJ is ridiculous.

Fat?Ray Rice is a player that depends on your leagues format. IN ppr leagues he deserves to be in that tier. In non-ppr leagues he should not be. As far as TDs go, if the Ravens release Magahee, Rice's TD numbers may go up. He's a capable goal-line back, but his coahces have decided to use other options (that are also more than capable) to save some wear and tear on Rice.If you don't think that Rice is a talented back (perhaps a notch below, ADP and CJ, but every bit as talented as Foster) - then I question your abilities to assess talent despite your multiple championships against the "stupid" (your word not mine) owners you play against.

 

[Shane Falco]

Impressive entrance



I disagree with almost all of that but I only play PPR

 

[ChromeWeasel]

I've been playing fantasy football now for well over 20 years.

I wonder how many championships you've won. If you've been playing for 20 years and you've won a championship or two then your advice isnt terribly valuable.Anyway, your list is pretty pathetic without some references. Take Brandon Lloyd for example. A lot of knuckleheads keep calling him 'overrated'. Yet his ADP is around the 20th receiver taken. That means if he contributes to the level of a low-end #2 receiver, he's lives up to his draft position. Anything better than that and you make out on the deal. If he's anywhere near his levels last year, he's an absolute steal. Is that what you call overrated, or are you just not paying any attention to ADP? Your ranking for "Big" Mike Williams should be viewed in the same light. He's being drafted as a WR 4/5. If he produces WR 2 numbers again, he's a draft BARGAIN. Yet you have him listed as overrated. I'd wager that your analysis has nothing to do with actual facts. You just dont like certain players, and are suggesting that they are overrated because you dont like them.My guess is that you think you're way smarter than you really are, and you threw up some names you like, some names you dont like, and wrapped it up into a condescending post. Most vets around here do a lot more legwork than that. They base their analysis on real data, check the ADP of players, and compare that with historical trends. You really need to re-assess your list based on ADP, add your own projections for what you assume players will produce, and then look at your own list again. I bet that you'll change some of your list around once you do some more research and put numbers to the names.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Because of this, my sleepers must be taken with a grain of salt, since so much is dependent upon their coaches, who are largely glorified gym teachers, recognizing their abilities.

I kind of missed this line the first time.

 

[loose circuits]

I've been playing fantasy football now for well over 20 years.

I wonder how many championships you've won. If you've been playing for 20 years and you've won a championship or two then your advice isnt terribly valuable.Anyway, your list is pretty pathetic without some references. Take Brandon Lloyd for example. A lot of knuckleheads keep calling him 'overrated'. Yet his ADP is around the 20th receiver taken. That means if he contributes to the level of a low-end #2 receiver, he's lives up to his draft position. Anything better than that and you make out on the deal. If he's anywhere near his levels last year, he's an absolute steal. Is that what you call overrated, or are you just not paying any attention to ADP? Your ranking for "Big" Mike Williams should be viewed in the same light. He's being drafted as a WR 4/5. If he produces WR 2 numbers again, he's a draft BARGAIN. Yet you have him listed as overrated. I'd wager that your analysis has nothing to do with actual facts. You just dont like certain players, and are suggesting that they are overrated because you dont like them.My guess is that you think you're way smarter than you really are, and you threw up some names you like, some names you dont like, and wrapped it up into a condescending post. Most vets around here do a lot more legwork than that. They base their analysis on real data, check the ADP of players, and compare that with historical trends. You really need to re-assess your list based on ADP, add your own projections for what you assume players will produce, and then look at your own list again. I bet that you'll change some of your list around once you do some more research and put numbers to the names.

I wish Lloyd was overrated, cant' trade him for WR3 value in my dynasty league.Seems like typically, I won 2 leagues so now I'm gonna beat my chest and think my opinion/philosophy is the best...I do like some of this guys picks for the underrated, but to write off some of those other guys as 'overrated' when you don't exactly know where they will fall in your draft is kinda foolish

 

[higgins]

Two wasted minutes I wish I could take back...

 

[habsfan]

There are always wildly overrated fantasy players. Right now, no one, and I mean no one, is more overrated than Ray Rice. The idea that this fat non-TD scoring machine is placed in the same tier as ADP, Foster and CJ is ridiculous.

Fat?Ray Rice is a player that depends on your leagues format. IN ppr leagues he deserves to be in that tier. In non-ppr leagues he should not be. As far as TDs go, if the Ravens release Magahee, Rice's TD numbers may go up. He's a capable goal-line back, but his coahces have decided to use other options (that are also more than capable) to save some wear and tear on Rice.If you don't think that Rice is a talented back (perhaps a notch below, ADP and CJ, but every bit as talented as Foster) - then I question your abilities to assess talent despite your multiple championships against the "stupid" (your word not mine) owners you play against.

"Underrated" and sleeper picks really only help you when they're combined with "boring" (and safe, reliable) ones, especially early on. In PPR I will take Rice any time because I feel he's a low "bust risk". Hitting home runs in later rounds doesn't help much when they're just replacing early picks that didn't work out.

 

[drater]

I've been playing fantasy football now for well over 20 years.

I wonder how many championships you've won. If you've been playing for 20 years and you've won a championship or two then your advice isnt terribly valuable.

This. I've won 3 out of the last 8 in my main money league (plus a few more scattered around lesser leagues) and feel like that ratio sucks, this isn't baseball where .375 makes you an all star. I want to hear from the guys who've dropped runs of 5-6-7 championships in a row, in Shark leagues. That's the insight I lurk these threads for.

 

[loose circuits]

I've been playing fantasy football now for well over 20 years.

I wonder how many championships you've won. If you've been playing for 20 years and you've won a championship or two then your advice isnt terribly valuable.

This. I've won 3 out of the last 8 in my main money league (plus a few more scattered around lesser leagues) and feel like that ratio sucks, this isn't baseball where .375 makes you an all star. I want to hear from the guys who've dropped runs of 5-6-7 championships in a row, in Shark leagues. That's the insight I lurk these threads for.

that would be an extreme outlier regardless of skill unless you were playing with knuckleheads. There is just too much luck/chance involved for anyone to do that

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I've been playing fantasy football now for well over 20 years.

I wonder how many championships you've won. If you've been playing for 20 years and you've won a championship or two then your advice isnt terribly valuable.

This. I've won 3 out of the last 8 in my main money league (plus a few more scattered around lesser leagues) and feel like that ratio sucks, this isn't baseball where .375 makes you an all star. I want to hear from the guys who've dropped runs of 5-6-7 championships in a row, in Shark leagues. That's the insight I lurk these threads for.

3 out of 8 is actually a combination of both excellent and lucky. The goal is obviously to win championships but that needs a lot of playoff luck. I judge myself based on how good my All-Play Record is. If that is consistently top 3 in my league then I will win my fair share of titles.

 

[ChromeWeasel]

I've been playing fantasy football now for well over 20 years.

I wonder how many championships you've won. If you've been playing for 20 years and you've won a championship or two then your advice isnt terribly valuable.

This. I've won 3 out of the last 8 in my main money league (plus a few more scattered around lesser leagues) and feel like that ratio sucks, this isn't baseball where .375 makes you an all star. I want to hear from the guys who've dropped runs of 5-6-7 championships in a row, in Shark leagues. That's the insight I lurk these threads for.

I won 5 in a row, and 6 total out of 11 years. That's all from the same 12-team league. You need a good mix of draft skill, matchups luck/skill, and savvy transactions. My thoughtsrafting is about more than who is generating high stats for the upcoming season. You need to know how valuable a player is relative to other players in his position. That's address via league scoring and how many starter slots are available. And you want to guage the player's value based on his expected draft position. Once the scoring starts you need to work the waiver wire and make good choices for your starters. There's a lot of luck involved in the head-to-head matchups, but the skill is in selecting the best starters. You also need to re-evaluate all your players correctly. Drop the dead weight on your roster to pick up and comers off the wire. But you have to balance that by not giving up on the players that just need time to come around. That's a delicate balancing act, but it's key to the championship. You've got to pick up on the trends by midseason, predict which players have fantasy playoff schedules that are significant, and make as many of the right moves to take advantage of your predictions.That's not really new information to any veteran FF guy. My take is that the mid-season stuff is more important than anything else. We all basically share the same draft info anyway. I'd estimate that transactions and roster choices accounted for the majority of my championships.

 

[Flying Elvis]

I've been playing fantasy football now for well over 20 years.

I wonder how many championships you've won. If you've been playing for 20 years and you've won a championship or two then your advice isnt terribly valuable.Anyway, your list is pretty pathetic without some references. Take Brandon Lloyd for example. A lot of knuckleheads keep calling him 'overrated'. Yet his ADP is around the 20th receiver taken. That means if he contributes to the level of a low-end #2 receiver, he's lives up to his draft position. Anything better than that and you make out on the deal. If he's anywhere near his levels last year, he's an absolute steal. Is that what you call overrated, or are you just not paying any attention to ADP? Your ranking for "Big" Mike Williams should be viewed in the same light. He's being drafted as a WR 4/5. If he produces WR 2 numbers again, he's a draft BARGAIN. Yet you have him listed as overrated. I'd wager that your analysis has nothing to do with actual facts. You just dont like certain players, and are suggesting that they are overrated because you dont like them.

My guess is that you think you're way smarter than you really are, and you threw up some names you like, some names you dont like, and wrapped it up into a condescending post. Most vets around here do a lot more legwork than that. They base their analysis on real data, check the ADP of players, and compare that with historical trends. You really need to re-assess your list based on ADP, add your own projections for what you assume players will produce, and then look at your own list again. I bet that you'll change some of your list around once you do some more research and put numbers to the names.

This. There are plenty of names to cherry pick from that list, but it's pointless to do so since no ADP is even noted. ESPN gets plenty of mention and ire (understandable, since ESPN sucks) but I can't even find their ADP. Maybe it's buried, maybe it's "insider" or maybe I'm one of the poor, lowly, stupid owners in question, but it is impossible to evaluate the list of players provided w/o ADP info.

All I am left with is the desire to post an image like this one.

 

[JuSt CuZ]

I disagree with almost everything the OP said. However, I do think most put a little too much stock in what the "experts" say.

 

[dickey moe]

Shtick?

 

[Sabertooth]

If I could figure out a way to prosper from James Harrison's stupidity, I'd be rich.

 

[drater]

I'd estimate that transactions and roster choices accounted for the majority of my championships.

I'd have to agree with that. I cost myself two other championships by overreacting on early season trends one year and being late last year (left Hillis on the WW for the first two weeks because I didn't want to give up on Spillers "upside"...stupid).I've always maintained it was 1/3 drafting, 1/3 management (trading, WW and sit/start) and 1/3 luck (injuries mostly).

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

It is true that many overvalue players due to consensus, and this can lead to opportunities to benefit.

Another way to benefit is to find the guys that entirely discount consensus rankings (also known as wisdom of crowds) and overvalue "their" favorite players and trade with them.

It isn't very simple to find the too high or too low valued players, and certainly not on the scale presented in the original post. However intelligent we are, we are all wrong often.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Ocho Cinco was in this category for a long time, as his excessive self-promotion and a near ownership in the NFL Network convinced many fantasy players that he was a top WR, despite his stats.

5 straight years of being a top 10 WR. 3 of those top 5. The knock on him was always it'd come in 3 or 4 huge games instead of consistent production, but please compare his career VBD to other guys of his generation and rethink that "despite his stats" part.

 

[gethugefast1]

I've been playing fantasy football now for well over 20 years.

I wonder how many championships you've won. If you've been playing for 20 years and you've won a championship or two then your advice isnt terribly valuable.

This. I've won 3 out of the last 8 in my main money league (plus a few more scattered around lesser leagues) and feel like that ratio sucks, this isn't baseball where .375 makes you an all star. I want to hear from the guys who've dropped runs of 5-6-7 championships in a row, in Shark leagues. That's the insight I lurk these threads for.

I won 5 in a row, and 6 total out of 11 years. That's all from the same 12-team league. You need a good mix of draft skill, matchups luck/skill, and savvy transactions. My thoughtsrafting is about more than who is generating high stats for the upcoming season. You need to know how valuable a player is relative to other players in his position. That's address via league scoring and how many starter slots are available. And you want to guage the player's value based on his expected draft position. Once the scoring starts you need to work the waiver wire and make good choices for your starters. There's a lot of luck involved in the head-to-head matchups, but the skill is in selecting the best starters. You also need to re-evaluate all your players correctly. Drop the dead weight on your roster to pick up and comers off the wire. But you have to balance that by not giving up on the players that just need time to come around. That's a delicate balancing act, but it's key to the championship. You've got to pick up on the trends by midseason, predict which players have fantasy playoff schedules that are significant, and make as many of the right moves to take advantage of your predictions.That's not really new information to any veteran FF guy. My take is that the mid-season stuff is more important than anything else. We all basically share the same draft info anyway. I'd estimate that transactions and roster choices accounted for the majority of my championships.

I've won 3 of last 4 seasons. My opinion on reason why?... Other league owner just don't understand how valuable Running Backs are with our league format. Plus, we are a 10 team league with 14 players total per team, so there is an abundance of value on waivers which I am always the most active each and every year.

 

[bigunreal]

First, let me apologize for using the word "stupidity" in my title. I should have used something else. I guess "conventional thinking" might be a better way to describe it. A reluctance to think outside the box.

Thanks for the interest. Most of you are proving my point again. Groupthink always reigns in fantasy football. To those of you who were wondering about ADPs, I purposefully left those out because frankly I don't pay attention to them, other than to look at lists and posts that recount where these guys are being drafted. I can also tell, for instance, by the near consensus fantasy owners have about a guy like Ray Rice, when he simply isn't a top tier back, other than in ppr leagues, that he is being drafted way, way too early. Look at how one poster reacted to my calling him fat. He is fat, just like MJD is.

Winning championships in fantasy football is hard, and requires a lot of luck. However, making the playoffs and putting yourself in a chance to win one is a bit easier for an owner to control. I've won eight championships over those 20 years in three different leagues, and lost in the championship game another six times. However, I've only missed the playoffs in any league five times in 21 years. I had Steve Young for years, and was only able to win one championship with him, because the biggest stars on the best teams are often rested during the championship game weeks. On the other hand, I won one championship with guys like Trent Dilfer and Chris Fua-mala Tala, and another with Ron Dayne and Matt Jones.

Again, I didn't mean to come off as arrogant and condescending. I've profited from the group think mentality in fantasy football, so I don't even know why I care. We'll see what happens- maybe having faith in guys like Hillis and Bowe, and hating guys like Rice, Vick and Benson will blow up in my face. Odds are I will make the playoffs in both of my leagues this season. Winning a championship will be much more dependent upon luck, of course, and I'll need that as much as any owner.

 

[sihaokills]

Frank Gore is overrated!!!???

 

[[icon]]

Wait... so THIS is the guy who has THE unique take on Fantasy Football that allows him to out maneuver Joe 6-pack and dominate his league year in and year out?

Got it.

I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter sir!

 

[[icon]]

Frank Gore is overrated!!!???

EVERYONE'S overrated.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I can also tell, for instance, by the near consensus fantasy owners have about a guy like Ray Rice, when he simply isn't a top tier back, other than in ppr leagues, that he is being drafted way, way too early. Look at how one poster reacted to my calling him fat. He is fat, just like MJD is.

Show me in which picture Ray Rice looks fat to you. http://www.google.com/search?q=Ray+Rice+Images&hl=en&biw=1280&bih=841&prmd=ivnso&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=kEIfTqfrFOjm0QHw6amwAw&ved=0CCAQsAQ

 

[hotboyz]

So this is the ray rice you call fat?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

So this is the ray rice you call fat?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftFqxQczIeg&feature=youtube_gdata_player

the strategically placed towel covers up all of his fat rolls.

 

[hotboyz]

Dr octopus too funny but as u can see he raises his arm makes a muscle u can see the six pack lol not a bodybuilder but far from fat

 

[Shane Falco]

Thanks for the interest. Most of you are proving my point again. Groupthink always reigns in fantasy football. Again, I didn't mean to come off as arrogant and condescending.

I like your shtick, its keeping me entertained

 

[Jercules]

Thanks for the interest. Most of you are proving my point again. Groupthink always reigns in fantasy football. Again, I didn't mean to come off as arrogant and condescending.

Best way to avoid 'groupthink'? Make sure the group wants no part of you.

 

[shortbow]

Your thread title is pretty condescending.'Stupidity' doesn't necessarily apply to an opinion that differs from yours.

Pretty much this.I wanna almost gaurantee that Rice has a better year than Charles this year but there are so many intangibles involved, thats how close they are in fantasy value. Charles is a close 2nd to whoever the most overrated back is, maybe Darren Mcfadden, but either way its just an opinion, I agree with some of your post but most of it is drivel. In standard Rice is top 10, in PPR Rice is top 4.Its baffeling some of these players on your over rated list: - MJD, Really? Dude hasnt had a season with less than 1,100 total yards and hes avg 1,500.- Ray Rice. Again, Really? Including his rookie season in which he only started 4 games, hes avg 220 carries a season and 60 receptions... (hurr derp, but he only has 14 TDs in 3 seasons, in time)- Dez Bryant. Hes played one season, im not a cowboys fan, but Dez is clearly more talented than Miles.- Wes Welker. I guess you play in a standard scoring league? Three consecutive 111+ reception years with 1,160+ yds, followed by a 86 rec and 850 yd season with 7 tds.- Steve Johnson. Only started one game prior to 2010, had only caught 12 passes in the 2 years prior to 2010. But in 2010 he caught 82 balls for 1,073 yds and 10 TDs, hes a legit #1 WR in the NFL and should be rated HIGHER than he is.- Andre Johnson. Thats it.Also, LMFAO - Dwayne Bowe underrated.

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

One thing I can agree with you on is that with the proper research you can gain a sufficient advantage to place highly in just about any league on a consistent basis. In my leagues there are always a few owners who are scrambling to print out online cheat sheets right before the draft and these are the owners who consistently play poorly.

I think where the 'lucky' part of fantasy football comes into play is when it comes to injuries. You can draft the best team in the world, but if your players get injured it is all for naught. But again, good preparation means your roster should be deep enough to weather these storms. I truly believe that fantasy championships are won in the 2nd half of the fantasy draft.

In terms of 'all owners thinking alike', I certainly agree this is true when it comes to sleeper. Subjectively I think most owners are so concerned with being the guy who picks the big diamond in the rough that they pass up safe, solid, consistent producers. The odds of picking THE diamond in the rough each year is a big long-shot, and I'd rather stick with proven play-makers.

 

[Black]

I agree with the concept of going against the grain. It's the only way to take chances to differentiate yourself from the 'rest' of your league. I listen to a couple of the ESPN and CBS podcasts to get an idea of conventional thinking.

That being said, those sources are not devoid of useful content. They dish out alot of good stats and trends, and you are fine if you can read between the lines a bit (and listen to advice here in the SP and on the FBG Audible podcast).

The only think lacking from the original post is the reference. Overvalued and undervalued implies some benchmark (and is also dependent on league rules, etc). I think you have to be very specific about your lists. Could Ray Rice be overvalued if taken in the top 5? Yes. In the second round of a PPR draft? Probably not. Received in a trade in a Dynasty PPR league for MJD? You might do that if you worry about MJD bone on bone in his knee.

So, I think you need to frame the argument a bit more, using some benchmarks. Maybe you won't touch a guy, but most of us would take Vick in the 6th round.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

How does Mark Ingram have all the makings of a bust? Please elaborate.

 

[comfortably numb]

How does Mark Ingram have all the makings of a bust? Please elaborate.

He is fat?

 

[bigunreal]

You guys are too funny. The man love for Ray Rice is hilarious. I guess I hit a nerve with the "fat" comment. Sorry, but he looks fat to me. He certainly doesn't look like any classical ideal of an athlete. If he's not your husband, why would you become so outraged? If someone called a player I admire- say DeAngelo Williams- fat, I surely wouldn't be offended. No one's calling youfat.

As I noted, fantasy football, at least in terms of winning championships, is largely luck. Those week 16 and 17 games simply are a crap shoot, because the best players often don't play, and you need the best players in order to get there. I feel confident, for instance, that if we'd had our championship games in wee 14, say, in all the leagues I've been in, that I would have won twice as many championships.

I'll address a few points. Yes, Frank Gore is overrated. I value TDs more than the rest of you, I guess. Let's look at two players- Gore and Peyton Hillis. Last season, in his first as a starter, Hillis had more rushing yards than Gore has EVER had, except for one season- 2006. Hillis had 13 total TDs, a figure Gore has matched ONE time in his illustrious career. He had one huge yardage season, but only scored 9 total TDs that year. He has had ONE double digit TD season in his career. If you think this is the work of a top back, then go ahead and draft him ahead of mulitple backs who will perform better than him. If Hillis is given the opportunity, he will outproduce Gore by a good margin this year. Yet, the "experts," and thus most on this forum, feel Hillis is going to slide. Why? In his only season as a starter, he produced better overall numbers (yards and TDs) than Gore-who you claim is not overrated- ever has. How does this kind of thinking work? Gore- not overrated, Hillis- will not produce.

As for the decidedly non-fat Ray Rice, he has managed 14 CAREER TDs, or one more than the "bust" Hillis had in his first season as a starter. Again, you guys go ahead and draft Rice as the #5 RB, or whatever he is in ADP at this point. That's a joke- he has not been, is not now, and will never be in the same category with the true top backs. And I will expect the bold poster who proclaimed that Rice will have a better season than Jamal Charles to come back to this forum at the end of the season and post both their stats. Barring injury, and the further head-scratching lunacy of Todd Haley, this will never happen. Charles is the most talented back in the league, bar none, and will outproduce Rice even with far fewer touches.

If you don't think Dwayne Bowe is underrated, then how do you explain why the top TD producer last season is not even in the top 5 WRs (and I've seen him ranked at #20 or worse in some lists)? I would take him over non-TD machine Andre Johnson any day. If he isn't being undervalued, I don't know what the meaning of the word is.

This is a forum, and I wanted to produce some food for thought. I don't take this stuff seriously, because so much of it is beyond my control, or the control of any fantasy owner. I can't make John Fox wake up and give DeAngelo Williams more touches (and geez, now he'll be under his wing again in Denver!) I can't make the Colts bench (or cut) the horrific Garcon and put Austin Collie outside, where he will instantly be one of the NFL's top WRs. I can't make the Bengals do the same thing with Jordan Shipley.

We can, however, make regular free agent moves, realize most rookie fantasy draft picks are wildly overvalued, not be afraid to trade and use our own judgment when watching thees players, instead of unquestionably following the advice of Matthew Berry and co. Again, no harm meant here, and I am sorry for using the word "stupidity' in the title of this thread. I posted my real record in real leagues- I could have claimed I've won at least one league all 21 years. I think I've done well going against the grain. All any of us can do is make the playoffs, and put our teams in a position to win. After that, it's largely luck.

 

[bigunreal]

As for Mark Ingram, he is woefully slow. Many FBs run faster than him. He is not a good receiver. I don't think Pierre Thomas or Ivory is that great, but imho they have more talent than Ingram does. Now, the Saints have a great line, so if they commit to Ingram full time, he may do well. Again, I can't control that. History suggests that Payton will rotate his backs, no matter what.

So, factoring in his one dimensional ability, his extremely slow 40 time, and the history of his coach in terms of how he distributes carries, I think that it's very likely that Ingram will severely underproduce. If someone offered me virtually any other productive player in the league, I would trade the #1 pick in a rookie draft.

 

[dickey moe]

Ray "Muffintop" Rice

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

As I noted, fantasy football, at least in terms of winning championships, is largely luck. Those week 16 and 17 games simply are a crap shoot, because the best players often don't play, and you need the best players in order to get there. I feel confident, for instance, that if we'd had our championship games in wee 14, say, in all the leagues I've been in, that I would have won twice as many championships.

No league worth its salt should hold its championship in week 17. For reasons you have stated, it's always best to hold your championship in week 15.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I agree with 95% of what you said. However...Dez is clearly more talented than Miles Austin? Sorry but I missed that memo and actually think Miles is more talented than Dez. Otherwise like I said I agree with everything, actually almost. I do think Bowe is underrated on this forum and to me it is groupthink of fbg.

Your thread title is pretty condescending.'Stupidity' doesn't necessarily apply to an opinion that differs from yours.

Pretty much this.I wanna almost gaurantee that Rice has a better year than Charles this year but there are so many intangibles involved, thats how close they are in fantasy value. Charles is a close 2nd to whoever the most overrated back is, maybe Darren Mcfadden, but either way its just an opinion, I agree with some of your post but most of it is drivel. In standard Rice is top 10, in PPR Rice is top 4.Its baffeling some of these players on your over rated list: - MJD, Really? Dude hasnt had a season with less than 1,100 total yards and hes avg 1,500.- Ray Rice. Again, Really? Including his rookie season in which he only started 4 games, hes avg 220 carries a season and 60 receptions... (hurr derp, but he only has 14 TDs in 3 seasons, in time)- Dez Bryant. Hes played one season, im not a cowboys fan, but Dez is clearly more talented than Miles.- Wes Welker. I guess you play in a standard scoring league? Three consecutive 111+ reception years with 1,160+ yds, followed by a 86 rec and 850 yd season with 7 tds.- Steve Johnson. Only started one game prior to 2010, had only caught 12 passes in the 2 years prior to 2010. But in 2010 he caught 82 balls for 1,073 yds and 10 TDs, hes a legit #1 WR in the NFL and should be rated HIGHER than he is.- Andre Johnson. Thats it.Also, LMFAO - Dwayne Bowe underrated.

 

[Instinctive]

This schtick is awesome. Fat guys who amass 2k total yards at RB.



I love it.

 

[comfortably numb]

As I noted, fantasy football, at least in terms of winning championships, is largely luck. Those week 16 and 17 games simply are a crap shoot, because the best players often don't play, and you need the best players in order to get there. I feel confident, for instance, that if we'd had our championship games in wee 14, say, in all the leagues I've been in, that I would have won twice as many championships.

As smart as you are, you were not able to secure enough valuable backups for weeks 14-16 to assure you would have won twice as many championships in the past 20 years?I don't think anyone is offended, but you just come off as an a tad dooshy, and calling Ray Rice/MJD fat, just seems bias and uninformed.

I love how Rice a "fat non-TD scoring machine" is over rated.

Maybe the low TD's are because coaches had Mcclain and Mcghee steal GL carries? No, that just makes him fat, and over valued.

But yet guys like Shipley and Charles suffer, because their idiotic coaches don't realize the talent they have.

I agree with your premise.

Every year that are players that are being over/undervalued.

I happen to disagree with Bowe/Hillis.

They are undervalued for you, I personally think they are overvalued.

TD's are hard to predict for me, so when Bowe gets 15 and Hillis 13, seemingly out of nowhere, I tend to think it will be difficult for them to achieve similar numbers.

Generally speaking, some of your overvalued list will be accurate, some of your undervalued list will be accurate. much like many of the "experts" you claim are leading FF owners down a path of stupidity.

 

[sihaokills]

I think we will laugh at this thread by the end of next season

 

[comfortably numb]

I think we will laugh at this thread by the end of next season

This thread will be the most bumped thread of 2011, sadly.I applaud people for putting their shots out there for everyone to see and agree/laugh/ridicule/etcBut when you do it in a way, where you condescendingly put yourself above others, you are setting yourself up to be mocked