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How's your housing market? (1 Viewer)

That is not what I was suggesting.  I was just trying to say that:

1. These heartwarming letters are BS.

2. In the super rare case (1% is what I stated) in which a buyer has something that might be worth listening to, I would want to meet that person / interested party.

Nothing more than that.  

Agree about moving on, just wish you didn't twist what I said and then edit my post like that, not cool.  But all's well, I enjoy seeing what you have to say and sorry for any miscommunication.  👍

 
Senor Schmutzig said:
Is anyone else getting unsolicited calls from real estate agents indicating that they are calling on behalf of their client and asking if you're willing to sell? I have received 3-4 of these in the past couple of months. Not sure if their client is a real buyer or an investor, but it's interesting how proactive they are being. 

The last guy I spoke to mentioned that he assumed that we wouldn't be interested in selling because we had a homestead exemption on the property but he wanted to call anyway because his client specifically asked about our house. 

Could be BS, but it's good to feel wanted. LOL 
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I get at least a text message a week indicating an offer to buy or house. Telephone call from realtors about every three weeks.

 
Harry Frogfish said:
Realtor gave us a letter from a buyer a few years ago.  Didn't read a word of it.  

If someone really has something to say or convey that's actually meaningful, the very least they can do is meet with you and say (explain) it to your face.  Make some kind of effort, beyond trying to find some heartstrings to tug at somewhere (wife, grandparents, etc.) in the deal.

That stuff is such bull####, 99% of the time.

And please don't say it works.  If it did, you took advantage.
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Never good to have buyer and seller have direct conversations before closing, unless FSBO.

 
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eoMMan said:
Another housing bubble?

I think “housing bubble” talk is silly but the article has a great chart showing the mortgage to income price ratio over the years. As of April, it’s creeping back over 30%.
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I really hate that people have taken the word "Bubble" and because they don't know what the definition of one is, call everything possible a bubble to the point the definition of it has changed.  People are really stupid.

 
Getzlaf15 said:
I really hate that people have taken the word "Bubble" and because they don't know what the definition of one is, call everything possible a bubble to the point the definition of it has changed.  People are really stupid.
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“People have made a lot of money off of something I missed out on therefore it must be a bubble”

 
Home on our street went on the market last Thursday. About a dozen showings that I know of. Went under contract yesterday $50k over list. Sellers bought a house a few houses away on same street about 5 months ago and remodeled it.

 
My neighborhood is still loco. 4,800 sf with no pool on the lake was listed for $1.5M about a month ago. My friend and I laughed because we thought it was overpriced by $400-500K. It went pending in 2 weeks. A week later, after the contract must have fallen through, it's back on the market for $1.75M. I laughed again. It's now pending again.

On a different topic, my wife and visited some new home models to get interior decorating ideas. I struck up a conversation with the sales person who didn't put much effort into showing us around. Basically the implied attitude is if you want it, you'll buy it regardless of how you're treated.

When I asked about their current inventory he said they're waiting on windows to complete 19 homes (apparently that's a supply bottleneck for some higher end builders). He also said that if we wanted to be put on the waiting list, they'd notify us when something became available and the customer with the highest bid gets the home. So basically new home builders are adopting a realtor model.

 
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Captain Cranks said:
He also said that if we wanted to be put on the waiting list, they'd notify us when something became available and the customer with the highest bid gets the home. So basically new home builders are adopting a realtor model.
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My mom just moved into a new house and their builder now just builds spec homes and sell them as is. Makes sense if I’m a builder. Why deal with homeowners stopping by to see the shoddy work when you can just slap it al together without any oversight and it will sell anyway. 
 

Another factor is the builders have learned that in this market the houses they agree to on paper or worth significantly more than the contract price they agreed to prior to construction.

 
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Getzlaf15 said:
I really hate that people have taken the word "Bubble" and because they don't know what the definition of one is, call everything possible a bubble to the point the definition of it has changed.  People are really stupid.
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it refers to exponential growth, in general, which is is by definition, unsustainable.

 
culdeus said:
Yeah, this was the case for us.  Was just 2 hours on a Saturday.  Everything was already staged and I had locked away my love swing and sybian.  We announced it like 8hrs before and still got 17 people in.  
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For some reason I read this in Kip Dynamite’s voice, with LaFawnduh at his side nodding and smiling.

 
Inventory and DOM are for sure up in the area here.  Houses in the 600-1M range are struggling, even ones that are clearly move in ready.  I think a lot of people are listing for a make me move price and are willing to take the consequences if it sells.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
So with prices still sky high since rates doubled, seems like something's gotta give right?
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Purchase mortgage applications have dropped, I think it was 12% IIRC. Things are slowing down a tad but that is pretty much like instead of getting 30 offers on a house just listed, it is getting 12. 

Buying power is getting hit hard but there is still an outsized amount of wanna be buyers. Assuming that does not change there is not enough supply coming on line to really meet that demand. So, as prices end up having downwards pressure on them because of the higher rates, sidelined buyers will come into the market and provide upward pressure. 

We are headed into a recession. It is almost a lock at this point. So, two things will happen... 1) People will lose their jobs. This will take away demand. But, with 2) Interest rates will come back down to try to get the economy moving again. 

Then there is the inflation that we have seen. The inflation will help lock in the appreciation gains we have seen as $100K yesterday is today's $120K. That will buoy home values. 

There is a correction on the horizon but I am not expecting it to be deep or long. It will vary for each individual market and be driven by job losses with a recession. Monetary and Fiscal policies will swing back into making easy and plentiful money and that will help the RE market again (historically, most recessions actually see RE appreciation because of the lower rates).  

 
Seeing the "too late" folks in my own neighborhood. There are 3 which have had no movement whatsoever so I am assuming they're now asking too much and missed the boat by about a month.

 
So what is gonna happen here? We still have pretty low inventory and the need for more housing but on the flip side, inflation, record high gas prices, cost of living expenses and higher interest rates make buying difficult. 

Weird times. I am filling the coffers to buy a beach place and some land the next time the bottom falls out. 

 
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
So what is gonna happen here? We still have pretty low inventory and the need for more housing but on the flip side, inflation, record high gas prices, cost of living expenses and higher interest rates make buying difficult. 

Weird times. I am filling the coffers to buy a beach place and some land the next time the bottom falls out. 
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My Prediction

1) Demand shrinks due to recession

2) As a result of reduced demand, housing prices get closer to traditional income/mortgage payment ratio levels

 
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Ridgeback said:
Good video overall, but he really should be comparing closing prices, not listing prices. Just about all realtors I know list low to attract more offers.
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Yeah...as well as Zestimates not being the most scientific of baselines. In general, though, his videos the last few weeks have accurately forecasted weakness in the market and it's fun to see how each market stacks up.

 
Captain Cranks said:
Listing prices undercutting Zestimates

This guy has been calling for a crash. He really dives into the regional numbers and is finding particular weakness along the west coast which he expects to migrate eastward.
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I stopped watching when he said compared to Zestimates. 

Zillow is good for only one thing: lead generation. 

Anyone in the RE market that I respect doesn't take Zillow seriously for anything else and that goes double for the Zestimates. 

I was curious but I am not wasting my time on someone using anything Zillow to come up with any data. 

 
I am seeing a lot of anecdotal evidence showing potential FTHB are sidelining themselves. Until job losses mount up to significant numbers, when prices/rates come down a but they will jump back in which should jeep any correction from being a crash on a national level. I do think some areas will see much more choppy waters than others.

 
Chadstroma said:
I stopped watching when he said compared to Zestimates. 

Zillow is good for only one thing: lead generation. 

Anyone in the RE market that I respect doesn't take Zillow seriously for anything else and that goes double for the Zestimates. 

I was curious but I am not wasting my time on someone using anything Zillow to come up with any data. 
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It’s fine for showing what comps in your zip code are going for. I wouldn’t take it serious for anything else but it can be a useful tool. 

 
Capella said:
It’s fine for showing what comps in your zip code are going for. I wouldn’t take it serious for anything else but it can be a useful tool. 
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I wouldn't use it for anything and don't. I have seen way too much incorrect information from it (and I am not even talking about Zestimates). I rather use realtor.com or homesnap which are directly tied into MLS rather than some crappy lead gen platform that is known two things (valuations and listings) and does both pretty much worse than anyone else out there. It is absolute crap. It is just another example of how marketing can and often does trump actual value. 

 
Chadstroma said:
I wouldn't use it for anything and don't. I have seen way too much incorrect information from it (and I am not even talking about Zestimates). I rather use realtor.com or homesnap which are directly tied into MLS rather than some crappy lead gen platform that is known two things (valuations and listings) and does both pretty much worse than anyone else out there. It is absolute crap. It is just another example of how marketing can and often does trump actual value. 
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realtor.com has been taking MLS info on open house times agents put into the MLS and posting them several hours later than they are posted in the MLS.

There was a small correction last August. Probably another small one now.

Lot more listings coming on the market right now than past years at this time. Most people that sell think this is the ideal time to list and they are wrong.  The market has heated up Jan 15 each of the last six years, not May when everyone thinks it does.

School is out soon in a lot of places, so many buyers are focused on graduation activities next few weeks.  If the slow down continues into July, then we might have hit a top for a few months. But still not enough housing for the demand.

 
Chadstroma said:
I stopped watching when he said compared to Zestimates. 

Zillow is good for only one thing: lead generation. 

Anyone in the RE market that I respect doesn't take Zillow seriously for anything else and that goes double for the Zestimates. 

I was curious but I am not wasting my time on someone using anything Zillow to come up with any data. 
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I think there's quality information in there beyond the use of Zillow, FYI.  

 
The info on Zillow is what it is, good and bad, depending.  It's not that difficult to figure out what parts are useless.  For basic, super easy browsing, it serves its purpose.  If you are using that info as gospel, you have a lot to learn, that's all.  

Whatever the case may be, it's not like it should be nixed completely.  It's kind of funny how upset people get over that site.

 
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
So what is gonna happen here? We still have pretty low inventory and the need for more housing but on the flip side, inflation, record high gas prices, cost of living expenses and higher interest rates make buying difficult. 

Weird times. I am filling the coffers to buy a beach place and some land the next time the bottom falls out. 
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Comparing the housing inventory https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ETOTALUSQ176N with households https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/families/time-series/households/hh1.xls it looks like our current ratio, ~1.09, is in line with previous years.  Has increasing wealth disparity caused more people to own vacation homes that sit vacant the majority of the year?  There has been significant growth in non family households vs family households but non family could also be people who live alone.

I wonder how many new landlords are dependent upon current rent rates to meet their mortgage.  It seems like the macroeconomic situation could quickly turn the sellers market into a buyers and the demise of the new landlords will add fuel to that fire.

 
Caveman33 said:
Comparing the housing inventory https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ETOTALUSQ176N with households https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/families/time-series/households/hh1.xls it looks like our current ratio, ~1.09, is in line with previous years.  Has increasing wealth disparity caused more people to own vacation homes that sit vacant the majority of the year?  There has been significant growth in non family households vs family households but non family could also be people who live alone.

I wonder how many new landlords are dependent upon current rent rates to meet their mortgage.  It seems like the macroeconomic situation could quickly turn the sellers market into a buyers and the demise of the new landlords will add fuel to that fire.
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Most of the new landlords are Wall Street corporations.  They'll just lay off employees and offer crappier service to ride out any slow times.

 
Closed on my sale Monday.  For first time since being an adult have no debt at all. 

People that bought this house overpaid like crazy.  Found a great rental and building a new home. 

Dfw is now seeing a surge of amateur make me moves that missed the window by a month +.  

 
A lady bought the house next door to me about 10 years and the house has been vacant for 7 of those years. (She’s rented it out twice but that was when she first got it) She won’t even entertain my offers to buy it. So weird. I want to buy it so I can bridge my house to it and use it as a garage. They have the lawn mowed and the power is on but otherwise it just sits. 
 

What’s the logic in this? Just an investment?

 
culdeus said:
Closed on my sale Monday.  For first time since being an adult have no debt at all. 

People that bought this house overpaid like crazy.  Found a great rental and building a new home. 

Dfw is now seeing a surge of amateur make me moves that missed the window by a month +.  
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Congrats dude, you timed this perfectly!
 

Any consideration to waiting a year to build until material prices drop? New house prices must be insane u less you’re your own GC on your home. 

 
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
Congrats dude, you timed this perfectly!
 

Any consideration to waiting a year to build until material prices drop? New house prices must be insane u less you’re your own GC on your home. 
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I have doubts the materials cost ever drop enough to move the needle.  Alot of houses in the 60s era coming up now need heavy work to update even basic things people expect to have.  The remodel costs are out of control since they don't pull in any volume.  

 
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