Chadstroma
Footballguy
The big Canadian banks just got downgrades today and have been struggling recently. A big reason is because of their real estate bubble.
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How's your housing market? (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter tommyGunZ
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RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
sbonomo
Footballguy
I tried moving back to AZ with basically a minor salary cut (50K ish). The cost of living in Phx/Scottsdale is roughly 1/2 of SF and 2/3 of Los Angeles but it is still Phoenix. It just isn't worth it. I love Chicago, but you could not pay me enough to endure that weather. Same for most east coast cities.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I'm not denying there is a bubble, but the bubble in the aughts was far more clear due to underlying data. I don't see anything currently to suggest a bubble other than high prices. What data do you see that suggest a bubble?
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
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Zegras11
Footballguy
I'm not really classifying this as a bubble. There's a long term trend line for US Housing around 6% per year. When some of these markets get 15-20% over that line, they tend to drop back towards that line about every ten years. We are approaching that ten year mark. There is some evidence that the tops have started to decline a tad or started slowing down.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
I think he was referring to the market in Canada. Which is a bubble. And a more severe one than in the US in 04-08.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Chart 4 is insane! They were tracking right there with us then had a small 'correction' and kept on going. Geez, I knew it was bad in Canada but not that bad. Our northern friends have so.e major pain in the not too distant future.
mr. furley
Footballguy
freaking bananas here right now. think we're finally catching up to where the rest of the country was a decade ago.
houses are selling before they "officially" hit the market. the ones that do make it are seeing 5,6,7 offers over asking price within hours.
we were the first in at a house 2 weeks ago. made an offer about 10% over asking price that day. got beat out by someone else. felt bad until i found out 4 other people lost out too.
houses are selling before they "officially" hit the market. the ones that do make it are seeing 5,6,7 offers over asking price within hours.
we were the first in at a house 2 weeks ago. made an offer about 10% over asking price that day. got beat out by someone else. felt bad until i found out 4 other people lost out too.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I have lived in LA and now Chicago. I am looking forward to leaving Illinois before it implodes. Indianapolis is likely the spot. I am a Californian but I can't ever move back.
But supply and demand. A lot of people want to live in SF and NY in small areas with no further development. A lot of people want to live in LA and not commute 3 hours one way due to sprawl. Not as many people want to live around Indianapolis and there is plenty of land available. Thus for the 1,500 sqft 3 bedroom 2 bath place in a not so great area of LA with no lot you can get a 4k daft with full finished basement on an acre plus in a desirable burb with next to no crime and great schools. Oh, and no pension doom hanging over the state already taxed to the hilt with regulations driving business away.
Great thing about the US..... it is your choice!
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
My old house in the Chicago area is way, way below the value I sold it at in 2007, still.
People are leaving Cook County and Illinois, for very good reasons.
The murder committed in the front yard surely didn't help either.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
"Wait....Dad you grew up in LA, but decided to raise us in Indocrapolis????"
:CaliforniaGurlswe'reunfoegettableDaiseyDukesbikinisontop:
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
One factor that I was talking about with another investor is that many of the folks that lost houses last time around (and have since been renting) are back in the market to buy now. And their credit is better now. And these same folks are going to get burned twice now.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Yea, my city just had a non-binding vote on whether to leave Cook County to join Will County. It passed.RedmondLonghorn said:
So many people that I know feel the same way about getting the heck out of here. Illinois is a mess and on it's way to imploding. The city of Chicago is a horrible mess and as much as I am not a fan of Rahm- he has tried to tackle the challenges and make tough decisions to save the city but of course all the morons are up in arms about it. I don't expect Rahm to survive the next election and whatever idiot replaces him will most likely be more Daley for political survival rather than the cities. Cook County is the best off of the three but that is like saying our last Governor was not so bad because at least he is not in jail.
Geez, can't wait to leave.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Ha! Yea, there is a TON to LOVE about California and I will always be a Californian at heart but I just can' see moving back. Maybe if you guys have the big one and a ton of people decide to leave after that and real estate market implodes.... but other than that.... I can't see it happening.tommyGunZ said:
Chadstroma
Footballguy
15% above asking. Geez. It feels weird saying it with that much over asking.... so, good luck?
What market?
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
mr roboto
Footballguy
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
The ironic thing is that it isn't like we lived in a rough area. Oak Park/River Forest is actually pretty nice. But it is bordered by an awful area (West Side) and a couple of other not so great areas.
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urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Portland. This was one seemed to be lower priced for the neigborhood, size, etc.
Just found out we didn't get it. Now 0-4.
mr roboto
Footballguy
Yeah. I've said before that Chicagoland still offers some jobs and amenities that are hard to find elsewhere. But for the younger middle class family (I'm 34 with 3 kids) it's not an enticing place to invest in long term.
So the Winnetkas and Naperville and Streetervilles and Lincoln Parks and Barringtons will fare just fine. But middle class areas? The prop taxes alone. Oof.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Yea, Portland is one of those real hot markets. 15% above asking and you still miss on it. Wow. Sorry man.
flapgreen
Footballguy
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
It's all good. This wasn't a house we really wanted, but would have taken it for the price, location, etc. I've only gone over more than I was comfortable once out of the four times and still missed the mark. It's pretty crazy.
Portland is still the most affordable city on the west coast and has been fairly insulated by the housing bubbles in the past.
flapgreen
Footballguy
flapgreen
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
That's me. Have finally recovered and am in a great spot to buy but the market here has exploded. Really have no choice and really need to buy but scared to death of the bottom dropping out again.
Zegras11
Footballguy
So what I'm seeing a lot of here in Boise is that 30-40% of the listings (under $250k) are priced $5-10k low on purpose to create an EBay situation where they get a ton of multiple offers and crazy Ebay bidding way over asking.
I call every agent before I see a home to see if there is anything I need to know about it and if they have any offers. (Only 5% of agents do this). They list it on a Thursday so the open house has two days to propagate on the net and then have an Open House scheduled for Saturday. I'm hearing 5-12 offers already in hand on these listings when I call.
That two-day Pre-OpenHouse creates its own little window and anyone that's been searching for awhile will place an offer on it even w/o seeing it as they've seen so many similar homes and are fatigued by the process.
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urbanhack
Fight The Power!
the agents have been good about not giving away the bids and offers so most of it is blind bidding. So many people coming in from California and NYC with cash to make the a lot of the better offers and jack up the prices. Many of agents don't want to go too low because of the extra work processing and reviewing extra offers (I've heard this from a few agents)
Zegras11
Footballguy
The agents can't unless they have permission from the seller. I'm only getting the number of offers they have at that moment.
Yep, we are getting cash offers a lot from So Cal, No Cal, Seattle, Denver. 40 Tech companies have moved here last three years. Prices are still very low compared to rest of country and plenty of land to build on out here. Many retirees also selling homes in the above for $750-1.2mil and buying the same new house for $300-400 here and pocketing the difference for retirement..
Zegras11
Footballguy
Here's some crazy numbers from a new buyer I met with yesterday.
He had 33 homes that fit his search criteria for a home.
That same criteria has 141 pending homes
Average days on market is 10. Median is 4.
30 of them went pending in 0-1 days.
Six of his 33 went pending. Six new ones came on today.
He had 33 homes that fit his search criteria for a home.
That same criteria has 141 pending homes
Average days on market is 10. Median is 4.
30 of them went pending in 0-1 days.
Six of his 33 went pending. Six new ones came on today.
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Beef Ravioli
Footballguy
Columbus, OH - my realtor told me, lots of buyers but few houses. This is a question I asked my realtor and CPA but I know you guys are smarter than they are. Here's the background and questions:
We have lived in our house for almost six years. It was your classic foreclosure/fixer upper that gave us great equity immediately. Currently the market here in Cbus is booming. Since neither the wife nor I consider this our forever house, we have considered selling now, while the market is hot and getting an apartment until we find our next good deal on a house. We probably could sell the house for 150-160k and have about 82k total into it and currently owe about 71k.
So, first question: would we owe tax on that profit? We are under the impression that we would not, since we have lived here for over five years.
Second question: should we just keep paying our mortgage down and not worry about the market? Our house payment is about $100 less a month than our rent on an apartment would be. A year ago, houses like ours were selling for 10-15k less than they currently are now. I know it's impossible to tell what the market will be in a year from now but we hate to miss out on this time of selling since we don't absolutely love the house.
Thoughts?
We have lived in our house for almost six years. It was your classic foreclosure/fixer upper that gave us great equity immediately. Currently the market here in Cbus is booming. Since neither the wife nor I consider this our forever house, we have considered selling now, while the market is hot and getting an apartment until we find our next good deal on a house. We probably could sell the house for 150-160k and have about 82k total into it and currently owe about 71k.
So, first question: would we owe tax on that profit? We are under the impression that we would not, since we have lived here for over five years.
Second question: should we just keep paying our mortgage down and not worry about the market? Our house payment is about $100 less a month than our rent on an apartment would be. A year ago, houses like ours were selling for 10-15k less than they currently are now. I know it's impossible to tell what the market will be in a year from now but we hate to miss out on this time of selling since we don't absolutely love the house.
Thoughts?
Zegras11
Footballguy
I would find that ideal home now and then sell.
Check with CPA, but pretty sure as you have lived in home two of the last five years, and don;t profit more than $250k per person, there will be no taxes
hxperson
Footballguy
This is one of the main problems we are having in Canada right now. There really are only 2 cities in Canada people want to live in right now, and this is especially true for the immigrants from Asia and the Middle East who are coming here in droves. In addition (or perhaps in conjunction), Toronto and Vancouver are the only two cities seeing steady employment growth in the country. I've seen many of my finance colleagues come back to Toronto from places like Calgary or Edmonton now that the oil and resource boom has become a bust. We've also seen a sizable influx of Syrian refugees and rates remain low. It has created the perfect storm for a massive housing bubble, and when Vancouver announced their foreign buyers tax last summer, that just blew the Toronto market sky high. 30% spike in prices pretty much overnight. Buddy of mine bought a townhouse in August for $780K. In December, a similar unit a few doors down sold for $1 million. It was insane.
The province put in a new 16 point plan to cool off the market in April, and I've been hearing anecdotally that things are finally starting to turn. A lot of supply has recently hit the market and buyers have been more hesitant due to the new regulations. But even with all of that, we still have had situations like this. So who knows for sure what will happen going forward. One thing I feel confident in is that, as hot as it has been recently, the Seattle market is likely going to go hyperbolic next. To me, it is the most logical destination now for Asian hot money to pile in to.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
Wow, people are climbing over each other to buy, everywhere you look. Seems like a great time to buy.
Sand
Footballguy
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
Sarcasm meter down, Sand?
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
Rick James
Footballguy
Atlanta, like most major cities, is absolutely nuts right now. We're going to buy a townhome/condo in a good area (good schools, they do exist) and stay for 4-5 years and hopefully let all this crap die down. Save up for a down payment, upgrade, and rent out our old place. That makes the most sense to me. Hopefully it cools off in 4 or 5 years
-OZ-
Footballguy
We bought with a va loan last year - 30 year at 3.25%
I'm thinking of refinancing for a conventional 15 year, with rates according to lending tree, 2.63% (other sites list just over 3)
I really don't want to get spam for using their site but would it be worthwhile? Or I can just add a few hundred each month to the payment. Or neither and save up enough to put a down payment on a beach house to rent out.
Which brings another question - those of you who own rental property and use a manager, how do you estimate your cash flow before buying? It's an investment but we'd be content to break even (minus down payment) for the first few years. Have you had the manager provide estimates for rental history, maintenance and other costs? We'd be buying in a place we'd need* the manager and there are hoa fees for things like lawn care.
We're a couple years away, just trying to plan ahead and decide whether to pay down our mortgage, invest the max for retirement, or just get the match and save for the rental.
I'm thinking of refinancing for a conventional 15 year, with rates according to lending tree, 2.63% (other sites list just over 3)
I really don't want to get spam for using their site but would it be worthwhile? Or I can just add a few hundred each month to the payment. Or neither and save up enough to put a down payment on a beach house to rent out.
Which brings another question - those of you who own rental property and use a manager, how do you estimate your cash flow before buying? It's an investment but we'd be content to break even (minus down payment) for the first few years. Have you had the manager provide estimates for rental history, maintenance and other costs? We'd be buying in a place we'd need* the manager and there are hoa fees for things like lawn care.
We're a couple years away, just trying to plan ahead and decide whether to pay down our mortgage, invest the max for retirement, or just get the match and save for the rental.
bagger
Footballguy
You would not owe taxes.
Sell the house, rent, and then buy your forever house when the market turns.
Sand
Footballguy
Evidently so. In my defense I was stuck in an airport late.
Ok, that's not a defense, just a ####ty excuse. But it's all I've got and I'm going with it.
xulf
Footballguy
Do you have enough cash in the bank to put the down payment on your forever house without selling your current home?
As you noted, rents here (Columbus area) are high and are probably going up faster than home prices. Paying premium rent with nothing back in return isn't ideal. Should you stay (and can afford a down payment on your forever house), you still make out if the market takes a down turn. Saving 15% on the forever house outweighs the 15% you may lose on your own sale. Any rent paid is a complete loss.
ETA-obviously you don't have to have the down payment already available before the sale of your house, but if you do it makes things much easier on your end (and avoids contingencies in your offer which can be deal breakers)
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