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Hunt's effect on Westbrook (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jon_Moore
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
All questions pertaining to the Philadelphia Eagles will be referred to Jeff Pasquino and Jason Wood, thank you.
I think Hunt and Buckhalter will eat a ton into Westbrook and think BW had his best year last season for sure. Had 63 more carries than his 2nd highest total of 177 in 2004...coincidence that McNabb was out during this run? He avg 12 carries a game from weeks 1-8...week 10 rolls along and for the next 7 weeks he avg 20+ carries a game with McNabb out...you really think Reid had an epiphany and is now committed to the run?
Westbrook will settle back to about 600-800 yds rushing like he always has done...outside chance of a 1,000 rushing and he will come off that career high of 77 catches and settle back a little bit there to around 60-65 tops now that they have a more developed WR corp that was decimated when Owens was there.
Buckhalter weighs 230 lbs btw...he's a pretty good size back.
Now JP won't agree with a word I say, but that Jason guy, you can talk reason with him.
I think Hunt and Buckhalter will eat a ton into Westbrook and think BW had his best year last season for sure. Had 63 more carries than his 2nd highest total of 177 in 2004...coincidence that McNabb was out during this run? He avg 12 carries a game from weeks 1-8...week 10 rolls along and for the next 7 weeks he avg 20+ carries a game with McNabb out...you really think Reid had an epiphany and is now committed to the run?
Westbrook will settle back to about 600-800 yds rushing like he always has done...outside chance of a 1,000 rushing and he will come off that career high of 77 catches and settle back a little bit there to around 60-65 tops now that they have a more developed WR corp that was decimated when Owens was there.
Buckhalter weighs 230 lbs btw...he's a pretty good size back.
Now JP won't agree with a word I say, but that Jason guy, you can talk reason with him.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
In 2006, the Eagles only rushed the ball 16 times inside the 5. Westbrook had 7, Buckhalter had 6 and McNabb, Tapeh and Moats had 1 each. Overall, Westbrook only touched the ball 9 times inside the 5. So he really wasn't used much in that facet of the game to begin with, so there really isn't much rushing work at the goalline for him to lose.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Reid had an epiphany and turned the play calling over to Marty Morningwheg. That's when the offensive play calling started to change. Unless Reid takes those duties back, I don't think the Eagles will revert back to 60+% passing again.
Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
I am a Westy owner and I honestly cant see TH being much of an impact this season. I highly doubt they are gonna turn the ball over to a rookie to be their red zone option when they have BWest and Buckskin. I do think however next season he could have a much larger role in the offense as a whole.ericthemidget
Footballguy
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
They also started winning and playing MUCH better when they came back and were committed to the run. Why wouldn't Reid want to continue that? Around Philly, its expected they aren't going to run offense they did in beginning of last season. There are already many reports, granted off-season fluff, that claim they will continue to use Westbrook the same way. Especially since McNabb is coming off an injury, I would look for them to use Westbrook to take the load off of him. And how good of a rusher is Westbrook? Westbrook has always been considered frail. He has always been considered to never run between the tackles. In his first season of carrying a large load, he proved everyone wrong. Not only were his stats spectacular, but he improved as the season moved along. Can you tell me why he performed better (YPC) in the last half of season? During weeks 10-19 he ran 5.5 YPC, higher than the 5.2 in weeks 1-9. (using FBG stats for ease)
I am struggling to see how you can get 600-800 yards. He is a career 4.7 YPC rusher, and last year avg 5.1 YPC. The offensive line is young, one of the best in the league and only getting better, but for your sake, let's assume he hits his career average:4.7 YPC for 700 yards (your prediction) results from only 150 rushes. Are you really predicting anything close to 150 rushes? In 2005, he had 150 rushes in 12 games (pro-rates to 200) . In 2006 he had 240 rushes in 15 games (pro-rates to 260). But let's look at it another way:Let's assume he gets the average of those rush totals in the last 2 years, pro-rated. That is 220 rushes, still down from last year. To have 700 yards rushing on 220 rushes is averaging 3.2 YPC. Remember he is a career 4.7 YPC guy coming off of a year where he avg 5.1. No way the guy hits near 700 yards unless he has a big injury
. Looking at last year, as pointed out above, he only got healthier and stronger as the season went on (coming back from LisFranc). Don't assume an injury.MOP, usually I like your predictions, but this is way off.But, to the point:IMO, Hunt will be battling with Buck for his role, not much more.
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zadok
Footballguy
The only TDs Hunt will steal are Buckhalter's.
zadok
Footballguy
MAHE IS UFA AND IS NOT COMING BACK 
How this guy constantly sneaks into Eagles threads I have no idea...Aaronstory
Footballguy
Because he played for them not too long ago and not everyone is as obsessed as you are with the Eagles enough to keep track of every 5th string RB?Just a guess.
radiohead417
Footballguy
Hey, but after all, Westbrook was finished in Philly 2 years ago when Ryan Moats got drafted, right? People need to wake up and look at talent. As long as Westbrook is the best talent option at RB, he'll stay on the field and put up great numbers in PPR leagues (top 5), and a RB1/RB2 in non PPR. The only way Tony Hunt will eat into his carries is if Hunt develops into a high-quality back. Yes, there's always the question of injury with Westbrook, but this is nothing new since he became Philly's #1 back.I think he means this guy.I'm not sure what the plans are for him. This was a confusing pick but I assume they'll only keep one of the two "big backs" they drafted.
Zoomanji
Footballguy
I think he's competing with Tapeh at fullback
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Philadelphia ran the ball at the goal line a whopping 16 times as a team last year, 27th in the league. Of those 16 carries, Westbrook got 7 of them and converted only 2 for touchdowns. Westbrook's fantasy value has little to no correlation with his use as a goal-line runner.
zadok
Footballguy
I don't think so. Davis is a true fullback and will compete with Tapeh. I think the team would just as soon replace Buckhalter and Moats with Hunt and Ilaoa. As Jeff menmtioned, he seems like a ST gunner, a dimension Moats never brought.
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
I know we're getting off topic, but I see Moats as the odd man out this year. He was on the trading block leading up to the draft and (unsurprisingly) had no takers. He will be hard pressed to make the team. Ultimately, I think either Moats or Tapeh (or both) will be waived.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Two :( 's here. Hunt isn't much of a concern.I will say, however, he didn't look like a "big back" in footage I saw of OTAs. He looked pretty lean (Hunt).Hey, but after all, Westbrook was finished in Philly 2 years ago when Ryan Moats got drafted, right? People need to wake up and look at talent. As long as Westbrook is the best talent option at RB, he'll stay on the field and put up great numbers in PPR leagues (top 5), and a RB1/RB2 in non PPR. The only way Tony Hunt will eat into his carries is if Hunt develops into a high-quality back. Yes, there's always the question of injury with Westbrook, but this is nothing new since he became Philly's #1 back.
Pickle Rody
IBL Representative
This statement is, of course, right on the $$$$.I see Hunt as a change of pace back to come in and get short yardage first downs. Or possibly used as a decoy in the backfield at the same time as Westbrook, with play-action to Hunt and then Westbrook catching a toss in the flat for major chunks of yards.
I really was unaware of this. Phenominal statistics. This is why I come here.
DenverBroncos
Footballguy
This Tony Hunt talk is ridiculous. I expect him to get 1-2 TD's at the very best. Didn't Buchalter get like 2 TD's last year. Tony Hunt for some reason is highly overrated and had absolutely no starting potential in the NFL. I really have no idea why people are high on him. Andy Reid specifically said that Hunt will not even beat out Moats.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I think he's talking about Nate Ilaoa.
zadok
Footballguy
TheLastDispatch
Footballguy
They also started winning and playing MUCH better when they came back and were committed to the run. Why wouldn't Reid want to continue that? Around Philly, its expected they aren't going to run offense they did in beginning of last season. There are already many reports, granted off-season fluff, that claim they will continue to use Westbrook the same way. Especially since McNabb is coming off an injury, I would look for them to use Westbrook to take the load off of him. And how good of a rusher is Westbrook? Westbrook has always been considered frail. He has always been considered to never run between the tackles. In his first season of carrying a large load, he proved everyone wrong. Not only were his stats spectacular, but he improved as the season moved along. Can you tell me why he performed better (YPC) in the last half of season? During weeks 10-19 he ran 5.5 YPC, higher than the 5.2 in weeks 1-9. (using FBG stats for ease)
I am struggling to see how you can get 600-800 yards. He is a career 4.7 YPC rusher, and last year avg 5.1 YPC. The offensive line is young, one of the best in the league and only getting better, but for your sake, let's assume he hits his career average:4.7 YPC for 700 yards (your prediction) results from only 150 rushes. Are you really predicting anything close to 150 rushes? In 2005, he had 150 rushes in 12 games (pro-rates to 200) . In 2006 he had 240 rushes in 15 games (pro-rates to 260).
But let's look at it another way:
Let's assume he gets the average of those rush totals in the last 2 years, pro-rated. That is 220 rushes, still down from last year. To have 700 yards rushing on 220 rushes is averaging 3.2 YPC. Remember he is a career 4.7 YPC guy coming off of a year where he avg 5.1. No way the guy hits near 700 yards unless he has a big injury
MOP, usually I like your predictions, but this is way off.
But, to the point:
IMO, Hunt will be battling with Buck for his role, not much more.
zadok said:
Came in here fired up to post all the reasons Hunt won't affect Westy only to find it's all been said.Jason Wood said:
guys.DocT, I love your post but would disagree with your comment on Westy's injury status. Healthier and stronger as the year went on? Maybe. But the guy was still on the injury report for 13 weeks last year. He may have only missed a game, but week in and week out he was a threat to be sitting on the sidelines.
Keith Lewis
Footballguy
I own Hunt, but not Westy so I personally believe Hunt will become the starter this year.
yeahMuch like that QB Timmy Chang probably. I realize the opposition's talent is inferior and the type of style that team plays but geesh 7.6 rush avg(IIRC) and 7.6 rec avg is pretty sweet. I figure one of these days, one of these Hawaiian's games are going to translate to the NFL level.ConstruxBoy said:
I would imagine this is a trend/stat that Reid would want to change. I don't consider that the norm and expect 07 to be a repeat. Don't you Jason?(# of rush attempts for team at GL)The guy was drafted for a reason. While I've yet to see/read how Reid and co plan to use him, he was. IF IF IF The reason is that McNabb and Westy keep getting hurt and one of these could be career ending so we better get some decent backups....so be it, but I don't think it's wise to dismiss Hunt as some others have. Re-Buck-Nothing about that guy's career gives the Eagles confidence in counting on him so he didn't affect Hunt's presence at all.I do think Brandon Jacobs and Westy could emulate the G-men's running game well. Prob is that Hunt is not Jacobs so I don't really "get" that comparison. My guess would be Westy is getting some breathers. There are drives that the guy could sure use em' too. If he loses a few carries or receptions he'll probably make up the yards in being "fresher" the following plays. I don't imagine a big drop in his production, he's a star that Reid will use all he can without crossing some unspoken amount that's deemed too much and will lead to overuse and injury.....why Hunt's probably around.Jason Wood said:
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trader jake
Footballguy
Westbrook's value has vary little to do with his goal-line work. That isn't going to change this year whether it is Tony Hunt, Correll Buckhalter, or any other RB getting the limited goal-line work that Andy Reid's playcalling allows.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Per Rotoworld
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
I don't really see that happening because I don't think he's very talented, but still, Buckhalter had over 100 touches himself last year. Moats added another 22. Maybe they're expecting him to take over Buckhalter's duties, or at least the bulk or non-Westbrook carries.I always thought we used Buck in a powerback role when he is hardly a powerback. He never added that much of a change of pace and I think a guy like Hunt could be better suited for that role.
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ImTheScientist
Footballguy
IMO I think Hunt gets lost in the shuffle and does not get 100 carries or the job as the goal line back as some think.
ddogs24
Footballguy
Anyone thinking Hunt takes the starting job from Westy is crazy. Let's rememeber that Andy Reid's version of the West Coast offense is not the easiest to learn. Westy is the ultimate weapon b/c he creates mismatches all over the field.
Westbrook only got some additional goaline carries LY because of personnel packages they had to mix up w/out McNabb. CBuck resigned a short-term contract, and the birds realized that IF Westy were to get injured again, they could not plug in Moats because he could not get the playbook down. Moats was drafted the year they had a contract dispute with Westy, so Moats was drafted as a Westy cloan. Only problem was he couldn't remember the plays, and when Westbrook was injured at the end of '05, they had to dummy down the plays so Moats could get in.
Buckhalter will be around for 1-2 yrs so Hunt has time to learn the playbook, then Hunt will be the primary backup and goaline back. Hunt is young enough that when Westy contract ends in a few years, they can cut ties if he has a number of injury plagued seasons, leaving Hunt in his prime to take over as the lead back. Or they split carries between them to save Westy over the season, and take a "Thunder & Lightening" running approach like in N.O.
Westbrook only got some additional goaline carries LY because of personnel packages they had to mix up w/out McNabb. CBuck resigned a short-term contract, and the birds realized that IF Westy were to get injured again, they could not plug in Moats because he could not get the playbook down. Moats was drafted the year they had a contract dispute with Westy, so Moats was drafted as a Westy cloan. Only problem was he couldn't remember the plays, and when Westbrook was injured at the end of '05, they had to dummy down the plays so Moats could get in.
Buckhalter will be around for 1-2 yrs so Hunt has time to learn the playbook, then Hunt will be the primary backup and goaline back. Hunt is young enough that when Westy contract ends in a few years, they can cut ties if he has a number of injury plagued seasons, leaving Hunt in his prime to take over as the lead back. Or they split carries between them to save Westy over the season, and take a "Thunder & Lightening" running approach like in N.O.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Hey Bri,As an Eagles fan I would like nothing more than to see us commit to the running game more consistently. Not only at the goal line but throughout the game. As you know, the offensive line is enormous and inarguably one of the top 5 units in the league. They thrive on more running plays and are well suited to it. My comments vis-a-vis the Eagles tendencies at the goal line are more to illustrate that Westbrook's value isn't tied to the goal line. In an ideal world, Hunt would come in and get 20 goal line carries and convert 10+ of them for TDs. But no matter how you slice it, I don't see Hunt's role hurting Westbrook's value regardless of the team's trends.
Just a minor point of clarification though..you said you don't consider last year's goal-line rushing stats as "the norm." I wish that were true but a quick glance at the last five years tells a different tale:
2006 -- 16 rushes, 17 passes
2005 -- 7 rushes, 17 passes
2004 -- 17 rushes, 18 passes
2003 -- 20 rushes, 16 passes
2002 -- 17 rushes, 15 passes
I'm tempted to reply "that stinks" but McNabb does like the TE and Westy can catch a quick pass and outrun almost anyone to the front corner like Tiki did so well for years for the Gmen. I guess I'm hearing ya; that they weren't ineffective just did it differently than the traditional smash it in style many teams employ. InterestingJason Wood said:
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
zadok
Footballguy
As a side note, I'm really hoping that Ilaoa makes it because when I think of a big, round Hawaiian breaking through the line, I think....."OH YEAH!" I think we should start calling him "Punch"
Love it!
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FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
I am targeting Hunt in my TD heavy league rookie draft coming up, but really don't see him having any effect on Westbrook's value at all. Westbrook is a stud...any other RB in the mix is there to give him a rest.
Royal Hawaiian Opihi
Footballguy
University of Hawaii football season ticket holder here. Have watched Nate Ilaoa for 4 seasons. He came to UH as a WR... and then really enjoyed the local food and the weight room. Prior to his junior season, he sloughed off over the summer and came to preseason camp out of shape. June Jones benched him for the first couple of games, and he had to earn his way back onto the field. Since then he's been a changed player... and worked exceptionally hard. He had an excellent senior year! He's actually quite shifty and quick, though not exceptionally fast. He has absolutely GREAT hands and can catch anything thrown even close to his vicinity.
Granted, I'm not a Philly insider... don't really follow the team that much... but I think Ilaoa will surprise people this summer.
Here's his highlight reel, in case you haven't seen him in action:
Granted, I'm not a Philly insider... don't really follow the team that much... but I think Ilaoa will surprise people this summer.
Here's his highlight reel, in case you haven't seen him in action:
zadok
Footballguy
"Learning the system". In other words, wait until the pads go on with the full team.
DenverBroncos
Footballguy
0-2.
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