I guess 2010 will be the 1st year where all players fall within (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Greetings Shark Poolians,

There has been a lot of discussion about projections this year. I definitely understand that we all try and keep busy and to some degree, off season projections and stat trends eat up a lot of down time or dead time...personally though this is the time to take those S/Os out for all those picniks and beach excursions that they cry about when you are glued to the TV on Sundays(and Saturdays, and Thursday Nights, and Monday Nights) in the Fall.

We talk about this every year but there is always a shuffle of the deck and sometimes it is due to injury and some of it is due to folks we might overlook, but the reality is a handful of players make the biggest difference. In 10-12 team leagus you need studs at almost every position or hope that you get LUCKY by squeaking into the playoffs and then going on a tear for 2-3 weeks. I have typically in the past done a grading system, however the grading system I implement doesn't mix as well with WRs I find. RBs you can find 4-5 easy categories and split up the %, divide by 2, carry the 1, etc...

So my opinion and that's all it really is...is to not get too bogged down on the numbers. I would make large pools with fairly round numbers and then fill those up with players that have the best chance to possibly hit those numbers. 2,000 total yds, 20 Tds(almost no one), next maybe 1,750 total yds and 15 Tds(again very few) and so on and so on...it's not a hard numbers game. I know folks are ranking RBs with Chris Johnson, ADP, MJD, Ray Rice, then Gore...I can bet the house they don't finish 1-5...just won't happen for whatever reason. But if you go in with the mindset that the floor for those 5 players is top10-12 short of injury, that I can buy into, maybe. So when you projection theorists are done revving up the numbers you might be better served not getting married to those stats.

I'll offer up a question for your feedback. What do you think are the biggest mistakes that you see people make when they map out their projections?

Thanks everyone,

MOP

 

[Crimson King]

One of the biggest problems that I tend to see with projections is the fact that most second year players are automatically expected to improve upon their rookie stats. Often this projection is made without taking into account a variety of factors such as new O-coordinator, injured o-line men, retirements etc. There have been numerous examples of this over the last 3-5 years (I've been duped myself) that I'm now really beginning to be more analytical. Guys like Forte, Slaton, Caddy Williams, Micheal Clayton are the obvious examples and there are more (when I have more time I'll pull up the names) who are textbook examples that often situation and workload can change drastically from year to year, thus making sophmore improvement a much more multidimensional event than a simple % upgrade due to experience.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Good point CK, you see this a lot where folks say "He's gotta imrpove in year 2"...there is some validity to it but it's not an automatic event.

 

[LawFitz]

The single biggest mistake I see people make when projecting is looking at players in a vacuum. Surrounding situation is as important as individual talent in Fantasy Football.

 

[HoleFiller]

I think when you take in to account the whole situation you see why a guy like Frank Gore is being projected at number 5. Improved offensive line, improved qb play, other reliable offensive weapons, a top 10 defense. All of these make Frank Gore set up for success in 2010. Not to mention the guy scored double digit fantasy points in 9 of his last 10 games and facest one of the easier schedules for a running back in the upcoming season.

Ryan Mathews would be the one guy I'd be very concerned about when looking at the projections. It is so hard to project fantasy success for rookies, especially a RB going to a team that struggled to run the ball last year (No matter whos fault it may be) and may potentially be without one of their best offensive lineman in McNeal.

But back to the OP. I think the main reason I do so many projections is because I love football and fantasy football and i have a lot of time to kill before NCAA 10 and Madden come out. But I agree that your projections are far less likely to let you down if you group several players together based on achievable goals rather than trying to determine future statistics down to the nearest yard.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Rarely do we account for the possibility of the healthy, talented player (in a good system) coming up woefully short on TDs. Going into last year you would have been resoundingly mocked if you predicted a Jason Witten 2(!) TD season (on 124 targets to boot!). But these things happen and there often isn't a (projectable) why.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Projections in June are good to refresh the memory of who did what and how it happened. Important trends are discussed, theories are developed. For me, it's like coming back from summer and trying to remember your locker combination. The actual prediction is as worthless as anyone's uneducated guess.

Once the pads go on and TC starts, the consensus starts to take a tighter focus. There will be some significant pre-season injuries, some demotions, some promotions, some suprising cuts.

It's why I don't like to do any redrafts before the end of the 3rd week of preseason.

 

[trader jake]

What do you think are the biggest mistakes that you see people make when they map out their projections?

Believing they are a more accurate gauge of players entering the season than a ranking of players without projected stats.Projecting stats on your own seems like an incredible waste of time to me but if people want to project their own (rather than tweaking a site like FBG's) go crazy.