I predict 90% of malls will be closed in 10 years (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

Sad to go into a mall these days. They are dead with most of the stores closed and very little traffic. Online shopping is putting them out of business like streaming did to video stores. They’re a few surviving, or even thriving, but most are dying. I expect this to be saddest for those 80s teenagers that have fond memories of meeting their friends at the mall, eating some pizza and playing arcade games. But like most things, the only guarantee is change. I kind of felt that way when drive-ins closed. I say shut them down. I don’t see how any of the stores stay open in these dying malls.

 

[Jobber]

Yeah it breaks my heart walking through the malls I used to hang out in when I was young. Outside of destination malls like the Mall of America and Edmonton they’ll all be converted into apartments or something.

 

[JohnnyU]

Yeah it breaks my heart walking through the malls I used to hang out in when I was young. Outside of destination malls like the Mall of America and Edmonton they’ll all be converted into apartments or something.

I live in Minnesota and have been to Mall of America a few times, but it’s been a few years. I seem to remember it wasn’t what it was when I first moved to Minnesota.

 

[Desert_Power]

Yeah it breaks my heart walking through the malls I used to hang out in when I was young. Outside of destination malls like the Mall of America and Edmonton they’ll all be converted into apartments or something.

Feel like most would benefit from turning their expansive surface lots into apartments already. Tenant mix would shift, but would imagine the foot traffic would be a lot better.

 

[JohnnyU]

I see on Youtube some urban explorers going into the malls that are already closed. Some of the videos are interesting for sure.

 

[SoBeDad]

The most recent 2 malls I visited are ranked at 11th largest (Sawgrass in Broward) and 4th (Aventura). They're both busy with new tenants replacing those that leave. Probably not as busy as 15 years ago ... I recall dropping my family off early in the morning of Black Friday at Sawgrass about 15 years ago cause there'd be no parking. Not anymore. But destination malls should continue to do well as smaller ones go out of business. In South Florida, tourists love those malls and so do locals on hot days. There are even approved plans, postponed to a 2026 opening, due partly to Covid, and now the economy, to build another America Dream Mall in northwest Miami-Dade, that would be #1 in size.

 

[JohnnyU]

The most recent 2 malls I visited are ranked at 11th largest (Sawgrass in Broward) and 4th (Aventura). They're both busy with new tenants replacing those that leave. Probably not as busy as 15 years ago ... I recall dropping my family off early in the morning of Black Friday at Sawgrass about 15 years ago cause there'd be no parking. Not anymore. But destination malls should continue to do well as smaller ones go out of business. In South Florida, tourists love those malls and so do locals on hot days. There are even approved plans, postponed to a 2026 opening, due partly to Covid, and now the economy, to build another America Dream Mall in northwest Miami-Dade, that would be #1 in size.

Like I said, some will survive and some may even thrive, but for the most part malls across America are dying. I can't tell you how many I've been to that are like walking through a ghost town. Just last weekend we went to Southdale Mall in Minneapolis and it was sad to see. However, the Galleria in Edina was busy. I believe most will shut down in a decade or two, but not all.

 

[massraider]

There are even approved plans, postponed to a 2026 opening, due partly to Covid, and now the economy, to build another America Dream Mall in northwest Miami-Dade, that would be #1 in size

Perhaps they can call it the Boondoggle?

Man, as someone who has pitched investors over the last few years, I cannot imagine trying to pitch some investors on a mall.

 

[belljr]

Malls are still open? I feel like I live in the mall state capitals of the world and most of ours have closed or have condensed to like one tiny wing of what it used to be and built a bunch of restaurants around it

 

[SoBeDad]

There are even approved plans, postponed to a 2026 opening, due partly to Covid, and now the economy, to build another America Dream Mall in northwest Miami-Dade, that would be #1 in size

Perhaps they can call it the Boondoggle?

Man, as someone who has pitched investors over the last few years, I cannot imagine trying to pitch some investors on a mall.

It helps when the population of the state is growing by 1,000 people a day, tourism keeps breaking pre-Covid numbers, and a lot of big-time wealth is migrating from the NY area and overseas. But there are signs, locally, of a slowing economy. I haven't heard much recently about the proposed $5 billion America Dream Mall, I would guess ground breaking is delayed indefinitely, maybe forever. The proposed area in northwest Hialeah has been a hot area for building new warehouses and distribution centers.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Malls are still open? I feel like I live in the mall state capitals of the world and most of ours have closed or have condensed to like one tiny wing of what it used to be and built a bunch of restaurants around it

Yeah, I had to do a double-take to make sure this wasn't a necro thread from 10 years ago. It seems like 90% of them are already either closed or effectively dead.

 

[Juxtatarot]

There were 2,500 malls at our peak and we’re down to about 600 now. 540 of those closing in 10 years is higher than I’d go but no doubt we’ll continue to see the decline.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Malls are still open? I feel like I live in the mall state capitals of the world and most of ours have closed or have condensed to like one tiny wing of what it used to be and built a bunch of restaurants around it

Yeah, I had to do a double-take to make sure this wasn't a necro thread from 10 years ago. It seems like 90% of them are already either closed or effectively dead.

Agreed. Seems like a weird thread considering how many have either shut down altogether and decreased greatly in size/open businesses.

 

[JohnnyU]

Malls are still open? I feel like I live in the mall state capitals of the world and most of ours have closed or have condensed to like one tiny wing of what it used to be and built a bunch of restaurants around it

Yeah, I had to do a double-take to make sure this wasn't a necro thread from 10 years ago. It seems like 90% of them are already either closed or effectively dead.

Agreed. Seems like a weird thread considering how many have either shut down altogether and decreased greatly in size/open businesses.

A lot still open, but dead. Most of those will close. Brick and mortar stores are becoming obsolete.

 

[Snoopy]

There are even approved plans, postponed to a 2026 opening, due partly to Covid, and now the economy, to build another America Dream Mall in northwest Miami-Dade, that would be #1 in size

Perhaps they can call it the Boondoggle?

Man, as someone who has pitched investors over the last few years, I cannot imagine trying to pitch some investors on a mall.

There is a now-demolished mall that was bought by an investor for the purpose of being a loss leader so a tax write-off could be made.

 

[JohnnyU]

Hey, look at the bright side, fewer smash and grab incidents.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Malls are still open? I feel like I live in the mall state capitals of the world and most of ours have closed or have condensed to like one tiny wing of what it used to be and built a bunch of restaurants around it

Yeah, I had to do a double-take to make sure this wasn't a necro thread from 10 years ago. It seems like 90% of them are already either closed or effectively dead.

Agreed. Seems like a weird thread considering how many have either shut down altogether and decreased greatly in size/open businesses.

A lot still open, but dead. Most of those will close. Brick and mortar stores are becoming obsolete.

You might enjoy a documentary called Jasper Mall on Amazon Prime. It depicts one of these dying malls in Alabama. It doesn't have any special twist or message or anything -- it just shows how the mall was once a destination and is now on its last legs.

 

[JohnnyU]

Malls are still open? I feel like I live in the mall state capitals of the world and most of ours have closed or have condensed to like one tiny wing of what it used to be and built a bunch of restaurants around it

Yeah, I had to do a double-take to make sure this wasn't a necro thread from 10 years ago. It seems like 90% of them are already either closed or effectively dead.

Agreed. Seems like a weird thread considering how many have either shut down altogether and decreased greatly in size/open businesses.

A lot still open, but dead. Most of those will close. Brick and mortar stores are becoming obsolete.

You might enjoy a documentary called Jasper Mall on Amazon Prime. It depicts one of these dying malls in Alabama. It doesn't have any special twist or message or anything -- it just shows how the mall was once a destination and is now on its last legs.

Thanks. I saw a few of these on YouTube.

 

[massraider]

Brick and mortar stores are becoming obsolete.

Commercial real estate is just a changing landscape.

OK, maybe there won't be a Spencer Gifts next to a Hot Topic, or even a mega Best Buy or JC Penny at the end of the mall, but was that always the best use of the space? Did we need acres of parking? Maybe a 5 story building would have been a good idea. And maybe the amount of commercial RE needs to shrink. Fine with me.

I'd like to see developments where the goal is to have people there every day.

Don't have your anchor be a restaurant, or a retail store. Have it be the sports complex that has kids soccer, and adult hoops leagues, and health club, etc. people there all different times for all different things. Mega coffee shop, maybe a We Work type joint, now it's a place the community has a reason to hang out, like the mall used to be.

 

[SoBeDad]

Retail vacancies are in the low single digits across South Florida. It's an outlier, perhaps due to the wealth migration from higher tax states, tourism, and hot weather, so there aren't that many enjoyable outdoor activities for 6 months of the year. It may help that there are very few smash and grabs and other crimin in most malls.

 

[JohnnyU]

My wife was a professional mall shopper. Now she’s a professional Amazon shopper.

 

[Courtjester]

We have two malls here--one is doing okay. It has probably a 20% vacancy rate. The other mall is a disaster. It was a place I grew up going to. The Macy's that was there has been converted to some huge church, which I find amusing because the entrance is right next to Hooters. The Dilliards also closed down and has become some kind of on-line high school. The rest of the mall is scary--lots of gang activity. It is a pretty routine place for drug deals and several shootings a month.

 

[SoBeDad]

My wife was a professional mall shopper. Now she’s a professional Amazon shopper.

My ex-wife was a professional bargain hunter. She'd buy stuff on sale, even if we didn't need it. Probably qualified as a hoarder too. When we got divorced, I took 2 of the 15+ China sets she bought over the years. Many were unused, still in the original box. If she were in the country now, I could see her buying bargains she doesn't need online.

 

[JohnnyU]

We have two malls here--one is doing okay. It has probably a 20% vacancy rate. The other mall is a disaster. It was a place I grew up going to. The Macy's that was there has been converted to some huge church, which I find amusing because the entrance is right next to Hooters. The Dilliards also closed down and has become some kind of on-line high school. The rest of the mall is scary--lots of gang activity. It is a pretty routine place for drug deals and several shootings a month.

Another sad story from “The other mall“….onward.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I’d welcome the death of all malls, but suburbs of many major cities still are littered with strip mall, big box store complexes.

They should convert them all to parks, or senior centers.

 

[massraider]

When I lived in Aspen, it was everyone's favorite joke if they had to go to the Glenwood Springs mall. KMart at one end, closed anchor at the other, a DMV inside somewhere next to the bedazzled phone case kiosk, and a bunch of broken dreams.

 

[Ilov80s]

Hard to see how any of them survive much longer. What would could possibly make a mall work now? What would attract people?

 

[JohnnyU]

When I lived in Aspen, it was everyone's favorite joke if they had to go to the Glenwood Springs mall. KMart at one end, closed anchor at the other, a DMV inside somewhere next to the bedazzled phone case kiosk, and a bunch of broken dreams.

Isn’t Glenwood Springs where Doc Holliday died and is buried?

 

[SoBeDad]

Hard to see how any of them survive much longer. What would could possibly make a mall work now? What would attract people?

Other people. Restaurants. Actives. And retail stores. Some successful malls will survive. Like I posted above, people in South Florida are also doing an outing from home and escaping the heat. Wouldn't people up north want to escape the cold?

 

[Dezbelief]

The local mall here got bought a few years ago by some out of town firm that has steadily been pumping up the rent. Businesses have been leaving for strip malls or leaving town all together.
Dillard's (gone)
JCPenny (gone)
Cinnabon (gone)
Old Navy (strip mall)
Bath and Body Works (strip mall)
American Eagle (strip mall)

All above listed ever rising rent from the new landlord as the reason for leaving the mall.

 

[SoBeDad]

When I visited my daughters in California last Thanksgiving, we went to the Grove in LA. There was a nice Christmas Village with Santa and a big tree. The place was bustling ... maybe it's not as busy the rest of the year. We also saw The Glass Onion in their AMC theater. There was also a big covered farmers market next to it. I could see that mall surviving.

 

[Ilov80s]

Hard to see how any of them survive much longer. What would could possibly make a mall work now? What would attract people?

Other people. Restaurants. Actives. And retail stores. Some successful malls will survive. Like I posted above, people in South Florida are also doing an outing from home and escaping the heat. Wouldn't people up north want to escape the cold?

The problem with going to a mall to escape the cold is it requires you to leave your warm comfy house and go out into the cold to get to the mall.

 

[JohnnyU]

Hard to see how any of them survive much longer. What would could possibly make a mall work now? What would attract people?

Other people. Restaurants. Actives. And retail stores. Some successful malls will survive. Like I posted above, people in South Florida are also doing an outing from home and escaping the heat. Wouldn't people up north want to escape the cold?

Southdale Mall in Minneapolis is dead, even in the winter and it gets damn cold here. My wife said going to the mall is a waste of time because they don’t stock like they used to. When the Marshall Fields here was bought out by Macy’s they quit carrying the higher end items and started going downhill immediately. She said department stores carry a lot of stuff people aren’t interested in. I wouldn’t know, but she sure would.

 

[Ilov80s]

Hard to see how any of them survive much longer. What would could possibly make a mall work now? What would attract people?

Other people. Restaurants. Actives. And retail stores. Some successful malls will survive. Like I posted above, people in South Florida are also doing an outing from home and escaping the heat. Wouldn't people up north want to escape the cold?

Southdale Mall in Minneapolis is dead, even in the winter and it gets damn cold here. My wife said going to the mall is a waste of time because they don’t stock like they used to. When the Marshall Fields here was bought out by Macy’s they quit carrying the higher end items and started going downhill immediately. She said department stores carry a lot of stuff people aren’t interested in. I wouldn’t know, but she sure would.

Yeah less people go so the malls have less stores which causes less people to go which then leads to fewer stores and so on. Sad cycle.

 

[JohnnyU]

Hard to see how any of them survive much longer. What would could possibly make a mall work now? What would attract people?

Other people. Restaurants. Actives. And retail stores. Some successful malls will survive. Like I posted above, people in South Florida are also doing an outing from home and escaping the heat. Wouldn't people up north want to escape the cold?

Southdale Mall in Minneapolis is dead, even in the winter and it gets damn cold here. My wife said going to the mall is a waste of time because they don’t stock like they used to. When the Marshall Fields here was bought out by Macy’s they quit carrying the higher end items and started going downhill immediately. She said department stores carry a lot of stuff people aren’t interested in. I wouldn’t know, but she sure would.

Yeah less people go so the malls have less stores which causes less people to go which then leads to fewer stores and so on. Sad cycle.

Not just less stores, but as my wife said, the ones that are open don’t carry the merchandise she is interested in and she used to go to malls all the time back in the day. I spent many Saturdays following her around carrying bags. My biggest interest going to the mall was where do I get to eat?

 

[top dog]

Check this one out. I grew up near here and was always at this mall back in the 80s. Now it is an absolute ghost town. One sad food court place. Bath & Body Works and Dunhams are about all that is left.

DEAD MALL - MIDWAY MALL - ELYRIA OHIO - THE END OF RETAIL AS WE KNOW IT

DEAD MALL - MIDWAY MALL - ELYRIA OHIO - THE END OF RETAIL AS WE KNOW IT

www.youtube.com

 

[JohnnyU]

Check this one out. I grew up near here and was always at this mall back in the 80s. Now it is an absolute ghost town. One sad food court place. Bath & Body Works and Dunhams are about all that is left.

DEAD MALL - MIDWAY MALL - ELYRIA OHIO - THE END OF RETAIL AS WE KNOW IT

DEAD MALL - MIDWAY MALL - ELYRIA OHIO - THE END OF RETAIL AS WE KNOW IT

www.youtube.com

eerie

 

[Ilov80s]

Hard to see how any of them survive much longer. What would could possibly make a mall work now? What would attract people?

Other people. Restaurants. Actives. And retail stores. Some successful malls will survive. Like I posted above, people in South Florida are also doing an outing from home and escaping the heat. Wouldn't people up north want to escape the cold?

Southdale Mall in Minneapolis is dead, even in the winter and it gets damn cold here. My wife said going to the mall is a waste of time because they don’t stock like they used to. When the Marshall Fields here was bought out by Macy’s they quit carrying the higher end items and started going downhill immediately. She said department stores carry a lot of stuff people aren’t interested in. I wouldn’t know, but she sure would.

Yeah less people go so the malls have less stores which causes less people to go which then leads to fewer stores and so on. Sad cycle.

Not just less stores, but as my wife said, the ones that are open don’t carry the merchandise she is interested in and she used to go to malls all the time back in the day. I spent many Saturdays following her around carrying bags. My biggest interest going to the mall was where do I get to eat?

Yeah I get it. I grew up on malls for sure. They were still a big deal in the 90s and early 00s. Hit the restaurants, theaters, shopping for clothes, music stores. It's a bygone era.

 

[SoBeDad]

Do you guys up north hibernate during the dead of winter? I remember often going to the mall with my kids as a form entertainment outing on the weekends, lots of hours spent at Urban Outfitters, Victoria Secret, etc, and the food court getting free samples, not to mention 50% off at the cookie place about 30 minutes before the mall closed. It was good for people watching. There was also reading books, without buying, at the now almost extinct book stores.

Do kids and teenagers these days prefer to buy clothes and shoes online?

 

[Sand]

Yeah it breaks my heart walking through the malls I used to hang out in when I was young. Outside of destination malls like the Mall of America and Edmonton they’ll all be converted into apartments or something.

Not necessarily a bad thing.

 

[JohnnyU]

Do you guys up north hibernate during the dead of winter? I remember often going to the mall with my kids as a form entertainment outing on the weekends, lots of hours spent at Urban Outfitters, Victoria Secret, etc, and the food court getting free samples, not to mention 50% off at the cookie place about 30 minutes before the mall closed. It was good for people watching. There was also reading books, without buying, at the now almost extinct book stores.

Do kids and teenagers these days prefer to buy clothes and shoes online?

I’m not a shopper, my wife is, so I don’t know what teenagers in Minnesota do in the winter. We get out in the winter all the time. Malls aren’t our first choice. I think my wife is nostalgic, because she still drags me out to them sometimes, but it’s always the same. Like walking through a ghost town. Not all of them however. The Galleria in Edina was busy. But the writing is on the wall. My wife shops online mostly now. You can see from the video @top dog posted what malls have turned into. I’ve watched several just like it on YouTube. Sad for the 80s and 90s mall people, but times have changed.

ETA: My wife and I enjoy going to a lot of the small towns in Minnesota and Wisconsin, even in the winter and shop at their local shoppes. Maybe find a good place to eat afterwards. You can find a lot of interesting items in these small towns and I enjoy helping their local economy.

 

[New Binky the Doormat]

hate it, but I don't remember the last time I was at a mall ...it's been well over a couple of years. Malls were THE place to go when I was in my teens well into my early 30s.

that's where you went to meet girls, play video games, grab some food court grub ...maybe an Orange Julius.

and then when of age, it was hammering down beers at the TGIFs in the mall.

there are several malls on youtube that I frequented a lot that are now pretty scary ...so weird to think we spent so much time there and how fun it was - and now it looks like Chernobyl

What’s in America’s Abandoned Malls (Full Episode)

Welcome to Northeastern Ohio – the mecca of abandoned shopping malls. Rick visits these crumbling capitalist cathedrals to explore the aftermath with their m...

www.youtube.com

 

[SoBeDad]

Why US malls are dying (and European malls are not). Transportation, over supply x10, quality, poor urban planning. Amazon.

Why US Malls Are Dying (And Why European Malls Aren't)

Use the link https://shop.ekster.com/adamsomething to get a discount of up to 35% off from May 16th - June 20th on Ekster's Father's Day sale. Alternatively,...

youtu.be

 

[MAC_32]

Do you guys up north hibernate during the dead of winter?

In our new climate change world winter up here isn't that bad anymore. Don't get me wrong, when it is bad it is real bad, but it's so bad like @Ilov80s eluded to you have to leave your warm, comfy house to get to another warm, comfy location. So when it's like that we hibernate, but it's actual hibernation in the house. Aside from those couple of systems per winter generally the worst it gets is a handful of cloudy days with high's in the low 30's. Less than ideal conditions would be putting it nicely, but not I refuse to go outside bad. It's also a whole lot easier to put on an extra layer and shake up some hand warmers than it is down south cause the only level beyond almost naked is naked.

 

[Stoneworker]

While retail industry analysts who do this stuff for a living predict there will be continued consolidation (as much as 1/3 mall closures) after many years of overbuilding, it is likely to be nothing close to the Armageddon the OP has predicted.

- Bricks-and-mortar store owners are emerging from the pandemic with surprising strength, posting some of their best numbers in years and plotting expansions as more Americans venture out to buy things again.

- U.S. retail vacancy fell to 6.1% in the second quarter, the lowest level in at least 15 years, while asking rents for U.S. shopping centers in the quarter were 16% higher than five years ago, according to real-estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.

- More stores opened than closed in the U.S. last year for the first time since 1995, according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley, and some analysts say they expect that trend to continue this year even with recession fears rising.

- ...more and more companies that started as online only retailers, like Warby Parker Inc., are also turning to real estate to attract customers and boost growth.

- And after being forced to buy more things online at the start of the pandemic, many people have decided they like shopping in stores for items ranging from clothing to groceries, in a reassuring sign for the staying power of bricks-and-mortar retail.

- After its own painful reinvention, retail real estate is now benefiting from years of minimal construction as companies that survived the challenges of online shopping and the pandemic look to expand.

- While many middle- and lower-quality malls are still struggling, operators of high-end, Class A malls—such as Brookfield, Simon Property Group and Macerich Co.—have seen occupancy rates recover from pandemic dips to more than 90%

- “Retail sales growth in physical bricks and mortar stores is actually growing faster than e-commerce this year,” Brookfield’s Mr. Kingston said.

- And the U.S. is still over-retailed. About a third of the 1,100 existing malls and more than 10% of 115,000 shopping centers will likely fail in the coming years and should be demolished, Mr. Kamdem of Morgan Stanley said.


- Even so, he added, the industry is better positioned for any economic turbulence than it has been in decades. Retail bankruptcies ticked up during the pandemic, but not nearly to the degree seen during the 2008 financial crisis.


Source: WSJ 10/4/2022

 

[BlackCrowes]

No Spencer’s?

 

[Ilov80s]

Do you guys up north hibernate during the dead of winter?

In our new climate change world winter up here isn't that bad anymore. Don't get me wrong, when it is bad it is real bad, but it's so bad like @Ilov80s eluded to you have to leave your warm, comfy house to get to another warm, comfy location. So when it's like that we hibernate, but it's actual hibernation in the house. Aside from those couple of systems per winter generally the worst it gets is a handful of cloudy days with high's in the low 30's. Less than ideal conditions would be putting it nicely, but not I refuse to go outside bad. It's also a whole lot easier to put on an extra layer and shake up some hand warmers than it is down south cause the only level beyond almost naked is naked.

Yeah up until probably late January or early February, I was still going on regular walks/hikes. Winter up here isn’t what it used to be.

 

[massraider]

Yeah up until probably late January or early February, I was still going on regular walks/hikes. Winter up here isn’t what it used to be.

Yeah, where is this dead of winter happening?

 

[Gatorman]

Sad to go into a mall these days. They are dead with most of the stores closed and very little traffic. Online shopping is putting them out of business like streaming did to video stores. They’re a few surviving, or even thriving, but most are dying. I expect this to be saddest for those 80s teenagers that have fond memories of meeting their friends at the mall, eating some pizza and playing arcade games. But like most things, the only guarantee is change. I kind of felt that way when drive-ins closed. I say shut them down. I don’t see how any of the stores stay open in these dying malls.

Johnny:

I disagree. I think the indoor mall you and I grew up with is dying with only the "best" ones surviving. Here in South Florida we have about 3 malls per County in what you would consider to be "traditional" setups. These are usually the "survivors" of the closing and consolidation of department stores that existed at the time. Then you have the "Outlet" style mall, also about one per county, and then you have the "open air" newer mall concept which is about 2-4 blocks of shops and eateries with possibly a movie theater within the "parking area" of that location, usually without a "large anchor" department store. (these will usually have some combination of national chains like Gap, Lacoste, Lulu, Athleta, etc and in the nicer ones a Zara or Uni. The crappier ones get an Old Navy)

Macys and Nordstrom survive, as well as JC Penny, Saks, and that is about it. If those guys fall then the malls you and I grew up in will finally die like the one in Blues Brothers.

 

[glvsav37]

my local mall is doing ok, better than I thought. Went there the other day and was surprised how few stores were vacant, I expected a lot more.

They converted one of the anchor tenant spaces (it was a Sears) into a huge annex of our main hospital. Healthcare never goes out of business and I guess you can assume that the people who work there and the people who come in for appointments would patronize the other shops

Mixed use is really the future of retail. The new communities popping up have retail on the ground floor and then apartments or condos above it.