I state the obvious very often but... (1 Viewer)

[brett5673]

How much luck Fantasy football really is?? I know that all this predicting is to eliminate as much luck as possible, but it is nuts when you think about it. When I stop and think for a sec, its crazy.

 

[Go deep]

How much luck Fantasy football really is?? I know that all this predicting is to eliminate as much luck as possible, but it is nuts when you think about it. When I stop and think for a sec, its crazy.

Actually, i was thinking the opposite. Everyone has the same advantage when it comes to luck, so if you are smarter, better prepared, etc. you should fare better more times than not.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Someone much smarter than me once said that the absolute diehard, that tirelessly tracks depth charts, TC and preseason preformances, injuries, waivers, etc. is probably yielding about an extra 6%-10% advantage TOPS over the guy drafting straight from the grid without reading a thing.

I think that's fairly close.

 

[Kuz]

Someone much smarter than me once said that the absolute diehard, that tirelessly tracks depth charts, TC and preseason preformances, injuries, waivers, etc. is probably yielding about an extra 6%-10% advantage TOPS over the guy drafting straight from the grid without reading a thing. I think that's fairly close.

I agree with this. There's a ton of luck in Fantasy Football but if you have more better players with a reasonable chance to succeed it can only help though right.

 

[FantasyTrader]

How much luck Fantasy football really is?? I know that all this predicting is to eliminate as much luck as possible, but it is nuts when you think about it. When I stop and think for a sec, its crazy.

Actually, i was thinking the opposite. Everyone has the same advantage when it comes to luck, so if you are smarter, better prepared, etc. you should fare better more times than not.

That's not entirely true. If you played in 10,000 leagues you'd enjoy roughly the same amount of luck as your opponent. But 1-2 leagues? No. Luck will certainly smile on some more than others.

 

[The Dude]

I think the part people don't consider regarding luck is the picks you don't get - not the picks you get. I've won many a league by not getting somebody I set my sights on going into the draft.

 

[Chaka]

Chance favors the prepared mind.

 

[prgromek]

anybody can read names off a cheat sheet.

the skill comes in selecting the right players, spotting undervalued players, learning how to manage a draft and get value with every pick, learning what positions to fill when and how much depth to draft at each position.

Of course, then you have in-season management of your team (waivers, who to start, etc.). In some leagues I bet you could hand the top owner the worst roster coming out of the draft and give the worst owner the best roster and I'd still put my money on the owner who knows his stuff.

There is a lot of luck involved but in long-term leagues there's always a couple guys that usually make the playoffs every year

 

[FantasyTrader]

Of course, then you have in-season management of your team (waivers, who to start, etc.). In some leagues I bet you could hand the top owner the worst roster coming out of the draft and give the worst owner the best roster and I'd still put my money on the owner who knows his stuff.There is a lot of luck involved but in long-term leagues there's always a couple guys that usually make the playoffs every year

Bingo. Post draft is where the great players make their money. Waivers and trades.

 

[SSOG]

If fantasy football was 100% skill, then the best owner in any given league would have a 100% lifetime winning percentage, and the worst owner would have a 0% lifetime winning percentage.

If fantasy football was 100% luck, then the best owner in any given league would have a 50% lifetime winning percentage, and the worst owner would have a 50% lifetime winning percentage.

Obviously, fantasy football is neither 100% skill nor 100% luck. How much of it is luck? Well, in one of my leagues (that's been around about a decade), the owner with the highest lifetime winning percentage has a 60% winning percentage, and the owner with the lowest lifetime winning percentage has a 40% winning percentage. I'd say that that's a pretty good illustration of how luck plays a far bigger role in fantasy football than anyone wants to acknowledge.

 

[Sunday Devil]

you are too stoned bud lol

 

[FantasyTrader]

I think the part people don't consider regarding luck is the picks you don't get - not the picks you get. I've won many a league by not getting somebody I set my sights on going into the draft.

Man, that's SO true. You forget about the players your opponents saved you from!

 

[timschochet]

This is my 5th year of fantasy football. The past 4 years I have finished in first place twice and second place twice. My opponents claim it's all luck. The main reason I win is Footballguys. This year I drafted Jermichael Finley, Jahvid Best, and Arian Foster in rounds 4, 5, 6. All because of Footballguys. I expect to win again.

 

[brett5673]

you are too stoned bud lol

Naww, it's super obvious, but I just was lookin back at all the sleeper articles and it is fun to look over, but so much is not right. I will say that Free agent and Waiver pickups is where teams win or lose a league, but with football injuries and all, so much chance and luck it is so crazy all the time spent trying to make a perfect team

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

it's skill when you win and luck when you lose.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

How much luck Fantasy football really is?? I know that all this predicting is to eliminate as much luck as possible, but it is nuts when you think about it. When I stop and think for a sec, its crazy.

Actually, i was thinking the opposite. Everyone has the same advantage when it comes to luck, so if you are smarter, better prepared, etc. you should fare better more times than not.

Everyone has the same advantage when it comes to luck? That's untrue, pretty much by the definition of luck itself.

 

[Avery]

Curious.

Do people think that keeper or dynasty leagues mitigate some of the luck or it is the same in all formats?

 

[FantasyTrader]

Curious.Do people think that keeper or dynasty leagues mitigate some of the luck or it is the same in all formats?

Dynasty opens the gap between the haves and have nots significantly. Redraft is a 16 week sprint before the game resets itself and everybody starts even again. In keeper and dynasty, properly valuing players (or not) has ramifications that can last years.

 

[Avery]

Curious.Do people think that keeper or dynasty leagues mitigate some of the luck or it is the same in all formats?

Dynasty opens the gap between the haves and have nots significantly. Redraft is a 16 week sprint before the game resets itself and everybody starts even again. In keeper and dynasty, properly valuing players (or not) has ramifications that can last years.

All valid, but does properly valuing player (or not) favor luck less, more, or about the same?

 

[Hoart Petterson]

If the league is strong and all the owners stay involved throughout the season it's about 92% luck.

 

[SSOG]

Curious.Do people think that keeper or dynasty leagues mitigate some of the luck or it is the same in all formats?

Dynasty opens the gap between the haves and have nots significantly. Redraft is a 16 week sprint before the game resets itself and everybody starts even again. In keeper and dynasty, properly valuing players (or not) has ramifications that can last years.

All valid, but does properly valuing player (or not) favor luck less, more, or about the same?

I'd call it the same. If you had an owner who played in 1,000 redraft leagues for 10 years and 1,000 dynasty leagues for 10 years, I'd imagine his w/l% would be pretty comparable across both formats. No real reason behind that, just a hunch.

 

[Avery]

Curious.Do people think that keeper or dynasty leagues mitigate some of the luck or it is the same in all formats?

Dynasty opens the gap between the haves and have nots significantly. Redraft is a 16 week sprint before the game resets itself and everybody starts even again. In keeper and dynasty, properly valuing players (or not) has ramifications that can last years.

All valid, but does properly valuing player (or not) favor luck less, more, or about the same?

I'd call it the same. If you had an owner who played in 1,000 redraft leagues for 10 years and 1,000 dynasty leagues for 10 years, I'd imagine his w/l% would be pretty comparable across both formats. No real reason behind that, just a hunch.

I'm thinking, and for me there's nothing statistically backing it up either, that with a full dynasty roster, keep players as long as you want, it would start to favor the owner who had more knowledge. Not to toot my own horn, but for example, in an inaugural dynasty league a couple of years ago I grabbed Chris Johnson and Ray Rice when they were still not on a lot of people's radar. Because I frequent footballguys and other fantasy information, I knew of these guys were showing well earlier than many.Whereas a redraft seems more prone to the luck, or lack thereof, of yearly injuries and fluctuation is statistics.

 

[timschochet]

This thread gives me an idea for an interesting experiment: we should have a draft for a previous season, say 2009, one where we all know the results beforehand. Then we should play out that season with each team starting the players who will produce the best results for that given week.

Would it still be the luck of the draft order that would decide the ultimate winner in such a league? Or would it be the skill of the people drafting?

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

The problem is people think it's either skill or luck. Doesn't have to be that way. I think it's 60 percent preparation, 25 percent random, crazy luck and 15 percent "skill" in trade negotiations, waiver wire, etc.

But that 15 percent puts people in position to win more than anyone else. They can't overcome the luck part but, with just average luck they'll be ahead of the pack.

That means that a person who takes the time to prepare and gets lucky is about 85 percent of the way to having a successful team.

 

[FFCardsFan]

Luck is when preparation meets opportunity

 

[crush304]

high variance not high luck

 

[Instinctive]

I don't know. Luck certainly plays a part...but I've been in the championship 3 years straight...2 times against the same opponent. Luck?

I think the best way to split it is this:

SKILL is making the playoffs year in and year out

LUCK is winning it all any given year

 

[DiStefano]

The best games are those which involve a mixture of skill and luck. If it's all skill, you have chess. Go against a chess grandmaster, and you're going to lose, so what's the point? If it's just luck, you have Yahtzee. Great for kids. But if the game has a combination of skill and luck, then it becomes fascinating to the majority of people. Skill can make a difference, but it's not a sure thing.

 

[thatguy]

The best games are those which involve a mixture of skill and luck. If it's all skill, you have chess. Go against a chess grandmaster, and you're going to lose, so what's the point? If it's just luck, you have Yahtzee. Great for kids. But if the game has a combination of skill and luck, then in becomes fascinating to the majority of people. Skill can make a difference, but it's not a sure thing.

Great way of looking at it. I couldn't agree more.

 

[FFCardsFan]

The best games are those which involve a mixture of skill and luck. If it's all skill, you have chess. Go against a chess grandmaster, and you're going to lose, so what's the point? If it's just luck, you have Yahtzee. Great for kids. But if the game has a combination of skill and luck, then it becomes fascinating to the majority of people. Skill can make a difference, but it's not a sure thing.

Thats the perfect response to this thread

 

[ThePittbully]

Of course, then you have in-season management of your team (waivers, who to start, etc.). In some leagues I bet you could hand the top owner the worst roster coming out of the draft and give the worst owner the best roster and I'd still put my money on the owner who knows his stuff.There is a lot of luck involved but in long-term leagues there's always a couple guys that usually make the playoffs every year

:X Bingo. Post draft is where the great players make their money. Waivers and trades.

Agree, In my leagues you can tell the guys who put in the hard work vs the guys who just read the cheatsheets at the start of the season. The guys who put in that extra work might not always win, but 9 times outta 10 they are in the mix at the end. Also I agree with the people who said savy owners make up a lot of ground through waivers in trades, I had a terrible team last year due to injuries and what not that I made into a playoff team because it was a fish league

 

[SSOG]

This thread gives me an idea for an interesting experiment: we should have a draft for a previous season, say 2009, one where we all know the results beforehand. Then we should play out that season with each team starting the players who will produce the best results for that given week.

Would it still be the luck of the draft order that would decide the ultimate winner in such a league? Or would it be the skill of the people drafting?

You mean something a little like this? :X

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Of course, then you have in-season management of your team (waivers, who to start, etc.). In some leagues I bet you could hand the top owner the worst roster coming out of the draft and give the worst owner the best roster and I'd still put my money on the owner who knows his stuff.There is a lot of luck involved but in long-term leagues there's always a couple guys that usually make the playoffs every year

:X Bingo. Post draft is where the great players make their money. Waivers and trades.

Agree, In my leagues you can tell the guys who put in the hard work vs the guys who just read the cheatsheets at the start of the season. The guys who put in that extra work might not always win, but 9 times outta 10 they are in the mix at the end

I don't really see why this is skill. Couldn't I take any person, give them the tools to prepare and put them in the same position? Is it a skill if you simply put in the time to pour over information that anyone can attain?

 

[cvnpoka]

This is my 5th year of fantasy football. The past 4 years I have finished in first place twice and second place twice. My opponents claim it's all luck. The main reason I win is Footballguys. This year I drafted Jermichael Finley, Jahvid Best, and Arian Foster in rounds 4, 5, 6. All because of Footballguys. I expect to win again.

nope. the reason you won is luck.

 

[cvnpoka]

Curious.Do people think that keeper or dynasty leagues mitigate some of the luck or it is the same in all formats?

Dynasty opens the gap between the haves and have nots significantly. Redraft is a 16 week sprint before the game resets itself and everybody starts even again. In keeper and dynasty, properly valuing players (or not) has ramifications that can last years.

All valid, but does properly valuing player (or not) favor luck less, more, or about the same?

I'd call it the same. If you had an owner who played in 1,000 redraft leagues for 10 years and 1,000 dynasty leagues for 10 years, I'd imagine his w/l% would be pretty comparable across both formats. No real reason behind that, just a hunch.

i disagree. he would have better win% in dynasty. it lends itself to deeper research, planning, and scouting. redraft has more focus on it from experts and publications. the information is more apparent and the discrepancies correct themselves quicker. in short, there is a much more information out there on redraft than dynasty.

 

[Catbird]

Its a skill, but your skill can't control all the veriables. A couple of key injuries can kill anyone, although a skilled guy will come back a lot further than someone who doesn't have any insight. The same guys DO tend to make the playoffs more often - and if you think that is pure luck, you likely aren't one of them.

Someone who knows nothing about it can draft from a cheat sheet. Someone who understands the game, though, can outdraft virtually any cheat sheet for his particular league - or can at least outdraft 95% of them. And we learn when to handcuff or not, to look at the Leinarts of the world beyond the fact that they 'must be in the top 32 QBs' because they are a 'starting QB'. We assimolate a thousand little hints and clues about what guys who watch and know are saying about Barber or Foster or about Huggins - and a sense of whether the descriptions are more hype or the guy is an elite talent in a particular case. Some guys can just see talent in watching a guy for a couple of plays (I REALLY wish I were a lot better at it). I'll take an experienced drafter every time - and so to that extent I think skill is a big factor.

Who would spend a lot of time here if they didn't believe that?

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Its a skill, but your skill can't control all the veriables. A couple of key injuries can kill anyone, although a skilled guy will come back a lot further than someone who doesn't have any insight. The same guys DO tend to make the playoffs more often - and if you think that is pure luck, you likely aren't one of them. Someone who knows nothing about it can draft from a cheat sheet. Someone who understands the game, though, can outdraft virtually any cheat sheet for his particular league - or can at least outdraft 95% of them. And we learn when to handcuff or not, to look at the Leinarts of the world beyond the fact that they 'must be in the top 32 QBs' because they are a 'starting QB'. We assimolate a thousand little hints and clues about what guys who watch and know are saying about Barber or Foster or about Huggins - and a sense of whether the descriptions are more hype or the guy is an elite talent in a particular case. Some guys can just see talent in watching a guy for a couple of plays (I REALLY wish I were a lot better at it). I'll take an experienced drafter every time - and so to that extent I think skill is a big factor. Who would spend a lot of time here if they didn't believe that?

I don't think you mentioned much that couldn't be gleaned from visiting a couple of websites. Is surfing the Internet really much of a skill? Those thousand "hints and clues" can be found in the SP. Is being here really a skill?

 

[cvnpoka]

FF is so much about luck because profit always finds a way to poison the fun out of things. It gets milked and milked and beaten into the ground until you can't sell something anymore. And that's the thing, you can't market luck, you can't sell luck, you can't package luck, and you can't profit from luck. Then after a while, people get pissed off that it's about random chance, after all the money they've spent, and then they just give it up. And when they leave, they take a little bit of the soul out of the hobby with it.

Apathy isn't a symptom, it's a byproduct.

The FF bubble is going to pop. Not because of luck, but because adults find a way to poison everything they love.

vegas vehemently disagrees with this thought process. and it has like 70 yrs of cash cow profit to refute it.

 

[cvnpoka]

I heard at Burning Man, some company is putting up a cell phone tower ( if they haven't already) I thought the point of Burning Man was to get away from technology and the trappings of society. But there is profit to be made. As the event becomes more commercial, it sucks the fun right out of it.

no the point of burning man is to do drugs and have sex with underaged females.

 

[kroyrunner89]

I feel like playoffs often come down to luck as it's only one week. Otherwise I say talent wins out. I've been in a total of 9 leagues with my group of buddies and have yet to miss the playoffs. Skill wins out over the course of a season. However, out of those 9 playoff appearances, I have 1 win to show for it, despite some absolutely sick teams. One bad week is all it takes...

 

[Man of Constant Sorrow]

If fantasy football was 100% skill, then the best owner in any given league would have a 100% lifetime winning percentage, and the worst owner would have a 0% lifetime winning percentage.If fantasy football was 100% luck, then the best owner in any given league would have a 50% lifetime winning percentage, and the worst owner would have a 50% lifetime winning percentage.Obviously, fantasy football is neither 100% skill nor 100% luck. How much of it is luck? Well, in one of my leagues (that's been around about a decade), the owner with the highest lifetime winning percentage has a 60% winning percentage, and the owner with the lowest lifetime winning percentage has a 40% winning percentage. I'd say that that's a pretty good illustration of how luck plays a far bigger role in fantasy football than anyone wants to acknowledge.

Do you believe that luck has a role in a game of chess?

 

[SSOG]

If fantasy football was 100% skill, then the best owner in any given league would have a 100% lifetime winning percentage, and the worst owner would have a 0% lifetime winning percentage.If fantasy football was 100% luck, then the best owner in any given league would have a 50% lifetime winning percentage, and the worst owner would have a 50% lifetime winning percentage.Obviously, fantasy football is neither 100% skill nor 100% luck. How much of it is luck? Well, in one of my leagues (that's been around about a decade), the owner with the highest lifetime winning percentage has a 60% winning percentage, and the owner with the lowest lifetime winning percentage has a 40% winning percentage. I'd say that that's a pretty good illustration of how luck plays a far bigger role in fantasy football than anyone wants to acknowledge.

Do you believe that luck has a role in a game of chess?

To some extent, yes. The role of luck is much smaller than the role of skill- if there's an extreme skill imbalance, there's not enough luck in the game to possibly tip the outcome away from the inevitable victory by the skilled party. I'm never going to beat a grandmaster. However, if the difference in skill levels is not greater than the "luck fudge factor", then luck definitely plays a role in the outcome. Sometimes I'll survey a chess board and see a brilliant move right away. You could show me that same chess board a week later and I might stare at it for an hour without seeing the same move. If my opponent happened to play me on the first day, he was a little bit unlucky. If he hit me on the second day, he was a bit lucky.It's like kicking field goals. Obviously kicking field goals is a skill, but that skill ebbs and flows. If my football team is playing the most accurate kicker in league history, and that kicker happens to go 0-3 that day, then I got lucky. If my football team is playing the least skilled kicker in league history and that kicker goes 3-3, then I got unlucky. The same sort of "luck" can exist in a chess match.I suppose that you could argue that I benefited from a lack of skill by the opposing kicker, but in my mind, if a guy makes 50 straight field goals and then I happen to be on the field when he misses his 51st, that's just dumb luck, plain and simple.

 

[Harrassment Panda]

It's funny you mention that because I was just going through some of my old stuff. In 2008 I had: Brees, Tomlinson, Lynch, Chris Johnson in his rookie year, Calvin Johnson, Ochocino, this team was loaded. Averaged something like 140 points a game, and seemed like every single week I would score insane amounts of points only to lose anyway. That team ended up 6-8.

Last year I had crap. Everybody got hurt. My best players were Jamaal Charles and Jerome Harrison, both of whom I got off waivers. That team went to the championship game and finished 9-5.

 

[Glaven]

If Fantasy Football is luck, how come I won all 23 of my fantasy football leagues last year, yet I've never won a game of Bingo ever in my life despite playing at the local bingo hall bi-monthly for the past 6 years? Explain that to me Dr. Einsteinium the third.

 

[Man of Constant Sorrow]

If fantasy football was 100% skill, then the best owner in any given league would have a 100% lifetime winning percentage, and the worst owner would have a 0% lifetime winning percentage.If fantasy football was 100% luck, then the best owner in any given league would have a 50% lifetime winning percentage, and the worst owner would have a 50% lifetime winning percentage.Obviously, fantasy football is neither 100% skill nor 100% luck. How much of it is luck? Well, in one of my leagues (that's been around about a decade), the owner with the highest lifetime winning percentage has a 60% winning percentage, and the owner with the lowest lifetime winning percentage has a 40% winning percentage. I'd say that that's a pretty good illustration of how luck plays a far bigger role in fantasy football than anyone wants to acknowledge.

Do you believe that luck has a role in a game of chess?

To some extent, yes. The role of luck is much smaller than the role of skill- if there's an extreme skill imbalance, there's not enough luck in the game to possibly tip the outcome away from the inevitable victory by the skilled party. I'm never going to beat a grandmaster. However, if the difference in skill levels is not greater than the "luck fudge factor", then luck definitely plays a role in the outcome. Sometimes I'll survey a chess board and see a brilliant move right away. You could show me that same chess board a week later and I might stare at it for an hour without seeing the same move. If my opponent happened to play me on the first day, he was a little bit unlucky. If he hit me on the second day, he was a bit lucky.It's like kicking field goals. Obviously kicking field goals is a skill, but that skill ebbs and flows. If my football team is playing the most accurate kicker in league history, and that kicker happens to go 0-3 that day, then I got lucky. If my football team is playing the least skilled kicker in league history and that kicker goes 3-3, then I got unlucky. The same sort of "luck" can exist in a chess match.I suppose that you could argue that I benefited from a lack of skill by the opposing kicker, but in my mind, if a guy makes 50 straight field goals and then I happen to be on the field when he misses his 51st, that's just dumb luck, plain and simple.

Do you believe that there exists any game of skill that does not involve luck?

 

[Ice Cream Man]

Someone much smarter than me once said that the absolute diehard, that tirelessly tracks depth charts, TC and preseason preformances, injuries, waivers, etc. is probably yielding about an extra 6%-10% advantage TOPS over the guy drafting straight from the grid without reading a thing. I think that's fairly close.

+1In rotisserie formats (if anyone plays those anymore) I would say it's probably a little higher.. 15%.. maybe.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

If Fantasy Football is luck, how come I won all 23 of my fantasy football leagues last year, yet I've never won a game of Bingo ever in my life despite playing at the local bingo hall bi-monthly for the past 6 years? Explain that to me Dr. Einsteinium the third.

just lucky i guess...

 

[Chigurh]

There's a whole lot of luck in poker, but there are people who have figured out how to consistently win and can make a living playing such a luck-dependent game. Similarly, there are ways of minimizing the effects of luck when playing fantasy football.

For more skilled fantasy footballers, luck is just a minor nuisance. For crappy fantasy footballers, luck is the ticket to championship (or the crutch to use when the season falls apart).

 

[LittlePhatty]

I don't really see why this is skill. Couldn't I take any person, give them the tools to prepare and put them in the same position? Is it a skill if you simply put in the time to pour over information that anyone can attain?

Processing information is absolutely a skill. Yes. Making decisions based on that information is a skill.DiStefano described it nicely above.If a game is 100% chance then you have no decisions to make - no deciding who to draft or who to start.Fantasy Football would not be anywhere near as popular if you drafted players randomly by drawing them out of a hat.

 

[JohnnyU]

Skill builds you a good team and possibly gets you to the playoffs, but luck wins the title for you.