What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

If Alabama And Clemson Played Again Next Week... (1 Viewer)

If Alabama were to face Clemson next Monday night on a neutral field, who wins and by how much?

  • Clemson by 5 points or more

    Votes: 74 74.0%
  • Clemson by 1-4 points

    Votes: 9 9.0%
  • Alabama by 1-4 points

    Votes: 6 6.0%
  • Alabama by 5 points or more

    Votes: 11 11.0%

  • Total voters
    100
Would prefer to know more details, such as travel time and exact location, but with limited details I say Alabama would beat Clemson (-1.5), winning straight up as the underdog. Double-digit win. The next day's story line would explain how a more focused & motivated Bama team caught the Tigers in a classic letdown spot after Clemson's huge upset win and less than a week to prepare after all the celebrating.

 
This was the worst D Saban had at Bama. If OU would have showed up in the first quarter, they’d have won. 

I underestimated Clemson because their schedule was ####, I saw them play Cuse, and the ACC was gross. 

That said, they were the superior team. Clemson recruits amazing D lineman and Lawrence and Ross are just insane good. I think Clemson wins a seven game series vs Bama 4-1. 
Yes, and if we are using the classic 2-3-2 format, bama loses game 5 and the series at home.

 
What did Alabama average on the ground, 8 yards a carry? 

When you have numbers like those you win most of the time. Clemson did nearly everything right but I think Alabama wins 6-7 out of 10. 
4 yards per carry so I guess Bama is down to about 3 out of 10 now.

Did you watch the game?   Clemson was better in pretty much every aspect of the game.

 
4 yards per carry so I guess Bama is down to about 3 out of 10 now.

Did you watch the game?   Clemson was better in pretty much every aspect of the game.
Well I didn’t look it up when I wrote that. The guy who called me lazy was dead on. It sure seemed like Alabama was able to run the ball at will so I’m surprised by that number. 

 
I think both teams have the talent and ability to win on any given Saturday (or Monday).  I have no doubt that Bama prepared well and was ready to play.  Clemson was better prepared and, it appeared, more focused to play this game.  They were not to be denied this year.  It happens.  Bama has been there as have other schools.  This was just Clemson's year.  

If they played again in two weeks I'd take Clemson to win that one too.  

 
Clemson didn’t win because of lucky plays or fluke situations. Anyone suggesting Alabama would win is either a homer or fishing. 
Clemson clearly out played them, but there were more than one miracle catch made and a guy that blew an ankle while battling a receiver at the LOS which resulted in a TD. BTW, I hate Alabama. It might be more out of jealousy than anything but I love to see them lose. Also, I can't see Bama doing something like calling a run on 4th down with the field goal kicker when they needed 6 yards. I think Clemson still wins by 5, but I think it would be a lot closer than that game. 

 
He's not right at all.  Look at the stats.  Total yards belonged to Clemson.  Turnover margin won by Clemson.  3rd down efficiency 10/15 for Clemson vs 4/13 Bama.  Bama was penalized 6 to 1.  Time of possession was slightly in Bama's favor 31/28.  On what planet did Bama control that game?
Time of Possession in the first half was 19 minutes Bama, 10 minutes Clemson with the remaining 60 seconds divided between them. I was floored by that stat at the half considering the score. Bama was definitely grinding it out and controlling the clock better than Clemson, but Lawrence and the TO made all the difference. 

 
Clemson clearly out played them, but there were more than one miracle catch made and a guy that blew an ankle while battling a receiver at the LOS which resulted in a TD. BTW, I hate Alabama. It might be more out of jealousy than anything but I love to see them lose. Also, I can't see Bama doing something like calling a run on 4th down with the field goal kicker when they needed 6 yards. I think Clemson still wins by 5, but I think it would be a lot closer than that game. 
Another somewhat related variable- Alabama made a lot of decisions in the second half that made the final margin much bigger than if they'd played straight up (or come up with better red zone play calls). Their first three drives of the second half all ended on failed fourth down conversion attempts deep in Clemson territory.  Clemson wasn't forcing three and outs, they were the definition of a "bend but don't break" defense. And most football fans know that "bend but don't break" defense is a mirage, it's mostly just luck.

I perused the computer ratings systems for a bit and most of them have something similar to Sagarin- Clemson as a slight favorite. Sounds right to me.  I voted "Clemson by 1-4" and if they played a seven game series I'd vote for Clemson winning 4-3.

 
Time of Possession in the first half was 19 minutes Bama, 10 minutes Clemson with the remaining 60 seconds divided between them. I was floored by that stat at the half considering the score. Bama was definitely grinding it out and controlling the clock better than Clemson, but Lawrence and the TO made all the difference. 
Psssssst......they play TWO halves.  TOP was split 31/28.  

3rd down conversion was a huge factor in this. 1015 for Clemson vs 4/13 for Bama.  That's telling.  

 
Psssssst......they play TWO halves.  TOP was split 31/28.  

3rd down conversion was a huge factor in this. 1015 for Clemson vs 4/13 for Bama.  That's telling.  
I realize they play 2 halves, smart ###. Had JB's buddy said first half, his argument would have a shred of credibility as Bama controlled the clock big time. Second half, not so much. 

 
Psssssst......they play TWO halves.  TOP was split 31/28.  

3rd down conversion was a huge factor in this. 1015 for Clemson vs 4/13 for Bama.  That's telling.  
It is, but I'm not sure if it's in the way you mean. Third down conversion rate isn't a particularly useful stat when it comes to evaluating the relative strength of teams or predicting their futures. It's got way too much randomness and variance. Other stats (sack rate, average passing yards/attempt) are better at predicting future third down conversion rates. Link

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Trevor was 8 for 11 on third down for 240 and two TDs.  Most of that was on third down and more than 5 yards to go.  Not saying it matters much with stat variance.  Just a credit to how poised he was in the pocket.  

 
Well I didn’t look it up when I wrote that. The guy who called me lazy was dead on. It sure seemed like Alabama was able to run the ball at will so I’m surprised by that number. 
You are probably remembering when Clemson had a solid lead already. There were some nice runs but more due to Clemson playing pass up by 21. 

 
Trevor was 8 for 11 on third down for 240 and two TDs.  Most of that was on third down and more than 5 yards to go.  Not saying it matters much with stat variance.  Just a credit to how poised he was in the pocket.  
He was. If he continues to improve, he’ll be the most coveted #1 pick in at least a decade. There haven’t been any since Luck/Newton in 2011/2012. Some good QBs but none of those Manning level QBs. 

 
Had a friend send me this:
Your friend is blinded by bias.

I'm surrounded by lifelong Alabama fans, it's a religion here. A few guys aren't Alabama fans but hate Clemson (South Carolina grads). Every one of us agreed, Clemson was by far the better team on that field.  We're split when talking about a rematch. 

 
He was. If he continues to improve, he’ll be the most coveted #1 pick in at least a decade. There haven’t been any since Luck/Newton in 2011/2012. Some good QBs but none of those Manning level QBs. 
I want to disagree but can't. 

Even Goff/Wentz wasn't at that level. 

 
He was. If he continues to improve, he’ll be the most coveted #1 pick in at least a decade. There haven’t been any since Luck/Newton in 2011/2012. Some good QBs but none of those Manning level QBs. 
It's been mentioned already but Lawrence wears 16 because of Manning (UT days).  He studies film like Manning and is said to have a keen ability to quickly retain what is studied. I've watched every Clemson game this year and he has routinely made pre-snap audibles based on defensive alignments/blitz formations like he was a senior. 

He's that freshman slim right now but I'd guess he'll be 6'6 225+ or so by the time his draft day comes.  Imagine P. Manning but with running skills and the ability to scramble from trouble in the pocket.  

Some fan base is going to be very happy in April 2021. 

 
I realize they play 2 halves, smart ###. Had JB's buddy said first half, his argument would have a shred of credibility as Bama controlled the clock big time. Second half, not so much. 
Time of Possession is useless but also have to consider that Clemson lost a possession because of a pick six.   The pick six was because of a great play by the CB and a great defensive call by Venables.  So Alabama benefits on TOP in the first half because Clemson outcoached and outplayed them in that example.

 
It is, but I'm not sure if it's in the way you mean. Third down conversion rate isn't a particularly useful stat when it comes to evaluating the relative strength of teams or predicting their futures. It's got way too much randomness and variance. Other stats (sack rate, average passing yards/attempt) are better at predicting future third down conversion rates. Link
Not trying to predict anything.  This is a tale of the tape.  3rd down conversion absolutely matters when trying to figure out what went right, what went wrong.  Clemson converted 67% of the time; Bama 30% on 3rd.  It matters. 

 
It's been mentioned already but Lawrence wears 16 because of Manning (UT days).  He studies film like Manning and is said to have a keen ability to quickly retain what is studied. I've watched every Clemson game this year and he has routinely made pre-snap audibles based on defensive alignments/blitz formations like he was a senior. 

He's that freshman slim right now but I'd guess he'll be 6'6 225+ or so by the time his draft day comes.  Imagine P. Manning but with running skills and the ability to scramble from trouble in the pocket.  

Some fan base is going to be very happy in April 2021. 
Patriots will tank after Brady retires, Belichick will step down, hand the reins to McDaniels and the Patriots will draft Lawrence 1.01.  Take that to the bank brohans. 

 
A week would not be enough time for ALA to recover from the beat down.  Clemson had an incredible game plan and stuck to it. Alabama was totally lost after the first quarter. They reacted so poorly to just about everything after the 1st q.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Your friend is blinded by bias.

I'm surrounded by lifelong Alabama fans, it's a religion here. A few guys aren't Alabama fans but hate Clemson (South Carolina grads). Every one of us agreed, Clemson was by far the better team on that field.  We're split when talking about a rematch. 
Actually, he hates Alabama. 

 
''If there are any Big Ten teams that shoot for a national championship, they're damn fools.  You play to win the Big Ten championship, and if you win it and go to the Rose Bowl and win it, then you've had a great season. If they choose to vote you number one, then you're the national champion. But a national champion is a mythical national champion, and I think you guys ought to know that. It's mythical.''

https://www.nytimes.com/1989/08/27/sports/college-football-89-defining-the-80-s-no-easy-task.html?pagewanted=all
It was mythical when Bo spoke about it 30 years ago, and its still mythical today, whatever playoff system they've put in place in the meantime, and it will always be so as long as college sports are tied to academic institutions.  The only thing that's changed is that all of the great bowls have lost all meaning and tradition.  How do I know this?  Because Ohio State won the Rose Bowl this year, defeating the Pac 10/12 Champion, and no one thinks they had a great season.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top