If you had to start a Dynasty team today with a WR (1 Viewer)

[Pickle Rody]

Surely this poll is on the assumption that you can only get these guys in the 1st/early 2nd round of drafts. You could potentially draft Fitz and then get Dez later, Dez shouldn't be on this poll.

Yes, I think you are correct in this assumption Don.....but don't forget, there might actually be some owners out there that WILL take Dez first overall in a start-up dynasty, over AJ & Fitz.

 

[vfourmax]

Surely this poll is on the assumption that you can only get these guys in the 1st/early 2nd round of drafts. You could potentially draft Fitz and then get Dez later, Dez shouldn't be on this poll.

Yes, I think you are correct in this assumption Don.....but don't forget, there might actually be some owners out there that WILL take Dez first overall in a start-up dynasty, over AJ & Fitz.

Like I have pointed out plainly earlier I have no prior experience as far as playing in a dynasty format. Perhaps first off to make sure I understand the dynasty format correctly you are assembling a team that preferably that your key players can serve you and win you games for a number of years?

This poll is set up if you were to be building a dynasty team starting today with your first pick being a wide receiver. Granted Fitz has been a beast over the last few years and warrants a place as one of the top recievers in the league. But and it is a big but, as far as future production for Fitz is concerned a lot has changed in his current situation compared to the last couple of years. First off and the biggest change of course is the change at QB with Warner retiring. Is Leinart going to be anywhere near the level of a Curt Warner? Is he going to make the right reads, deliver the ball with the accuracy or the timing of Curt Warner? Is he going to be as calm in the pocket or be scrambling around trying to dump the ball to his backs?

Then you have Boldan leaving, again this could have a drastic effect on how the defenses align in their coverages over the past. Granted Fitz was the better receiver but Boldan was a threat in his own rights and defenses had to respect that threat. Is Beaston or any of the other receivers going to be considered at that same threat level as Boldan or are the defenses going to key on Fitz or perhaps blitz a less experienced Leinhart more making it a more difficult prospect to deliver the ball to Fitz?

As far as CJ is concerned I am not yet convinced that the team/QB situation is such as to allow him to reach the potential that his own skills and talent is capable of.

These are reasons that if picking today that I would have to give the nod to a choice of Dez. The team and associated cast of the offense that he is going into has all the key pieces in place. There are no questions about the level of play the QB is capable of playing at, There are enough really potent offensive weapons on the field and in place that defenses will have no choice but to play spread out. If you concetrate on one weapon then the one you neglected will burn you. I predict that if Dez lives up to the hype about his abilities then you will be seeing the type of production reflective of what TO brought to the team a few years ago. That has to rate right up there with the Fitz/Warner, Moss/ Brady and TO/Romo of the last few years.

Yes I realize that there is no history to rate Dez at that level but on the other hand Leinhart has his questions to that duo and Stafford is a big question as well. Favre has shown in Minnesota that high level Quarterback play can make a lot of difference in the success of a receiver. Now if Fitz or Cj had Brees throwing the rock of course that would take Dez out of the equation but with CURRENT team situations would that not level the field more to Dez perhaps at least being on equal footing as far as a choice?

 

[Pickle Rody]

Surely this poll is on the assumption that you can only get these guys in the 1st/early 2nd round of drafts. You could potentially draft Fitz and then get Dez later, Dez shouldn't be on this poll.

Yes, I think you are correct in this assumption Don.....but don't forget, there might actually be some owners out there that WILL take Dez first overall in a start-up dynasty, over AJ & Fitz.

Like I have pointed out plainly earlier I have no prior experience as far as playing in a dynasty format. Perhaps first off to make sure I understand the dynasty format correctly you are assembling a team that preferably that your key players can serve you and win you games for a number of years? Not just games, but Championships!

This poll is set up if you were to be building a dynasty team starting today with your first pick being a wide receiver. Granted Fitz has been a beast over the last few years and warrants a place as one of the top recievers in the league. But and it is a big but, as far as future production for Fitz is concerned a lot has changed in his current situation compared to the last couple of years. First off and the biggest change of course is the change at QB with Warner retiring. Is Leinart going to be anywhere near the level of a Curt Warner? Is he going to make the right reads, deliver the ball with the accuracy or the timing of Curt Warner? Is he going to be as calm in the pocket or be scrambling around trying to dump the ball to his backs?

Then you have Boldan leaving, again this could have a drastic effect on how the defenses align in their coverages over the past. Granted Fitz was the better receiver but Boldan was a threat in his own rights and defenses had to respect that threat. Is Beaston or any of the other receivers going to be considered at that same threat level as Boldan or are the defenses going to key on Fitz or perhaps blitz a less experienced Leinhart more making it a more difficult prospect to deliver the ball to Fitz?

As far as CJ is concerned I am not yet convinced that the team/QB situation is such as to allow him to reach the potential that his own skills and talent is capable of.

These are reasons that if picking today that I would have to give the nod to a choice of Dez. The team and associated cast of the offense that he is going into has all the key pieces in place. There are no questions about the level of play the QB is capable of playing at, There are enough really potent offensive weapons on the field and in place that defenses will have no choice but to play spread out. If you concetrate on one weapon then the one you neglected will burn you. I predict that if Dez lives up to the hype about his abilities then you will be seeing the type of production reflective of what TO brought to the team a few years ago. That has to rate right up there with the Fitz/Warner, Moss/ Brady and TO/Romo of the last few years.

Yes I realize that there is no history to rate Dez at that level but on the other hand Leinhart has his questions to that duo and Stafford is a big question as well. Favre has shown in Minnesota that high level Quarterback play can make a lot of difference in the success of a receiver. Now if Fitz or Cj had Brees throwing the rock of course that would take Dez out of the equation but with CURRENT team situations would that not level the field more to Dez perhaps at least being on equal footing as far as a choice? Not quite, but yes, the field is leveled to some degree.

Like I stated before, I'd much rather put my money on DeSean Jackson....but any way you slice it, that is just my opinion.......just as you have yours. If you want me to find fault with your thought process (if you absolutely have to take a WR #1 in a dynasty start-up), I don't think I can do that because it ultimately becomes a matter of preference.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Surely this poll is on the assumption that you can only get these guys in the 1st/early 2nd round of drafts. You could potentially draft Fitz and then get Dez later, Dez shouldn't be on this poll.

Yes, I think you are correct in this assumption Don.....but don't forget, there might actually be some owners out there that WILL take Dez first overall in a start-up dynasty, over AJ & Fitz.

I was going to come in and pt that out... if you want Fitz or AJ, you have to use your mid 1st... if you want Marshall you may be able to get him late 1st / early 2nd; Calvin seems to go after Marshall so hes usually early 2nd... meaning you could get a 1st rd RB with Calvin. and as pointed out you can get Dez / Crab late 2nd even maybe early 3rd... which means you could have a 1st and 2nd RB then pick Dez / Crab.Fitz and AJ are the most talented and should produce the most FF pts per game.

Calvin is over-valued; I already spoke my opinion in the Calvin thread

Marshall is valued just right and if you can snag him after the turn then thats a great move

but the real value has to be getting either one of Dez / Crab in the 3rd round after you have a solid RB core or RB / Super stud QB.

 

[SSOG]

Okay, new guy here that has never done a dynasty league but has an interest in such so trying to learn.I voted for Dez Bryant and yes I know that at this point he is totally unproven and perhaps a total crapshoot BUT if the gamble were to payoff as to the hype could he possibly actually be one that could anchor a team for a long time?Part of my reasons for making the pick I did over other previously proven receivers is he will be playing for the Cowboys and Jerry Jones is well known for spending the dollars to have quite a few weapons on the field at any given time. Miles Austin will be the one that pulls the double coverage and Whitten and Williams cannot be forgotten not to mention Felix Jones by the opposing defenses. Therefore as Bryant is in his learning curve in the NFL he likely will be facing the lesser backs in coverage at first anyway to increase the chances of having rookie upside.

If you really think that Miles Austin will be getting the double teams, then you should have voted Miles Austin, because the guy who gets the double teams is the more productive guy. Defenses don't double-cover the 1,000 yard receiver and leave the 1,400 receiver on an island- they double the 1,400 guy and dare the 1,000 guy to beat them.People dramatically overrate the impact that tough coverage has on fantasy numbers. NFL #1s face tougher coverage than NFL #2s, but they also produce substantially more fantasy points. If a WR is talented enough to be considered in this poll, then he's too talented for you to worry about what coverages he's facing (unless he's getting triple-covered, which is an incredibly rare circumstance).Anyway, when you're drafting in the first 3-4 rounds of a startup draft, your #1 concern should be landing a guy who will almost certainly still be a fantasy factor 3-4 years from now. If you look at dynasty teams that struggle, they're usually the teams that take Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Joseph Addai, or Marion Barber high in startups. That's why Dez Bryant is a bad choice as the #1 WR off the board- you should be far more concerned with a player's floor than you are with his ceiling at that stage of the draft.

Fitz this year with Bolden being gone taking away some of the defensive pressure and with Warner retiring I would think if anything would see a possible regression in his numbers, not because he is not as good but the supporting staff around him is not as good. CJ, well I am just not sold on his current situation and supporting cast may ever develop to the level to open up the same potentials as Dez has surrounding him in Dallas.Maybe I am looking at this wrong but yes I am drinking the Dez kool-aid! Thanks for the welcome as well!

The reason Arizona paid Fitzgerald huge money and let Boldin walk is because Fitzgerald was beating tough coverages and Boldin was feasting on the scraps left behind. In games since 2005 where Anquan Boldin didn't play, Fitzgerald has averaged over 100 yards and 1 TD- that's like an average season of 1600/16. If anything, it's possible Boldin has been holding Fitzgerald back!The formula for rating players in redraft leagues is "Talent + Opportunity = Production". In dynasty leagues, though, the best formula is "Talent + Talent + Talent + Talent + Talent + Talent + (opportunity) = production". Opportunity changes radically from year to year. Talent remains constant, and Fitzgerald is the most talented WR in the league. Plus, he's only 27, which is incredibly young for a stud WR- typically stud WRs produce well into their thirties. Fitzgerald probably has 7-8 more elite seasons left in him.I think the big key to succeeding in Dynasty is to keep it simple. Land the most talented players, don't worry about their age unless they're near the decline point (i.e. around 28 for RBs or 32 for WRs). Don't overvalue youth, because youth isn't valuable in and of itself. If the worst WR in the league is only 19 years old, he doesn't have any value- sure, he's young, but he's the worst WR in the league! Talent is more important than youth.No need to take this as gospel, of course. These are just some observations from my experience in dynasty- obviously someone else's might differ radically.

 

[vfourmax]

Okay, new guy here that has never done a dynasty league but has an interest in such so trying to learn.I voted for Dez Bryant and yes I know that at this point he is totally unproven and perhaps a total crapshoot BUT if the gamble were to payoff as to the hype could he possibly actually be one that could anchor a team for a long time?Part of my reasons for making the pick I did over other previously proven receivers is he will be playing for the Cowboys and Jerry Jones is well known for spending the dollars to have quite a few weapons on the field at any given time. Miles Austin will be the one that pulls the double coverage and Whitten and Williams cannot be forgotten not to mention Felix Jones by the opposing defenses. Therefore as Bryant is in his learning curve in the NFL he likely will be facing the lesser backs in coverage at first anyway to increase the chances of having rookie upside.

If you really think that Miles Austin will be getting the double teams, then you should have voted Miles Austin, because the guy who gets the double teams is the more productive guy. Defenses don't double-cover the 1,000 yard receiver and leave the 1,400 receiver on an island- they double the 1,400 guy and dare the 1,000 guy to beat them.People dramatically overrate the impact that tough coverage has on fantasy numbers. NFL #1s face tougher coverage than NFL #2s, but they also produce substantially more fantasy points. If a WR is talented enough to be considered in this poll, then he's too talented for you to worry about what coverages he's facing (unless he's getting triple-covered, which is an incredibly rare circumstance).Anyway, when you're drafting in the first 3-4 rounds of a startup draft, your #1 concern should be landing a guy who will almost certainly still be a fantasy factor 3-4 years from now. If you look at dynasty teams that struggle, they're usually the teams that take Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Joseph Addai, or Marion Barber high in startups. That's why Dez Bryant is a bad choice as the #1 WR off the board- you should be far more concerned with a player's floor than you are with his ceiling at that stage of the draft.

Fitz this year with Bolden being gone taking away some of the defensive pressure and with Warner retiring I would think if anything would see a possible regression in his numbers, not because he is not as good but the supporting staff around him is not as good. CJ, well I am just not sold on his current situation and supporting cast may ever develop to the level to open up the same potentials as Dez has surrounding him in Dallas.Maybe I am looking at this wrong but yes I am drinking the Dez kool-aid! Thanks for the welcome as well!

The reason Arizona paid Fitzgerald huge money and let Boldin walk is because Fitzgerald was beating tough coverages and Boldin was feasting on the scraps left behind. In games since 2005 where Anquan Boldin didn't play, Fitzgerald has averaged over 100 yards and 1 TD- that's like an average season of 1600/16. If anything, it's possible Boldin has been holding Fitzgerald back!The formula for rating players in redraft leagues is "Talent + Opportunity = Production". In dynasty leagues, though, the best formula is "Talent + Talent + Talent + Talent + Talent + Talent + (opportunity) = production". Opportunity changes radically from year to year. Talent remains constant, and Fitzgerald is the most talented WR in the league. Plus, he's only 27, which is incredibly young for a stud WR- typically stud WRs produce well into their thirties. Fitzgerald probably has 7-8 more elite seasons left in him.I think the big key to succeeding in Dynasty is to keep it simple. Land the most talented players, don't worry about their age unless they're near the decline point (i.e. around 28 for RBs or 32 for WRs). Don't overvalue youth, because youth isn't valuable in and of itself. If the worst WR in the league is only 19 years old, he doesn't have any value- sure, he's young, but he's the worst WR in the league! Talent is more important than youth.No need to take this as gospel, of course. These are just some observations from my experience in dynasty- obviously someone else's might differ radically.

What you point out makes total sense, maybe I as I try to examine things I am actually overthinking things and missing the obvious. Definately will not be the first time that I have been wrong in my life, just the second! LOL! Thanks for the viewpoints that have been pointed out.

 

[massraider]

Surely this poll is on the assumption that you can only get these guys in the 1st/early 2nd round of drafts. You could potentially draft Fitz and then get Dez later, Dez shouldn't be on this poll.

Yes, I think you are correct in this assumption Don.....but don't forget, there might actually be some owners out there that WILL take Dez first overall in a start-up dynasty, over AJ & Fitz.

Like I have pointed out plainly earlier I have no prior experience as far as playing in a dynasty format. Perhaps first off to make sure I understand the dynasty format correctly you are assembling a team that preferably that your key players can serve you and win you games for a number of years?

This poll is set up if you were to be building a dynasty team starting today with your first pick being a wide receiver. Granted Fitz has been a beast over the last few years and warrants a place as one of the top recievers in the league. But and it is a big but, as far as future production for Fitz is concerned a lot has changed in his current situation compared to the last couple of years. First off and the biggest change of course is the change at QB with Warner retiring. Is Leinart going to be anywhere near the level of a Curt Warner? Is he going to make the right reads, deliver the ball with the accuracy or the timing of Curt Warner? Is he going to be as calm in the pocket or be scrambling around trying to dump the ball to his backs?

Then you have Boldan leaving, again this could have a drastic effect on how the defenses align in their coverages over the past. Granted Fitz was the better receiver but Boldan was a threat in his own rights and defenses had to respect that threat. Is Beaston or any of the other receivers going to be considered at that same threat level as Boldan or are the defenses going to key on Fitz or perhaps blitz a less experienced Leinhart more making it a more difficult prospect to deliver the ball to Fitz?

As far as CJ is concerned I am not yet convinced that the team/QB situation is such as to allow him to reach the potential that his own skills and talent is capable of.

These are reasons that if picking today that I would have to give the nod to a choice of Dez. The team and associated cast of the offense that he is going into has all the key pieces in place. There are no questions about the level of play the QB is capable of playing at, There are enough really potent offensive weapons on the field and in place that defenses will have no choice but to play spread out. If you concetrate on one weapon then the one you neglected will burn you. I predict that if Dez lives up to the hype about his abilities then you will be seeing the type of production reflective of what TO brought to the team a few years ago. That has to rate right up there with the Fitz/Warner, Moss/ Brady and TO/Romo of the last few years.

Yes I realize that there is no history to rate Dez at that level but on the other hand Leinhart has his questions to that duo and Stafford is a big question as well. Favre has shown in Minnesota that high level Quarterback play can make a lot of difference in the success of a receiver. Now if Fitz or Cj had Brees throwing the rock of course that would take Dez out of the equation but with CURRENT team situations would that not level the field more to Dez perhaps at least being on equal footing as far as a choice?

Briefly:Leinart could be gone in a year.

and

Better prospects than Dez have flamed out completely at the NFL level.

 

[SSOG]

Better prospects than Dez have flamed out completely at the NFL level.

Like Charles Rodgers. A lot of people forget this now, but at the time, Charles Rodgers was an other-level prospect. Basically, the 3 best WR prospects of the past decade were Calvin, Fitz, and Rodgers, and all three were viewed as sure-fire, can't-miss, instant studs. People were trading a ton to land Rodgers. As far as 2nd-tier WR prospects this decade, you've got your Crabtrees, your Andre Johnsons, your Dez Bryants... your Roy Williamses, your David Terrells, and your Braylon Edwardses. You're looking at about 50% of "can't miss studs" that actually wind up not missing.Not to keep beating a dead horse, but Dez Bryant's absolute ceiling is... what, 5% more than what Fitzgerald already is? But his floor is 95% less than what Fitzgerald already is. Bryant might wind up being the next Randy Moss, in which case taking him 1st overall will seem brilliant in hindsight... but as EBF is fond of saying, buying Bryant that high is buying him at his upside... which is never a great move, and is only ever a good move if he lives up to his upside. There's not a lot of value in that selection.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Better prospects than Dez have flamed out completely at the NFL level.

Like Charles Rodgers. A lot of people forget this now, but at the time, Charles Rodgers was an other-level prospect. Basically, the 3 best WR prospects of the past decade were Calvin, Fitz, and Rodgers, and all three were viewed as sure-fire, can't-miss, instant studs. People were trading a ton to land Rodgers. As far as 2nd-tier WR prospects this decade, you've got your Crabtrees, your Andre Johnsons, your Dez Bryants... your Roy Williamses, your David Terrells, and your Braylon Edwardses. You're looking at about 50% of "can't miss studs" that actually wind up not missing.Not to keep beating a dead horse, but Dez Bryant's absolute ceiling is... what, 5% more than what Fitzgerald already is? But his floor is 95% less than what Fitzgerald already is. Bryant might wind up being the next Randy Moss, in which case taking him 1st overall will seem brilliant in hindsight... but as EBF is fond of saying, buying Bryant that high is buying him at his upside... which is never a great move, and is only ever a good move if he lives up to his upside. There's not a lot of value in that selection.

Andre Johnson was in that can't miss category as well, he wasn't a 2nd tier Wr prospect.

 

[SSOG]

Better prospects than Dez have flamed out completely at the NFL level.

Like Charles Rodgers. A lot of people forget this now, but at the time, Charles Rodgers was an other-level prospect. Basically, the 3 best WR prospects of the past decade were Calvin, Fitz, and Rodgers, and all three were viewed as sure-fire, can't-miss, instant studs. People were trading a ton to land Rodgers. As far as 2nd-tier WR prospects this decade, you've got your Crabtrees, your Andre Johnsons, your Dez Bryants... your Roy Williamses, your David Terrells, and your Braylon Edwardses. You're looking at about 50% of "can't miss studs" that actually wind up not missing.Not to keep beating a dead horse, but Dez Bryant's absolute ceiling is... what, 5% more than what Fitzgerald already is? But his floor is 95% less than what Fitzgerald already is. Bryant might wind up being the next Randy Moss, in which case taking him 1st overall will seem brilliant in hindsight... but as EBF is fond of saying, buying Bryant that high is buying him at his upside... which is never a great move, and is only ever a good move if he lives up to his upside. There's not a lot of value in that selection.

Andre Johnson was in that can't miss category as well, he wasn't a 2nd tier Wr prospect.

My recollection of the situation was that Andre Johnson was viewed as great, but clearly behind Charles Rogers. Which isn't to say that my recollection is infallible (it's far from it), it's just to say that's how I remember the perceptions shaking out.Edit: Detroit has drafted so many WRs in the high first round that I can't even remember who is who anymore. Changed "Roy Williams" to "Charles Rogers".

Edit #2: to support my faulty memory with some more concrete evidence, here's a thread from back then of people posting their rookie drafts. There are 23 rookie drafts in that thread. In the 23 drafts, Charles Rogers went #1 seventeen times, #2 five times, and #3 once (average ADP = 1.3). Andre Johnson didn't go #1 in any draft, he went #2 just seven times, went #3 seven more times, went #4 five times, went #5 three times, and went #6 once (average ADP = 3.3). In the 23 drafts posted, Andre Johnson was not once taken ahead of Charles Rogers. There was a 96% chance that Rogers would be gone by pick #3, but just a 30% chance that Andre would be gone by pick #3. He was highly rated, but nowhere near Rogers' class.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Better prospects than Dez have flamed out completely at the NFL level.

Like Charles Rodgers. A lot of people forget this now, but at the time, Charles Rodgers was an other-level prospect. Basically, the 3 best WR prospects of the past decade were Calvin, Fitz, and Rodgers, and all three were viewed as sure-fire, can't-miss, instant studs. People were trading a ton to land Rodgers. As far as 2nd-tier WR prospects this decade, you've got your Crabtrees, your Andre Johnsons, your Dez Bryants... your Roy Williamses, your David Terrells, and your Braylon Edwardses. You're looking at about 50% of "can't miss studs" that actually wind up not missing.Not to keep beating a dead horse, but Dez Bryant's absolute ceiling is... what, 5% more than what Fitzgerald already is? But his floor is 95% less than what Fitzgerald already is. Bryant might wind up being the next Randy Moss, in which case taking him 1st overall will seem brilliant in hindsight... but as EBF is fond of saying, buying Bryant that high is buying him at his upside... which is never a great move, and is only ever a good move if he lives up to his upside. There's not a lot of value in that selection.

Andre Johnson was in that can't miss category as well, he wasn't a 2nd tier Wr prospect.

My recollection of the situation was that Andre Johnson was viewed as great, but clearly behind Charles Rogers. Which isn't to say that my recollection is infallible (it's far from it), it's just to say that's how I remember the perceptions shaking out.Edit: Detroit has drafted so many WRs in the high first round that I can't even remember who is who anymore. Changed "Roy Williams" to "Charles Rogers".

Edit #2: to support my faulty memory with some more concrete evidence, here's a thread from back then of people posting their rookie drafts. There are 23 rookie drafts in that thread. In the 23 drafts, Charles Rogers went #1 seventeen times, #2 five times, and #3 once (average ADP = 1.3). Andre Johnson didn't go #1 in any draft, he went #2 just seven times, went #3 seven more times, went #4 five times, went #5 three times, and went #6 once (average ADP = 3.3). In the 23 drafts posted, Andre Johnson was not once taken ahead of Charles Rogers. There was a 96% chance that Rogers would be gone by pick #3, but just a 30% chance that Andre would be gone by pick #3. He was highly rated, but nowhere near Rogers' class.

Rogers may have been the most highly touted WR of the decade so that doesnt mean AJ isnt still in the top tier class. Also i remember many draft pundits having the two equal or even AJ ahead. Rookie drafts on this site don't necessarily mean much as Rogers was in fact drafted 2nd and AJ 3rd. One such after only a few minutes of lookinghttp://www.draftcountdown.com/archive/2003/2003-Rankings.php

I'd prolly put Calvin and Rogers as 1A and 1B as far as prospects with AJ and Fitz being just behind....then a pretty good dropoff.

 

[dickey moe]

Calvin Johnson - not even close.signed,Calvin owner in 7 dynasty leagues.

Did you have fun losing all 7 of your leagues last season?

 

[dickey moe]

Seriously though, I continue to be amazed of those happy to rank CJ ahead of Andre Johnson and Fitz. I'll be happy to eat crow, but I think a lot of owners are going to be very disappointed next season.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I voted Johnson. I pass on Marshall because with his violent play and the types of injuries he's had he could very well be done in a couple years.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I'll admit I'm no dynasty expert, so could someone tell me the rationale behind picking a WR who has never caught an NFL pass? I can see arguments for just about any of the others, but I don't understand Dez even being in the discussion.

 

[doowain]

If your gonna put Dez up there you should include Crabtree. CJ > Fitz > AJ > Marshall > Crabtree >>>> Dez At least that is my top 5 rankings.

Sweet. Let's start another Dez vs. Crabtree thread. Weeeeeeeeeeeee.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

One of the great things about fantasy football is the difference of opinions. It's been my experience that people in general put too much stock into the very young WR's that show a little talent. Owners want to propel them into the elite 3 because all they can think about is how many years that receiver has left to play in the league.

Although that angle is salavating, so many times owners diminish the value of aging Wr's or WR's that are currently in their prime. I have no problem with anyone who likes Fitz over AJ or AJ over Fitz. Those are the top two dynasty receivers in the game today. Personally, I like AJ over Fitz because of the unknown we have in Leinart heading into this season. However, if Fitz had 110 receptions and 1350, 14 Td's because he was the only real passing option on the team AND their numbers are inflated because their strength of schedule is actually SUPER weak this upcoming season I wouldn't be shocked.

However, how do people really justify in rating Crabtree over either of these guys? How do you even look someone in the eye with a straight face and say Dez Bryant as the No. 1 dynasty receiver when he hasn't caught a pass, crazy.

I can see why people would say Calvin Johnson, but those people are off. They have listened to the hype and bought into someone that has a cool nickname. Don't get me wrong, he'll be good, could be top 10 but he's not NO. 1.

I'd have a tough time ranking 3 and 4 but I'd probably go Brandon Marshall No. 3, D. Jackson No. 4 and Miles Austin No. 5.

I would have Jackson NO. 5 and Austin No. 4, even possibly NO. 3 but the addition of Bryant scares me to some degree but we have questions marks in Miami for Marshall and a new QB for Jackson too.

I personally like Sydney Rice and Vincent Jackson before I'd select Crabtree or Dez Bryant. Crabtree is to take HUGE steps forward to be considered in the same class as these guys have produced in the NFL as to where Crabtree has shown flashes of brilliance but nothing sustained.

 

[quicknas]

i could make an argument for miles austin

 

[Pickle Rody]

i could make an argument for miles austin

Not really. I'd need to see another year like last year to convince me he's worth taking as the #1 WR in a dynasty start-up.eta: I honestly do not see that happening though.

 

[Christo]

Seriously though, I continue to be amazed of those happy to rank CJ ahead of Andre Johnson and Fitz. I'll be happy to eat crow, but I think a lot of owners are going to be very disappointed next season.

How about the season after that? And the one after that? Perhaps three years from now? Four? 5?

 

[EBF]

However, how do people really justify in rating Crabtree over either of these guys? How do you even look someone in the eye with a straight face and say Dez Bryant as the No. 1 dynasty receiver when he hasn't caught a pass, crazy.I can see why people would say Calvin Johnson, but those people are off. They have listened to the hype and bought into someone that has a cool nickname. Don't get me wrong, he'll be good, could be top 10 but he's not NO. 1.I'd have a tough time ranking 3 and 4 but I'd probably go Brandon Marshall No. 3, D. Jackson No. 4 and Miles Austin No. 5. I would have Jackson NO. 5 and Austin No. 4, even possibly NO. 3 but the addition of Bryant scares me to some degree but we have questions marks in Miami for Marshall and a new QB for Jackson too.I personally like Sydney Rice and Vincent Jackson before I'd select Crabtree or Dez Bryant. Crabtree is to take HUGE steps forward to be considered in the same class as these guys have produced in the NFL as to where Crabtree has shown flashes of brilliance but nothing sustained.

Once you get past the first 2-3 picks there's no such thing as a lock. You mentioned Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, and DeSean Jackson as some of the safer options, but it's not like those guys are mortal locks either. In a five year career, VJax has never finished higher than WR13 in my PPR league. Austin and Rice have exactly one good season each. DeSean Jackson has one good season and one borderline elite season. It's quite possible that none of these four will finish in the top 10 WRs next year. When you take them at their ADP, it's because you believe in their talent and you're making a projection that they're going to be successful. That's pretty much the same thing people are doing with Crabtree and Bryant. The leap is slightly bigger because the latter two are slightly less proven, but the basic idea is the same: pick your horse and bet on him.

 

[doowain]

I think there is a major problem with this thread. It's open to too much interpretation. Are you asking which WR I'd take first if they were all available to me? Or are you asking which WR I'd take at their current value in a startup dynasty draft? Those are two VERY different answers with a lot of factors. Am I drafting to be competitive this year? Am I drafting to build a team that will be (hopefully) unstoppable in 2-3 years without any expectations in year 1?

These are all things you'd have to consider and this poll is just too broad to answer those questions. Really, all this thread is asking is "who do you think is the #1 Dynasty WR?". Those are plenty of those around here.

My answers:

I'd take Calvin if I'm building for the future without expectations for Year 1 and and Andre Johnson if I'm not following that path.

If all of the WRs were available to me, I'd take AJ first. Value-wise I'd go "Other" and take Roddy White.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Voted Fitz...in fact just got turned down in the two leagues where I own AJ after offering him straight up for Fitz.

 

[Malabar]

I think there is a major problem with this thread. It's open to too much interpretation. Are you asking which WR I'd take first if they were all available to me? Or are you asking which WR I'd take at their current value in a startup dynasty draft? Those are two VERY different answers with a lot of factors. Am I drafting to be competitive this year? Am I drafting to build a team that will be (hopefully) unstoppable in 2-3 years without any expectations in year 1?These are all things you'd have to consider and this poll is just too broad to answer those questions. Really, all this thread is asking is "who do you think is the #1 Dynasty WR?". Those are plenty of those around here.My answers:I'd take Calvin if I'm building for the future without expectations for Year 1 and and Andre Johnson if I'm not following that path.If all of the WRs were available to me, I'd take AJ first. Value-wise I'd go "Other" and take Roddy White.

Taking Calvin without expectation for year 1? If Calvin is truly gonna become a super elite WR, I believe this has gotta be the year. 4th year in the NfL, 2nd year QB, addition of Burleson and Scheffler, and a playmaking RB.

 

[doowain]

I think there is a major problem with this thread. It's open to too much interpretation. Are you asking which WR I'd take first if they were all available to me? Or are you asking which WR I'd take at their current value in a startup dynasty draft? Those are two VERY different answers with a lot of factors. Am I drafting to be competitive this year? Am I drafting to build a team that will be (hopefully) unstoppable in 2-3 years without any expectations in year 1?These are all things you'd have to consider and this poll is just too broad to answer those questions. Really, all this thread is asking is "who do you think is the #1 Dynasty WR?". Those are plenty of those around here.My answers:I'd take Calvin if I'm building for the future without expectations for Year 1 and and Andre Johnson if I'm not following that path.If all of the WRs were available to me, I'd take AJ first. Value-wise I'd go "Other" and take Roddy White.

Taking Calvin without expectation for year 1? If Calvin is truly gonna become a super elite WR, I believe this has gotta be the year. 4th year in the NfL, 2nd year QB, addition of Burleson and Scheffler, and a playmaking RB.

I don't think you get what "without expectations for year 1" means.

 

[Malabar]

I think there is a major problem with this thread. It's open to too much interpretation. Are you asking which WR I'd take first if they were all available to me? Or are you asking which WR I'd take at their current value in a startup dynasty draft? Those are two VERY different answers with a lot of factors. Am I drafting to be competitive this year? Am I drafting to build a team that will be (hopefully) unstoppable in 2-3 years without any expectations in year 1?These are all things you'd have to consider and this poll is just too broad to answer those questions. Really, all this thread is asking is "who do you think is the #1 Dynasty WR?". Those are plenty of those around hereMy answers:I'd take Calvin if I'm building for the future without expectations for Year 1 and and Andre Johnson if I'm not following that path.If all of the WRs were available to me, I'd take AJ first. Value-wise I'd go "Other" and take Roddy White.

Taking Calvin without expectation for year 1? If Calvin is truly gonna become a super elite WR, I believe this has gotta be the year. 4th year in the NfL, 2nd year QB, addition of Burleson and Scheffler, and a playmaking RB.

I don't think you get what "without expectations for year 1" means.

Calvin's ADP in redraft is WR2-6. That tells me what guys are expecting out ofCalvin this year. Whether it happens or not is a totally different question. Evryone taking Calvin In redrafts or dynasty is "expecting" great year 4 numbers.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

However, how do people really justify in rating Crabtree over either of these guys? How do you even look someone in the eye with a straight face and say Dez Bryant as the No. 1 dynasty receiver when he hasn't caught a pass, crazy.I can see why people would say Calvin Johnson, but those people are off. They have listened to the hype and bought into someone that has a cool nickname. Don't get me wrong, he'll be good, could be top 10 but he's not NO. 1.I'd have a tough time ranking 3 and 4 but I'd probably go Brandon Marshall No. 3, D. Jackson No. 4 and Miles Austin No. 5. I would have Jackson NO. 5 and Austin No. 4, even possibly NO. 3 but the addition of Bryant scares me to some degree but we have questions marks in Miami for Marshall and a new QB for Jackson too.I personally like Sydney Rice and Vincent Jackson before I'd select Crabtree or Dez Bryant. Crabtree is to take HUGE steps forward to be considered in the same class as these guys have produced in the NFL as to where Crabtree has shown flashes of brilliance but nothing sustained.

Once you get past the first 2-3 picks there's no such thing as a lock. You mentioned Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, and DeSean Jackson as some of the safer options, but it's not like those guys are mortal locks either. In a five year career, VJax has never finished higher than WR13 in my PPR league. Austin and Rice have exactly one good season each. DeSean Jackson has one good season and one borderline elite season. It's quite possible that none of these four will finish in the top 10 WRs next year. When you take them at their ADP, it's because you believe in their talent and you're making a projection that they're going to be successful. That's pretty much the same thing people are doing with Crabtree and Bryant. The leap is slightly bigger because the latter two are slightly less proven, but the basic idea is the same: pick your horse and bet on him.

True and that's why I can't disprove the claims of Crabtree or Bryant as being the No. 1 dynasty WR to draft this year, as I don't have a crystal ball. All I can do is share with the board my experiences in dynasty leagues where owners in general put too much stock in the youth factor when determining draft order. Far too often I've seen and taken advantage of myself start up dynasty leagues where you get guys like Reggie Wayne and Randy Moss, even Lt2 last year for waaaay to cheap for the numbers those guys will still put up over the next couple of seasons. Some of these dynasty leagues don't even last 5 years, I have had more success in dynasty leagues when I go after players I think will do well in the very near future.BTW, of course it's possible that VJackson, Austin, S. Rice and D. Jackson won't be in the top 10 next season, anything is possible but is that the stance you're taking? I can point out reasons why there is a question mark for each one but it does come down to talent and those guys all have it and 2 of those 4 should at least be in the top 8 never mind all 4 missing the top 10.

 

[doowain]

I think there is a major problem with this thread. It's open to too much interpretation. Are you asking which WR I'd take first if they were all available to me? Or are you asking which WR I'd take at their current value in a startup dynasty draft? Those are two VERY different answers with a lot of factors. Am I drafting to be competitive this year? Am I drafting to build a team that will be (hopefully) unstoppable in 2-3 years without any expectations in year 1?These are all things you'd have to consider and this poll is just too broad to answer those questions. Really, all this thread is asking is "who do you think is the #1 Dynasty WR?". Those are plenty of those around hereMy answers:I'd take Calvin if I'm building for the future without expectations for Year 1 and and Andre Johnson if I'm not following that path.If all of the WRs were available to me, I'd take AJ first. Value-wise I'd go "Other" and take Roddy White.

Taking Calvin without expectation for year 1? If Calvin is truly gonna become a super elite WR, I believe this has gotta be the year. 4th year in the NfL, 2nd year QB, addition of Burleson and Scheffler, and a playmaking RB.

I don't think you get what "without expectations for year 1" means.

Calvin's ADP in redraft is WR2-6. That tells me what guys are expecting out ofCalvin this year. Whether it happens or not is a totally different question. Evryone taking Calvin In redrafts or dynasty is "expecting" great year 4 numbers.

I think you are confusing expectations for redraft vs. dynasty in Year 1.

 

[KellysHeroes]

i could make an argument for miles austin

I was reading this thread and was thinking "someone is missing", if Dez is going to be tossed in the Poll might as well mention Austin who torn it apart when he was given a chance. Not sure where Miles is being drafted now, most likely after Calvin and Marshall and before Dez and Crab but not sure why no one else has mentioned him... I rather take Austin over Dez if either one was available with my late 2nd early 3rd turn... but I doubt that Austin will fall that far; if you want Austin you have to pay Marshall / CJ $$.

 

[SSOG]

Once you get past the first 2-3 picks there's no such thing as a lock. You mentioned Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, and DeSean Jackson as some of the safer options, but it's not like those guys are mortal locks either. In a five year career, VJax has never finished higher than WR13 in my PPR league. Austin and Rice have exactly one good season each. DeSean Jackson has one good season and one borderline elite season. It's quite possible that none of these four will finish in the top 10 WRs next year. When you take them at their ADP, it's because you believe in their talent and you're making a projection that they're going to be successful. That's pretty much the same thing people are doing with Crabtree and Bryant. The leap is slightly bigger because the latter two are slightly less proven, but the basic idea is the same: pick your horse and bet on him.

First nine words are all that matters. When we're talking about who you'd take as the #5 dynasty WR off the board, then guys like VJax and Austin and Desean and Sidney and possibly even Crabtree and Dez are all on the table. When you're talking about who you'd take as the #1 dynasty WR, though, then that's just silly. Why take a project when there *ARE* still locks on the table? When choosing between a lock and a project, choose the lock every time. Nobody goes into year 3 thinking "man, I really took too many high-floor players in the first few rounds of my startup dynasty draft". Plenty of people go into year 3 crying into their beers about all the high-ceiling guys they took in the first 3 rounds, though.