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If you were the Chargers coach this sunday (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sinrj
- Start date
FUBAR
Footballguy
Do I have momentum, or have I been getting my butt kicked running the ball lately, but luckily scored the TD?
If we've been having success this quarter, I probably go for the win here.
If we're not running well, I probably go for the tie and hope for the best in OT.
Have I been able to shut down the Patriots this quarter? This half? If New England scored 4 TDs in the first half and have sucked since, I go for the tie and expect to win in OT.
All things being equal, I lean towards going for the win.
If we've been having success this quarter, I probably go for the win here.
If we're not running well, I probably go for the tie and hope for the best in OT.
Have I been able to shut down the Patriots this quarter? This half? If New England scored 4 TDs in the first half and have sucked since, I go for the tie and expect to win in OT.
All things being equal, I lean towards going for the win.
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No option to forfeit?
It depends on how the OL has been playing, but I'd like to think I have a power play that should work here.
It depends on how the OL has been playing, but I'd like to think I have a power play that should work here.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
I would go for 2 as long as there was no time left on the clock. If there was 30 seconds I kick the extra point.One exception might be if I was down 28-0 and have been dominating lately because of an injury to NE (like Brady out) and then I would go into OT
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Sinrj
Footballguy
I would agree with you but the Pats have been so dominant this year, if they win the coin toss your season is likely over.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
If you're at the point that you can tie the game up on the last play (particularly if you've managed to score 28 AND hold them to 28), you've been competitive and stayed in the game. I'd think you'd have to have some confidence that you can continue that for another 10 minutes or so and take your chances in OT rather than what amounts to a one time 50/50 or worse shot.
pats3in4
Footballguy
As much as this would give me a heartattack, I say the Chargers should go for two. They've got the scariest GL back in the game and one of the best LT/LG combos in the league. The Pats will have to sell out to stop what very well could be a dive over the left side with an option for LT2 to break it outside. If that doesn't open up play-action to Gates for the win, nothing will.
Plaid Boxer
Footballguy
You are not guaranteed to even get the ball in OT, don't you have to take the chance?
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
I don't agree with you, coaches would do it. The problem is that tying the score on the last play of the game is very rare. If there are 30 seconds left then it would be dumb to go for 2.Come to think of it, the Bears went for 2 against the Packers a bunch of years ago when they came within 1 with 1 minute left. I don't remember whether they won or not, but I remember thinking how absolutely stupid that was.
hitmenssharpshooters
Footballguy
Allow the kick to be blocked..than in the midst of everything take out Brady's knees on the sideline. 
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Historically, going for two is a 50/50 proposition (at best). If you miss it your season is over.The opening coin flip of OT is also a 50/50 proposition. Even if you don't win the coin flip you can still win the game.
Plaid Boxer
Footballguy
If you make it you are in the Super Bowl.
Is Norv Turner a glass half empty or half full type of guy?I guess I just see it that if you go for it you and you alone control the outcome of the game.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
I will tell you one thing. I would surely have a few plays even one play that I am ready to run and that you have planned and practiced IF the other team shows up in a certian defensive formation you go ahead and do it. if not you take the 5 yard penalty (or call a TO) and kick the extra point
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geoff8695
Footballguy
Remember this is undefeated NE we're facing with a Super Bowl berth at stake. I say, "Go for 2 and don't ever look back."
You really can't ask for much more than this scenario, especially on the road against a 17-0 team. I really don't care how good my defense is playing, just how confident I am in the offense and their ability to convert from the 2 yard line and send us to Arizona in February. The psychological advantage is overwhelmingly in the Chargers favor here, as they control their own destiny while simultaneously denying the Patriots any opportunity to take back the lead. IMO you just can't pass this up, or risk giving NE's offense another chance to beat you. NE's defense may be good but I'ld much rather the game come down to a matchup of my offense vs. the Patriot's defense, rather than the other way around. Brady is too 'clutch' and this '07-'08 NE offense is too dangerous to give them any hope of getting the ball back and beating us with a final game winning drive.
Perhaps best of all, I would be elated to have an opportunity to dictate to Bellicheck and the Patriots that WE control the outcome of this game on it's final play. Now it's up to them to come and stop us.
You really can't ask for much more than this scenario, especially on the road against a 17-0 team. I really don't care how good my defense is playing, just how confident I am in the offense and their ability to convert from the 2 yard line and send us to Arizona in February. The psychological advantage is overwhelmingly in the Chargers favor here, as they control their own destiny while simultaneously denying the Patriots any opportunity to take back the lead. IMO you just can't pass this up, or risk giving NE's offense another chance to beat you. NE's defense may be good but I'ld much rather the game come down to a matchup of my offense vs. the Patriot's defense, rather than the other way around. Brady is too 'clutch' and this '07-'08 NE offense is too dangerous to give them any hope of getting the ball back and beating us with a final game winning drive.
Perhaps best of all, I would be elated to have an opportunity to dictate to Bellicheck and the Patriots that WE control the outcome of this game on it's final play. Now it's up to them to come and stop us.
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Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
I think it depends. Did you fluke your way into your points, or were you pushing around the DL the whole game? Was your defense playing well (maybe the Patrots had to score defensive or ST touchdowns)?
I think going for two does look desperate, like "I can't believe we're here. We better just try and win it because we're not good enough to compete with these guys." Everyone is assuming that's the case but the game might be different.
Nothing wrong with going for two, but it would be an easier decision if you had LT playing well and Gates able to be in the play. Then you'd have LT, Gates and Vincent Jackson in a fade route as options. I still think you put the ball in LTs hands, but it depends on how he's doing.
I think going for two does look desperate, like "I can't believe we're here. We better just try and win it because we're not good enough to compete with these guys." Everyone is assuming that's the case but the game might be different.
Nothing wrong with going for two, but it would be an easier decision if you had LT playing well and Gates able to be in the play. Then you'd have LT, Gates and Vincent Jackson in a fade route as options. I still think you put the ball in LTs hands, but it depends on how he's doing.
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Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
This is a bit different, but I believe the Jacksonville Jaguars did that in their first game ever-- Just to kind of set the tone for the franchise, I guess.Gr00vus said:
Pat Patriot
Footballguy
I believe Gruden did it a couple of years ago in the playoffs with TB against Washington with maybe a minute left. TB I believe did not get the 2 but got the ball back and had a chance to win.Liquid Tension said:
Knight who says Ni
Footballguy
Gr00vus said:
I agree with this reasoningNi
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
This brings another point to light. If you have all 3 TO's left (which would be doubtful) you could go for 2 and then try to stop them if you didn't succeed. however, the part that I don't like is that if you did succeed you are allowing the other team to go down and kick a FG with 4 downs to work with. That is not hard to do getting an extra 33% of downs to play with.I still think going back to the original question...I would try and take NE down the way Geof said
Mungo Burrows
Footballguy
[Devil's Advocate]On the 2 point conversion it's a 50/50 chance, if you hit you are guaranteed to winIn OT, it's a 50/50 chance to win the coin toss, and even if you win the coinflip you can still lose the game[/Devil's Advocate]It still comes down to how confident you are in your team's ability to slog out another defensive stand or offensive drive. If you honestly think you're playing better (i.e., brady is getting pummelled, LT is running like crazy) you go to OT. If not you take your chance right there. And especially if your kicker is shaky you go for 2. Not because he might miss the PAT (although that's a possibility), but because if you go to OT, chances are you'll need him to hit a ~40 yarder to win unless your offense is pummelling the opposition or hitting numerous big plays.Gr00vus said:I agree with this reasoningNi
Pictus Cat
Footballguy
Depends on how that game is flowing.
Go for it if,
You're winning in the trenches
You've been unstoppable all day with an appropriate matchup (Left corner, over left guard...)
Your defense makes you shudder
You have a play you want to bank it all on
Kick if,
You're defense has been shutdown and ball-hawking
You're losing in the trenches
You don't have a play you a sure about
If I had to guess right now, I would go with kick.
Go for it if,
You're winning in the trenches
You've been unstoppable all day with an appropriate matchup (Left corner, over left guard...)
Your defense makes you shudder
You have a play you want to bank it all on
Kick if,
You're defense has been shutdown and ball-hawking
You're losing in the trenches
You don't have a play you a sure about
If I had to guess right now, I would go with kick.
Maroney=Speed
Footballguy
How are the teams injury wise at that point in the game?How did they get there? Was SD down 28-0?Not sure what Norv would do.We do know what Gruden would do, go for it.We do know what Billick would do, kick it. But everything being equal, IF SD has a play that they feel can work from the 2 yard line.Than of course go for the 2 pointer.Sinrj said:
But even if you win the coin flip, you can still lose the game.If you wanted to do it mathematically, say: You have a 50% chance of converting the 2 pt conversion. If your given probability of a) winning the game given that you win the coin toss, plus b) winning the game given you lost the coin toss is greater than or equal to 1, then you should kick the XP. If it's less you should go for two. So if You think you have a 75% chance of scoring given you won the coin toss you would need to have a 25% chance or better of winning the game given you lost the coin toss.So .75 * .5 + .25 *.5 = .5, a 50% chance of winning the game which equals your chance of getting the 2pt conversion.If you only think think you have a 43% chance of converting on the 2 pt conversion, you would need a combined percentage of 86% or better.Gr00vus said:
Tau837
Footballguy
I agree with this.
Maroney=Speed
Footballguy
2005, week 10.Bucs score late on 2-point conversion, stun Redskins.Final score TB-36 Wash.-35.They scored a TD with 1:05 left. kicked the extra point, BUT Wash. was offside so they went for 2 at the 1. 2nd and 10 at WAS 30 (1:05) C.Simms pass to E.Shepherd for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 35 36 (Kick formation) PENALTY on WAS, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs. (Kick formation) M.Bryant extra point is Blocked (W.Harris), Center-D.Moore, Holder-J.Bidwell. PENALTY on WAS, Defensive Offside, 1 yard, enforced at WAS 2 - No Play. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Alstott rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. 35 36 Interesting.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
The Chargers skill players will not outplay the Patriots skill players so they will have to do what they did vs. Indy, and win the defensive and offensive line battle.
The Chargers lines outplayed Indy's which is why they won the game. They will have to do the same here.
The Chargers lines outplayed Indy's which is why they won the game. They will have to do the same here.
mcjc4
Footballguy
I would place the odds at about 1 in 4 you make the 2 point conversion. Coin flip is 50/50. I'll take 50% over 25% everyday.
Maroney=Speed
Footballguy
You forgot in the cold, and your a warm weather team. With Volek at QB and Turner at RB.
Maroney=Speed
Footballguy
Let me guess except on Sundays.I would place the odds at about 1 in 4 you make the 2 point conversion. Coin flip is 50/50. I'll take 50% over 25% everyday.
SuperJohn96
RPS World Champion
Even with Tomlinson, I still go for the XP...
browntown
Footballguy
On offense they'll need to try controlling the clock, and limit turnovers by running a boatload. LT and Turner should see 35 carries between them at a minimum. Even if they get down early. The Patriots biggest weakness is an unathletic LB crew. If they can spread out and use the whole field on passing downs, it's going to limit their impact on the game. Assuming the Patriots stack the box to limit the running game, they should use play action to find VJax or Chambers in single coverage down the field. They'll need to take at least a few big shots down field.
On defense they'll need to double Moss, and send a lot of pressure at Brady in various schemes. Tackling will be key as Welker and Faulk always seem to break various tackles, often times where they would have been held short of 1st downs. Coverage should be aggressive, hoping to make at least one big play in the secondary. Stopping the Pats on their own is going to be a near impossible task, so they'll need to force at least a few turnovers.
Specials should be going after a Hobbs fumble. He's a lot more likely to put it on the ground than Welker is. Sproles should be willing to sacrafice yardage to look for a big play.
All that said, "staying around" until late in the game shouldn't really be the goal. The teams that have done well agianst them this year did it with an aggressive defense, and a ball control offense, with some big plays mixed in with the return game. If the Chargers are going to win, they'll have to be aggressive all over the field. Try bringing it to the Pats, instead of just hoping to keep it close.
On defense they'll need to double Moss, and send a lot of pressure at Brady in various schemes. Tackling will be key as Welker and Faulk always seem to break various tackles, often times where they would have been held short of 1st downs. Coverage should be aggressive, hoping to make at least one big play in the secondary. Stopping the Pats on their own is going to be a near impossible task, so they'll need to force at least a few turnovers.
Specials should be going after a Hobbs fumble. He's a lot more likely to put it on the ground than Welker is. Sproles should be willing to sacrafice yardage to look for a big play.
All that said, "staying around" until late in the game shouldn't really be the goal. The teams that have done well agianst them this year did it with an aggressive defense, and a ball control offense, with some big plays mixed in with the return game. If the Chargers are going to win, they'll have to be aggressive all over the field. Try bringing it to the Pats, instead of just hoping to keep it close.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
This is the correct response.John Madden was SHOCKED when New England drove the field and scored a field goal to complete The Silence Of The Rams.Belichick knew his team didn't have a prayer in overtime.If San Diego did this to beat New England, he would smile.And that my friends is the legacy of the greatest football coach of all time.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Technically yes, but practically no if you don't like your chances in OT.Probability wise, you kick the extra point.Cajones wise, you go for two.
You have a 50 percent chance to get the ball in OT. You have less than a 50 percent chance to score going for two.
But getting the ball in OT first doesn't necessarily translate into winning (neither does not getting the ball first translate into losing). I think that's why a lot of previous posters are saying it depends on what occured to date in the game. If they feel like they have a better chance in OT (either winning the coin toss and scoring, or losing the coin toss, stopping NE then scoring) then you kick the XP. If you don't like your chances in OT (despite the outcome of the coin toss, as in your offense has been struggling and/or your defense is struggling) then you go for two.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
I'd like to add that the "successful" conversion was VERY questionable. I mean, could really have gone either way and it was just one-yard out.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
I think that's why Boise State went for two a year ago. I don't think they liked their OT chances because it took some creative plays just to score. They went for it and made it. I think they would have lost in OT.SeniorVBDStudent said:
the moops
Footballguy
That makes no sense.
