Inside The Texans War Room (1 Viewer)

[MLBrandow]

The Best Column About The Houston Texans War Room In The History Of The World, Ever.

February 13, 2006 12:31a.m. EST

M.L. Brandow, Freelance Columnist

First, before I go into having to openly defend myself against Ferguson being drafted No.1 overall, there needs to be some clearing up of facts. It seems there is a lot of misinformation going around and unfounded speculation about what's going on inside the Houston Texans War Room for the upcoming draft in April. While none of us can know exactly what they will do come draft day, hopefully a look into some numbers should help make for some more educated guesses and better lines of logic.

So, let's have a look at the key players and the root of all evil, wom--err... money. The Salary Cap Demon.

Hi, I'm Domanick Davis, And You Can't Find A Single Fantasy Football Player That Likes Me:

In 2005 Davis signed a $21.1 million contract extension in the final year of his rookie contract. Davis received a $5 million signing bonus and the same $380,000 base salary — the minimum for a third-year player — he was scheduled to make in his original contract. Davis will be paid a $1.2 million option bonus in March. He'll also receive an $800,000 roster bonus next year.

Here are the exact cap numbers for his contract per year:

2005 380000.00 (+$5M SB)

2006 1700000.00 (+$1.2M OB)

2007 3340000.00 ($800k RB)

2008 4180000.00

2009 4550000.00

Hi, I'm Not Joey Harrington, I'm David Carr:

David Carr's contract would have expired and sent him to unrestricted free agency in March had the Texans not picked up his $8M option bonus. Carr’s extension calls for base salaries of $5.25 million this year, $5.5 million in 2007 and $6 million in 2008. As the top pick in the 2002 draft, Carr already has made $22 million over his first four years, not counting incentive bonuses. Barring a career-ending injury and a restructuring for salary-cap purposes, Carr will earn $46.75 million over the first seven years of his career.

Here are the exact cap numbers for his contract per year:

2006 5250000.00 (+$8M OB)

2007 5500000.00

2008 6000000.00

Hi, I'm Texans GM Charley Casserly, and I Approved This Message:

Because option bonuses are prorated, Carr's extension effectively has just cost them $9M against this year's cap ($5.25M base salary, $3.75M prorated option bonus). The Texans, then, are now sitting a number hovering around $87M, or between $5-9M under the 2006 salary cap (the cap is still unknown, but estimated to be between $92-96M).

The No.1 overall pick will command at minimum a six year, $45M deal. And if the past two years are any indication, the top pick should receive somewhere in the neighborhood of a $20M signing bonus. So, at a minimum, this top pick will run about $10M against the cap.

Come On Now, Reggie Can't Do Everythang:

Obviously, the selection of Reggie Bush means the end of Domanick Davis in Houston. But, what many people fail to realize is that just because Bush is drafted doesn't mean that Davis has to be removed from the team. Davis' contract is conveniently set up so that if the Texans were to draft Bush, they could keep Davis until after the 2006 season, then trade/release him.

Trading/releasing Davis before March 1st would accelerate the remaining $4M of the $5M signing bonus he signed in 2005 and generate a net cap hit of $2.3M. And trading/releasing Davis after March 1st would incorporate the $1.2M option bonus and increase that cap hit to $3.5M. So if this were to happen for a team with limited funds and so many questions, there would have to be a damn good offer to warrant paying off their backup plan, especially without the money to solve their offensive line problems beyond some patchwork and improved schemes.

However, if the Texans opt to keep Davis around this season and trade/release him in 2007, they would save $1.14M. Therefore, if the Texans opt to draft Reggie Bush, we're going to see a two-headed RB monster in Houston in 2006.

I'm Matt Leinart, And There's Not A Chance In Hell I'm Going To The Texans, So I'm Going To Be Grouped With Vince Young. Did You Know He's From Texas? That's Where Houston is, It's In Texas:

Naturally, a Quarterback pick signifies the end of David Carr in Houston. Before the Texans picked up Carr's option bonus, he'd be an unrestricted free agent in March, thus paving the way for a new QB. But now that they have, we're in a whole different ballpark. Trading/releasing Carr before June 1st (e.g. a draft day trade) would charge the Texans a whopping $13.25M. So we can rule out that possibility.

Trading/releasing Carr after June 1st would still charge the Texans $2.67M against this year's cap from his option bonus, and then create $10.58M in dead money next year. This also seems very unlikely.

Trading/releasing Car in 2007, however, would save the Texans $167k. So, if the Texans opted to draft a QB with the top overall pick, Carr won't be traded until next year. To put that in perspective, consider that David Carr, if he puts up similar numbers next year, is at least a nonhorrible QB. Whether you think that he is capable of going to nine Pro Bowls or that he's a bum just like Joey Harrington, the Texans decision to pick up his $8M option bonus doesn't mean they won't draft a Quarterback, just that David Carr will play for the Texans for at least one more year.

Hi, I'm D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and I'm Going To Eat Seth Wand And Scare Chester Pitts To Right Guard:

Sadly, this would mean the end of the Seth Wand/Chester Pitts reign at Left Tackle (or Left Revolving Door, as I like to call it). For what it's worth, Pitts was initially supposed to be the starting Left Guard this season, where he's played every snap (between LG and RG) since his rookie year in 2002. If, for some reason, Mike Shanahan feels the need to use another 3rd round pick on a guy who won't make it through the preseason, he can tender the $380,000 qualifying offer on Wand's RFA contract.

If you remember last year, the Texans were prepared to give up at least a first round pick for Rams LT Orlando Pace, but he ended up re-signing with St. Louis for a 7year/$52M deal, so you know that it was known coming into this season that Left Tackle was a big problem, and that the Texans had tried (and failed) to solve it. There are no real drawbacks here from a salary cap standpoint.

"With The First Pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, acquired from the Houston Texans....."

For the sake of captology, the only sense this makes is to lower the cap number for the player they are targeting, but if you look back only two years, you might see a problem. For starters, let's say that the Texans worked out a deal with New Orleans to swap picks for the sole reason of lowering the cap number of D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who they want more. For the sake of trade, we'll just say that the Texans, in their infinite kindness, have volunteered to swap picks for free so the Saints could draft Leinart or Young (preferably the QB that the Titans wanted), so there would be no additional cap rammifications.

Now, as for the salary, rookie contracts in the first round are usually dictated by the histories of players before them, and so a good agent tries to get at least that amount for their client from the year before. The last time a Left Tackle was drafted No.2 overall was Robert Gallery just two years ago. His rookie contract was a whopping seven year, $60M. And Ferguson is almost a consensus from draft scouts as a better LT prospect than Gallery.

Let's say they pull off the Giants/Rivers trade from that same year (No.1 to No.4). Well, in that trade, San Diego received also received the Giants' 2005 first round pick, which invariably costs money. If the Jets traded their first round pick to trade up, the Texans would still have to pay that money eventually, and they are in no shape cap-wise to sign two first-round draft choices next year (unlike San Diego who had $25M in cap room).

So, regardless of whether the Texans take Ferguson with the top pick or trade down a few spots, they won't really be saving any money, and stand a good chance of being in worse cap shape as a result.

Okay, Genius, What's Going To Happen?

Well, in my mocks, D'Brickashaw Ferguson goes No.1 overall to the Houston Texans. For aforementioned reasons, a trade down with Ferguson still going to the Texans is very unlikely. From Day one, since the Texans drafted Tony Boselli with their first pick in the expansion draft, it's apparent that this front office realizes you need a left tackle to win in this game, no matter what level of talent you have in the backfield. Perhaps if Boselli had actually played a down of football in a Texans uniform, we might not even be having this discussion.

I can guarantee you that Matt Leinart and Vince Young aren't going to the Texans. Every NFL Scout agrees that David Carr still has all the tools to succeed on an NFL level, and simply needs a line that can block for him, and weapons that can stay healthy. And while drafting Vince Young would raise a big cheer in the Houston area on draft day, those same scouts all agree that Vince Young won't be any good as a rookie, and is maybe two seasons away from being an NFL Quarterback. That means this team, if they draft Young, would be maintaining the status quo from last year (minus the coaching changes).

We've seen that a healthy Texans team can win 7 games, and an injury-depleted team can win at least a couple. Either way, it's still a sub-.500 team, and Texans fans will be even more engered if Young sits on the bench for two years. The team could draft Matt Leinart, who grades out as a better prospect than Carr did, but then you have to ask yourself, is mortgaging one No.1 overall pick for another one really a good idea?

As for the Reggie Bush Mania, all I can say is look what the Broncos have done under Kubiak as Offensive Coordinator since 1995. Even Olandis Gary had a 1,000 yard season. They can stick anyone in there and have a great rushing attack. As for the offensive line, one thing you'll notice is this: every member of that line (Matt Lepsis, Ben Hamilton, Tom Nalen, Cooper Carlisle, George Foster) has played every down in the NFL as a Bronco. They don't trade for linemen or sign them through free agency, they draft and groom them. That's because they need those system blockers that can excel in the zone-blocking scheme that Denver runs in order to get those Running Backs those 1,000 yard seasons. Drafting a stud back would contradict the ideals of the offense, because there isn't a line in place to make this system work.

At that, when Kubiak gets his way with the front office, they'll be investing a couple early picks in this year's draft on the offensive line. Even if you're one to believe Kubiak has absolutely no say in anything, the Texans' short history clearly indicates (to me, at least), that they will be taking Ferguson with the first pick in the draft. Left Tackle has been a priority and they have tried several times to solidify the position.

In 2002 with Boselli expected to anchor the offensive line, the Texans understandably ignored the Tackle position altogether. In 2003, after Boselli had missed the entire season, and amidst speculation was heavy that he may not be able to make a comeback (as was the case later that year in July when he retired), the Texans spent a 3rd rounder on a potential replacement in Seth Wand. After seeing some flashes of promise in Wand late in the season in a few starts, the Texans decided Left Tackle wouldn't be a problem position for them, and ignored it in the 2004 draft. Heading into the 2005 draft, the Texans realized that Wand may not be the answer, and aggressively pursued Orlando Pace. They were willing then to give up a first round pick for him, but decided two first rounders was simply too high to upgrade the position.

This year, there are no franchise Left Tackles in free agency, and there is only one option for the Texans if they want to solve Left Tackle once and for all: draft D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the first overall pick.

 

[coolnerd]

It can't be the best column every written about the Texans warroom when you have a basic fact like Chester pitts starting at RG (never) wrong. In another thread, I believe you mention that you have not regualrly watched the Texans.

Cute, but really there is not a need for another Texans and the number 1 pick thread.

 

[TurfPro]

Pretty well thought out article, in spite of the obviously tongue-in-cheek title.

 

[MLBrandow]

It can't be the best column every written about the Texans warroom when you have a basic fact like Chester pitts starting at RG (never) wrong. In another thread, I believe you mention that you have not regualrly watched the Texans.

Cute, but really there is not a need for another Texans and the number 1 pick thread.

You win, this entire article is 100% made up and has nothing to do with anything!

 

[Donnybrook]

I actually love the article because at least it shows the way team owners hands are tied by the cap. I hate it when people over-simply things and say “the Texans should trade this player or that player and get more picks”. Like it was that easy.

 

[Bri]

I actually love the article because at least it shows the way team owners hands are tied by the cap. I hate it when people over-simply things and say “the Texans should trade this player or that player and get more picks”. Like it was that easy.

Texans should trade any player another team wants for 2 Ts, 2 Gs, and a C. If they lose Andre, Carr, and Davis well then so be it. What will happen instead is they'll draft a T in the 5th round and wonder what's wrong.

 

[Smeagol]

"The Brick" is a good prospect. Not a great one. I wouldn't be surprised if another LT goes in front of him once the combines roll around.

 

[coolnerd]

It can't be the best column every written about the Texans warroom when you have a basic fact like Chester pitts starting at RG (never) wrong. In another thread, I believe you mention that you have not regualrly watched the Texans.

Cute, but really there is not a need for another Texans and the number 1 pick thread.

You win, this entire article is 100% made up and has nothing to do with anything!

What kinda "warroom" is this when I can't pick a

 

[Bevo]

I would say that the idea that the Texans can't trade down for an additional #1 next year because they can't afford to draft 2 #1s next year for cap reasons is flawed. They get the additional #1 for next year, then pick the best #1 to draft with next year and trade the other one (probably for additional picks, but maybe for a player). This is certainly doable under the cap which will expand again next year and a couple of #2s or a #2 and a couple of #3s should come in cheaper than the additional #1, especially if it is a high #1.

 

[psychobillies]

For the sake of captology, the only sense this makes is to lower the cap number for the player they are targeting, but if you look back only two years, you might see a problem. For starters, let's say that the Texans worked out a deal with New Orleans to swap picks for the sole reason of lowering the cap number of D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who they want more. For the sake of trade, we'll just say that the Texans, in their infinite kindness, have volunteered to swap picks for free so the Saints could draft Leinart or Young (preferably the QB that the Titans wanted), so there would be no additional cap rammifications.

Good article, but I don't think the Saints would swap picks even w/o compensation. They don't want to take the cap hit any more than Houston does. I know that another team could try to jump them and grab Leinart, but if that were the case I think they would just take Young at the discounted price.

 

[beto]

"The Brick" is a good prospect. Not a great one. I wouldn't be surprised if another LT goes in front of him once the combines roll around.

From everything I have seen Ferguson is a great prospect. I will be stunned if another LT goes in front of him at any point in the draft process.I believe the Texans can take Reggie Bush and still get a top-notch OT prospect at the top of the 2nd Round.

 

[5Rings]

MLBrandow--question on Dom Davis.

We all know that Houston should take an OT, however they need to do it. Lets say they do take Bush and keep him.

Do you think Davis could become a Travis Henry, where he would lose his job/carries and thus have little leverage on the open market next year where he would not be able to find a starting gig?

 

[Flea Flicker]

Trading/releasing Carr before June 1st (e.g. a draft day trade) would charge the Texans a whopping $13.25M.

How? Are you incorrectly including Carr's 2006 salary in this cap hit estimation?

Trading/releasing Carr after June 1st would still charge the Texans $2.67M against this year's cap from his option bonus, and then create $10.58M in dead money next year.

This June 1st rule changes if there is not a new CBA in place.

If, for some reason, Mike Shanahan feels the need to use another 3rd round pick on a guy who won't make it through the preseason,

Since when is Mike Shanahan drafting for the Texans?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

"The Brick" is a good prospect. Not a great one. I wouldn't be surprised if another LT goes in front of him once the combines roll around.

From everything I have seen Ferguson is a great prospect. I will be stunned if another LT goes in front of him at any point in the draft process.I believe the Texans can take Reggie Bush and still get a top-notch OT prospect at the top of the 2nd Round.

That's why this won't happen. The Senior Bowl showed that there are decent number of OT prospects whom are around the same grade this year. The Texans can get one at the top of rd 2 unless they have fallen in love with Brick.

 

[Chitown Mole]

It can't be the best column every written about the Texans warroom when you have a basic fact like Chester pitts starting at RG (never) wrong. In another thread, I believe you mention that you have not regualrly watched the Texans.

Cute, but really there is not a need for another Texans and the number 1 pick thread.

I read some of this stuff on the Texans and would find some of it amusing if it wasn't so awful.

 

[MLBrandow]

MLBrandow--question on Dom Davis.

We all know that Houston should take an OT, however they need to do it.  Lets say they do take Bush and keep him.

Do you think Davis could become a Travis Henry, where he would lose his job/carries and thus have little leverage on the open market next year where he would not be able to find a starting gig?

Davis would be able to find a starting job. You have to take into account that the reason most everyone hates him stems from a fantasy football standpoint. The Texans think he's great. He puts up great numbers, he just misses games because his line allows for so many big and unnecessary hits to be made on him.He would have very little leverage on the open market though, because of his cap number. He'd be kind of the situatoin TO is (minus the off-field issues), cap-wise... where he's got a contract that teams might accept and would be willing to trade for, but there's little reason to because if they wait it out, the Texans would end up releasing him.

So the only trade value he has is a team that wants the rights to the player over another potential team.

The problem I see is potentially the one the Bills were in (since you brought that one up to begin with). The Bills also had a huge problem at Left Tackle, but they took McGahee in the first round.

I don't know if anyone noticed, but Henry's stats were better across the board, minus fumbles, which as Tiki Barber has shown, can be corrected with a little coaching: more TDs, higher YPC, more yards, etc. He was a bettter running back.

However, the Bills opted to neglect the LT and take the BPA (McGahee, arguably No.2 overall until the knee injury), and look where they are now. They got a 3rd round pick for Henry, a running back who looked better on paper but was unproven, and still have a gaping hole at LT and a losing record.

Now, fast forward to 2006, the Texans have a shot at taking the best back in the draft, at the cost of ignoring their biggest need. They'd be upgrading on paper, but mortgaging a proven back in Davis.

I don't think anyone here will dispute any of the following statement: Reggie Bush is capable of breaking 2000 yards from scrimmage.

Well, that's what Davis was already doing (if you average out the games he missed with his average production). I'm sure amidst all of the Texans internal discussions, someone will bring this up, if it hasn't been already. And it certainly raises an eyebrow.

The age-old cliche of "those who are ignorant of history are doomed to repeat it" couldn't be more evidenced here. If the Texans take Bush, they won't be any better. Shoot, you can make a very valid argument that the Bills are worse off with McGahee than with Henry, but there are also other factors that distract from the point here.

It just seems silly to not take Ferguson, although as you can clearly see in the numbers, it would only really be stupid to take a QB. As far as cap numbers go, they are already set up to deal with Davis if they take Bush.

 

[Gopher State]

Here's how it shakes out:

Texans trade D. Davis to MN for WR Troy W.(This is a hot topic/rummor in Mn, more so then Pepper going anywhere, or the Vikes signing Shawn Alexander)

The Texans draft Bush, and live happly ever after

 

[Texasmouth]

Here's how it shakes out:

Texans trade D. Davis to MN for WR Troy W.(This is a hot topic/rummor in Mn, more so then Pepper going anywhere, or the Vikes signing Shawn Alexander)

The Texans draft Bush, and live happly ever after

Until Bush gets hurt and everyone realizes that he isnt an every down back..

 

[MLBrandow]

Here's how it shakes out:

Texans trade D. Davis to MN for WR Troy W.(This is a hot topic/rummor in Mn, more so then Pepper going anywhere, or the Vikes signing Shawn Alexander)

The Texans draft Bush, and live happly ever after

the Texans would have to take a LT in the 2nd round to make me happy.I haven't looked up the exact numbers, but I'd bet they can afford this if they get rid of a certain couple underperforming and overpaid members of their secondary.

The problem is that it would be a big cap hit for the Vikings, so they would have to want to absorb that hit; and otherwise it's a great deal for the Texans because they get the receiver they wanted from last year without paying any signing bonus.

 

[Marvelous]

The article has a major flaw on the limitations of the salary cap. Some of the poor assumptions:1.

The Texans, then, are now sitting a number hovering around $87M, or between $5-9M under the 2006 salary cap (the cap is still unknown, but estimated to be between $92-96M).

This assumes the Texans want to keep ALL of they players they currently have under contract. Last time I checked, the Texans had 2 wins and were the worst team in the NFL. They have a new HC. This is a classic situation where they will turn over a lot of their roster. If they cut/trade many of the under acheiving players, they will probably have a lot more salary cap space. 2.

If the Jets traded their first round pick to trade up, the Texans would still have to pay that money eventually, and they are in no shape cap-wise to sign two first-round draft choices next year (unlike San Diego who had $25M in cap room).

The author never even stated what the salary cap situation will be in 2007. He is assuming that because the Texan only have $5-9 M in cap space in 2006, they must have little in 2007.3. As another poster pointed out, the article assumes the cba is extended with similar provisions as the current agreement. If it is not extened, 2007 is an uncapped year. I personally believe (not that it means much) that the cba will be extended and the salary cap will increase significantly. Some unshared revenues will go into the pot. I don't really care if the owners agree to share them or not.

 

[ratbast]

Who would you rather invest your $ on? A blue-chip RB that might be a little small or a top-notch LT that can anchor your line for a long time?

Take a look at whats out there for LeftTs and RBs.

This is a no-brainer, except when considering ticket sales "now".

 

[Marvelous]

My personal opinion on the Texans:

1. They are a bad football team, although not as bas as 2-14 would indicate. They solution is to get good players. After that, it all comes down to player evaluation. If they think Bush is a great player and worth the $, they should draft him regardless of who is on their roster. If they think Leinert or Young will be a great player, they should draft him, unless they think Carr will be a great player. Otherwise, they should trade down.

2. Although Kubiak is coming with a clean slate, Denver never drafted linemen high and never drafted rbs high. My understanding is that the Denver zone blocking scheme does not require offensive linemen drafted high. If Kubiak follows this model and he is content on sticking with Carr long term, he should trade down, way down if possible, and stock pile draft picks. He can then find all the zone blocking OL he needs later in the draft. Of course, Casserly is still there, so Kubiak may not be able to do this even if he wanted to.

 

[MLBrandow]

The article has a major flaw on the limitations of the salary cap. Some of the poor assumptions:

1.

The Texans, then, are now sitting a number hovering around $87M, or between $5-9M under the 2006 salary cap (the cap is still unknown, but estimated to be between $92-96M).

This assumes the Texans want to keep ALL of they players they currently have under contract. Last time I checked, the Texans had 2 wins and were the worst team in the NFL. They have a new HC. This is a classic situation where they will turn over a lot of their roster. If they cut/trade many of the under acheiving players, they will probably have a lot more salary cap space. 2.

If the Jets traded their first round pick to trade up, the Texans would still have to pay that money eventually, and they are in no shape cap-wise to sign two first-round draft choices next year (unlike San Diego who had $25M in cap room).

The author never even stated what the salary cap situation will be in 2007. He is assuming that because the Texan only have $5-9 M in cap space in 2006, they must have little in 2007.3. As another poster pointed out, the article assumes the cba is extended with similar provisions as the current agreement. If it is not extened, 2007 is an uncapped year. I personally believe (not that it means much) that the cba will be extended and the salary cap will increase significantly. Some unshared revenues will go into the pot. I don't really care if the owners agree to share them or not.

The reason the uncapped year problem isn't mentioned is because if it goes to that, this entire article is a moot point and football won't be any fun because the Redskins and Raiders will buy up every good player.

 

[Donnybrook]

Just for a reference here is the Texans 2006 Unofficial Salary Cap Info

 

[bts4bkfst]

"The Brick" is a good prospect. Not a great one. I wouldn't be surprised if another LT goes in front of him once the combines roll around.

NO WAY THAT HAPPENS! He's BY FAR the best prospect at that position and a sure fire top 5 choice. He dominated in the Senior Bowl and that has much more weight than the combine.

 

[Texasmouth]

The article has a major flaw on the limitations of the salary cap.  Some of the poor assumptions:

1.

The Texans, then, are now sitting a number hovering around $87M, or between $5-9M under the 2006 salary cap (the cap is still unknown, but estimated to be between $92-96M).

This assumes the Texans want to keep ALL of they players they currently have under contract. Last time I checked, the Texans had 2 wins and were the worst team in the NFL. They have a new HC. This is a classic situation where they will turn over a lot of their roster. If they cut/trade many of the under acheiving players, they will probably have a lot more salary cap space. 2.

If the Jets traded their first round pick to trade up, the Texans would still have to pay that money eventually, and they are in no shape cap-wise to sign two first-round draft choices next year (unlike San Diego who had $25M in cap room).

The author never even stated what the salary cap situation will be in 2007. He is assuming that because the Texan only have $5-9 M in cap space in 2006, they must have little in 2007.3. As another poster pointed out, the article assumes the cba is extended with similar provisions as the current agreement. If it is not extened, 2007 is an uncapped year. I personally believe (not that it means much) that the cba will be extended and the salary cap will increase significantly. Some unshared revenues will go into the pot. I don't really care if the owners agree to share them or not.

The reason the uncapped year problem isn't mentioned is because if it goes to that, this entire article is a moot point and football won't be any fun because the Redskins and Raiders will buy up every good player.

Don't forget about Uncle Jerry and the Cowboys......

 

[Texasmouth]

The Brick" is a good prospect. Not a great one. I wouldn't be surprised if another LT goes in front of him once the combines roll around.

Quite possibly one of the worst posts I have ever seen.

 

[beto]

The Brick" is a good prospect. Not a great one. I wouldn't be surprised if another LT goes in front of him once the combines roll around.

Quite possibly one of the worst posts I have ever seen.

I wouldn't go that far. Nothing wrong with questioning conventional draft wisdom. Although Ferguson had a great Senior Bowl, it did expose a flaw in his game: that he's vulnerable to the inside rush. The question is where does D'Brick rank with recent highly selected tackles.

Robert Gallery #2 overall

Jordan Gross #8 overall

Mike Williams #4

Bryant McKinnie #7

Levi Jones #10

Leonard Davis #2

Chris Samuels #3

Kyle Turley #7

Orlando Pace #1

Walter Jones #8

John Ogden #4

Willie Anderson #10

Tony Boselli #2

 

[joffer]

The Best Column About The Houston Texans War Room In The History Of The World, Ever.

February 13, 2006 12:31a.m. EST

M.L. Brandow, Freelance Columnist

First, before I go into having to openly defend myself against Ferguson being drafted No.1 overall, there needs to be some clearing up of facts. It seems there is a lot of misinformation going around and unfounded speculation about what's going on inside the Houston Texans War Room for the upcoming draft in April. While none of us can know exactly what they will do come draft day, hopefully a look into some numbers should help make for some more educated guesses and better lines of logic.

So, let's have a look at the key players and the root of all evil, wom--err... money. The Salary Cap Demon.

Hi, I'm Domanick Davis, And You Can't Find A Single Fantasy Football Player That Likes Me:

I hope it gets better

 

[caul]

As stated above, their are some real good OL prospects in the draft, the senior bowl definately showed that. However I see alot of everyone talking about them like they will be still be around in the 2nd and 3rd rounds like people were projecting them before the senior bowl. A couple nice workouts and your looking at a run on lineman in the first round. People just assume somone like Jean Giles is going to be around at 2.1, but I would be very suprised.

If im the texans, I trade with the jets to the 4th spot, the jets can take bush, and we take d`brick. Get some extra picks in the process, and I dont care what anyone says, Dbrick at 1.4 will cost less then Dbrick at 1.1

 

[MLBrandow]

Someone brought up somewhere in this thread or another about the Troy Williamson for Domanick Davis rumor....

I was trying to find out the cap rammifications for the Vikings, but Williamson's contract is very tricky.

See, he only received $1.87M signing bonus, but is due a $9.26M guaranteed option bonus on March 1st, and then another $1.35M Bonus on March 1st, 2007.

Now, the last two years of his contract are voidable.

2005 230000.00

2006 310000.00

2007 385000.00

2008 910000.00

2009 1435000.00

2010 1885000.00*

2011 1885000.00*

7.04M combined base salary for 7 year contract (really a 5 year contract for 3.27M base salary).

1.87M roster signing bonus in 2005.

9.26M guaranteed option bonus in March 2006 (voids 7th year).

1.35M guaranteed option bonus in March 2006 (voids 6th year).

Another source says the contract is supposed to be a 5 year deal worth $15.75M, with $13.3M in bonuses. None of these numbers seem to add up..... but anyway

The Vikings would be taking a cap hit of something crazy like $11.9M, because they'd have to pay out the guaranteed option bonuses, and 6/7 of his $1.87M signing bonus.

Then they'd have to turn around and pay Domanick Davis $1.7M (assuming this happens after March 1st).

So the total money spent for Dom Davis for 2006 would be $13.6M this year and the No.7 overall pick from last year's draft.

I suppose for a team with $24-28M in projected cap space can afford this without really mortgaging anything in the offseason. It seems crazy that the Vikings would do this, but I guess they don't see Williamson as matching the skillset of the offense they'll be running? (who knows), but obviously 372 yards and 2 TDs isn't a whole lot of production.

Now, from the Texans standpoint, if they can get this trade done, they'd be sitting on cloud 9 with Reggie Bush and Troy Williamson, and then that just means they'd be drafting a Left Tackle in the second round and probably ILB in the third.

That said, the NFL owners don't play with monopoly money, and $13.6M is a lot of money for one position. I don't think this trade will happen.

It'd be much cheaper for them to just give the Texans their first round pick for Davis... and that doesn't seem very likely at all....

 

[TheFanatic]

If im the texans, I trade with the jets to the 4th spot, the jets can take bush, and we take d`brick. Get some extra picks in the process, and I dont care what anyone says, Dbrick at 1.4 will cost less then Dbrick at 1.1

And the assertion that it will cost them more next year because they will have 2 first round picks (possibly 2 high first rounders) is silly. That pick is a commodity. If one can amass them, one can trade them for other cheaper options. Say they wind up with the Jets 1st rounder next year and it's a top 5 pick. They could possibly trade that pick to get a lower 1st rounder in 2007 and a 1st in 2008. Teams don't pass on trading down for risk of acquiring MORE 1st rounders. 1st rounders are gold in the NFL.

 

[cstu]

Who would you rather invest your $ on? A blue-chip RB that might be a little small or a top-notch LT that can anchor your line for a long time?

Take a look at whats out there for LeftTs and RBs.

This is a no-brainer, except when considering ticket sales "now".

I wish more people would think about this. Taking a look at the free agent list it's pretty clear that good LT's are a lot more difficult to get than good RB's.

 

[cstu]

As stated above, their are some real good OL prospects in the draft, the senior bowl definately showed that. However I see alot of everyone talking about them like they will be still be around in the 2nd and 3rd rounds like people were projecting them before the senior bowl. A couple nice workouts and your looking at a run on lineman in the first round. People just assume somone like Jean Giles is going to be around at 2.1, but I would be very suprised.

If im the texans, I trade with the jets to the 4th spot, the jets can take bush, and we take d`brick. Get some extra picks in the process, and I dont care what anyone says, Dbrick at 1.4 will cost less then Dbrick at 1.1

Jean Giles is a Guard, not LT. He may be a very good Guard and maybe even worth a 1st round pick, but he's not a franchise LT. I think that Ferguson will develop into one of the premier LT's in the NFL. With the OL depth in the draft, I don't even think it would be a mistake for the Texans to draft Ferguson and another tackle like Eric Winston in the top of the 2nd.

 

[Blackjacks]

If im the texans, I trade with the jets to the 4th spot, the jets can take bush, and we take d`brick. Get some extra picks in the process, and I dont care what anyone says, Dbrick at 1.4 will cost less then Dbrick at 1.1

And the assertion that it will cost them more next year because they will have 2 first round picks (possibly 2 high first rounders) is silly. That pick is a commodity. If one can amass them, one can trade them for other cheaper options. Say they wind up with the Jets 1st rounder next year and it's a top 5 pick. They could possibly trade that pick to get a lower 1st rounder in 2007 and a 1st in 2008. Teams don't pass on trading down for risk of acquiring MORE 1st rounders. 1st rounders are gold in the NFL.

God I hate to agree witht he fanatic but I have to. No NFL team would turn down getting a 1st round pick due to more money.Good call Scotty

 

[Sinrman]

Great article, even though I disagree with different points and there are some incorrect points as pointed above by others. But overall, a good one!

 

[GregR_2]

The Texans, then, are now sitting a number hovering around $87M, or between $5-9M under the 2006 salary cap (the cap is still unknown, but estimated to be between $92-96M).

You're leaving out a $2m cap credit. The Texans are currently about $9.2m under a $92m cap with their present roster. As others have pointed out, this is not taking into account the players that may be cut or asked to restructure. Some of the O-line like McKinney and Wiegert are being way overpaid for how well they are paying, with big salaries but small cap hits for releasing.

The No.1 overall pick will command at minimum a six year, $45M deal. And if the past two years are any indication, the top pick should receive somewhere in the neighborhood of a $20M signing bonus. So, at a minimum, this top pick will run about $10M against the cap.

Let's use Alex Smith's contract as the template. He had a $49.5m contract over 6 years. His bonus of $24m prorated is $4m a year. He has a $500k salary this year (and a $1m salary next year). If Bush got a #1 pick QB's contract, that's $4.5m against the cap the first year unless they choose to pay him more up front in a roster bonus.

For the sake of captology, the only sense this makes is to lower the cap number for the player they are targeting...

It doesn't make sense to trade down to acquire more picks to fill their other numerous holes? They have the cap room to do it.

This year, there are no franchise Left Tackles in free agency, and there is only one option for the Texans if they want to solve Left Tackle once and for all: draft D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the first overall pick.

Depending on which scout you go by, there are as many as 4 OT who are potential first rounders. Since few scouts seem to have all 4 of them up there (most have 2-3, but which ones vary), there is a very good chance the Texans can get one of them with their 2.1 pick. They also have the 3.1 and 3.2 picks that might garner some other decent linemen.

 

[cstu]

QUOTEThis year, there are no franchise Left Tackles in free agency, and there is only one option for the Texans if they want to solve Left Tackle once and for all: draft D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the first overall pick.-----------Depending on which scout you go by, there are as many as 4 OT who are potential first rounders. Since few scouts seem to have all 4 of them up there (most have 2-3, but which ones vary), there is a very good chance the Texans can get one of them with their 2.1 pick. They also have the 3.1 and 3.2 picks that might garner some other decent linemen.

Basically you are advocating that the Texans leave the critical LT position up to the chance that one of the remaining top 5 LT's in the draft (Justice, Scott, McNeil, and Winston) last until the 2nd round. With the priority on the position, I can easily see all 5 going 1st round. That would force them to reach and take O'Callahan (LT or better at G?) or Colledge (definite upside) as their guy and I don't think either will last until the 3rd. After those guys I don't see many true LT's in the draft.

 

[cstu]

QUOTE(MLBrandow @ Feb 12 2006, 11:33 PM)

The Texans, then, are now sitting a number hovering around $87M, or between $5-9M under the 2006 salary cap (the cap is still unknown, but estimated to be between $92-96M).

-----------------------------

You're leaving out a $2m cap credit. The Texans are currently about $9.2m under a $92m cap with their present roster.

As others have pointed out, this is not taking into account the players that may be cut or asked to restructure. Some of the O-line like McKinney and Wiegert are being way overpaid for how well they are paying, with big salaries but small cap hits for releasing.

This is another reason why I like them taking D'Brick. If one of the other top 5 tackles last until the 2nd they can take one of them and cut Wiegert. They would have a cap savings of $2.8M ($3.5 salary - $1.4M cap hit on bonus) by cutting Wiegart and have an upgrade at the position. If they also cut McKinney they can save another $4M, but he may be worth keeping since he's the best OL they have.An OL of Ferguson, Pitts, McKinney, a RG in the draft/FA, and Winston would be one of the top ones in the league.

 

[MLBrandow]

QUOTE

This year, there are no franchise Left Tackles in free agency, and there is only one option for the Texans if they want to solve Left Tackle once and for all: draft D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the first overall pick.

-----------

Depending on which scout you go by, there are as many as 4 OT who are potential first rounders. Since few scouts seem to have all 4 of them up there (most have 2-3, but which ones vary), there is a very good chance the Texans can get one of them with their 2.1 pick. They also have the 3.1 and 3.2 picks that might garner some other decent linemen.

Basically you are advocating that the Texans leave the critical LT position up to the chance that one of the remaining top 5 LT's in the draft (Justice, Scott, McNeil, and Winston) last until the 2nd round. With the priority on the position, I can easily see all 5 going 1st round. That would force them to reach and take O'Callahan (LT or better at G?) or Colledge (definite upside) as their guy and I don't think either will last until the 3rd. After those guys I don't see many true LT's in the draft.

I couldn't agree more here. The Texans have left LT up to chance the past few seasons, and it has not worked out. You can't leave a position like that up to chance, you have to take it when you can get it.

 

[beto]

QUOTE

This year, there are no franchise Left Tackles in free agency, and there is only one option for the Texans if they want to solve Left Tackle once and for all: draft D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the first overall pick.

-----------

Depending on which scout you go by, there are as many as 4 OT who are potential first rounders. Since few scouts seem to have all 4 of them up there (most have 2-3, but which ones vary), there is a very good chance the Texans can get one of them with their 2.1 pick. They also have the 3.1 and 3.2 picks that might garner some other decent linemen.

Basically you are advocating that the Texans leave the critical LT position up to the chance that one of the remaining top 5 LT's in the draft (Justice, Scott, McNeil, and Winston) last until the 2nd round. With the priority on the position, I can easily see all 5 going 1st round. That would force them to reach and take O'Callahan (LT or better at G?) or Colledge (definite upside) as their guy and I don't think either will last until the 3rd. After those guys I don't see many true LT's in the draft.

I couldn't agree more here. The Texans have left LT up to chance the past few seasons, and it has not worked out. You can't leave a position like that up to chance, you have to take it when you can get it.

Chance, shmance. They can always trade up if the LT they want is still on the board in the late 1st.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

QUOTE

This year, there are no franchise Left Tackles in free agency, and there is only one option for the Texans if they want to solve Left Tackle once and for all: draft D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the first overall pick.

-----------

Depending on which scout you go by, there are as many as 4 OT who are potential first rounders. Since few scouts seem to have all 4 of them up there (most have 2-3, but which ones vary), there is a very good chance the Texans can get one of them with their 2.1 pick. They also have the 3.1 and 3.2 picks that might garner some other decent linemen.

Basically you are advocating that the Texans leave the critical LT position up to the chance that one of the remaining top 5 LT's in the draft (Justice, Scott, McNeil, and Winston) last until the 2nd round. With the priority on the position, I can easily see all 5 going 1st round. That would force them to reach and take O'Callahan (LT or better at G?) or Colledge (definite upside) as their guy and I don't think either will last until the 3rd. After those guys I don't see many true LT's in the draft.

I couldn't agree more here. The Texans have left LT up to chance the past few seasons, and it has not worked out. You can't leave a position like that up to chance, you have to take it when you can get it.

Chance, shmance. They can always trade up if the LT they want is still on the board in the late 1st.

When was the last time 5 LT's went in the 1st round? Has that ever even happened?The depth of this O-line class makes D'Bricks value even less, and with his poor finish to the year the gap between him and the other linemen in most scout's eyes isn't as large as most people on the outside think it is.

We always talk about tiers in FF, and the same applies to the real NFL. If the Texans can grab a tackle from the same tier as D'Brick, AND get Bush as well, that is a way better option.

 

[Memphis Foundry]

This thread is picking up some steam so it is now the *** Official *** Texans offseason thread. Thanks, guys.

 

[GregR_2]

QUOTE

This year, there are no franchise Left Tackles in free agency, and there is only one option for the Texans if they want to solve Left Tackle once and for all: draft D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the first overall pick.

-----------

Depending on which scout you go by, there are as many as 4 OT who are potential first rounders. Since few scouts seem to have all 4 of them up there (most have 2-3, but which ones vary), there is a very good chance the Texans can get one of them with their 2.1 pick. They also have the 3.1 and 3.2 picks that might garner some other decent linemen.

Basically you are advocating that the Texans leave the critical LT position up to the chance that one of the remaining top 5 LT's in the draft (Justice, Scott, McNeil, and Winston) last until the 2nd round. With the priority on the position, I can easily see all 5 going 1st round. That would force them to reach and take O'Callahan (LT or better at G?) or Colledge (definite upside) as their guy and I don't think either will last until the 3rd. After those guys I don't see many true LT's in the draft.

I couldn't agree more here. The Texans have left LT up to chance the past few seasons, and it has not worked out. You can't leave a position like that up to chance, you have to take it when you can get it.

It is only leaving it up to chance if you are going to sit back passively and do nothing if you see the tackles are going faster than you thought. To use a poker term, they should play it tight but aggressive. If it looks like they will get a tackle they are happy with, they wait for him to come to them. If the tackles are being taken quicker than that, they move up higher into the round. With the extra 3.2 pick from the Saints, they have that option. Though it's probably more likely that one of those tackles makes it to them.

 

[nygiants56]

For the sake of captology, the only sense this makes is to lower the cap number for the player they are targeting, but if you look back only two years, you might see a problem. For starters, let's say that the Texans worked out a deal with New Orleans to swap picks for the sole reason of lowering the cap number of D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who they want more. For the sake of trade, we'll just say that the Texans, in their infinite kindness, have volunteered to swap picks for free so the Saints could draft Leinart or Young (preferably the QB that the Titans wanted), so there would be no additional cap rammifications.

Good article, but I don't think the Saints would swap picks even w/o compensation. They don't want to take the cap hit any more than Houston does. I know that another team could try to jump them and grab Leinart, but if that were the case I think they would just take Young at the discounted price.

we haven't heard the end of it all from the Titans...they'll make a pitch for leinhart OR bush, BIGTIME..what if Tenn throws in their second round pick or a player, to swap with houston for the #1 overall pick???all this talk of Young going to Tenn is nonsense..Chow and Fisher are BOTH USC guys..Leinhart is dropping hints like he's going to Tenn...yes, Young and McNair are buddies..but Chow and Leinhart and Bush are buddies...i'd like to think coaching tendencies and comfort zones mean more than players (mcNair) who make recommendations about draft picks(Young)...

i'd bet houston moves to #3, takes the brick, gets a plyer and/or a second round pick from Tenn for moving down two spots...

Kubiak is no dummy, he knows all he needs is a solid line for his system to work...

 

[MLBrandow]

For the sake of captology, the only sense this makes is to lower the cap number for the player they are targeting, but if you look back only two years, you might see a problem. For starters, let's say that the Texans worked out a deal with New Orleans to swap picks for the sole reason of lowering the cap number of D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who they want more. For the sake of trade, we'll just say that the Texans, in their infinite kindness, have volunteered to swap picks for free so the Saints could draft Leinart or Young (preferably the QB that the Titans wanted), so there would be no additional cap rammifications.

Good article, but I don't think the Saints would swap picks even w/o compensation. They don't want to take the cap hit any more than Houston does. I know that another team could try to jump them and grab Leinart, but if that were the case I think they would just take Young at the discounted price.

we haven't heard the end of it all from the Titans...they'll make a pitch for leinhart OR bush, BIGTIME..what if Tenn throws in their second round pick or a player, to swap with houston for the #1 overall pick???all this talk of Young going to Tenn is nonsense..Chow and Fisher are BOTH USC guys..Leinhart is dropping hints like he's going to Tenn...yes, Young and McNair are buddies..but Chow and Leinhart and Bush are buddies...i'd like to think coaching tendencies and comfort zones mean more than players (mcNair) who make recommendations about draft picks(Young)...

i'd bet houston moves to #3, takes the brick, gets a plyer and/or a second round pick from Tenn for moving down two spots...

Kubiak is no dummy, he knows all he needs is a solid line for his system to work...

See, this is what I believe is the only possible trade option. And the fact that it's an intradivision makes it harder to predict.But I could very well see them trading maybe Travis Henry, a 2nd and their No.3 pick.

In this scenario, Tennessee would land Leinart and NO would land AJ Hawk or Vince Young; and the Houstons potentially end up with D'Brickashaw Ferguson (best LT), D'Qwell Jackson(best ILB), and then a solid second tier safety that can probably come in and start. That addresses their 3 biggest needs with the draft, picks up depth at RB, and then they can use that third rounder on perhaps a right guard/center or even another ILB.

It seems to me, in the position that Tennessee is in and the position that the Texans are in, even trading witth each other would be very beneficial because Texans won't need a lot to move to No.3, and the Titans won't need to give up much to secure Leinart.

Anyone have a brief history of past instances of intradivision trading?

 

[psychobillies]

For the sake of captology, the only sense this makes is to lower the cap number for the player they are targeting, but if you look back only two years, you might see a problem. For starters, let's say that the Texans worked out a deal with New Orleans to swap picks for the sole reason of lowering the cap number of D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who they want more. For the sake of trade, we'll just say that the Texans, in their infinite kindness, have volunteered to swap picks for free so the Saints could draft Leinart or Young (preferably the QB that the Titans wanted), so there would be no additional cap rammifications.

Good article, but I don't think the Saints would swap picks even w/o compensation. They don't want to take the cap hit any more than Houston does. I know that another team could try to jump them and grab Leinart, but if that were the case I think they would just take Young at the discounted price.

we haven't heard the end of it all from the Titans...they'll make a pitch for leinhart OR bush, BIGTIME..what if Tenn throws in their second round pick or a player, to swap with houston for the #1 overall pick???all this talk of Young going to Tenn is nonsense..Chow and Fisher are BOTH USC guys..Leinhart is dropping hints like he's going to Tenn...yes, Young and McNair are buddies..but Chow and Leinhart and Bush are buddies...i'd like to think coaching tendencies and comfort zones mean more than players (mcNair) who make recommendations about draft picks(Young)...

i'd bet houston moves to #3, takes the brick, gets a plyer and/or a second round pick from Tenn for moving down two spots...

Kubiak is no dummy, he knows all he needs is a solid line for his system to work...

See, this is what I believe is the only possible trade option. And the fact that it's an intradivision makes it harder to predict.But I could very well see them trading maybe Travis Henry, a 2nd and their No.3 pick.

In this scenario, Tennessee would land Leinart and NO would land AJ Hawk or Vince Young; and the Houstons potentially end up with D'Brickashaw Ferguson (best LT), D'Qwell Jackson(best ILB), and then a solid second tier safety that can probably come in and start. That addresses their 3 biggest needs with the draft, picks up depth at RB, and then they can use that third rounder on perhaps a right guard/center or even another ILB.

It seems to me, in the position that Tennessee is in and the position that the Texans are in, even trading witth each other would be very beneficial because Texans won't need a lot to move to No.3, and the Titans won't need to give up much to secure Leinart.

Anyone have a brief history of past instances of intradivision trading?

OK. But what if the Saints take Brick. Imagine an O line with D'Brick, Bentley and Jamal Brown. That would be at least worth consideration

 

[gocats]

The Best Column About The Houston Texans War Room In The History Of The World, Ever.

February 13, 2006 12:31a.m. EST

M.L. Brandow, Freelance Columnist

First, before I go into having to openly defend myself against Ferguson being drafted No.1 overall, there needs to be some clearing up of facts. It seems there is a lot of misinformation going around and unfounded speculation about what's going on inside the Houston Texans War Room for the upcoming draft in April. While none of us can know exactly what they will do come draft day, hopefully a look into some numbers should help make for some more educated guesses and better lines of logic.

So, let's have a look at the key players and the root of all evil, wom--err... money. The Salary Cap Demon.

Hi, I'm Domanick Davis, And You Can't Find A Single Fantasy Football Player That Likes Me:

In 2005 Davis signed a $21.1 million contract extension in the final year of his rookie contract. Davis received a $5 million signing bonus and the same $380,000 base salary — the minimum for a third-year player — he was scheduled to make in his original contract. Davis will be paid a $1.2 million option bonus in March. He'll also receive an $800,000 roster bonus next year.

Here are the exact cap numbers for his contract per year:

2005 380000.00 (+$5M SB)

2006 1700000.00 (+$1.2M OB)

2007 3340000.00 ($800k RB)

2008 4180000.00

2009 4550000.00

Hi, I'm Not Joey Harrington, I'm David Carr:

David Carr's contract would have expired and sent him to unrestricted free agency in March had the Texans not picked up his $8M option bonus. Carr’s extension calls for base salaries of $5.25 million this year, $5.5 million in 2007 and $6 million in 2008. As the top pick in the 2002 draft, Carr already has made $22 million over his first four years, not counting incentive bonuses. Barring a career-ending injury and a restructuring for salary-cap purposes, Carr will earn $46.75 million over the first seven years of his career.

Here are the exact cap numbers for his contract per year:

2006 5250000.00 (+$8M OB)

2007 5500000.00

2008 6000000.00

Hi, I'm Texans GM Charley Casserly, and I Approved This Message:

Because option bonuses are prorated, Carr's extension effectively has just cost them $9M against this year's cap ($5.25M base salary, $3.75M prorated option bonus). The Texans, then, are now sitting a number hovering around $87M, or between $5-9M under the 2006 salary cap (the cap is still unknown, but estimated to be between $92-96M).

The No.1 overall pick will command at minimum a six year, $45M deal. And if the past two years are any indication, the top pick should receive somewhere in the neighborhood of a $20M signing bonus. So, at a minimum, this top pick will run about $10M against the cap.

Come On Now, Reggie Can't Do Everythang:

Obviously, the selection of Reggie Bush means the end of Domanick Davis in Houston. But, what many people fail to realize is that just because Bush is drafted doesn't mean that Davis has to be removed from the team. Davis' contract is conveniently set up so that if the Texans were to draft Bush, they could keep Davis until after the 2006 season, then trade/release him.

Trading/releasing Davis before March 1st would accelerate the remaining $4M of the $5M signing bonus he signed in 2005 and generate a net cap hit of $2.3M. And trading/releasing Davis after March 1st would incorporate the $1.2M option bonus and increase that cap hit to $3.5M. So if this were to happen for a team with limited funds and so many questions, there would have to be a damn good offer to warrant paying off their backup plan, especially without the money to solve their offensive line problems beyond some patchwork and improved schemes.

However, if the Texans opt to keep Davis around this season and trade/release him in 2007, they would save $1.14M. Therefore, if the Texans opt to draft Reggie Bush, we're going to see a two-headed RB monster in Houston in 2006.

I'm Matt Leinart, And There's Not A Chance In Hell I'm Going To The Texans, So I'm Going To Be Grouped With Vince Young. Did You Know He's From Texas? That's Where Houston is, It's In Texas:

Naturally, a Quarterback pick signifies the end of David Carr in Houston. Before the Texans picked up Carr's option bonus, he'd be an unrestricted free agent in March, thus paving the way for a new QB. But now that they have, we're in a whole different ballpark. Trading/releasing Carr before June 1st (e.g. a draft day trade) would charge the Texans a whopping $13.25M. So we can rule out that possibility.

Trading/releasing Carr after June 1st would still charge the Texans $2.67M against this year's cap from his option bonus, and then create $10.58M in dead money next year. This also seems very unlikely.

Trading/releasing Car in 2007, however, would save the Texans $167k. So, if the Texans opted to draft a QB with the top overall pick, Carr won't be traded until next year. To put that in perspective, consider that David Carr, if he puts up similar numbers next year, is at least a nonhorrible QB. Whether you think that he is capable of going to nine Pro Bowls or that he's a bum just like Joey Harrington, the Texans decision to pick up his $8M option bonus doesn't mean they won't draft a Quarterback, just that David Carr will play for the Texans for at least one more year.

Hi, I'm D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and I'm Going To Eat Seth Wand And Scare Chester Pitts To Right Guard:

Sadly, this would mean the end of the Seth Wand/Chester Pitts reign at Left Tackle (or Left Revolving Door, as I like to call it). For what it's worth, Pitts was initially supposed to be the starting Left Guard this season, where he's played every snap (between LG and RG) since his rookie year in 2002. If, for some reason, Mike Shanahan feels the need to use another 3rd round pick on a guy who won't make it through the preseason, he can tender the $380,000 qualifying offer on Wand's RFA contract.

If you remember last year, the Texans were prepared to give up at least a first round pick for Rams LT Orlando Pace, but he ended up re-signing with St. Louis for a 7year/$52M deal, so you know that it was known coming into this season that Left Tackle was a big problem, and that the Texans had tried (and failed) to solve it. There are no real drawbacks here from a salary cap standpoint.

"With The First Pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, acquired from the Houston Texans....."

For the sake of captology, the only sense this makes is to lower the cap number for the player they are targeting, but if you look back only two years, you might see a problem. For starters, let's say that the Texans worked out a deal with New Orleans to swap picks for the sole reason of lowering the cap number of D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who they want more. For the sake of trade, we'll just say that the Texans, in their infinite kindness, have volunteered to swap picks for free so the Saints could draft Leinart or Young (preferably the QB that the Titans wanted), so there would be no additional cap rammifications.

Now, as for the salary, rookie contracts in the first round are usually dictated by the histories of players before them, and so a good agent tries to get at least that amount for their client from the year before. The last time a Left Tackle was drafted No.2 overall was Robert Gallery just two years ago. His rookie contract was a whopping seven year, $60M. And Ferguson is almost a consensus from draft scouts as a better LT prospect than Gallery.

Let's say they pull off the Giants/Rivers trade from that same year (No.1 to No.4). Well, in that trade, San Diego received also received the Giants' 2005 first round pick, which invariably costs money. If the Jets traded their first round pick to trade up, the Texans would still have to pay that money eventually, and they are in no shape cap-wise to sign two first-round draft choices next year (unlike San Diego who had $25M in cap room).

So, regardless of whether the Texans take Ferguson with the top pick or trade down a few spots, they won't really be saving any money, and stand a good chance of being in worse cap shape as a result.

Okay, Genius, What's Going To Happen?

Well, in my mocks, D'Brickashaw Ferguson goes No.1 overall to the Houston Texans. For aforementioned reasons, a trade down with Ferguson still going to the Texans is very unlikely. From Day one, since the Texans drafted Tony Boselli with their first pick in the expansion draft, it's apparent that this front office realizes you need a left tackle to win in this game, no matter what level of talent you have in the backfield. Perhaps if Boselli had actually played a down of football in a Texans uniform, we might not even be having this discussion.

I can guarantee you that Matt Leinart and Vince Young aren't going to the Texans. Every NFL Scout agrees that David Carr still has all the tools to succeed on an NFL level, and simply needs a line that can block for him, and weapons that can stay healthy. And while drafting Vince Young would raise a big cheer in the Houston area on draft day, those same scouts all agree that Vince Young won't be any good as a rookie, and is maybe two seasons away from being an NFL Quarterback. That means this team, if they draft Young, would be maintaining the status quo from last year (minus the coaching changes).

We've seen that a healthy Texans team can win 7 games, and an injury-depleted team can win at least a couple. Either way, it's still a sub-.500 team, and Texans fans will be even more engered if Young sits on the bench for two years. The team could draft Matt Leinart, who grades out as a better prospect than Carr did, but then you have to ask yourself, is mortgaging one No.1 overall pick for another one really a good idea?

As for the Reggie Bush Mania, all I can say is look what the Broncos have done under Kubiak as Offensive Coordinator since 1995. Even Olandis Gary had a 1,000 yard season. They can stick anyone in there and have a great rushing attack. As for the offensive line, one thing you'll notice is this: every member of that line (Matt Lepsis, Ben Hamilton, Tom Nalen, Cooper Carlisle, George Foster) has played every down in the NFL as a Bronco. They don't trade for linemen or sign them through free agency, they draft and groom them. That's because they need those system blockers that can excel in the zone-blocking scheme that Denver runs in order to get those Running Backs those 1,000 yard seasons. Drafting a stud back would contradict the ideals of the offense, because there isn't a line in place to make this system work.

At that, when Kubiak gets his way with the front office, they'll be investing a couple early picks in this year's draft on the offensive line. Even if you're one to believe Kubiak has absolutely no say in anything, the Texans' short history clearly indicates (to me, at least), that they will be taking Ferguson with the first pick in the draft. Left Tackle has been a priority and they have tried several times to solidify the position.

In 2002 with Boselli expected to anchor the offensive line, the Texans understandably ignored the Tackle position altogether. In 2003, after Boselli had missed the entire season, and amidst speculation was heavy that he may not be able to make a comeback (as was the case later that year in July when he retired), the Texans spent a 3rd rounder on a potential replacement in Seth Wand. After seeing some flashes of promise in Wand late in the season in a few starts, the Texans decided Left Tackle wouldn't be a problem position for them, and ignored it in the 2004 draft. Heading into the 2005 draft, the Texans realized that Wand may not be the answer, and aggressively pursued Orlando Pace. They were willing then to give up a first round pick for him, but decided two first rounders was simply too high to upgrade the position.

This year, there are no franchise Left Tackles in free agency, and there is only one option for the Texans if they want to solve Left Tackle once and for all: draft D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the first overall pick.

Nice thread

 

[Sheriff66]

"The Brick" is a good prospect. Not a great one. I wouldn't be surprised if another LT goes in front of him once the combines roll around.

 

[TheFanatic]

In this scenario, Tennessee would land Leinart and NO would land AJ Hawk or Vince Young; and the Houstons potentially end up with D'Brickashaw Ferguson (best LT), D'Qwell Jackson(best ILB), and then a solid second tier safety that can probably come in and start. That addresses their 3 biggest needs with the draft, picks up depth at RB, and then they can use that third rounder on perhaps a right guard/center or even another ILB.

So that would leave Bush there at 4 for the Jets? I'm not sure that happens. If this scenario pans out the Texans should threaten to take Bush at 3 and try to get the Jets to give up somehting to swap picks.....