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Iran attacks US base in Iraq (1 Viewer)

TheIronSheik said:
I mean, it happened to Russia just a couple of years ago.  It's not that crazy of a thought.  Honestly, I think it's a crazier thought to think that it was a coincidence to have a plane fall out of the sky with "engine trouble" hours after they shot of a dozen missiles into another country.
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I'm in this camp too.

I mentioned that AA flight that crashed in NYC not long after 9/11...even a month or two later still felt too coincidental, even though it was shown to be mech failure. Within an hour of missiles firing? Horrible tragedy either way...and hope whatever the cause, the tragedy helps deescalate things.

 
Thousands and thousands of planes in the air all at once all over the globe at any given time.  This one just happens to crash during this time. Iran won't hand over the black box.  Coincidence is one thing. Common sense is another.

 
TheIronSheik said:
If there truly isn't any casualties and no major damage, I think the best thing the POTUS can do is come on TV and say, "We took out their top general who has been killing our people for decades.  And they shot 15 missiles that hit nothing more than desert.  I'm happy with where we are right now." Then I would send a letter to Geneva saying it's time to talk.  If they truly want to deescalate, let's talk.  And let's make it known to the world that we are willing to talk.  And let's also make it known that if Iran or any of it's terrorist funded cells attacks us again, they will be starting the last war they ever know.

This way we've let the entire world know that the ball is in Iran's court.  If they want peace, we're all for it.  If they want war, that's cool, too.  Because they cannot win a war against us.  
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I agree with the sentiment of most besides the bolded.  I am not sure how much we have "won" the last few wars we have been in and Iran is bigger than Iraq, isn't it?  Dunno - I guess I usually just shy away from comments like that and others I saw last night about turning countries into a dust cloud or a piece of glass.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
I agree with the sentiment of most besides the bolded.  I am not sure how much we have "won" the last few wars we have been in and Iran is bigger than Iraq, isn't it?  Dunno - I guess I usually just shy away from comments like that and others I saw last night about turning countries into a dust cloud or a piece of glass.  
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I'll start by saying I don't want war.  Just to make that clear.  But Iran is different than Iraq or Afghanistan.  A lot of people don't realize this, but Iran is not really a third world nation.  They have large cities, they have theaters, they have ski resorts and amusement parks.  They are a functioning nation.  If you drop a bomb on Iran, it's different than the other two.  If you knock out power or utilities, that's a huge deal.  Iran doesn't want a war just like America doesn't.  We both have a lot to lose.  Iraq and Afghanistan did not.  

So, yes, Iran is bigger in size, but that means nothing.  We can cripple them from a base outside of Las Vegas.  They can't reach us.  Again, that doesn't mean we won't be affected.  But this is not the powerful US going against people hiding in caves.  

 
I found this an interesting recap from al-jazeera. I don't recall Iran passing legislation labeling US soldiers terrorists hitting the news here...

US-Iran tensions: How confrontation between rivals escalated

A recap of events that led to US killing of Qassem Soleimani and Iran's retaliatory strikes on US targets in Iraq.

Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated dramatically after a top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani was killed last week in a US air strike in Iraq.

Iran fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two Iraqi military bases hosting US troops early on Wednesday, a move it said was in retaliation to Soleimani's assassination on January 3.

Washington argues it killed Soleimani, who headed Iran's elite Quds Force, in self-defence, aiming to disrupt his plans to attack US personnel and interests.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had pledged to take "severe revenge" for Soleimani's death, the biggest escalation yet in a feared proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq, where Washington and Tehran have vied for influence since the US-led invasion in 2003.

While the US has maintained a military presence in the country, leading a coalition to fight the ISIL (ISIS) group, Iran wields vast influence over Iraqi politics and also backs a number of Iraqi militias within the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an umbrella of armed groups. The militias have long sought the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.

Amid growing fears of a broader conflict in the region, here is a recap of the recent events. 

US contractor killed

On December 27, a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base in Kirkuk killed a US contractor and wounded several US service members and Iraqi personnel.

In its statement confirming the attack, the US-led coalition against the ISIL did not specify who might be responsible, but US officials later blamed Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia, for the attack.

Analysis: Did the US just 'declared war' against Iran? (10:11)

US targets militia sites

Two days later, the US military carried out "defensive strikes" on sites in Iraq and Syria belonging to Kataib Hezbollah that Washington said was in retaliation for the killing of the US contractor. 

Iraqi security and militia sources said at least 25 fighters were killed and 55 others wounded following the air attacks in Iraq on Sunday.

Are the US and Iran heading for a confrontation on Iraqi soil?

At least four Kataib Hezbollah commanders were among the dead, the sources said, adding that one of the raids had hit the Iran-backed group's headquarters near the western al-Qaim district on the border with Syria.

Iran strongly condemned the attacks with a government spokesman saying: "America has shown its firm support for terrorism and its neglect for the independence and sovereignty of countries and it must accept consequences for its illegal act."

Protesters storm US embassy 

On December 31, enraged members and supporters of pro-Iranian paramilitary groups in Iraq, broke into the heavily fortified US embassy compound in Baghdad, smashing a main door and setting parts of its perimeter on fire.

US President Donald Trump blamed Iran for killing the US contractor and the ensuing tensions around the embassy.

"Iran is orchestrating an attack on the US Embassy in Iraq. They will be held fully responsible," he wrote on Twitter. 

Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump

 · Dec 31, 2019

The U.S. Embassy in Iraq is, & has been for hours, SAFE! Many of our great Warfighters, together with the most lethal military equipment in the world, was immediately rushed to the site. Thank you to the President & Prime Minister of Iraq for their rapid response upon request....

Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump

....Iran will be held fully responsible for lives lost, or damage incurred, at any of our facilities. They will pay a very BIG PRICE! This is not a Warning, it is a Threat. Happy New Year!

US troops and Iraqi security forces fired tear gas and stun grenades at the protesters - PMF members and their supporters - who had encircled the embassy compound.

The sit-in ended on January 1. 

A protester holds a placard with US President Donald Trump illustration burning outside the US embassy during a protest in Baghdad on January 1, 2020 [File: Khalid al-Mousily/Reuters]

Meanwhile, on January 2, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said there were "some indications" that Iran or groups it supports "may be planning additional attacks" on US interests in the Middle East. 

"If that happens then we will act and by the way, if we get word of attacks or some type indication, we will take pre-emptive action as well to protect American forces to protect American lives," the Pentagon chief told reporters.

Soleimani assassination

On January 3, a pre-dawn US air strike near Baghdad's international airport killed Soleimani, Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and several others.

A three-day national mourning period ended in Iran on Tuesday, as thousands gathered for Soleimani's burial in his hometown of Kerman, a day after huge crowds took part in an emotionally-charged funeral procession in Tehran and the holy city of Qom. 

Coffins of Soleimani and others who were killed in Iraq by a US drone strike, are carried on a truck surrounded by mourners during a funeral procession, in the city of Kerman, Iran, on January 7, 2020 [Erfan Kouchari/Tasnim News Agency via AP]

War of words

A highly-charged rhetoric from Washington and Tehran followed Soleimani's killing, prompting calls for de-escalation and diplomacy from world leaders and the United Nations. 

Iran's Khamenei said "a harsh retaliation is waiting", while Trump threatened to hit 52 Iranian sites "very hard" if Tehran attacked US citizens or assets.

Khamenei and Trump react to Iranian missile attacks

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned the US that its days in the region are "numbered".

"Iran will respond because there was an act of war - an act of war combined with an act of terrorism against a senior official of the Islamic Republic of Iran and a citizen of Iran," Zarif told Al Jazeera in an interview on Tuesday. 

Iran's parliament also unanimously passed a bill on Tuesday designating all US forces as "terrorists". 

Iran fires back at US targets 

In the early hours of Wednesday, Iran launched more than a dozen missiles from its territory against at least two Iraqi facilities hosting US-led coalition personnel, the Pentagon confirmed.

Iranian state television said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had attacked Ain al-Assad military base, where US troops are stationed. A second facility near Erbil airport was also hit.

The Iraqi military said in a statement that 22 missiles were launched on the two sites between 1:45am and 2:15am. Two of the 17 missiles targeting Ain al-Assad base did not go off, the military said, while the five missiles on Erbil all targeted coalition headquarters.
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It was symbolic.  This way if any of the missiles killed any of our forces, they could say they were just taking out a terrorist.  Kind of the same way we did.  Only problem is that the whole world had labeled him a terrorist.  I believe the UN labeled him that in 2012.  So this wasn't just us calling him a global terrorist.  

 
If the Iranians really did shoot a Ukrainian airliner out of the sky ... any chance one of our satellites had eyes on the missile launch? Is that something Iran can do secretly, without being found out?

 
Doug B said:
If the Iranians really did shoot a Ukrainian airliner out of the sky ... any chance one of our satellites had eyes on the missile launch? Is that something Iran can do secretly, without being found out?
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That's a good question.  Does anyone remember how we determined that the Russians shot down the airliner a couple of years ago?

 
TheIronSheik said:
Doug B said:
If the Iranians really did shoot a Ukrainian airliner out of the sky ... any chance one of our satellites had eyes on the missile launch? Is that something Iran can do secretly, without being found out?
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That's a good question.  Does anyone remember how we determined that the Russians shot down the airliner a couple of years ago?
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Furthermore: Airliners have a transponder in their noses that broadcast out their vetted IDs. Air traffic control matches up these IDs against pre-submitted flight plans (in this case, a routine takeoff from a known runway at a known location). So far as I understand ... military radar sees these civilian IDs as well.

Upshot: if it were a shoot-down ... it will be difficult for Iran to play the "fog of war" card.

 
Doug B said:
Furthermore: Airliners have a transponder in their noses that broadcast out their vetted IDs. Air traffic control matches up these IDs against pre-submitted flight plans (in this case, a routine takeoff from a known runway at a known location). So far as I understand ... military radar sees these civilian IDs as well.

Upshot: if it were a shoot-down ... it will be difficult for Iran to play the "fog of war" card.
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The transponder thing won't matter.  For the same reason it didn't matter when Russia did it.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
That's a good question.  Does anyone remember how we determined that the Russians shot down the airliner a couple of years ago?
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Shortly after the crash, Igor Girkin, leader of the Donbass separatists, was reported to have posted on social media network VKontakte, taking credit for downing a Ukrainian An-26. This news was repeated by channels in Russia, with LifeNews reporting "a new victory of Donetsk self-defence who shot down yet another Ukrainian airplane". Russian news agency TASS also reported eyewitness accounts claiming that the Donbass militia had just shot down a Ukrainian An-26 military airplane with a missile. The separatists later denied involvement, saying they did not have the equipment or training to hit a target at that altitude. Russian media also reported that Alexander Borodai called one of the Moscow media managers 40 minutes after the crash, saying that "likely we shot down a civilian airliner".

 
Doug B said:
Shortly after the crash, Igor Girkin, leader of the Donbass separatists, was reported to have posted on social media network VKontakte, taking credit for downing a Ukrainian An-26. This news was repeated by channels in Russia, with LifeNews reporting "a new victory of Donetsk self-defence who shot down yet another Ukrainian airplane". Russian news agency TASS also reported eyewitness accounts claiming that the Donbass militia had just shot down a Ukrainian An-26 military airplane with a missile. The separatists later denied involvement, saying they did not have the equipment or training to hit a target at that altitude. Russian media also reported that Alexander Borodai called one of the Moscow media managers 40 minutes after the crash, saying that "likely we shot down a civilian airliner".
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Ahh.  So they accidentally claimed it.  No chance of that happening here.

 
I mean we've shot down airliners too,  #### happens.  It's a risk of flying with all these automated systems.

 
TheIronSheik said:
The transponder thing won't matter.  For the same reason it didn't matter when Russia did it.  
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It wasn't the formal Russian military, for what that's worth. Looking at the equipment the Russian separatists used in the field (picture at link above), I'm not even sure they bothered to get a transponder reading.

 
It is still early, but honestly this is about as good of a result as we could have hoped at this stage.

 
bigmarc27 said:
Are you personally responding to me because I don’t believe I ever stated anything to that effect. Regardless, it’s Wednesday so let’s see what Thursday brings before we pop the corks. 
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No not at all. To a poster who said this is the closet we have been to WWIII since the Cuban Missle Crisis which I found to be incredibly alarmist and absolutely absurd.

 
Exciting times we live in with a 80 year old man with heart issues going up against a near 80 year old man with some sort of late stage syphilis/dementia who can't walk 10 feet or talk three sentences without running out of breath.

 
Todem said:
No not at all. To a poster who said this is the closet we have been to WWIII since the Cuban Missle Crisis which I found to be incredibly alarmist and absolutely absurd.
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Stop. You’re not allowed to post in his thread if you disagree with him. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
It's not so much them being dumb.  It's what happens in war.  It's the reason there are so many friendly fire incidents in wars.  It's a sad fact, but when split decisions need to be made, a lot of times you make a mistake.  If you just fired off missiles and are on heightened alert for retaliation, a sudden blip on the radar might easily be mistaken for a hostile.  They know we have stealth.  What if a bomber made it into Tehran airspace undetected but can now be seen and you can try to shoot it down before it drops its payload?  
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i cant speak for Iranian radar but it would have been cleared for takeoff so they would know its there

 
TheIronSheik said:
That's a good question.  Does anyone remember how we determined that the Russians shot down the airliner a couple of years ago?
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The difference is this plane flew into the airspace...

Flgith was from  Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur and flew into Ukraine airspace

 
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Can we leave the political comments for the thread of the same nature in the PSF?

This is the fun board.  Not the hostile, "I hate you if you don't agree with me" forum.

TIA
TIS

 
I mean in the end it doesnt matter and its a tragic loss - im just spitballing logistically at this point.

I for one would think there would be some standdown order on all civilain aircraft but dint know how Iran roles  :shrug:

FTR: I think its possible it happened but I don't think it did... may I hope it didn't

 
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belljr said:
I mean in the end it doesnt matter and its a tragic loss - im just spitballing logistically at this point.

I for one would think there would be some standdown order on all civilain aircraft but dint know how Iran roles  :shrug:

FTR: I think its possible it happened but I don't think it did... may I hope it didn't
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Just to be clear, GB, my post about politics wasn't about what you were saying.  Not at all.  I still have mad love for you.  :mellow:

 
This was the plane 

But the 800 version of the jet, also known as a 737 Next Generation or NG, has had its own problems. Following a fatal incident on a Southwest Airlines plane in April 2018, investigators recommended that Boeing modify the model's engines to prevent a repeat accident.

Remember the woman that got sucked out of the plane when the engine blew up -  same plane model

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/19/business/boeing-737-ng-fix-southwest-airlines-fatality/index.html

I can't speak for the maintenance upkeep of foreign airplanes

 
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culdeus said:
Exciting times we live in with a 80 year old man with heart issues going up against a near 80 year old man with some sort of late stage syphilis/dementia who can't walk 10 feet or talk three sentences without running out of breath.
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WTF was that? I honestly thought it was possible he was going to collapse. If I was the Democratic nominee,  a 3 second loop of him huffing and puffing standing at the podium would be the introduction to my website. 

If he is reelected, it would be pretty entertaining to see him cruising around the WH in a rascal. 

 
Iran says they have no plans to send the black box of the airliner that was sho...  err.. I mean experienced engine failure to anyone outside of Iran.  

 
culdeus said:
Exciting times we live in with a 80 year old man with heart issues going up against a near 80 year old man with some sort of late stage syphilis/dementia who can't walk 10 feet or talk three sentences without running out of breath.
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I read this one 3x, and still don't know which is Trump.  

 
Article from NPR showing satellite damage to bases and some interesting talking points (buildings appear to be storage rather than barracks and look to be hit pinpointed and dead-on, implying intent to avoid casualties...bases had early warning systems providing time to react)

 
Was wondering about this given the antagonistic history between Iraq and Iran and the media silence up until now...appears to be growing discontent from Iraq with Iran's violation of their "sovereignty" with these attacks- as there was after Soleimani.

 
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