Iran Launches "Large Scale Attack" on Israel (5 Viewers)

[djmich]

IMO the nuke issue is cover (but a real secondary benefit) for the true Israeli objective of crippling the impact of terrorism on their country. After 10/7 they set out to end it. Started with Hamas in Gaza and ends with cutting off the funding in Iran. If I was them, this is what I'd want to do. In a perfect world, they're successful and the Iranian people also get out from under the rule of an authoritarian religious regime. A win-win? I hope that happens, as we have seen previously there's a good chance it doesn't.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

Thats fine in rhetoric, but logic says Israel has many more of them to deploy and more of Iran would be wiped off the map than Israel.

I understand that and you are maybe probably right. You are saying that they want to stay in power but for me the question is do they care about being in power more or do they care about the destruction of Israel?

 

[KarmaPolice]

Israel has no interest in peace

eh.....this is just a personal opinion right? Mine is quite the opposite. I think Israel just sees Iran as a threat.

The people in their government are not shy about expressing their opinions.

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

Out of curiosity i did some digging on Israel Pakistan relations.
From wiki this seems awfully similar.
Different leaderships of course
“In the 1980s, Israel was said to have planned, with or without Indian assistance, a possible attack on Pakistan's nuclear facilities[21][22] that would be reminiscent of the Israeli attack previously carried out on an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981. Using satellite imagery and intelligence information, Israel reportedly built a full-scale mock-up of the Kahuta nuclear facility in the Negev desert region where Israeli pilots in F-16 and F-15 squadrons practiced mock attacks.

According to The Asian Age, British journalists Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark stated in their book Deception: Pakistan, the US and the Global Weapons Conspiracy that the Israeli Air Force was to launch an air attack on Pakistan's nuclear facility in Kahuta sometime during the mid-1980s from an airfield in Jamnagar, Gujarat, India. The book claims that "in March 1984, Prime Minister Indira Gandhisigned off (on) the Israeli-led operation bringing India, Pakistan and Israel to within a hair's breadth of a nuclear conflagration".[32][page needed] Israel's plan met with disapproval from some Indian officials on the grounds that Israel would not face any major consequences after the strike while India would surely face full-scale retaliation—possibly nuclear—from Pakistan for its involvement in the Israeli attack. The plan was discouraged out of the fear of a fourth Indo-Pakistani war starting as a consequence of this operation, and was shelved indefinitely after Indira Gandhi was assassinated in 1984.

A paper published in the U.S. Air Force Air University system—India Thwarts Israeli Destruction of Pakistan's "Islamic Bomb"—also confirmed this plan's existence. It stated that "Israeli interest in destroying Pakistan's Kahuta reactor to scuttle the 'Islamic bomb' was blocked by India's refusal to grant landing and refuelling rights to Israeli warplanes in 1982." India's refusal to cooperate forced Israel—which on its part wanted the attack to be a joint Indian-Israeli strike to avoid being held solely responsible—to drop the plan.”

 

[FarFromHome]

Always interesting to hear everyone's opinions on serious topics like this. As I read, I can't help but question people's starting point in history. This current Israel attack isn't the starting point for these two nations. The context of the discussion should begin decades before. Many decades. It isn't a very warm history between the two. All Israel needed was the nod from the United States they wouldn't be upset with them. Then all in. Imo

 

[KarmaPolice]

IMO the nuke issue is cover (but a real secondary benefit) for the true Israeli objective of crippling the impact of terrorism on their country. After 10/7 they set out to end it. Started with Hamas in Gaza and ends with cutting off the funding in Iran. If I was them, this is what I'd want to do. In a perfect world, they're successful and the Iranian people also get out from under the rule of an authoritarian religious regime. A win-win? I hope that happens, as we have seen previously there's a good chance it doesn't.

IMO this is an excuse for perpetual war. You can't bomb away terrorism and people who hate us. In fact I would argue that how we have collectively handled our business over the last couple years is leading to a world where more and more people hate Israel and the US. Somebody will step up and fund another group to start the process again.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

Israel has no interest in peace

eh.....this is just a personal opinion right? Mine is quite the opposite. I think Israel just sees Iran as a threat.

The people in their government are not shy about expressing their opinions.

So Israel has said they don't want peace?

 

[BassNBrew]

Did some in depth research over lunch on X after being sucked into a rabbit hole thread regarding the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. They are a GPS guided bomb weighing in at 30,000 lbs. The bomb itself is designed to penetrate about 200' or 61 meters. In 2015 it was reported that 20 bombs had been delivered by Boeing but obviously, no new data is out there. Assuming we've added to the stockpile lets say the number gets to 30 at around $3.5m each.

So the gov't ordered some 737 Max's?

 

[djmich]

IMO the nuke issue is cover (but a real secondary benefit) for the true Israeli objective of crippling the impact of terrorism on their country. After 10/7 they set out to end it. Started with Hamas in Gaza and ends with cutting off the funding in Iran. If I was them, this is what I'd want to do. In a perfect world, they're successful and the Iranian people also get out from under the rule of an authoritarian religious regime. A win-win? I hope that happens, as we have seen previously there's a good chance it doesn't.

IMO this is an excuse for perpetual war. You can't bomb away terrorism and people who hate us. In fact I would argue that how we have collectively handled our business over the last couple years is leading to a world where more and more people hate Israel and the US. Somebody will step up and fund another group to start the process again.

You may disagree (and I don't say that with judgement) but Israel feels they are already in perpetual war. I think the idea that there will always be terrorists is not an acceptable excuse to absorb the aggression of the terrorists you're facing today.

What countries hate the US now that previously didn't.

 

[BassNBrew]

IMO the nuke issue is cover (but a real secondary benefit) for the true Israeli objective of crippling the impact of terrorism on their country. After 10/7 they set out to end it. Started with Hamas in Gaza and ends with cutting off the funding in Iran. If I was them, this is what I'd want to do. In a perfect world, they're successful and the Iranian people also get out from under the rule of an authoritarian religious regime. A win-win? I hope that happens, as we have seen previously there's a good chance it doesn't.

IMO this is an excuse for perpetual war. You can't bomb away terrorism and people who hate us. In fact I would argue that how we have collectively handled our business over the last couple years is leading to a world where more and more people hate Israel and the US. Somebody will step up and fund another group to start the process again.

You may disagree (and I don't say that with judgement) but Israel feels they are already in perpetual war. I think the idea that there will always be terrorists is not an acceptable excuse to absorb the aggression of the terrorists you're facing today.

What countries hate the US now that previously didn't.

Canada.

 

[TLEF316]

IMO the nuke issue is cover (but a real secondary benefit) for the true Israeli objective of crippling the impact of terrorism on their country. After 10/7 they set out to end it. Started with Hamas in Gaza and ends with cutting off the funding in Iran. If I was them, this is what I'd want to do. In a perfect world, they're successful and the Iranian people also get out from under the rule of an authoritarian religious regime. A win-win? I hope that happens, as we have seen previously there's a good chance it doesn't.

IMO this is an excuse for perpetual war. You can't bomb away terrorism and people who hate us. In fact I would argue that how we have collectively handled our business over the last couple years is leading to a world where more and more people hate Israel and the US. Somebody will step up and fund another group to start the process again.

I dont totally disagree.....but what DOES stop the Muslim countries in the middle east from hating Israel?

The Israelis could pack up and vacate Jerusalem tomorrow and the people who hate them would still hate them and take every opportunity to try and harm them.

I dont see how this ever ends.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Israel has no interest in peace

eh.....this is just a personal opinion right? Mine is quite the opposite. I think Israel just sees Iran as a threat.

The people in their government are not shy about expressing their opinions.

So Israel has said they don't want peace?

You brought up a documentary elsewhere, which reminded me of this article I saw on substack for starters.

Benjamin Netanyahu's Manipulation Exposed In New Documentary.

A New Documentary Exposes Benjamin Netanyahu's Manipulation

the307.substack.com

There are links in there, so you can peek at some of their sources. Yes, I think Bibi is a bad dude with bad intentions. I have seen some bonkers statements and interviews with people in his cabinet as well. I think they would say they want peace, but their idea of that is clearing a path around them and taking out whoever is there and removing them one way or the other. Which I guess is their right to do that, but I just which our money wasn't going to supply that. We bring up proxys, and Isreal is basically our proxy since we give them the ability to do all these things. I think participating in this and going into Iran is one of the worst ideas we've had as a country in quite some time. We are nowhere near as strong or unified as we were when we started the other wars after 9/11. IMO this will have some dire consequences for our country.

 

[KarmaPolice]

IMO the nuke issue is cover (but a real secondary benefit) for the true Israeli objective of crippling the impact of terrorism on their country. After 10/7 they set out to end it. Started with Hamas in Gaza and ends with cutting off the funding in Iran. If I was them, this is what I'd want to do. In a perfect world, they're successful and the Iranian people also get out from under the rule of an authoritarian religious regime. A win-win? I hope that happens, as we have seen previously there's a good chance it doesn't.

IMO this is an excuse for perpetual war. You can't bomb away terrorism and people who hate us. In fact I would argue that how we have collectively handled our business over the last couple years is leading to a world where more and more people hate Israel and the US. Somebody will step up and fund another group to start the process again.

You may disagree (and I don't say that with judgement) but Israel feels they are already in perpetual war. I think the idea that there will always be terrorists is not an acceptable excuse to absorb the aggression of the terrorists you're facing today.

What countries hate the US now that previously didn't.

Maybe others like @John Maddens Lunchbox or other FFAers from outside the country are more qualified to answer that.

If they were serious, I posted a link of 25 or so countries that spoke out against Isreal's actions against Iran, and some of those are allies or trading partners. I'd guess a few of those. However, more of what I am saying is that globally Israel is pretty unpopular because of actions since 10/7. Up until now we have been able to hide a little by saying we aren't involved (but everybody really knows who is giving them weapons), but if we are directly bombing Iran for them, even that thin veil falls down. Because of that and other actions this year, I believe we are really isolating ourselves on the world stage and our "friends" will start looking elsewhere.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

If Iran got their hands on a nuclear weapon I don't think they'd bat an eyelash in using them against Israel. They've (the hardliners and zealots) have wanted the destruction of Israel since the 60's.

Thats fine in rhetoric, but logic says Israel has many more of them to deploy and more of Iran would be wiped off the map than Israel.
No good having power if everyone is dead.
Iran would argue they need them for defence after Israel attacked them. Otherwise Israel will just attack them anytime they like with relatively few repercussions.
You dont think Pakistan wouldnt mind seeing Israel gone too? Israel doesnt say boo to them.

I think any conversation about the logical reasons Iran wouldn't use their nukes is a non-starter, because the whole concern is that a bunch of religious zealots would not act logically, as they often don't.

The point that North Korea has nukes and hasn't done anything crazy is salient, but NK has not been in real direct conflict in a long time like the Middle East is constantly.

 

[djmich]

IMO the nuke issue is cover (but a real secondary benefit) for the true Israeli objective of crippling the impact of terrorism on their country. After 10/7 they set out to end it. Started with Hamas in Gaza and ends with cutting off the funding in Iran. If I was them, this is what I'd want to do. In a perfect world, they're successful and the Iranian people also get out from under the rule of an authoritarian religious regime. A win-win? I hope that happens, as we have seen previously there's a good chance it doesn't.

IMO this is an excuse for perpetual war. You can't bomb away terrorism and people who hate us. In fact I would argue that how we have collectively handled our business over the last couple years is leading to a world where more and more people hate Israel and the US. Somebody will step up and fund another group to start the process again.

You may disagree (and I don't say that with judgement) but Israel feels they are already in perpetual war. I think the idea that there will always be terrorists is not an acceptable excuse to absorb the aggression of the terrorists you're facing today.

What countries hate the US now that previously didn't.

Maybe others like @John Maddens Lunchbox or other FFAers from outside the country are more qualified to answer that.

If they were serious, I posted a link of 25 or so countries that spoke out against Isreal's actions against Iran, and some of those are allies or trading partners. I'd guess a few of those. However, more of what I am saying is that globally Israel is pretty unpopular because of actions since 10/7. Up until now we have been able to hide a little by saying we aren't involved (but everybody really knows who is giving them weapons), but if we are directly bombing Iran for them, even that thin veil falls down. Because of that and other actions this year, I believe we are really isolating ourselves on the world stage and our "friends" will start looking elsewhere.

I think all that’s fair, certainly there are risks which, at least in the short term, we wouldnt face if we abandoned Israel. In the long term the net risks function are more murky.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/DAVIDHALBRIGHT1/status/1935715176600203339

Israel damaged both the soon-to-be-finished heavy water Arak, aka Khondab, reactor and the adjacent heavy water production plant. They show that Israel intends to ensure Iran cannot produce plutonium in this reactor, plutonium Israel worries could be used in nuclear weapons. And it wants to ensure Iran cannot build any more heavy water reactors or sell heavy water to unsavory clients

Iran's 'worst ever' internet shutdown enters second day

Digital rights campaigners have described the ongoing internet shutdown in Iran as the worst ever in the country’s history of internet control.

It has now been over 24 hours since the government imposed a nationwide shutdown curtailing communications with the outside world for the vast majority of the country’s 91m people.

“This is the worst internet shutdown in the country’s history,” says Amir Rashidi, from Miaan Group - an advocacy organisation for Iranian human rights.

“It’s worse than in November 2019. Back then, inbound internet traffic to Iran was not completely blocked. But since last night, even inbound traffic has been cut off,” he says in a post on social media.

A total shutdown means that no websites or services can be accessed at all. Even people with VPNs on their phones - most of which are banned already in Iran - are unable to get online.

Satellite Images Show Iran Racing to Get Its Oil Out

The oil storage sites at Kharg Island have floating roofs that rise and fall as they empty and fill, meaning it’s possible to get clues from above as to just how much they’re holding by examining their shadows. And what images from June 11 show is that, for almost all of the large tanks, the roofs were well below the top of the walls. In short, the reservoirs were only partly full.

Fast forward by a week, and a photo from June 18, several days after Israel began its attacks, shows there are no such shadows, indicating that the roofs are now at the top of the walls and the reservoirs are brimming. There are still shadows cast by the tanks onto the ground beside them, confirming that the absence isn’t due to a lack of sunshine. The images were taken less than 10 minutes apart at about 2:40 pm local time on their respective days with nearly the same sensor geometry.
Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com a firm that specializes in monitoring the clandestine oil trade of Iran and other nations using satellite imagery, confirmed that he also saw “ a rise in crude inventories at the island.”
That’s not what you’d expect, given that Iran has been driving up its exports.
If the exports are well above normal, then storage tanks should be emptying — unless Iran is also directing even more crude into the facility. The inference, then, is that Iran is sending as much as possible to the global market while it can.

“It seems very clear what they’re doing,” Madani said of Iran’s approach. “They’re trying to get out as many barrels they can but with safety as their number one priority.”

Satellite imagery from Planet Labs from June 11, a few days before the first Israeli attack, shows tankers, most of them very large crude carriers, each able to hold about 2 million barrels, anchored in the sheltered waters between Kharg Island and the Iranian mainland. Comparison with earlier images shows this to be well within the normal range for the number of ships anchored there.
In a second image, taken on June 17, four days after the first missiles hit Iran, all of the vessels have dispersed, leaving none at the anchorage sites near the island.

Israel-Iran: Despite the assassination of top brass, Tehran's military is still operational

Ali Alfoneh, a researcher at the Arab Gulf States Institute, said this series of targeted assassinations shows "deep infiltration by the Israeli intelligence services within Iran's defense apparatus, and reveals a failure of counterintelligence within Iran's security services."
"Preoccupied with domestic repression and preservation of the regime, Iranian intelligence services have failed to adapt to the intensification of external threats, ignoring precedents set by the collapse of Hezbollah, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh [the leader of Hamas, killed while on Iranian soil in July 2024], and the repeated killings of nuclear scientists. Systemic corruption and popular discontent have also facilitated the Israeli infiltration," he continued.
On an institutional level, Alfoneh said, the Revolutionary Guards operate "according to a quasi-collective leadership model, with a decentralized command structure – characteristics that reduce operational efficiency, but increase resilience in the face of elimination operations." Meanwhile, he said, "the Guards' standard operational procedures have remained unchanged: Despite the elimination of the aerospace force's command on the first day, Iran has continued its ballistic missile and drone strikes against Israel." According to Alfoneh, the difficulty for Iran lay not so much in the loss of high-ranking commanders as in "the robust and layered architecture of Israel's missile defense."

Israel-Iran conflict live: Israeli military issues evacuation warning to residents in Iranian industrial area

Trump to make decision on whether to attack Iran ‘within two weeks’, says White House

www.theguardian.com

Dozens of US military aircraft are no longer on the tarmac at a major US base in Qatar, satellite images show, Agence France-Presse reports.

It could be a move to shield them from potential Iranian air strikes, as Washington weighs whether to intervene in Iran’s conflict with Israel.

Between 5 and 19 June, nearly all of the aircraft visible at the Al Udeid base are no longer anywhere in plain sight, according to images published by Planet Labs PBC and analysed by AFP.

Nearly 40 military aircraft – including transport planes like the Hercules C-130 and reconnaissance aircraft – were parked on the tarmac on 5 June. In an image taken on 19 June, only three aircraft are visible.

Hezbollah chief says group will ‘act as we see fit’ in Iran-Israel war

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem says the terrorist group will “act as we see fit” in response to the ongoing war between its main backer, Iran, and Israel.

In a statement, Qassem says Hezbollah is “not neutral” in the conflict between the two regional superpowers, saying that the group would “act as we see fit in the face of this brutal Israeli-American aggression.”

 

[KarmaPolice]

If Iran got their hands on a nuclear weapon I don't think they'd bat an eyelash in using them against Israel. They've (the hardliners and zealots) have wanted the destruction of Israel since the 60's.

Thats fine in rhetoric, but logic says Israel has many more of them to deploy and more of Iran would be wiped off the map than Israel.
No good having power if everyone is dead.
Iran would argue they need them for defence after Israel attacked them. Otherwise Israel will just attack them anytime they like with relatively few repercussions.
You dont think Pakistan wouldnt mind seeing Israel gone too? Israel doesnt say boo to them.

I think any conversation about the logical reasons Iran wouldn't use their nukes is a non-starter, because the whole concern is that a bunch of religious zealots would not act logically, as they often don't.

The point that North Korea has nukes and hasn't done anything crazy is salient, but NK has not been in real direct conflict in a long time like the Middle East is constantly.

We are still talking about Iran here, right?

 

[beer 30]

Always interesting to hear everyone's opinions on serious topics like this. As I read, I can't help but question people's starting point in history. This current Israel attack isn't the starting point for these two nations. The context of the discussion should begin decades before. Many decades. It isn't a a very warm history between the two. All Israel needed was the nod from the United States they wouldn't be upset with them. Then all in. Imo

Agree. Whenever I can, I try to promote a podcast series that launched Martyr Made (Darell Cooper), Fear and Loathing in the New Jerusalem. It details the founding of the country of Israel in depth. It’s a serious deep dive that helps explain some of the national ethos we see today. So many of the young liberators of early Israel are the holders of power today. They have been at war almost perpetually, through attempted invasion by surrounding countries or their proxies or by their hand invaded the countries around them.

Did some in depth research over lunch on X after being sucked into a rabbit hole thread regarding the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. They are a GPS guided bomb weighing in at 30,000 lbs. The bomb itself is designed to penetrate about 200' or 61 meters. In 2015 it was reported that 20 bombs had been delivered by Boeing but obviously, no new data is out there. Assuming we've added to the stockpile lets say the number gets to 30 at around $3.5m each.

So the gov't ordered some 737 Max's?

You here all week?

Tip your waitress

 

[BassNBrew]

Always interesting to hear everyone's opinions on serious topics like this. As I read, I can't help but question people's starting point in history. This current Israel attack isn't the starting point for these two nations. The context of the discussion should begin decades before. Many decades. It isn't a a very warm history between the two. All Israel needed was the nod from the United States they wouldn't be upset with them. Then all in. Imo

Agree. Whenever I can, I try to promote a podcast series that launched Martyr Made (Darell Cooper), Fear and Loathing in the New Jerusalem. It details the founding of the country of Israel in depth. It’s a serious deep dive that helps explain some of the national ethos we see today. So many of the young liberators of early Israel are the holders of power today. They have been at war almost perpetually, through attempted invasion by surrounding countries or their proxies or by their hand invaded the countries around them.

Did some in depth research over lunch on X after being sucked into a rabbit hole thread regarding the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. They are a GPS guided bomb weighing in at 30,000 lbs. The bomb itself is designed to penetrate about 200' or 61 meters. In 2015 it was reported that 20 bombs had been delivered by Boeing but obviously, no new data is out there. Assuming we've added to the stockpile lets say the number gets to 30 at around $3.5m each.

So the gov't ordered some 737 Max's?

You here all week?

Tip your waitress

I'm surprised that wasn't better received around here.

 

[FarFromHome]

Always interesting to hear everyone's opinions on serious topics like this. As I read, I can't help but question people's starting point in history. This current Israel attack isn't the starting point for these two nations. The context of the discussion should begin decades before. Many decades. It isn't a a very warm history between the two. All Israel needed was the nod from the United States they wouldn't be upset with them. Then all in. Imo

Agree. Whenever I can, I try to promote a podcast series that launched Martyr Made (Darell Cooper), Fear and Loathing in the New Jerusalem. It details the founding of the country of Israel in depth. It’s a serious deep dive that helps explain some of the national ethos we see today. So many of the young liberators of early Israel are the holders of power today. They have been at war almost perpetually, through attempted invasion by surrounding countries or their proxies or by their hand invaded the countries around them.

Did some in depth research over lunch on X after being sucked into a rabbit hole thread regarding the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. They are a GPS guided bomb weighing in at 30,000 lbs. The bomb itself is designed to penetrate about 200' or 61 meters. In 2015 it was reported that 20 bombs had been delivered by Boeing but obviously, no new data is out there. Assuming we've added to the stockpile lets say the number gets to 30 at around $3.5m each.

So the gov't ordered some 737 Max's?

You here all week?

Tip your waitress

I'm surprised that wasn't better received around here.

It doesn't hit as hard when I have to Google it. I couldn't remember which Boeing plane had the issues. Ha ha

 

[BassNBrew]

Always interesting to hear everyone's opinions on serious topics like this. As I read, I can't help but question people's starting point in history. This current Israel attack isn't the starting point for these two nations. The context of the discussion should begin decades before. Many decades. It isn't a a very warm history between the two. All Israel needed was the nod from the United States they wouldn't be upset with them. Then all in. Imo

Agree. Whenever I can, I try to promote a podcast series that launched Martyr Made (Darell Cooper), Fear and Loathing in the New Jerusalem. It details the founding of the country of Israel in depth. It’s a serious deep dive that helps explain some of the national ethos we see today. So many of the young liberators of early Israel are the holders of power today. They have been at war almost perpetually, through attempted invasion by surrounding countries or their proxies or by their hand invaded the countries around them.

Did some in depth research over lunch on X after being sucked into a rabbit hole thread regarding the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. They are a GPS guided bomb weighing in at 30,000 lbs. The bomb itself is designed to penetrate about 200' or 61 meters. In 2015 it was reported that 20 bombs had been delivered by Boeing but obviously, no new data is out there. Assuming we've added to the stockpile lets say the number gets to 30 at around $3.5m each.

So the gov't ordered some 737 Max's?

You here all week?

Tip your waitress

I'm surprised that wasn't better received around here.

It doesn't hit as hard when I have to Google it. I couldn't remember which Boeing plane had the issues. Ha ha

I think I had 3-4 to chose from.

Hey Supreme Leader, better make a deal and end your nuclear program or we'll fly Boeing planes over Tehran 7x24.

 

[fatness]

The US's decision whether to actively enter the war or not has been placed in the "Two Weeks" bin.
Whether this is a negotiating tactic or just indecision by our government in what to do, I don't care. It's 2 more weeks we're not actively involved.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/19/politics/trump-iran-negotiations-pessimism

President Donald Trump’s decision to open a two-week negotiating window before deciding on striking Iran sets off an urgent effort to restart talks that had been deadlocked when Israel began its bombing campaign last week. The hope among Trump and his advisers is that Iran — under constant Israeli attack and having suffered losses to its missile arsenal — will relent on its hardline position and agree to terms it had previously rejected, including abandoning its enrichment of uranium, according to US officials.

 

[fatness]

The US's decision whether to actively enter the war or not has been placed in the "Two Weeks" bin.
Whether this is a negotiating tactic or just indecision by our government in what to do, I don't care.

Part of the delay may be uncertainty or disagreement about US intelligence reports.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/us/politics/iran-nuclear-weapons-assessment.html

U.S. intelligence agencies continue to believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to make a nuclear bomb even though it has developed a large stockpile of the enriched uranium necessary for it to do so, according to intelligence and other American officials. That assessment has not changed since the intelligence agencies last addressed the question of Iran’s intentions in March, the officials said, even as Israel has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Senior U.S. intelligence officials said that Iranian leaders were likely to shift toward producing a bomb if the American military attacked the Iranian uranium enrichment site Fordo or if Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader.

Every time I read "Fordo" I see "Frodo".

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

Israel has no interest in peace

eh.....this is just a personal opinion right? Mine is quite the opposite. I think Israel just sees Iran as a threat.

The people in their government are not shy about expressing their opinions.

So Israel has said they don't want peace?

You brought up a documentary elsewhere, which reminded me of this article I saw on substack for starters.

Benjamin Netanyahu's Manipulation Exposed In New Documentary.

A New Documentary Exposes Benjamin Netanyahu's Manipulation

the307.substack.com

There are links in there, so you can peek at some of their sources. Yes, I think Bibi is a bad dude with bad intentions. I have seen some bonkers statements and interviews with people in his cabinet as well. I think they would say they want peace, but their idea of that is clearing a path around them and taking out whoever is there and removing them one way or the other. Which I guess is their right to do that, but I just which our money wasn't going to supply that. We bring up proxys, and Isreal is basically our proxy since we give them the ability to do all these things. I think participating in this and going into Iran is one of the worst ideas we've had as a country in quite some time. We are nowhere near as strong or unified as we were when we started the other wars after 9/11. IMO this will have some dire consequences for our country.

Some of the early reviews on IMDB said it was very bias (the doc) but then a bunch of very positive reviews so it's prob a mixed bag but I'll check it out. I guess my general stance is that Israel has a right to exist and defend itself.

Timeline of tensions and hostilities between Israel and Iran

Israel and Iran have opened a new chapter in their long history of conflict. Israel launched a major attack with strikes early Friday that set off explosions in the Iranian capital of Tehran.

apnews.com

August 2002 — Western intelligence services and an Iranian opposition group reveal Iran’s secret Natanz nuclear enrichment facility

February 2006 — Iran announces it will restart uranium enrichment following the election of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Britain, France and Germany walk out of stalled negotiations.

2018 — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel obtained tens of thousands of pages of data showing Iran covered up its nuclear program before signing a deal with world powers in 2015. An ex-Mossad chief confirms the information was obtained by more than a dozen non-Israeli agents from safes in Tehran in 2018. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdraws from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers.

That's at least 2 times Iran has reneged on nuclear deals. Why would anyone trust them? They (Iran) are determined to build a bomb.

April 16, 2021 — Iran begins enriching uranium up to 60%, its highest purity ever and a technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

I googled how much uranium do you need for a nuclear power plant and I got

Nuclear Power Generation: For most nuclear power reactors, the uranium fuel needs to have a higher concentration of U-235 (typically 3% to 5%) than what is found in nature. This level of enrichment allows for a controlled chain reaction that generates heat, which is then used to produce electricity

Unless I'm mistaken (which I could be) they are clearly trying to get a bomb.

List of modern conflicts in the Middle East - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

maybe wikipedia isn't the best source but I assume that it's mostly accurate. Not counting the 2006 Lebanon War (Bibi wasn't PM) there haven't been any new wars since 2023 and that's not something that Israel started. I know there have been minor engagements but those have all been against Iran proxy states that continually attack Israel and pose a threat to it, even if it was always minor.

I do agree with you that a war in the mid east isn't ideal and hopefully we can broker a peace deal. I think @djmich is right too but it just feels like it might be a bad idea to let religious zealots have a nuclear bomb.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb

U.S. intelligence agencies continue to believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to make a nuclear bomb even though it has developed a large stockpile of the enriched uranium necessary for it to do so, according to intelligence and other American officials.
That assessment has not changed since the intelligence agencies last addressed the question of Iran’s intentions in March, the officials said, even as Israel has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.
Senior U.S. intelligence officials said that Iranian leaders were likely to shift toward producing a bomb if the American military attacked the Iranian uranium enrichment site Fordo or if Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader.

Some American officials said those new assessments echoed material provided by Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, which believes that Iran can achieve a nuclear weapon in 15 days.
While some American officials find the Israeli estimate credible, others emphasized that the U.S. intelligence assessment remained unchanged, and American spy agencies believe that it could take several months, and up to a year, for Iran to make a weapon.
Intelligence assessments are often drafted in a way that allows policymakers to draw different conclusions. And many intelligence officials believe that the reason Iran has accumulated such a large arsenal of uranium is to have the ability to move toward making a bomb quickly.

None of the new assessments on the timeline to get a bomb are based on newly collected intelligence, according to multiple officials.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a religious ruling, or fatwa, in 2003 that has prevented the country from developing nuclear weapons. That is “right now holding,” a senior intelligence official said, adding that the Israeli assessment that Iran was 15 days away was alarmist.

Iran’s stockpile is enriched to 60 percent. To make a bomb, it would need to be enriched further, to 90 percent. Enriching uranium means reducing the percentage of naturally occurring uranium, U-238, and increasing the percentage of a lighter isotope, U-235, that can sustain a nuclear reaction.
But producing a weapon requires more than uranium. Iran would also have to make a bomb, and potentially miniaturize it to place on a warhead. While the United States and Israel believe that Iran has the expertise to build a bomb, there is no intelligence that it has set out to do that.
U.S. intelligence believes that Iran could potentially shorten the timeline if it pursued a cruder weapon that might not be able to be miniaturized and put on a missile. Such a cruder weapon might be more akin to the bomb that the United States dropped on Hiroshima, which was nearly 10,000 pounds and 10 feet long and had to be dropped from a plane, rather than delivered on a missile.

https://x.com/TalaRamadan/status/1935997284954612074

JERUSALEM, June 20 (Reuters) - An Iranian nuclear scientist was killed in a strike on a building in Tehran on Friday, state Israeli broadcaster Kan and other local media reported.

The Israeli military did not immediately comment on the reports.

https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1935927411373150436

One ballistic missile was launched by Iran in this morning's attack on Beersheba, according to a military official.

The missile was not intercepted, and struck just outside several apartment blocks, causing damage and lightly injuring five people.

https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1935964933574779064

S. #Syria: impressive video showing an Iranian suicide drone (Shahed-136) blown up this morning by an Israeli F-16 over #Daraa province (Jordanian border).

What are the nuclear contamination risks from Israel's attacks on Iran?

Peter Bryant, a professor at the University of Liverpool in England who specialises in radiation protection science and nuclear energy policy, said he is not too concerned about fallout risks from the strikes so far.
He noted that the Arak site was not operational while the Natanz facility was underground and no release of radiation was reported. "The issue is controlling what has happened inside that facility, but nuclear facilities are designed for that," he said. "Uranium is only dangerous if it gets physically inhaled or ingested or gets into the body at low enrichments," he said.
Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow at London think tank RUSI, said attacks on facilities at the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle - the stages where uranium is prepared for use in a reactor - pose primarily chemical, not radiological risks.
At enrichment facilities, UF6, or uranium hexafluoride, is the concern. "When UF6 interacts with water vapour in the air, it produces harmful chemicals," she said.
The extent to which any material is dispersed would depend on factors including the weather, she added. "In low winds, much of the material can be expected to settle in the vicinity of the facility; in high winds, the material will travel farther, but is also likely to disperse more widely."
The risk of dispersal is lower for underground facilities.
Simon Bennett, who leads the civil safety and security unit at the University of Leicester in the UK, said risks to the environment were minimal if Israel hits subterranean facilities because you are "burying nuclear material in possibly thousands of tonnes of concrete, earth and rock".

The major concern would be a strike on Iran's nuclear reactor at Bushehr.
Richard Wakeford, Honorary Professor of Epidemiology at the University of Manchester, said that while contamination from attacks on enrichment facilities would be "mainly a chemical problem" for the surrounding areas, extensive damage to large power reactors "is a different story".
Radioactive elements would be released either through a plume of volatile materials or into the sea, he added.
James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said an attack on Bushehr "could cause an absolute radiological catastrophe", but that attacks on enrichment facilities were "unlikely to cause significant off-site consequences".
Before uranium goes into a nuclear reactor it is barely radioactive, he said. "The chemical form uranium hexafluoride is toxic ... but it actually doesn't tend to travel large distances and it's barely radioactive. So far the radiological consequences of Israel's attacks have been virtually nil," he added, while stating his opposition to Israel's campaign.
Bennett of the University of Leicester said it would be "foolhardy for the Israelis to attack" Bushehr because they could pierce the reactor, which would mean releasing radioactive material into the atmosphere.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Poised for More Power

“The balance of power within Iran in the aftermath of this will shift in the direction of the military, in the direction of the Guard,” said Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert and senior fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations. “Those in charge will be the men with guns. And they will try to bring back some sort of clerical leadership because, after all, this is an Islamic Republic.”

Since its formation in 1979, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, has been the most powerful branch of Iran’s armed forces and is separate from—and more powerful than—the national army. It has its own ground forces, navy, air force, intelligence and special forces, totaling roughly 125,000 personnel. It is also deeply embedded in Iran’s economic system, political affairs and social fabric.

The Islamic Republic isn’t a one-man rule but a constellation of power centers coalescing under the supreme leader’s authority. In a fragmented country, the Revolutionary Guard has over time emerged as the single-most powerful actor, partly due to an expansive economic empire.

The Guard dominates all major infrastructure sectors, including oil and gas, construction and telecommunications. It trades in consumer goods and benefits from parastatal charities operating hundreds of subsidiaries in everything from agriculture to tourism.

“Millions of people depend on the economic empire of the Revolutionary Guard,” said Ali Alfoneh, an expert on the IRGC at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, D.C., and author of a book about the Guard.

In a sense, he said, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is similar to the military in Egypt, which has dominated the state since 1952, or in Pakistan, where the armed forces have exerted control since 1947, including through three major coups.

“IRGC as an organization is capable of fighting a civil war, and prevailing in a civil war, against an opposition [potentially] financed and armed by Israel and the U.S.,” he said.

While personalities matter in the Revolutionary Guard—its commanders advise the supreme leader—its leadership is mostly collective and to an extent informal, consisting of current and retired officers from different factions. Despite the recent deaths of senior commanders, the IRGC has remained cohesive enough to launch daily barrages of retaliatory missiles against Israel.

To build allegiance, the IRGC formed local community networks, primarily through the Basij, a paramilitary group best known in the West for violently oppressing demonstrations, but which also engages in political and social activities.

The Basij engages with Iranians across the country, from kindergarten to adulthood. It offers religious and ideological teachings and after-school activities. It sponsors sporting events like weightlifting, wrestling and taekwondo. Members can buy groceries at a discount.

“The main reason the Basij has been able to attract people in the past is that it gives poor kids a thing to do,” said Afshon Ostovar, associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., and author of a book on the IRGC. “At its lowest ranks it’s the Cub Scouts. You do arts and crafts, and sing songs. It’s a patriotic sort of movement,” he said. “But once you get to high-school ranks, they start to take from the Basij people who can be useful in security work.”

If the IRGC were forced to consolidate a new rule, the Basij would be crucial in maintaining internal security, Ostovar said.

Wholesale regime change that dislodges the Revolutionary Guard completely wouldn’t just bring about political change, but also tear apart the social fabric in parts of Iranian society. Yet, as is often the case in regime changes, many economic structures and enterprises would likely survive, including those of the IRGC, said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder and CEO of the Bourse and Bazaar Foundation, an economic think tank.
“The individuals and networks who make up the IRGC are embedded in state institutions and in economic entities, commercial entities, to an extent where I think there would remain a lot of continuity, even if there were a big political transition,” Batmanghelidj said. “And that’s something I rarely see people grappling with.”

Israel’s War on Iran Is Costing Hundreds of Millions of Dollars a Day

The David’s Sling system, developed jointly by Israel and the U.S., can shoot down short-to-long range missiles, drones and aircraft. It costs around $700,000 each time it is activated, assuming it uses two interceptors, normally the minimum launched, according to Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies.

Arrow 3, another system being used, shields against long-range ballistic missiles that leave the earth’s atmosphere, at a cost of around $4 million per interception, Kalisky said. An older version of the Arrow, known as Arrow 2, costs around $3 million per interceptor.

Other military expenditures include the cost of keeping dozens of warplanes, such as F-35 jet fighters, in the air for hours at a time some 1,000 miles away from Israeli territory. Each costs around $10,000 per hour of flight time, according to Kalisky. The cost of refueling jets, and ammunition including bombs such as JDAMs and MK84s, also must be factored in.

“Per day it is much more expensive than the war in Gaza or with Hezbollah. And it all comes from the ammunition. That’s the big expense,” said Zvi Eckstein, who heads the Aaron Institute for Economic Policy at Reichman University in Israel, referring to both defensive and offensive munitions.

According to an estimate by the institute, a war with Iran that lasts one month will amount to around $12 billion.

Fighter jets destroyed 35 missile launchers, storage sites in Iran this morning, IDF says

A wave of Israeli Air Force strikes this morning destroyed some 35 missile launchers and storage sites in Iran’s Tabriz and Kermanshah, the military says.

The IDF says 25 fighter jets were involved in the strikes, during which “more than 35 infrastructure sites for the storage and launching of missiles” were hit.

Why information out of Iran is sparse

Communication for Iranians has become patchy and increasingly difficult as the country suffers from a near-total internet blackout and cyberattacks from pro-Israeli groups that have hit Iran's financial infrastructure.

"Iran has now been disconnected from the global internet for 36 hours," Netblocks, an internet access monitoring website, said today. "Live metrics show national connectivity remains in the low few percent of ordinary levels," it said.

Only a handful of users can connect to the internet, it said, and that too with a complicated VPN set up.

Iran also imposes strict regulations on journalists working there, who often operate in fear of reprisal. While broadcasting is allowed in Iran, it is controlled by the state.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Israel has no interest in peace

eh.....this is just a personal opinion right? Mine is quite the opposite. I think Israel just sees Iran as a threat.

The people in their government are not shy about expressing their opinions.

So Israel has said they don't want peace?

You brought up a documentary elsewhere, which reminded me of this article I saw on substack for starters.

Benjamin Netanyahu's Manipulation Exposed In New Documentary.

A New Documentary Exposes Benjamin Netanyahu's Manipulation

the307.substack.com

There are links in there, so you can peek at some of their sources. Yes, I think Bibi is a bad dude with bad intentions. I have seen some bonkers statements and interviews with people in his cabinet as well. I think they would say they want peace, but their idea of that is clearing a path around them and taking out whoever is there and removing them one way or the other. Which I guess is their right to do that, but I just which our money wasn't going to supply that. We bring up proxys, and Isreal is basically our proxy since we give them the ability to do all these things. I think participating in this and going into Iran is one of the worst ideas we've had as a country in quite some time. We are nowhere near as strong or unified as we were when we started the other wars after 9/11. IMO this will have some dire consequences for our country.

Some of the early reviews on IMDB said it was very bias (the doc) but then a bunch of very positive reviews so it's prob a mixed bag but I'll check it out. I guess my general stance is that Israel has a right to exist and defend itself.

Timeline of tensions and hostilities between Israel and Iran

Israel and Iran have opened a new chapter in their long history of conflict. Israel launched a major attack with strikes early Friday that set off explosions in the Iranian capital of Tehran.

apnews.com

August 2002 — Western intelligence services and an Iranian opposition group reveal Iran’s secret Natanz nuclear enrichment facility

February 2006 — Iran announces it will restart uranium enrichment following the election of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Britain, France and Germany walk out of stalled negotiations.

2018 — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel obtained tens of thousands of pages of data showing Iran covered up its nuclear program before signing a deal with world powers in 2015. An ex-Mossad chief confirms the information was obtained by more than a dozen non-Israeli agents from safes in Tehran in 2018. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdraws from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers.

That's at least 2 times Iran has reneged on nuclear deals. Why would anyone trust them? They (Iran) are determined to build a bomb.

April 16, 2021 — Iran begins enriching uranium up to 60%, its highest purity ever and a technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

I googled how much uranium do you need for a nuclear power plant and I got

Nuclear Power Generation: For most nuclear power reactors, the uranium fuel needs to have a higher concentration of U-235 (typically 3% to 5%) than what is found in nature. This level of enrichment allows for a controlled chain reaction that generates heat, which is then used to produce electricity

Unless I'm mistaken (which I could be) they are clearly trying to get a bomb.

List of modern conflicts in the Middle East - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

maybe wikipedia isn't the best source but I assume that it's mostly accurate. Not counting the 2006 Lebanon War (Bibi wasn't PM) there haven't been any new wars since 2023 and that's not something that Israel started. I know there have been minor engagements but those have all been against Iran proxy states that continually attack Israel and pose a threat to it, even if it was always minor.

I do agree with you that a war in the mid east isn't ideal and hopefully we can broker a peace deal. I think @djmich is right too but it just feels like it might be a bad idea to let religious zealots have a nuclear bomb.

I would guess any political doc like that will have the mixed reviews, it's bound to happen. Either way, at the very least can we agree that there is probably some bad intentions and acting in bad faith on both sides of this Isreal/Iran equation? I mostly linked that because even the article has links to some articles on certain spots so people could form an opinion if they wanted to go farther or not.

As far as the bolded, I would encourage you or others to look into what people in all 3 governments involved with this believe, religion wise, and how it would be directing their actions in this situation.

 

[Godsbrother]

IMO the nuke issue is cover (but a real secondary benefit) for the true Israeli objective of crippling the impact of terrorism on their country. After 10/7 they set out to end it. Started with Hamas in Gaza and ends with cutting off the funding in Iran. If I was them, this is what I'd want to do. In a perfect world, they're successful and the Iranian people also get out from under the rule of an authoritarian religious regime. A win-win? I hope that happens, as we have seen previously there's a good chance it doesn't.

IMO this is an excuse for perpetual war. You can't bomb away terrorism and people who hate us. In fact I would argue that how we have collectively handled our business over the last couple years is leading to a world where more and more people hate Israel and the US. Somebody will step up and fund another group to start the process again.

I dont totally disagree.....but what DOES stop the Muslim countries in the middle east from hating Israel?

The Israelis could pack up and vacate Jerusalem tomorrow and the people who hate them would still hate them and take every opportunity to try and harm them.

I dont see how this ever ends.

Neither do I.

I am generally an optimist and think most people are good but the blind hatred that certain countries and peoples have for one another is sickening and beyond stupid.

We are all on Earth for a just a wink of time and we have people that know nothing but misery and for what? Squabbling over religion, race, or the domain over a fragment of a tiny planet.

Not sure what God is up to but it seems like it might be a good time to put humans in end of support and come out with a new improved version.

 

[KarmaPolice]

IMO the nuke issue is cover (but a real secondary benefit) for the true Israeli objective of crippling the impact of terrorism on their country. After 10/7 they set out to end it. Started with Hamas in Gaza and ends with cutting off the funding in Iran. If I was them, this is what I'd want to do. In a perfect world, they're successful and the Iranian people also get out from under the rule of an authoritarian religious regime. A win-win? I hope that happens, as we have seen previously there's a good chance it doesn't.

IMO this is an excuse for perpetual war. You can't bomb away terrorism and people who hate us. In fact I would argue that how we have collectively handled our business over the last couple years is leading to a world where more and more people hate Israel and the US. Somebody will step up and fund another group to start the process again.

I dont totally disagree.....but what DOES stop the Muslim countries in the middle east from hating Israel?

The Israelis could pack up and vacate Jerusalem tomorrow and the people who hate them would still hate them and take every opportunity to try and harm them.

I dont see how this ever ends.

Neither do I.

I am generally an optimist and think most people are good but the blind hatred that certain countries and peoples have for one another is sickening and beyond stupid.

We are all on Earth for a just a wink of time and we have people that know nothing but misery and for what? Squabbling over religion, race, or the domain over a fragment of a tiny planet.

Not sure what God is up to but it seems like it might be a good time to put humans in end of support and come out with a new improved version.

Next time you see your brother, bring it up.

 

[guru_007]

Israel has no interest in peace

eh.....this is just a personal opinion right? Mine is quite the opposite. I think Israel just sees Iran as a threat.

The people in their government are not shy about expressing their opinions.

So Israel has said they don't want peace?

That depends on your definition of peace.
I'm hesitant to even post in this thread because of the political police and the need to show your source justices.
However, this morning on CNBC, the finance minister from Israel flat out said this war would go on until the current regime in Iran was overthrown and that Hamas was completely eliminated from the planet and that the 56 hostage still being held in tunnels were all returned to Israel.
His words were quite a bit stronger than I'm paraphrasing here, but take that for how you want to define peace.

He also went on to say that when the Russian/Ukraine war started that 4 million Ukrainian's fled the country to avoid the conflict. But since the start of the Iranian attack, more than 100,000 Jews have returned to Israel to support the effort.

Peace by victory, maybe?

Either way, it's a very volatile situation out there, with a lot of passion on both sides. I am rooting for peace.

 

[BassNBrew]

Did some in depth research over lunch on X after being sucked into a rabbit hole thread regarding the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. They are a GPS guided bomb weighing in at 30,000 lbs. The bomb itself is designed to penetrate about 200' or 61 meters. In 2015 it was reported that 20 bombs had been delivered by Boeing but obviously, no new data is out there. Assuming we've added to the stockpile lets say the number gets to 30 at around $3.5m each.

The Fordow facility is estimated to be buried about 300' (91 meters) below the surface so it would take multiples of these to maybe breach the facility assuming you get them to drop where you want. As @Chadstroma mentioned upthread, only the B-2 bomber is equipped to deliver these bombs. Interesting stuff.

My question is how many would it take to get the results we want?. It would be an even bigger disaster to go down this road and not completely destroy the target.

ha....my question reading GM's post is "really? Boeing? Do we really trust Boeing to be capable of making something like this reliable?"

Heavy things that fall out of the sky that cause death and destruction, who would be more qualified?

 

[Jayrod]

Did some in depth research over lunch on X after being sucked into a rabbit hole thread regarding the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs. They are a GPS guided bomb weighing in at 30,000 lbs. The bomb itself is designed to penetrate about 200' or 61 meters. In 2015 it was reported that 20 bombs had been delivered by Boeing but obviously, no new data is out there. Assuming we've added to the stockpile lets say the number gets to 30 at around $3.5m each.

The Fordow facility is estimated to be buried about 300' (91 meters) below the surface so it would take multiples of these to maybe breach the facility assuming you get them to drop where you want. As @Chadstroma mentioned upthread, only the B-2 bomber is equipped to deliver these bombs. Interesting stuff.

My question is how many would it take to get the results we want?. It would be an even bigger disaster to go down this road and not completely destroy the target.

ha....my question reading GM's post is "really? Boeing? Do we really trust Boeing to be capable of making something like this reliable?"

Heavy things that fall out of the sky that cause death and destruction, who would be more qualified?

I find this morbid.....but funny.

 

[Chadstroma]

5.1-magnitude quake rattles northern Iran amid Israel war

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Israel carries out strikes in Tehran as defense minister sends warning to Iranian proxy

The IDF said it carried out 'a series of overnight strikes' in Tehran, hitting military industrial sites. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Iran-backed terror organization Hezbollah against joining the conflict.

www.foxnews.com

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

I am no fan of the Israeli regime.
Their starving of old ladies and little kids, bombing hospitals cause “might be a terrorist there” and general poor treatment of anyone not Jewish is appalling.
However, credit where credit is due. They have played this strategically brilliantly.
They have attacked usually directly, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Huthis.
Syrian regime has fallen.
Iraq and Afhganistan do not have the appetite for war after their own issues this century.

All would be staunch allies of Iran and a support network for the Iranian regime should it come to blows.
By them ALL being crippled, one way or another, in advance of taking on the big guy has Iran in a no win position. The big fish allies in China and Russia arent going to intervene so Iran is either going to go down meekly or swinging.
The sunny/shi’te divide has Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey perched in a fantastic position to dominate the region once Iran is taken down.

The Shia’s only hold 10-13% of the muslim world and only in Iran, Iraq and Azerbaijan are they dominant. 15% in Pakistan, 20% in Turkey and Saudi Arabia has them in the distinct minority

Iran has a wonderful people and would be an asset to the world in the right hands.
Not sure where it is going to be after this conflict. If history is any guide, in the hands of more lunatics.

 

[Chadstroma]

I am no fan of the Israeli regime.
Their starving of old ladies and little kids, bombing hospitals cause “might be a terrorist there” and general poor treatment of anyone not Jewish is appalling.
However, credit where credit is due. They have played this strategically brilliantly.
They have attacked usually directly, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Huthis.
Syrian regime has fallen.
Iraq and Afhganistan do not have the appetite for war after their own issues this century.

All would be staunch allies of Iran and a support network for the Iranian regime should it come to blows.
By them ALL being crippled, one way or another, in advance of taking on the big guy has Iran in a no win position. The big fish allies in China and Russia arent going to intervene so Iran is either going to go down meekly or swinging.
The sunny/shi’te divide has Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey perched in a fantastic position to dominate the region once Iran is taken down.

The Shia’s only hold 10-13% of the muslim world and only in Iran, Iraq and Azerbaijan are they dominant. 15% in Pakistan, 20% in Turkey and Saudi Arabia has them in the distinct minority

Iran has a wonderful people and would be an asset to the world in the right hands.
Not sure where it is going to be after this conflict. If history is any guide, in the hands of more lunatics.

Yes, the world is in Israel's debt. They dismantled two terror organizations to impotence wiping out most of their leadership and erasing many of their fighters from the book of the living. Set the stage for the Assad regime to fall and is now preventing a nuclear Iran.

Yevarech Elohim et Yisrael

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Sheltering in a Bunker, Iran’s Supreme Leader Names Potential Successors

Wary of assassination, Iran’s supreme leader mostly speaks with his commanders through a trusted aide now, suspending electronic communications to make it harder to find him, three Iranian officials familiar with his emergency war plans say.

Ensconced in a bunker, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has picked an array of replacements down his chain of miliary command in case more of his valued lieutenants are killed.

And in a remarkable move, the officials add, Ayatollah Khamenei has even named three senior clerics as candidates to succeed him should he be killed, as well — perhaps the most telling illustration of the precarious moment he and his three-decade rule are facing.

Ayatollah Khamenei has taken an extraordinary series of steps to preserve the Islamic Republic ever since Israel launched a series of surprise attacks last Friday.

Peering inside Iran’s closely guarded leadership can be difficult, but its chain of command still seems to be functioning, despite being hit hard, and there are no obvious signs of dissent in the political ranks, according to the officials and to diplomats in Iran.

Normally, the process of appointing a new supreme leader could take months, with clerics picking and choosing from their own lists of names. But with the nation now at war, the officials said, the ayatollah wants to ensure a quick, orderly transition and to preserve his legacy.

“The top priority is the preservation of the state,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert and professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins University. “It is all calculative and pragmatic.”

Succession has long been an exceedingly delicate and thorny topic, seldom discussed publicly beyond speculations and rumors in political and religious circles. The supreme leader has enormous powers: He is the commander in chief of the Iran Armed Forces, as well as the head of the judiciary, the legislature and the executive branch. He is also a Vali Faqih, meaning the most senior guardian of the Shiite faith.

Ayatollah Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, also a cleric and close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, who was rumored to be a front-runner, is not among the candidates, the officials said. Iran’s former conservative president, Ibrahim Raisi, was also considered a front-runner before he was killed in a helicopter crash in 2024.

The fear of assassination and infiltration within Iran’s ranks is so widespread that the Ministry of Intelligence announced a series of security protocols, telling officials to stop using cellphones or any electronic devices to communicate. It has also ordered all senior government officials and military commanders to remain below ground, according to two Iranian officials.
Almost every day, the Ministry of Intelligence or the Armed Forces issue directives for the public to report suspicious individuals and vehicle movements, and to refrain from taking photographs and videos of attacks on sensitive sites.

https://x.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1936091092945952932

Week into the war: Israel sees no instability in Iran's Islamic regime's control despite IDF operations, 3 official tell the @Jerusalem_Post

Iran says no to nuclear talks during conflict as UN urges restraint

A senior Iranian official told Reuters Iran was ready to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment but that any proposal for zero enrichment - not being able to enrich uranium at all - would be rejected, "especially now under Israel's strikes".

Israeli commando raid of Fordow is an option:

One option includes sending elite Israeli Air Force commandos from Unit 5101, known as Shaldag, which, in Hebrew, means kingfisher, a bird known to be patient and dive deep under water to find its prey.

In September, members of this elite unit surprised the world by entering an underground missile factory used by Iran in Syria.

"There was a site that similarly looked like Fordow," former Israeli Military Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin told Fox News in an exclusive interview. "Even though smaller, the Syrian facility produced advanced ballistic missiles, precise ballistic missiles using Iranian technology, as well as Iranian money."

Israel attacked the site from the air a few times but was not able to destroy the site.

Unit 5101 (Shaldag) used the cover of darkness and diversionary airstrikes to enter the secret site, plant explosives and destroy the complex. Like Iran's Fordow mountain complex south of Tehran, it was 300 feet underground.

Iran media reports blasts in Isfahan, which houses key nuclear facility

Iranian media reports explosions in the city of Isfahan, where the Islamic Republic has a key nuclear facility.

Some more info here on damage to facilities:

Satellite images show atomic installations were only grazed after four days of bombardment. Damage to Iran’s central enrichment facility in Natanz, located 300 kilometers (186 miles) south of Tehran, is primarily limited to electricity switch yards and transformers, based on pictures from June 17. While those installations are critical, experts say they can be repaired within months.
“They did damage but left a lot intact,” said Robert Kelley, a former inspector at the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, who previously ran one of the US-government’s premier satellite imagery labs.

Far from being just static points on a map, Iran’s ambitions to make the fuel needed for nuclear power plants and weapons are embedded in a heavily fortified infrastructure nationwide. Thousands of scientists and engineers work at dozens of sites.
Moreover, the country’s near bomb-grade uranium stockpiles — which can be neatly tucked into as few as 16 small canisters — are a moving target. Uranium shifts back, forth and throughout its nuclear-fuel complex, challenging the IAEA’s ability to account for material that could be diverted for weapons.

Centrifuges — machines spinning at supersonic speeds to separate the isotopes needed for nuclear fuel — need a constant feed of electricity to prevent them from spinning out of control. An alleged 2021 Israeli act of sabotage at the site caused damage to some centrifuges, which the Iranians were able to repair within months.
“Any competent designer will have backup power, either batteries or generators,” said Kelley, a veteran of the US Department of Energy’s nuclear weapons complex. There’s little evidence to question the competence of Iranian engineers, and the primary electrical damage at Natanz could be fixed within months, according to Kelley.

Israel says it killed top Iran commander during attacks by both sides

Israel said on Saturday it had killed a veteran Iranian commander during attacks by both sides in the more than week-long air war, while Tehran said it would not negotiate over its nuclear programme while under threat.
Saeed Izadi, who led the Palestine Corps of the Quds Force, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' overseas arm, was killed in a strike on an apartment in the Iranian city of Qom, said Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

I am no fan of the Israeli regime.
Their starving of old ladies and little kids, bombing hospitals cause “might be a terrorist there” and general poor treatment of anyone not Jewish is appalling.
However, credit where credit is due. They have played this strategically brilliantly.
They have attacked usually directly, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Huthis.
Syrian regime has fallen.
Iraq and Afhganistan do not have the appetite for war after their own issues this century.

All would be staunch allies of Iran and a support network for the Iranian regime should it come to blows.
By them ALL being crippled, one way or another, in advance of taking on the big guy has Iran in a no win position. The big fish allies in China and Russia arent going to intervene so Iran is either going to go down meekly or swinging.
The sunny/shi’te divide has Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey perched in a fantastic position to dominate the region once Iran is taken down.

The Shia’s only hold 10-13% of the muslim world and only in Iran, Iraq and Azerbaijan are they dominant. 15% in Pakistan, 20% in Turkey and Saudi Arabia has them in the distinct minority

Iran has a wonderful people and would be an asset to the world in the right hands.
Not sure where it is going to be after this conflict. If history is any guide, in the hands of more lunatics.

This is the tough part in this. The aftermath. Whether Israel stops after taking out all nuclear/ballistic capability or after taking out Iran's entire leadership, how do you get it back to the culturally progressive Iran before the revolution? Without the monarch obvi.

My opinion is the best thing to do is take out both, which gives the people the best chance to rise up to whatever level they want. The end of this cannot have the current leadership in power. Now whether they go down the road of democracy or back to Islamic fundamentalism is impossible to tell. But they'd do it without the current leadership steering them only one direction, and that is killing all of us. They'd be doing it mostly without weaponization. Which goes well beyond their borders when it comes to terrorism.

Syria is like a mini version of this. I know it's not a pure comparison since they rose up from within. But they will find their own way, and it's been fairly quiet over there. Iran is simply a much bigger mountain to move and the people are seemingly less antagonistic towards their govt.

We have actually played this pretty well also. We've let Israel do their thing. As we've seen for 50+ years, when Israel is in go mode the Arab world really doesn't have an answer. They run ops so well. I frankly would not stop them until Iranian leadership and weaponization is gone.

IMO

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/AnshelPfeffer/status/1936290520914899441

Excellent tracker on @haaretzcom (in Hebrew for now) of Iran’s missile launches & their hits on Israel. 2 important conclusions: of 460 missiles launched in 8 days only 24 hit their targets. We don’t have yet a breakdown of missiles intercepted/misfired >

So out of all the missiles Iran fired, only 6% hit. Without knowing how many misfired we can’t say that’s a 94% interception rate (IDF keep saying “around 90%”) but for now the missile defenses seem to be holding up well. Let’s look now at the Iranian rate of fire >
Here’s a breakdown of Iranian missiles launched over 8 days in 48-hour periods (number of salvoes):
Q1 220 (6)
Q2 108 (5)
Q3 55 (10)
Q4 75 (5)
This fits what I’ve been hearing from Israeli officials that Israeli strikes have had a big impact but that the Iranians have regrouped >
Here’s a breakdown of the Iranian missiles hit-rate over 8 days in 48-hours periods
Q1 5/220
Q2 8/108
Q3 3/55
Q4 8/75
Hit-rate has gone up. Not sure enough data to suggest a trend but could point to Iranians improving their coordination and/or Israel economizing on interceptors >
No figures here on accuracy of missile hits. So I’ll add a few details 1. the 24 hits are all on built-up areas. IDF counts missiles that fell in unpopulated areas as misses 2. By my count, 3 missiles had direct hits on specific targets (Refinery, hospital, Weizmann Institute) >
7-8 missiles hit very near “strategic” targets (IDF HQs/infrastructure). Half hit seemingly random built-up civilian areas. IDF analysts surprised at accuracy of some of hits but since just 6% got through and we don’t know for sure their intended targets hard to reach conclusions
Just to clarify for those not reading to the end of the thread. A “hit” is a missile that got through the defenses and hit a built-up area in Israel (it may well have missed its intended target) and the 94% that didn’t hit were not all intercepted. Some misfired or hit the desert

Guarded by a unit no one knew existed, Khamenei lives in fear

Iran’s supreme leader has been moved to a highly secure location where he is under the protection of a top-secret elite unit, The Telegraph has learned.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled Iran since 1989, has entrusted his survival to a previously unknown group of deeply vetted bodyguards, amid increasingly overt threats from Israel on his life, according to officials in Tehran.
Believing Israeli intelligence has comprehensively penetrated the regime, the unit was kept so secret that even senior officials within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were unaware of its existence.
“He’s not hiding from death, he’s not in a bunker,” said one Iranian official. “But his life is in danger, and there is a unit responsible for his protection that no one even knew existed to avoid any chance of infiltration.”

No single killing is said to have shaken Khamenei more than that of Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, who died last year when Israel dropped “bunker-buster” bombs on his subterranean headquarters beneath a Beirut tower block.
Khamenei was reportedly perturbed not just by the loss of a trusted ally and friend, but also by the suspected source of Israel’s intelligence — it is believed the information in Nasrallah’s whereabouts came not from within Hezbollah but from Tehran itself. Given the extreme sensitivity of such details, the leak must have come from someone with direct access to top-level information.

Israel has almost certainly spent years gathering information on Khamenei’s movements, using a blend of human, operational and artificial intelligence.
Mossad is likely to have attempted to embed agents within his inner circle by recruiting disillusioned officials, resentful guards, or even low-level staff with access to his quarters.
Signal intelligence would also be crucial. While Khamenei himself avoids electronic devices, the same cannot be said for those around him. Intercepted phone calls, emails and encrypted traffic would all be monitored by Israeli analysts.
Artificial intelligence systems would then process that data to identify probable locations and track patterns in his movements.

Some B-2 movement......as always let's try to keep this focused on information and not politics: https://x.com/idreesali114/status/1936474778329628730

Officials tell Reuters the B-2 bombers are headed to Guam. W/@phildstewart
One official said no forward orders had been given yet to move the bombers beyond Guam, but things were fluid.

B-2 Bombers Head West Across Pacific Amidst Iran Crisis

Online flight tracking data, together with publicly available air traffic control audio, shows at least two separate flights of B-2 bombers using the call signs Mytee 11 and Mytee 21 departing Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri overnight, supported by a large force of aerial refueling tankers. Whiteman is the main operating base for the Air Force’s entire fleet of 19 B-2s. The stealth bombers headed west and subsequently linked up with additional tankers off the coast of California.

The fact that the B-2s refueled immediately after takeoff could point to them at least having MOPs onboard, as the weight of the weapons requires some fuel to be sacrificed for departure.

What Israel Found Before Striking Iran Now Prompts Arab States to Quietly Cheer on the War

If Israel holds the Iranian nuclear threat in check, that will be good news for the Europeans and certainly for the Sunni states in the Middle East. Senior officials in the neighboring countries are telling their Israeli counterparts, "just keep going" – exactly like in the wars against Hezbollah in 2006 and 2024.
These officials are expressing plenty of appreciation for Israel's operational and intelligence achievements, but also apprehension. They don't want Netanyahu to drag the region into another blood-drenched war of attrition without a rapid conclusion in the form of an agreement. A long war will also endanger the Gulf states' petroleum sites, certainly if Israel systematically attacks similar sites in Iran.

In the months before last Friday's attack on Iran, Israel gave the Americans intelligence on secret experiments by the Iranians, including the development of the so-called nuclear trigger. Israel also documented thorough and diversified technological research on the margins of the weapons program, something that Tehran shut down in 2003 under U.S. pressure.

A security source has told Haaretz that the Iranians made significant progress in recent months under cover of the negotiations with the Biden and Trump administrations, and notably in the transition in between.

And Israel discovered two more things. First, the bombing of the production line for ballistic missiles in October didn't stop the Iranians, who quickly returned to rapid production. By March 2026 they would have had 4,000 ballistic missiles, a number that was liable to double by 2028.
Second, Iran's plan to destroy Israel – based on huge arsenals of ballistic missiles and rockets, along with militias that would invade Israel across the borders à la Hamas on October 7 – was being consolidated, with people around the supreme leader starting to take it seriously. These developments, combined with progress in the nuclear program and the maturation of the plans by Israel's military and the Mossad (above all the ability to achieve full air superiority) helped tip the scales.

Reports: IDF attacked Iran's strategic port - and a military base near Tehran

In Iran, it was reported that an attack was carried out on the strategic port of Bandar Abbas in the southeast of the Islamic Republic. At the same time, there were reports of an attack on a military base south of Tehran. A source told the Saudi Al-Hadath TV that "Israel is trying to destroy the Iranian navy in order to prevent it from closing the Strait of Hormuz, and it has taken control of the airspace over Bandar Abbas."

 

[Jayrod]

Is the fear that we end up with another Iraq power-vacuum situation that trickles on for too long and isn't really much better than what was there before?

One thing, if Iran does have these more modern/progressive roots is some of that still around to step up and move the country forward or has it been beaten into full submission by the religious extremists?

I worked with a lady for a few months last year who had fled Iran, but she was a Kurd from the northwest region and not really a descendent of the core Iranian people. However, she was a young child in 1979 and watched the changes take place. She was educated and married but fled without her husband because she no longer felt safe and didn't want her son to grow up there. Literally left her family and everyone she knew and moved to the US with her son and had never been back for like 10 years. She went through the asylum process and became a US citizen.

One thing she mentioned a lot was how they forced the Kurds to speak Farsi and forbid Kurdish language literature anywhere, especially on signs. They also forbid them to teach their religious history which she described as being a sort of mystic combination of Judaism and Islam.

She had nothing good to say about the Iranian leadership and government, but she is gone now and a US citizen. Are there more like her that are still there? Probably, but whether they can band together, rally behind some leaders and form a government that can hold onto power is a really big if and something I don't have a lot of confidence in. They need an Ataturk type to come along if the current Ayatollah gets thrown aside somehow.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Is the fear that we end up with another Iraq power-vacuum situation that trickles on for too long and isn't really much better than what was there before?

One thing, if Iran does have these more modern/progressive roots is some of that still around to step up and move the country forward or has it been beaten into full submission by the religious extremists?

I worked with a lady for a few months last year who had fled Iran, but she was a Kurd from the northwest region and not really a descendent of the core Iranian people. However, she was a young child in 1979 and watched the changes take place. She was educated and married but fled without her husband because she no longer felt safe and didn't want her son to grow up there. Literally left her family and everyone she knew and moved to the US with her son and had never been back for like 10 years. She went through the asylum process and became a US citizen.

One thing she mentioned a lot was how they forced the Kurds to speak Farsi and forbid Kurdish language literature anywhere, especially on signs. They also forbid them to teach their religious history which she described as being a sort of mystic combination of Judaism and Islam.

She had nothing good to say about the Iranian leadership and government, but she is gone now and a US citizen. Are there more like her that are still there? Probably, but whether they can band together, rally behind some leaders and form a government that can hold onto power is a really big if and something I don't have a lot of confidence in. They need an Ataturk type to come along if the current Ayatollah gets thrown aside somehow.

No, my fears are that we will have years long war with our soldiers and draining our economy. My fears are we are serious about taking over Gaza and providing security there. My fears are that we are also doing this at a time when we and our partners in this are becoming unpopular and untrustworthy on the world stage. For starters.

 

[Chadstroma]

Is the fear that we end up with another Iraq power-vacuum situation that trickles on for too long and isn't really much better than what was there before?

One thing, if Iran does have these more modern/progressive roots is some of that still around to step up and move the country forward or has it been beaten into full submission by the religious extremists?

I worked with a lady for a few months last year who had fled Iran, but she was a Kurd from the northwest region and not really a descendent of the core Iranian people. However, she was a young child in 1979 and watched the changes take place. She was educated and married but fled without her husband because she no longer felt safe and didn't want her son to grow up there. Literally left her family and everyone she knew and moved to the US with her son and had never been back for like 10 years. She went through the asylum process and became a US citizen.

One thing she mentioned a lot was how they forced the Kurds to speak Farsi and forbid Kurdish language literature anywhere, especially on signs. They also forbid them to teach their religious history which she described as being a sort of mystic combination of Judaism and Islam.

She had nothing good to say about the Iranian leadership and government, but she is gone now and a US citizen. Are there more like her that are still there? Probably, but whether they can band together, rally behind some leaders and form a government that can hold onto power is a really big if and something I don't have a lot of confidence in. They need an Ataturk type to come along if the current Ayatollah gets thrown aside somehow.

It is hard to tell because even though there are some opposition groups, Iran is 89% Shia with only about 10% Sunni. Ethnically, it is a little more diverse with 61% Persian, 16% Azerbaijani, 10% Kurd. The Kurds are probably the biggest threat with the most organized opposition. The previous unrest seemed to be organic from the people and there is some evidence that the general populace would prefer a post-Islamic Republic. Of course, even if a large portion would want a more modern Democratic government, there would be a sizable number who would fight to keep it an extremist Islamic Republic.

Iran is the largest supporter of terror in the world today. Even with an Iran in chaos one huge benefit would be that Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Islamic Jihad, and various militia groups in Syria would lose their main patron. Also, N. Korea loses a country that it cooperates with in missile and nuclear technology as well as China and Russia losing a significant ally in the region. Whomever replaced Iran eventually could not be worse than what is in power now- though they very well may not be our next great ally either. However, an Iran that is an internal mess is still a big win for us and our allies.

 

[Chadstroma]

Is the fear that we end up with another Iraq power-vacuum situation that trickles on for too long and isn't really much better than what was there before?

One thing, if Iran does have these more modern/progressive roots is some of that still around to step up and move the country forward or has it been beaten into full submission by the religious extremists?

I worked with a lady for a few months last year who had fled Iran, but she was a Kurd from the northwest region and not really a descendent of the core Iranian people. However, she was a young child in 1979 and watched the changes take place. She was educated and married but fled without her husband because she no longer felt safe and didn't want her son to grow up there. Literally left her family and everyone she knew and moved to the US with her son and had never been back for like 10 years. She went through the asylum process and became a US citizen.

One thing she mentioned a lot was how they forced the Kurds to speak Farsi and forbid Kurdish language literature anywhere, especially on signs. They also forbid them to teach their religious history which she described as being a sort of mystic combination of Judaism and Islam.

She had nothing good to say about the Iranian leadership and government, but she is gone now and a US citizen. Are there more like her that are still there? Probably, but whether they can band together, rally behind some leaders and form a government that can hold onto power is a really big if and something I don't have a lot of confidence in. They need an Ataturk type to come along if the current Ayatollah gets thrown aside somehow.

No, my fears are that we will have years long war with our soldiers and draining our economy. My fears are we are serious about taking over Gaza and providing security there. My fears are that we are also doing this at a time when we and our partners in this are becoming unpopular and untrustworthy on the world stage. For starters.

I have very little fear of our involvement going beyond air and sea strikes. Our interests can be achieved through air and sea power. I see no reason for boots on the ground. Israel has the fraction of air and sea power that we have and they within a couple of days gained air superiority. A number of years back, we took out half of their Navy in one day.

The Arab nations have long been more wary of Iran than they have of Israel. They have to publicly show displeasure as the average Muslim the street would be upset over their leadership siding with Jews over another Muslim country but for those who follow this closely, there really is no doubt that they are happy to see Iran's military be degraded, their nuclear program dismantled and potentially the regime to fall.... as long as the Sea of Hormuz remains open, their oil facilities are not targeted and they do not get dragged into the fray.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Is the fear that we end up with another Iraq power-vacuum situation that trickles on for too long and isn't really much better than what was there before?

One thing, if Iran does have these more modern/progressive roots is some of that still around to step up and move the country forward or has it been beaten into full submission by the religious extremists?

I worked with a lady for a few months last year who had fled Iran, but she was a Kurd from the northwest region and not really a descendent of the core Iranian people. However, she was a young child in 1979 and watched the changes take place. She was educated and married but fled without her husband because she no longer felt safe and didn't want her son to grow up there. Literally left her family and everyone she knew and moved to the US with her son and had never been back for like 10 years. She went through the asylum process and became a US citizen.

One thing she mentioned a lot was how they forced the Kurds to speak Farsi and forbid Kurdish language literature anywhere, especially on signs. They also forbid them to teach their religious history which she described as being a sort of mystic combination of Judaism and Islam.

She had nothing good to say about the Iranian leadership and government, but she is gone now and a US citizen. Are there more like her that are still there? Probably, but whether they can band together, rally behind some leaders and form a government that can hold onto power is a really big if and something I don't have a lot of confidence in. They need an Ataturk type to come along if the current Ayatollah gets thrown aside somehow.

No, my fears are that we will have years long war with our soldiers and draining our economy. My fears are we are serious about taking over Gaza and providing security there. My fears are that we are also doing this at a time when we and our partners in this are becoming unpopular and untrustworthy on the world stage. For starters.

I have very little fear of our involvement going beyond air and sea strikes. Our interests can be achieved through air and sea power. I see no reason for boots on the ground. Israel has the fraction of air and sea power that we have and they within a couple of days gained air superiority. A number of years back, we took out half of their Navy in one day.

The Arab nations have long been more wary of Iran than they have of Israel. They have to publicly show displeasure as the average Muslim the street would be upset over their leadership siding with Jews over another Muslim country but for those who follow this closely, there really is no doubt that they are happy to see Iran's military be degraded, their nuclear program dismantled and potentially the regime to fall.... as long as the Sea of Hormuz remains open, their oil facilities are not targeted and they do not get dragged into the fray.

I hope you are right, but I still fail to see how this doesn't end up like Iraq and Afghanistan. We have had all the confidence in the world going into those events, and similar to now were told how "esay" it was going to be.

 

[Chadstroma]

Israel continues to unalive more major bad guys.

Blow to Iran and Palestine as Israel Eliminates Saeed Izadi​

Iran and Palestine suffered a setback after Israel eliminated Saeed Izadi, the commander of the Palestine Corps.

Izadi was killed in an apartment in Qom on June 21, a city south of Tehran, during an airstrike carried out by Israeli fighter jets, as the military stated the operation followed an intelligence-gathering mission.

“Izadi was also the commander of the Palestine Corps of the Quds Force, a key coordinator between the Iranian regime and Hamas, and one of the main orchestrators of the October 7 massacre,” the Israel Defence Forces said.

The reported assassination comes as tensions between Israel and Iran intensify, following a series of retaliatory strikes over the past week.

Saeed Izadi Eliminated by Israel​

According to the Israel Defence Forces, Izadi was responsible for increasing the financial funding from Iran to Hamas for terrorist activities against Israel.

During the war, he was also responsible for directing Hamas forces operating from Lebanon.

“Since then, he has been committed to rebuilding Hamas’ military wing and ensuring that Hamas remains the controlling authority in Gaza,” the Israel Defence Forces added.

According to a statement IDF, Saeed Izadi had been orchestrating a multi-front assault on Israel.

The plan reportedly involved coordinated missile strikes followed by a second phase—an invasion by thousands of militants from Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and the West Bank.

The United States and Britain had imposed sanctions on Izadi, citing his alleged connections to Hamas and the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad, both of which were involved in the October 7 attacks.

Who is Saeed Izadi?

Izadi was accused of facilitating coordination between Palestinian militant groups, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the regime of former Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, in efforts to establish a “resistance axis” modelled on the vision of slain IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani.

He also played a role in linking senior IRGC figures and officials from the Islamic Republic with top Hamas leaders.

The Islamic Republic viewed him as a knowledgeable figure on Palestinian affairs.

Iran Goes After Trump

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Wednesday, June 18, declared that the nation would never surrender to the demands of President Donald Trump.

While addressing the Iranian nation, he said that war would be met with war, bombing with bombing, and a strike with a strike.

“We warn America of the consequences of engaging in war, because it will suffer severe damage if it decides to do so,” Khamenei said.

In his address, he also warned that the United States would face “irreparable damage” if it continued on its current path.

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

Whomever replaced Iran eventually could not be worse than what is in power now

History has a habit of proving statements like this incorrect

The Kurds are probably the biggest threat with the most organized opposition.

The clown shop that divided this part of the arab world as part of the Sykes-Picot Agreement from 1916 following the collapse of the Ottoman empire left a mess.
The Kurds have proven reliable allies time and time again yet western countries keep ****ing them over.
A united Kurdistan would be a formidable power in the region. Instead they are a persecuted minority in Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria.
Each of these four countries take turns at who can treat the Kurds the worst. Iraq is the only one that currently has them above rats in the pecking order.

 

[Chadstroma]

I hope you are right, but I still fail to see how this doesn't end up like Iraq and Afghanistan. We have had all the confidence in the world going into those events, and similar to now were told how "esay" it was going to be.

Absolutely nothing like Iraq or Afghanistan where in both we needed boots on the ground.

 

[Chadstroma]

Whomever replaced Iran eventually could not be worse than what is in power now

History has a habit of proving statements like this incorrect

Would the next regime support terror even harder? Seek to wipe Israel and Jews off the map even harder? Iran has set a pretty high bar on being bad.

 

[John Maddens Lunchbox]

Is the fear that we end up with another Iraq power-vacuum situation that trickles on for too long and isn't really much better than what was there before?

One thing, if Iran does have these more modern/progressive roots is some of that still around to step up and move the country forward or has it been beaten into full submission by the religious extremists?

I worked with a lady for a few months last year who had fled Iran, but she was a Kurd from the northwest region and not really a descendent of the core Iranian people. However, she was a young child in 1979 and watched the changes take place. She was educated and married but fled without her husband because she no longer felt safe and didn't want her son to grow up there. Literally left her family and everyone she knew and moved to the US with her son and had never been back for like 10 years. She went through the asylum process and became a US citizen.

One thing she mentioned a lot was how they forced the Kurds to speak Farsi and forbid Kurdish language literature anywhere, especially on signs. They also forbid them to teach their religious history which she described as being a sort of mystic combination of Judaism and Islam.

She had nothing good to say about the Iranian leadership and government, but she is gone now and a US citizen. Are there more like her that are still there? Probably, but whether they can band together, rally behind some leaders and form a government that can hold onto power is a really big if and something I don't have a lot of confidence in. They need an Ataturk type to come along if the current Ayatollah gets thrown aside somehow.

No, my fears are that we will have years long war with our soldiers and draining our economy. My fears are we are serious about taking over Gaza and providing security there. My fears are that we are also doing this at a time when we and our partners in this are becoming unpopular and untrustworthy on the world stage. For starters.

I have very little fear of our involvement going beyond air and sea strikes. Our interests can be achieved through air and sea power. I see no reason for boots on the ground. Israel has the fraction of air and sea power that we have and they within a couple of days gained air superiority. A number of years back, we took out half of their Navy in one day.

The Arab nations have long been more wary of Iran than they have of Israel. They have to publicly show displeasure as the average Muslim the street would be upset over their leadership siding with Jews over another Muslim country but for those who follow this closely, there really is no doubt that they are happy to see Iran's military be degraded, their nuclear program dismantled and potentially the regime to fall.... as long as the Sea of Hormuz remains open, their oil facilities are not targeted and they do not get dragged into the fray.

I hope you are right, but I still fail to see how this doesn't end up like Iraq and Afghanistan. We have had all the confidence in the world going into those events, and similar to now were told how "esay" it was going to be.

Hindsight is not a strength of the military industrial complex
Finding new enemies is.
It’s easy to rally the masses. Therefore no matter how much some people scream and shout they (M.I.C) always get to fill their boots

 

[TennesseeJed]

US has completed "successful" bombing runs on 3 nuclear sites.

ETA:
Acyn

@Acyn
·
2m


Trump: We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home.