Iran Launches "Large Scale Attack" on Israel (3 Viewers)

[KarmaPolice]

Hegseth same link.

The battle damage assessment is ongoing. But our initial assessment, as the Chairman said, is that all of our precision munitions struck where we wanted them to strike and had the desired effect, which means especially in Fordow, which was the primary target here. We believe we achieved destruction of capabilities there.

Hegseth same link:

SECRETARY HEGSETH: This mission was not and has not been about regime change. The president authorized a precision operation to neutralize the threats to our national interests posed by the Iranian nuclear program and the collective self-defense of our troops and our ally Israel.

 

[Sand]

As someone who works in NYC and passes through penn station every week, I worry about terrorism retaliation here. Scary times

Given that these folks are targeting Penn Station I'd be concerned. Violence follows these people and they're being very open about an Intifada in the US.

Chaos Unfolds As Pro-Palestine Protesters Storm Penn Station In New York

Pro-Palestinian protestors stormed Penn Station in New York City during a “Globalize The Intifada” rally on Saturday. The protest started at Union Square Park in New York City as demonstrators gathered in opposition to Israel’s war in the Middle East.

www.aol.com

 

[Peggy]

Changed the course of history. Iran is no longer a nuclear threat to the region and the world.

USA! USA!

I’d like confirmation that the facilities were actually destroyed before doing victory laps over it. Seems like it’s far too early to know.

14 bunkers on 3 targets? They do not exist anymore.

They've never been used before and certainly never on a target like Fordow.

My statement was based on capacity. That was 3-4 times as many needed. But the Pentagon has confirmed it now anyway.

Huge success, huge win.

The Pentagon isn’t a neutral, reliable source of facts

Hope you are right tho

You want a neutral country to verify what the US is saying? 14 of the biggest most technological weapons in history dropped on just 3 sites and you think we might have missed?

Huh? I said none of that. Literally none of it. Try re-reading my post word-for-word, without interpretation.

I guess you could clarify what you meant that "the Pentagon isn't neutral". What source do you consider neutral if it isn't our own reconnaissance?

The Pentagon is and always has been political. It is part of the official propaganda apparatus and always has been. Propaganda machines by definition don’t tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. They reveal selective information.

The links and info shared by our resident “FFA Faust” ask very important questions about the impact of the bombing. It sounds like it was impactful and effective, but we don’t really know to what extent yet. And I’d like to understand those details, which to some degree conflict with the tone of the Pentagon official proclamations. Time will tell. Hope we crippled Iran’s nuclear ambitions for decades.

Were not supposed to get political so I'll just say yikes.

Always good to question, but, I don't see a reason to not report or go out of the way to make claims about neutrality for our leaders who are claiming it a "spectacular success" with first hand and full knowledge of the situation.

These is the same people that said Iran was years away from a bomb and now they aren't. They said they were negotiating with Iran, then said that was a rouse to let Israel strike them. I think there is good reason not to fully trust what they say right away.

OK. Who is?

There are other world agencies that will do this as well as other countries. But of course we don't believe them on other things to do with Isreal and this conflict, so I guess that puts us back to square one.

I am confident we hit the targets as they say and that part of the mission was a success, thankfully. All I am saying is that I don't think we can know the extent of the damage right away, and to suggest we don't just believe the first person in our administration who says something.

That's exactly what I thought Alex wanted, but, he said he didn't say that. I'm betting other agencies and countries won't find anything functioning, if they find anything at all, at these sites.

How about we just report who says what and avoid going out of our way to say our team isn't neutral?

 

[Ilov80s]

As someone who works in NYC and passes through penn station every week, I worry about terrorism retaliation here. Scary times

Given that these folks are targeting Penn Station I'd be concerned. Violence follows these people and they're being very open about an Intifada in the US.

Chaos Unfolds As Pro-Palestine Protesters Storm Penn Station In New York

Pro-Palestinian protestors stormed Penn Station in New York City during a “Globalize The Intifada” rally on Saturday. The protest started at Union Square Park in New York City as demonstrators gathered in opposition to Israel’s war in the Middle East.

www.aol.com

Honest question, of all the violence that’s happening related to the Middle East, what have these protestors done yet? What major violence follows them? Of all the horrible things I’ve read and seen about Israel, Gaza, etc. the protestors haven’t really caught my attention as bringing much violence. I live and in work in an extremely pro Palestinian part of the country, probably the most. It’s always very peaceful here.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

So basically we have no idea where the HEU is, and in theory it could only take a handful of days to turn that HEU into a weapon. If I’m misreading this, hopefully someone smarter than me can correct me. Not feeling super comfortable right now TBH.

Two things:

1. The collective knowledge within the intelligence communities of the US, Israel, and partner nations on this topic vastly exceeds anything we know. And figuring out the location of that HEU would be a top priority.

2. Pushing some of that HEU to 90% is something that could have occurred in days/weeks pre-US strike. That does not mean they have a working bomb. From WSJ:

Steps to Nuclear Weapon
Step 1: Iran converts pure uranium into gas form and then uses thousands of centrifuges in its enrichment sites to spin the material into a highly enriched form. Once it has enriched uranium to around 90%, it is usable for a nuclear weapon.

Iran’s status: Iran was operating more than 16,000 centrifuges before Israel's attack, including thousands of more advanced machines. It is the only nonnuclear weapons country to be producing 60% highly enriched uranium.
Step 2: The weapons-grade enriched uranium needs to be converted from its gas form into metallic form through a chemical process. The metal then needs melding and casting into hemispheric forms, a mechanical process requiring high precision machinery.
Iran’s status: Iran resumed some basic work on uranium metal in 2021. Israel knocked out its uranium metal production facilities in its strikes this month.
Step 3: Iran has worked on creating an implosion weapon that uses high explosives to compress fissile material to start a chain reaction. Among the ingredients required is a wiring system that sends a huge electrical impulse to a detonator that uniformly ignites the high explosives in the weapon. The core of a nuclear weapon is made up of the uranium metal and a neutron initiator, which triggers a burst of neutrons to set off the chain reaction in a nuclear explosion.
Iran’s status: Iran is known to have produced and worked on many of the components of a warhead in the past, including neutron initiators, multipoint detonators and uranium metal. But Iran isn't thought to have started work on trying to assemble the various components into a possible warhead.
Step 4: Iran’s past nuclear weapons work aims to deliver a warhead using its Shahab-3 liquid-based ballistic missiles, although a warhead could theoretically be delivered by truck or ship. The Shahab-3 employs a separating re-entry vehicle, protecting the weapon during launch and re-entry into the atmosphere.
Iran’s status: Iran is believed to have kept its missile system largely separate from its past nuclear weapons work. It’s therefore believed not to have carried out all the usual tests on how a warhead would actually perform with its missiles.
Step 5: Unless Iran kicks out inspectors and withdraws from the treaty banning the development of nuclear-weapons, Tehran would have to carry out key aspects of its nuclear-weapons production covertly, without attracting the attention of inspectors or foreign intelligence agencies. That would require Iran to build secret facilities and would take time.
Iran’s status: Iran built a number of nuclear facilities in the past secretly without informing the U.N. atomic agency. It had threatened to kick out inspectors if Israel attacked.

From Dr. Ian Stewart (biography here):

Of course, enriching the material is not the final step in producing a nuclear weapon. The material would need to be converted into Uranium metal and cast into a weapons shape. To date, Iran has built expertise in converting uranium to metal at the Esfahan site. Presumably, if Iran was to make a dash for a weapon this work could not be done at Esfahan since Israel is likely to continue to pound the facility. Again, Iran may have a secret site squirreled away somewhere in the country for this purpose.

This is why we see statements from the WSJ (5 days ago) like: "The U.S. estimates that it would probably take Iran one to two weeks to produce enough weapons-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon, and U.S. officials have said Iran could build some kind of crude nuclear weapon in a few months."

Caveat all of that with the statement that estimates are likely to differ among various intelligence communities. Mossad may offer a different timeline. They may interpret things differently.

And one has to wonder the impact of US/Israeli strikes have had on the ability of Iran to conduct Steps 1-5 above. On 6/17 (obviously not taking into account the heavy US strikes last night), the WSJ said: "The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Israel’s campaign so far had set Iran’s nuclear work back by about five to six months, the senior U.S. intelligence official said, adding that the damage could grow as Israel’s campaign continues." And once again, that's the US IC's assessment. Israel may assess differently. And clearly, we have seen some disagreements in assessments from Israel and the US on some aspects of Iran's nuclear program and what different things being researched could mean. I'm not the arbiter to decide who is right or wrong on this matter.

Iran’s Fordo Site Said to Look Severely Damaged, Not Destroyed

The Israeli military, in an initial analysis, believes the heavily fortified nuclear site at Fordo has sustained serious damage from the American strike on Sunday, but has not been completely destroyed, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the matter. The officials also said it appeared Iran had moved equipment, including uranium, from the site.

The initial assessment by the Israelis was based on Israeli satellite imagery and additional aerial photography conducted over the site, as well as Israeli intelligence monitoring of Fordo, according to the Israeli officials.

The Israelis, in their assessment, are also looking satellite imagery from a few days before the U.S. strikes. They believe the images show the Iranians moving uranium and equipment from the Fordo facility.

Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration and a former C.I.A. officer, said of the strike: “With the type and amount of munitions used, it will likely set back the Iranian nuclear weapon program two to five years.”
“A full battle damage assessment will be conducted in the coming days to determine that more accurately,” he added.

https://x.com/shashj/status/1936816484749119837

One expert told me that the images suggested that the US strikes had targeted Fordow’s ventilation and access tunnels.

 

[eighsse2]

Do we have any sort of information of whether the bunker busters at Fordow hit the same hole or not? I heard somewhere that they did not, but I don't remember if it was on this board or somewhere else, or if it was real info or just some guy.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

So basically we have no idea where the HEU is, and in theory it could only take a handful of days to turn that HEU into a weapon. If I’m misreading this, hopefully someone smarter than me can correct me. Not feeling super comfortable right now TBH.

Two things:

1. The collective knowledge within the intelligence communities of the US, Israel, and partner nations on this topic vastly exceeds anything we know. And figuring out the location of that HEU would be a top priority.

2. Pushing some of that HEU to 90% is something that could have occurred in days/weeks pre-US strike. That does not mean they have a working bomb. From WSJ:

Steps to Nuclear Weapon
Step 1: Iran converts pure uranium into gas form and then uses thousands of centrifuges in its enrichment sites to spin the material into a highly enriched form. Once it has enriched uranium to around 90%, it is usable for a nuclear weapon.

Iran’s status: Iran was operating more than 16,000 centrifuges before Israel's attack, including thousands of more advanced machines. It is the only nonnuclear weapons country to be producing 60% highly enriched uranium.
Step 2: The weapons-grade enriched uranium needs to be converted from its gas form into metallic form through a chemical process. The metal then needs melding and casting into hemispheric forms, a mechanical process requiring high precision machinery.
Iran’s status: Iran resumed some basic work on uranium metal in 2021. Israel knocked out its uranium metal production facilities in its strikes this month.
Step 3: Iran has worked on creating an implosion weapon that uses high explosives to compress fissile material to start a chain reaction. Among the ingredients required is a wiring system that sends a huge electrical impulse to a detonator that uniformly ignites the high explosives in the weapon. The core of a nuclear weapon is made up of the uranium metal and a neutron initiator, which triggers a burst of neutrons to set off the chain reaction in a nuclear explosion.
Iran’s status: Iran is known to have produced and worked on many of the components of a warhead in the past, including neutron initiators, multipoint detonators and uranium metal. But Iran isn't thought to have started work on trying to assemble the various components into a possible warhead.
Step 4: Iran’s past nuclear weapons work aims to deliver a warhead using its Shahab-3 liquid-based ballistic missiles, although a warhead could theoretically be delivered by truck or ship. The Shahab-3 employs a separating re-entry vehicle, protecting the weapon during launch and re-entry into the atmosphere.
Iran’s status: Iran is believed to have kept its missile system largely separate from its past nuclear weapons work. It’s therefore believed not to have carried out all the usual tests on how a warhead would actually perform with its missiles.
Step 5: Unless Iran kicks out inspectors and withdraws from the treaty banning the development of nuclear-weapons, Tehran would have to carry out key aspects of its nuclear-weapons production covertly, without attracting the attention of inspectors or foreign intelligence agencies. That would require Iran to build secret facilities and would take time.
Iran’s status: Iran built a number of nuclear facilities in the past secretly without informing the U.N. atomic agency. It had threatened to kick out inspectors if Israel attacked.

From Dr. Ian Stewart (biography here):

Of course, enriching the material is not the final step in producing a nuclear weapon. The material would need to be converted into Uranium metal and cast into a weapons shape. To date, Iran has built expertise in converting uranium to metal at the Esfahan site. Presumably, if Iran was to make a dash for a weapon this work could not be done at Esfahan since Israel is likely to continue to pound the facility. Again, Iran may have a secret site squirreled away somewhere in the country for this purpose.

This is why we see statements from the WSJ (5 days ago) like: "The U.S. estimates that it would probably take Iran one to two weeks to produce enough weapons-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon, and U.S. officials have said Iran could build some kind of crude nuclear weapon in a few months."

Caveat all of that with the statement that estimates are likely to differ among various intelligence communities. Mossad may offer a different timeline. They may interpret things differently.

And one has to wonder the impact of US/Israeli strikes have had on the ability of Iran to conduct Steps 1-5 above. On 6/17 (obviously not taking into account the heavy US strikes last night), the WSJ said: "The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Israel’s campaign so far had set Iran’s nuclear work back by about five to six months, the senior U.S. intelligence official said, adding that the damage could grow as Israel’s campaign continues." And once again, that's the US IC's assessment. Israel may assess differently. And clearly, we have seen some disagreements in assessments from Israel and the US on some aspects of Iran's nuclear program and what different things being researched could mean. I'm not the arbiter to decide who is right or wrong on this matter.

Iran’s Fordo Site Said to Look Severely Damaged, Not Destroyed

The Israeli military, in an initial analysis, believes the heavily fortified nuclear site at Fordo has sustained serious damage from the American strike on Sunday, but has not been completely destroyed, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the matter. The officials also said it appeared Iran had moved equipment, including uranium, from the site.

The initial assessment by the Israelis was based on Israeli satellite imagery and additional aerial photography conducted over the site, as well as Israeli intelligence monitoring of Fordo, according to the Israeli officials.

The Israelis, in their assessment, are also looking satellite imagery from a few days before the U.S. strikes. They believe the images show the Iranians moving uranium and equipment from the Fordo facility.

Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration and a former C.I.A. officer, said of the strike: “With the type and amount of munitions used, it will likely set back the Iranian nuclear weapon program two to five years.”
“A full battle damage assessment will be conducted in the coming days to determine that more accurately,” he added.

https://x.com/shashj/status/1936816484749119837

One expert told me that the images suggested that the US strikes had targeted Fordow’s ventilation and access tunnels.

Can’t possibly thank you enough for this and all of your other posts in this thread

 

[Peggy]

They possibility that China could help them with anything that's left over....we'll yeah China could just give them a nuke. I don't think that factors any.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

​

China helped build several of their facilities. It's not a huge leap to think China would be sympathetic to Iran's position.

China is sympathetic to the Chinese making money. If China wanted Iran a nuclear state they have the ability to have made that happen long ago. They will happily sell them new research reactors etc because it is about making money for them. The only other interest that China has in Iran is that they are a PIA for the US.

Does it really matter WHY they are supporting them or just that they support them?

China is our biggest threat and we need to wake up to it. The purpose of knowing why is understanding what China will and will not do in their support of Iran. It is much more an enemy of my enemy is my friend than them being best buds. China is oppressive of Islam- they don't want to empower Muslims to the point that it would be an issue internally for them but support them enough for them to continue to be a PIA to us.

Would you agree that China will do what they've already done to support Iran? They've shown over the years they will help build facilities, transport uranium, and help with enrichment process.

Iran will pay them...yeah?

whatever it takes. What point do you think I am making here? These seem like odd questions. I am merely pointing out that China has and will continue to help them. That shouldn't be a stretch. Knowing that, it's not a huge leap to think they agreed to take raw material from Iran and put it in a safe place for them. If your rebuttal to that is "Ok, but it's only because they are making money from doing so" our lenses are very different. I don't particularly care why China is doing it. I care that they are doing it. I don't know if anyone else is paying attention, but NK, Russia, China, Iran; all of them are willing to help each other. They aren't hiding it. This isn't some conspiracy theory. It's right there in the open for everyone to see.

Is there any news source saying that China took possession of the HEU and spirited it away? Or do you mean something else by "raw material"? Either way please share the link as I hadn't heard this.

Not that I am aware of. I posed the question above on where the uranium etc had moved to. Someone then chimed in with "Chinese cargo planes seen in Iran" and then speculation from there. The material is somewhere. Just don't know where, which is a problem.

 

[WDIK2]

Israel carrying out new wave of strikes.

Link

 

[fatness]

Iran parliament reportedly backs closing Strait of Hormuz, which could spike oil prices

Iran's parliament has endorsed closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit point off its coast, but analysts are skeptical about the threat from a body without authority to close the strait.

The threat is among the initial responses to yesterday's U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear sites.

• Trying to block the strait would be the first time that the Israel-Iran conflict meaningfully affects global oil flows.
• Authority to do so rests with regime security officials and not parliament.

 

[fatness]

Head of Iran's Red Crescent Society says no radiation reported from U.S. strikes

The head of Iran's Red Crescent Society said that no radiation was reported in the wake of the U.S. strikes on three major nuclear facilities in Iran. Eleven people were injured as a result of the strikes, though most have already been released from the hospital.

 

[fatness]

https://www.justsecurity.org/115234/policy-legal-iran-nuclear-strikes/

Iran's Retaliatory Options

Iran now faces a range of constrained but potentially destabilizing choices. Iranian leaders likely will try to reassert deterrence through a show of continued strength, while avoiding actions that could trigger full-scale war with the United States. Setting aside legal considerations, the below options are not mutually exclusive and carry varying levels of risk in terms of conflict escalation and potential blowback to Iran:


Missile and Drone Strikes. Iran maintains a diverse and advanced missile stockpile, with some capable of targeting the United States and its allies, although the Israeli government claims to have destroyed half of Iran’s missile launchers since June 13. Tehran may opt for a calibrated strike—similar to its 2020 missile attack on Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq, which houses U.S. and allied forces, following the U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Iraq. (That strike resulted in over 100 U.S. troops suffering traumatic brain injuries.) Such a strike could demonstrate resolve while aiming to stay below the threshold of major escalation, but it may not be viewed within Iranian leadership as a sufficient response to the U.S. use of force against Iran.


Proxy and Terrorist Attacks. Iran may activate regional proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, or the Houthis in Yemen. These groups could target U.S. personnel, military installations, or allied interests in the region. The Houthis have already threatened to target U.S. naval vessels in the Red Sea in response to the U.S. strikes. A Hezbollah spokesperson, by contrast, indicated the group has no immediate plans to retaliate following the U.S. strikes.


Even if these groups do join the fighting, Iran’s most capable regional proxies—Hezbollah and Hamas—have suffered major setbacks since the Israeli response to the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023. Israeli officials estimate that Hezbollah maintains only some 20 percent of the missiles and rockets it had before the war. Dozens of senior Hezbollah commanders, including the longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, have been killed in targeted Israeli strikes. Hamas, meanwhile, has seen much of its leadership killed or displaced, and its military infrastructure in Gaza severely degraded by sustained Israeli operations.


Tehran may also turn to transnational terrorism. The direct use of force against Iran could prompt attacks beyond the region. Hezbollah-linked operatives and Iranian sleeper cells may pose a potential threat to Israeli, European, or U.S. interests. Iran has demonstrated the intent and capacity to orchestrate extraterritorial attacks, including a foiled 2011 attempt to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, DC; a 2022 murder-for-hire plot targeting Iranian-American journalist Masih Alinejad in New York City; alleged plots against former National Security Advisor John Bolton and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; and reported threats against Trump in 2024.


Maritime Disruption. Iran could attempt to disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz through mining, drone activity, or harassing commercial and military vessels. Such action would threaten global energy markets and signal Tehran’s willingness to retaliate, but also pose a high risk of direct confrontation with U.S. and allied forces that could threaten regime survival. Such a move also risks angering China—the largest importer of Iranian oil—whose economy is dependent on energy transported through the Strait, and has so far remained relatively neutral in the conflict.


Cyber Operations. Cyber retaliation remains a likely and strategically flexible option. Iran has previously targeted critical infrastructure through cyberattacks and has intensified such operations amid ongoing conflict with Israel. Iranian malicious cyber activity reportedly surged by more than 700 percent since June 13.


A cyber response could allow Iran to impose costs while retaining plausible deniability. Potential targets include energy infrastructure, telecommunications systems, financial networks, and other critical infrastructure within the United States and abroad. U.S. companies are on high alert, but defensive gaps remain—particularly in light of the Trump administration’s recent staff reductions and proposed additional budget cuts at the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.


Cyber escalation is inherently unpredictable. Even without deliberate targeting, malicious code can propagate widely, as seen in the unintended global spread of Stuxnet—an alleged U.S.-Israel cyberweapon designed to disrupt Iran’s centrifuges that ultimately infected companies based in the United States.


Withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran may choose to withdraw from the NPT and reconstitute its nuclear program outside international oversight. (The treaty obligates non-nuclear-weapon States to forgo the development or acquisition of nuclear weapons, while allowing access to peaceful nuclear technology under IAEA safeguards, among other constraints.) While this would carry significant diplomatic and economic consequences, it could serve as a form of strategic signaling and raise the specter of a nuclear breakout (see further discussion on potential NPT withdrawal below.)

 

[thecatch]

Changed the course of history. Iran is no longer a nuclear threat to the region and the world.

USA! USA!

I’d like confirmation that the facilities were actually destroyed before doing victory laps over it. Seems like it’s far too early to know.

14 bunkers on 3 targets? They do not exist anymore.

They've never been used before and certainly never on a target like Fordow.

My statement was based on capacity. That was 3-4 times as many needed. But the Pentagon has confirmed it now anyway.

Huge success, huge win.

The Pentagon isn’t a neutral, reliable source of facts

Hope you are right tho

You want a neutral country to verify what the US is saying? 14 of the biggest most technological weapons in history dropped on just 3 sites and you think we might have missed?

Huh? I said none of that. Literally none of it. Try re-reading my post word-for-word, without interpretation.

I guess you could clarify what you meant that "the Pentagon isn't neutral". What source do you consider neutral if it isn't our own reconnaissance?

The Pentagon is and always has been political. It is part of the official propaganda apparatus and always has been. Propaganda machines by definition don’t tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. They reveal selective information.

The links and info shared by our resident “FFA Faust” ask very important questions about the impact of the bombing. It sounds like it was impactful and effective, but we don’t really know to what extent yet. And I’d like to understand those details, which to some degree conflict with the tone of the Pentagon official proclamations. Time will tell. Hope we crippled Iran’s nuclear ambitions for decades.

Were not supposed to get political so I'll just say yikes.

Always good to question, but, I don't see a reason to not report or go out of the way to make claims about neutrality for our leaders who are claiming it a "spectacular success" with first hand and full knowledge of the situation.

There is zero political about what I wrote. It’s true of every Pentagon, every administration, certainly back to the Vietnam era. You seem pretty smart, so I’m guessing you already know this, but for whatever reason don’t want to acknowledge it.

From the other threads you are engaged in right now, it’s pretty clear you are on tilt and not interested in anything except being right. I’ll bow out.

Trying to move past this so I'll bow out too.

But it's interesting to note that you never said what you considered a nutrual source of information on this after making sure to say the Pentagon isnt. Like it or not, the guys with full and first had knowledge are the best sources of information right now.

How many guys from the pentagon have been there on site visits in the last 12 hours?

 

[Peggy]

Changed the course of history. Iran is no longer a nuclear threat to the region and the world.

USA! USA!

I’d like confirmation that the facilities were actually destroyed before doing victory laps over it. Seems like it’s far too early to know.

14 bunkers on 3 targets? They do not exist anymore.

They've never been used before and certainly never on a target like Fordow.

My statement was based on capacity. That was 3-4 times as many needed. But the Pentagon has confirmed it now anyway.

Huge success, huge win.

The Pentagon isn’t a neutral, reliable source of facts

Hope you are right tho

You want a neutral country to verify what the US is saying? 14 of the biggest most technological weapons in history dropped on just 3 sites and you think we might have missed?

Huh? I said none of that. Literally none of it. Try re-reading my post word-for-word, without interpretation.

I guess you could clarify what you meant that "the Pentagon isn't neutral". What source do you consider neutral if it isn't our own reconnaissance?

The Pentagon is and always has been political. It is part of the official propaganda apparatus and always has been. Propaganda machines by definition don’t tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. They reveal selective information.

The links and info shared by our resident “FFA Faust” ask very important questions about the impact of the bombing. It sounds like it was impactful and effective, but we don’t really know to what extent yet. And I’d like to understand those details, which to some degree conflict with the tone of the Pentagon official proclamations. Time will tell. Hope we crippled Iran’s nuclear ambitions for decades.

Were not supposed to get political so I'll just say yikes.

Always good to question, but, I don't see a reason to not report or go out of the way to make claims about neutrality for our leaders who are claiming it a "spectacular success" with first hand and full knowledge of the situation.

There is zero political about what I wrote. It’s true of every Pentagon, every administration, certainly back to the Vietnam era. You seem pretty smart, so I’m guessing you already know this, but for whatever reason don’t want to acknowledge it.

From the other threads you are engaged in right now, it’s pretty clear you are on tilt and not interested in anything except being right. I’ll bow out.

Trying to move past this so I'll bow out too.

But it's interesting to note that you never said what you considered a nutrual source of information on this after making sure to say the Pentagon isnt. Like it or not, the guys with full and first had knowledge are the best sources of information right now.

How many guys from the pentagon have been there on site visits in the last 12 hours?

Including all our bomb ballistic details and reconnocence drone footage? Every single one that matters. It's the 21st century, you don't actually have to go there to understand what happened.

 

[Chadstroma]

China could lose more than just cheap oil if Iran collapses​

Before Saturday evening's strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, the Chinese Communist Party had demanded that Israel end its attacks on the Islamic Republic and the United States to withhold itself from the conflict. The U.S. clearly didn't heed their demands.

It's not because President Xi Jinping is a humanitarian or has a particular interest in the Iranian nuclear program. China sees the unrest in Iran as a possible flashpoint that could spill over and cut into national energy security.

Moreover, the fall of Iran would be a headache for China and its allies as it attempts to carve out international infrastructure outside the influence of the U.S. and other Western powers.

"They don't like such a direct transgression of international law," said Yun Sun, a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution John L. Thornton China Center. "They also don't like how this means that U.S. and U.S. allies will be even more dominant in the regions that are critical for China's energy security."

Iran is among the most sanctioned nations in the world. It is in possession of vast oil reserves but finds itself with few willing buyers thanks to the "maximum pressure" campaigns spearheaded by the White House and other democratic governments.

The Chinese Communist Party is one of the only governments willing to skirt international restrictions and spend money on the Islamic Republic's lucrative energy output, which the regime offers to them at a discount.

The two nations' cooperation has only expanded since the BRICS intergovernmental bloc welcomed Iran as a member in 2024, alongside fellow inductees Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Iran exports approximately 1.6 million barrels of crude oil per day. About 90% of that product makes it way to China via a loose network of black market shipping lines and refineries that launder the fuel to help meet the communist nation's demand.

China imports the majority of its oil from neighboring Russia, but the importance of Iran should not be overlooked. Iranian product currently makes up roughly 16% of China's oil imports.

"China remains a financial and military lifeline to Tehran, allowing the regime to pay for its nuclear weapons program and expand its ballistic missile arsenal," the Foundation for Defense of Democracies stated in a report earlier this month, asserting that the arrangement "accounts for nearly 20 percent of Iran’s economy and is heavily controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps."

The loss of these oil imports alone is not a critical threat to Chinese energy security, but if the conflict produces cascading effects that compromise imports and exports throughout the region, it could grow from a headache to a serious concern.

Several Middle Eastern countries are among the top sources of imported oil for China, including its No. 2 supplier, Saudi Arabia. Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman are also in that category to a lesser extent.

Almost all oil exports from these countries travel through the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranian government has already floated taking control over.

"A top concern for China — that if conflict is going to expand, then the spill over effect is going to affect the energy transportation or the shipment of the oil and gas from the region," Yun told the Washington Examiner.

She continued, "[Iran] could say, 'Well, unless Israel stops striking our territory, we're going to block all oil tankers through the strait. Let's go nuclear, let's go suicidal, let's [make it so] nobody can ship oil.' Maybe this is suicidal for Iran, but it's also going to impose significant damage on everyone else."

Belt and Road buy-in

Iran is also a prominent stage for the Communist Party's Belt and Road Initiative, the government's decades-spanning plan for growing Chinese transnational trade and influence through a Silk Road-esque infrastructure.

A highly anticipated hub in this arrangement is the China-Iran rail corridor project, which would create an efficient transit route for the People's Republic into the Middle East and Central Asia, with hopes of expanding into Africa and even connecting further West.

The Iran–China 25-year Cooperation Program was signed in 2021 in order to establish a framework for cooperation on these and other common interests, but finalized arrangements have not been approved.

The agreement was discussed by high-level diplomats as recently as last week, just days before Israel's bombings began. But progress on this front has been slow, most likely due to China's increasing unease with Iranian foreign policy and doubts about its long-term stability.


"Although the Chinese would like to believe that the 'Persian lion' is still a force to be reckoned with in the region, the reality is that its decline has been obvious and also irreversible," Yun told the Washington Examiner. "This inability for Iran to reverse or to counter [Israel], the Chinese essentially see as a destruction of the Axis of Resistance. ... There is something seriously wrong with Iran's national capability that is no longer the force that it used to be."

The threat of regime change or widespread unrest complicates the many interconnected infrastructure projects of the Belt and Road in the Middle East and Central Asia.

Xi just wrapped up a summit in Kazakhstan that also brought in the leaders of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan for multilateral meetings on the future of Chinese investment.

Foreign Ministry Spokesman Guo Jiakun emphasized China's desire to keep the region peaceful during a Thursday press conference, where he said the situation is on the brink of "sliding into [an] abyss and triggering an even larger disaster."


"The situation in the Middle East is tense and delicate and facing the risk of getting out of control," he told reporters. "China opposes any move that violates the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter and a country’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, and opposes using or threatening to use force in international relations."

The Chinese Communist Party has already been forced to evacuate approximately 1,600 Chinese nationals from Iran. Several hundred additional Chinese citizens were evacuated from Israel.

"The parties to the conflict, especially Israel, should cease fire as soon as possible to prevent the situation from escalating in turn and resolutely avoid the spillover of war," Xi said in his first remarks on the conflict, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency.

"If the conflict escalates further, not only will the conflicting parties suffer greater losses, but regional countries will also suffer greatly," Xi added.

Brics by Brick

Xi phoned Russian President Vladimir Putin about the conflict earlier this month.

The two leaders “fundamentally believe that there is no military solution to the current situation and issues related to Iran’s nuclear program," said Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov. They stressed that peace “must be achieved exclusively through political and diplomatic means."

Russia, a fellow heavyweight member of the BRICS bloc, might be enjoying the international spotlight shifting from its invasion of Ukraine to the Israeli attacks, but the threat of Iranian collapse is concerning for its long game.

Iran is a key supplier of the Russian military, shipping its armed forces everything from ballistic missiles to unmanned attack drones.


Ultimately, the end of the Islamic Republic would be a blow to the entire anti-Western ecosystem being built and compromise attempts to build spheres of influence and economic opportunity outside U.S.-led power structures.

For Xi and his party, the dust-up over Iran's nuclear energy program is not only irrelevant to Chinese prosperity, but it threatens to undermine the geopolitical accomplishments it has been pursuing for decades.

 

[Sand]

Iran parliament reportedly backs closing Strait of Hormuz, which could spike oil prices

Iran's parliament has endorsed closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit point off its coast, but analysts are skeptical about the threat from a body without authority to close the strait.

The threat is among the initial responses to yesterday's U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear sites.

• Trying to block the strait would be the first time that the Israel-Iran conflict meaningfully affects global oil flows.
• Authority to do so rests with regime security officials and not parliament.

This is a double edged sword for Iran. They need this income, assuming the 16 billion we sent them in 2023 has run out.

 

[Peggy]

David Muir ABC Nightly News: "Major damage at all sites".

Seems universally accepted by the normal news agencies. I didn't hear that ABC had anyone on site to crawl down into the facilities to make sure though.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Head of Iran's Red Crescent Society says no radiation reported from U.S. strikes

The head of Iran's Red Crescent Society said that no radiation was reported in the wake of the U.S. strikes on three major nuclear facilities in Iran. Eleven people were injured as a result of the strikes, though most have already been released from the hospital.

They were storing their uranium in gas form weren't they?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

David Muir ABC Nightly News: "Major damage at all sites".

Seems universally accepted by the normal news agencies. I didn't hear that ABC had anyone on site to crawl down into the facilities to make sure though.

Everyone agrees that there is major damage. We all want to know HOW MUCH DAMAGE. Seriously. This has been covered over and over and over in here. How much more plainly can people make it? Even the links being shared openly ask the question of how substantial the damage it is, how far it sets back Iran’s nuclear capabilities, etc. EVERYONE accepts that the damage is extensive and the attack was impactful.

It isn’t crazy to ask “ok, what does this mean for Iran’s capabilities? How many months/years did this set them back? Did they smuggle much/any of the material offsite ahead of time?” Etc etc etc.

It’s actually crazy NOT to ask those questions. Good god.

 

[General Malaise]

Head of Iran's Red Crescent Society says no radiation reported from U.S. strikes

The head of Iran's Red Crescent Society said that no radiation was reported in the wake of the U.S. strikes on three major nuclear facilities in Iran. Eleven people were injured as a result of the strikes, though most have already been released from the hospital.

They were storing their uranium in gas form weren't they?

If you mean UF6 - gaseous form uranium - it's possible that's how they store it vs U3O8. Neither one poses a great risk to life or the environment. UF6 isn’t something you'd want to play around with but it's not a major threat to the planet on its own.

 

[TennesseeJed]

We all want to know HOW MUCH DAMAGE.

I don't.


I mean the damage is whatever it is - its unlikely that there are any relabel sources as to the extent of the damage - and the extent of damage has no impact on my life, or those around me.

The Iranians will know how much damage was done. But, I don' think they will be forthcoming with that info.


What I want to know - what are the next steps - by either side. That has a much bigger impact in how this goes, and how it affects everyone than knowing how much damage was done.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

We all want to know HOW MUCH DAMAGE.

I don't.


I mean the damage is whatever it is - its unlikely that there are any relabel sources as to the extent of the damage - and the extent of damage has no impact on my life, or those around me.

The Iranians will know how much damage was done. But, I don' think they will be forthcoming with that info.


What I want to know - what are the next steps - by either side. That has a much bigger impact in how this goes, and how it affects everyone than knowing how much damage was done.

The next steps are impacted by the damage and reality of Iran’s current capabilities. So de facto you care whether you realize it or not.

 

[Sand]

Head of Iran's Red Crescent Society says no radiation reported from U.S. strikes

The head of Iran's Red Crescent Society said that no radiation was reported in the wake of the U.S. strikes on three major nuclear facilities in Iran. Eleven people were injured as a result of the strikes, though most have already been released from the hospital.

They were storing their uranium in gas form weren't they?

Or the trucks that were just there moved it all away?

Images show "unusual" activity at Iran nuclear site before strikes

"Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated," President Donald Trump said on Saturday.

www.newsweek.com

 

[beer 30]

Closing the Strait of Hormuz, while one of the few retaliatory options Iran has left, will bring us even closer to the brink than yesterdays bombing. Just my opinion.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Closing the Strait of Hormuz, while one of the few retaliatory options Iran has left, will bring us even closer to the brink than yesterdays bombing. Just my opinion.

Short of one of the other big guns getting involved on their behalf (extremely unlikely), I just don't see what cards Iran has to play. Trump has said if they retaliate like this our response will make the first bombing look like child's play.

It would seem at some point with no real cards to play and us able to cause massive damage to them pretty easily whenever we want, at some point they need to just cut their losses and accept they aren't getting nukes. Both Israel and the US have shown they will keep taking the next step further if not.

But then again, we are dealing with religious extremists here, so maybe they're willing to just keep getting bombed and hope the public gets tired of it. But the public doesn't really seem to care that much if it's not ground troops.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

U.S. Officials Concede They Don’t Know Whereabouts of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile

>>Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director of general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he believed Tehran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear material had been moved before the strikes.<<

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Saintsindome2006!!!?!!

 

[KarmaPolice]

David Muir ABC Nightly News: "Major damage at all sites".

Seems universally accepted by the normal news agencies. I didn't hear that ABC had anyone on site to crawl down into the facilities to make sure though.

Everyone agrees that there is major damage. We all want to know HOW MUCH DAMAGE. Seriously. This has been covered over and over and over in here. How much more plainly can people make it? Even the links being shared openly ask the question of how substantial the damage it is, how far it sets back Iran’s nuclear capabilities, etc. EVERYONE accepts that the damage is extensive and the attack was impactful.

It isn’t crazy to ask “ok, what does this mean for Iran’s capabilities? How many months/years did this set them back? Did they smuggle much/any of the material offsite ahead of time?” Etc etc etc.

It’s actually crazy NOT to ask those questions. Good god.

Thank you, not sure why this is so hard.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Head of Iran's Red Crescent Society says no radiation reported from U.S. strikes

The head of Iran's Red Crescent Society said that no radiation was reported in the wake of the U.S. strikes on three major nuclear facilities in Iran. Eleven people were injured as a result of the strikes, though most have already been released from the hospital.

They were storing their uranium in gas form weren't they?

If you mean UF6 - gaseous form uranium - it's possible that's how they store it vs U3O8. Neither one poses a great risk to life or the environment. UF6 isn’t something you'd want to play around with but it's not a major threat to the planet on its own.

Enrichment is done while in gas form yes? Not a chemist. Sorry if dumb question.

Hopefully they find it soon.

 

[Capella]

U.S. Officials Concede They Don’t Know Whereabouts of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile

>>Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director of general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he believed Tehran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear material had been moved before the strikes.<<

Holy ****

 

[Chadstroma]

U.S. calls on China to prevent Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global oil flows

Iran's foreign minister warned earlier Sunday that the Islamic Republic "reserves all options to defend its sovereignty" after U.S. airstrikes.

www.cnbc.com

 

[General Malaise]

Head of Iran's Red Crescent Society says no radiation reported from U.S. strikes

The head of Iran's Red Crescent Society said that no radiation was reported in the wake of the U.S. strikes on three major nuclear facilities in Iran. Eleven people were injured as a result of the strikes, though most have already been released from the hospital.

They were storing their uranium in gas form weren't they?

If you mean UF6 - gaseous form uranium - it's possible that's how they store it vs U3O8. Neither one poses a great risk to life or the environment. UF6 isn’t something you'd want to play around with but it's not a major threat to the planet on its own.

Enrichment is done while in gas form yes? Not a chemist. Sorry if dumb question.

Hopefully they find it soon.

Yes, UF6 is the feedstock for highly enriched uranium. Russia is the dominant player in that game so.....yeah, let's find this.

 

[djmich]

Closing the Strait of Hormuz, while one of the few retaliatory options Iran has left, will bring us even closer to the brink than yesterdays bombing. Just my opinion.

China will probably have a word with Iran about that.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Head of Iran's Red Crescent Society says no radiation reported from U.S. strikes

The head of Iran's Red Crescent Society said that no radiation was reported in the wake of the U.S. strikes on three major nuclear facilities in Iran. Eleven people were injured as a result of the strikes, though most have already been released from the hospital.

They were storing their uranium in gas form weren't they?

If you mean UF6 - gaseous form uranium - it's possible that's how they store it vs U3O8. Neither one poses a great risk to life or the environment. UF6 isn’t something you'd want to play around with but it's not a major threat to the planet on its own.

Enrichment is done while in gas form yes? Not a chemist. Sorry if dumb question.

Hopefully they find it soon.

Yes, UF6 is the feedstock for highly enriched uranium. Russia is the dominant player in that game so.....yeah, let's find this.

Yeah, I'm not sure how they let that become a problem.

 

[beer 30]

U.S. Officials Concede They Don’t Know Whereabouts of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile

>>Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director of general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he believed Tehran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear material had been moved before the strikes.<<

Thank you for the post. I saw this a few days ago on X so if I saw it on X then the people at the top levels of intelligence have known this for a while. When it was moved is probably open for debate but if you are a rogue nation trying to develop a nuclear weapon on the sly, I’m guessing you anticipate this and never have your stockpile in place for very long. Regardless, my point is this is not new information. Taking out the facilities to spin up 400kg of 60% enriched uranium to weapons grade 90% is a good thing and likely sets the regime back a decade or more.

But they still have 400kg of 60% uranium somewhere. I’m also guessing with the level of infiltration the Mossad has in the ME, they are close to locating it if they don’t already know.

 

[Desert_Power]

Cool stuff

 

[fatness]

Iran likely filled in tunnels at nuclear sites ahead of U.S. strikes

An analysis of satellite photos by a nuclear nonproliferation group based in Washington shows Iran likely filled in tunnels at its nuclear site at Isfahan ahead of U.S. strikes early Sunday. The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security published satellite images taken by Airbus it assessed showed trucks dumping soil into tunnels at the site on Friday. The U.S. attack likely targeted the tunnel entries, the group said. “At least three of the four tunnel entrances are collapsed,” it said. “The status of the fourth one is unclear.”

Iran also is believed to have filled in tunnels at its underground Fordo enrichment facility before the American strike.

 

[thecatch]

Changed the course of history. Iran is no longer a nuclear threat to the region and the world.

USA! USA!

I’d like confirmation that the facilities were actually destroyed before doing victory laps over it. Seems like it’s far too early to know.

14 bunkers on 3 targets? They do not exist anymore.

They've never been used before and certainly never on a target like Fordow.

My statement was based on capacity. That was 3-4 times as many needed. But the Pentagon has confirmed it now anyway.

Huge success, huge win.

The Pentagon isn’t a neutral, reliable source of facts

Hope you are right tho

You want a neutral country to verify what the US is saying? 14 of the biggest most technological weapons in history dropped on just 3 sites and you think we might have missed?

Huh? I said none of that. Literally none of it. Try re-reading my post word-for-word, without interpretation.

I guess you could clarify what you meant that "the Pentagon isn't neutral". What source do you consider neutral if it isn't our own reconnaissance?

The Pentagon is and always has been political. It is part of the official propaganda apparatus and always has been. Propaganda machines by definition don’t tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. They reveal selective information.

The links and info shared by our resident “FFA Faust” ask very important questions about the impact of the bombing. It sounds like it was impactful and effective, but we don’t really know to what extent yet. And I’d like to understand those details, which to some degree conflict with the tone of the Pentagon official proclamations. Time will tell. Hope we crippled Iran’s nuclear ambitions for decades.

Were not supposed to get political so I'll just say yikes.

Always good to question, but, I don't see a reason to not report or go out of the way to make claims about neutrality for our leaders who are claiming it a "spectacular success" with first hand and full knowledge of the situation.

There is zero political about what I wrote. It’s true of every Pentagon, every administration, certainly back to the Vietnam era. You seem pretty smart, so I’m guessing you already know this, but for whatever reason don’t want to acknowledge it.

From the other threads you are engaged in right now, it’s pretty clear you are on tilt and not interested in anything except being right. I’ll bow out.

Trying to move past this so I'll bow out too.

But it's interesting to note that you never said what you considered a nutrual source of information on this after making sure to say the Pentagon isnt. Like it or not, the guys with full and first had knowledge are the best sources of information right now.

How many guys from the pentagon have been there on site visits in the last 12 hours?

Including all our bomb ballistic details and reconnocence drone footage? Every single one that matters. It's the 21st century, you don't actually have to go there to understand what happened.

You do when you are talking about a facility that is basically an ant tunnel 300 feet underground.

 

[TennesseeJed]

The more news that comes out, the less successful this strike looks.

Obviously it depends on your definition of success, but if that was destroying Irans nuclear program/nuclear material or promoting regime change, I’d say we probably did more harm than good here. And, I don’t think we have done anything to promote long term stability in the region.

Ultimately this requires a negotiated settlement- so let’s hope that we achieve better results through that process.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Officials Concede They Don’t Know the Fate of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile​

Both Vice President JD Vance and Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, acknowledged questions about the whereabouts of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear material.

By David E. Sanger NYT
June 22, 2025

A day after President Trump declared that Iran’s nuclear program had been “completely and totally obliterated” by American bunker-busting bombs and a barrage of missiles, the actual state of the program seemed far more murky, with senior officials conceding they did not know the fate of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium.

“We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that’s one of the things that we’re going to have conversations with the Iranians about,” Vice President JD Vance told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, referring to a batch of uranium sufficient to make nine or 10 atomic weapons. Nonetheless, he contended that the country’s potential to weaponize that fuel had been set back substantially because it no longer had the equipment to turn that fuel into operative weapons.

The Iranians have made it clear they are not interested in having conversations with the United States, accusing Washington of deceiving Tehran during the last set of negotiations while planning the air attack. Moreover, that stockpile of fuel is now one of the few nuclear bargaining chips in Iranian hands.

In a briefing for reporters on Sunday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, avoided Mr. Trump’s maximalist claims of success. They said an initial battle-damage assessment of all three sites struck by Air Force B-2 bombers and Navy Tomahawk missiles showed “severe damage and destruction.”

Satellite photographs of the primary target, the Fordo uranium enrichment plant that Iran built under a mountain, showed several holes where a dozen 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrators — one of the largest conventional bombs in the U.S. arsenal — punched deep holes in the rock. The Israeli military’s initial analysis concluded that the site, the target of American and Israeli military planners for more than 26 years, sustained serious damage from the strike but had not been completely destroyed.

But there was also evidence, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the intelligence, that Iran had moved equipment and uranium from the site in recent days. And there was growing evidence that the Iranians, attuned to Mr. Trump’s repeated threats to take military action, had removed 400 kilograms, or roughly 880 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. That is just below the 90 percent that is usually used in nuclear weapons.

The 60-percent enriched fuel had been stored deep inside another nuclear complex, near the ancient capital of Isfahan. Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said by text that the fuel had last been seen by his teams of United Nations inspectors about a week before Israel began its attacks on Iran. In an interview on CNN on Sunday he added that “Iran has made no secret that they have protected this material.”

Asked by text later in the day whether he meant that the fuel stockpile — which is stored in special casks small enough to fit in the trunks of about 10 cars — had been moved, he replied, “I do.” That appeared to be the mystery about the fuel’s fate that Mr. Vance was discussing.

If so, Isfahan would not be the only place where the custodians of the Iranian nuclear program — a subject of nationalistic pride and the symbol of Iran’s ability to defend itself — were trying to move equipment and material out of sight, and harden the Fordo plant to protect what had to stay in place.

Satellite images released by Maxar Technologies at the tunnels leading into the Fordo mountain, taken in the days before the American strike, show 16 cargo trucks positioned near an entrance. An analysis by the Open Source Centre in London suggested that Iran may have been preparing the site for a strike.

It is unclear exactly what, if anything, was removed from the facility.

In fact, there was only so much the Iranians could save. The giant centrifuges that spin at supersonic speeds, purifying uranium, are piped together and bolted to the cement floor. One U.S. official said it would have been unrealistic to completely move equipment out of Fordo after the conflict with Israel began.

The official added that historical documents about the nuclear program were buried in the bowels of the site, likely complicating any efforts in reconstituting it. In coming days, both the Iranians and intelligence agencies expect to learn more about the Natanz enrichment site, which is older, larger and less well protected than Fordo. It was struck by the Israelis repeatedly, and they destroyed an aboveground enrichment center and disrupted the electrical system. Mr. Grossi later said he believed the interruption of the electrical supply could have sent the centrifuges spinning out of control, probably destroying all of them.

How long it would take the Iranians to repair and replace that equipment is unknown; it would probably stretch for years. But Iran is also building a new, deep replacement for Natanz in the south of the city. Officials in Tehran have told the I.A.E. A. that they have not yet opened the plant, so there is nothing to see.

If Iran is truly pursuing a nuclear weapon — which it officially denies — it is taking more time than any nuclear-armed nation in history. The United States developed the Manhattan Project in four years or so, developing the bombs dropped at Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end the war in the Pacific. The Soviet Union conducted its first test in 1949, only four years later. India, Pakistan and Israel all sped the process.

The Iranians have been at it for more than 20 years, and an archive of data stolen from a Tehran warehouse by Israel a number of years ago showed that Iranian engineers were exploring nuclear triggers and other equipment that would only be used to detonate a weapon. That was around 2003, when, according to American intelligence, the engineers received instructions to halt work on weaponization.

Comments by Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent days suggest they believe that work has resumed, though no evidence to support the contention has been made public. If so, the strikes on Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan may only reinforce the view among Iranian leaders that they need a weapon for survival of the government.


History also suggests that diplomacy has usually been more effective than sabotage or military attacks in providing assurances that a country does not pursue atomic weapons. More than 15 years ago, the joint U.S.- Israeli attack on Natanz, using a sophisticated cyber weapon, caused about a fifth of the country’s 5,000 or so centrifuges to blow up.

But the Iranians not only rebuilt, they installed more sophisticated equipment. Before Israel’s attack this month, they had roughly 19,000 centrifuges in operation.

It was only when the Obama administration struck the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that the United States got a fuller picture of its capabilities, thanks to the work of inspectors. And those inspections were choked off — and many security cameras disabled — after Mr. Trump declared the nuclear accord a “disaster” and withdrew from it.

Tehran’s reaction was to scale up centrifuge production, enrich uranium at levels only weapons states need, and stonewall the I.A.E.A.

Now, it is unclear whether the team of I.A.E.A. inspectors who were in the country when the conflict with Israel broke out will be permitted by the Iranian government to resume their inspections, which would include verifying the whereabouts and the safety of that near-bomb-grade uranium.

All international inspections have been suspended during wartime, Iranian officials have said. And even if they were to resume, it was unclear the inspectors could physically gain access to the bombed Fordo underground plant, or the wreckage of the larger enrichment facility at Natanz.

Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration and a former C.I.A. officer, said of the strike: “With the type and amount of munitions used, it will likely set back the Iranian nuclear weapon program two to five years.”

David E. Sanger covers the Trump administration and a range of national security issues. He has been a Times journalist for more than four decades and has written four books on foreign policy and national security challenges.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/...ytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Iran likely filled in tunnels at nuclear sites ahead of U.S. strikes

An analysis of satellite photos by a nuclear nonproliferation group based in Washington shows Iran likely filled in tunnels at its nuclear site at Isfahan ahead of U.S. strikes early Sunday. The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security published satellite images taken by Airbus it assessed showed trucks dumping soil into tunnels at the site on Friday. The U.S. attack likely targeted the tunnel entries, the group said. “At least three of the four tunnel entrances are collapsed,” it said. “The status of the fourth one is unclear.”

Iran also is believed to have filled in tunnels at its underground Fordo enrichment facility before the American strike.

They were given a 60 day timeline. They'd have been foolish not to take advantage of it.

 

[TennesseeJed]

Changed the course of history. Iran is no longer a nuclear threat to the region and the world.

We have no idea if this is history changing or not

To maybe be a touch more accurate (and maybe pedantic) - this changes history, whether it changes it in a good way for mankind or bad is what we don't know.

Even more pedantic - it may alter the future, but, it has no impact on "history".

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Ayatollah Khamenei names his successors in case he is assassinated

Two sources involved in talks told The Atlantic that officials are now contemplating deposing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but said that's just 'one idea' among many such 'plots'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

-Iranian officials would like to remove the 86 yr old Ayatollah meanwhile the Iranian Rev Guard has sustained huge hits as apparently Israel has not stopped in their bombing campaign

 

[BobbyLayne]

Changed the course of history. Iran is no longer a nuclear threat to the region and the world.

We have no idea if this is history changing or not

To maybe be a touch more accurate (and maybe pedantic) - this changes history, whether it changes it in a good way for mankind or bad is what we don't know.

Even more pedantic - it may alter the future, but, it has no impact on "history".

We have always been at war with Eastasia.

Exactly 90 days ago we had congressional testimony from the DNI “The Intelligence Community believes Iran has no nuclear weapon capability and the Supreme Leader of Ayatollah K has not reversed the 2003 decision to suspend pursuit of nuclear weapons.”

History changes fast these days, eh.

They were given a 60 day timeline. They'd have been foolish not to take advantage of it.

We’ve had 7 years to replace the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (aka Iran Nuclear Deal.) Maybe we have concepts of a plan?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

David Muir ABC Nightly News: "Major damage at all sites".

Seems universally accepted by the normal news agencies. I didn't hear that ABC had anyone on site to crawl down into the facilities to make sure though.

There are two arcs on covering the news no matter what the issue is or how the current administration unrolls their policies
One of them is a doom n gloom outlook and an end of the world "what if" segments

I saw a report yesterday and maybe it was linked here that Russia was ready to hand over nuke heads to Iran
Simultaneously the NYT has a headline saying countries that are more friendly to Iran were not stepping up to help them
-Which one is an avg American citizen going to believe? I texted both screenshots to people I talk to offline to show them the conundrum

It's unfair and one of the reasons I try not to go off the rails when I see people voicing opinions that I don't share or even worry about
My wife and I travel by train on the Brightline from WPB to MIA 1-2 times a week and I don't think twice about a terrorist attack on them

There is a segment of the population and a larger portion of the news outlets that would find fault with anything the current Administration puts forth
I appreciate your post Peggy, wish i could talk to you more but I want to keep the integrity of the thread as JB requests.

@Jayrod, definitely see what you posted about a page or two back
Love everyone, hope others reconsider their stance/POV

-On a lighter note, I really enjoyed driving around Hobe Sound/Stuart the last couple mornings and just realizing how lucky we all are to have the opportunities we have, to be able to get up daily in a free country and put our best foot forward. Yes there are problems galore but when you look at some of the other parts of the World, I just thank my lucky stars. And it's not like I think the USA is so superior, I just wish other people could enjoy some of the things we have here in America. Now if you'll excuse me I need to go rail in the pet peeves thread.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Follow Reuters and/or BBC on this event. You don't have to deal with the US news media. This might be THE most important pieces of advice my pops has bestowed upon me in terms of "quality of life and seek of trusted information". I hear good things about 1440, but haven't been there to explore yet.

 

[Hawks64]

Follow Reuters and/or BBC on this event. You don't have to deal with the US news media. This might be THE most important pieces of advice my pops has bestowed upon me in terms of "quality of life and seek of trusted information". I hear good things about 1440, but haven't been there to explore yet.

Their daily email digest is great.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Follow Reuters and/or BBC on this event. You don't have to deal with the US news media. This might be THE most important pieces of advice my pops has bestowed upon me in terms of "quality of life and seek of trusted information". I hear good things about 1440, but haven't been there to explore yet.

Their daily email digest is great.

I need to check it out. The others I like because they keep mostly away from the speculation, or if they speculate, they account for several of the scenarios and not just one.

 

[beer 30]

Follow Reuters and/or BBC on this event. You don't have to deal with the US news media. This might be THE most important pieces of advice my pops has bestowed upon me in terms of "quality of life and seek of trusted information". I hear good things about 1440, but haven't been there to explore yet.

Their daily email digest is great.

I need to check it out. The others I like because they keep mostly away from the speculation, or if they speculate, they account for several of the scenarios and not just one.

Daily Mail for the win boys, trust me.