Is Kitna a reach at 5:1? (1 Viewer)

[PSILOCYBIN]

W/ those of us with the first pick we end up with LT. I have a draft strategy plotted out and wondered, from you experts out there if you think 5:1 for Kitna is a reach? Mcnabb could very well be available at that spot as well.

Who likely won't be avail at 5:1:

Manning

Palmer

Bulger

Brees

Brady

So......is Kitna a reach and given Mcnabb's recent injury history, who would you rather have and why?

 

[einstein2u]

Mcnabb.....

kitna at 5.1 is too early imo.

 

[LionsFan78]

Depends....

1) Scoring? If 6 pt. TD passes, QB's carry a bit more value

2) League tendencies? I would wait until the draft to make that call. How fast are QB's flying off the shelves? If you can say for sure that he won't be there at your next pick, then grab him.

With my scoring last year, Kitna finished 6th overall in QB scoring. Looking at them this year, I truly believe that Kitna will have a much better year, even if the TD-INT ratio doesn't improve much. That said, I would take McNabb over Kitna, but that's just me. I enjoy swinging for the fences, and if McNabb is there at 5.1 I'd jump on him.

 

[The Kansas Comet]

I'd rather have McNabb - his production is too good for me to ignore. Kitna's in a great situation, but hasn't proven he can produce like McNabb yet. He doesn't merit a pick at 5.01 in my opinion. If you get McNabb, it means you might have to draft your QB2 earlier than anticipated.

 

[shredhead]

Mcnabb.....kitna at 5.1 is too early imo.

Depends on how bad you want him. He ain't gonna be there at 6.12 so if you want him bad enough then you have to pull the trigger. That's the bad part of drafting on the turns. I personally wouldn't take Kitna that early and would opt for McNabb at that position. But it is your call.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

While I would say it is a slight reach...

If you want him and think he will do well...

And you arent sure he will last 22 more selections back to your next pick at 6.12, take him.

McNabb is a monster - with a nasty habit of not being around come playoff time. He hasnt produced at playoff time since 2003.

 

[LionsFan78]

While I would say it is a slight reach...

If you want him and think he will do well...

And you arent sure he will last 22 more selections back to your next pick at 6.12, take him.

McNabb is a monster - with a nasty habit of not being around come playoff time. He hasnt produced at playoff time since 2003.

Bingo right there. This is your team, draft the team you FEEL will get it done for you. When it comes down to it, who gives a damn if your leaguemates think you reached on your fifth round pick.

 

[MDSkinner]

How many teams in the league?

I think if it is a 10 team league, that is probably a bit too high at the 50-51 pick.

If it is a 12 team league or higher, I do not see him as much of a stretch as 60-61. However, I think McNabb is probably less of a stretch, and would still go with him should he be there at that point.

McNabb was able to show last year what he could do with basically all of the same weapons that he has this year. You can always worry about injury, but I would rather gamble on injury than on production. If McNabb stays healthy, his numbers should be around the top 5. With Kitna, if you buy into the Martz system (which I do at some level) he "could" put up those numbers as well. But there are a lot more Question marks around Kitna than there are around McNabb at this point.

 

[brettdj]

I prefer Kitna over McNabb, weapons and coach.

 

[skillz]

I don't think he is a reach at that point although I think he has a much better chance to be around a round or two later where you can grab him then. If you really think he won't then I don't have an issue with taking him at 5.01 provided Manning, Palmer, Brady, Brees, Bulger, and McNabb are already off the board.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Would I rather have Donovan McNabb or Jon Kitna? Donovan McNabb? Jon Kitna? That seems like one of those questions that answers itself doesn't it?

 

[Colin Dowling]

Would I rather have Donovan McNabb or Jon Kitna? Donovan McNabb? Jon Kitna? That seems like one of those questions that answers itself doesn't it?

Both guys have the same number of fantasy finishes inside the top-10 over their careers....didn't think of that, did you?

 

[Sleeper 43]

Romo / Kitna / Cutler in the 7/8

 

[IGKYA!!!]

Romo / Kitna / Cutler in the 7/8

 

[Gopher State]

Romo / Kitna / Cutler in the 7/8

looks about right for the above three

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Would I rather have Donovan McNabb or Jon Kitna? Donovan McNabb? Jon Kitna? That seems like one of those questions that answers itself doesn't it?

Both guys have the same number of fantasy finishes inside the top-10 over their careers....didn't think of that, did you?

Yeah but McNabb's been in the top 5 more often. He's been in the top 20 more often also than Jon Kitna and that's with playing partial seasons. On a per game basis he absolutely destroys Jon Kitna.Donovan McNabb can almost win games for you single handedly. Jon Kitna can't do that. Hell with all the turnovers he has he can flat out lose games for you that you were already winning.People are talking Kitna up a little too much. It's times like this where you just have to go to good old common sense.

 

[vichawkfan]

I took him at 5.05....had to. The already mentioned were gone, along with Romo, Rottencheeseburger, Hasselbeck.....so I basically got him as the 9th QB off the board. I did draft Vince in the 6th just in case.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Ya, he's a reach at 5:1.

His ADP is not that high and even if he does produce enough this year to justify you picking him at 5:1, that's not the point.

The point is....if you make a habit or a point of drafting players ahead of where you COULD get them in a draft, in the end you'll have a losing team.

If someone in your league reaches for him.......then so be it. It's certainly possible that he doesn't have the year you and everyone expects or saw last year and that guy did you a favor.

I happen to like Kitna this year but won't reach for him. Every player won't be reached for in your draft and SOMEONE will fall to you at some point that will represent value.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I took him at 5.05....had to. The already mentioned were gone, along with Romo, Rottencheeseburger, Hasselbeck.....so I basically got him as the 9th QB off the board. I did draft Vince in the 6th just in case.

That's a mistake...... taking 2 Qb's in the first 6 rounds of your draft gives your opponents the edge.You would have been fine with taking Young in the 7th round and just letting Kitna go.If ALL of those QB's are gone already........there MUST be tremendous value in the WR positions as RB's go. I would have loved to see what WR's were left, I bet some solid ones.

 

[PSILOCYBIN]

I prefer Kitna over McNabb, weapons and coach.

Whis is precisely why I might reach at 5.1 and strongly consider him over Mcnabb

 

[duaneok66]

While I would say it is a slight reach...

If you want him and think he will do well...

And you arent sure he will last 22 more selections back to your next pick at 6.12, take him.

McNabb is a monster - with a nasty habit of not being around come playoff time. He hasnt produced at playoff time since 2003.

Bingo right there. This is your team, draft the team you FEEL will get it done for you. When it comes down to it, who gives a damn if your leaguemates think you reached on your fifth round pick.

agreed . . . it's NOT a reach if he won't be around when you pick again . . . it's not like the guy is passing to chunps, that WR crew is DEEP . . .

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

While I would say it is a slight reach...

If you want him and think he will do well...

And you arent sure he will last 22 more selections back to your next pick at 6.12, take him.

McNabb is a monster - with a nasty habit of not being around come playoff time. He hasnt produced at playoff time since 2003.

Bingo right there. This is your team, draft the team you FEEL will get it done for you. When it comes down to it, who gives a damn if your leaguemates think you reached on your fifth round pick.

agreed . . . it's NOT a reach if he won't be around when you pick again . . . it's not like the guy is passing to chunps, that WR crew is DEEP . . .

It's not about what your league mates think at all. It's about if you know you are reaching.........and it's not about this one player.

If you reach for Kitna, you'll reach for other players because that's the kind of drafter you turn out to be. You have to be disciplined enough to not reach. If Kitna is gone, there will be another QB in the draft that will represent value, let it come to you.

And, the other point I was making which is even a worse mistake than taking Kitna to early is taking 2 QB's in the first 6 rounds.

If you reach for Kitna, he damn well better produce or at least you have to figure on that. You can't take a backup QB in the 6th around in case he doesn't. If you're that UNSURE that he's gonna produce where you have to pick him at 5.01......why would you pick him at all then? That doens't make sense.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

There is no way Kitna is a reach after the top 5 - 6 QB's are off the board. Determining if he is a reach at 5.01 depends on your league. Like others have said, if the top QB left on your board provides value at the 5.01 spot, take him, because he probably won't be there at 6.12.

 

[whodeywhodey]

I think that it does absolutely depend on your league and your league members. In one of my less competitive leagues there are long QB runs that happen around round 5. And at 6 pts per TD having a top 5 QB can really help you. I think that the fifth round is on the early side of normal but still acceptable. In this said league I drafted Kitna at 6.12 and felt lucky that he was still there - but this was a couple weeks ago. He'd probably go a full round earlier now if the draft was held again.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

There is no way Kitna is a reach after the top 5 - 6 QB's are off the board. Determining if he is a reach at 5.01 depends on your league. Like others have said, if the top QB left on your board provides value at the 5.01 spot, take him, because he probably won't be there at 6.12.

I slightly disagree with this........in general, I agree with if you can figure that you can't draft "X" player next round because you think he's gonna be gone, take him now.But I think this is one of those rare times you can't. Drafting at 5.01 is different than drafting at 5.06 thru 9 where you get to pick again sooner than later.You can overpay for a player you think won't be there in 20 some picks. Just because he won't be there in 20 picks doesn't make it a good pick now.There are many examples and 1 is let's say Gates.If I'm picking at 1.01 and it gets back to me at 2.12 and 3.01. Let's say it's not a tight end friendly scoring.......most would consider taking Gates at 2.12 and 3.01 as a reach. But you know if you don't take him there, he'll certainly be gone at 4.12 and 5.01.So, taking him at 2.12 knowing he'll be gone does NOT make that a good pick and to me poor rationale.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think that it does absolutely depend on your league and your league members. In one of my less competitive leagues there are long QB runs that happen around round 5. And at 6 pts per TD having a top 5 QB can really help you. I think that the fifth round is on the early side of normal but still acceptable. In this said league I drafted Kitna at 6.12 and felt lucky that he was still there - but this was a couple weeks ago. He'd probably go a full round earlier now if the draft was held again.

It always depends on league size, scoring etc...... for the most part, unless it's specifically mentioned in the initial post or Title, people generally will assume 12 teams and in this posters case 6 point Td's.I always assume we're dealing with competent players in your leagues. If you are not....then you can adjust as such during your draft but it's nearly impossible to talk with fantasy football intelligence if you aren't assuming that you're playing with people that know what they're doing to a certain degree.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

There is no way Kitna is a reach after the top 5 - 6 QB's are off the board. Determining if he is a reach at 5.01 depends on your league. Like others have said, if the top QB left on your board provides value at the 5.01 spot, take him, because he probably won't be there at 6.12.

I slightly disagree with this........in general, I agree with if you can figure that you can't draft "X" player next round because you think he's gonna be gone, take him now.But I think this is one of those rare times you can't. Drafting at 5.01 is different than drafting at 5.06 thru 9 where you get to pick again sooner than later.

You can overpay for a player you think won't be there in 20 some picks. Just because he won't be there in 20 picks doesn't make it a good pick now.

There are many examples and 1 is let's say Gates.

If I'm picking at 1.01 and it gets back to me at 2.12 and 3.01. Let's say it's not a tight end friendly scoring.......most would consider taking Gates at 2.12 and 3.01 as a reach. But you know if you don't take him there, he'll certainly be gone at 4.12 and 5.01.

So, taking him at 2.12 knowing he'll be gone does NOT make that a good pick and to me poor rationale.

I never said that just because a player won't be there come your next pick you should take him. I said, if a player presents good value at that point of the draft, "and" he won't be there with your next pick, go ahead and take him. It's all about value and not reaching. But at the corners of a draft sometimes you do have to take a player a little earlier then you may in the middle, just because the likelyhood of them being there on your next pick are slimmer.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

While I would say it is a slight reach...

If you want him and think he will do well...

And you arent sure he will last 22 more selections back to your next pick at 6.12, take him.

McNabb is a monster - with a nasty habit of not being around come playoff time. He hasnt produced at playoff time since 2003.

Bingo right there. This is your team, draft the team you FEEL will get it done for you. When it comes down to it, who gives a damn if your leaguemates think you reached on your fifth round pick.

agreed . . . it's NOT a reach if he won't be around when you pick again . . . it's not like the guy is passing to chunps, that WR crew is DEEP . . .

Quoted the wrong one.....here it is.

 

[Chumpson]

I agree with Cowboy here, you have to wait, if he goes in the 5th then there are other positions screaming value that you need to gobble up, you can get someone else close at QB later.

As for Kitna--Grabbing him today at pick 93. FYI

 

[Colin Dowling]

Would I rather have Donovan McNabb or Jon Kitna? Donovan McNabb? Jon Kitna? That seems like one of those questions that answers itself doesn't it?

Both guys have the same number of fantasy finishes inside the top-10 over their careers....didn't think of that, did you?

Yeah but McNabb's been in the top 5 more often. He's been in the top 20 more often also than Jon Kitna and that's with playing partial seasons. On a per game basis he absolutely destroys Jon Kitna.Donovan McNabb can almost win games for you single handedly. Jon Kitna can't do that. Hell with all the turnovers he has he can flat out lose games for you that you were already winning.People are talking Kitna up a little too much. It's times like this where you just have to go to good old common sense.

Good points all. But McNabb isn't winning you anything on the bench. Dude has missed 20 games in the last 5 seasons. He has missed Fantasy Playoff month (wk 13-16) three times in the last five seasons. I am not a big believer in the idea that previous injury predicts future injury, but McNabb is a compelling case.

 

[LionsFan78]

Let me add just a slight twist to the original question. Now, I'm talking about Kitna here, not whether he should go over McNabb.

What if you know 100 percent that you won't get Kitna at the 7/8 round level? Do you still reach for him at the 5/6 round?

What constitutes a "reach"? (A term I despise by the way) Is grabbing a player that you know 100% won't be there when you pick again considered a reach?

 

[Blackstar]

Kitna isn't a REACH at 5.1, considering what QBs do in Martz Offense.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Let me add just a slight twist to the original question. Now, I'm talking about Kitna here, not whether he should go over McNabb.What if you know 100 percent that you won't get Kitna at the 7/8 round level? Do you still reach for him at the 5/6 round?What constitutes a "reach"? (A term I despise by the way) Is grabbing a player that you know 100% won't be there when you pick again considered a reach?

It's not a reach if you expect him to finish higher then the slot in which you select him.

 

[shakeybarn]

1. A career year last year

2. Look at the Detroit passing schedule the first half of the year.

'nuff said.

 

[Colin Dowling]

1. A career year last year2. Look at the Detroit passing schedule the first half of the year.'nuff said.

1. Why do you think he'll regress? It's not like last year was WAY better then 2003 and even 1999. Kitna has been top-10 for three different teams seperated by at least 2 years on the bench in between each occurrance. I'd say that's rather versatile.2. Look at the guys he gets to throw to and the guy calling the plays.

 

[ceo3west]

Would I rather have Donovan McNabb or Jon Kitna? Donovan McNabb? Jon Kitna? That seems like one of those questions that answers itself doesn't it?

Both guys have the same number of fantasy finishes inside the top-10 over their careers....didn't think of that, did you?

This has to be one of the most mind-boggling facts I've seen on these boards. Nice job digging this one up Colin.

 

[j3r3m3y]

While I would say it is a slight reach...

If you want him and think he will do well...

And you arent sure he will last 22 more selections back to your next pick at 6.12, take him.

McNabb is a monster - with a nasty habit of not being around come playoff time. He hasnt produced at playoff time since 2003.

Bingo right there. This is your team, draft the team you FEEL will get it done for you. When it comes down to it, who gives a damn if your leaguemates think you reached on your fifth round pick.

agreed . . . it's NOT a reach if he won't be around when you pick again . . . it's not like the guy is passing to chunps, that WR crew is DEEP . . .

It's not about what your league mates think at all. It's about if you know you are reaching.........and it's not about this one player.

If you reach for Kitna, you'll reach for other players because that's the kind of drafter you turn out to be. You have to be disciplined enough to not reach. If Kitna is gone, there will be another QB in the draft that will represent value, let it come to you.

This assumes ADP is accurate. The reality is we won't know if it is a "reach" until after the season. If he justifies his draft position it won't be. If you think he will outperform his ADP, and he wont be there at your next pick take him. Time will tell if it is a reach or not but the only way to really get ahead is to go against group think and be right.If you follow group think with every single pick you might as well just click "auto draft" and see what team you end up with.

I would rather pick my own team, right or wrong. Now I am not saying take someone a couple rounds early, that's just silly, but if it is a case where he won't be there the next time you pick make it your team.

 

[ceo3west]

Let me add just a slight twist to the original question. Now, I'm talking about Kitna here, not whether he should go over McNabb.What if you know 100 percent that you won't get Kitna at the 7/8 round level? Do you still reach for him at the 5/6 round?What constitutes a "reach"? (A term I despise by the way) Is grabbing a player that you know 100% won't be there when you pick again considered a reach?

I don't see how Kitna could be considered a reach at this slot. He finished QB6 last year, and averaged 1.8 pts/gm less than the #2 QB Drew Brees (using FBG scoring). On top of that, his situation has improved this year.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Would I rather have Donovan McNabb or Jon Kitna? Donovan McNabb? Jon Kitna? That seems like one of those questions that answers itself doesn't it?

Both guys have the same number of fantasy finishes inside the top-10 over their careers....didn't think of that, did you?

This has to be one of the most mind-boggling facts I've seen on these boards. Nice job digging this one up Colin.

Top 10 for QB's just means the top third of the league.Top 10 for other positions is a little more impressive.

 

[kensat30]

I'd wait to the 7th and grab one of:

Kitna/Romo/Rothburger

PS- If I felt it was necessary to jump on those guys that early. If a ton of QBs go before the 7th (8-10), I go for it and make sure I get a guy I'm happy with. Value only makes sense if it is a guy you really want.

I'd also consider Palmer and maybe Brees at the end of 4 depending on scoring system.

 

[Judge Smails]

If your league penalizes for INT's, like mine does (-2) - I go McNabb..

 

[Bristol]

W/ those of us with the first pick we end up with LT. I have a draft strategy plotted out and wondered, from you experts out there if you think 5:1 for Kitna is a reach? Mcnabb could very well be available at that spot as well.Who likely won't be avail at 5:1:ManningPalmerBulgerBreesBradySo......is Kitna a reach and given Mcnabb's recent injury history, who would you rather have and why?

Your first mistake is going into the draft with a strategy. Let the draft come to you. Value always rises to the top!

 

[patriarchz]

There is no way Kitna is a reach after the top 5 - 6 QB's are off the board. Determining if he is a reach at 5.01 depends on your league. Like others have said, if the top QB left on your board provides value at the 5.01 spot, take him, because he probably won't be there at 6.12.

I have to agree here. He threw for over 4000 yards and 20 TDs last year. He's only gonna get better with Calvin Johnson and a better OLine. I don't think Kitna at 5.1 is a reach.But Kitna over McNabb... that is a tough call.

 

[Unlucky]

Not a reach in a 12 team or larger league. Here's why:

1. You won't get him at 6.12

2. His value as the #5 or so QB is worth that of the 49th best overall player.

As long as you are confident in your rankings, and he won't be there with your next pick, then pick him. It's not a reach if you can't get him later.

 

[Chaka]

What does 5.1 mean? What QB # are you talking about? Is Kitna the #6th QB off the board in this scenario? It will be a big problem choosing between him and McNabb. I lean towards McNabb.

With or without T.O. he is consistently one of the top 3 fantasy QBs in PPG and I don't consider him a greater injury risk behind his pro bowl line than Kitna who already has back spasms and plays behind the same line that gave up 69 sacks last season. And isn't Damien Woody dinged up too?

 

[bdawk20]

Like all players, but even more so due in this case, Kitna's value is totally dependent on the scoring system. In our 6pt/TD 1/25 pass , but -2 INT league, I think Kitna will be a reall boom or bust player, b/c of his horrid TD/INT ratio. Having said that, in a format like ours, I do feel that it is hard to win without a top QB, so the idea of reaching is not a mistake. However, Kitna would be way behind McNabb in this format. (BTW McNabb will never make it past the 4th round in our draft)

In a high scoring 6pt/TD QB format, but one that penalizes INTs harshly, the QB position will stratify out more, so is waiting for the late round value QBs like Romo, Big Ben, Vince still a viable strategy. I think a reach may be in order.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

What does 5.1 mean? What QB # are you talking about? Is Kitna the #6th QB off the board in this scenario? It will be a big problem choosing between him and McNabb. I lean towards McNabb.With or without T.O. he is consistently one of the top 3 fantasy QBs in PPG and I don't consider him a greater injury risk behind his pro bowl line than Kitna who already has back spasms and plays behind the same line that gave up 69 sacks last season. And isn't Damien Woody dinged up too?

You dont consider McNabb and greater injury risk then Kitna? wowIt's hard to argue with McNabbs monster ppg tally, but McNabb=Kitna in the durability deptartment? wow

 

[Phurfur]

Depends....1) Scoring? If 6 pt. TD passes, QB's carry a bit more value2) League tendencies? I would wait until the draft to make that call. How fast are QB's flying off the shelves? If you can say for sure that he won't be there at your next pick, then grab him.With my scoring last year, Kitna finished 6th overall in QB scoring. Looking at them this year, I truly believe that Kitna will have a much better year, even if the TD-INT ratio doesn't improve much. That said, I would take McNabb over Kitna, but that's just me. I enjoy swinging for the fences, and if McNabb is there at 5.1 I'd jump on him.

There is no way Kitna is a reach after the top 5 - 6 QB's are off the board. Determining if he is a reach at 5.01 depends on your league. Like others have said, if the top QB left on your board provides value at the 5.01 spot, take him, because he probably won't be there at 6.12.

These are the correct answers! Every draft is different, ADP is a good guide but by no means accurate for every draft.

 

[Chaka]

What does 5.1 mean? What QB # are you talking about? Is Kitna the #6th QB off the board in this scenario? It will be a big problem choosing between him and McNabb. I lean towards McNabb.With or without T.O. he is consistently one of the top 3 fantasy QBs in PPG and I don't consider him a greater injury risk behind his pro bowl line than Kitna who already has back spasms and plays behind the same line that gave up 69 sacks last season. And isn't Damien Woody dinged up too?

You dont consider McNabb and greater injury risk then Kitna? wowIt's hard to argue with McNabbs monster ppg tally, but McNabb=Kitna in the durability deptartment? wow

I don't think it is that big of a surprise. Martz loves to run deep patterns with his receivers and historically his QBs absorb a lot of hits.McNabb has a much more significant injury history but until I know that Kitna isn't going to be running for his life all season I see them as equal risks.I also am not sold on Kitna's job security in general. He has not proven himself to be a consistent player in his career nor is he ever been particularly effective in the red zone and I think a bad start by the Lions could lead to his benching for Orlovsky.They are both risks but I like McNabb's proven production.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

What does 5.1 mean? What QB # are you talking about? Is Kitna the #6th QB off the board in this scenario? It will be a big problem choosing between him and McNabb. I lean towards McNabb.With or without T.O. he is consistently one of the top 3 fantasy QBs in PPG and I don't consider him a greater injury risk behind his pro bowl line than Kitna who already has back spasms and plays behind the same line that gave up 69 sacks last season. And isn't Damien Woody dinged up too?

You dont consider McNabb and greater injury risk then Kitna? wowIt's hard to argue with McNabbs monster ppg tally, but McNabb=Kitna in the durability deptartment? wow

I don't think it is that big of a surprise. Martz loves to run deep patterns with his receivers and historically his QBs absorb a lot of hits.McNabb has a much more significant injury history but until I know that Kitna isn't going to be running for his life all season I see them as equal risks.I also am not sold on Kitna's job security in general. He has not proven himself to be a consistent player in his career nor is he ever been particularly effective in the red zone and I think a bad start by the Lions could lead to his benching for Orlovsky.They are both risks but I like McNabb's proven production.

Orlovsky? He isnt even the back up. Its JT O'Sullivan. And neither back up is the future, so getting them reps isnt the issue. Stanton is on the IR, otherwise you would have said he was guy who would get reps.