So if you were a betting individual (1 Viewer)

[Snotbubbles]

O.K
Some winners some losers
Who are we liking in The Divisional Round?
As of Wednesday morning on Betus:

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs -9 o/u 42

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions -9 1/2 o/u 55

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles -6 o/u 44

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills even o/u 51

Chiefs spread and under
Lions buy the spread up to +13.5 and over
Rams money line no bet on o/u
Ravens and the over

$20 parlay on this pays $3,123.81
Sweet

Buying that Lions spread up is probably the riskiest part, but IMO Commanders haven't beaten a good/healthy team yet this season and most of their wins seem to be "team of destiny/gift from the God's" type wins. Not taking anything away from them, every team gets lucky now and again and a win is a win. But they barely eeked out those wins against the Saints, the Falcons, the Cowboys lol... A great team wins those games convincingly. I think they are getting stomped by the Lions, who don't take their foot off the gas even with a lead. They've averaged just under 36 pts a game the past 8 games.

22-17 over atl
30-27 over car
19-17 over lv

The objective is to win and both KC and Wash have been able to do that even in tight games which is a mark of resillience, imo. Wash is avg 29 pts/gm their last 6 btw.

Betting trends say the play in this game is: WAS & UNDER and/or DET ML

 

[kyoun1e]

Finding it very difficult not to take BALT -1. If Harbaugh let's Jackson loose on the run I have a hard time seeing BUF D being able to deal with both him and Henry. They blew them out previously for a reason. However, since seemingly everyone is picking BALT I'm sure BUF will win.

Something tells me Daniels may make DET sweat a little. Don't think DET's iffy/injured D will be able to make Daniels look like a deer in the headlights like S. Darnold. WASH +9.5.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

BAL -1.5
WAS +8.5
HOU +8.5
DET/WAS OVER 55.5

 

[Wingnut]

Chiefs moneyline
J Daniels 9+ rush att
L Jackson 9+ rush att
L Jackson under 28 pass att
Henry anytime td

+675 boosted

 

[Keith R]

With the snow prediction for Philly, I change my one bet from the over to Philly minus the points. Already placed

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I like all the underdogs this week except BUF.

It’s a low line and I think BAL covers the 1. It’s basically a pick-em.

 

[Drake Hater]

WAS & UNDER

I'm one that took the under

 

[Rubi]

I'll lay the points with Kansa City and Detroit
Take the points with The Rams
Hope for a win
Just sit back and enjoy Baltimore and Buffalo

 

[Zeppelin]

I'll lay the points with Kansa City and Detroit
Take the points with The Rams
Hope for a win
Just sit back and enjoy Baltimore and Buffalo

This is me but I do think the Bills will win.

 

[Rubi]

So who gets in a "squares" pool for The Super Bowl?
What's your buy in?
I usually get in a couple $10 pools
Few years ago a buddy and I would get in a $350 pool
Did well over about a 10 year span in that one
What's your story?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So who gets in a "squares" pool for The Super Bowl?
What's your buy in?
I usually get in a couple $10 pools
Few years ago a buddy and I would get in a $350 pool
Did well over about a 10 year span in that one
What's your story?

I have 2x $100 squares.

Numbers randomized for every quarter, which I love.

Bigger payouts at 1/2 & F.

I have (NFC/AFC)
1st - 6/7
2nd - 3/0
3rd - 0/6
F - 2/1

And

1st - 8/6
2nd - 8/3
3rd - 3/3
F - 7/2

Impossible to know what’s a good set.

At a glance I do like 3/3, 3-0, 0/6

But crazy stuff always happens. Safety, MPAT, go for 2 fail, etc.

The only good numbers are the ones that win.

 

[Ack88]

Commanders money line.
Game will be close and Detroit defense is vulnerable.

 

[Rubi]

So today what are we thinking?

Given the weather reports

Maybe:

Eagles minus the points and under?

Ravens/Bills still over?

 

[Wingnut]

Commanders money line.
Game will be close and Detroit defense is vulnerable.

I hope you played this.

 

[Drake Hater]

Eagles minus the points and under?

I like the Eagles but I'm not sure on the o/u. Weather doesn't look terrible for passing does it?

 

[Drake Hater]

Anyone taking the Bills today? Ravens have looked great versus marginal to bad teams. Not sure about them going into Buffalo and coming out on top.

 

[TheAristocrat]

Fun bet:

Saquon longest rush 19.5
Henry longest rush 20.5

+245

 

[Drake Hater]

Fun bet:

Saquon longest rush 19.5
Henry longest rush 20.5

+245

Halfway there

 

[Ack88]

Commanders money line.
Game will be close and Detroit defense is vulnerable.

I hope you played this.

Thanks. Yes.

 

[metoo]

4/4. Bills, KC, Fake Commanders, Philly.

 

[rockaction]

Impossible to know what’s a good set.

I actually read an article a few years back about the probability of each number. It is the 0s., 3s, 7s that are the ones that come up the most.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Impossible to know what’s a good set.

I actually read an article a few years back about the probability of each number. It is the 0s., 3s, 7s that are the ones that come up the most.

Yeah, except for literally every single time I’ve had them.

I’m in a weekly roll-over MNF pool with 2 squares.

4 years now. I have never won a single quarter. And I’ve had 3-3, 0-3, 0-7, 7-0, 7-7, 7-1, 0-0

All numbers I thought were great. There’d be 2 safeties and a MPAT for a 6-4 score.

Except of course when I have 6-4.



The only good numbers are the ones you win with.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

So who gets in a "squares" pool for The Super Bowl?
What's your buy in?
I usually get in a couple $10 pools
Few years ago a buddy and I would get in a $350 pool
Did well over about a 10 year span in that one
What's your story?

I have 2x $100 squares.

Numbers randomized for every quarter, which I love.

Bigger payouts at 1/2 & F.

I have (NFC/AFC)
1st - 6/7
2nd - 3/0
3rd - 0/6
F - 2/1

And

1st - 8/6
2nd - 8/3
3rd - 3/3
F - 7/2

Impossible to know what’s a good set.

At a glance I do like 3/3, 3-0, 0/6

But crazy stuff always happens. Safety, MPAT, go for 2 fail, etc.

The only good numbers are the ones that win.

Good stuff.

 

[TheAristocrat]

Fun bet:

Saquon longest rush 19.5
Henry longest rush 20.5

+245

Halfway there

Dear John Harbaugh,

#### you.

TheAristocrat

(Still a fun bet)

 

[kyoun1e]

KC opened -1 and now it's -2.

Think the Bills finally break through. BUF +2.

 

[Golden Gopher]

So who gets in a "squares" pool for The Super Bowl?
What's your buy in?
I usually get in a couple $10 pools
Few years ago a buddy and I would get in a $350 pool
Did well over about a 10 year span in that one
What's your story?

I have 2x $100 squares.

Numbers randomized for every quarter, which I love.

Bigger payouts at 1/2 & F.

I have (NFC/AFC)
1st - 6/7
2nd - 3/0
3rd - 0/6
F - 2/1

And

1st - 8/6
2nd - 8/3
3rd - 3/3
F - 7/2

Impossible to know what’s a good set.

At a glance I do like 3/3, 3-0, 0/6

But crazy stuff always happens. Safety, MPAT, go for 2 fail, etc.

The only good numbers are the ones that win.

Exactly. Last year 5 and 2 seemed to be the worst pair of numbers. Until it ended up winning.

 

[TheAristocrat]

KC opened -1 and now it's -2.

Think the Bills finally break through. BUF +2.

This is currently my thinking. Full disclosure, I'm an idiot.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

KC opened -1 and now it's -2.

Think the Bills finally break through. BUF +2.

This is currently my thinking. Full disclosure, I'm an idiot.

I bet Bills ML

Disclaimer: every single time I’ve bet against Patrick Mahomes I have lost. This dates back many years.

Surely this is my year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Came out way ahead for the weekend on my BUF bets & a couple parlays, but I just wanna say FU to Kickers.

I was right about all of my wagers except BAL. And I changed later bets to either tease BAL or get points with BUF.

But for kickers, that is. I missed on 3 parlays because of MPAT & MFG. Elliott with 2 MPAT, missed the cover by .5
Fairbairn’s 2 MFG - either one they cover the +8.5

I hate kickers with the burning intensity of 1000 suns.

 

[Rubi]

Came out way ahead for the weekend on my BUF bets & a couple parlays, but I just wanna say FU to Kickers.

I was right about all of my wagers except BAL. And I changed later bets to either tease BAL or get points with BUF.

But for kickers, that is. I missed on 3 parlays because of MPAT & MFG. Elliott with 2 MPAT, missed the cover by .5
Fairbairn’s 2 MFG - either one they cover the +8.5

I hate kickers with the burning intensity of 1000 suns.

That's pretty intense

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That's pretty intense

Except Aubrey, who I love like the child I never had.

The irony since he’s a Cowboy - don’t try to understand. It is what it is.

 

[Rubi]

Leaning Buffalo M/L
Commanders with the points,seeing + 5 1/2 and +6
Talk me into or out of it

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Leaning Buffalo M/L
Commanders with the points,seeing + 5 1/2 and +6
Talk me into or out of it

That's exactly what I was looking at. Buffalo beat KC this year, albeit at home. Washington generally keeps games close.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Leaning Buffalo M/L
Commanders with the points,seeing + 5 1/2 and +6
Talk me into or out of it

That's exactly what I was looking at. Buffalo beat KC this year, albeit at home. Washington generally keeps games close.

Posted this in the PHI/WAS gameday thread: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/n...ds-stats-notes-action-network-betting-preview

Most of the trends favor a PHI cover. Some that I think are relevant:

The Commanders will be the 8th team since 2000 to enter a playoff game on the 4th game or later of a road trip. Those previous teams are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Commanders own the NFL’s longest SU win streak at 7 games, their longest win streak since their 2013 playoff loss to the Seahawks.

Overall, 15 teams have entered a Conference Championship on a 7+ game SU win streak since 2004 — they are 4-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.5 PPG.

Six seeds are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in the Conference Championship and Super Bowl since 1990. When they are +4 or higher in either of these rounds, they are 0-4 SU/ATS. The 2006 Steelers beating the Broncos are the only 6-seed underdogs to win in either of these rounds.

Losing as a 6+ pt favorite doesn’t happen often in the Conference Championship. Favorites on the close of that big are 13-3 SU since 2002-03. Here are the three losses:

• 2022 Mahomes, -7 vs. CIN
• 2013 Brady, -8 vs. BAL
• 2008 Rodgers, -7.5 vs. NYG

Shawn Hochuli is listed as the main official for Commanders/Eagles. Philly is 5-0 SU under Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts with Hochuli as the main official.

Hochuli has refereed four Washington games, and they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games.

 

[Wingnut]

Leaning Buffalo M/L
Commanders with the points,seeing + 5 1/2 and +6
Talk me into or out of it

That's exactly what I was looking at. Buffalo beat KC this year, albeit at home. Washington generally keeps games close.

I may jump on this as well.

 

[3 hour lunch]

I wouldn’t exactly be surprised if Philly wins by 7+, but Washington is so difficult to defend right now that it seems foolish to give them that many points. Barkley may run for 150, but Hurts seems off to me. Seems like a toss up game to me?

I’ve got Groundhogs Day feelings with KC again. Makes sense since they’ve been in this game for so many years in a row. As a fantasy player, it’s hard sometimes to separate explosive/exciting/high flying from just plain good. KC never looks overly impressive to me but they are clutch in key moments on offense and have a solid defense. Mahomes gets it done with his legs when needed and yes, seems to draw a decent amount of calls. I will be rooting for Buffalo and they played a great game vs KC earlier in the year, but my eyes tell me that their defense is spotty, and Allen has few reliable targets to throw to. KC in a close one.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I wouldn’t exactly be surprised if Philly wins by 7+, but Washington is so difficult to defend right now that it seems foolish to give them that many points. Barkley may run for 150, but Hurts seems off to me. Seems like a toss up game to me?

I’ve got Groundhogs Day feelings with KC again. Makes sense since they’ve been in this game for so many years in a row. As a fantasy player, it’s hard sometimes to separate explosive/exciting/high flying from just plain good. KC never looks overly impressive to me but they are clutch in key moments on offense and have a solid defense. Mahomes gets it done with his legs when needed and yes, seems to draw a decent amount of calls. I will be rooting for Buffalo and they played a great game vs KC earlier in the year, but my eyes tell me that their defense is spotty, and Allen has few reliable targets to throw to. KC in a close one.

Tampa was the 18th ranked defense, Detroit was the 20th. It's not like Washington faced two teams with great defenses. I'm not sure Detroit could have stopped Ohio State's offense.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Leaning Buffalo M/L
Commanders with the points,seeing + 5 1/2 and +6
Talk me into or out of it

Those are both my positions.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Leaning Buffalo M/L
Commanders with the points,seeing + 5 1/2 and +6
Talk me into or out of it

That's exactly what I was looking at. Buffalo beat KC this year, albeit at home. Washington generally keeps games close.

Moreover Philly keeps games close. They have a terrible K whose gaffs have blown the cover twice for me this year already. MFG, sure - but we’re talking MPATs!

WAS + the points feels like the best bet this weekend.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Leaning Buffalo M/L
Commanders with the points,seeing + 5 1/2 and +6
Talk me into or out of it

That's exactly what I was looking at. Buffalo beat KC this year, albeit at home. Washington generally keeps games close.

Moreover Philly keeps games close. They have a terrible K whose gaffs have blown the cover twice for me this year already. MFG, sure - but we’re talking MPATs!

WAS + the points feels like the best bet this weekend.

If you continually bet the Eagles and they don't cover . . . please bet the Commanders this weekend. Thanks in advance.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you continually bet the Eagles and they don't cover . . . please bet the Commanders this weekend. Thanks in advance.

Not following the logic here. Can you expand on this?

 

[Snotbubbles]

If you continually bet the Eagles and they don't cover . . . please bet the Commanders this weekend. Thanks in advance.

Not following the logic here. Can you expand on this?

When you bet the Eagles they don't cover. I want them to cover which means they won the game. Please bet on Washington.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you continually bet the Eagles and they don't cover . . . please bet the Commanders this weekend. Thanks in advance.

Not following the logic here. Can you expand on this?

When you bet the Eagles they don't cover. I want them to cover which means they won the game. Please bet on Washington.

Flawless reasoning. 10/10, no notes.

 

[Snotbubbles]

If you continually bet the Eagles and they don't cover . . . please bet the Commanders this weekend. Thanks in advance.

Not following the logic here. Can you expand on this?

When you bet the Eagles they don't cover. I want them to cover which means they won the game. Please bet on Washington.

Flawless reasoning. 10/10, no notes.

If this were the Bronx Tale, I'd make you sit in the bathroom.

 

[Rubi]

So of the following if you HAD to bet the baby's milk money
Which ONE would be the one you're 99% sure of(odds based on Betus as of this morning)

Washington +6
Philadelphia -6
Washington/Philadelphia over 47 1/2
Washington/Philadelphia under 47 1/2
Buffalo +1
Kansas City -1
Buffalo/Kansas City over 48 1/2
Buffalo/Kansas City under 48 1/2

 

[Snotbubbles]

So of the following if you HAD to bet the baby's milk money
Which ONE would be the one you're 99% sure of(odds based on Betus as of this morning)

Washington +6
Philadelphia -6
Washington/Philadelphia over 47 1/2
Washington/Philadelphia under 47 1/2
Buffalo +1
Kansas City -1
Buffalo/Kansas City over 48 1/2
Buffalo/Kansas City under 48 1/2

WAS/PHI over 47.5

 

[Uncle Leo]

So of the following if you HAD to bet the baby's milk money
Which ONE would be the one you're 99% sure of(odds based on Betus as of this morning)

Washington +6
Philadelphia -6
Washington/Philadelphia over 47 1/2
Washington/Philadelphia under 47 1/2
Buffalo +1
Kansas City -1
Buffalo/Kansas City over 48 1/2
Buffalo/Kansas City under 48 1/2

WAS/PHI over 47.5

Great call. I wish I would have listened.

 

[Rubi]

BetUs odds as of Thursday morning

Kansa City vs Philadelphia +1
Over/Under 49 1/2

Right now I'm leaning the over

 

[kyoun1e]

BetUs odds as of Thursday morning

Kansa City vs Philadelphia +1
Over/Under 49 1/2

Right now I'm leaning the over

Surprised KC only 1 point favorites.

I'm having a hard time envisioning Mahommes NOT getting it done and Sirianni somehow making a screwy decision to cost them the game.

 

[unckeyherb]

BetUs odds as of Thursday morning

Kansa City vs Philadelphia +1
Over/Under 49 1/2

Right now I'm leaning the over

Two of the best defenses in the league. Eagles defense has held opponents to 23 points or less in every game going back to week 4 (except the Washington game that saw Jalen leave in the second drive and CJGJ get ejected.) That game, Washington was doing nothing offensively until CJGJ went out. Then they went TD, TD, TD.

All that being said, I think the 49.5 is low. I'm expecting a 27-33 type game.