After digging deeper into spreads. My leans for each are the following:
Browns -3 -Great stories on both sides, Home dogs scare me but defense travels and this is one of if not the best defense out there. The game they played in week 17 was well in hand by the Browns most of the game and despite Stroud being out the Texans scored on a kick return and 2 late 4th quarter TD's after the game was well out of hand. Flacco just needs to take care of the ball.
Dolphins +4 -this game smells like a trap with all the defensive injury news, cold weather, Patty Mahomes, Tua and the Miami offense does enough to cover but not win.
Bills -10 -I usually go with the dogs on double digit spreads, however since 2010, double digit favorites in the playoffs are 11-4 ATS, Steelers don't belong which probably means they win outright on some bogus plays. Just like Flacco, if Allen takes care of the ball, they win easily.
Packers +7.5 -Cowboys are a different animal at home, but I do think the Packers have the fire power to stay in this. Packers cover with a late TD even though I think most of the game the Cowboys will be in control.
Rams +3 -Toughest game to cap as I think this could go either way, but i'm taking the points. I want the Lions to dominate so bad for the sake of the city. (Bengals fan who knows how a playoff drought feels), but Rams matchup well with the Lions. They pass the ball so well which is Lions weakness. These teams are similar in styles and it will come down to 1 play that makes all the difference. I think Dan Campbell goes for it on a 4th down and they don't get it.
Eagles -3 -Another home dog with the Bucs, but both these teams are limping into the playoffs. I like the NFC East more than the NFC South this year, I don't think any team that came out of the NFC South this year are contenders. Eagles figure it out for at least this game. Hurts is going to run. run and run some more.
Best Bets: I don't have one for the games, but I do like Amon-Ra St Brown Over 7.5 receptions and CeeDee Lamb Over 7.5 receptions.
