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Is Michael Floyd underrated? (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
Donsmith753
Footballguy
I think he's a top 15 WR and I think 1.2 is right.
I have him in Dynasty League and love him long term. Love the talent and size. I think down the road he can be a beast. If you need help now, then he isn't as helpful. Once he gets a good QB there, I think he will explode. My team is stacked so I can afford to wait for him to find that QB.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
Traded the 1.1/3.10/Teo for Floyd/1.11/2.2 16 team IDP
cstu
Footballguy
Despite his situation he still put up 65/1041/5 (16 YPC) in his 2nd year. There's a short list of players who have done that.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Mike Williams did it twice in his first 3 years and he's pretty worthless as the #2 WR on a bad passing team.
As far as dynasty value it seems a make or break year for Floyd. If he doesn't break out, he's overvalued right now.
I think in startups he's going at about his max value in the 3rd. A lot of believers out there. But I think you can get him cheaper in an existing league.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
It'll get interesting if/when Fitz moves on IMO (which may or may not coincide when Palmer's gone)
2014 production shouldn't be a question. I think his situation is great right now (drawing #2 corners with a QB that can still sling the ball). Beyond is a bit up in the air for me personally given the last several years of pre-Palmer Cards QB play. (And I'm pretending like Palmer was even good. He was however substantially better than the other QBs, most of whom I think are already out of the league)
I think he's a safe long term WR2/3 guy (that'll obviously fluctuate based on post-Palmer). I personally don't think he has WR1 upside.
2014 production shouldn't be a question. I think his situation is great right now (drawing #2 corners with a QB that can still sling the ball). Beyond is a bit up in the air for me personally given the last several years of pre-Palmer Cards QB play. (And I'm pretending like Palmer was even good. He was however substantially better than the other QBs, most of whom I think are already out of the league)
I think he's a safe long term WR2/3 guy (that'll obviously fluctuate based on post-Palmer). I personally don't think he has WR1 upside.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
Aside from situation I can't think of any reason why he wouldn't have WR1 upside, 6-2, 220- check, 4.4 speed-check, good route runner- check, great ball skills and hands-check, 1st round pedigree- check. Seems to check all the boxes for me. And on top of all that he fits the current trend of highly coveted FF commodities; Young and a WR
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Terpman22
Footballguy
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
JMO It'd be silly not to see what he'll fetch right now. Too much instability for me long term to not look to deal him. I just feel it's far more likely than not that he doesn't put up a Top 12/WR1 season in the next 3 years. If someone believes he has WR1 upside, I'd certainly be interested in hearing an offer from them. (I'd be looking for a non-RB position player and/or some trade/swap of picks)
I have a shorter term view on WRs (in dynasty leagues) than probably most folks. (Realizing Michael Floyd, for all the reasons alluded to above, has significant trade value right now). If I can get a WR whom I feel will put up bigger numbers over next 3 years + getting other picks/players in return, I have no problem pulling the trigger.
I have a shorter term view on WRs (in dynasty leagues) than probably most folks. (Realizing Michael Floyd, for all the reasons alluded to above, has significant trade value right now). If I can get a WR whom I feel will put up bigger numbers over next 3 years + getting other picks/players in return, I have no problem pulling the trigger.
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Terpman22
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
So a couple of underage arrests and one DUI in college followed up by zero problems since 2011 make you an alcoholic? Man I'm glad no one had a microscope on me when I was a dumb 19 - 21 year old college kid...
opensourcebeer
Footballguy
Talented, but terrible situation. I recall him being drafted as a rookie at 1.07 in my main league. Not a great appreciation of value in 2 years.
False Start
Footballguy
I'm debating between him and Blackmon, is Floyd really worth a Top 5 pick? That seems pricey.travdogg said:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I think right this minute I woudl lean Floyd, barely.
If I was RB heavy and WR needy, I could see dealing pick 5 for FLoyd.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Despite his situation? It wasn't the perfect storm, but Palmer is a strong armed QB and Arians is prone to downfield play calls (Luck led the league in 20+ yard passes in 2012 under Arians and Ben + Wallace had a good run under him as well). Additionally, Fitzgerald pulled a hamstring in week 2 which seemed to be a nagging problem all year, yet I'm sure Floyd still drew the #2 CB.
In conclusion, Floyd's situation was actually pretty good. He played a huge % of snaps despite Andre Roberts being a very productive WR. The only negative he was dealing with was the offensive line couldn't give Palmer the time he needed.
Palmer isn't getting any younger and as we've seen in StL, JAX, HOU, TEN, MIN, NYJ, etc. that finding a new, good QB isn't exactly a walk in the park. Floyd's situation in year 4 could easily be significantly worse than it was in year 2. Fitz isn't young, but if he's healthy, he's still got top 5 ability and will not see a noticeable drop off for at least 4 more years (see Reggie Wayne), so it's not like Floyd is about to step into a 150 target situation.
I like him, but don't feel as comfortable as others about his situation. If I had him, I'd look to sell high and buy back in a couple years because I really feel like his stock price is much more likely to go down when reality sets in vs. right now when optimism is at its peak.
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Terpman22
Footballguy
This is getting too cute IMO. I did that. I sold Jamaal Charles for 4 1st round picks after his first year with significant playing time (when he avg'd like 6.6 ypc). Can't buy him back now without raping myself.
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TheFanatic
Footballguy
This guy is going to be a monster this year!
steveski
Footballguy
Their 3rd round pick, John Brown is getting praised as well. He's pretty much a clone of TY Hilton.
http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nfl/cardinals/2014/05/15/cardinals-rookie-wr-john-brown-exceeding-expectations/9154103/
I'm a new Floyd owner, so glad to hear things are looking up for him.
Faust
MVP
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Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
The Arizona Republic says Michael Floyd "understood where he was supposed to be and when to be there" and "caught nearly everything thrown his way" during OTAs and minicamp.
Top beat writer Kent Somers has literally sounded the fantasy alarm on Floyd. Coming off a 65-1041-5 season, the stars are aligning for a bigger breakout in Year 3. Aging Larry Fitzgerald has been reduced to an underneath, possession kind of role while the 24-year-old Floyd is ascending. The physically imposing former first-round pick has been the unquestioned star of Cardinals' offseason practices.
Source: Arizona Republic
Jun 18 - 8:16 AM
Top beat writer Kent Somers has literally sounded the fantasy alarm on Floyd. Coming off a 65-1041-5 season, the stars are aligning for a bigger breakout in Year 3. Aging Larry Fitzgerald has been reduced to an underneath, possession kind of role while the 24-year-old Floyd is ascending. The physically imposing former first-round pick has been the unquestioned star of Cardinals' offseason practices.
Source: Arizona Republic
Jun 18 - 8:16 AM
steveski
Footballguy
I've been seeing a lot of articles about Floyd lately and he's becoming a popular "sleeper" pick to become a borderline WR1 this year. In redraft, he's going as WR29 which is a joke considering he finished as WR23 last year. If you're drafting now then definitely pick him before that. I've been landing him as my WR3 on some teams. I see his value shooting up to at least the WR20 range by the time preseason is here.
In dynasty, he seems to be valued about right I think. Some have him ranked right behind guys like Jeffery, Cobb, Brown. Pretty much has the highest upside of any WR outside of the top of the 2nd tier of WR's.
In dynasty, he seems to be valued about right I think. Some have him ranked right behind guys like Jeffery, Cobb, Brown. Pretty much has the highest upside of any WR outside of the top of the 2nd tier of WR's.
Here's my concern with Floyd in redraft... Arizona threw the ball 572 times last year. I don't expect that number to increase. Fitzgerald is still in his prime and is going to be the better WR this year if he's healthy. Floyd caught a fantasy football break last year when Fitzgerald injured his hamstring in week 2 and then injured his other hamstring somewhere in the week 8-10 range, yet didn't miss any games, so he still drew the #1 CB. I'm sure Palmer knew Fitz wasn't 100% with all the practices he missed.
Assuming the ground game improves this year and Fitzgerald is healthy, I don't see how Floyd gets more targets. I'm seeing his ADP as WR25 according to the last composite ADP released by FBG. He seems like a safe play at that point, but not a draft pick that is going to give you a ton of value. I'd rather roll the dice on Wallace a full round later (WR29 ADP, finished WR25 last year).
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Preface this by saying I own both Floyd and Fitz in separate leagues.FF Ninja said:
I think its also possible that the Arizona offense is just better this year than last. It will be the second year in Ariens offense. The comfort level of Palmer/Fitz/Floyd/Ellington should increase greatly. Its not like it was a train wreck last year either with Palmer throwing for nearly 4300 yards and 24 TDs.
Some things that I feel pretty comfortable with saying.
1. Palmer will attempt between 550-600 passes.
2. Palmer will complete at least 61% of those passes, and average > 7 YPA.
That means there's likely going to be over 4000 yards to go around. They have a rookie TE they brought in principally to block. So the majority of those passing yards are gonna be divided among Fitz/Floyd and Ellington. Pretty easy to see how both Fitz and Floyd could/should go over 1000 yards each. I think what is yet to be determined is whether or not Fitz is actually slipping with age. He's not eclipsed 1000 yards since 2011. Some of that can be attributed to bad QB play in 2012 and injuries in 2013. I don't think it would shock anyone if Fitz roared back to 1400/10. 950/6 is also a definite possibility though, and could lead to a huge season for Floyd.
ETA: I think it's pretty clear this is by far the most talented offensive group that Palmer has worked with since 2007. Oakland didn't have much to work with, and Ochocinco was very mediocre after the 2007 season.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
In 2012 the Cardinals gave up 58 sacks. In 2013 Palmer was sacked 41 times. The most he has ever been sacked in a season for his career. Palmer stayed healthy all 16 games and the Cardinals added a LT in free agency and will also be getting rookie LG Cooper back from injury. So there could be some improvement in pass protection from last season which could lead to more plays and extended drives than the Cardinals had last season.
Fitzgerald will be 31 years old this season. I don't think he will return to 2011 type numbers, where he had 80 receptions at 17.6ypc again. But Fitzgerald will still get 150+ targets in this offense if healthy all 16 games. From 2007 to 2012 Fitgerald averaged 159 targets/season before having that number dip to 136 in 2013.
Both Floyd and Fitz should have over 100 targets and they may be close to a 1a 1b in terms of targets for the next 2 seasons, where you might expect some drop off for Fitz due to age 33.
I think it looks good for Floyd/Fitz in 2014 as the Cardinals 3rd WR is now a rookie, so not likely to get as many targets as Andre Roberts was getting in this offense. 76 in 2013 113 in 2012 and 98 in 2011. John Brown may earn a similar portion of targets in 2015-16 but not likely this season as a rookie. So I think some of those targets (I am thinking around 50 targets here with the other half still going to Brown) will be given to Ellington in more of a slot WR role. But that Floyd and Fitzgerald will pick up half of those 50 or so opportunities in play. Basically what this means to me is another 12 targets for both WR that would go back to the WR3 in 2015.
Fitzgerald will be 31 years old this season. I don't think he will return to 2011 type numbers, where he had 80 receptions at 17.6ypc again. But Fitzgerald will still get 150+ targets in this offense if healthy all 16 games. From 2007 to 2012 Fitgerald averaged 159 targets/season before having that number dip to 136 in 2013.
Both Floyd and Fitz should have over 100 targets and they may be close to a 1a 1b in terms of targets for the next 2 seasons, where you might expect some drop off for Fitz due to age 33.
I think it looks good for Floyd/Fitz in 2014 as the Cardinals 3rd WR is now a rookie, so not likely to get as many targets as Andre Roberts was getting in this offense. 76 in 2013 113 in 2012 and 98 in 2011. John Brown may earn a similar portion of targets in 2015-16 but not likely this season as a rookie. So I think some of those targets (I am thinking around 50 targets here with the other half still going to Brown) will be given to Ellington in more of a slot WR role. But that Floyd and Fitzgerald will pick up half of those 50 or so opportunities in play. Basically what this means to me is another 12 targets for both WR that would go back to the WR3 in 2015.
jurb26
Footballguy
I agree totally with this. I was about as down as anyone on the Arz offense last season primarily because I thought their oline was going to be a huge detriment to them. On top of that, people were putting out projections and expectations that just completely ignored how bad the oline is. Well, as down as I was on them last year, I'm equally bullish on them this year. The oline is going to be massively improved. I think the improvement is going to be dramatic and that will filter over to the entire unit. They signed the best LT in FA, probably a top 5 player at his position. They also get a healthy Cooper back for the first time ever. I thought he was the best G to come out in a few years. I'm expecting much better things from Arz offesively and that will likely help everyone, Floyd included.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Perhaps Ginn surprises as the slot and Brown does not get to play much. In any case I think there may be a little more targets for Floyd.Fitz than last season one way or another.
This.FF Ninja said:
Reggie Wayne caught 106 passes when he was 34 y/o. The age-related decline is overrated when it comes to consummate professionals like Wayne and Fitzgerald. Similar to the reasoning why it generally takes good WR's 3-4 yrs to hone their craft in the first place. A vet like Palmer appreciates this.
Not saying Floyd won't be a very good number 2 but won't exceed Fitz in production IMO.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Reggie Wayne at 33 years old: 75/960/4 in 16 games.
Reggie Wayne at 35 years old: 38/503/2 in 7 games.
Like I said earlier, I own both Floyd and Fitz in different leagues. Fitz is coming off 2 down years in a row. Not sure how anybody can state with certainty that Floyd won't be better.
Obviously you are entitled to your opinion as to who between Floyd/Fitz will be better but the above Wayne stats do nothing to support your position.
When Wayne was 33 he had Painter/Orlovsky/Collins throwing to him. I'd say he did okay.
Last year Wayne was on pace for 87/1150/5 which would have basically matched TY Hilton's end of year stats.
Faust
MVP
NFL 2014 training camp: Carson Palmer 'not going to put a ceiling' on Michael Floyd
http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2014/7/30/5951651/nfl-2014-training-camp-carson-palmer-not-going-to-put-a-ceiling-on
http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2014/7/30/5951651/nfl-2014-training-camp-carson-palmer-not-going-to-put-a-ceiling-on
Faust
MVP
Monday Musings: Larry Fitzgerald no longer No. 1 Cardinals receiver
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pete-prisco/24647947/monday-musings-larry-fitzgerald-no-longer-no-1-cardinals-receiver
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pete-prisco/24647947/monday-musings-larry-fitzgerald-no-longer-no-1-cardinals-receiver
Tanner9919
Footballguy
65-1041-5 last year was impressive..the natural progression is that WR's flourish in their 3rd season..
he should easily make the leap to 85-90 recs, 1300+/- yards, 8-10 TD..
that's really only catching 20 more balls and 3-5 more TDs in 2014..
with a bit of luck,he could finish as a top 8-10 WR..
Floyd should be a major contributor this season and beyond..
criminally undervalued,IMO..
he should easily make the leap to 85-90 recs, 1300+/- yards, 8-10 TD..
that's really only catching 20 more balls and 3-5 more TDs in 2014..
with a bit of luck,he could finish as a top 8-10 WR..
Floyd should be a major contributor this season and beyond..
criminally undervalued,IMO..
chad in Indy
Footballguy
Last years 10 TDs was the highest since '09. Given his career stats, I think 6-8 TD's is more realistic. While I don't think the overall comparison is fair, I think Fitz will be more of a chain mover/safety valve for Palmer, much like Wayne was for Luck 2 years ago.Chaka said:I still like Fitz to finish with more TDs. He'sin the red zone and near the goal line.
