Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I'm working on the first offseason installments of this year's Reading the Defense. While we wait for free agency and, hopefully, an OTA or two before camp to settle out the usual player movement and depth chart/scheme discussions, I'm putting together a "20 Questions" of sorts.
Here's an excerpt from the first installment:
Is Ndumakong Suh a DL1?
I framed the question this way for a reason. I think the debate about Suh in fantasy circles – i.e. can he maintain his production, how good can the Detroit defensive line be, were we wrong about Gerald McCoy, etc. – misses a key point.
In a recent IDP-only mock draft I participated in, Suh was drafted fourth overall by Shane Hallam of Draft Countdown. Hallam is a recent convert to the world of IDP fantasy football and the pick sparked some debate among the mockers and in our forum at Footballguys:
How big of a reach was Suh? Is taking a defensive tackle in the first round ever justifiable?
While I think the hype surrounding Detroit’s defensive line is overblown (more on that later) and that Suh’s game has holes that can be exploited by a smart offensive coordinator, there’s a valid argument that none of that matters in this case.
With so many defenses rotating their interior linemen or using a run stopping/pass rushing platoon, drafting a defensive tackle as a “stud DL” has become unthinkable. A casual IDP follower might nod their head in fond remembrance of Warren Sapp or even Jon Randle, Hall-of-Famer defensive tackles with huge numbers. But they weren’t the outliers you might expect. Even long time IDP vets may have forgotten names like Wayne Martin (65 sacks, including five seasons of double-digit sacks between 1992 and 1997) and La’Roi Glover (17 sacks in 2000, eight straight seasons of at least five sacks between 1997 and 2004). The IDP careers of those players (and others) rivaled IDP HOF DEs like Michael Strahan and Bruce Smith.
If you think Suh’s 2010 season – one in which he played nearly every snap, was moved all around the line to exploit mismatches, and wreaked consistent havoc on passing downs on his way to a 48-10 finish – was the real thing, there’s a very strong chance that he’ll be the next Randle, Martin or Glover. Not only is he then worthy of a first round pick in an All-IDP format, he’s arguably worth the #1 overall pick as the biggest relative advantage on the board.
I’m not sure I’m ready to crown Suh yet. He’s going to face more double teams, there’s no guarantee he sees such a high number of snaps this year, he converted a huge percentage of his pressures into sacks and he wasn’t nearly as consistent against the run as his numbers suggest. But this is yet another situation where you need to put aside your standard default biases and make sure you’re asking the right questions when putting together your rankings and tiers.
Four of the five FBG staffers who have submitted redraft rankings at the DL position have Suh in their top 12.Would you take the risk?
Here's an excerpt from the first installment:
Is Ndumakong Suh a DL1?
I framed the question this way for a reason. I think the debate about Suh in fantasy circles – i.e. can he maintain his production, how good can the Detroit defensive line be, were we wrong about Gerald McCoy, etc. – misses a key point.
In a recent IDP-only mock draft I participated in, Suh was drafted fourth overall by Shane Hallam of Draft Countdown. Hallam is a recent convert to the world of IDP fantasy football and the pick sparked some debate among the mockers and in our forum at Footballguys:
How big of a reach was Suh? Is taking a defensive tackle in the first round ever justifiable?
While I think the hype surrounding Detroit’s defensive line is overblown (more on that later) and that Suh’s game has holes that can be exploited by a smart offensive coordinator, there’s a valid argument that none of that matters in this case.
With so many defenses rotating their interior linemen or using a run stopping/pass rushing platoon, drafting a defensive tackle as a “stud DL” has become unthinkable. A casual IDP follower might nod their head in fond remembrance of Warren Sapp or even Jon Randle, Hall-of-Famer defensive tackles with huge numbers. But they weren’t the outliers you might expect. Even long time IDP vets may have forgotten names like Wayne Martin (65 sacks, including five seasons of double-digit sacks between 1992 and 1997) and La’Roi Glover (17 sacks in 2000, eight straight seasons of at least five sacks between 1997 and 2004). The IDP careers of those players (and others) rivaled IDP HOF DEs like Michael Strahan and Bruce Smith.
If you think Suh’s 2010 season – one in which he played nearly every snap, was moved all around the line to exploit mismatches, and wreaked consistent havoc on passing downs on his way to a 48-10 finish – was the real thing, there’s a very strong chance that he’ll be the next Randle, Martin or Glover. Not only is he then worthy of a first round pick in an All-IDP format, he’s arguably worth the #1 overall pick as the biggest relative advantage on the board.
I’m not sure I’m ready to crown Suh yet. He’s going to face more double teams, there’s no guarantee he sees such a high number of snaps this year, he converted a huge percentage of his pressures into sacks and he wasn’t nearly as consistent against the run as his numbers suggest. But this is yet another situation where you need to put aside your standard default biases and make sure you’re asking the right questions when putting together your rankings and tiers.
Four of the five FBG staffers who have submitted redraft rankings at the DL position have Suh in their top 12.Would you take the risk?
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