Is Now the Time to Sell Calvin Johnson? (1 Viewer)

[CalBear]

A lott of people like to look at players in the past, but I prefer to spend my time and energy on the here and now and how confident I am about certain players to score at a high level for years to come. Horn, Holt, Johnson, and others do nothing to tell me how well OBJ, Green, Watkins, or Evens will do.

The thing is, the vast majority of promising young players will never put up the kinds of seasons Calvin Johnson has. A solid majority will never get to the top tier. It is likely that the rest of Johnson's career will look something like the after-age-29 careers of other recent Hall of Fame-level receivers (Rice, Moss, Owens, Harrison), all of which include multiple top-5 fantasy finishes. You're not going to be able to move Johnson for young guys who've already had top-5 finishes like OBJ or Green. You could probably get Watkins or Evans for him, but will they ever have a top-5 WR finish? The odds are against them, while the odds are pretty good that Johnson manages it again.

I wouldnt say the odds are against Watkins or Evans to EVER have a top 5 finish.

Calvin is a super star like we have never seen before, but he is still human, and dealing with more injuries than we ever saw out of the other guys like Owens and Moss.

Also, just because Calvin is a super stud and the best in the game doesnt mean his longevity will be that of Rice and Owens. It doesnt work that way.

TO had plenty of injuries. He'd missed at least two games in three of the previous four years before he turned 30. Moss missed 3 games at 27 and 3 games at 29.

I'm pretty confident in saying that as long as Johnson can lace 'em up, he'll be a very strong receiver. He doesn't need to have 4.3 speed or a 40" vertical to be among the best in the game. Maybe he blows out both knees and never is the same, but that can happen to anyone in the league.

So here's the question: what percentage of WRs who have a finish between WR10 and WR25 in their rookie seasons go on to have at least one top-5 season in their later careers?

Rookie WRs between WR10 and WR30, 1990-2010

Fred Barnett (none)

Darnay Scott (none)

Joey Galloway (one #5 finish)

Chris Sanders (none)

Terry Glenn (none)

Marvin Harrison (many)

Keyshawn Johnson (one #5 finish)

Eddie Kennison (none)

Kevin Johnson (none)

Chris Chambers (none)

Andre Johnson (one #1 one #2)

Michael Clayton (none)

Lee Evans (none)

Larry Fitzgerald (many)

Roy Williams (none)

Marques Colston (none)

Dwayne Bowe (none)

Eddie Royal (none)

Percy Harvin (none yet)

Mike Williams (none yet)

So of these 20, three wound up being major successes. Two others had exactly one season at #5 and clearly would have been a downgrade from an established stud. Maybe Percy Harvin will manage a top 5 season at some point.

So yes, I'd say the odds are against both Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans. I'd give Watkins better odds than Evans, but I think they're both under 50% for managing a top 5 finish considering the competition (even in their own class).

 

[ghostguy123]

A lott of people like to look at players in the past, but I prefer to spend my time and energy on the here and now and how confident I am about certain players to score at a high level for years to come. Horn, Holt, Johnson, and others do nothing to tell me how well OBJ, Green, Watkins, or Evens will do.

The thing is, the vast majority of promising young players will never put up the kinds of seasons Calvin Johnson has. A solid majority will never get to the top tier. It is likely that the rest of Johnson's career will look something like the after-age-29 careers of other recent Hall of Fame-level receivers (Rice, Moss, Owens, Harrison), all of which include multiple top-5 fantasy finishes. You're not going to be able to move Johnson for young guys who've already had top-5 finishes like OBJ or Green. You could probably get Watkins or Evans for him, but will they ever have a top-5 WR finish? The odds are against them, while the odds are pretty good that Johnson manages it again.

I wouldnt say the odds are against Watkins or Evans to EVER have a top 5 finish.

Calvin is a super star like we have never seen before, but he is still human, and dealing with more injuries than we ever saw out of the other guys like Owens and Moss.

Also, just because Calvin is a super stud and the best in the game doesnt mean his longevity will be that of Rice and Owens. It doesnt work that way.

TO had plenty of injuries. He'd missed at least two games in three of the previous four years before he turned 30. Moss missed 3 games at 27 and 3 games at 29.

I'm pretty confident in saying that as long as Johnson can lace 'em up, he'll be a very strong receiver. He doesn't need to have 4.3 speed or a 40" vertical to be among the best in the game. Maybe he blows out both knees and never is the same, but that can happen to anyone in the league.

So here's the question: what percentage of WRs who have a finish between WR10 and WR25 in their rookie seasons go on to have at least one top-5 season in their later careers?

Rookie WRs between WR10 and WR30, 1990-2010

Fred Barnett (none)

Darnay Scott (none)

Joey Galloway (one #5 finish)

Chris Sanders (none)

Terry Glenn (none)

Marvin Harrison (many)

Keyshawn Johnson (one #5 finish)

Eddie Kennison (none)

Kevin Johnson (none)

Chris Chambers (none)

Andre Johnson (one #1 one #2)

Michael Clayton (none)

Lee Evans (none)

Larry Fitzgerald (many)

Roy Williams (none)

Marques Colston (none)

Dwayne Bowe (none)

Eddie Royal (none)

Percy Harvin (none yet)

Mike Williams (none yet)

So of these 20, three wound up being major successes. Two others had exactly one season at #5 and clearly would have been a downgrade from an established stud. Maybe Percy Harvin will manage a top 5 season at some point.

So yes, I'd say the odds are against both Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans. I'd give Watkins better odds than Evans, but I think they're both under 50% for managing a top 5 finish considering the competition (even in their own class).

Well, you can cross quite a few guys off that list due to not being as talented. So those percentages automatically go up

 

[SproutDaddy]

I love Calvin, and might be buying this off-season, but no way is he worth more than OBJr. after that rookie season.

Michael Clayton says hi

There are a ton of differences between Clayton/Allen and OBJr. Big, obvious differences.

I guess I'm not seeing them. I most definitely would like to be enlightened.

No one is this stupid.

You're right. I'm not stupid. And you, sir, are not the all seeing, all knowing. You simply have an opinion as the rest of us. Every post you make on this board reeks of pompousness as if you are superior to anyone on this board. You are very well deserving of your #1 seeding.

I still see no huge obvious differences in the 2 players coming into the league. Clayton seemed to have better measurables. Odell put up slightly better numbers. They were both drafted in the same vicinity of the 1st round. If you go back and read from my earlier posts, I never said Odell's career will take the same path. I compared the 2 as a buyer beware. I'm not willing to pay the price to acquire him as a WR1 and top receiver in the league. Maybe I'm missing out. I don't care. I'm happier riding a more proven commodity.

 

[ghostguy123]

You're right. I'm not stupid. And you, sir, are not the all seeing, all knowing. You simply have an opinion as the rest of us. Every post you make on this board reeks of pompousness as if you are superior to anyone on this board. You are very well deserving of your #1 seeding.

I still see no huge obvious differences in the 2 players coming into the league. Clayton seemed to have better measurables. Odell put up slightly better numbers. They were both drafted in the same vicinity of the 1st round. If you go back and read from my earlier posts, I never said Odell's career will take the same path. I compared the 2 as a buyer beware. I'm not willing to pay the price to acquire him as a WR1 and top receiver in the league. Maybe I'm missing out. I don't care. I'm happier riding a more proven commodity.

I am happier winning, and winning for extended periods of time. To each his own.

And just an FYI, draft position and combine numbers dont mean 10% as much as how the guys look on the field against actual NFL competition. If they did, there wouldn't be the ENORMOUS gap between the career paths of players drafted close to each other.

I didn't think super highly on Beckham coming into the league. I figured he was a late 1st round rookie pick. I was wrong. There is no better way to know how a guy's game will translate to the NFL than actually seeing him play in the NFL. I was late to the OBJ party unfortunately, but it's pretty clear he is a really good one now, and will be for a while (barring major injury just like anyone else).

It's also clear that NOTHING about OBJ's and Clayton's games were comparable in any way in terms of what they look like on an NFL field against NFL competition.

Hence the terrible logic in the comparison. I said, if you wanna rank OBJ a lot lower than me and put Calvin a lot higher than me, that is fine. But some of the logic used in making the argument for some of you guys is just abysmal. I could very easily make an argument for Calvin over OBJ and make it sound good, logical, and convincing. I am not going to cause I would just be lying through my teeth, but at least those lies would be logical. As soon as I use names like Clayon, Bennett, and several of the other guys mentioned, my argument falls flat and becomes way too worthless for people to even read.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Calvin Johnson will not need offseason surgery.
It's good news for Megatron, who underwent finger and ankle surgery last offseason. Turning 30 next September, Johnson should have at least 1-2 year left of top-end wide receiver play. "Feeling good," Johnson said on Saturday. "Coming along. I'm not 100 (percent) yet, but that's what the offseason's for, to get right. So reload and get ready for next year."

Source: Detroit Free Press
Feb 1 - 1:24 PM

 

[georg013]

Is this an OBJ thread? Cant go anywhere without his name being brought up. Sheesh.

 

[lod01]

He needs to start #####ing about not getting the ball enough.

 

[Tool]

From Mike Sando, ESPN analsyt:

"Megatron has missed five games the past two seasons and wasn't right physically in others," Sando wrote last week. "Last year, an executive from another team summarized it this way: 'I heard that some of the coaches in the mix for the Detroit job (in early 2014)had some concerns. ... I had heard then that there are serious concerns about his health, that with all the maintenance that is involved, this guy is going to fall apart at some point.'

"That point has not yet come, but there are signs it is coming sooner rather than later. Better to be a year early than a year late."

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2015/05/17/detroit-lions-calvin-johnson-fantasy-football/27489039/

 

[msudaisy26]

Yeah, I sold him right before the trade deadline in my league that I had him. I got Tre Mason, Cooks, and 2 first rounders in 2015. Ended up being 1.06 and 1.10

Much of the recent discussion here has been about preferring Julio, Dez, Beckham, etc. to Calvin. Those positions are debatable.

But I'd rather have Calvin (and 3 other rostered players) than the group you got in your trade.

Yeah, he didnt sell high.

That return would be debatable right NOW.

I disagree, I made the playoffs, but would have lost in the 1st round regardless. So now it looks like I dealt Calvin for Cooks, Agholor/Parker at 1.06, Abdullah, Yeldon, DBG, Perriman at 1.10 and I have a verbal agreement with the owner of the 1.01 pick to trade Mason for 2.6 as long as he takes Gurley at 1.01 at our draft in about 3 weeks

 

[cstu]

Yeah, I sold him right before the trade deadline in my league that I had him. I got Tre Mason, Cooks, and 2 first rounders in 2015. Ended up being 1.06 and 1.10

Much of the recent discussion here has been about preferring Julio, Dez, Beckham, etc. to Calvin. Those positions are debatable.

But I'd rather have Calvin (and 3 other rostered players) than the group you got in your trade.

Yeah, he didnt sell high.

That return would be debatable right NOW.

I disagree, I made the playoffs, but would have lost in the 1st round regardless. So now it looks like I dealt Calvin for Cooks, Agholor/Parker at 1.06, Abdullah, Yeldon, DBG, Perriman at 1.10 and I have a verbal agreement with the owner of the 1.01 pick to trade Mason for 2.6 as long as he takes Gurley at 1.01 at our draft in about 3 weeks

I think you got more than enough for Calvin. Don't believe he has many top seasons left.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Lance Moore said Calvin Johnson's potential is "pretty crazy, a second year in this offense."

Moore is qualified to speak on the Joe Lombardi scheme after spending the first eight years of his career in New Orleans, where Lombardi learned the ropes. Johnson can play the Marques Colston "big slot" role and can also still dominate on the outside. Despite missing three games last year and being hobbled in a couple others, Megatron still finished as fantasy's No. 14 wideout. Even if he's 5-10 percent off his career peak, Johnson brings upside in Round 2 of fantasy drafts.

Source: detroitlions.com
Jun 9 - 10:03 AM

 

[Faust]

Calvin Johnson as good as ever for Detroit Lions

 

[blardorg]

Yeah, I sold him right before the trade deadline in my league that I had him. I got Tre Mason, Cooks, and 2 first rounders in 2015. Ended up being 1.06 and 1.10

Much of the recent discussion here has been about preferring Julio, Dez, Beckham, etc. to Calvin. Those positions are debatable.

But I'd rather have Calvin (and 3 other rostered players) than the group you got in your trade.

Yeah, he didnt sell high.

That return would be debatable right NOW.

I disagree, I made the playoffs, but would have lost in the 1st round regardless. So now it looks like I dealt Calvin for Cooks, Agholor/Parker at 1.06, Abdullah, Yeldon, DBG, Perriman at 1.10 and I have a verbal agreement with the owner of the 1.01 pick to trade Mason for 2.6 as long as he takes Gurley at 1.01 at our draft in about 3 weeks

Yeah, that's a great haul for Calvin. Cooks isn't going much later in start ups than Calvin, and throwing in those two rookies puts it over the top for me. Definite win for you

 

[zilladog]

Definitely not the year to sell Calvin.

Last year was.

Edit: just noticed this thread started last year. In that case, YES!

 

[georg013]

Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.

 

[zilladog]

Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.

I was thinking merely in terms of stock price. His value is already at or below some of the younger wide receivers. If you want to cash at at max value, I'd sell now.

 

[georg013]

Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.

I was thinking merely in terms of stock price. His value is already at or below some of the younger wide receivers. If you want to cash at at max value, I'd sell now.

Another year in the offense, time off to heal, constant chatter of decline, Calvin Johnson's value will rise once again.

 

[msudaisy26]

Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.

I was thinking merely in terms of stock price. His value is already at or below some of the younger wide receivers. If you want to cash at at max value, I'd sell now.

Another year in the offense, time off to heal, constant chatter of decline, Calvin Johnson's value will rise once again.

I disagree, another year of getting to a more balanced offense. A new back that is going to steal touches away, Ebron should be improved as well.

 

[georg013]

You cant possibly believe Calvin Johnson is going to do worse than last season do you? He missed 3 games and played a decoy in two others. Outside of those games he was the same old Calvin. Go back and check his numbers on a game by game basis. He managed 70+ catches, 1000 yards, and 8 tds in 11 games, the first year in a new offense, while banged up. I have to believe the arrow is pointing up for the guy. I think people are so infatuated with the newest, youngest, shiniest toys that they abandon the classics too soon. Thats fine. I only have to concern myself with my team. Calvin will be better than fine next season and if I feel the need to sell, it will be after he returns to being the top receiver in fantasy football. Stay tuned!

 

[jeaton6]

You cant possibly believe Calvin Johnson is going to do worse than last season do you? He missed 3 games and played a decoy in two others. Outside of those games he was the same old Calvin. Go back and check his numbers on a game by game basis. He managed 70+ catches, 1000 yards, and 8 tds in 11 games, the first year in a new offense, while banged up. I have to believe the arrow is pointing up for the guy. I think people are so infatuated with the newest, youngest, shiniest toys that they abandon the classics too soon. Thats fine. I only have to concern myself with my team. Calvin will be better than fine next season and if I feel the need to sell, it will be after he returns to being the top receiver in fantasy football. Stay tuned!

I think last year people were too high on him value wise and this year people are way too low. I agree he is going to have a big year. Tate is the one whose value is way overblown. I think he puts up a top 5 season easily and the only thing that will stop him from doing so consistently for the foreseeable future is injury.

 

[Uncle Grandpa]

For the sake of valuation, I'm currently in a start-up dynasty auction and he's the twelfth highest paid WR behind the likes of Cobb, TY Hilton, Hopkins, and Jeffery.

 

[ghostguy123]

Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.

I was thinking merely in terms of stock price. His value is already at or below some of the younger wide receivers. If you want to cash at at max value, I'd sell now.

Another year in the offense, time off to heal, constant chatter of decline, Calvin Johnson's value will rise once again.

I disagree, another year of getting to a more balanced offense. A new back that is going to steal touches away, Ebron should be improved as well.

Right. It doesnt matter what Calvin does this year. The time to sell in terms of just trade value was last year.

Even if he has a huge year his value won't be higher than it was last year. He was viewed as a super stud then, and would be viewed as a super stud next year, but 2 years older. Increase in value??? How??

 

[georg013]

Some of the trades I have seen people mulling over have been absolutely ridiculous. In that sense, I feel like his value can increase. Will they ever be back to age 25 levels? Of course not. But right now, he is severely undervalued and talk about his decline is overblown. Again, 18 year old rookies with half seasons of production under their belt is all the rage right now.

 

[ghostguy123]

Some of the trades I have seen people mulling over have been absolutely ridiculous. In that sense, I feel like his value can increase. Will they ever be back to age 25 levels? Of course not. But right now, he is severely undervalued and talk about his decline is overblown. Again, 18 year old rookies with half seasons of production under their belt is all the rage right now.

Sure, a great season can increase the value that he seems to have right now, but he lost a pretty huge amount of value from one year ago today.

If by 18 year old rookies with half seasons under their belt you mean Beckham, I easily take OBJ. You only have to be right half the time to come out ahead on a move like that with that drastic of an age difference, and I am more than confident the chances of OBJ continuing studly play is greater than 50%

I do agree thought that right this second Calvin looks to be undervalued, although in the two leagues I was trying to trade for him he still commands mega-deal status to those owners.

I just think it's a case of 1 in every 25 leagues has a guy low on Calvin who trades him fairly cheap, but we see those trades on here and think his universal value took a giant hit. Not sure it has, but it clearly has with at least a small percentage of people who owned Calvin.

 

[Eminence]

Calvin will be a gem until the day he retires.

 

[georg013]

Calvin will be a gem until the day he retires.

Bingo.

 

[zilladog]

You cant possibly believe Calvin Johnson is going to do worse than last season do you? He missed 3 games and played a decoy in two others. Outside of those games he was the same old Calvin. Go back and check his numbers on a game by game basis. He managed 70+ catches, 1000 yards, and 8 tds in 11 games, the first year in a new offense, while banged up. I have to believe the arrow is pointing up for the guy. I think people are so infatuated with the newest, youngest, shiniest toys that they abandon the classics too soon. Thats fine. I only have to concern myself with my team. Calvin will be better than fine next season and if I feel the need to sell, it will be after he returns to being the top receiver in fantasy football. Stay tuned!

The problem is, he can do everything right from here on, score like his best years of the past, and still go down in value. That's why you sell. Not because of numbers, but because of retaining max value in Trade.

Now, one could also look at this as an opportunity to buy, and then ride him into the sunset. A perfectly sound strategy if you're not an age averse owner.

 

[Shutout]

You cant possibly believe Calvin Johnson is going to do worse than last season do you? He missed 3 games and played a decoy in two others. Outside of those games he was the same old Calvin. Go back and check his numbers on a game by game basis. He managed 70+ catches, 1000 yards, and 8 tds in 11 games, the first year in a new offense, while banged up. I have to believe the arrow is pointing up for the guy. I think people are so infatuated with the newest, youngest, shiniest toys that they abandon the classics too soon. Thats fine. I only have to concern myself with my team. Calvin will be better than fine next season and if I feel the need to sell, it will be after he returns to being the top receiver in fantasy football. Stay tuned!

The problem is, he can do everything right from here on, score like his best years of the past, and still go down in value. That's why you sell. Not because of numbers, but because of retaining max value in Trade.

Now, one could also look at this as an opportunity to buy, and then ride him into the sunset. A perfectly sound strategy if you're not an age averse owner.

Calvin is one of these guys, IMO, like Andre Johnson, like Reggie Wayne, like Hines Ward, in that there comes a time when you can actually buy low (relatively speaking) on him and its perfectly fine to do so because the shine has worn off but a vast majority of the production is still there. So if you have a team that is looking to be contending for a few years, there are worse things you can do than have a 33 year old Calvin Johnson on your team.

 

[blardorg]

Some of the trades I have seen people mulling over have been absolutely ridiculous. In that sense, I feel like his value can increase. Will they ever be back to age 25 levels? Of course not. But right now, he is severely undervalued and talk about his decline is overblown. Again, 18 year old rookies with half seasons of production under their belt is all the rage right now.

Sure, a great season can increase the value that he seems to have right now, but he lost a pretty huge amount of value from one year ago today.

If by 18 year old rookies with half seasons under their belt you mean Beckham, I easily take OBJ. You only have to be right half the time to come out ahead on a move like that with that drastic of an age difference, and I am more than confident the chances of OBJ continuing studly play is greater than 50%

I do agree thought that right this second Calvin looks to be undervalued, although in the two leagues I was trying to trade for him he still commands mega-deal status to those owners.

I just think it's a case of 1 in every 25 leagues has a guy low on Calvin who trades him fairly cheap, but we see those trades on here and think his universal value took a giant hit. Not sure it has, but it clearly has with at least a small percentage of people who owned Calvin.

Yeah, right this second is not the time to sell him. Wait til he shows up and has a monstrous first couple games. I don't think anyone is saying his value hasn't taken a hit since 2013/before 2014 season, but right now people have this perception that he's not just old, he's bad now too. Waiting til he puts up some good numbers will erase that concern, that he has become ineffective. I'm personally looking to buy where I can, as I don't think he'll be as cheap as he is now for another 2-3 years. I've seen people pay a late 1st/early 2nd for Andre Johnson this offseason, so I'm not at all worried about holding Megatron til he's 33 and getting stuck trading him for peanuts.

Of course, that presupposes he really is going to come back and look like vintage Megatron when he's healthy! If not, then I'll eat the cost of the mid 1st or mid 1st + 2nd that I'm trying to buy him with, ya know? But it would be worth the chance to snag him so cheaply.

 

[CalBear]

You cant possibly believe Calvin Johnson is going to do worse than last season do you? He missed 3 games and played a decoy in two others. Outside of those games he was the same old Calvin. Go back and check his numbers on a game by game basis. He managed 70+ catches, 1000 yards, and 8 tds in 11 games, the first year in a new offense, while banged up. I have to believe the arrow is pointing up for the guy. I think people are so infatuated with the newest, youngest, shiniest toys that they abandon the classics too soon. Thats fine. I only have to concern myself with my team. Calvin will be better than fine next season and if I feel the need to sell, it will be after he returns to being the top receiver in fantasy football. Stay tuned!

The problem is, he can do everything right from here on, score like his best years of the past, and still go down in value. That's why you sell. Not because of numbers, but because of retaining max value in Trade.

Now, one could also look at this as an opportunity to buy, and then ride him into the sunset. A perfectly sound strategy if you're not an age averse owner.

"Calvin Johnson's trade value will go down in his 30s" is not news, but it's also not interesting. His dynasty trade value has been going down since he was 26; that happens to all players.

What is real dynasty value based on? The number of points he'll score above the baseline for the rest of his career. So the interesting question is not whether his trade value will go down; the question is whether his trade value will go down by more or less than his actual value. Because whether he puts up 1400/12 or 1000/7 this year, his trade value will be lower next year than it is now.

If he puts up 1400/12, his trade value will go down by less than the actual value you realized by keeping him. Put another way, selling him at today's price would have likely provided you less real value than keeping him and putting him in your lineup would have.

 

[Faust]

Why Calvin Johnson Could Be 2015's Biggest Fantasy Football Steal

 

[Faust]

NFC North Q&A: Is Calvin Johnson still the division's most feared skill-position player?

 

[zilladog]

You cant possibly believe Calvin Johnson is going to do worse than last season do you? He missed 3 games and played a decoy in two others. Outside of those games he was the same old Calvin. Go back and check his numbers on a game by game basis. He managed 70+ catches, 1000 yards, and 8 tds in 11 games, the first year in a new offense, while banged up. I have to believe the arrow is pointing up for the guy. I think people are so infatuated with the newest, youngest, shiniest toys that they abandon the classics too soon. Thats fine. I only have to concern myself with my team. Calvin will be better than fine next season and if I feel the need to sell, it will be after he returns to being the top receiver in fantasy football. Stay tuned!

The problem is, he can do everything right from here on, score like his best years of the past, and still go down in value. That's why you sell. Not because of numbers, but because of retaining max value in Trade.Now, one could also look at this as an opportunity to buy, and then ride him into the sunset. A perfectly sound strategy if you're not an age averse owner.

"Calvin Johnson's trade value will go down in his 30s" is not news, but it's also not interesting. His dynasty trade value has been going down since he was 26; that happens to all players.

What is real dynasty value based on? The number of points he'll score above the baseline for the rest of his career. So the interesting question is not whether his trade value will go down; the question is whether his trade value will go down by more or less than his actual value. Because whether he puts up 1400/12 or 1000/7 this year, his trade value will be lower next year than it is now.

If he puts up 1400/12, his trade value will go down by less than the actual value you realized by keeping him. Put another way, selling him at today's price would have likely provided you less real value than keeping him and putting him in your lineup would have.

I agree with this in a vacuum. However, we have to account for what you get back in Trade. If it's just a early/mid first or so, then yeah, probably better to keep. If you can get a haul of young prospects and picks (obj before the breakout types), then sell for sure.The only issue I am raising here, is that whatever you get back in Trade will continue to diminish starting from about last yearish. When you reach the point in Your league where the return in Trade you can get isn't conducive with his future studly production, then its already too late to sell and you may as well ride out the rest of his career.

 

[CalBear]

You cant possibly believe Calvin Johnson is going to do worse than last season do you? He missed 3 games and played a decoy in two others. Outside of those games he was the same old Calvin. Go back and check his numbers on a game by game basis. He managed 70+ catches, 1000 yards, and 8 tds in 11 games, the first year in a new offense, while banged up. I have to believe the arrow is pointing up for the guy. I think people are so infatuated with the newest, youngest, shiniest toys that they abandon the classics too soon. Thats fine. I only have to concern myself with my team. Calvin will be better than fine next season and if I feel the need to sell, it will be after he returns to being the top receiver in fantasy football. Stay tuned!

The problem is, he can do everything right from here on, score like his best years of the past, and still go down in value. That's why you sell. Not because of numbers, but because of retaining max value in Trade.Now, one could also look at this as an opportunity to buy, and then ride him into the sunset. A perfectly sound strategy if you're not an age averse owner.

"Calvin Johnson's trade value will go down in his 30s" is not news, but it's also not interesting. His dynasty trade value has been going down since he was 26; that happens to all players.

What is real dynasty value based on? The number of points he'll score above the baseline for the rest of his career. So the interesting question is not whether his trade value will go down; the question is whether his trade value will go down by more or less than his actual value. Because whether he puts up 1400/12 or 1000/7 this year, his trade value will be lower next year than it is now.

If he puts up 1400/12, his trade value will go down by less than the actual value you realized by keeping him. Put another way, selling him at today's price would have likely provided you less real value than keeping him and putting him in your lineup would have.

I agree with this in a vacuum. However, we have to account for what you get back in Trade. If it's just a early/mid first or so, then yeah, probably better to keep. If you can get a haul of young prospects and picks (obj before the breakout types), then sell for sure.The only issue I am raising here, is that whatever you get back in Trade will continue to diminish starting from about last yearish. When you reach the point in Your league where the return in Trade you can get isn't conducive with his future studly production, then its already too late to sell and you may as well ride out the rest of his career.

Most dynasty players over-value youth and under-value production, which means that for a stud like Calvin with potentially several more huge years left in him, you're not going to get back in trade what you could get in production. You might get lucky and get the next ODB, but for every ODB there are 10 Tavon Austins.

 

[Tau837]

Most dynasty players over-value youth and under-value production, which means that for a stud like Calvin with potentially several more huge years left in him, you're not going to get back in trade what you could get in production. You might get lucky and get the next ODB, but for every ODB there are 10 Tavon Austins.

 

[Faust]

Calvin Johnson: I still have some good years left

 

[Raider Nation]

He looks like Just A Guy out there.

 

[lod01]

Herminated by the coaching staff.

 

[cstu]

georg013, on 20 Jun 2015 - 5:51 PM, said:

You cant possibly believe Calvin Johnson is going to do worse than last season do you? He missed 3 games and played a decoy in two others. Outside of those games he was the same old Calvin. Go back and check his numbers on a game by game basis. He managed 70+ catches, 1000 yards, and 8 tds in 11 games, the first year in a new offense, while banged up. I have to believe the arrow is pointing up for the guy. I think people are so infatuated with the newest, youngest, shiniest toys that they abandon the classics too soon. Thats fine. I only have to concern myself with my team. Calvin will be better than fine next season and if I feel the need to sell, it will be after he returns to being the top receiver in fantasy football. Stay tuned!

 

[ConnSKINS26]

One game does not a season make. But it is annoying. He looked good on that early 28-yarder.

 

[oswizzle]

This dude is whack....ever since Golden Tate has been there...he hasn't

 

[ponchsox]

I thought is was crazy talk when people were taking this guy right after the studs. Glad I didn't drink the kool-aid.

 

[chad in Indy]

I didn't watch the game, but the stats don't look good for Stafford. Did he not have time? Looks like almost double the passes to RBs/TEs v WRs

 

[cstu]

I didn't watch the game, but the stats don't look good for Stafford. Did he not have time? Looks like almost double the passes to RBs/TEs v WRs

He's just Stafford.

He'll probably throw for 400 next week with 200 of it to Calvin.

 

[trader jake]

Herminated by the coaching staff.

Agreed. Game script looked good early for the Lions and they got very conservative. On the road with Rivers on the other side, that seemed like a bad decision and it eventually bit Detroit in he backside. It was the opposite of the game they someone won in London last season against the Falcons.

 

[lod01]

Herminated by the coaching staff.

Agreed. Game script looked good early for the Lions and they got very conservative. On the road with Rivers on the other side, that seemed like a bad decision and it eventually bit Detroit in he backside. It was the opposite of the game they someone won in London last season against the Falcons.

They've been doing this ever since Caldwell arrived. Their offensive philosophy is pee wee league.

 

[Shutout]

I can't believe I sit on my couch each week while guys get paid big money to gameplay targeting Tate more than Megatron and then sticking their head in the sand.

 

[georg013]

Caldwell needs to be cut loose.

 

[lod01]

Caldwell needs to be cut loose.

And take 'way in over his head' Joe Lombardi with him.

On the fifth snap of the game, Johnson turned a short pass into a 28-yard gain. Officially, he had two more targets, but he didn’t touch the ball again until after the 2-minute warning in the fourth quarter.

Part of their m.o. is to let the other team come back and take the lead while ignoring the best player on the field, then attempt a futile comeback in the 4th Q. How the #### did this idiot become a HC.

Matthew Stafford’s explanation of why he only threw to the best Lions player four times surely won’t satisfy anyone.

“We’re just trying to take what the defense gives us,” he said.

Hey Stafford, grow a pair of balls. You too Calvin. Jerry Rice or Randy Moss would have been right in Lombardi's face, straightening him out. The guy is obviously clueless.

In order for Calvin to get the ball, the Lions are going to need to lose more games just like this in the coming weeks. If they would have pulled this out of their ###, like they did last year, Calvin will be ignored. Fortunately the Lions D is not good now. However, it will take a month or 2 for Caldwell to figure out that his philosophy of pulling #### out of his ### in the 4th Q, doesn't work.

 

[Shutout]

Caldwell needs to be cut loose.

And take 'way in over his head' Joe Lombardi with him.

On the fifth snap of the game, Johnson turned a short pass into a 28-yard gain. Officially, he had two more targets, but he didn’t touch the ball again until after the 2-minute warning in the fourth quarter.

Part of their m.o. is to let the other team come back and take the lead while ignoring the best player on the field, then attempt a futile comeback in the 4th Q. How the #### did this idiot become a HC.

Matthew Stafford’s explanation of why he only threw to the best Lions player four times surely won’t satisfy anyone.

“We’re just trying to take what the defense gives us,” he said.

Hey Stafford, grow a pair of balls. You too Calvin. Jerry Rice or Randy Moss would have been right in Lombardi's face, straightening him out. The guy is obviously clueless.

In order for Calvin to get the ball, the Lions are going to need to lose more games just like this in the coming weeks. If they would have pulled this out of their ###, like they did last year, Calvin will be ignored. Fortunately the Lions D is not good now. However, it will take a month or 2 for Caldwell to figure out that his philosophy of pulling #### out of his ### in the 4th Q, doesn't work.

That's just the culture instilled by the personality of the coach. Not much Stafford can do about it without being a contrarian and "not a team player". But what do you expect from Caldwell? He's always going to be conservative and not possess that killer instinct.