Is this a mistake? (1 Viewer)

[wilked]

Not necessarily. Tiki accounted for something like 42% of the offense last season, and the Giants definitely want to have a more diversified workload this year. One major goal is to get the WR's more involved, so they'll spread the ball around a bit more in the passing game, which will equate to fewer catches. They also want to keep Tiki fresher by using other backs, too.

That would also make him more effective.

They also want to keep Tiki fresher by using other backs, too.

Insert year here ______. Every year they say the same thing. Every year Tiki gets undervalued.

Hypothetically, let's say Tiki gets 280 rushes and forty catches, that's still 20 touches per week, which is plenty of involvement on a per game basis but a considerable dip from 2004.

Hypothetically using your stats Tiki would still be good enough for top 15. Michael Pittman was the #16 back with these stats 219-926-7, 41-391-9.5-3

Pittman had 10 TD's to boost his value, though....My personal feelings aside, most other people seem to feel that Barber will be in the 6-7 range.

Who are most people? You might want to revisit this threadhttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...58950&hl=barber

 

[JerseyPaul]

Here's what I take from this discussion...Tiki's TDs are unpredictable. He should probably be spotted based on 1600 total yards, 50 receptions and 9TDs. Thats about 200 points w/o ppr and 250 with ppr. He could easily be 25 points more or 25 points less.Based on last year's results (names irrelevant), that conservative view has Tiki as RB8 in ppr leagues with an upside of RB7 and a downside of RB10. Tiki taken late in the 1st round is a solid choice, with an expectation of consistent production in yards/rec and some TDs as sweeteners. There's half a dozen RBs with very similar expectations. My guess is is won't really matter which of these guys falls (Duece, Portis, DD, McGahee, Bell, Rudi, KJ, etc.). I believe that 2005 results will depend on picking the bust out WR.

 

[jurb26]

Pittman had 10 TD's to boost his value, though....My personal feelings aside, most other people seem to feel that Barber will be in the 6-7 range.

Pittman also had 60 less carries. And I'm only using YOUR hypothetical doom and gloom numbers. Barring injury there's no reason to think Barber won't see 300 carries again even if his reception dip to 40.

What do you mean, the reasons are right there for him to not see 300+ carries again:

|          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1997 nyg |  12 |   136    511    3.8    3 |    34    299   8.8    1 || 1998 nyg |  16 |    52    166    3.2    0 |    42    348   8.3    3 || 1999 nyg |  16 |    62    258    4.2    0 |    66    609   9.2    2 || 2000 nyg |  16 |   213   1006    4.7    8 |    70    719  10.3    1 || 2001 nyg |  14 |   166    865    5.2    4 |    72    577   8.0    0 || 2002 nyg |  16 |   303   1386    4.6   11 |    69    597   8.7    0 || 2003 nyg |  16 |   278   1216    4.4    2 |    69    461   6.7    1 || 2004 nyg |  16 |   322   1518    4.7   13 |    52    578  11.1    2

He has only seen that many carries 2 times in his career. On top of that he stated that he would like less of a load, the team drafted a GL runner and breather guy, and the O looks to focus more on getting the WRs involved. This is not a perenial 300 carry RB to begin with and all of the news/actions of the team have renforced that he will see less work this year.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Correct! CuMar 2003

The similarities between Martin that season and Barber this year are similar. Same coach from the previous year decides to sit a proven commodity for a youger back at the GL. (IIRC from previous post Martin and Barber have roughly the same TD/carry ratio, too). Both squads feature a young QB in his second year as starter, too. People poo-poo'ed the idea of Martin taking a major hit in TD's as a result of Jordan in the pre-season of 2003, too....deja vu....

XCuMar TDs = 2

Jordan TDs = 4

How is that a hit? The Jets just stunk on offense that year. They finished 27th in rushing TDs, 24th in points scored and 29th in rushing attempts. Your offense stinking and not scoring any points != you lose carries at the goalline. What were the TDs for CuMar and Jordan last year when they were 17th in scoring, 3rd in rushing attempts and 11th in rushing TDs?

TIA

 

[wilked]

Here's what I take from this discussion...

Tiki's TDs are unpredictable. He should probably be spotted based on 1600 total yards, 50 receptions and 9TDs. Thats about 200 points w/o ppr and 250 with ppr. He could easily be 25 points more or 25 points less.

Based on last year's results (names irrelevant), that conservative view has Tiki as RB8 in ppr leagues with an upside of RB7 and a downside of RB10. Tiki taken late in the 1st round is a solid choice, with an expectation of consistent production in yards/rec and some TDs as sweeteners. There's half a dozen RBs with very similar expectations. My guess is is won't really matter which of these guys falls (Duece, Portis, DD, McGahee, Bell, Rudi, KJ, etc.).

I believe that 2005 results will depend on picking the bust out WR.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Just seeing your long sig make my balls ache. Whats the point? No one cares.

Thanks for your insightful comments about Tiki Barber.

 

[H.K.]

Correct!  CuMar 2003

The similarities between Martin that season and Barber this year are similar. Same coach from the previous year decides to sit a proven commodity for a youger back at the GL. (IIRC from previous post Martin and Barber have roughly the same TD/carry ratio, too). Both squads feature a young QB in his second year as starter, too.  People poo-poo'ed the idea of Martin taking a major hit in TD's as a result of Jordan in the pre-season of 2003, too....deja vu....

XCuMar TDs = 2

Jordan TDs = 4

How is that a hit? The Jets just stunk on offense that year. They finished 27th in rushing TDs, 24th in points scored and 29th in rushing attempts. Your offense stinking and not scoring any points != you lose carries at the goalline. What were the TDs for CuMar and Jordan last year when they were 17th in scoring, 3rd in rushing attempts and 11th in rushing TDs?

TIA

precisely. The Giants offense scored 20.6 PPG with Warner and only averaged 16.7 PPG with Eli. Tiki's stats also took a dive with Eli at the helm.

 

[Snotbubbles]

precisely. The Giants offense scored 20.6 PPG with Warner and only averaged 16.7 PPG with Eli. Tiki's stats also took a dive with Eli at the helm.

Once again:Look at the schedule he faced.With Warner: PHI, WAS, CLE, GNB, DAL, DET, MIN, CHI, ARIWith Manning: ATL, PHI, WAS, BAL, PIT, CIN, DAL.Alot tougher.

 

[H.K.]

what if there is an FBG Mag "cover jinx"? has anyone considered that possibility?

Yep, you guys need to give refunds to Tiki owners for applying that jinx, as soon as I saw Tiki on your cover I screamed: "NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!" and then had interspersed moments of

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

precisely. The Giants offense scored 20.6 PPG with Warner and only averaged 16.7 PPG with Eli. Tiki's stats also took a dive with Eli at the helm.

Wow it only took you 5 pages to make a considerably better argument than some garbage about what Tiki did in 1997 and that time he fell off his bike and skinned his knee on a football field when he was 12 and it made him scared of goalline carries.If your argument = "I think the Giants offense will stink next year and it will hurt Tiki's chances at the goalline and in general" I find no fault with it and it does concern me.

If your argument = "back a long time ago when he was a backup and splitting time with a first round draft pick, he was still getting a good # of TDs but not the magical 11 and I factor that into my rankings weighting it by 99.9999% and therefore he will only get 3 carries then get kidnapped by the Redskins defense for all those years he abused them" then no, I don't agree and it makes zero sense.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

precisely. The Giants offense scored 20.6 PPG with Warner and only averaged 16.7 PPG with Eli. Tiki's stats also took a dive with Eli at the helm.

Once again:Look at the schedule he faced.

With Warner: PHI, WAS, CLE, GNB, DAL, DET, MIN, CHI, ARI

With Manning: ATL, PHI, WAS, BAL, PIT, CIN, DAL.

Alot tougher.

And he still scored 4 rushing TDs those last 7 games.

 

[H.K.]

precisely. The Giants offense scored 20.6 PPG with Warner and only averaged 16.7 PPG with Eli. Tiki's stats also took a dive with Eli at the helm.

Once again:Look at the schedule he faced.

With Warner: PHI, WAS, CLE, GNB, DAL, DET, MIN, CHI, ARI

With Manning: ATL, PHI, WAS, BAL, PIT, CIN, DAL.

Alot tougher.

Good point, but won't they be playing some good defenses next year too? Like the ones in their division that they have to play twice?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

precisely. The Giants offense scored 20.6 PPG with Warner and only averaged 16.7 PPG with Eli. Tiki's stats also took a dive with Eli at the helm.

Once again:Look at the schedule he faced.

With Warner: PHI, WAS, CLE, GNB, DAL, DET, MIN, CHI, ARI

With Manning: ATL, PHI, WAS, BAL, PIT, CIN, DAL.

Alot tougher.

Good point, but won't they be playing some good defenses next year too? Like the ones in their division that they have to play twice?

Considering what he put up against Philly and Dallas last year, I wouldn't have a problem with it.

 

[H.K.]

precisely. The Giants offense scored 20.6 PPG with Warner and only averaged 16.7 PPG with Eli. Tiki's stats also took a dive with Eli at the helm.

Wow it only took you 5 pages to make a considerably better argument than some garbage about what Tiki did in 1997 and that time he fell off his bike and skinned his knee on a football field when he was 12 and it made him scared of goalline carries.If your argument = "I think the Giants offense will stink next year and it will hurt Tiki's chances at the goalline and in general" I find no fault with it and it does concern me.

If your argument = "back a long time ago when he was a backup and splitting time with a first round draft pick, he was still getting a good # of TDs but not the magical 11 and I factor that into my rankings weighting it by 99.9999% and therefore he will only get 3 carries then get kidnapped by the Redskins defense for all those years he abused them" then no, I don't agree and it makes zero sense.

Settle down big fella, for your edification and enjoyment here is my entire evaluation on Tiki from the POD series -

Tiki will not perform up to his 2005 ADP because:

1) Last season 10 of Tiki's 15 TD's were scored inside the five yard line. Coughlin has stated that he will give those opportunities to Jacobs this year. Last season was an anomaly in that regard for Coughlin because Dayne fell apart and ruined Coughlin's plans for him. Coughlin was notorious for using red zone specialists in Jax, so it should surprise nobody that he specifically drafted a guy just to score TD's and convert 3rd and short.

2) Barber accounted for 42% of the Giants total offense in 2004, this number can go nowhere but down in 2005. This coming season we will see an erosion of dump offs to Tiki and an increase in targets to Shockey and jump balls to Burress. Coughlin wants a much more diversified offense this season instead of just riding one guy.

3) Tiki's involvement in the passing game when Eli became the QB were drastically reduced. In Warner's nine starts, Barber had 463 yards receiving compared to Manning's seven starts where he only managed 115 yards.

4) Tiki has been in the league eight seasons. He has been a Top 10 FF RB twice, Top 5 only once (last season). He has never been a Top Ten FF RB two consecutive years and the past five seasons have seen a large variance in his production. He pretty much defines the "every other year" player.

5) Giant WR's had one TD catch in 2004....one! The addition of Burress gives a nice new target for the red zone, so it is safe to assume that WR TD's will increase in 2005 and eat into Tiki's totals from last season.

Assuming he stays healthy as he hits the dreaded "RB at 30 years-old" barrier, Barber still can be a decent to good yardage guy. However, anyone drafting him as an RB1 will see their FF season end at that exact moment.

Projection

268 carries 1121 yards 4.2 avg. 2 TD

45 recept 361 yards 1 TD

 

[Snotbubbles]

Giants Schedule:Sep 11 Arizona 4:15pm Sep 18 @New Orleans 1:00pm Sep 25 @San Diego 8:30pm Oct 2 St. Louis 1:00pm Week 5 BYE Oct 16 @Dallas 1:00pm Oct 23 Denver 4:15pm Oct 30 Washington 1:00pm Nov 6 @San Francisco 4:05pm Nov 13 Minnesota 1:00pm Nov 20 Philadelphia 1:00pm Nov 27 @Seattle 4:15pm Dec 4 Dallas 1:00pm Dec 11 @Philadelphia 4:05pm Dec 17 Kansas City 5:00pm Dec 24 @Washington 1:00pm Dec 31 @Oakland 8:00pmEDIT: Out of conference games 2004: CLE, GB, DET, MIN, CHI, ARI, ATL, BAL, PIT, CINOut of conference games 2005: ARI, NO, SD, STL, DEN, SF, MIN, SEA, KC, OAK

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Out of conference games 2005: ARI, NO, SD, STL, DEN, SF, MIN, SEA, KC, OAK

Holy frigging crap. Time to upgrade the NFC East in general.

 

[QuickDraw McGraw]

http://img181.echo.cx/img181/6322/05270514097pb.jpg

 

[H.K.]

http://img181.echo.cx/img181/6322/05270514097pb.jpg

Post of the Year!!!!

 

[bagger.]

No, I just think that several other RBs (granted they stay healthy) will do better than that and thus Tiki.  Like I said, we have an unusualy high amount of quality RBs this year.

Sounds like every offseason the last several years.

I was thinking the same thing. Every year there are a bunch of "breakout RBs" only a few of which actually produce. As such people draft on hype over past performance. This is why CMart and Tiki are always so underrated in terms of their ADP.

 

[MightyMice]

I agree with H.K. that Jacobs should steal a bunch of goalline carries from Tiki this year.

But, with enough carries, Tiki could still have a decent chance at 8-10 total TDs so I'm not sure I'd agree that 11 is "impossible". Brian Westbrook scored 11 TDs in 2003 without getting a ton of goalline work.

This is eerily reminiscent to the discussion that Ron Dayne was going to somehow take away fantasy production from Tiki last year. And yet Tiki gave drafters tremendous value.I'll believe that Mike f'ing Cloud will steal production away from Tiki when I see it.

I love Tiki. No matter how well he does every year he is projected by the majority of people to produce lower than he will.

Keep up this talk, I'll gladly take him at a cheaper price than I should be able to.

Yeah the value was great last year, but where was it the year before or in 2001?

In 2001 when he finished 14th, in 2002 when he finished 7th...what more do you want from the guy? He finished 2nd last year, but still gets no respect

lol exactly.Tiki is a perennial top 15 / top 10 back and many "sharks" here think that last year was the first time he did anything.

this is why i love Tiki...every year there is some excuse why he won't perform, and yet he does.

Barber's rank over the years:
Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------1997           0            34            1271998           0            44            1791999           0            32            1322000          67            13             312001          33            14             372002         112             7              82003          44            15             342004         142             2              4http://www.profootballreference.com/players/BarbTi00.htmPS, the year before 2004 was 2003 not 2002. He finished 15th that year.

Bagger,

Yeah he is a perennial top 15 RB. He is NOT a perennial top 10 RB though which it seems a lot of people are trying to make him out to be.

What was the point differential between his 13, 14, and 15 rank and #10 of those years? Probably not too significant, but maybe I am wrong. I understand that he is not a top 10 back year in and year out, but he is real close.

I agree it was probably close. I am perfectly comortable ranking Tiki as a top 15 RB year in year out. Just not top 10 and certainly not top 5 is all.

Yes, he finished 14th, 7th, 15th, and 2nd over the last four seasons. So he HAS FINISHED in the top ten exactly as many times as he has not, and been top 15 all four. But then you see that he only play 14 games in 2001, when he finished 14th. That year he scored 156.2 points in standard leagues (no ppr, 1 point per 10 yds rush/rec) or an average of 11.15 ppg. Give Tiki credit for being durable and these being the only two games he's missed due to injury since 1997, and add the 22.3 points to his total and you have the #10 RB in 2001.

In other words, he was on pace for a top ten finish but was hurt and missed the only two games of his career since 1997. That would be three top ten finishes in four years for Mr. Underrated.

 

[MightyMice]

Settle down big fella, for your edification and enjoyment here is my entire evaluation on Tiki from the POD series -

Tiki will not perform up to his 2005 ADP because:

1) Last season 10 of Tiki's 15 TD's were scored inside the five yard line. Coughlin has stated that he will give those opportunities to Jacobs this year. Last season was an anomaly in that regard for Coughlin because Dayne fell apart and ruined Coughlin's plans for him. Coughlin was notorious for using red zone specialists in Jax, so it should surprise nobody that he specifically drafted a guy just to score TD's and convert 3rd and short.

2) Barber accounted for 42% of the Giants total offense in 2004, this number can go nowhere but down in 2005. This coming season we will see an erosion of dump offs to Tiki and an increase in targets to Shockey and jump balls to Burress. Coughlin wants a much more diversified offense this season instead of just riding one guy.

3) Tiki's involvement in the passing game when Eli became the QB were drastically reduced. In Warner's nine starts, Barber had 463 yards receiving compared to Manning's seven starts where he only managed 115 yards.

4) Tiki has been in the league eight seasons. He has been a Top 10 FF RB twice, Top 5 only once (last season). He has never been a Top Ten FF RB two consecutive years and the past five seasons have seen a large variance in his production. He pretty much defines the "every other year" player.

5) Giant WR's had one TD catch in 2004....one! The addition of Burress gives a nice new target for the red zone, so it is safe to assume that WR TD's will increase in 2005 and eat into Tiki's totals from last season.

Assuming he stays healthy as he hits the dreaded "RB at 30 years-old" barrier, Barber still can be a decent to good yardage guy. However, anyone drafting him as an RB1 will see their FF season end at that exact moment.

Projection

268 carries 1121 yards 4.2 avg. 2 TD

45 recept 361 yards 1 TD

I could see this scenario very easily...

 

[H.K.]

No, I just think that several other RBs (granted they stay healthy) will do better than that and thus Tiki.  Like I said, we have an unusualy high amount of quality RBs this year.

Sounds like every offseason the last several years.

I was thinking the same thing. Every year there are a bunch of "breakout RBs" only a few of which actually produce. As such people draft on hype over past performance. This is why CMart and Tiki are always so underrated in terms of their ADP.

You just hit the nail on the head, but this year it works against Tiki. 2005 sees Barber being projected as a top 10 RB, so it makes it much tougher for him to live up to his ADP. In fact, many people will be drafting him in the first round and expecting a repeat of last year's numbers. Barber would have value if he could still be drafted in rounds 2-3, but that is unlikely after he finished as the #2 RB in most scoring systems last season.

 

[wilked]

I agree with H.K. that Jacobs should steal a bunch of goalline carries from Tiki this year.

But, with enough carries, Tiki could still have a decent chance at 8-10 total TDs so I'm not sure I'd agree that 11 is "impossible". Brian Westbrook scored 11 TDs in 2003 without getting a ton of goalline work.

This is eerily reminiscent to the discussion that Ron Dayne was going to somehow take away fantasy production from Tiki last year. And yet Tiki gave drafters tremendous value.I'll believe that Mike f'ing Cloud will steal production away from Tiki when I see it.

I love Tiki. No matter how well he does every year he is projected by the majority of people to produce lower than he will.

Keep up this talk, I'll gladly take him at a cheaper price than I should be able to.

Yeah the value was great last year, but where was it the year before or in 2001?

In 2001 when he finished 14th, in 2002 when he finished 7th...what more do you want from the guy? He finished 2nd last year, but still gets no respect

lol exactly.Tiki is a perennial top 15 / top 10 back and many "sharks" here think that last year was the first time he did anything.

this is why i love Tiki...every year there is some excuse why he won't perform, and yet he does.

Barber's rank over the years:
Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------1997           0            34            1271998           0            44            1791999           0            32            1322000          67            13             312001          33            14             372002         112             7              82003          44            15             342004         142             2              4http://www.profootballreference.com/players/BarbTi00.htmPS, the year before 2004 was 2003 not 2002. He finished 15th that year.

Bagger,

Yeah he is a perennial top 15 RB. He is NOT a perennial top 10 RB though which it seems a lot of people are trying to make him out to be.

What was the point differential between his 13, 14, and 15 rank and #10 of those years? Probably not too significant, but maybe I am wrong. I understand that he is not a top 10 back year in and year out, but he is real close.

I agree it was probably close. I am perfectly comortable ranking Tiki as a top 15 RB year in year out. Just not top 10 and certainly not top 5 is all.

Yes, he finished 14th, 7th, 15th, and 7th over the last four seasons. So he HAS FINISHED in the top ten exactly as many times as he has not, and been top 15 all four. But then you see that he only play 14 games in 2001, when he finished 14th. That year he scored 156.2 points in standard leagues (no ppr, 1 point per 10 yds rush/rec) or an average of 11.15 ppg. Give Tiki credit for being durable and these being the only two games he's missed due to injury since 1997, and add the 22.3 points to his total and you have the #10 RB in 2001.

In other words, he was on pace for a top ten finish but was hurt and missed the only two games of his career since 1997. That would be three top ten finishes in four years for Mr. Underrated.

Well written

 

[bagger.]

No, I just think that several other RBs (granted they stay healthy) will do better than that and thus Tiki.  Like I said, we have an unusualy high amount of quality RBs this year.

Sounds like every offseason the last several years.

I was thinking the same thing. Every year there are a bunch of "breakout RBs" only a few of which actually produce. As such people draft on hype over past performance. This is why CMart and Tiki are always so underrated in terms of their ADP.

You just hit the nail on the head, but this year it works against Tiki. 2005 sees Barber being projected as a top 10 RB, so it makes it much tougher for him to live up to his ADP. In fact, many people will be drafting him in the first round and expecting a repeat of last year's numbers. Barber would have value if he could still be drafted in rounds 2-3, but that is unlikely after he finished as the #2 RB in most scoring systems last season.

The ADP I have seen for him is 2.05, which still has some value I think, or at worst is right on. I don't think he is overvalued at all so far in mocks.

 

[wilked]

Agree with bagger, Tiki will rarely go first rd this year

 

[jurb26]

Is there a beating a dead horse smilie anywhere? These arguements have come full circle many times now.

 

[H.K.]

The ADP I have seen for him is 2.05, which still has some value I think, or at worst is right on. I don't think he is overvalued at all so far in mocks.

That puts him aound RB12-14 in a twelve teamer assuming guys like Owens, Manning, C-Pep, etc. go before him...Do you think this represents good value or simply getting what you are paying for? Tiki going in rounds 4-5 isn't happening this year...

 

[H.K.]

Is there a beating a dead horse smilie anywhere? These arguements have come full circle many times now.

Yes, but now I am done working. Thanks to all for my least productive day of the year!Cheers and enjoy the weekend!

 

[jurb26]

The ADP I have seen for him is 2.05, which still has some value I think, or at worst is right on.  I don't think he is overvalued at all so far in mocks.

That puts him aound RB12-14 in a twelve teamer assuming guys like Owens, Manning, C-Pep, etc. go before him...Do you think this represents good value or simply getting what you are paying for? Tiki going in rounds 4-5 isn't happening this year...

Shhhhh.... dont tell them that. Tiki won't make it out of the 2nd round in just about every draft this year I'm content with them thinking that he wil though.

 

[wilked]

If I can get a RB who has finished in the top 15 the past 5 years, with a max finish of 2nd, at RB 14, I am feeling pretty good.Will he be as great of value as last year? No. That is impossible. Does he still represent value being drafted as RB14? Yes, he does

 

[H.K.]

The ADP I have seen for him is 2.05, which still has some value I think, or at worst is right on.  I don't think he is overvalued at all so far in mocks.

That puts him aound RB12-14 in a twelve teamer assuming guys like Owens, Manning, C-Pep, etc. go before him...Do you think this represents good value or simply getting what you are paying for? Tiki going in rounds 4-5 isn't happening this year...

Shhhhh.... dont tell them that. Tiki won't make it out of the 2nd round in just about every draft this year I'm content with them thinking that he wil though.

Obviously you and I are in the same camp on this one, Tiki sitting around RB 16-18 depending on what shakes out in training camp both with the Giants and other situations.Time for a cold one, have a great weekend!

 

[jurb26]

The ADP I have seen for him is 2.05, which still has some value I think, or at worst is right on.  I don't think he is overvalued at all so far in mocks.

That puts him aound RB12-14 in a twelve teamer assuming guys like Owens, Manning, C-Pep, etc. go before him...Do you think this represents good value or simply getting what you are paying for? Tiki going in rounds 4-5 isn't happening this year...

Shhhhh.... dont tell them that. Tiki won't make it out of the 2nd round in just about every draft this year I'm content with them thinking that he wil though.

Obviously you and I are in the same camp on this one, Tiki sitting around RB 16-18 depending on what shakes out in training camp both with the Giants and other situations.Time for a cold one, have a great weekend!

Indeed even though it appears we are in the minority. But hey, genius is often misunderstood.

 

[Real Man of Genius]

Is there a beating a dead horse smilie anywhere? These arguements have come full circle many times now.

 

[bagger.]

The ADP I have seen for him is 2.05, which still has some value I think, or at worst is right on.  I don't think he is overvalued at all so far in mocks.

That puts him aound RB12-14 in a twelve teamer assuming guys like Owens, Manning, C-Pep, etc. go before him...Do you think this represents good value or simply getting what you are paying for? Tiki going in rounds 4-5 isn't happening this year...

I believe I said exactly that in the post you quoted. It has some value or you are getting what you paid for.I do not expect Tiki to be drafted later than the 2nd round this year and never said otherwise.

 

[bagger.]

The ADP I have seen for him is 2.05, which still has some value I think, or at worst is right on.  I don't think he is overvalued at all so far in mocks.

That puts him aound RB12-14 in a twelve teamer assuming guys like Owens, Manning, C-Pep, etc. go before him...Do you think this represents good value or simply getting what you are paying for? Tiki going in rounds 4-5 isn't happening this year...

Shhhhh.... dont tell them that. Tiki won't make it out of the 2nd round in just about every draft this year I'm content with them thinking that he wil though.

When did I say he will go past the 2nd round?

 

[bagger.]

The ADP I have seen for him is 2.05, which still has some value I think, or at worst is right on.  I don't think he is overvalued at all so far in mocks.

That puts him aound RB12-14 in a twelve teamer assuming guys like Owens, Manning, C-Pep, etc. go before him...Do you think this represents good value or simply getting what you are paying for? Tiki going in rounds 4-5 isn't happening this year...

Shhhhh.... dont tell them that. Tiki won't make it out of the 2nd round in just about every draft this year I'm content with them thinking that he wil though.

Obviously you and I are in the same camp on this one, Tiki sitting around RB 16-18 depending on what shakes out in training camp both with the Giants and other situations.Time for a cold one, have a great weekend!

at first you say he won't make it out of the second round, but then you state that he will be RB 18. If he is RB 18 and Manning and CPep are taken in the first/second rounds, and Moss, Harrison, and TO are taken in the first/second rounds before him, that puts Barber very close to being taken in the third round with the 24th pick. considering chad johnson and torry holt are also going before the 24th overall pick in mocks this makes it even close to reality.

 

[jurb26]

The ADP I have seen for him is 2.05, which still has some value I think, or at worst is right on.  I don't think he is overvalued at all so far in mocks.

That puts him aound RB12-14 in a twelve teamer assuming guys like Owens, Manning, C-Pep, etc. go before him...Do you think this represents good value or simply getting what you are paying for? Tiki going in rounds 4-5 isn't happening this year...

Shhhhh.... dont tell them that. Tiki won't make it out of the 2nd round in just about every draft this year I'm content with them thinking that he wil though.

Obviously you and I are in the same camp on this one, Tiki sitting around RB 16-18 depending on what shakes out in training camp both with the Giants and other situations.Time for a cold one, have a great weekend!

at first you say he won't make it out of the second round, but then you state that he will be RB 18. If he is RB 18 and Manning and CPep are taken in the first/second rounds, and Moss, Harrison, and TO are taken in the first/second rounds before him, that puts Barber very close to being taken in the third round with the 24th pick. considering chad johnson and torry holt are also going before the 24th overall pick in mocks this makes it even close to reality.

I don't know how you are missing it, but what he is saying is that him and I are in the minority as we place Tiki at around the 16-18 RB. Most everyone else seems to think he is a top 10 guy top 15 at worst. Both he and I have him lower than that. It has nothing to do with ADP, only where we happen to rank him. The overridding point that I was getting at earlier is that HK and myself seem to be the ONLY ones that view Tiki low or to have a "down" year. If everyone sees great value in him, then come draft day he won't be had at great value. Which is being seen by his ADP as the #14 RB and 18th overall player. A guy who is a perenial top 15 RB drafted as the #14 RB is not great value. If he were being draft as the 20th or so, then I would agree. But he is not. He is being draft where he SHOULD be draft, not at great value. I certainly don't see many people (outside yourself) claiming Tiki to be a top 5 guy.

 

[joffer]

I certainly don't see many people (outside yourself) claiming Tiki to be a top 5 guy.

 

[BassNBrew]

2 Members: BassNBrew, H.K.

Keeping tabs on the competition...how championships are built~

 

[jurb26]

I certainly don't see many people (outside yourself) claiming Tiki to be a top 5 guy.

I'll assume that this makes 2 of you then.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

That puts him aound RB12-14 in a twelve teamer assuming guys like Owens, Manning, C-Pep, etc. go before him...Do you think this represents good value or simply getting what you are paying for?

Tiki going in rounds 4-5 isn't happening this year...

Getting what you pay for is sometimes the best and only move. Getting what you pay for is a heck of a lot better than getting less than you paid for. Tiki has been good for at least 15 the last 4 years and if you only have to get him at his lowest final ranking, that's value right there by not having to reach on someone else.

 

[Sidewinder16]

Article with Accorsi talking 'bout Barber and Jacobs.

I’m like anybody else, I’m just like the coaches, when the game is in a crucial situation, you want Tiki on the field.

But yes, I want to see Tiki get some rest. He has defied every theory about running backs that I have ever heard: that you get slower, you only last five years, you get less durable. He is more durable. He is faster and he is getting better. But we had better preserve him, too.

Accorsi shows his man-love for Jacobs, but he (and the coaches, apparently) obviously knows which side his bread is buttered on (Tiki's side, if you were wondering).Will Barber touch the ball less this season? Almost certainly. But you don't need 374 touches to be a top 10 back.Yes, I am a Tiki owner :hopespringseternal:

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Oh great, we're still talking about this...

I don't know how you are missing it, but what he is saying is that him and I are in the minority as we place Tiki at around the 16-18 RB. Most everyone else seems to think he is a top 10 guy top 15 at worst.

Apparently not.He's going 19th (RB15) overall according to MFL ADPs.

Antsports corroborates making him 18th overall (RB14).

So "most everyone else" does NOT have him as a top 10 overall pick.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Look at the obvious facts they overlooked:

1) Barber averages 6 TD's per year over 8 years of service

How long has Tiki been the undisputed starter? How many times has he had double digit TDs in that time?

He did not score TD's because he was the starter, he scored them because he got the ball at the stripe....which he won't this season.

They said the same thing last year. They were wrong then, too.

 

[H.K.]

Look at the obvious facts they overlooked:

1) Barber averages 6 TD's per year over 8 years of service

How long has Tiki been the undisputed starter? How many times has he had double digit TDs in that time?

He did not score TD's because he was the starter, he scored them because he got the ball at the stripe....which he won't this season.

They said the same thing last year. They were wrong then, too.

Last year has absolutely nothing to do with this year. In 2004 Ron Dayne was supposed to have a much more intregal role but he failed and the Giants had nobody else, thus Tiki got a TON of work in ALL situations. This season they have three or four other options (see article below ), and Barber will not be utilized in the same manner.

Giants:  RB Jacobs Could Be Much More Than Short Yardage Specialist

Blurb from a Michael Eisen story in Giants.com Q&A with GM Ernie Accorsi: 'He's (Brandon Jacobs) just an intriguing prospect. This isn't a lottery ticket here. This guy was highly-recruited to Auburn. He played well there. He ran into Williams and Brown. And I said several times during this post-draft period, Red Grange would have transferred if those two backs were with him. They were trying to make him something else. If you look at him, you can see he could have grown into a defensive end, a linebacker, a fullback, anything. He wanted to be a halfback. That was the key - that is an old term. But to try to be more specific, a halfback, that is what he is, that is what we drafted him as. Then he transferred to Southern Illinois, which had two other transfers that season. They would use all three of them. But he played the game - he rushed for over 900 yards, a 6.6-yard average, and 19 touchdowns. The one thing that everybody says he will solve your short yardage problem. You have 267 pounds, he should solve it. But he is much more than that. If you saw him out there at mini-camp, you saw a big, tall halfback. He is fast, he has got the moves, and he drops his weight. Everybody worries too much about a tall back, because a lot of times they run upright and are big targets. Well, (Hall of Famer Eric) Dickerson was tall, so I don't worry about it. There are always exceptions. The key is, do you run upright or are you able to drop your weight, which gives you the ability to change direction and cut. And he does. If you tried to put the blinders on and pretend, and not look at him in relation to the other players and see how big he is, if you know the game, you would know that he is a halfback, not a fullback. We didn't draft him as a fullback. Those guys are basically blockers who catch the ball in the flat. That is not what this guy is.

'So, now all of a sudden our running back situation - because we like (Derrick) Ward, we like (Mike) Cloud and we like Jacobs - is in pretty good shape. And the kid we signed out of Notre Dame (Ryan Grant) isn't a bust either. So we have big backs, finally. And he has an important role, because even Tiki said it publicly, 'If I am going to last, I have to get somebody to help me''

This is a great look into the potential of both Brandon Jacobs and a blurb about trying to save the wear and tear on Tiki Barber by giving him some rest.  Don't be surprised to see Jacobs get upwards of 100 carries this season in spelling the talented veteran.

 

[QuickDraw McGraw]

http://img181.echo.cx/img181/6322/05270514097pb.jpg

bump

 

[smcindoe]

This thread not being bumped all season until this week is a statistical impossibility.

 

[H.K.]

This thread not being bumped all season until this week is a statistical impossibility.

Nope, this thread has already been bumped, so it was obviously possible. However, Tiki still hasn't scored 11 this season, and he won't. It will never happen, guaranteed.

 

[ZJilla]

jurb with the self-owning in here.

 

[bagger.]

I agree with H.K. that Jacobs should steal a bunch of goalline carries from Tiki this year.

But, with enough carries, Tiki could still have a decent chance at 8-10 total TDs so I'm not sure I'd agree that 11 is "impossible". Brian Westbrook scored 11 TDs in 2003 without getting a ton of goalline work.

This is eerily reminiscent to the discussion that Ron Dayne was going to somehow take away fantasy production from Tiki last year. And yet Tiki gave drafters tremendous value.I'll believe that Mike f'ing Cloud will steal production away from Tiki when I see it.

I love Tiki. No matter how well he does every year he is projected by the majority of people to produce lower than he will.

Keep up this talk, I'll gladly take him at a cheaper price than I should be able to.

Yeah the value was great last year, but where was it the year before or in 2001?

In 2001 when he finished 14th, in 2002 when he finished 7th...what more do you want from the guy? He finished 2nd last year, but still gets no respect

lol exactly.Tiki is a perennial top 15 / top 10 back and many "sharks" here think that last year was the first time he did anything.

this is why i love Tiki...every year there is some excuse why he won't perform, and yet he does.

i can't wait until 2006 when bobo williams is the next fantasy vulture that will erode all of tiki's value.